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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

Stable isotope analysis and satellite tracking reveal interspecific resource partitioning of nonbreeding albatrosses off Alaska

Albatrosses (Diomedeidae) are the most threatened family of birds globally. The three North Pacific species (Phoebastria Reichenbach, 1853) are listed as either endangered or vulnerable, with the population of Short-tailed Albatross (Phoebastria albatrus (Pallas, 1769)) less than 1% of its historical size. All North Pacific albatross species do not currently breed sympatrically, yet they do co-occur at-sea during the nonbreeding season. We incorporated stable isotope analysis with the first simultaneous satellite-tracking study of all three North Pacific albatross species while sympatric on summer (nonbreeding season) foraging grounds off Alaska. Carbon isotope ratios and tracking data identify differences in primary foraging domains of continental shelf and slope waters for Short-tailed Albatrosses and Black-footed Albatrosses (Phoebastria nigripes (Audubon, 1839)) versus oceanic waters for Laysan Albatrosses (Phoebastria immutabilis (Roths-child, 1893)). Short-tailed and Black-footed albatrosses also fed at higher trophic levels than Laysan Albatrosses. The relative trophic position of Black-footed and Laysan albatrosses, however, appears to differ between nonbreeding and breeding seasons. Spatial segregation also occurred at a broader geographic scale, with Short-tailed Albatrosses ranging more north into the Bering Sea than Black-footed Albatrosses, which ranged more to the southeast, and Laysan Albatrosses more to the southwest. Differences in carbon isotope ratios among North Pacific albatross species during the nonbreeding season likely reflect the relative proportion of neritic (more carbon enriched) versus oceanic (carbon depleted) derived nutrients, and possible differential use of fishery discards, rather than latitudinal differences in distribution.

Canadian Journal of Zoology↗

Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature to water limited by the end of the century.

Michigan;Minnesota;Wisconsin↗

Evaluating analytical approaches for estimating pelagic fish biomass using simulated fish communities

Pelagic fish assessments often combine large amounts of acoustic-based fish density data and limited midwater trawl information to estimate species-specific biomass density. We compared the accuracy of five apportionment methods for estimating pelagic fish biomass density using simulated communities with known fish numbers that mimic Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Ontario, representing a range of fish community complexities. Across all apportionment methods, the error in the estimated biomass generally declined with increasing effort, but methods that accounted for community composition changes with water column depth performed best. Correlations between trawl catch and the true species composition were highest when more fish were caught, highlighting the benefits of targeted trawling in locations of high fish density. Pelagic fish surveys should incorporate geographic and water column depth stratification in the survey design, use apportionment methods that account for species-specific depth differences, target midwater trawling effort in areas of high fish density, and include at least 15 midwater trawls. With relatively basic biological information, simulations of fish communities and sampling programs can optimize effort allocation and reduce error in biomass estimates.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

Brachyceratops, a ceratopsian dinosaur from the Two Medicine formation of Montana, with notes on associated fossil reptiles

The fossils on which this paper is based were collected by me and my assistant, Mr. J. F. Strayrer, during the summer of 1913, while working under the auspices of the United States Geological Survey on the Blackfeet Indian Reservation, in northwestern Montana. The specimens were obtained from exposures of the Two Medicine formation along Milk River near the Canadian boundary, in T. 37 N., R. 8 W., about 30 miles northwest of the town of Cut Bank, Mont., and along Two Medicine River in T. 31 N., R. 7 W., about 15 miles southwest of Cut Bank. Vertebrate remains were found at these places in, 1911 and 1912 by Eugene Stebinger, while he was engaged in Geological Survey work, and he was the first to note that the localities are good fields for finding specimens of fossil vertebrates. 2 Although the present collection is small, it is of considerable scientific interest because it supplements the collections made in neighboring areas by other investigators, and because it contains a new genus of Ceratopsia in addition to other recognizable specimens which afford evidence that considerably extends the geologic and geographic ranges of forms heretofore described. The beds from which the collection was made constitute the upper part of the Two Medicine formation, which includes the equivalent of the Judith River formation and some older beds. The fossiliferous beds are also the equivalent of the upper part of the Belly River formation as found in neighboring areas of Canada. The fauna of the American Judith River formation, although diversified, is very inadequately known. Many of the genera and species have been founded on specimens so scant and fragmentary that it is almost impossible to refer to them subsequently discovered and more perfect materials. Recent collections made by L. M. Lambe, of the Canada Geological Survey, and by Barnum Brown, of the American Museum of Natural History, from the Belly River formation along Red Deer River in Canada, however, have placed this fauna on a more solid basis. The purpose of this paper is to give as complete and detailed a description of the skeletal anatomy of Brachyceratops montanensis as the material at hand will permit and to discuss briefly, in systematic order, other forms represented by specimens in the collection made in 1913. I take this opportunity to express my thanks for assistance rendered and for courtesies extended at many times, both in the field and during the preparation of this report, by Messrs. M. R. Campbell, T. W. Stanton, and F. H. Knowlton, and especially by Mr. Eugene Stebinger, all of the United States Geological Survey.

Montana↗

Characterization and application of a quantitative DNA marker that discriminates sex in chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

A qualitative male-specific DNA marker (OT-24) was amplified by spPCR (single-primer polymerase chain reaction) from chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) DNA along with several non-sex-linked products. The termini of the male-specific product were sequenced, and a pair of PeR primers were constructed for marker-specific PCR amplification. Dual primer PCR (dpPCR), with the marker-specific primers, amplified a product from both nudes and females. The amount of dpPCR product amplified from males was at least 100-fold greater than that from females. The quantitative difference between males and females was consistent among geographically distinct populations from western U.S. rivers. In addition, DNA sequence analysis indicated that OT-24 was highly conserved among geographically distinct salmon populations. The qualitative spPCR product segregated through several genetic crosses indicating equal sex ratios among progeny. Identification of the male and female juveniles by dpPCR was consistent with the spPCR analysis. There was no tissue specificity observed by spPCR or dpPCR analysis of this marker. A rapid DNA extraction method and dpPCR analysis were used to nonlethally determine sex ratios in wild spring chinook salmon adults, withheld for genetic and behavioral studies, prior to their development of gross sexual differences in their external morphology.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

Characterization and application of a quantitative DNA marker that discriminates sex in Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha )

A qualitative male-specific DNA marker (OT-24) was amplified by spPCR (single-primer polymerase chain reaction) from chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) DNA along with several non-sex-linked products. The termini of the male-specific product were sequenced, and a pair of PeR primers were constructed for marker-specific PCR amplification. Dual primer PCR (dpPCR), with the marker-specific primers, amplified a product from both nudes and females. The amount of dpPCR product amplified from males was at least 100-fold greater than that from females. The quantitative difference between males and females was consistent among geographically distinct populations from western U.S. rivers. In addition, DNA sequence analysis indicated that OT-24 was highly conserved among geographically distinct salmon populations. The qualitative spPCR product segregated through several genetic crosses indicating equal sex ratios among progeny. Identification of the male and female juveniles by dpPCR was consistent with the spPCR analysis. There was no tissue specificity observed by spPCR or dpPCR analysis of this marker. A rapid DNA extraction method and dpPCR analysis were used to nonlethally determine sex ratios in wild spring chinook salmon adults, withheld for genetic and behavioral studies, prior to their development of gross sexual differences in their external morphology.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

Chemical analyses of surface waters in Oklahoma, September - December, 1944

A preliminary survey of the industrial quality of surface waters in Oklahoma was started in August, 1944, by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Resources and Planning Board, with the Oklahoma A. & M. College, Engineering Experiment Station and Department of Chemistry. From September to December, 1944, three hundred and fifteen samples were obtained at eighty-four points where gages are maintained for measurement of discharge. Daily samples were collected at six stations, namely: Illinois River near Gore, Oklahoma Cimarron River near Oilton, Oklahoma Canadian River near Whitefield, Oklahoma Washita River near Durwood, Oklahoma Red River near Gainesville, Texas Red River at Denison Dam, Texas Sport samples were collected at the remainder of the stations. The analyses of the spot samples were made largely in a laboratory provided by the Oklahoma A. & M. College, under the supervision of Dr. O.M. Smith, Head, Department of Chemistry; Dr. S.R. Wood, Associate Professor of Chemistry; and W.W. Hastings, U.S. Geological Survey. The daily samples were analyzed in the water resources laboratory of the Geological Survey at Austin, Texas. These data have been summarized in a report to the Oklahoma Planning and Resources Board prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey, March 1, 1945. The streams of Oklahoma are classified into two major drainage basins: the Arkansas River and the Red River and their tributaries. The attached analyses are arranged in geographical order for their respective drainage basins, with records listed in downstream order for stations on the main stem first, followed by the analyses for the tributaries. When available, the mean daily discharge is given for the analyses.

Oklahoma;Texas↗

The origin, distribution, and depositional history of gravel deposits on the Beaufort Sea Continental Shelf, Alaska

Two distinct gravel populations are present on the Beaufort Sea continental shelf. First, a geographically arcuate deposit that is convex seaward has been designated as the Chert Facies. This deposit is restricted to landward of the 10 meter bathymetric contour and west of Heald Point. The Chert Facies, originally a fluvial gravel deposit and probably part of the basal transgressive, represents reworked Gubik Formation. The Chert Facies is derived from the Brooks Range. The second population is the Dolomite Facies. This facies is a blanket deposit covering much of the shelf and occurs in most water depths greater than 10 meters. The Dolomite Facies extends on land into the Quaternary Gubik Formation east of Prudhoe Bay and probably to Point Barrow. Rocks of the Dolomite Facies are exotic to Alaska and represent ice rafted clasts. The distribution of the Dolomite Facies shelf gravel indicates an easterly source compatible with a proposed provenance surrounding the Amundsen Gulf of the Canadian Archipelago. Radiocarbon dates from undisturbed sediment underlying the gravel on the upper slope indicate that low Holocene sedimentation rates are the reason for gravel exposure in this region and on the outer shelf. Considerations of sea level fluctuations, possible times available for the transportation of gravel from the proposed source area to the study area, and radiocarbon dates indicate influxes of ice rafted debris during the mid-Wisconsin transgression and probably between 15, 000-10,000 years B. P. Correlation of the Gubik Formation at Heald Point with the Barrow unit of the Gubik Formation at Point Barrow on the basis of incorporated dolomite and orthoquartzite clasts is suggested.

Open-File Report↗

Population genetic studies of the polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ): A summary of available data and interpretation of results

A summary of existing population genetics literature is presented for polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) and interpreted in the context of the species' life-history characteristics and regional heterogeneity in environmental regimes and movement patterns. Several nongenetic data sets including morphology, contaminant levels, geographic variation in reproductive characteristics, and the location and distribution of open-water foraging habitat suggest some degree of spatial structuring. Eleven populations are recognized by the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group. Few genetics studies exist for polar bears. Interpretation and generalizations of regional variation in intra- and interpopulation levels of genetic variability are confounded by the paucity of data from many regions and by the fact that no single informative genetic marker has been employed in multiple regions. Early allozyme studies revealed comparatively low levels of genetic variability and no compelling evidence of spatial structuring. Studies employing mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) also found low levels of genetic variation, a lack of phylogenetic structure, and no significant evidence for spatial variation in haplotype frequency. In contrast, microsatellite variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) loci have revealed significant heterogeneity in allele frequency among populations in the Canadian Arctic. These regions are characterized by archipelgic patterns of sea-ice movements. Further studies using highly polymorphic loci are needed in regions characterized by greater polar bear dependency on pelagic sea-ice movements and in regions for which no data currently exist (i.e., Laptev and Novaya Zemlya/Franz Josef).

Book chapter↗

Genetic population structure of muskellunge in the Great Lakes

We quantified genetic relationships among Muskellunge Esox masquinongy from 15 locations in the Great Lakes to determine the extent and distribution of measurable population structure and to identify appropriate spatial scales for fishery management and genetic conservation. We hypothesized that Muskellunge from each area represented genetically distinct populations, which would be evident from analyses of genotype data. A total of 691 Muskellunge were sampled ( n = 10–127/site) and genetic data were collected at 13 microsatellite loci. Results from a suite of analyses (including pairwise genetic differentiation, Bayesian admixture prediction, analysis of molecular variance, and tests of isolation by distance) indicated the presence of nine distinct genetic groups, including two that were approximately 50 km apart. Geographic proximity and low habitat complexity seemed to facilitate genetic similarity among areas, whereas Muskellunge from areas of greater habitat heterogeneity exhibited high differentiation. Muskellunge from most areas contained private alleles, and mean within-area genetic variation was similar to that reported for other freshwater fishes. Management programs aimed at conserving the broader diversity and long-term sustainability of Muskellunge could benefit by considering the genetically distinct groups as independent fisheries, and individual spawning and nursery habitats could subsequently be protected to conserve the evolutionary potential of Muskellunge.

Great Lakes↗

The 1992 epizootic of Newcastle disease in double-crested cormorants in North America

In the summer of 1992, morbidity and mortality in juvenile double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus; DCC) attributable to Newcastle disease virus (NDV) was observed for the first time in seven northern USA states and one Canadian province, and recurred in three western Canadian provinces. Based on clinical signs and laboratory diagnostic findings, DCC mortality from NDV occurred in 59 of the 63 nesting colonies and two of three non-colony sites investigated. An estimate of in excess of 20,000 DCC died, with mortality rates ranging from < 1 to 37% in Great Lakes colonies to 20 to 92% in Minnesota (USA) and North and South Dakota (USA) colonies. Sick juvenile white pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos) exhibiting signs similar to sick cormorants, and dead pelicans were observed in Minnesota and North Dakota. Mortality rates in pelican colonies were as high as in the adjacent cormorant colonies, but no cause for the mortality of an estimated 5,000 pelicans was determined. No evidence of NDV was found in other species nesting in proximity to affected cormorants. Although the source of the NDV infection is unknown in cormorants, the simultaneous onset of the epizootics in juvenile birds over a wide geographic area implies that the virus was acquired by adults prior to migration and was carried back to nest sites, exposing susceptible nestlings. The possible transmission of this virus from free-ranging wild birds to domestic poultry is a concern. Based on repeated epizootics in cormorants since 1990, NDV seems to be established in DCC.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗

Recovery and decline of lake whitefish in U.S. waters of eastern Lake Ontario, 1980-2001

The lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) was an important member of the native fish community and a valued commercial species in Lake Ontario. Lake whitefish were common in U.S. waters of the lake until 1965 and very abundant in Canadian waters through the early 1970s, although their numbers declined shortly thereafter. During 1975-1985, lake whitefish stocks remained depressed throughout the lake as a result of the combined effects of degraded water quality, overfishing, and predation. Rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) probably preyed on whitefish fry, and sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) preyed on adults. During 1985-1987, lake whitefish stocks began to recover in eastern Lake Ontario, and their buildup continued into the mid-1990s. Reasons for the recovery likely included control of the sea lamprey population and a reduction in the number of piscivorous rainbow smelt. By 1997, lake whitefish abundance had declined severely again; some fish appeared to have dispersed from the northeastern to the southeastern regions of the lake, and the depth of capture increased. We believe that the collapse of Diporeia spp. populations during 1992-1999 was responsible for the decline in the lake whitefish populations and the shifts in geographic and bathymetric distribution because lake whitefish fed primarily on Diporeia spp. After the collapse of Diporeia spp. populations, lake whitefish in southeastern Lake Ontario fed on Mysis relicta and quagga mussels (Dreissena bugensis). Changing from a diet of high-lipid Diporeia spp to low-lipid dreissenids and foraging on Mysis relicta at lower temperatures are apparently hampering the rebuilding of lake whitefish stocks.

Technical Report↗

Remote sensing education and Internet/World Wide Web technology

Remote sensing education is increasingly in demand across academic and professional disciplines. Meanwhile, Internet technology and the World Wide Web (WWW) are being more frequently employed as teaching tools in remote sensing and other disciplines. The current wealth of information on the Internet and World Wide Web must be distilled, nonetheless, to be useful in remote sensing education. An extensive literature base is developing on the WWW as a tool in education and in teaching remote sensing. This literature reveals benefits and limitations of the WWW, and can guide its implementation. Among the most beneficial aspects of the Web are increased access to remote sensing expertise regardless of geographic location, increased access to current material, and access to extensive archives of satellite imagery and aerial photography. As with other teaching innovations, using the WWW/Internet may well mean more work, not less, for teachers, at least at the stage of early adoption. Also, information posted on Web sites is not always accurate. Development stages of this technology range from on-line posting of syllabi and lecture notes to on-line laboratory exercises and animated landscape flyovers and on-line image processing. The advantages of WWW/Internet technology may likely outweigh the costs of implementing it as a teaching tool.

Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing↗

Pesticides in the atmosphere; distribution, trends, and governing factors

A comprehensive review of existing literature on the occurrence and distribution of pesticides in the atmosphere of the United States and adjoining Canadian provinces showed that the atmosphere is an important part of the hydrologic cycle that acts to distribute and deposit pesticides in areas far removed from their application sites. A compilation of existing data shows that pesticides have been detected in the atmosphere throughout the nation. Most of the available information on pesticides in the atmosphere is from small-scale, short-term studies that seldom lasted more than one year. Only two national-scale, multi-year studies were done since the late 1960's that analyzed for a wide variety of pesticides in air that were in current use at the time. Another large-scale study was done during 1990-91, but was limited to the midwestern and northeastern United States and only analyzed for two classes of herbicides in wet deposition. Most of the pesticides analyzed for were detected in either air or rain, and represent about 25 percent of the total number of insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides in current use. The geographical distribution of studies, and the type of sampling and analysis were highly variable with most of the historical study efforts concentrated in the Great Lakes area and California. Air and rain were the main atmospheric matrices sampled, but pesticides were also detected in fog and snow. Reported pesticide concentrations in air and rain were frequently positively correlated to their regional agricultural use. Deviations from this relation could usually be explained by non-agricultural use of pesticides, sampling and analytical difficulties, and environmental persistence. High concentrations of locally used pesticides were found to occur seasonally, usually in conjunction with spring planting of row crops and warm temperatures, but high concentrations also occurred during winter months in those areas where dormant orchards were sprayed. The environmentally more persistent pesticides were detected in the atmosphere at low concen- trations throughout the year. Deposition of airborne pesticides can have significant effects on water quality, but neither the nature of nor the magnitude of these effects can be determined with certainty on the basis of the type of data currently available. The lack of consistent, long-term regional and national monitoring and study of pesticides in atmospheric matrices severely limits assessment capability.

Open-File Report↗

Trends in North American small mammals found in common barn-owl (Tyto alba) dietary studies

Data on mammals were compiled from published studies of common barn-owl (Tyto alba) pellets. Mammalian composition of pellet samples was analyzed within geographic regions in regard to year, mean annual precipitation, latitude, and number of individual mammals in the sample. Percentages of individuals in pellets that were shrews increased whereas the percentages of rodents decreased with greater mean annual precipitation, especially in northern and western areas of North America. From the 1920s through 1980s, in northern and eastern areas the percentage of species that was shrews decreased, and in northern and central areas the percentage of individuals that was murid rats and mice increased. Human alterations of habitats during these seven decades are postulated to have caused changes in available small mammals, leading to changes in the barn-owl diet.

Canadian Journal of Zoology↗

Predicting invasiveness of species in trade: Climate match, trophic guild and fecundity influence establishment and impact of non-native freshwater fishes

Aim Impacts of non-native species have motivated development of risk assessment tools for identifying introduced species likely to become invasive. Here, we develop trait-based models for the establishment and impact stages of freshwater fish invasion, and use them to screen non-native species common in international trade. We also determine which species in the aquarium, biological supply, live bait, live food and water garden trades are likely to become invasive. Results are compared to historical patterns of non-native fish establishment to assess the relative importance over time of pathways in causing invasions. Location Laurentian Great Lakes region. Methods Trait-based classification trees for the establishment and impact stages of invasion were developed from data on freshwater fish species that established or failed to establish in the Great Lakes. Fishes in trade were determined from import data from Canadian and United States regulatory agencies, assigned to specific trades and screened through the developed models. Results Climate match between a species’ native range and the Great Lakes region predicted establishment success with 75–81% accuracy. Trophic guild and fecundity predicted potential harmful impacts of established non-native fishes with 75–83% accuracy. Screening outcomes suggest the water garden trade poses the greatest risk of introducing new invasive species, followed by the live food and aquarium trades. Analysis of historical patterns of introduction pathways demonstrates the increasing importance of these trades relative to other pathways. Comparisons among trades reveal that model predictions parallel historical patterns; all fishes previously introduced from the water garden trade have established. The live bait, biological supply, aquarium and live food trades have also contributed established non-native fishes. Main conclusions Our models predict invasion risk of potential fish invaders to the Great Lakes region and could help managers prioritize efforts among species and pathways to minimize such risk. Similar approaches could be applied to other taxonomic groups and geographic regions.

Diversity and Distributions↗

Comparing movement patterns of satellite-tagged male and female polar bears

Satellite radiotelemetry has provided great insights into the movements and behaviors of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). The diameter of the neck of adult male polar bears exceeds that of their head, however, and radio collars slip off. This has limited collection of movement information to that from radio-collared females. To overcome this difficulty and gather information about their movements, we surgically implanted satellite radio transmitters into 7 male polar bears during 1996 and 1997. We compared movements of implanted males with those of 104 adult females radio-collared between 1985 and 1995. Transmitters were implanted under the skin on the midline of the top of the neck and were equipped with percutaneous antennae. Implanted transmitters operated for up to 161 days providing 3217 satellite relocations. While transmitting, radios implanted in males provided a larger proportion of the highest quality category of position fixes than was obtained from radio-collared females. However, all implanted radios ceased transmitting before reaching their projected life-span. The abrupt termination of transmission from implanted radios suggested mechanical rather than electronic failure. Mean rates of short-term movement for males (1.18 km/h) were lower than for solitary females, females with cubs, and females with yearlings (1.70, 1.84, and 1.95 km/h, respectively). Net geographic movements from the beginning to the end of each month were comparable for males (mean = 135 km) and females (mean = 114, 152, and 168 km). Mean azimuths of these net movements also appeared to be similar. Monthly activity-area sizes for males (mean = 8541 km 2 ) were comparable to those for females (mean = 3698, 9397, and 10 585 km 2 ) during the time period of comparison. In contrast to the other movement measures, males traveled longer mean distances (387 km) each month than did females (217, 289, and 302 km). Movements of males, it appears, were more directed than those of females, but males confined their travels to similar-sized areas.

Alaska, Northwest Territories↗

Space-time modelling of lightning-caused ignitions in the Blue Mountains, Oregon

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were used to study the effect of vegetation cover, elevation, slope, and precipitation on the probability of ignition in the Blue Mountains, Oregon, and to estimate the probability of ignition occurrence at different locations in space and in time. Data on starting location of lightning-caused ignitions in the Blue Mountains between April 1986 and September 1993 constituted the base for the analysis. The study area was divided into a pixela??time array. For each pixela??time location we associated a value of 1 if at least one ignition occurred and 0 otherwise. Covariate information for each pixel was obtained using a geographic information system. The GLMMs were fitted in a Bayesian framework. Higher ignition probabilities were associated with the following cover types: subalpine herbaceous, alpine tundra, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.), whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.), Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.), subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.), and grand fir (Abies grandis (Dougl.) Lindl.). Within each vegetation type, higher ignition probabilities occurred at lower elevations. Additionally, ignition probabilities are lower in the northern and southern extremes of the Blue Mountains. The GLMM procedure used here is suitable for analysing ignition occurrence in other forested regions where probabilities of ignition are highly variable because of a spatially complex biophysical environment.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗