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USGS2022

Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States

This report and accompanying datasets from the U.S. Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force provide 1) sea level rise scenarios to 2150 by decade that include estimates of vertical land motion and 2) a set of extreme water level probabilities for various heights along the U.S. coastline. These data are available at 1-degree grids along the U.S. coastline and downscaled specifically at NOAA tide-gauge locations. Estimates of flood exposure are assessed using contemporary U.S. coastal flood-severity thresholds for current conditions (e.g., sea levels and infrastructure footprint) and for the next 30 years (out to year 2050), assuming no additional risk reduction measures are enacted. This effort builds upon the 2017 Task Force report (Sweet et al., 2017). In particular, the set of global mean sea level rise scenarios from that report are updated and downscaled with output directly from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6; IPCC, 2021a), through the efforts of the NASA Sea Level Change Team; updates include adjustments to the temporal trajectories and exceedance probabilities of these scenarios based upon end-of-century global temperatures. As with the 2017 report, these global mean sea level rise scenarios are regionalized for the U.S. coastline. In addition, methodology supporting the U.S. Department of Defense Regional Sea Level (DRSL) database (Hall et al., 2016) is adapted for the extreme water level dataset newly developed for this report. This report will be a key technical input for the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5). These data and information are being incorporated into current and planned agency tools and services, such as NOAA’s Sea Level Rise Viewer and Inundation Dashboard, NASA’s Sea Level Change Portal, and others. Although the intent of this report is not to provide authoritative guidance or design specifications for a specific project, it is intended to help inform Federal agencies, state and local governments, and stakeholders in coastal communities about current and future sea level rise to help contextualize its effects for decision-making purposes.

Technical Report↗

USGS2016

Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and therefore erosion and flooding, through consideration of a wide range of univariate distribution functions and multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we explore how different our interpretation of the present-day erosion/flooding risk could be if we had seen more or fewer extreme realizations of individual and combinations of parameters in the past by simulating 10,000 physically and statistically consistent sea-storm time series. We find that seasonal total water levels associated with the 100 year return period could be up to 3 m higher in summer and 0.6 m higher in winter relative to our best estimate based on the observational records. Impact hours of collision and overwash—where total water levels exceed the dune toe or dune crest elevations—could be on average 70% (collision) and 100% (overwash) larger than inferred from the observations. Our model accounts for non-stationarity in a straightforward, non-parametric way that can be applied (with little adjustments) to many other coastlines. The probabilistic model presented here, which accounts for observational uncertainty, can be applied to other coastlines where short record lengths limit the ability to identify the full range of possible wave and water level conditions that coastal mangers and planners must consider to develop sustainable management strategies.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2016

Subsea ice-bearing permafrost on the U.S. Beaufort Margin: 2. Borehole constraints

Borehole logging data from legacy wells directly constrain the contemporary distribution of subsea permafrost in the sedimentary section at discrete locations on the U.S. Beaufort Margin and complement recent regional analyses of exploration seismic data to delineate the permafrost's offshore extent. Most usable borehole data were acquired on a ∼500 km stretch of the margin and within 30 km of the contemporary coastline from north of Lake Teshekpuk to nearly the U.S.-Canada border. Relying primarily on deep resistivity logs that should be largely unaffected by drilling fluids and hole conditions, the analysis reveals the persistence of several hundred vertical meters of ice-bonded permafrost in nearshore wells near Prudhoe Bay and Foggy Island Bay, with less permafrost detected to the east and west. Permafrost is inferred beneath many barrier islands and in some nearshore and lagoonal (back-barrier) wells. The analysis of borehole logs confirms the offshore pattern of ice-bearing subsea permafrost distribution determined based on regional seismic analyses and reveals that ice content generally diminishes with distance from the coastline. Lacking better well distribution, it is not possible to determine the absolute seaward extent of ice-bearing permafrost, nor the distribution of permafrost beneath the present-day continental shelf at the end of the Pleistocene. However, the recovery of gas hydrate from an outer shelf well (Belcher) and previous delineation of a log signature possibly indicating gas hydrate in an inner shelf well (Hammerhead 2) imply that permafrost may once have extended across much of the shelf offshore Camden Bay.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗

USGS2017

A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21 st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

California↗

USGS2018

Processes and facies relationships in a Lower(?) Devonian rocky shoreline depositional environment, East Lime Creek Conglomerate, south‐western Colorado, USA

Rocky shorelines are relatively common features along modern coastlines, but few have been recognized in the geological record. The hard substrates of rocky shorelines telescope the width of offshore marine environments, thus the diagnostic deposits observed in such settings today have a low preservation potential due to small accommodation space and high‐energy conditions. This study recognized previously overlooked, laterally extensive Lower(?) Devonian rocky shoreline deposits in the San Juan Mountains of south‐western Colorado. The newly defined lithostratigraphic unit, the East Lime Creek Conglomerate (ELCC), is 0–23 m thick, unconformably overlying Proterozoic crystalline rocks and unconformably overlain by the Upper Devonian Ignacio Formation and/or Elbert Formation. The unit mostly consists of clast‐supported cobble‐boulder conglomerate with rounded quartzite clasts up to 1.4 m in length interbedded with thin sandstone layers and lenses. Sandstones in the ELCC are distinguished from unconformably overlying Upper Devonian sedimentary rocks because they have sericite cements. Most importantly, there are buttressing relationships between the ELCC and underlying Proterozoic crystalline rocks interpreted as palaeo‐sea cliffs, palaeo‐wave‐cut platforms and palaeo‐tombolos. A proposed rocky shoreline facies model includes headlands with upper shoreface‐beachface tabular cobble‐boulder gravels sourced from rock fall talus, nearshore subaqueous debris‐flow deposits and intervening pocket beaches with imbricated, stratified pebble‐cobble gravel sheets. Palaeocurrent data ( n = 338) from clast long‐axis orientations, imbrication and cross‐bedding indicate south‐to‐north transport roughly onshore‐offshore to a coastline consisting of alternating rocky headlands and pocket beaches. This Lower(?) Devonian unit documents a previously unrecognized episode in the geological history of south‐western Colorado.

Colorado↗

USGS2005

Estimation of regional material yield from coastal landslides based on historical digital terrain modelling

High-resolution historical (1942) and recent (1994) digital terrain models were derived from aerial photographs along the Big Sur coastline in central California to measure the long-term volume of material that enters the nearshore environment. During the 52-year measurement time period, an average of 21 000 ?? 3100 m3 km-1 a-1 of material was eroded from nine study sections distributed along the coast, with a low yield of 1000 ?? 240 m3 km-1 a-1 and a high of 46 700 ?? 7300 m3 km-1 a-1. The results compare well with known volumes from several deep-seated landslides in the area and suggest that the processes by which material is delivered to the coast are episodic in nature. In addition, a number of parameters are investigated to determine what influences the substantial variation in yield along the coast. It is found that the magnitude of regional coastal landslide sediment yield is primarily related to the physical strength of the slope-forming material. Coastal Highway 1 runs along the lower portion of the slope along this stretch of coastline, and winter storms frequently damage the highway. The California Department of Transportation is responsible for maintaining this scenic highway while minimizing the impacts to the coastal ecosystems that are part of the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary. This study provides environmental managers with critical background data on the volumes of material that historically enter the nearshore from landslides, as well as demonstrating the application of deriving historical digital terrain data to model landscape evolution. Published in 2005 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗

USGS2020

Trends in oyster populations in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico: An assessment of river discharge and fishing effects over time and space

Within the Big Bend region of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, one of the least developed coastlines in the continental USA, intertidal and subtidal populations of eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica (hereafter referred to as “oyster”) are a critical ecosystem and important economic constituent. We assessed trends in intertidal oyster populations, river discharge, and commercial fishing activity in the Suwannee River estuary within the Big Bend region using fisheries‐independent data from irregular monitoring efforts and publicly available environmental data. We used generalized linear models to evaluate counts of oysters from line‐transect surveys over time and space. We assessed model performance using simulation to understand potential bias and then evaluated whether these counts were related to freshwater inputs from the Suwannee River and commercial oyster fishing effort and landings at different time lags. We found that intertidal oyster counts have declined over time and that most of these declines are found in inshore intertidal oyster bars, which are becoming degraded. We also found a significant relationship between oyster counts and a 1‐year lag on mean daily Suwannee River discharge, but including commercial fishery trips or landings did not improve model fit. It is unclear whether declines in intertidal oyster bars are offset by formation of new oyster reefs elsewhere. These results quantify rapid declines in intertidal oyster reefs in a region of coastline with high conservation value that can be used to inform ongoing and proposed restoration projects in the region.

Florida↗

USGS1996

Source parameters controlling the generation and propagation of potential local tsunamis along the cascadia margin

The largest uncertainty in assessing hazards from local tsunamis along the Cascadia margin is estimating the possible earthquake source parameters. We investigate which source parameters exert the largest influence on tsunami generation and determine how each parameter affects the amplitude of the local tsunami. The following source parameters were analyzed: (1) type of faulting characteristic of the Cascadia subduction zone, (2) amount of slip during rupture, (3) slip orientation, (4) duration of rupture, (5) physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and (6) influence of secondary faulting. The effect of each of these source parameters on the quasi-static displacement of the ocean floor is determined by using elastic three-dimensional, finite-element models. The propagation of the resulting tsunami is modeled both near the coastline using the two-dimensional ( x-t ) Peregrine equations that includes the effects of dispersion and near the source using the three-dimensional ( x-y-t ) linear long-wave equations. The source parameters that have the largest influence on local tsunami excitation are the shallowness of rupture and the amount of slip. In addition, the orientation of slip has a large effect on the directivity of the tsunami, especially for shallow dipping faults, which consequently has a direct influence on the length of coastline inundated by the tsunami. Duration of rupture, physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and secondary faulting all affect the excitation of tsunamis but to a lesser extent than the shallowness of rupture and the amount and orientation of slip. Assessment of the severity of the local tsunami hazard should take into account that relatively large tsunamis can be generated from anomalous ‘tsunami earthquakes’ that rupture within the accretionary wedge in comparison to interplate thrust earthquakes of similar magnitude.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2014

Identifying hazards associated with lava deltas

Lava deltas, formed where lava enters the ocean and builds a shelf of new land extending from the coastline, represent a significant local hazard, especially on populated ocean island volcanoes. Such structures are unstable and prone to collapse—events that are often accompanied by small explosions that can deposit boulders and cobbles hundreds of meters inland. Explosions that coincide with collapses of the East Lae ‘Apuki lava delta at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, during 2005–2007 followed an evolutionary progression mirroring that of the delta itself. A collapse that occurred when the lava–ocean entry was active was associated with a blast of lithic blocks and dispersal of spatter and fine, glassy tephra. Shortly after delta growth ceased, a collapse exposed hot rock to cold ocean water, resulting in an explosion composed entirely of lithic blocks and lapilli. Further collapse of the delta after several months of inactivity, by which time it had cooled significantly, resulted in no recognizable explosion deposit. Seaward displacement and subsidence of the coastline immediately inland of the delta was measured by both satellite and ground-based sensors and occurred at rates of several centimeters per month even after the lava–ocean entry had ceased. The anomalous deformation ended only after complete collapse of the delta. Monitoring of ground deformation may therefore provide an indication of the potential for delta collapse, while the hazard associated with collapse can be inferred from the level of activity, or the time since the last activity, on the delta.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2024

Detecting trajectories of regime shifts and loss of resilience in coastal wetlands using remote sensing

Many freshwater forested wetlands along the southeastern United States coastline are rapidly transitioning from forest to marsh or open water, due to climate change-related disturbances. Recent studies have found early warning signals (EWS) of regime shifts in other ecosystems, but it is unclear if these can be detected for coastal wetlands. In this study, we examined the ability to detect EWS of regime shifts in coastal wetlands within the Albemarle Pamlico peninsula (APP), North Carolina, U.S.A. We used the Landsat record (1985–2021) to examine trends of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series for selected areas known to have undergone regime shifts. We found that while 77% of the APP was either stable or revegetating, 22% of the landscape underwent a decrease in NDVI that would indicate a transition from forest to marsh or open water. Of the areas that transitioned, about half (11%) experienced an abrupt decrease in NDVI and 10% experienced a gradual decline. Increasing standard deviation and skewness of time series could serve as EWS of abrupt transitions, but can also provide false negative and positives. Our results suggest that ecosystem transitions from a forest to a marsh or open water can occur both rapidly and slowly, and remote sensing of NDVI time series can help identify EWS for some areas, but not all. Our results allow for prioritization of conservation/restoration of coastlines which will become important in the face of climate change and sea level rise.

North Carolina↗

USGS2021

Late Holocene environmental change in Celestun Lagoon, Yucatan, Mexico

Epikarst estuary response to hydroclimate change remains poorly understood, despite the well-studied link between climate and karst groundwater aquifers. The influence of sea-level rise and coastal geomorphic change on these estuaries obscures climate signals, thus requiring careful development of paleoenvironmental histories to interpret the paleoclimate archives. We used foraminifera assemblages, carbon stable isotope ratios (δ 13 C) and carbon:nitrogen (C:N) mass ratios of organic matter in sediment cores to infer environmental changes over the past 5300 years in Celestun Lagoon, Yucatan, Mexico. Specimens (> 125 µm) from modern core top sediments revealed three assemblages: (1) a brackish mangrove assemblage of agglutinated Miliammina and Ammotium taxa and hyaline Haynesina (2) an inner-shelf marine assemblage of Bolivina , Hanzawaia , and Rosalina, and (3) a brackish assemblage dominated by Ammonia and Elphidium . Assemblages changed along the lagoon channel in response to changes in salinity and vegetation, i.e. seagrass and mangrove. In addition to these three foraminifera assemblages, lagoon sediments deposited since 5300 cal yr BP are comprised of two more assemblages, defined by Archaias and Laevipeneroplis, which indicate marine Thalassia seagrasses, and Trichohyalus, which indicates restricted inland mangrove ponds. Our data suggest that Celestun Lagoon displayed four phases of development: (1) an inland mangrove pond (5300 BP) (2) a shallow unprotected coastline with marine seagrass and barrier island initiation (4900 BP) (3) a protected brackish lagoon (3000 BP), and (4) a protected lagoon surrounded by mangroves (1700 BP). Stratigraphic (temporal) changes in core assemblages resemble spatial differences in communities across the modern lagoon, from the southern marine sector to the northern brackish region. Similar temporal patterns have been reported from other Yucatan Peninsula lagoons and from cenotes (Nichupte, Aktun Ha), suggesting a regional coastal response to sea level rise and climate change, including geomorphic controls (longshore drift) on lagoon salinity, as observed today. Holocene barrier island development progressively protected the northwest Yucatan Peninsula coastline, reducing mixing between seawater and rain-fed submarine groundwater discharge. Superimposed on this geomorphic signal, assemblage changes that are observed reflect the most severe regional wet and dry climate episodes, which coincide with paleoclimate records from lowland lake archives (Chichancanab, Salpeten). Our results emphasize the need to consider coastal geomorphic evolution when using epikarst estuary and lagoon sediment archives for paleoclimate reconstruction and provide evidence of hydroclimate changes on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Yucatan, Celestun Lagoon↗

USGS2026

Effects of storm surge exceedance value on overwash and inundation forecasts

Hurricane induced sediment transport and flooding can cause catastrophic damage to coastal communities. Forecasts test our understanding of the drivers of sediment transport and flooding, as well as quantify potential storm effects on coastlines. Real-time availability of forecasts allows emergency response and management decisions to be made with additional information. This study analyzed the skill of probabilistic forecasts of overwash and inundation along the Louisiana coastline from back-to-back Hurricanes Laura and Delta in 2020. To test skill, forecasts were compared with observations of mean water level relative to beach elevations and evidence of overwash and inundation identified in post-storm aerial imagery. We found that probabilistic forecasts accurately identified areas where overwash and inundation were likely to occur. In some cases, forecasts also produced a conservative estimation of overwash and inundation. For the first time, we explored the role of exceedance value in probabilistic forecasts of overwash and inundation and found that choice of exceedance value can influence forecasts. Additionally, we found that waves contributed up to 27% of the mean water level and up to 63% of the extreme water level during Hurricanes Laura and Delta.

Louisiana, Texas↗

USGS1983

K-Ar ages and the opening of the South Atlantic Ocean: Basaltic rock from the Brazilian margin

New K-Ar ages for 13 samples of basalt, gabbro, wehrlite, and trachyandesite drilled from the Brazilian continental shelf and coastline yield information about the timing of the opening of the South Atlantic and the nature of the crust seaward from the Brazil margin. The oldest basalt is 138.1 ± 3.5 m.y. "> 138.1 ± 3.5m.y. old and from offshore at 24.5°S; it represents Serra Geral flood basalt on attenuated crust in the Santos basin. Basalts from the coastline at 19.5°S are mixed with terrigenous graben sediments, and their ages confirm that rifting was underway before 130 m.y. Offshore sites in the Campos basin, ∼22°–23°S, 41°W, have basalt ranging from 124 to 112 m.y. in age and mostly continental flood basalt in composition. One 112-m.y. basalt, however, is MORB-like and could therefore represent oceanic lithosphere mixed with continental crust about 50 km from the shoreline at ∼22.5°S. Other samples reveal compositionally varied intraplate, passive-margin magmatism occurring 75-43 m.y. ago. They correlate with profuse contemporary alkalic magmatism on the southeastern Brazil coast and probably represent reactivation of zones of “weakness” (i.e., fracture zone-lineaments).

Marine Geology↗

USGS1990

Coastal retreat and shoreface profile variations in the Canadian Beaufort Sea

The coastline of the southern Canadian Beaufort Sea consists primarily of unconsolidated bluffs. Although the sea is ice-free for 3 months of the year and wave energy is restricted by pack ice, the coast is undergoing regional retreat with erosion rates as high as 10 m a −1 in some locations. Simple and multiple regression analyses were carried out to determine the degree of correlation between the mean retreat rate measured at various locations and the different parameters that may control shoreline recession. Sediment texture, ground-ice content, cliff height, wave energy and shoreface gradient revealed medium to poor correlation with erosion rates, showing that the recessive evolution of the coastline can not be explained solely by wave-induced and subaerial processes. The comparison of nearshore echo-sounding records from 1987 with bathymetry from 1971 showed substantial erosion (up to 1 m) of the submarine profile between 12 and 15 m of water. There is strong evidence that this erosion has been caused by sea ice gouging on the seafloor. From depths of 5 to 9 m, accretion has taken place, possibly induced by ice-push processes, and inshore of the 5 m isobath wave and current erosion of the shoreface has occurred. These results suggest that the erosion of the inner shelf by ice gouging drives the erosion observed inshore on the coastal bluffs and nearshore zone as the shoreface profile strives for a state of dynamic equilibrium.

Marine Geology↗

USGS1991

Shoreline deposits and diagenesis resulting from two Late Pleistocene highstands near +5 and +6 metres, Durban, South Africa

In exposures of Pleistocene rocks on the east coast of South Africa, eight sedimentary facies were distinguished on the basis of petrology, grain size, internal structures and field relationships. These are interpreted as deposits of surf zone, breaker zone, swash zone, backbeach, boulder beach and dune environments. Three phases of deposition and diagenesis are recognized. As a result of the stabilising effect of pre-existing coastal facies, the deposits from successive sea level stands are stacked vertically in a narrow coast-normal strip. Early cementation prevented erosion of the deposits during subsequent transgressions. Deposition of subsequent facies took place on an existing coastal dune (Facies 1). A terrace was cut into this dune at a sea level 4.5 to 5 m above present. At this sea level, clastic shoreline sediments were deposited which make up the main sedimentary sequence exposed (Facies 2–7). The steep swash zone, coarse grain size, and comparison with modern conditions in the study area indicate clastic deposition on a high-energy, wave-dominated, microtidal coastline. Vertical stacking of progressively shallower water facies indicates progradation associated with slightly regressive conditions, prior to stranding of the succession above sea level. During a subsequent transgression to 5.5 or 6 m above present sea level, a second terrace was cut across the existing facies, which by then were partly lithified. A boulder beach (Facies 8) deposited on this terrace is indicative of high wave energy and a rocky coastline, formed by existing cemented coastal facies. Comparison with dated deposits from other parts of the South African coast suggest a Late Pleistocene age for Facies 2–8. Deposition was terminated by subsequent regression and continuing low sea levels during the remainder of the Pleistocene. Cementation of the facies took place almost entirely by carbonate precipitation. The presence of isopachous fibrous cements suggests early cementation of Facies 1, 2, 3 and 4 under marine conditions, initially as aragonite which has since inverted to calcite. Facies 5, 6 and 7 are cemented only by equant calcite spar, evidence of cementation in the meteoric phreatic and vadose zones. Lowering of the water table during regression caused the remaining pore space in Facies 1, 2, 3 and 4 to be filled with equant calcite spar. Decementation in a 130 cm wide zone is attributed to water table shifts associated with the later transgression which deposited Facies 8. The vertical stacking of the two depositional sequences may be attributed to rapid cementation of Facies 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 under humid, subtropical conditions. This lithified sequence then acted as a focus for deposition of coarse-grained shoreline facies (Facies 8) during the subsequent transgression.

Marine Geology↗

USGS1979

Anomalously high uplift rates along the Ventura-Santa Barbara coast, California-tectonic implications

The NW—SE trending segments of the California coastline from Point Arena to Point Conception (500 km) and from Los Angeles to San Diego (200 km) generally parallel major right-lateral strike-slip fault systems. Minor vertical crustal movements associated with the dominant horizontal displacements along these fault systems are recorded in local sedimentary basins and slightly deformed marine terraces. Typical maximum uplift rates during Late Quaternary time are about 0.3 m/ka, based on U-series ages of corals and amino-acid age estimates of fossil mollusks from the lowest emergent terraces. In contrast, the E–W-trending segments of the California coastline between Point Conception and Los Angeles (200 km) parallel predominantly northward-dipping thrust and high-angle reverse faults of the western Transverse Ranges. Along this coast, marine terraces display significantly greater vertical deformation. Amino-acid age estimates of mollusks from elevated marine terraces along the Ventura—Santa Barbara coast imply anomalously high uplift rates of between 1 and 6 m/ka over the past 40 to 100 ka. The deduced rate of terrace uplift decreases from Ventura to Los Angeles, conforming with a similar trend observed by others in contemporary geodetic data. The more rapid rates of terrace uplift in the western Transverse Ranges reflect N—S crustal shortening that is probably a local accommodation of the dominant right-lateral shear strain along coastal California.

California↗

USGS2017

Observations and 3D hydrodynamics-based modeling of decadal-scale shoreline change along the Outer Banks, North Carolina

Long-term decadal-scale shoreline change is an important parameter for quantifying the stability of coastal systems. The decadal-scale coastal change is controlled by processes that occur on short time scales (such as storms) and long-term processes (such as prevailing waves). The ability to predict decadal-scale shoreline change is not well established and the fundamental physical processes controlling this change are not well understood. Here we investigate the processes that create large-scale long-term shoreline change along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, an uninterrupted 60 km stretch of coastline, using both observations and a numerical modeling approach. Shoreline positions for a 24-yr period were derived from aerial photographs of the Outer Banks. Analysis of the shoreline position data showed that, although variable, the shoreline eroded an average of 1.5 m/yr throughout this period. The modeling approach uses a three-dimensional hydrodynamics-based numerical model coupled to a spectral wave model and simulates the full 24-yr time period on a spatial grid running on a short (second scale) time-step to compute the sediment transport patterns. The observations and the model results show similar magnitudes (O(10 5 m 3 /yr)) and patterns of alongshore sediment fluxes. Both the observed and the modeled alongshore sediment transport rates have more rapid changes at the north of our section due to continuously curving coastline, and possible effects of alongshore variations in shelf bathymetry. The southern section with a relatively uniform orientation, on the other hand, has less rapid transport rate changes. Alongshore gradients of the modeled sediment fluxes are translated into shoreline change rates that have agreement in some locations but vary in others. Differences between observations and model results are potentially influenced by geologic framework processes not included in the model. Both the observations and the model results show higher rates of erosion (∼−1 m/yr) averaged over the northern half of the section as compared to the southern half where the observed and modeled averaged net shoreline changes are smaller (<0.1 m/yr). The model indicates accretion in some shallow embayments, whereas observations indicate erosion in these locations. Further analysis identifies that the magnitude of net alongshore sediment transport is strongly dominated by events associated with high wave energy. However, both big- and small- wave events cause shoreline change of the same order of magnitude because it is the gradients in transport, not the magnitude, that are controlling shoreline change. Results also indicate that alongshore momentum is not a simple balance between wave breaking and bottom stress, but also includes processes of horizontal vortex force, horizontal advection and pressure gradient that contribute to long-term alongshore sediment transport. As a comparison to a more simple approach, an empirical formulation for alongshore sediment transport is used. The empirical estimates capture the effect of the breaking term in the hydrodynamics-based model, however, other processes that are accounted for in the hydrodynamics-based model improve the agreement with the observed alongshore sediment transport.

North Carolina↗

USGS2019

The influence of shelf bathymetry and beach topography on extreme total water levels: Linking large-scale changes of the wave climate to local coastal hazards

Total water levels (TWLs) at the coast are driven by a combination of deterministic (e.g., tides) and stochastic (e.g., waves, storm surge, and sea level anomalies) processes. The contribution of each process to TWLs varies depending on regional differences in climate and framework geology, as well as local-scale variations in beach morphology, coastal orientation, and shelf bathymetry. Large-scale changes to the climate altering the frequency, direction, and intensity of storms, may therefore propagate to the nearshore differently, amplifying or suppressing local coastal hazards and changing the exposure of coastal communities to extreme TWLs. This study investigates the hydrodynamic and geomorphologic factors controlling local TWLs along high-energy United States coastlines where wave-influences dominate TWLs. Three study sites in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California are chosen to explore how regional and local differences in beach topography and wave transformation over shelf bathymetry drives variations in the magnitude and impacts of extreme TWLs. Results indicate that TWLs are most influenced by wave transformation processes in locations with steep beach slopes (which drive larger relative contributions of wave runup) and complex offshore bathymetry, while beach topography influences the severity of coastal impacts. Once the relative morphologic controls on TWLs are better understood, hypothetical future climate scenarios are explored to assess how changes to the average deepwater wave climate (height, period, and direction) may alter local TWLs when compared to estimates of likely sea level rise and future coastal management strategies. Changes to the wave climate are found to be as detrimental to the coastline as sea level rise in some locations, where small variations of the TWL drive large, nonlinear changes in hours of impact to the backshore beach. Overall, this study develops an approach for quantifying the range of hydrodynamic and morphologic controls on the magnitude of TWLs which will ultimately better prepare coastal communities for uncertain changes to the global climate.

California, Oregon, Washington↗