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USGS2025

Invited perspectives: Integrating hydrologic information into the next generation of landslide early warning systems

Although rainfall-triggered landslides are initiated by subsurface hydro-mechanical processes related to the loading, weakening, and eventual failure of slope materials, most landslide early warning systems (LEWS) have relied solely on rainfall event information. In previous decades, several studies demonstrated the value of integrating proxies for subsurface hydrologic information to improve rainfall-based forecasting of shallow landslides. More recently, broader access to commercial sensors and telemetry for real-time data transmission has invigorated new research into hydrometeorological thresholds for LEWS. Given the increasing number of studies across the globe using hydrologic monitoring, mathematical modeling, or both in combination, it is now possible to make some insights into the advantages versus limitations of this approach. The extensive progress demonstrates the value of in situ hydrologic information for reducing both failed and false alarms, through the ability to characterize infiltration during, as well as the drainage and drying processes between major storm events. There are also some areas for caution surrounding the long-term sustainability of subsurface monitoring in landslide-prone terrain, as well as unresolved questions in hillslope hydrologic modeling, which relies heavily on the assumptions of diffuse flow and vertical infiltration but often ignores preferential flow and lateral drainage. Here, we share a collective perspective based on our previous collaborative work across Europe, North America, Africa, and Asia to discuss these challenges and provide some guidelines for integrating knowledge of hydrology and climate into the next generation of LEWS. We propose that the greatest opportunity for improvement is through a measure-and-model approach to develop an understanding of landslide hydro-climatology that accounts for local controls on subsurface storage dynamics. Additionally, new efforts focused on the subsurface hydrology are complementary to existing rainfall-based methods, so leveraging these with near-term precipitation forecasts is a priority for increasing lead times.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

U.S. Geological Survey—Department of the Interior, Region 11, Alaska—2023–24 biennial science report

Introduction U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mission—The USGS national mission is to monitor, analyze, and predict the current and evolving dynamics of complex human and natural Earth-system interactions and to deliver actionable information at scales and timeframes relevant to decision makers. Consistent with the national mission, the USGS in Alaska provides timely and objective scientific information to help address issues and inform management decisions across five interconnected focus areas: Energy and Minerals; Geospatial Mapping; Natural Hazards; Water Quality, Streamflow, and Ice Dynamics; and Ecosystems. The USGS in Alaska consists of approximately 350 scientists and support staff working in 3 Alaska-based science centers. USGS science activities are also initiated by the Cooperative Research Unit and USGS centers outside Alaska. In the last 5 years, USGS research in Alaska has produced many scientific benefits resulting from more than 900 publications. Publications relevant to Alaska can be conveniently searched by keyword through the USGS Publications Warehouse at https://pubs.usgs.gov/.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Groundwater-Surface water interactions research: Past trends and future directions

Interactions between groundwater and surface water sustain groundwater-dependent ecosystems and regulate river temperature and biogeochemical cycles, amongst many other processes. These interactions occur in freshwater environments including rivers, springs, lakes, and wetlands, and in coastal environments via tidal pumping, submarine groundwater discharge, and seawater intrusion. Here, we explore groundwater-surface water interactions research using bibliometric analyses of titles, abstracts, and keywords from 20,275 journal papers published between 1970 and 2023 extracted from Scopus. Analyses show that research into groundwater-surface water interactions is highly multi-disciplinary, with growing contributions from the social and biological sciences. The number of groundwater-surface water interactions papers is rapidly increasing with over 1200 papers published per year since 2020. Drawing on our data-driven approach and expert knowledge, we synthesise current research trends and identify critical future research directions. Despite the thousands of papers on groundwater-surface water interactions, important processes are still difficult to quantify or predict at meaningful spatial scales to inform water-resources management. We see benefits in future groundwater-surface water interactions research focusing on: (1) using new technologies including internet-of-things-based sensors, uncrewed vehicles, and remote-sensing approaches for data collection to inform groundwater-surface water interactions at large scales, (2) seeking approaches to upscale site-specific findings to better inform management, and (3) continuing the movement towards multi-disciplinary investigations to better inform the understanding of groundwater-surface water interactions and processes that will enable better management outcomes.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2024

Influence of inherited structure on flexural extension in foreland basin systems: Evidence from the northern Arkoma basin and southern Ozark dome, USA

Extensional faults are key components of foreland basin systems. They form within the upper crust in response to flexure of the lithosphere and accommodate subsidence within the foredeep and forebulge depozones. Such faults are excellent proxies for orogenic system evolution and control the distribution of natural resources and hazards. However, the spatiotemporal evolution of flexural extension has not been documented previously at a regional scale, thereby limiting our understanding of underlying geodynamic controls. Here, we resolve late Paleozoic flexural extension in the northern Arkoma basin and southern Ozark dome, USA. We synthesize a large database of previous mapping, existing research, subsurface data, and geophysical data into 3D geologic and 2D kinematic models. Mesh surfaces representing several key horizons from the Carboniferous Period (ca. 335-306 Ma) were constructed. These surfaces were built from oil and gas well tops (n = ∼10,000) and surface geologic map contacts using an advanced kriging method. The mesh surfaces are offset by a complex 3D fault network, allowing detailed analysis of along-strike and down-dip variations in fault displacement. Analysis of the 3D model reveals a regular and repeated fault segmentation pattern wherein E -W striking, left- and foreland-stepping en échelon normal faults are segmented by inherited NE striking basement faults. Maximum vertical separation along the E -W normal faults is generally focused between the inherited NE-trending faults. This suggests that the inherited basement faults delocalized extensional strain during late Paleozoic normal faulting. Maximum vertical separation and fault localization may correlate to areas with high-amplitude positive magnetic anomalies interpreted as Mesoproterozoic granitic rocks. Speculative covariance of magnetic anomalies and fault displacements implies that the relatively strong basement granite concentrated stress, leading to localized faulting within the relatively thin sedimentary cover. Lastly, we show that flexural extension migrated southeast to northwest from the Chesterian-Morrowan (ca. 335-319 Ma) to the Desmoinesian (ca. 306 Ma). The migratory flexural extension may be explained by diachronous loading during Pangean assembly, or by synchronous loading but variable load compensation due to inherent factors.

Arkansas, Oklahoma↗

USGS2024

Isotopic evaluation of the National Water Model reveals missing agricultural irrigation contributions to streamflow across the western United States

The National Water Model (NWM) provides critical analyses and projections of streamflow that support water management decisions. However, the NWM performs poorly in lower-elevation rivers of the western United States (US). The accuracy of the NWM depends on the fidelity of the model inputs and the representation and calibration of model processes and water sources. To evaluate the NWM performance in the western US, we compared observations of river water isotope ratios ( 18 O / "> 16 O and 2 H / "> 1 H expressed in δ notation) to NWM-flux-estimated (model) river reach isotope ratios. The modeled estimates were calculated from long-term (2000–2019) mean summer (June, July, and August) NWM hydrologic fluxes and gridded isotope ratios using a mass balance approach. The observational dataset comprised 4503 in-stream water isotope observations in 877 reaches across 5 basins. A simple regression between observed and modeled isotope ratios explained 57.9 % ( δ 18 O) and 67.1 % ( δ 2 H) of variance, although observations were 0.5 ‰ ( δ 18 O) and 4.8 ‰ ( δ 2 H) higher, on average, than mass balance estimates. The unexplained variance suggest that the NWM does not include all relevant water fluxes to rivers. To infer possible missing water fluxes, we evaluated patterns in observation–model differences using δ 18 O diff ( δ 18 O obs − δ 18 O mod ) and d diff ( δ 2 H diff - 8 ⋅ δ 18 O diff "> ). We detected evidence of evaporation in observations but not model estimates (negative d diff and positive δ 18 O diff ) at lower-elevation, higher-stream-order, arid sites. The catchment actual-evaporation-to-precipitation ratio, the fraction of streamflow estimated to be derived from agricultural irrigation, and whether a site was reservoir-affected were all significant predictors of d diff in a linear mixed-effects model, with up to 15.2 % of variance explained by fixed effects. This finding is supported by seasonal patterns, groundwater levels, and isotope ratios, and it suggests the importance of including irrigation return flows to rivers, especially in lower-elevation, higher-stream-order, arid rivers of the western US.

Hydrology and Earth Systems Science↗

USGS2024

Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall

Communities downstream of burned steep lands face increases in debris-flow hazards due to fire effects on soil and vegetation. Rapid postfire hazard assessments have traditionally focused on quantifying spatial variations in debris-flow likelihood and volume in response to design rainstorms. However, a methodology that provides estimates of debris-flow inundation downstream of burned areas based on forecast rainfall would provide decision-makers with information that directly addresses the potential for downstream impacts. We introduce a framework that integrates a 24 h lead-time ensemble precipitation forecast with debris-flow likelihood, volume, and runout models to produce probabilistic maps of debris-flow inundation. We applied this framework to simulate debris-flow inundation associated with the 9 January 2018 debris-flow event in Montecito, California, USA. When the observed debris-flow volumes were used to drive the probabilistic forecast model, analysis of the simulated inundation probabilities demonstrates that the model is both reliable and sharp. In the fully predictive model, however, in which debris-flow likelihood and volume were computed from the atmospheric model ensemble's predictions of peak 15 min rainfall intensity, I 15 , the model generally under-forecasted the inundation area. The observed peak I 15 lies in the upper tail of the atmospheric model ensemble spread; thus a large fraction of ensemble members forecast lower I 15 than observed. Using these I 15 values as input to the inundation model resulted in lower-than-observed flow volumes which translated into under-forecasting of the inundation area. Even so, approximately 94 % of the observed inundated area was forecast to have an inundation probability greater than 1 %, demonstrating that the observed extent of inundation was generally captured within the range of outcomes predicted by the model. Sensitivity analyses indicate that debris-flow volume and two parameters associated with debris-flow mobility exert significant influence on inundation predictions, but reducing uncertainty in postfire debris-flow volume predictions will have the largest impact on reducing inundation outcome uncertainty. This study represents a first step toward a near-real-time hazard assessment product that includes probabilistic estimates of debris-flow inundation and provides guidance for future improvements to this and similar model frameworks by identifying key sources of uncertainty.

California↗

USGS2026

Long-term monotonic trends in water budget components in the contiguous United States: Insights from two hydrologic models

Characterizing changes to water availability for domestic, industrial, agricultural, and other uses is essential to support water management. To better quantify these changes, the U.S. Geological Survey and National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research produced two hydrologic models simulating water budget components from 1980 to 2021 over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Both hydrologic models were driven by a common atmospheric forcing dataset and aggregated to common spatial and temporal scales, which enables a novel evaluation of congruency between the models. We present annual and seasonal trends in six water budget components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, groundwater recharge, soil saturation, and snow water equivalent) based on the Mann–Kendall test for monotonic trend and Theil-Sen slope estimate for the water year 1983–2021 period for ~86,000 catchments in CONUS. Additional components and metrics from our analysis pipeline are available in an associated published dataset, which contains more than 46 million trend results. The water budget trends showed broad agreement with prior observational and modeling studies that indicate increasing trends in the northeast and decreasing trends in southwestern CONUS. We found the seasonal variability in water budget trends was greatest in the southern, central, and northwest CONUS. These findings support integrated trend assessments when coupled with trends in water quality and use.

Contiguous United States↗

USGS2025

Estimation of dynamic geologic CO2 storage resources in the Illinois Basin, including effects of brine extraction, anisotropy, and hydrogeologic heterogeneity

Since the vast majority of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage resources in the United States are in deep saline aquifers, optimizing the use of these saline storage resources could be crucial for efficient development of geologic CO 2 storage (GCS) resources and basin- or larger-scale deployment of GCS in the country. Maximum CO 2 injection rates can be enhanced by extracting brine from the CO 2 storage unit. However, disposal of the extracted brine is both a technological and economic challenge. The lowest-cost option would likely be reinjection of the extracted brine into another formation above or below the CO 2 storage unit. Therefore, it is important to estimate brine injectivity as it will constrain the potential to increase CO 2 injectivity at an injection site that has access to multiple geologic storage units where either CO 2 or brine can be injected. Using a simulation-optimization framework, coupled with a non-isothermal, multiphase CO 2 -water-salt equation-of-state module, we developed a computationally efficient method for evaluating optimization of simultaneous CO 2 injection, brine extraction, and brine (re)injection at hypothetical injection sites deployed across a geologic basin. The Illinois basin is ideal for testing our methodology because it contains multiple geologic storage units with seals in between them to isolate injection of CO 2 in one unit from interfering with the injection of either brine or CO 2 in another unit above or below it. In addition, we investigated the relative effects of variation in key geologic parameters as well as two reservoir structures (hydrogeologic heterogeneity/anisotropy and homogeneity/isotropy) on CO 2 injectivities and enhancement of CO 2 injectivity through extracting brine. Results suggest that permeability, depth, and especially thickness of the storage unit could be the most influential parameters determining CO 2 injectivity. They also suggest that only injecting CO 2 into the storage unit with the greatest injectivity, enhancing that unit’s injectivity by extracting brine, and disposing of the produced brine in other suitable units could maximize total CO 2 injectivity in limited regions of the basin. At the majority of simulated injection sites, however, we found that injecting CO 2 into all of the accessible and suitable storage units was more likely to maximize the CO 2 storage resource.

Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana↗

USGS2024

A benchmark dataset and workflow for landslide susceptibility zonation

Landslide susceptibility shows the spatial likelihood of landslide occurrence in a specific geographical area and is a relevant tool for mitigating the impact of landslides worldwide. As such, it is the subject of countless scientific studies. Many methods exist for generating a susceptibility map, mostly falling under the definition of statistical or machine learning. These models try to solve a classification problem: given a collection of spatial variables, and their combination associated with landslide presence or absence, a model should be trained, tested to reproduce the target outcome, and eventually applied to unseen data. Contrary to many fields of science that use machine learning for specific tasks, no reference data exist to assess the performance of a given method for landslide susceptibility. Here, we propose a benchmark dataset consisting of 7360 slope units encompassing an area of about 4,100 km 2 "> 4,100 km 2 in Central Italy. Using the dataset, we tried to answer two open questions in landslide research: (1) what effect does the human variability have in creating susceptibility models; (2) how can we develop a reproducible workflow for allowing meaningful model comparisons within the landslide susceptibility research community. With these questions in mind, we released a preliminary version of the dataset, along with a “call for collaboration,” aimed at collecting different calculations using the proposed data, and leaving the freedom of implementation to the respondents. Contributions were different in many respects, including classification methods, use of predictors, implementation of training/validation, and performance assessment. That feedback suggested refining the initial dataset, and constraining the implementation workflow. This resulted in a final benchmark dataset and landslide susceptibility maps obtained with many classification methods. Values of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve obtained with the final benchmark dataset were rather similar, as an effect of constraints on training, cross–validation, and use of data. Brier score results show larger variability, instead, ascribed to different model predictive abilities. Correlation plots show similarities between results of different methods applied by the same group, ascribed to a residual implementation dependence. We stress that the experiment did not intend to select the “best” method but only to establish a first benchmark dataset and workflow, that may be useful as a standard reference for calculations by other scholars. The experiment, to our knowledge, is the first of its kind for landslide susceptibility modeling. The data and workflow presented here comparatively assess the performance of independent methods for landslide susceptibility and we suggest the benchmark approach as a best practice for quantitative research in geosciences.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2024

Editorial: From cold seeps to hydrothermal vents: Geology, chemistry, microbiology, and ecology in marine and coastal environments

This Research Topic compiles contemporary studies on cold seeps, hydrothermal vents, mud volcanoes, and related seafloor features that are associated with focused fluid emissions and the transfer of carbon, other chemical species, and sometimes heat from the geosphere to the ocean. Because these features sometimes tap fluids and gas originating kilometers below the seafloor, they provide an important window into deep processes that are otherwise inaccessible to scientists. At the shallow portion of their journey, migrating fluids nearing the seafloor contribute to a range of unique biological, physical, and chemical processes within the sediments themselves and at the sediment-water interface. Seafloor fluid emissions play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycles, ocean chemistry, and possibly even climate change. Seafloor leakage points often emit hydrocarbon gases (especially methane and CO 2 ) and are sometimes the loci for deposition of seafloor minerals that have economic value. A burgeoning area of research focuses on natural products generated at these features, seeking compounds with potential pharmaceutical or other applications. Multidisciplinary studies have become routine for characterization of seafloor fluid emission sites, attesting to the inseparability of geologic, physical, chemical, and biological processes in these settings. It is increasingly common for researchers to combine in a single research cruise: subbottom imaging and seafloor mapping; porewater and water column geochemistry and gas sampling; sediment retrieval for lithologic, biostratigraphic, and solid phase analyses; and studies of benthic and subseafloor communities at the microbial to macrofaunal scales. This multidisciplinary approach has the advantage of ensuring the spatial and temporal coincidence of surveys and samples, an important factor at highly dynamic seafloor fluid emission sites. In addition, researchers often use remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), or human-occupied vehicles (HOVs) to record video of the seafloor, compile photomosaics, collect targeted samples, and survey with high-resolution geophysical near-seafloor systems, providing a degree of detail about seafloor fluid emission sites that is unprecedented compared to most areas of the deep ocean. While rarer, long-term cabled observatories or shorter-term deployments of portable observatories are also used at some loci for seafloor fluid flux and are particularly helpful for capturing temporal variations at these dynamic features. Here we summarize the Research Topic’s contribution to multidisciplinary seafloor emission studies in the categories of cold seeps, mud volcanoes, and hydrothermal vents. Figure 1 shows the geographic distribution of the studies in this Research Topic and key features referred to in this Introduction.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗

USGS2026

Guidelines for producing integrated 210Pb and 14C age-models

Accurate reconstructions of past environmental changes are crucial in paleoecological research and require reliable chronologies of sedimentary archives. Establishing robust age-models and obtaining the most appropriate proxies for analysis is a complex scientific endeavor, requiring extensive resources and collaboration among specialists, including radiochronologists. Radiometric dating methods, such as 210 Pb and radiocarbon ( 14 C), are frequently employed to establish chronologies in aquatic sedimentary deposits and peat bogs. In this study, we review key aspects of sampling, analysis, and the principles underlying 210 Pb and 14 C age-models, focusing on methods for developing robust joint chronologies for paleoenvironmental research. Drawing largely from the authors' experiences and group discussions during and after a scientific workshop in 2022, we discuss important considerations for site selection, sampling strategies, and radiometric dating to construct integrated 210 Pb and 14 C age-models. Using expert consensus, this group – called Paleostats – aims to provide a set of best practices for other geochronologists with this methods paper. Among our conclusions, we emphasize the importance of accounting for site-specific factors such as prior information on sedimentation rates to establish appropriate sampling and analytical strategies. The use of appropriate coring devices can minimize disturbance to sediments and ensure the core surface remains intact and preserved until sectioning. Where excess 210 Pb is expected, sectioning at intervals of ≤1 cm provides an adequate sampling resolution for 210 Pb dating. Exceptions are possible, allowing for ~2–3 cm sections in areas with confirmed high sedimentation rates (e.g., > 1 cm yr −1 ). Recovering deeper core sections for 14 C dating with sufficient overlap allows for accounting errors in depth estimates made in the field. Special attention is advised during time intervals where validation proxies, such as the human-made radionuclides 137 Cs or post-bomb 14 C, are expected, and to determine the depth of secular equilibrium between 210 Pb and 226 Ra. Radiocarbon analyses are commonly performed by accelerator mass spectrometry, and age models are constructed mainly using Bayesian statistics with Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques (e.g., Bacon ). A Bayesian approach ( Plum ) is now available for producing 210 Pb age-models, which infers the 210 Pb ex flux, eliminates the need for selecting an equilibrium depth, and allows dating cores with incomplete 210 Pb ex inventory. Plum offers improved chronologies by integrating raw 210 Pb and 14 C data, and these age-models can be enriched with other dating methodologies, such as identifying tephras and other well-recorded historical events. Harmonized reporting would contribute to making radiometric age-models reproducible, which would benefit from an international effort. Using 210 Pb and 14 C to produce integrated age-models may yield better insights into the interplay between natural and recent anthropogenic forcings on ecosystems. This can enhance our understanding of environmental processes and their impacts on climate change, ultimately supporting science-based assessments and decisions.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2025

Constraining landslide frequency across the United States to inform county-level risk reduction

Informative landslide hazard estimates are needed to support landslide mitigation strategies to reduce landslide risk across the United States. Whereas existing national-scale landslide susceptibility products assess where landslides are likely to occur, they do not address how often , which is a critical element of landslide hazard and risk assessments. In particular, the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index (NRI) requires landslide frequency estimates to inform expected annual loss estimates. We present county-level landslide frequency (landslides per area per year) estimates for the 50 US states. We applied Bayesian negative binomial regression to estimate both the expected (average) reported landslide frequency and full distribution of annual landslide counts for each county. We compared a suite of models that used combinations of landslide-susceptible area, probability of potentially triggering earthquakes, frequency of potentially triggering precipitation, and ecological region as predictors. We trained our models with landslide inventory data from counties with the most comprehensive records available nationwide and used zero-inflated negative binomial distributions as an incompleteness model to correct for temporal reporting gaps. We selected a preferred frequency model to inform the NRI based on information criteria and physically plausible parameter estimates. The model showed that average annual reported landslide frequencies vary by 5 orders of magnitude across US counties, ranging from 0.002 (0.00015–0.05) landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 in Kusilvak Census Area, Alaska, to 29 (19–46) landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 in Lake County, California, reflecting the country's strong variations in landslide susceptibility, earthquake probability, and other factors for which ecological region serves as a proxy. Counties with estimated frequencies in the top 20 % of all counties are predominately along the West Coast of the continental United States, in mountainous regions of the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West, in locally steep or earthquake-prone regions of the Midwest and Southeast, along the Appalachians, in southern and southeastern Alaska, and on some Hawaiian islands. By examining the number of landslides predicted in 99th percentile years for each county, we identified that 26 % of US counties likely have potential for widespread landsliding with more than 10 landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 , even when such large events have not been reported in the training data for that county. Overall, our results better represent the range of possible landslide frequencies and spatial variations than previous national-scale estimates reported in the NRI, and our approach can inform other risk-reduction and loss-mitigation efforts across the United States and globally.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2025

System characterization report on the Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program (EnMAP)

This report addresses system characterization of the Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program hyperspectral sensor by the DLR (German Aerospace Center, ground segment project management), GFZ (Deutsches Geoforschungszentrum, science lead) and is part of a series of system characterization reports produced and delivered by the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence. These reports present and detail the methodology and procedures for characterization; present technical and operational information about the EnMAP hyperspectral sensor; and provide a summary of test measurements, data retention practices, data analysis results, and conclusions. The Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence system characterization team completed data analyses to characterize the geometric (interior and exterior), and radiometric performances of the EnMAP hyperspectral sensor. Results of these analyses indicate that the Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program has a band-to-band geometric performance in the range of −0.135 to 0.15 pixel, geometric performance relative to the Operational Land Imager in the range of −27.716 meters (−0.92 pixel) to 32.892 meters (1.09 pixels) offset in comparison to Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, offset of a radiometric comparison in the range of −0.012 to 0.020, slope of a radiometric comparison in the range of 0.947 to 1.031.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Permafrost–wildfire interactions: active layer thickness estimates for paired burned and unburned sites in northern high latitudes

As the northern high-latitude permafrost zone experiences accelerated warming, permafrost has become vulnerable to widespread thaw. Simultaneously, wildfire activity across northern boreal forest and Arctic/subarctic tundra regions impacts permafrost stability through the combustion of insulating organic matter, vegetation, and post-fire changes in albedo. Efforts to synthesis the impacts of wildfire on permafrost are limited and are typically reliant on antecedent pre-fire conditions. To address this, we created the FireALT dataset by soliciting data contributions that included thaw depth measurements, site conditions, and fire event details with paired measurements at environmentally comparable burned and unburned sites. The solicitation resulted in 52 466 thaw depth measurements from 18 contributors across North America and Russia. Because thaw depths were taken at various times throughout the thawing season, we also estimated end-of-season active layer thickness (ALT) for each measurement using a modified version of the Stefan equation. Here, we describe our methods for collecting and quality-checking the data, estimating ALT, the data structure, strengths and limitations, and future research opportunities. The final dataset includes 48 669 ALT estimates with 32 attributes across 9446 plots and 157 burned–unburned pairs spanning Canada, Russia, and the United States. The data span fire events from 1900 to 2022 with measurements collected from 2001 to 2023. The time since fire ranges from 0 to 114 years. The FireALT dataset addresses a key challenge: the ability to assess impacts of wildfire on ALT when measurements are taken at various times throughout the thaw season depending on the time of field campaigns (typically June through August) by estimating ALT at the end-of-season maximum. This dataset can be used to address understudied research areas, particularly algorithm development, calibration, and validation for evolving process-based models as well as extrapolating across space and time, which could elucidate permafrost–wildfire interactions under accelerated warming across the high-northern-latitude permafrost zone. The FireALT dataset is available through the Arctic Data Center ( https://doi.org/10.18739/A2RN3092P , Talucci et al., 2024).

Arctic↗

USGS2024

Long-term communication of aftershock forecasts: The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand

On 14 February 2016, a magnitude (M)5.7 earthquake struck in Christchurch New Zealand (Aotearoa in the Maori language). The shaking caused damage to historic facades, power outages, cliff collapses, rock falls, and liquefaction but no reported injuries or fatalities. This Valentine’s Day earthquake was an aftershock in the Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES), which began on 4 September 2010 with the M7.1 Darfield Earthquake and included the destructive and fatal M6.2 Christchurch aftershock on 22 February 2011. This study, eight months after the Valentine’s Day earthquake and six years after the initiation of the CES, is the first to explore long-term aftershock forecast information and communication needs. The exploratory study also aimed to gather feedback on aftershock scenarios, an alternative form for communicating the forecast. The qualitative study involved workshops with emergency managers, public health officials, and members of the public in Christchurch. Key findings for long-term communication throughout an earthquake sequence include: 1. divergent earthquake experiences affect aftershock communication response and information needs; 2. understanding aftershock sequence behavior is foundational to sense-making when large aftershocks occur; 3. strategic earthquake sequence updates from the trusted science agency and local agencies could serve as important reminders for earthquake preparedness; 4. communication of aftershock forecast uncertainty could aid with both the credibility of the information and living with uncertainty, and 5. inclusion of impact information and preparedness advice into aftershock forecast scenarios could provide links to actionable information. The paper derives implications for research and practice of long-term communications during an aftershock sequence.

Christchurch↗

USGS2025

Meet the people where they are: Assessing user needs for aftershock forecast products in El Salvador, Mexico and the United States

Aftershock forecasts can help communities reduce their seismic risk by conveying how many aftershocks can be expected following a large earthquake, and how the expected number of aftershocks and their corresponding ground shaking evolves over time and space. Prior work finds that graphical forecast products may communicate such information better than only text or numbers. To identify which visual products can serve multiple user groups, we held workshops with members of several professions, including emergency managers, engineers, critical infrastructure operators, public health specialists, science communicators, and more. We conducted these workshops in El Salvador, Mexico and the United States to understand which forecast products may be effective across different countries. In these workshops, users performed small-group activities to elicit the types of aftershock forecast information that would support decisions in their respective roles and how this information would optimally be displayed. Maps of shaking hazards were frequently requested across all professions and countries, even for dissimilar forecast uses. The design of these maps, and other product needs, were differentiated by profession, country and other factors. Other forecast products, including those showing forecasts about the magnitudes and time periods of future aftershocks, also served a variety of users, but for different types of decisions. We found a greater variation in user needs by profession than by country, and that user needs also vary with time, communication channel and other contextual factors. We discuss practical implications for user-centered visual communication of operational aftershock forecasts.

International Journal for Disaster Risk Reduction↗

USGS2026

Deep subsurface organic-rich shale supports abundant, diverse, and novel fungi

As Earth’s principal reservoir of organic carbon and microbial biomass, the deep subsurface hosts microorganisms capable of mobilizing this once-sequestered carbon. Contrary to standard assumptions of eukaryotic scarcity, this study documents abundant fungal communities, ranging from 4.2 × 10 3 to 6.8 × 10 3 fungal cells mL −1 , across a methane-producing organic-rich shale 247–556 meters below the surface. Although fungal:bacterial cell ratios ranged from 1:7028 to 1:713, application of biomass conversion factors developed for oceanic systems yielded a median fungal:bacterial biomass ratio of 1:4.7. 16S rRNA gene amplicons revealed bacterial and archaeal communities mirroring those found in well-characterized extremophilic, carbon-degrading environments, while sequencing of 18S rRNA gene and ITS rRNA spacer amplicons collectively identified a eukaryotic hotspot with 689 fungal OTUs across six phyla. The dominant fungal classes, Agaricomycetes and Dothideomycetes, are well-established degraders of recalcitrant carbon compounds at the surface, suggesting they may similarly contribute to organic matter degradation and ecosystem maintenance in the subsurface. Cultivation and isolation efforts yielded 205 fungal strains, including 13 candidate novel taxa, underscoring the deep subsurface as an underexplored eukaryotic habitat. Stable carbon isotopes indicate methane is predominantly generated via microbial conversion of the fossil carbon, while water isotopes suggest in situ geochemical conditions have been relatively stable since the Late Pleistocene, with subglacial recharge as a plausible mechanism for microbial introduction. Collectively, these findings suggest that fungi are underrecognized contributors to organic matter transformation and functional diversity in the deep biosphere, revealing a critical gap in our understanding of deep subsurface ecosystem processes.

Indiana, Michigan, Ohio↗

USGS2025

Refining the earthquake history of south-central Alaska through lake records

The Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone (AASZ) is one of the world's most seismically active plate boundaries and the source of the 1964 M w 9.2 Great Alaska earthquake–the second largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in the world. Understanding the nature and frequency of such earthquakes is necessary for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment, but instrumental and historical records that span less than 150 years are too short to allow a statistically reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence times. This calls for studies of evidence of past earthquakes, extending the earthquake catalog further back in time. Subduction-zone paleoseismology in south-central Alaska is predominantly based on coastal evidence of land-level changes and tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes and preserved in the geological record. A complementary approach is lacustrine paleoseismology, which is still a relatively young discipline in Alaska. However, globally, lake basins are well-established high-resolution and continuous recorders of paleoseismic activity along subduction zones, relying on the identification of underwater landslide deposits and turbidites generated by seismic shaking. As a result, lake basins not only register ground shaking from megathrust earthquakes, but also from intraslab and crustal earthquakes, which are typically not accompanied by significant land-level changes. In this review paper, we combine coastal and lacustrine paleoseismology approaches to refine the south-central Alaskan earthquake history by comparing the paleoseismic records from two lakes (i.e., Eklutna Lake, located in the Chugach Mountain Range, and Skilak Lake, situated on the Kenai Peninsula) with the coastal and crustal earthquake catalog in Alaska. The resulting age ranges of all known megathrust earthquakes involving the Alaskan megathrust between the Kodiak and Prince William Sound (PWS) sections are more precise and accurate for the last 1.3 kyrs BP than the previously published age ranges from coastal records. As a result, this study supports the following key conclusions: (1) The 1964 CE earthquake was an exceptionally strong and unique event in the last 2000 years, rupturing the PWS, Kenai, Barren Islands, and Kodiak sections simultaneously. (2) The high-resolution and seasonal markings of the varved lake records now disentangle for the first time closely timed earthquakes, which was not possible based on the coastal evidence alone. (3) No persistent megathrust rupture boundaries exist. So, the possibility of a full rupture of the entire eastern AASZ, from PWS to Semidi cannot be excluded. (4) The rupture pattern in the eastern AASZ reveals superimposed cycles of multi-asperity ruptures (1964 earthquake) and clustered complementary partial ruptures, or rupture cascades. (5) The PWS section hosts the largest asperity in the eastern AASZ. (6) The shaking record of megathrust earthquakes indicates a time-dependent (quasiperiodic) behavior for the study area, but the observation of complementary clusters means that the hazards will not drop to zero but instead may even increase for a neighboring section. (7) The time-independent behavior of intraplate earthquakes implies that the intraslab hazard did not decrease following the 2016 and 2018 earthquakes. This study utilizes an integrated approach for subduction zone paleoseismology as a solution for unraveling recurrence and rupture patterns in Alaska, which can be applied worldwide.

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