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National Assessment Of Shoreline Change: Part 2, Historical Shoreline Changes And Associated Coastal Land Loss Along The U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This report on states comprising the Southeast Atlantic Coast (east Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina) represents the second in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico and will eventually include the Northeast Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. The report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, provides explanations regarding the historical and present trends and rates of change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. Shoreline change evaluations are based on comparing three historical shorelines with a recent shoreline derived from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical shorelines generally represent the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using four shorelines (1800s to lidar shoreline), whereas short-term rates of change are calculated for the most recent period (1970s to lidar shoreline). The historical rates of change presented in this report represent past conditions and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. Rates of erosion for the Southeast Atlantic region were generally highest in South Carolina along barrier islands and headland shores associated with the Santee delta. Erosion was also rapid along some barrier islands in North Carolina. Highest rates of erosion in Florida were generally localized around tidal inlets. The most stable Southeast Atlantic beaches were along the east coast of Florida where low wave energy and frequent beach nourishment minimized erosion. Some beach segments in Florida accreted as a result of net longshore drift convergence around Cape Canaveral and around tidal inlets that were stabilized by jetties. Seawalls, riprap revetments, and groins were constructed in all the Southeast Atlantic states as initial community responses to long-term beach erosion. Although some states, such as Florida, still permit shoreline stabilization structures, beach nourishment has become the preferred method of mitigating long-term erosion. Beach nourishment is common in all of the Southeast Atlantic states except Georgia.

southeast Atlantic coast

The National Assessment of Shoreline Change: A GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the sandy shorelines of the California coast

Introduction The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive data clearinghouse of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the sandy shoreline along the California open coast. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates of shorelines and shoreline change rates can be made at a National Scale. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the California coast is one in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast Atlantic Coast (Morton et al., 2004; Morton et al., 2005) and will eventually cover Washington, Oregon, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are determined by comparing the positions of three historical shorelines digitized from maps, with a modern shoreline derived from LIDAR (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time-periods: 1850s-1880s, 1920s-1930s, and late 1940s-1970s. The most recent shoreline is from data collected between 1997 and 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change of the California coastline at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1219/ for additional information regarding methods and results (Hapke et al., 2006). Data in this report are organized into downloadable layers by region (Northern, Central and Southern California) and are provided as vector datasets with metadata. Vector shorelines may represent a compilation of data from one or more sources and these sources are included in the dataset metadata. This project employs the Environmental Systems Research Institute's (ESRI) ArcGIS as it's GIS mapping tool and contains several data layers (shapefiles) that are used to create a geographic view of the California Coast. These vector data form a basemap comprised of polygon and line themes that include a U.S. coastline (1:80,000), U.S. cities, and state boundaries.

California

Coast Salish and U.S. Geological Survey 2009 Tribal Journey water quality project

The Salish Sea, contained within the United States and British Columbia, Canada, is the homeland of the Coast Salish Peoples and contains a diverse array of marine resources unique to this area that have sustained Coast Salish cultures and traditions for millennia. In July 2009, the Coast Salish People and U.S. Geological Survey conducted a second water quality study of the Salish Sea to examine spatial and temporal variability of environmental conditions of these surface waters as part of the annual Tribal Journey. Six canoes of approximately 100 towed multi parameter water-quality sondes as the Salish People traveled their ancestral waters during the middle of summer. Sea surface temperature, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity were measured simultaneously at ten-second intervals, and more than 54,000 data points spanning 1,300 kilometers of the Salish Sea were collected. The project also synthesized Coast Salish ecological knowledge and culture with scientific monitoring to better understand and predict the response of coastal habitats and marine resources. Comparisons with data collected in 2008 reveal significantly higher mean surface-water temperatures in most subbasins in 2009 linked to record air temperatures that affected the Pacific Northwest in July 2009. Through large-scale spatial measurements collected each summer, the project helps to identify patterns in summer water quality, areas of water-quality impairment, and trends occurring through time.

Salish Sea

The National assessment of shoreline change—A GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the Pacific Northwest coast

Sandy ocean beaches are a popular recreational destination and are often surrounded by communities that consist of valuable real estate. Development along sandy coastal areas is increasing despite the fact that coastal infrastructure may be repeatedly subjected to flooding and erosion. As a result, the demand for accurate information regarding past and present shoreline changes is increasing. Investigators with the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project have compiled a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and rates of shoreline change for the Pacific Northwest coast including the states of Washington and Oregon. No widely accepted standard for analyzing shoreline change currently exists. Current measurement and methods for calculating rates of change vary from study to study, precluding the combination of study results into statewide or regional assessments. The impetus behind the national assessment was to develop a standardized method that is consistent from coast to coast for measuring changes in shoreline position. The goal was to facilitate the process of periodically and systematically updating the measurements in an internally consistent manner. A detailed report on shoreline change for the Pacific Northwest coast that contains a discussion of the data presented here is available and cited in the Geospatial Data section of this report.

Oregon, Washington

National assessment of shoreline change: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the north coast of Alaska, U.S.-Canadian border to Icy Cape

The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is an area of strategic economic importance to the United States, is home to remote Native communities, and encompasses unique habitats of global significance. Coastal erosion along the Arctic coast is chronic, widespread, and may be accelerating, which threatens defense- and energy-related infrastructure, natural shoreline habitats, and Native communities. There is an increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present shoreline changes across the United States. To meet these national needs, the Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey is compiling existing reliable historical shoreline data along sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Alaska and Hawaii under the National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project (hereafter referred to as the "National Assessment project"; http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/shoreline-change/ ). A comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and rates of shoreline change for Alaska, from the U.S.-Canadian border to Icy Cape, is presented in this report as part of the National Assessment project. There is no widely accepted standard for analyzing shoreline change. Existing shoreline data measurements and rate calculation methods vary from study to study and prevent combining results into state-wide or regional assessments. The impetus behind the National Assessment project was to develop a standardized method of measuring changes in shoreline position that is consistent from coast to coast. The goal was to facilitate the process of periodically and systematically updating the results in an internally consistent manner. A detailed report on shoreline change for the north coast of Alaska that contains a discussion of the data presented here is available and cited in section, "Geospatial Data."

Alaska

National assessment of shoreline change: historical change along the north coast of Alaska, U.S.-Canadian border to Icy Cape

Beach erosion is a persistent problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. Along the Arctic coast of Alaska, coastal erosion is widespread, may be accelerating, and is threatening defense and energy-related infrastructure, coastal habitats, and Native communities. As coastal populations continue to expand and infrastructure and habitat are increasingly threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There also is a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline change with metrics that are consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along the open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline change so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. This report on shoreline change along the north coast of Alaska, between the U.S.-Canadian border and Icy Cape, is one in a series of regionally focused reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports for the coasts of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, the Southeast Atlantic, California, the New England and Mid-Atlantic, portions of Hawaii, and the Pacific Northwest coasts of Oregon and Washington. Similar to the earlier reports in this series, this report summarizes the methods of analysis, documents and describes the results of the analysis, and explains historical trends and rates of shoreline change. This Alaska shoreline change assessment differs from previously published shoreline change assessments in that: (1) only two historical shorelines (from the 1940s and 2000s eras) were available for the Alaska study area whereas four or more shorelines (from 1850 to 2002) were available for the other assessments and, thus, only end-point rates for one long-term analysis period are reported here, compared to a combination of long-term and short-term rates as reported in other studies; (2) modern (2000s era) shorelines in this study represent a visually derived land-water interface position versus an elevation based, tidally referenced shoreline position; and (3) both exposed open-ocean and sheltered mainland-lagoon shorelines and rates of change are included in this study compared to other locations where only exposed open-ocean sandy shorelines or bluff edges were evaluated. No distinction was made between sand or gravel beaches, and the base of the unconsolidated coastal bluff was considered the shoreline where no fronting beach existed.

Alaska

Storm-tide elevations produced by Hurricane Andrew along the southern Florida coasts, August 24, 1992

On August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew crossed southern peninsular Florida. The combined effects of storm surge from the hurricane and astronomical tide, referred to as storm tide, caused flooding over a large part of southern Florida. Subsequent to the flooding, many high-water marks were identified, described, and surveyed along the south- eastern coast of Florida (Miami to Key Largo) and at selected areas along the southwestern coast of Florida (Flamingo to Goodland). Descriptions of these 336 high-water makrs are presented in tabular form in this report and their locations are plotted on nineteen 7.5-minute topographic quadrangle maps. For the southeastern coast, north-south profiles of the high-water makrs along the outher and inner barrier islands and the western shoreline of Biscayne Bay are presented. Average storm-tide elevations (relative to sea level) ranged from 4 to 6 feet in northern Biscayne Bay, were as much as 17 feet on the western shoreline near the center of the bay and ranged from 3 to 6 feet in southern Biscayne Bay and Barnes Sound. Storm-tide elevations along the southwestern coast ranged from 4 to 5 feet at Flamingo and 5 to 7 feet at Goodland in the Ten Thousand Islands area.

Florida

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the South Coast Interior groundwater basins, 2008: California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Groundwater quality in the approximately 653-square-mile (1,691-square-kilometer) South Coast Interior Basins (SCI) study unit was investigated as part of the Priority Basin Project of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The South Coast Interior Basins study unit contains eight priority groundwater basins grouped into three study areas, Livermore, Gilroy, and Cuyama, in the Southern Coast Ranges hydrogeologic province. The GAMA Priority Basin Project is being conducted by the California State Water Resources Control Board in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The GAMA South Coast Interior Basins study was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of untreated (raw) groundwater quality within the primary aquifer system, as well as a statistically consistent basis for comparing water quality between basins. The assessment was based on water-quality and ancillary data collected by the USGS from 50 wells in 2008 and on water-quality data from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) database. The primary aquifer system was defined by the depth intervals of the wells listed in the CDPH database for the SCI study unit. The quality of groundwater in the primary aquifer system may be different from that in the shallower or deeper water-bearing zones; shallow groundwater may be more vulnerable to surficial contamination. The first component of this study, the status of the current quality of the groundwater resource, was assessed by using data from samples analyzed for volatile organic compounds (VOCs), pesticides, and naturally occurring inorganic constituents, such as trace elements and minor ions. This status assessment is intended to characterize the quality of groundwater resources within the primary aquifer system of the SCI study unit, not the treated drinking water delivered to consumers by water purveyors. Relative-concentrations (sample concentration divided by the health- or aesthetic-based benchmark concentration) were used for evaluating groundwater quality for those constituents that have Federal or California regulatory or non-regulatory benchmarks for drinking-water quality. A relative-concentration greater than 1.0 indicates a concentration greater than a benchmark, and a relative-concentration less than or equal to 1.0 indicates a concentration equal to or less than a benchmark. Relative-concentrations of organic constituents and special-interest constituents were classified as “high” (relative-concentration greater than 1.0), “moderate” (relative-concentration greater than 0.1 and less than or equal to 1.0), or “low” (relative-concentration less than or equal to 0.1). Relative-concentrations of inorganic constituents were classified as “high” (relative-concentration greater than 1.0), “moderate” (relative-concentration greater than 0.5 and less than or equal to 1.0), or “low” (relative-concentration less than or equal to 0.5). Aquifer-scale proportion was used as the primary metric in the status assessment for evaluating regional-scale groundwater quality. High aquifer-scale proportion is defined as the percentage of the area of the primary aquifer system with a relative-concentration greater than 1.0 for a particular constituent or class of constituents; percentage is based on an areal rather than a volumetric basis. Moderate and low aquifer-scale proportions were defined as the areal percentage of the primary aquifer system with moderate and low relative-concentrations, respectively. Two statistical approaches—grid-based and spatially weighted—were used to evaluate aquifer-scale proportions for individual constituents and classes of constituents. Grid-based and spatially weighted estimates were comparable in the SCI study unit (within 90-percent confidence intervals). Inorganic constituents (one or more) with health-based benchmarks were detected at high relative-concentrations in 29 percent of the primary aquifer system, at moderate relative-concentrations in 37 percent, and at low relative-concentrations in 34 percent. High aquifer-scale proportions of inorganic constituents primarily reflected high aquifer-scale proportions of nitrate (14 percent), boron (8.6 percent), molybdenum (8.6 percent), and arsenic (5.7 percent). In contrast, the relative-concentrations of organic constituents (one or more) were high in 1.6 percent, moderate in 2.0 percent, and low or not detected in 96 percent of the primary aquifer system. Of the 207 organic and special-interest constituents analyzed for, 15 constituents were detected. Perchlorate was found at moderate relative-concentrations in 34 percent of the aquifer. Two organic constituents were frequently detected (in greater than 10 percent of samples): the trihalomethane chloroform and the herbicide simazine. The second component of this study, the understanding assessment, identified natural and human factors that may have affected groundwater quality by evaluating land use, physical characteristics of the wells, and geochemical conditions of the aquifer. This evaluation was done by using statistical tests of correlations between these potential explanatory factors and water-quality data. Concentrations of arsenic, molybdenum, and manganese were generally greater in anoxic and pre-modern groundwater than other groundwater. In contrast, concentrations of nitrate and perchlorate were significantly higher in oxic and modern groundwater. Concentrations of simazine were greater in modern than pre-modern groundwater. Chloroform detections were positively correlated with greater urban land use. Boron concentrations and chloroform detections were higher in the Livermore study area than in the other study areas of the SCI; total dissolved solids and sulfate concentrations were greater in the Cuyama study area.

California

Arsenic and radionuclide occurrence and relation to geochemistry in groundwater of the Gulf Coast Aquifer System in Houston, Texas, 2007–11

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the City of Houston, began a study in 2007 to determine concentrations, spatial extent, and associated geochemical conditions that might be conducive for mobility and transport of selected naturally occurring trace elements and radionuclides in the Gulf Coast aquifer system in Houston, Texas. Water samples were collected from 91 municipal supply wells completed in the Evangeline and Chicot aquifers of the Gulf Coast aquifer system in northeastern, northwestern, and southwestern Houston; hereinafter referred to as northeast, northwest and southwest Houston areas. Wells were sampled in three phases: (1) 28 municipal supply wells were sampled during 2007–8, (2) 60 municipal supply wells during 2010, and (3) 3 municipal supply wells during December 2011. During each phase of sampling, samples were analyzed for major ions, selected trace elements, and radionuclides. At a subset of wells, concentrations of arsenic species and other radionuclides (carbon-14, radium-226, radium-228, radon-222, and tritium) also were analyzed. Selected physicochemical properties were measured in the field at the time each sample was collected, and oxidation-reduction potential and unfiltered sulfides also were measured at selected wells. The source-water (the raw, ambient water withdrawn from municipal supply wells prior to water treatment) samples were collected for assessment of aquifer conditions in order to provide community water-system operators information that could be important when they make decisions about which treatment processes to apply before distributing finished drinking water. Geochemical conditions of groundwater of the Gulf Coast aquifer system are suitable in some instances for release of arsenic and radionuclides from aquifer materials. Recent changes to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) primary drinking-water regulations for arsenic and a selected number of natural radionuclides have highlighted the necessity for municipal supply system managers to be aware of the occurrence and distribution of these constituents in their source water. Concentrations of arsenic ranged from 0.58 to 23.5 micrograms per liter (μg/L), with relatively low median and 75th percentile concentrations (2.7 and 3.6 μg/L, respectively). The gross alpha-particle activity completed within 72 hours after sample collection ranged from R-1.1 (nondetect where the result was below the sample specific critical level) to 39.7 picocuries per liter (pCi/L), with a median of 10.3 pCi/L. After 30 days, the gross alpha-particle activities in the 91 samples ranged from R-0.94 to 25.5 pCi/L, with a median of 5.60 pCi/L. Concentrations of uranium ranged from less than 0.02 to 42.7 μg/L, with a median value of 1.69 μg/L and a 75th-percentile value of 6.48 μg/L. The maximum concentrations of radium-226 and combined radium (sum of radium-226 plus radium-228) were 4.34 pCi/L and 3.23 pCi/L, respectively. Aquifer major-ion geochemistry was characterized and shown to contain three chemical types of water as grouped by a simplified predominant cation and anion classification system: (1) calcium- bicarbonate type, (2) sodium-bicarbonate type, and (3) sodium-chloride type. Aquifer geochemistry also was characterized into four reduction-oxidation (redox) categories: (1) oxic, (2) suboxic, (3) mixed, and (4) anoxic. Within the anoxic category, groundwater was further characterized into four presumed predominant reduction processes: (1) iron or sulfate or both [Fe(III)/SO 4 ] reducing, (2) iron [Fe(III)] reducing, (3) iron and sulfate [Fe(III)-SO 4 ] reducing, or (4) methanogenic, as defined by composition of redox species. The oxic category was associated with calcium-bicarbonate-type water, and the methanogenic-anoxic process was associated exclusively with the sodium-bicarbonate-type water. The species of arsenic and the dominant radionuclide present were associated with specific redox categories. Arsenate was associated primarily with oxic water and did not exceed 3.5 µg/L, whereas arsenite was associated with iron-reducing, anoxic water samples and, at the highest concentrations, occurred in sulfate-reducing, anoxic; methanogenic-anoxic; or both water samples. Uranium was associated exclusively with the oxic water, whereas the highest concentrations of combined radium were associated with the iron-reducing, anoxic water. The gross alpha-particle activity was greatest in the oxic waters where the source of the radioactivity was the uranium. Associated geochemical conditions conducive for mobility of arsenic and radionuclides and their spatial and vertical extent in the Gulf Coast aquifer system in Houston are important aspects to the areal management of the municipal groundwater supplies in Houston. Ongoing research is seeking to define chemical or geological factors that are the optimal indicators for elevated concentrations of these naturally occurring constituents.

Texas

Regional characterization of coal resources in the Gulf Coast Coal Region—In support of coal as a potential source for critical minerals and rare earth elements

There is increasing interest in extracting critical minerals (CM), including rare earth elements (REE), from coals in the United States to address the overreliance on imported REE. The Gulf Coast and the Fort Union regions are the two major lignite-bearing regions within the United States. Recent REE and CM studies of the lignite in these regions have indicated that the coals may be a viable source material for REE and CM extraction. To evaluate in-place coal as a potential source of REE and CM, the coal resources need to be quantified. This study presents the results of a regional analysis of Gulf Coast Coal Region lignite and bituminous coal resources that might be available as potential sources of REE and CM. The resource analysis used kriging methods to develop isopleth maps of cumulative coal thickness throughout the region using data from drill holes and measured mine and outcrop sections for a total of 31,181 data points. The estimated total remaining coal resource in the Gulf Coast Coal Region is about 83 billion metric tons in the upper 90 meters (approximately 300 feet) of the subsurface. The current estimate of remaining coal resources includes approximately 1.88 billion metric tons of coal that have been extracted in the region since 1983. Texas accounted for 39 percent (32 billion metric tons) of the remaining total resource, followed by Mississippi (24 percent, 20 billion metric tons ), Louisiana (14 percent, 12 billion metric tons), Tennessee (10 percent, 8.5 billion metric tons), and Arkansas (6 percent, 5.1 billion metric tons). Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, and Missouri each accounted for less than 5 percent of the total resource; Georgia had the smallest resource estimated at 7 million metric tons. Here we report the first known statewide lignite resource estimates for Georgia, Kentucky (820 million metric tons), and Missouri (1,800 million metric tons). A comparison of the results of this study with those of previous Gulf Coast Coal Region and Fort Union Coal Region resource studies is difficult because each study used different data sources, assessment methodologies, overburden depths, and qualifying coal thicknesses.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Lou

Geohydrology and simulated effects of withdrawals on the Miocene aquifer system in the Mississippi Gulf Coast area

Intense development of the Miocene aquifer system for water supplies along the Mississippi Gulf Coast has resulted in large water level declines that have altered the groundwater flow pattern in the area. Water levels in some Miocene aquifers have declined about 2 ft/year since 1940; declines exceed 100 ft (80 ft sea level) in large areas along the coast. Water levels in the surficial aquifer system, generally less than 20 ft below land surface, have not declined. The Miocene and younger interbedded and lenticular sands and clays crop out in southern Mississippi and dip to the south and southwest. These sediments have large vertical variations in head and locally respond to stresses as separate aquifers. Freshwater recharge to the Miocene aquifer system primarily is from rainfall on the surficial aquifers. The water generally moves to the south and southeast along the bedding planes toward the Mississippi Gulf Coast where the water is either withdrawn by wells, discharges to the ocean, or gradually percolates upward into overlying aquifers. Drawdowns caused by large groundwater withdrawals along the coast probably have resulted in the gradual movement of the saltwater toward the pumping centers. In parts of the Miocene aquifer system commonly used for water supplies, the water generally is a sodium bicarbonate type. Increasing chloride concentrations in a few wells indicate that saline water is migrating into parts of all layers in the Pascagoula area. A quasi three-dimensional numerical model of the groundwater flow system was constructed and calibrated on the basis of the both pre- and post-development conditions. The effects of an expected 1.5% annual increase in groundwater withdrawals during the period 1985-2005 were evaluated by the flow model. Additional water level declines expected by the year 2005 in response to estimated pumpage are as follows: Gulfport, 135 ft in layer 4; Biloxi-Gulfport area, 100 ft in layer 5 and 50 ft in layer 3; Pascagoula area, 40 ft in layer 6 and 30 ft in layer 4. The most serious threats of saltwater encroachment occur in layers 4, 5, and 6 (the 800-, 600- and 400-ft sands) in the Pascagoula area where contamination of the southern edges of the production areas is expected to occur in less than 10 years. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Evidence for marine-driven, cyclical fluctuations in burrow-nesting seabird habitat on the Oregon Coast

Seabirds are among the most threatened birds globally, with the loss or deterioration of coastal breeding habitats posing a severe threat. Natural and anthropogenic disturbances substantially influence coastal ecosystems through erosion and vegetation loss, altering habitat for the wildlife species that depend on them. In addition to these disturbances, oceanographic processes may play an important role in shaping the vegetation at breeding habitats; however, there is limited information on how vegetative conditions for burrow nesting seabirds have changed over time, and whether these changes are related to specific oceanographic or climatic factors. The Oregon Coast National Wildlife Refuge Complex, USA (NWRC) is home to a diverse suite of 1.3 million nesting seabirds from 14 species, which provide valuable ecological, economic, and cultural services, including nutrient transfer to terrestrial habitats and ecotourism for local communities. Over the last 30 years, populations of several burrow nesting seabird species including tufted puffin ( Fratercula cirrhata ) and rhinoceros auklet ( Cerorhinca monocerata ), which breed on offshore islands, have sharply declined along the Oregon Coast. To better understand the potential factors driving these declines, we conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of an aspect of burrow nesting seabird habitat, vegetation cover, within the Oregon Coast NWRC. Specifically, we quantified vegetative cover on 16 islands from 1992 to 2022 using a combination of empirical data, historical aerial photography (1992–2005), and aerial photography from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (2005–2022). Results showed cyclical fluctuations in vegetation cover coast-wide, which were closely related to large scale oceanographic oscillations. Specifically, vegetation cover was negatively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation and positively correlated with the spring El Nino Southern Oscillation. We did not directly compare seabird population trends to vegetation trends; however, quantifying these long-term changes in vegetation at breeding habitats can contribute to our comprehensive understanding of the myriad factors influencing seabird population dynamics and conservation.

Oregon

Coast salish and U.S. Geological Survey: Tribal journey water quality project

The ancestral waters of the Coast Salish People, the Salish Sea, comprise a large inland sea contained within both United States (Puget Sound) and Canadian (Georgia Strait) territory. The Salish Sea is home to more than 220 species of fish, 29 species of marine mammals, more than 40 species of commercial and recreationally harvested invertebrates, and numerous resident and migratory bird species (Washington Sea Grant Program, 2000). Unfortunately, at least 60 of these marine based species are listed as threatened, endangered or of concern (Fraser and others, 2006), many of which sustained Coast Salish for millennia and are of essential cultural importance. The cumulative impacts of human activities and climate change are deteriorating coastal ecosystems and accelerating the loss of ecologically and culturally important marine resources. Watershed modifications, coastal development and industrial activities are altering river and tidal flow, sediment transport, and nutrient delivery all across the region, leading to the break down of ecosystem functions and decreasing biodiversity, thus changing the face of the Salish Sea. A cooperative trans-boundary partnership between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the Government of Canada has identified Salish Sea indicators of health. Several of these indicators have been noted as having degrading quality including urbanization and forest change, river, stream, and lake quality, marine species at risk, toxics in harbor seals, and marine water quality conditions (USEPA, 2008). The functioning of the Salish Sea ecosystem is increasingly threatened by ever more frequent observations and expanding zones of anoxia. The complexities of monitoring, protecting, and restoring such a large and diverse geographical area are exacerbated by a political border. The Coast Salish Peoples and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have commenced on a partnership to examine water quality throughout the Georgia Straits and Puget Sound, blending tradition and science, in response to this deterioration of coastal environments and loss of essential habitats and marine resources of cultural and ecological importance throughout the ancestral waters of the Salish Sea. This report describes the Coast Salish Tribal Journey Water Quality Project, its inception, the results of the 2008 Tribal Journey project, lessons learned, and recommendations for future directions.

Report

Preliminary evaluation of the shale gas prospectivity of the Lower Cretaceous Pearsall Formation in the onshore Gulf Coast region, United States

Recent work by the U.S. Geological Survey indicated that the Lower Cretaceous Pearsall Formation contains an estimated mean undiscovered, technically recoverable unconventional gas resource of 8.8 trillion cubic ft in the Maverick Basin, South Texas. Cumulative gas production from horizontal wells in the core area of the emerging play has exceeded 5 billion cubic ft since 2008. However, very little information is available to characterize the Pearsall Formation as an unconventional gas resource beyond the Maverick Basin in the greater Gulf Coast region. Therefore, this reconnaissance study examines spatial distribution, thickness, organic richness and thermal maturity of the Pearsall Formation in the onshore U.S. Gulf states using wireline logs and drill cuttings sample analysis. Spontaneous potential and resistivity curves of approximately forty wireline logs from wells in five Gulf Coast states were correlated to ascertain the thickness of the Pearsall Formation and delineate its three members: Pine Island Shale, James Limestone or Cow Creek Limestone, and Bexar Shale, in ascending stratigraphic order. In Florida and Alabama the Pearsall Formation is up to about 300 ft thick; in Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and East Texas, thickness is up to as much as 800 ft. Drill cuttings sampled from 11 wells at depths ranging from 4600 to 19,600 feet subsurface indicate increasingly oxygenated depositional environments (predominance of red shale) towards the eastern part of the basin. Cuttings vary widely in lithology but indicate interbedded clastics and limestones throughout the Pearsall Formation, consistent with previous regional studies. Organic petrographic and geochemical analyses of 17 cutting samples in the Pearsall Formation indicate a wide range in thermal maturity, from immature (0.43% Ro [vitrinite reflectance]) in paleo-high structural locations to the peak oil window (0.99% Ro) in the eastern portion of the Gulf Coast Basin. This is in contrast to dry gas thermal maturity throughout the Pearsall Formation in the South Texas Maverick Basin. Organic carbon content is low overall, even in immature samples, with a range of 0.17 to 1.08 wt.% by Leco in 22 Pearsall Formation samples. The pyrolysis output range was 0.23 to 2.33 mg hydrocarbon/g rock. The thermal maturity and Rock-Eval pyrolysis data and organic petrologic observations from this study will be used to better focus specific areas of investigation where the Pearsall Formation may be prospective as an unconventional hydrocarbon source and reservoir.

Alabama;Arkansas;Louisiana;Mississippi;Oklahoma;Te

Black Scoter habitat use along the southeastern coast of the United States

While the Atlantic Coast of the United States and Canada is a major wintering area for sea ducks, knowledge about their wintering habitat use is relatively limited. Black Scoters have a broad wintering distribution and are the only open water species of sea duck that is abundant along the southeastern coast of the United States. Our study identified variables that affected Black Scoter ( Melanitta americana ) distribution and abundance in the Atlantic Ocean along the southeastern coast of the United States. We used aerial survey data from 2009 to 2012 provided by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service to identify variables that influenced Black Scoter distribution. We used indicator variable selection to evaluate relationships between Black Scoter habitat use and a variety of broad- and fine-scale oceanographic and weather variables. Average time between waves, ocean floor slope, and the interaction of bathymetry and distance to shore had the strongest association with southeastern Black Scoter distribution.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina,

Uranium-Series Ages of Marine Terrace Corals from the Pacific Coast of North America and Implications for Last-Interglacial Sea Level History

Few of the marine terraces along the Pacific coast of North America have been dated using uranium-series techniques. Ten terrace sequences from southern Oregon to southern Baja California Sur have yielded fossil corals in quantities suitable for U-series dating by alpha spectrometry. U-series-dated terraces representing the ???80,000 yr sea-level high stand are identified in five areas (Bandon, Oregon; Point Arena, San Nicolas Island, and Point Loma, California; and Punta Banda, Baja California); terraces representing the ???125,000 yr sea-level high stand are identified in eight areas (Cayucos, San Luis Obispo Bay, San Nicolas Island, San Clemente Island, and Point Loma, California; Punta Bands and Isla Guadalupe, Baja California; and Cabo Pulmo, Baja California Sur). On San Nicolas Island, Point Loma, and Punta Bands, both the ???80,000 and the ???125,000 yr terraces are dated. Terraces that may represent the ???105,000 sea-level high stand are rarely preserved and none has yielded corals for U-series dating. Similarity of coral ages from midlatitude, erosional marine terraces with coral ages from emergent, constructional reefs on tropical coastlines suggests a common forcing mechanism, namely glacioeustatically controlled fluctuations in sea level superimposed on steady tectonic uplift. The low marine terrace dated at ???125,000 yr on Isla Guadalupe, Baja California, presumed to be tectonically stable, supports evidence from other localities for a +6-m sea level at that time. Data from the Pacific Coast and a compilation of data from other coasts indicate that sea levels at ???80,000 and ???105,000 yr may have been closer to present sea level (within a few meters) than previous studies have suggested.

Quaternary Research

Evidence of regional subsidence and associated interior wetland loss induced by hydrocarbon production, Gulf Coast region, USA

Analysis of remote images, elevation surveys, stratigraphic cross-sections, and hydrocarbon production data demonstrates that extensive areas of wetland loss in the northern Gulf Coast region of the United States were associated with large-volume fluid production from mature petroleum fields. Interior wetland losses at many sites in coastal Louisiana and Texas are attributed largely to accelerated land subsidence and fault reactivation induced by decreased reservoir pressures as a result of rapid or prolonged extraction of gas, oil, and associated brines. Evidence that moderately-deep hydrocarbon production has induced land-surface subsidence and reactivated faults that intersect the surface include: (1) close temporal and spatial correlation of fluid production with surficial changes including rapid subsidence of wetland sediments near producing fields, (2) measurable offsets of shallow strata across the zones of wetland loss, (3) large reductions in subsurface pressures where subsidence rates are high, (4) coincidence of orientation and direction of displacement between surface fault traces and faults that bound the reservoirs, and (5) accelerated subsidence rates near producing fields compared to subsidence rates in surrounding areas or compared to geological rates of subsidence. Based on historical trends, subsidence rates in the Gulf Coast region near producing fields most likely will decrease in the future because most petroleum fields are nearly depleted. Alternatively, continued extraction of conventional energy resources as well as potential production of alternative energy resources (geopressured-geothermal fluids) in the Gulf Coast region could increase subsidence and land losses and also contribute to inundation of areas of higher elevation. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

Environmental Geology

Foundations of modeling resilience of tidal saline wetlands to sea-level rise along the U.S. Pacific Coast

Context Tidal saline wetlands (TSWs) are highly threatened from climate-change effects of sea-level rise. Studies of TSWs along the East Coast U.S. and elsewhere suggest significant likely losses over coming decades but needed are analytic tools gauged to Pacific Coast U.S. wetlands. Objectives We predict the impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on the elevation capital (vertical) and migration potential (lateral) resilience of TSWs along the Pacific Coast U.S. over the period 2020 to 2150 under a 1.5-m SLR scenario, and identified TSWs at risk of most rapid loss of resilience. Here, we define vertical resilience as the amount of elevation capital and lateral resilience as the amount of TSW displacement area relative to existing area. Methods We used Bayesian network (BN) modeling to predict changes in resilience of TSWs as probabilities which can be useful in risk analysis and risk management. We developed the model using a database sample of 26 TSWs with 147 sediment core samples, among 16 estuary drainage areas along coastal California, Oregon, and Washington. Results We found that all TSW sites would lose at least 50% of their elevation capital resilience by 2060 to just before 2100, and 100% by 2070 to 2130, depending on the site. Under a 1.5-m sea-level rise scenario, nearly all sites in California will lose most or all of their lateral migration resilience. Resilience losses generally accelerated over time. In the BN model, elevation capital resilience is most sensitive to elevation capital at time t, mean tide level at time t, and change in sea level from time 0 to time t. Conclusions All TSW sites were projected with declines in resilience. Our model can further aid decision-making such as prioritizing sites for potential management adaptation strategies. We also identified variables most influencing resilience predictions and thus those potentially prioritized for monitoring or development of strategies to prevent loss regionally.

California, Oregon, Washington