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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Fifty years of riverine harmful algal bloom modeling: A global synthesis of approaches, challenges, and opportunities

This systematic literature review critically examines 162 articles on harmful algal bloom (HAB) modeling in riverine systems to uncover persistent gaps, redefine critical challenges, and propose trackable opportunities to advance future modeling efforts. Articles largely focused on site-specific applications (93%) across more than 80 rivers worldwide. Most modeled systems were large, eutrophic rivers with flow modifications or obstructions. Geographic clustering of modeled systems was pronounced, with South Korea accounting for 26% of articles, followed by Europe (25%), United States (21%), and China (12%). Modeling approaches were led by process-based models (59%), though use of data-driven models (37%) increased over time, reflecting advances in computing and monitoring technology. Modeling endpoints varied widely across the articles with many focused on gross measures of algal abundance and fewer representing more refined endpoints like algal toxins or community composition. Furthermore, inconsistent units and taxonomic resolution hindered comparability between models. Datasets used for model development and calibration typically spanned 5 years, with weekly to monthly sampling at 1–10 sites, though durations and site counts were positively skewed. Quantitative metrics of model skill were often absent and included a diverse set of metrics when reported. Across all models, nutrients, light availability, streamflow, algal physiological processes, and water temperature emerged as key predictors, though algal processes were rarely incorporated in data-driven models. Scenario analyses primarily were conducted with process-based models and addressed flow management, whereas forecasting applications were less common and typically used data-driven models. After almost 50 years of riverine HAB modeling, persistent challenges include underrepresentation of benthic habitats, neglect of side-channel and backwater influences, insufficient documentation of river features, and weak linkages between modeled endpoints and potential harms. Addressing these gaps through reporting of contextual information, models from other aquatic settings, benchmark datasets, and community-driven tools could advance riverine HAB modeling towards increased transferability and ultimately operational forecasts.

Water Research↗
USGS2011

Simulating the impacts of disturbances on forest carbon cycling in North America: Processes, data, models, and challenges

Forest disturbances greatly alter the carbon cycle at various spatial and temporal scales. It is critical to understand disturbance regimes and their impacts to better quantify regional and global carbon dynamics. This review of the status and major challenges in representing the impacts of disturbances in modeling the carbon dynamics across North America revealed some major advances and challenges. First, significant advances have been made in representation, scaling, and characterization of disturbances that should be included in regional modeling efforts. Second, there is a need to develop effective and comprehensive process‐based procedures and algorithms to quantify the immediate and long‐term impacts of disturbances on ecosystem succession, soils, microclimate, and cycles of carbon, water, and nutrients. Third, our capability to simulate the occurrences and severity of disturbances is very limited. Fourth, scaling issues have rarely been addressed in continental scale model applications. It is not fully understood which finer scale processes and properties need to be scaled to coarser spatial and temporal scales. Fifth, there are inadequate databases on disturbances at the continental scale to support the quantification of their effects on the carbon balance in North America. Finally, procedures are needed to quantify the uncertainty of model inputs, model parameters, and model structures, and thus to estimate their impacts on overall model uncertainty. Working together, the scientific community interested in disturbance and its impacts can identify the most uncertain issues surrounding the role of disturbance in the North American carbon budget and develop working hypotheses to reduce the uncertainty

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2023

Water, water everywhere, but every drop unique: Emerging challenges in the science to understand the role of contaminants in management of drinking water supplies

The protection and management of water resources continues to be challenged by multiple and ongoing factors such as shifts in demographic, social, economic, and public health requirements. Physical limitations placed on access to potable supplies include natural and human-caused factors such as aquifer depletion, aging infrastructure, saltwater intrusion, floods, and drought. These factors, although varying in magnitude, spatial extent, and timing, can exacerbate the potential for contaminants of concern (CECs) to be present in sources of drinking water, infrastructure, premise plumbing and associated tap water. This monograph examines how current and emerging scientific efforts and technologies increase our understanding of the range of CECs and drinking water issues facing current and future populations. It is not intended to be read in one sitting, but is instead a starting point for scientists wanting to learn more about the issues surrounding CECs. This text discusses the topical evolution CECs over time (Section 1), improvements in measuring chemical and microbial CECs, through both analysis of concentration and toxicity (Section 2) and modeling CEC exposure and fate (Section 3), forms of treatment effective at removing chemical and microbial CECs (Section 4), and potential for human health impacts from exposure to CECs (Section 5). The paper concludes with how changes to water quantity, both scarcity and surpluses, could affect water quality (Section 6). Taken together, these sections document the past 25 years of CEC research and the regulatory response to these contaminants, the current work to identify and monitor CECs and mitigate exposure, and the challenges facing the future.

GeoHealth↗
USGS2018

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2013

Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions: a review of recent progress and remaining challenges

The vast amount of organic carbon (OC) stored in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region is a potentially vulnerable component of the global carbon cycle. However, estimates of the quantity, decomposability, and combustibility of OC contained in permafrost-region soils remain highly uncertain, thereby limiting our ability to predict the release of greenhouse gases due to permafrost thawing. Substantial differences exist between empirical and modeling estimates of the quantity and distribution of permafrost-region soil OC, which contribute to large uncertainties in predictions of carbon–climate feedbacks under future warming. Here, we identify research challenges that constrain current assessments of the distribution and potential decomposability of soil OC stocks in the northern permafrost region and suggest priorities for future empirical and modeling studies to address these challenges.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2019

Confronting models with data: The challenges of estimating disease spillover

For pathogens known to transmit across host species, strategic investment in disease control requires knowledge about where and when spillover transmission is likely. One approach to estimating spillover is to directly correlate observed spillover events with covariates. An alternative is to mechanistically combine information on host density, distribution, and pathogen prevalence to predict where and when spillover events are expected to occur. We use several case studies at the wildlife-livestock disease interface to highlight the challenges, and potential solutions, to estimating spatio-temporal variation in spillover risk. Datasets on multiple host species often do not align in space, time or resolution, and may have no estimates of observation error. Linking these datasets requires they be related to a common spatial and temporal resolution and appropriately propagating errors in predictions can be difficult. Hierarchical models are one potential solution, but for fine-resolution predictions at broad spatial scales many models become computationally challenging. Despite these limitations, the confrontation of mechanistic predictions with observed events is an important avenue for developing a better understanding of pathogen spillover. Systems where data have been collected at all levels in the spillover process are rare, or non-existent, and require investment and sustained effort across disciplines.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗
USGS2025

Challenges and opportunities for data integration to improve estimation of migratory connectivity

Understanding migratory connectivity, or the linkage of populations between seasons, is critical for effective conservation and management of migratory wildlife. A growing number of tools are available for understanding where migratory individuals and populations occur throughout the annual cycle. Integration of the diverse measures of migratory movements can help elucidate migratory connectivity patterns with methodology that accounts for differences in sampling design, directionality, effort, precision and bias inherent to each data type. The R package MigConnectivity was developed to estimate population-specific connectivity and the range-wide strength of those connections. New functions allow users to integrate intrinsic markers, tracking and long-distance reencounter data, collected from the same or different individuals, to estimate population-specific transition probabilities (estTransition) and the range-wide strength of those transition probabilities (estStrength). We used simulation and real-world case studies to explore the challenges and limitations of data integration based on data from three migratory bird species, Painted Bunting ( Passerina ciris ), Yellow Warbler ( Setophaga petechia ) and Bald Eagle ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ), two of which had bidirectional data. We found data integration is useful for quantifying migratory connectivity, as single data sources are less likely to be available across the species range. Furthermore, accurate strength estimates can be obtained from either breeding-to-nonbreeding or nonbreeding-to-breeding data. For bidirectional data, integration can lead to more accurate estimates when data are available from all regions in at least one season. The ability to conduct combined analyses that account for the unique limitations and biases of each data type is a promising possibility for overcoming the challenge of range-wide coverage that has been hard to achieve using single data types. The best-case scenario for data integration is to have data from all regions, especially if the question is range-wide or data are bidirectional. Multiple data types on animal movements are becoming increasingly available and integration of these growing datasets will lead to a better understanding of the full annual cycle of migratory animals.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2024

Climate-smart invasive species management for 21st century global change challenges

Addressing the global challenges of climate change and biotic invasions requires understanding their interactions and implications for natural resource management. To facilitate and support invasive species management in a changing climate, we review how climate change and invasions interact to impact the planning, action, and outcomes of invasive species management. Climate change is affecting which species natural resource managers need to assess, monitor, and target by facilitating the introduction of new potential invasive species and altering pathways of introduction and spread. Climate-driven shifts in seasonal conditions and phenological events disrupt and require more flexible management timelines. Climate change may reduce the efficacy and feasibility of current treatment methods and create a need to shift management goals as native ecosystems become more vulnerable to disturbance. Additionally, extreme climate events can compound the spread and impacts of biological invasions, making invasive species management a necessary part of extreme event preparation and response planning. As a solution to these challenges, we propose climate-smart invasive species management, which we define as the approaches that managers and decision-makers can take to address the interactive effects of climate change and invasions. Climate-smart invasive species management includes considering shifts in species ranges, abundance, and impacts to inform monitoring, treatment, and regulation of potential and new invaders at multiple scales. Managers can also adjust the timing of and approach to treatment as efficacy and feasibility change, promote resilient ecosystems through climate-smart restoration, and consider the effects of climate change when setting management goals. Furthermore, climate adaptation funds could expand avenues of funding and support for invasive species management. Explicitly considering the interactions of climate change and biological invasions within organizational decision-making and policy will lead to more effective management and can promote more resilient landscapes.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2017

Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision-making processes work in specific contexts.

Earth Interactions↗
USGS2026

The WOAH global wildlife health collaborating centre network (WOAH-WildNet): A coordinated and transformative approach to global wildlife health challenges

Wildlife health is integral to functioning, complex ecosystems [ 1 ], directly and indirectly influencing the health of people, animals, plants, and the environment [ 2 – 4 ]. Healthy wildlife populations are essential for ecosystem services and are at the heart of the One Health approach [ 3 , 4 ], which aims to sustainably balance and optimize the health of people, animals, and ecosystems through multisectoral and transdisciplinary collaboration [ 5 ]. Despite its importance, wildlife health initiatives often operate in silos, limiting capacity to address transboundary threats such as emerging diseases, pollution, and environmental changes. Anthropogenic changes, including habitat loss, degradation, fragmentation, and unsustainable harvesting, exacerbate wildlife health challenges [6–9]. These pressures disrupt species biology and alter host-pathogen dynamics [10–12], underscoring the importance of coordinated collective action in addressing harmful effects on the health of wild animals. While local conservation efforts are vital, long-term success in safeguarding biodiversity requires a unified, global network. For instance, without harmonized surveillance and response systems, individual institutions cannot effectively track pathogens across borders or share diagnostic capabilities. The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) Collaborating Centre Network for Wildlife Health—WOAH-WildNet—was established to bridge these gaps. By fostering global collaboration, sharing resources, and enabling data exchange, WOAH-WildNet provides a transformative, systems-based approach to wildlife health, managing risks, and enhancing ecosystem resilience. Central to this mission is breaking down silos to promote intersectoral coordinated responses to complex wildlife health challenges.

PLOS Sustainability and Transformation↗
USGS2019

A mosaic of land tenure and ownership creates challenges and opportunities for transboundary conservation in the US-Mexico borderlands

In the Madrean Sky Islands of western North America, a mixture of public and private land ownership and tenure creates a complex situation for collaborative efforts in conservation. In this case study, we describe the current ownership and management structures in the US-Mexico borderlands where social, political, and economic conditions create extreme pressures on the environment and challenges for conservation. On the US side of the border, sky island mountain ranges are almost entirely publicly owned and managed by federal, state and tribal organizations that manage and monitor species, habitats, and disturbances including fire. In contrast, public lands are scarce in the adjacent mountain ranges of Mexico, rather, a unique system of private parcels and communal lands make up most of Mexico's Natural Protected Areas. Several of the Protected Area reserves in Mexico form a matrix that serves to connect scattered habitats for jaguars dispersing northward toward public and private reserves in the U.S. from their northernmost breeding areas in Mexico. Despite administrative or jurisdictional boundaries superimposed upon the landscape, we identify two unifying management themes that encourage collaborative management of transboundary landscape processes and habitat connectivity: jaguar conservation and wildfire management. Our case study promotes understanding of conservation challenges as they are perceived and managed in a diversity of settings across the US-Mexico borderlands. Ultimately, recognizing the unique and important contributions of people living and working under different systems of land ownership and tenure will open doors for partnerships in achieving common goals.

Arizona, Baja California, California, Chihuahua, N↗
USGS2008

Decreased mortality of lake michigan chinook salmon after bacterial kidney disease challenge: Evidence for pathogen-driven selection?

In the late 1960s, Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the Green River, Washington, were successfully introduced into Lake Michigan. During spring from1988 to 1992, large fish die-offs affecting Chinook salmon occurred in the lake. Multiple ecological factors probably contributed to the severity of the fish kills, but the only disease agent found regularly was Renibacterium salmoninarum, the causative agent of bacterial kidney disease. in this study, survival after challenge by R. salmoninarum was compared between two Chinook salmon stocks: a Lake Michigan stock from Wisconsin (WI) and the progenitor stock from the Green River. We found that the WI stock had significantly greater survival than the Green River stock. Next, the WI and Green River stocks were exposed to the marine pathogen Listonella anguillarum (formerly Vibrio anguillarum), one of the causative agents of vibriosis; survival after this challenge was significantly poorer for the WI stock than for the Green River stock. A close genetic relationship between the Green River and WI stocks was confirmed by analyzing 13 microsatellite loci. These results collectively suggest that disease susceptibility of Lake Michigan Chinook salmon has diverged from that of the source population, possibly in response to pathogen-driven selection. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Journal of Aquatic Animal Health↗
USGS2026

Opportunities and challenges for incorporating lithium-ion batteries into geophysical power systems

Batteries play a critical role at seismic and other geophysical stations in ensuring that the equipment receives uninterrupted power to make continuous observations of the Earth. Often sited in remote environments under a wide range of environmental conditions, these stations have almost ubiquitously used conventional lead‐acid batteries. However, recent advances in rechargeable lithium‐ion battery technology have led to the development of lithium‐iron phosphate (LFP) batteries that can replace lead‐acid batteries in energy storage systems. In the past three years, LFP battery production has grown over an order of magnitude, reducing their cost and increasing their availability. In this article, we examine the benefits and challenges associated with incorporating several types of LFP batteries into the power systems of geophysical stations. We review how fundamental differences in battery chemistry enable LFP batteries to weigh less than half of comparable lead‐acid batteries and may have longer service lives but have the added complexity of being managed by an integrated battery monitoring system (BMS) microcontroller. Through a controlled heat chamber experiment, we demonstrate that LFP batteries can be ideally suited for use in high‐temperature environments by offering longer service lives than lead‐acid batteries. However, for safety reasons, the BMS prevents most LFP batteries from being charged at temperatures <0°C, which complicates their use in colder regions and can lead to equipment damage if the charging system is not appropriately designed for this battery type. Finally, we address some of the unique challenges associated with adopting lithium batteries, including unexpected substantial (≤14 W) power consumption from the BMS, safety concerns, and shipping restrictions. It is our goal to help inform station operators and geophysicists about potential benefits and issues that can arise from using LFP batteries at seismic and geophysical stations in a range of environments.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2013

Counting at low concentrations: the statistical challenges of verifying ballast water discharge standards

Discharge from the ballast tanks of ships is one of the primary vectors of nonindigenous species in marine environments. To mitigate this environmental and economic threat, international, national, and state entities are establishing regulations to limit the concentration of living organisms that may be discharged from the ballast tanks of ships. The proposed discharge standards have ranged from zero detectable organisms to <10 organisms/m 3 . If standard sampling methods are used, verifying whether ballast discharge complies with these stringent standards will be challenging due to the inherent stochasticity of sampling. Furthermore, at low concentrations, very large volumes of water must be sampled to find enough organisms to accurately estimate concentration. Despite these challenges, adequate sampling protocols comprise a critical aspect of establishing standards because they help define the actual risk level associated with a standard. A standard that appears very stringent may be effectively lax if it is paired with an inadequate sampling protocol. We describe some of the statistical issues associated with sampling at low concentrations to help regulators understand the uncertainties of sampling as well as to inform the development of sampling protocols that ensure discharge standards are adequately implemented.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2006

Monitoring biological diversity: strategies, tools, limitations, and challenges

Monitoring is an assessment of the spatial and temporal variability in one or more ecosystem properties, and is an essential component of adaptive management. Monitoring can help determine whether mandated environmental standards are being met and can provide an early-warning system of ecological change. Development of a strategy for monitoring biological diversity will likely be most successful when based upon clearly articulated goals and objectives and may be enhanced by including several key steps in the process. Ideally, monitoring of biological diversity will measure not only composition, but also structure and function at the spatial and temporal scales of interest. Although biodiversity monitoring has several key limitations as well as numerous theoretical and practical challenges, many tools and strategies are available to address or overcome such challenges; I summarize several of these. Due to the diversity of spatio-temporal scales and comprehensiveness encompassed by existing definitions of biological diversity, an effective monitoring design will reflect the desired sampling domain of interest and its key stressors, available funding, legal requirements, and organizational goals.

Northwestern Naturalist↗
USGS2003

The challenge of archiving and preserving remotely sensed data

Few would question the need to archive the scientific and technical (S&T) data generated by researchers. At a minimum, the data are needed for change analysis. Likewise, most people would value efforts to ensure the preservation of the archived S&T data. Future generations will use analysis techniques not even considered today. Until recently, archiving and preserving these data were usually accomplished within existing infrastructures and budgets. As the volume of archived data increases, however, organizations charged with archiving S&T data will be increasingly challenged (U.S. General Accounting Office, 2002). The U.S. Geological Survey has had experience in this area and has developed strategies to deal with the mountain of land remote sensing data currently being managed and the tidal wave of expected new data. The Agency has dealt with archiving issues, such as selection criteria, purging, advisory panels, and data access, and has met with preservation challenges involving photographic and digital media. That experience has allowed the USGS to develop management approaches, which this paper outlines.

Data Science Journal↗
USGS2006

Vaccination as a potential means to prevent plague in black-footed ferrets: Progress and continuing challenges

This study was conducted to further assess the feasibility of vaccinating black-footed ferrets ( Mustela nigripes ) against plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis ). On days 0 and 28, 17 postreproductive ferrets were immunized by subcutaneous injection with a recombinant fusion protein containing F1 and V antigens from Y. pestis. Another 17 animals received a placebo by the same route. Two weeks after the second immunization, mean antibody titers to Y. pestis F1 and V antigens were measured and found to be significantly higher in vaccinates than their preimmunization values (P < 0.0001) and significantly higher than the control values (P < 0.0001). Six months postimmunization, 16 vaccinates and eight controls were challenged with approximately 8,000 colony forming units of virulent plague by subcutaneous inoculation. Eleven of 16 vaccinates (69 percent) survived with no ill effects whereas all eight control animals died within 3a??6 days. Two months later, the 11 surviving vaccinates were challenged again by ingestion of a plague-infected mouse. None of the animals showed any ill effects and all survived. In contrast, seven control ferrets fed infected mice died within 2a??4 days, including one animal that did not actually ingest the mouse but was likely exposed to it. This study demonstrates that immunization of ferrets with the recombinant F1-V fusion protein can induce significant antibody responses and reduce their susceptibility to plague infection.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2007

Facing tomorrow’s challenges—U.S. Geological Survey science in the decade 2007–2017

Executive Summary In order for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to respond to evolving national and global priorities, it must periodically reflect on, and optimize, its strategic directions. This report is the first comprehensive science strategy since the early 1990s to examine critically major USGS science goals and priorities. The development of this science strategy comes at a time of global trends and rapidly evolving societal needs that pose important natural-science challenges. The emergence of a global economy affects the demand for all resources. The last decade has witnessed the emergence of a new model for managing Federal lands—ecosystem-based management. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program predicts that the next few decades will see rapid changes in the Nation’s and the Earth’s environment. Finally, the natural environment continues to pose risks to society in the form of volcanoes, earthquakes, wildland fires, floods, droughts, invasive species, variable and changing climate, and natural and anthropogenic toxins, as well as animal-borne diseases that affect humans. The use of, and competition for, natural resources on the global scale, and natural threats to those resources, has the potential to impact the Nation’s ability to sustain its economy, national security, quality of life, and natural environment. Responding to these national priorities and global trends requires a science strategy that not only builds on existing USGS strengths and partnerships but also demands the innovation made possible by integrating the full breadth and depth of USGS capabilities. The USGS chooses to go forward in the science directions proposed here because the societal issues addressed by these science directions represent major challenges for the Nation’s future and for the stewards of Federal lands, both onshore and offshore. The six science directions proposed in this science strategy are summarized in the following paragraphs. The ecosystems strategy is listed first because it has a dual nature. It is itself an essential direction for the USGS to pursue to meet a pressing national and global need, but ecosystem-based approaches are also an underpinning of the other five directions, which all require ecosystem perspectives and tools for their execution. The remaining strategic directions are listed in alphabetical order.

Circular↗