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Modeling watershed-scale impacts of stormwater management with traditional versus low impact development design

Stormwater runoff and associated pollutants from urban areas in the greater Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) impair local streams and downstream ecosystems, despite urbanized land comprising only 7% of the CBW area. More recently, stormwater best management practices (BMPs) have been implemented in a low impact development (LID) manner to treat stormwater runoff closer to its source. This approach included the development of a novel BMP model to compare traditional and LID design, pioneering the use of comprehensively digitized storm sewer infrastructure and BMP design connectivity with spatial patterns in a geographic information system at the watershed scale. The goal was to compare total watershed pollutant removal efficiency in two study watersheds with differing spatial patterns of BMP design (traditional and LID), by quantifying the improved water quality benefit of LID BMP design. An estimate of uncertainty was included in the modeling framework by using ranges for BMP pollutant removal efficiencies that were based on the literature. Our model, using Monte Carlo analysis, predicted that the LID watershed removed approximately 78 kg more nitrogen, 3 kg more phosphorus, and 1,592 kg more sediment per square kilometer as compared with the traditional watershed on an annual basis. Our research provides planners a valuable model to prioritize watersheds for BMP design based on model results or in optimizing BMP selection.

Maryland

Predicting potentially toxigenic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms in the Chesapeake Bay

Harmful algal blooms are now recognized as a significant threat to the Chesapeake Bay as they can severely compromise the economic viability of important recreational and commercial fisheries in the largest estuary of the United States. This study describes the development of empirical models for the potentially domoic acid-producing Pseudo-nitzschia species complex present in the Bay, developed from a 22-year time series of cell abundance and concurrent measurements of hydrographic and chemical properties. Using a logistic Generalized Linear Model (GLM) approach, model parameters and performance were compared over a range of Pseudo-nitzschia bloom thresholds relevant to toxin production by different species. Small-threshold blooms (???10cellsmL-1) are explained by time of year, location, and variability in surface values of phosphate, temperature, nitrate plus nitrite, and freshwater discharge. Medium- (100cellsmL-1) to large- threshold (1000cellsmL-1) blooms are further explained by salinity, silicic acid, dissolved organic carbon, and light attenuation (Secchi) depth. These predictors are similar to other models for Pseudo-nitzschia blooms on the west coast, suggesting commonalities across ecosystems. Hindcasts of bloom probabilities at a 19% bloom prediction point yield a Heidke Skill Score of -53%, a Probability of Detection ~75%, a False Alarm Ratio of ~52%, and a Probability of False Detection ~9%. The implication of possible future changes in Baywide nutrient stoichiometry on Pseudo-nitzschia blooms is discussed. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Journal of Marine Systems

Factors driving nutrient trends in streams of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Despite decades of effort toward reducing nitrogen and phosphorus flux to Chesapeake Bay, water-quality and ecological responses in surface waters have been mixed. Recent research, however, provides useful insight into multiple factors complicating the understanding of nutrient trends in bay tributaries, which we review in this paper, as we approach a 2025 total maximum daily load (TMDL) management deadline. Improvements in water quality in many streams are attributable to management actions that reduced point sources and atmospheric nitrogen deposition and to changes in climate. Nutrient reductions expected from management actions, however, have not been fully realized in watershed streams. Nitrogen from urban nonpoint sources has declined, although water-quality responses to urbanization in individual streams vary depending on predevelopment land use. Evolving agriculture, the largest watershed source of nutrients, has likely contributed to local nutrient trends but has not affected substantial changes in flux to the bay. Changing average nitrogen yields from farmland underlain by carbonate rocks, however, may suggest future trends in other areas under similar management, climatic, or other influences, although drivers of these changes remain unclear. Regardless of upstream trends, phosphorus flux to the bay from its largest tributary has increased due to sediment infill in the Conowingo Reservoir. In general, recent research emphasizes the utility of input reductions over attempts to manage nutrient fate and transport at limiting nutrients in surface waters. Ongoing research opportunities include evaluating effects of climate change and conservation practices over time and space and developing tools to disentangle and evaluate multiple influences on regional water quality.

Chesapeake Bay watershed

Complex hydrology and variability of nitrogen sources in a karst watershed

Streams draining karst areas with rapid groundwater transit times may respond relatively quickly to nitrogen reduction strategies, but the complex hydrologic network of interconnected sinkholes and springs is challenging for determining the placement and effectiveness of management practices. This study aims to inform nitrogen reduction strategies in a representative agricultural karst setting of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (Fishing Creek watershed, Pennsylvania) with known elevated nitrate contamination and a previous documented groundwater residence time of less than a decade. During baseflow conditions, streamflow did not increase with drainage area. Headwaters and the main stem lost substantial flow to sinkholes until eventually discharging along large springs downstream. Seasonal hydrologic conditions shift the flow and nitrogen load spatially among losing and gaining stream sections. A compilation of nitrogen source inputs with the geochemistry and the pattern of enrichment of δ 15 N and δ 18 O suggest that the nitrogen in streams and springs during baseflow represents a mixture of manure, fertilizer, and wastewater sources with low potential for denitrification. The pH and calcite saturation index increased along generalized flow paths from headwaters to springs and indicate shorter groundwater residence times in baseflow during the spring versus summer. Given the substantial investment in management practices, fixed monitoring sites could incorporate synoptic water sampling to properly monitor long-term progress and help inform management actions in karst watersheds. Although karst watersheds have the potential to respond to nitrogen reduction strategies due to shorter groundwater residence times, high nitrogen inputs, effectiveness of conservation practices, and release of legacy nutrients within the karst cavities could confound progress of water quality goals.

Pennsylvania

Nutrients in streams during baseflow in selected environmental settings of the Potomac River Basin

A regional assessment of water quality in small streams was conducted within four areas of distinct physiography and lithology in the upper Potomac River Basin. The Potomac River is a major tributary to the Chesapeake Bay, and this study provides new insight on the relationships between nutrient concentrations in small streams and watershed characteristics within this river basin. Nutrient concentrations were compared to land-use data including categories for agriculture (cropland and pasture), urban areas, and forests. Among agricultural areas, streams draining areas of intense row cropping typically contained higher nitrate concentrations than did those draining pastures. Streams draining forested areas typically had the lowest nutrient concentrations. Streams in areas underlain by carbonate bedrock were more likely to contain elevated concentrations of inorganic nitrogen and potassium than did streams in areas underlain by fractured siliciclastic or crystalline rocks, and we suggest that this is a physical phenomenon related to high hydraulic conductivities in carbonate ground-water systems. The median nitrate concentrations were highest in the Great Valley portion of the Valley and Ridge physiographic province, particularly in watersheds that have both carbonate bedrock and intensive row cropping. Values of nitrate in these streams ranged up to 8.99 mg/L as nitrogen. The soluble phosphorus concentrations during baseflow were generally low in all subunits, even in some settings with potential for high phosphorus inputs such as urban areas with municipal point sources or agricultural areas. The mobility of phosphorus in these environments may be hindered by adsorption and geochemical reactions.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Comparing historical catch rates of American shad in multifilament and monofilament nets: A step toward setting restoration targets for Virginia stocks

Recreational and commercial harvest of American shad Alosa sapidissima in the Virginia waters of the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries has been prohibited since 1994. The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission Shad and River Herring Management Plan requires that Virginia develop restoration targets for its shad populations, but estimates of their sizes are not available and there is little information about historic population levels. Thus, establishing restoration targets based on population size is problematic. A current spawning stock monitoring program yields catch rate information that can be compared with historic catch rate information recorded in commercial fishery logbooks from the 1950s and the 1980s. However, multifilament gill nets were used in the 1950s and monofilament nets were used in the 1980s (as well as in the current monitoring program). A Latin square design was employed to test the differences in relative fishing power of the two gear types over 2 years of seasonal sampling on the York River, Virginia. Estimates are that the monofilament nets are roughly twice as efficient as the multifilament nets. Reported catch rates in the 1950s and 1980s are roughly equivalent. However, when adjustments are made for the differences in fishing gear, catch rates for the 1950s are twice as high as those during the 1980s. These results provide valuable information for setting restoration targets for Virginia stocks of American shad. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Satellite assessment of winter cover crop and conservation tillage outcomes to support adaptive management in working landscapes

The use of winter cover crops and conservation tillage are agricultural practices promoted to reduce nutrient and sediment loss from cropland, improve soil health, increase infiltration, and support farm nutrient cycling and ecosystem services. However, environmental performance of these practices is variable in the working farm landscape. The Lower Chesapeake Bay research project within the USDA Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network has collaboratively developed satellite remote sensing algorithms to measure the performance and phenology of winter cover crops (aboveground biomass, nitrogen content, fractional cover, and emergence and termination dates) using no-cost Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 multispectral satellite imagery. This research supports annual operational assessment of >28,000 fields per year in four states. Results document the impacts of agronomic management on conservation outcomes, support adaptive management of incentive payment structures, and can reduce the workload for conservation district staff by remotely verifying cover crop management. Additionally, super-spectral satellite applications have been developed to accurately map crop residue cover by measuring lignocellulose absorption in shortwave infrared wavelengths, producing a 7-year time series of tillage intensity maps for the Delmarva Peninsula. These remote sensing products can be used in decision support and modeling to estimate changes in nutrient, sediment, and carbon cycling resulting from conservation practice implementation in the working farm landscape. This manuscript provides an overview of remote sensing research findings and applications associated with the USDA LTAR and Conservation Effects Assessment Projects (CEAP), documenting a variety of previously published outcomes with update and expansion of techniques using additional unpublished data and analyses as appropriate.

Maryland

Influence of nutrients on feed intake and condition of captive canvasbacks in winter

Dramatic changes in the food habits and distribution of canvasbacks ( Aythya valisineria ) in Chesapeake Bay during the 1970's generated a need to evaluate the nutritional value of food items and the requirements of this species on its wintering grounds. Groups of captive canvasbacks were maintained ad libitum on 5 diets during the winters of 1978-79 and 1979-80 to evaluate the effects of varying protein and energy levels on feed intake and condition. Feed intake during the 1979-80 winter was 42% greater for those ducks fed the low energy (1,543 kcal/kg) diet than for those fed the high energy (3,638 kcal/kg) diet. Canvasbacks fed the high energy diet, however, consumed 317 kcal/bird day, whereas those fed the low energy diet consumed only 191 kcal/bird day. Body weight of males and females did not differ among groups fed different diets, but there were seasonal differences (P < 0.05) for both sexes aggregated across diets. Data from this study indicate that canvasbacks may be unable to adjust intake rates to compensate for low energy foods and subsequently may store less fat or modify behavior. However, decreased weight, feed intake, and activity of ducks fed ad libitum rations occurred in mid-winter irrespective of diet quality and appeared to be an endogenous component of their annual cycle that persists in captivity. These changes apparently have a selective advantage of increasing the probability of survival in ducks by decreasing energy expenditure during periods of winter stress.

Maryland, Virginia

Effects of distributed and centralized stormwater best management practices and land cover on urban stream hydrology at the catchment scale

Urban stormwater runoff remains an important issue that causes local and regional-scale water quantity and quality issues. Stormwater best management practices (BMPs) have been widely used to mitigate runoff issues, traditionally in a centralized manner; however, problems associated with urban hydrology have remained. An emerging trend is implementation of BMPs in a distributed manner (multi-BMP treatment trains located on the landscape and integrated with urban design), but little catchment-scale performance of these systems have been reported to date. Here, stream hydrologic data (March, 2011&ndash;September, 2012) are evaluated in four catchments located in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: one utilizing distributed stormwater BMPs, two utilizing centralized stormwater BMPs, and a forested catchment serving as a reference. Among urban catchments with similar land cover, geology and BMP design standards (i.e. 100-year event), but contrasting placement of stormwater BMPs, distributed BMPs resulted in: significantly greater estimated baseflow, a higher minimum precipitation threshold for stream response and maximum discharge increases, better maximum discharge control for small precipitation events, and reduced runoff volume during an extreme (1000-year) precipitation event compared to centralized BMPs. For all catchments, greater forest land cover and less impervious cover appeared to be more important drivers than stormwater BMP spatial pattern, and caused lower total, stormflow, and baseflow runoff volume; lower maximum discharge during typical precipitation events; and lower runoff volume during an extreme precipitation event. Analysis of hydrologic field data in this study suggests that both the spatial distribution of stormwater BMPs and land cover are important for management of urban stormwater runoff. In particular, catchment-wide application of distributed BMPs improved stream hydrology compared to centralized BMPs, but not enough to fully replicate forested catchment stream hydrology. Integrated planning of stormwater management, protected riparian buffers and forest land cover with suburban development in the distributed-BMP catchment enabled multi-purpose use of land that provided esthetic value and green-space, community gathering points, and wildlife habitat in addition to hydrologic stormwater treatment.

Journal of Hydrology

Life history and status of Shortnose Sturgeon (Acipenser brevirostrum LeSueur, 1818)

Shortnose Sturgeon = SNS (Acipenser brevirostrum) is a small diadromous species with most populations living in large Atlantic coast rivers and estuaries of North America from New Brunswick, Canada, to GA, USA. There are no naturally landlocked populations, so all populations require access to fresh water and salt water to complete a natural life cycle. The species is amphidromous with use of fresh water and salt water (the estuary) varied across the species range, a pattern that may reflect whether freshwater or saltwater habitats provide optimal foraging and growth conditions. Migration is a dominant behavior during life history, beginning when fish are hatchling free embryos (southern SNS) or larvae (northeastern and far northern SNS). Migration continues by juveniles and nonspawning adult life stages on an individual time schedule with fish moving between natal river and estuary to forage or seek refuge, and by spawning adults migrating to and from riverine spawning grounds. Coastal movements by adults throughout the range (but particularly in the Gulf of Maine = GOM and among southern rivers) suggest widespread foraging, refuge use, and widespread colonization of new rivers. Colonization may also be occurring in the Potomac River, MD–VA–DC (midAtlantic region). Genetic studies (mtDNA and nDNA) identified distinct individual river populations of SNS, and recent rangewide nDNA studies identified five distinct evolutionary lineages of SNS in the USA: a northern metapopulation in GOM rivers; the Connecticut River; the Hudson River; a Delaware River–Chesapeake Bay metapopulation; and a large southern metapopulation (SC rivers to Altamaha River, GA). The Saint John River, NB, Canada, in the Bay of Fundy (north of the GOM), is the sixth distinct genetic lineage within SNS. Life history information from telemetry tracking supports the genetic information documenting extensive movement of adults among rivers within the three metapopulations. However, individual river populations with spawning adults are still the best basal unit for management and recovery planning. The focus on individual river populations should be complemented with attention to migratory processes and corridors that foster metapopulation level risks and benefits. The species may be extirpated at the center of the range, i.e., the midAtlantic region (Chesapeake Bay, MD–VA, and probably, NC), but large rivers in VA, including the James and Potomac rivers, need study. The largest SNS populations in GOM and northeastern rivers, like the Kennebec, Hudson, and Delaware rivers, typically have tens of thousands of adults. This contrasts with southern rivers, where rivers typically have much fewer (<2500) adults, except for the Altamaha River (>6000 adults). River damming in the 19th and 20th Centuries extirpated some populations, and also, created two dysfunctional segmented populations: the Connecticut River SNS in CT–MA and the SanteeCooper rivers–Lake Marion SNS in SC. The major anthropogenic impact on SNS in marine waters is fisheries bycatch. The major impacts that determine annual recruitment success occur in freshwater firstly, where adult spawning migrations and spawning are blocked or spawning success is affected by river regulation and secondly, where poor survival of early life stages is caused by river dredging, pollution, and unregulated impingement/entrainment in water withdrawal facilities. Climate warming has the potential to reduce abundance or eliminate SNS in many rivers, particularly in the South. In 1998, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) recommended management of 19 rivers as distinct population segments (DPSs) based on strong fidelity to natal rivers. A Biological Assessment completed in 2010 reaffirmed this approach. NMFS has not formally listed DPSs under the ESA and the species remains listed as endangered rangewide in the USA.

Journal of Applied Ichthyology

Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades. The biotic submodel couples dynamics in fish populations and habitat suitability to predict fish assemblage composition, based on readily available biotic information (preferences for habitat, temperature, and food, and characteristics of spawning) and day-to-day variability in stream conditions. We illustrate the model using Piedmont headwater streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed of the USA, projecting ten scenarios: Baseline (low urbanization; no on-going construction; and present-day climate); one Urbanization scenario (higher impervious surface, lower forest cover, significant construction activity); four future climate change scenarios [Hadley CM3 and Parallel Climate Models under medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) emissions scenarios]; and the same four climate change scenarios plus Urbanization. Urbanization alone depressed growth or reproduction of 8 of 39 species, while climate change alone depressed 22 to 29 species. Almost every recreationally important species (i.e. trouts, basses, sunfishes) and six of the ten currently most common species were predicted to be significantly stressed. The combined effect of climate change and urbanization on adult growth was sometimes large compared to the effect of either stressor alone. Thus, the model predicts considerable change in fish assemblage composition, including loss of diversity. Synthesis and applications . The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems.

Journal of Applied Ecology

The bioeconomic impact of different management regulations on the Chesapeake Bay blue crab fishery

The harvest of blue crabs Callinectes sapidus in Chesapeake Bay declined 46% between 1993 and 2001 and remained low through 2008. Because the total market value of this fishery has declined by an average of US $ 3.3 million per year since 1993, the commercial fishery has been challenged to maintain profitability. We developed a bioeconomic simulation model of the Chesapeake Bay blue crab fishery to aid managers in determining which regulations will maximize revenues while ensuring a sustainable harvest. We compared 15 different management scenarios, including those implemented by Maryland and Virginia between 2007 and 2009, that sought to reduce female crab harvest and nine others that used seasonal closures, different size regulations, or the elimination of fishing for specific market categories. Six scenarios produced the highest revenues: the 2008 and 2009 Maryland regulations, spring and fall closures for female blue crabs, and 152- and 165-mm maximum size limits for females. Our most important finding was that for each state the 2008 and 2009 scenarios that implemented early closures of the female crab fishery produced higher revenues than the 2007 scenario, in which no early female closures were implemented. We conclude that the use of maximum size limits for female crabs would not be feasible despite their potentially high revenue, given the likelihood that the soft-shell and peeler fisheries cannot be expanded beyond their current capacity and the potentially high mortality rate for culled individuals that are the incorrect size. Our model results support the current use of seasonal closures for females, which permit relatively high exploitation of males and soft-shell and peeler blue crabs (which have high prices) while keeping the female crab harvest sustainable. Further, our bioeconomic model allows for the inclusion of an economic viewpoint along with biological data when target reference points are set by managers.

Chesapeake Bay

Stream macroinvertebrate responses vary with region, land use and management practice type

Intensive land use alters hydrology and water quality, threatening freshwater benthic macroinvertebrates. Over 200,000 management practices (MPs) have been implemented across the Chesapeake Bay watershed since the 1980s, yet biological responses remain inconsistent. We synthesized 29 studies from 4 physiographic provinces covering 8 MP categories and evaluated macroinvertebrate responses along MP gradients using structural (richness), functional (biomass), tolerance, and biotic metrics. We hypothesized that MPs enhancing habitat complexity or restoring flow regimes would benefit taxa sensitive to sediment, hydrologic instability and organic pollution, with outcomes shaped by regional context, land use, and chosen metrics. Four themes emerged. (i) Agricultural Riparian Forest Buffers (RFBs) consistently improved sensitive metrics related to abundance, biomass and richness. (ii) Urban streams with Stream Habitat Improvement and Management (SHIM) showed improved richness and diversity, but biomass and tolerance metrics declined or remained neutral, indicating unresolved hydrologic and pollutant stress. (iii) Structural and functional responses diverged: effect sizes for total and feeding-group biomasses (functional metrics) were negative, whereas genus-level Ephemeroptera-Plecoptera-Trichoptera (EPT) richness (structural metric) was positive, indicating that structural shifts may not track underlying production changes. (iv) Physiographic comparisons showed counterintuitive patterns, as RFBs improved EPT richness in Piedmont streams but had negative effects in the Coastal Plain. Evaluating MP effectiveness requires distinguishing a no-MP pathway (stressors → instream conditions → assemblages → responses) from an MP-mediated pathway (practice regime → modified stressors → instream conditions → assemblages → responses), underscoring the need for region-specific, multi-metric monitoring and improved understanding of MP density thresholds and recovery lags.

eastern contiguous United States

Frequency of effective wave activity and the recession of coastal bluffs: Calvert Cliffs, Maryland

The Calvert Cliffs, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, USA, erode by direct wave undercutting or by freeze/thaw erosion accompanied by wave removal of slope debris. Directly undercut slopes recede more rapidly, with long-term rates exceeding 1.0 m/yr; freeze/thaw slopes recede at rates approaching 0.5 m/yr. The frequency of wave height and water level at the shoreline is estimated for eleven sites based on a 37-year wind record, estimates of storm surge, offshore wave geometry, nearshore wave transformation, and breaking wave type. Locations experiencing the largest slope recession are not uniformly those with the largest cumulative wave energy; the resistance to erosion of the slope toe must also be accounted for. An index of relative wave strength is defined as the ratio of wave pressure T and the cohesive strength S of the slope material. For the Calvert Cliffs, a minimum relative wave strength for initiating erosion of intact material is 0.05 < T/S < 0.1. A cumulative duration of ???50 hours per year for T/S ??? 0.1 distinguishes undercut and nonundercut slopes and recession rates greater or lesser than 0.5 m/yr. The relative wave strength index may be used to identify sites at risk of increased erosion. At one site with a small historical erosion rate, the loss of a protective beach and associated decrease in toe elevation caused a positive shift in the frequency of large T/S. Direct wave undercutting and increased slope recession may be anticipated at this site, as indicated by the development of an undercut notch during the course of the study.

Journal of Coastal Research

Mycobacterial infection in Northern snakehead ( Channa argus ) from the Potomac River catchment

The Northern snakehead, Channa argus (Cantor), is a non-native predatory fish that has become established regionally in some temperate freshwater habitats within the United States. Over the past decade, Northern snakehead populations have developed within aquatic ecosystems throughout the eastern USA, including the Potomac River system within Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C. Since this species was initially observed in this region in 2002, the population has expanded considerably (Odenkirk & Owens 2007 ). In the Chesapeake Bay watershed, populations of Northern snakehead exist in the lower Potomac River and Rappahannock Rivers on the Western shore of the Bay, and these fish have also been found in middle or upper reaches of river systems on the Eastern shore of the Bay, including the Nanticoke and Wicomico Rivers among others. Over the past several years, many aspects of Northern snakehead life history in the Potomac River have been described, including range and dispersal patterns, microhabitat selection and diet (Lapointe, Thorson & Angermeier 2010 ; Saylor, Lapointe & Angermeier 2012 ; Lapointe, Odenkirk & Angermeier 2013 ). However, comparatively little is known about their health status including susceptibility to parasitism and disease and their capacity to serve as reservoirs of disease for native wildlife. Although considered hardy by fisheries biologists, snakehead fish have demonstrated susceptibility to a number of described piscine diseases within their native range and habitat in Asia. Reported pathogens of significance in snakehead species in Asia include snakehead rhabdovirus (Lio-Po et al . 2000 ), aeromonad bacteria (Zheng, Cao & Yang 2012 ), Nocardia (Wang et al . 2007 ) and Mycobacterium spp . (Chinabut, Limsuwan & Chantatchakool 1990 ; ). Mycobacterial isolates recovered from another snakehead species ( Channa striata ) in the previous studies have included M. marinum and M. fortuitum , as identified through molecular-based diagnostics (Puttinaowarat et al . 2002 ). We have conducted health screenings of Northern snakehead from the Potomac River system over the past several years and have detected few associated pathogens. Typical observations have largely consisted of incidental identification of parasitism with protozoal, monogenean or trematode organisms (unpublished data). We have also identified largemouth bass virus (LMBV) in clinically normal Northern snakehead collected from the Potomac River (Iwanowicz et al . 2013 ). Continued research concerning these and other pathogens of this introduced species is important to fully understand the potential impacts of these fish on indigenous wildlife and aquatic ecosystems.

Potomac River, Pohick Bay

Assessing the topographic distribution of legacy soil phosphorus in agricultural fields of the Delmarva Peninsula, Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA

Phosphorus (P) management remains a challenge in agricultural watersheds. The Choptank River Conservation Effects Assessment Project watershed, located in Maryland and Delaware and draining to the Chesapeake Bay, contains legacy soil P from historical dairy and poultry manure applications. These practices elevated soil P beyond crop needs, contributing to persistent P export to aquatic ecosystems. We assessed spatial P distribution and analyzed GIS (Geographic Information Systems)-derived landscape features driving legacy P movement on a farm (47 ha). We hypothesized that P accumulates in drained lowlands and depressional areas due to gravity-driven processes that accelerate P-enriched water to receiving waters via overland flow. In collaboration with the US Department of Agriculture Legacy P project, we collected 105 soil samples (0- to 5-cm and 5- to 15-cm depths) and 14 ditch sediment samples across five topographic openness classes from a farm with >100 years of dairy manure application. Average Mehlich-III P concentrations were 218 and 179 mg kg −1 at 0- to 5-cm and 5- to 15-cm depths, respectively, with legacy areas defined by P content > 100 mg kg −1 . Soil P and clay particle size were positively correlated ( r = 0.42, p < 0.05), increased as landscape openness decreased, and were negatively correlated with topographic openness (ranging from −0.2 to −0.4, p < 0.05), indicating accumulation of P and clay in low-lying areas. These patterns suggest that historical field-level managements have primarily shaped P distribution, while hydrologic and landscape properties further influence its redistribution via transport pathways and drainage. These findings support the development of landscape models to map critical source areas in low-relief watersheds and guide targeted mitigation in high-risk P export zones.

Maryland

Accuracy assessment of NLCD 2011 impervious cover data for the Chesapeake Bay region, USA

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) contains three eras (2001, 2006, 2011) of percentage urban impervious cover (%IC) at the native pixel size (30 m-x-30 m) of the Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite. These data are potentially valuable to environmental managers and stakeholders because of the utility of %IC as an indicator of watershed and aquatic condition, but lack an accuracy assessment because of the absence of suitable reference data. Recently developed 1 m2 land cover data for the Chesapeake Bay region makes it possible to assess NLCD %IC accuracy for a 262,000 km2 region based on a census rather than a sample of reference data. We report agreement between the two %IC datasets for watersheds and the riparian zones within watersheds and four additional square units. The areas of the six assessment units were 40 ha cell, 433 ha (riparian unit average), 2,756 ha cell, 5,626 ha cell, 8,569 ha (watershed unit average) and 22,500 ha cell. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) was ≤ 1.6% for each of the six assessment units and Mean Deviation (MD) was only slightly less, indicating NLCD reliably reproduced %IC from the 1 m2 data with a small (≤ 1.6%) and consistent tendency for underestimation. Results were sensitive to assessment unit choice. The results for the four largest assessment units had very similar regression parameters, R2 values, and patterns of bias. Results for the riparian assessment were different from those for the watershed unit and the other three larger units. MAD was about 50% less for the riparian zones than it was for the watersheds, the direction of bias was less consistent, and NLCD %IC was uniformly higher than 1 m2 %IC in urbanized riparian zones. For the smallest unit, bias patterns were more similar to the riparian unit and regression results were more similar to the four larger units. MAD and MD were also sensitive to the amount of urbanization, increasing as NLCD %IC increased. The low overall bias and positive relationship between bias and level of urbanization suggest that the benefits of obtaining 1 m2 IC data outside of urban areas may not outweigh the costs of obtaining such data.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin

Explainable machine learning improves interpretability in the predictive modeling of biological stream conditions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA

Anthropogenic alterations have resulted in widespread degradation of stream conditions. To aid in stream restoration and management, baseline estimates of conditions and improved explanation of factors driving their degradation are needed. We used random forests to model biological conditions using a benthic macroinvertebrate index of biotic integrity for small, non-tidal streams (upstream area ≤200 km 2 ) in the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) of the mid-Atlantic coast of North America. We utilized several global and local model interpretation tools to improve average and site-specific model inferences, respectively. The model was used to predict condition for 95,867 individual catchments for eight periods (2001, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2019). Predicted conditions were classified as Poor, FairGood, or Uncertain to align with management needs and individual reach lengths and catchment areas were summed by condition class for the CBW for each period. Global permutation and local Shapley importance values indicated percent of forest, development, and agriculture in upstream catchments had strong impacts on predictions. Development and agriculture negatively influenced stream condition for model average (partial dependence [PD] and accumulated local effect [ALE] plots) and local (individual condition expectation and Shapley value plots) levels. Friedman's H-statistic indicated large overall interactions for these three land covers, and bivariate global plots (PD and ALE) supported interactions among agriculture and development. Total stream length and catchment area predicted in FairGood conditions decreased then increased over the 19-years (length/area: 66.6/65.4% in 2001, 66.3/65.2% in 2011, and 66.6/65.4% in 2019). Examination of individual catchment predictions between 2001 and 2019 showed those predicted to have the largest decreases in condition had large increases in development; whereas catchments predicted to exhibit the largest increases in condition showed moderate increases in forest cover. Use of global and local interpretative methods together with watershed-wide and individual catchment predictions support conservation practitioners that need to identify widespread and localized patterns, especially acknowledging that management actions typically take place at individual-reach scales.

Chesapeake Bay Watershed