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USGS2009

Effects of an unseasonable snowstorm on red-faced Warbler nesting success

Earlier initiation of nests by breeding birds may reflect an adaptive response to changes in food availability or warming of spring temperatures, but the consequences of initiating nests too early may be severe, particularly at high elevations. A rare snowstorm in late May 2008 resulted in nest abandonment by 68% of Red-faced Warblers (Cardellina rubrifrons) breeding in a high-elevation riparian ecosystem of southeastern Arizona. In addition, climate data from our study site from 1950 to 2008 revealed higher-than-average springtime temperatures during the past 10 years. If birds respond to this increase in springtime temperatures by nesting earlier their vulnerability to spring snowstorms may increase. ?? 2009 by The Cooper Ornithological Society. All rights reserved.

Condor↗

USGS2007

Variation in maternal effects and embryonic development rates among passerine species

Embryonic development rates are reflected by the length of incubation period in birds, and these vary substantially among species within and among geographical regions. The incubation periods are consistently shorter in North America (Arizona study site) than in tropical (Venezuela) and subtropical (Argentina) South America based on the study of 83 passerine species in 17 clades. Parents, mothers in particular, may influence incubation periods and resulting offspring quality through proximate pathways, while variation in maternal strategies among species can result from selection by adult and offspring mortality. Parents of long-lived species, as is common in the tropics and subtropics, may be under selection to minimize costs to themselves during incubation. Indeed, time spent incubating is often lower in the tropical and subtropical species than the related north temperate species, causing cooler average egg temperatures in the southern regions. Decreased egg temperatures result in longer incubation periods and reflect a cost imposed on offspring by parents because energy cost to the embryo and risk of offspring predation are both increased. Mothers may adjust egg size and constituents as a means to partially offset such costs. For example, reduced androgen concentrations in egg yolks may slow development rates, but may enhance offspring quality through physiological trade-offs that may be particularly beneficial in longer-lived species, as in the tropics and subtropics. We provide initial data to show that yolks of tropical birds contain substantially lower concentrations of growth-promoting androgens than north temperate relatives. Thus, maternal (and parental) effects on embryonic development rates may include contrasting and complementary proximate influences on offspring quality and deserve further field study among species. ?? 2007 The Royal Society.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2025

Nocardia cyriacigeorgica in a Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) from Arizona, USA

Nocardia spp. are opportunistic pathogens of humans, domestic animals, and wildlife that can cause high levels of morbidity and mortality. Here, we present a unique case of nocardial airsacculitis in a free-ranging mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) from Arizona, USA, and compare it to the hosts, geographic distribution, diagnostic methodology, and infection site of known nocardiosis cases in birds. A gross necropsy, histopathology, and bacterial culture were performed. There were no gross findings associated with the nocardiosis. Histopathology showed multiple granulomas expanding the air sac with intralesional filamentous bacteria that were Grocott’s methenamine silver-positive, Fite–Faraco and Ziehl–Neelsen acid-fast, positive with the Periodic acid–Schiff reaction, and variably Gram-positive. The organism was isolated in culture and identified as Nocardia cyriacigeorgica based on the sequencing of a 463 bp portion of the 16S rRNA gene. While reports of nocardiosis in the class Aves are rare and some are possibly misdiagnosed due to limited diagnostics, cases are reported globally, sometimes resulting in epizootics. More information is needed to understand whether immunosuppression plays a role in disease development in birds. Known to be an emerging pathogen in humans, N. cyriacigeorgica can be considered as a differential diagnosis for pulmonary and potentially cutaneous or disseminated infections in birds.

Arizona↗

USGS2020

Behavioral response to high temperatures in a desert grassland bird: Use of shrubs as thermal refugia

Birds inhabiting hot, arid ecosystems contend with trade-offs between heat dissipation and water conservation. As temperatures increase, passerines engage in various behaviors to reduce exposure to heat, solar radiation and insolation, and reradiation of heat from the ground. These responses to rising temperatures may result in subordination of reproductive urgency or nutrient acquisition to the need for thermoregulation. During studies on Arizona Grasshopper Sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ammolegus ) life history and ecology, we noted that these sparrows abandoned territoriality and foraging behaviors under certain circumstances in favor of cooler microsites. In this paper we document the extreme temperatures to which these and other ground-foraging and ground-nesting birds are exposed in southwestern desert grasslands, and we present evidence that A. s. ammolegus avoids exposure to extreme air and ground temperatures by using shrubs as thermal refugia. Our observations have implications for Arizona Grasshopper Sparrows and other desert grassland passerines in the southwestern United States, where the climate is projected to become hotter and drier. We provide some of the only behavioral data, and associated temperature data, associated with the use of thermal refugia by desert grassland birds. We encourage further studies that use more robust methods to supplement our observational data.

Arizona↗

USGS2024

High inter-population connectivity and occasional gene flow between subspecies improves recovery potential for the endangered Least Bell’s Vireo

Increasingly, genomic data are being used to supplement field-based ecological studies to help evaluate recovery status and trends in endangered species. We collected genomic data to address two related questions regarding the Least Bell’s Vireo ( Vireo bellii ), an endangered migratory songbird restricted to southern California riparian habitat for breeding. First, we sought to delineate the range limits and potential overlap between Least Bell’s Vireo and its sister subspecies, the Arizona Bell’s Vireo, by analyzing samples from the deserts of eastern California, southwestern Nevada, Utah and Arizona. Second, we evaluated genetic structure among Least Bell’s Vireo populations in coastal California and estimated effective population size. Clustering analyses based on 10,571 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 317 samples supported two major groups that aligned closely to the previously defined subspecies ranges. The first cluster included birds in the Central Valley, all coastal drainages, and westernmost deserts of California, with no further sub-structuring among coastal drainages. Almost all birds from the Amargosa River in eastern California and eastward assigned to the second cluster; however, low levels of gene flow were detected across the subspecies groups, with greater rates of gene flow from Arizona Bell’s Vireo to Least Bell’s Vireo than the reverse. Admixed individuals occurred in the California deserts; and although smaller than coastal populations, desert populations may be important for maintaining and replenishing genetic diversity and facilitating the movement of potentially adaptive genes between subspecies. Within Least Bell’s Vireo, local populations in coastal drainages comprised a single genetic population, with some evidence of close relatives distributed across drainages, suggesting these could function as a well-connected metapopulation. These results are consistent with previous Least Bell’s Vireo banding studies that reported high rates of dispersal among drainages. Effective population size for both subspecies was high, suggesting that adaptive potential has been maintained despite previous declines.

Ornithological Applications↗

USGS2007

Southwestern Willow Flycatcher Breeding Site and Territory Summary - 2006

Introduction The Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is an endangered bird that breeds only in dense riparian habitats in six southwestern states (southern California, extreme southern Nevada, southern Utah, southwestern Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico). Since 1993, hundreds of Southwestern Willow Flycatcher surveys have been conducted each year, and many new flycatcher breeding sites located. This document synthesizes information on all known Southwestern Willow Flycatcher breeding sites. This rangewide data synthesis was designed to meet these objectives: * identify all known Southwestern Willow Flycatcher breeding sites, and * assemble data on population size, location, habitat, and other information for all breeding sites, for as many years as possible, from 1993 through 2006. This report provides data summaries in terms of the number of flycatcher sites and the number of territories.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

Avian community responses to vegetation structure within chained and hand-cut pinyon-juniper woodlands on the Colorado Plateau

We investigated relationships between breeding birds and vegetation characteristics in fuels-reduction treatment areas within pinyon-juniper woodlands at locations over the Colorado Plateau. The goal of this study was to document differences in avian community responses to two types of pinyon-juniper fuels-reduction treatments (chained vs. hand-cut), relative to control sites. We selected 73 vegetation plots in southern Utah and northern Arizona, of which 33 had been previously thinned by handcutting or chaining, and 40 control plots in untreated pinyon-juniper woodlands. At the 73 locations we documented vegetation structure and counted birds within 3.1 ha circular plots during the 2005 and 2006 breeding seasons. We focused in particular on the effects of fuels-reduction treatments to 16 bird species that are considered pinyon-juniper obligates. We found that density of pinyon pines was the most important variable in predicting bird species richness in all treatments and at control sites. Abundance of Brewer’s Sparrow (<i>Spizella breweri</i>) was negatively related to chained, but positively related to hand cut areas. Vesper Sparrow (<i>Poocetes graminius</i>) abundance was negatively related to both chaining and handcutting. Within 16 pinyon-juniper obligate bird species, abundance of five was positively related to pinyon-pine density, while two were positively related to juniper density. These responses, along with other bird-vegetation relationships influenced by treatment type, need to be considered by land managers when planning fuels reduction treatments in pinyon-juniper woodland habitat in the Colorado Plateau.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2008

Egg size variation among tropical and temperate songbirds: An embryonic temperature hypothesis

Species with 'slow' life history strategies (long life, low fecundity) are thought to produce high-quality offspring by investing in larger, but fewer, young. Larger eggs are indeed associated with fewer eggs across taxa and can yield higher-quality offspring. Tropical passerines appear to follow theory because they commonly exhibit slow life history strategies and produce larger, but fewer, eggs compared with northern species. Yet, I show here that relative egg mass (corrected for adult mass) varies extensively in the tropics and subtropics for the same clutch size, and this variation is unexplained. I propose a hypothesis to explain egg size variation both within the tropics and between latitudes: Relative egg mass increases in species with cooler egg temperatures and longer embryonic periods to offset associated increases in energetic requirements of embryos. Egg temperatures of birds are determined by parental incubation behavior and are often cooler among tropical passerines because of reduced parental attentiveness of eggs. Here, I show that cooler egg temperatures and longer embryonic periods explained the enigmatic variation in egg mass within and among regions, based on field studies in tropical Venezuela (36 species), subtropical Argentina (16 species), and north temperate Arizona (20 species). Alternative explanations are not supported. Thus, large egg sizes may reflect compensation for increased energetic requirements of cool egg temperatures and long embryonic periods that result from reduced parental attentiveness in tropical birds. ?? 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2010

Status of the California condor (Gymnogyps californianus) and efforts to achieve its recovery

The California Condor ( Gymnogyps californianus ; hereafter "condor"; Fig. 1) has long been symbolic of avian conservation in the United States. Its large size, inquisitiveness, and association with remote places make it highly charismatic, and its decline to the brink of extinction aroused a continuing public interest in its plight. By 1982, only 22 individuals remained of this species whose range once encompassed much of North America. The last wild bird was trapped and brought into captivity in 1987, which rendered the species extinct in the wild (Snyder and Snyder 1989). In the 1980s, some questioned whether viable populations could ever again exist in the natural environment, and whether limited conservation funds should be expended on what they viewed as a hopeless cause (Pitelka 1981). Nevertheless, since that low point, a captive-breeding and release program has increased the total population by an order of magnitude, and condors fly free again in California, Arizona, Utah, and Baja California, Mexico (Fig. 2). At this writing (summer 2009), more than 350 condors exist, 180 of which are in the wild (J. Grantham pers. comm.). The free-living birds face severe challenges, however, and receive constant human assistance. The intensive management applied to the free-living populations, as well as the ongoing monitoring and captive-breeding programs, are tremendously expensive and become more so as the population grows. Thus, the program has reached a crossroads, caught between the financial and logistical pressures required to maintain an increasing number of condors in the wild and the environmental problems that preclude establishment of naturally sustainable, free-ranging populations.

The Auk↗

USGS2011

Seasonal fecundity and source-sink status of shrub-nesting birds in a southwestern riparian corridor

Saltcedar ( Tamarix spp.) has increasingly dominated riparian floodplains relative to native forests in the southwestern U.S., but little is known about its impacts on avian productivity or population status. We monitored 86 Arizona Bell's Vireo ( Vireo bellii arizonae ), 147 Abert's Towhee ( Melozone aberti ), and 154 Yellow-breasted Chat ( Icteria virens ) nests to assess reproductive parameters in cottonwood-willow ( Populus-Salix ), saltcedar, and mesquite ( Prosopis spp.) stands along the San Pedro River, Arizona during 1999–2001. We also assessed source-sink status for each species in each vegetation type using field data combined with data from the literature. There were no significant differences in reproductive parameters between vegetation types for Abert's Towhee or Yellow-breasted Chat, although seasonal fecundity was quite low across vegetation types for the latter (0.75 ± 0.14; mean ± SE). Bell's Vireo had extremely low seasonal fecundity in saltcedar (0.10 ± 0.09) and significantly fewer fledglings per nest in saltcedar (0.09 ± 0.09) compared with cottonwood (1.07 ± 0.32). Point estimates of λ were substantially <1 for all three focal species in all habitats indicating the entire study area may be performing as a sink; 90% CI of included 1 only for Abert's Towhee across vegetation types and Bell's Vireo in cottonwood vegetation. These results are surprising given the San Pedro is considered to be one of the best remaining occurrences of lowland native riparian vegetation in the southwestern United States.

Arizona↗

USGS2012

Frequent vocalizing is negatively associated with brood parasitism in a host of the brown-headed cowbird

Brood parasitism by the Brown-headed Cowbird ( Molothrus ater ) can substantially affect host species' reproductive success. The "host-activity" hypothesis suggests that parasites eavesdrop on conspicuous behaviors to locate and parasitize hosts, and several studies of cowbird hosts support this hypothesis. In contrast, a recent study of the Least Bell's Vireo ( Vireo bellii pusillus ) reported a negative association between the host's vocalization rate near the nest and brood parasitism. This contradictory pattern is intriguing because Bell's Vireo is a common cowbird host and vocalizes near and on its nests. We tested a key assumption of the host-activity hypothesis in a different subspecies ( V. b. arizonae ) to determine whether the contradictory pattern reported in V. b. pusillus is an anomaly or could be generalized to other subspecies. Unparasitized vireos vocalized more frequently than parasitized birds, confirming that the pattern in Bell's Vireos is the opposite of that reported for other cowbird hosts. Nesting stage played a role: unparasitized birds vocalized more than parasitized birds only during the nest-building and incubation stages. Given that vocalization rate and other behaviors change through the breeding season, future tests of the host-activity hypothesis should control for nesting stage. Moreover, future efforts to identify the underlying cause for the association between vocalization rate and probability of parasitism should consider the possibility of reciprocal causal relationships between them. We propose five additional hypotheses to explain why in Bell's Vireo the pattern between these two traits is opposite of what has been reported in other birds.

The Condor↗

USGS2014

Home range characteristics of Mexican Spotted Owls in the Rincon Mountains, Arizona

We studied a small isolated population of Mexican Spotted Owls ( Strix occidentalis lucida ) from 1996–1997 in the Rincon Mountains of Saguaro National Park, southeastern Arizona, USA. All mixed-conifer and pine-oak forest patches in the park were surveyed for Spotted Owls, and we located, captured, and radio-tagged 10 adult birds representing five mated pairs. Using radio-telemetry, we examined owl home range characteristics, roost habitat, and monitored reproduction within these five territories. Breeding season (Mar–Sep) home range size for 10 adult owls (95% adaptive kernel isopleths) averaged 267 ha (±207 SD), and varied widely among owls (range 34–652 ha). Mean home range size for owl pairs was 478 ha (±417 ha SD), and ranged from 70–1,160 ha. Owls that produced young used smaller home ranges than owls that had no young. Six habitat variables differed significantly between roost and random sites, including: percent canopy cover, number of trees, number of vegetation layers, average height of trees, average diameter of trees, and tree basal area. Radio-marked owls remained in their territories following small prescribed management fires within those territories, exhibiting no proximate effects to the presence of prescribed fire.

Arizona↗

USGS2012

Evaluation of NDVI to assess avian abundance and richness along the upper San Pedro River

Remote-sensing models have become increasingly popular for identifying, characterizing, monitoring, and predicting avian habitat but have largely focused on single bird species. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been shown to positively correlate with avian abundance and richness and has been successfully applied to southwestern riparian systems which are uniquely composed of narrow bands of vegetation in an otherwise dry landscape. Desert riparian ecosystems are important breeding and stopover sites for many bird species but have been degraded due to altered hydrology and land management practices. Here we investigated the use of NDVI, coupled with vegetation, to model the avian community structure along the San Pedro River, Arizona. We also investigated how vegetation and physical features measured locally compared to those data that can be gathered through remote-sensing. We found that NDVI has statistically significant relationships with both avian abundance and species richness, although is better applied at the individual species level. However, the amount of variation explained by even our best models was quite low, suggesting that NDVI habitat models may not presently be an accurate tool for extensive modeling of avian communities. We suggest additional studies in other watersheds to increase our understanding of these bird/NDVI relationships.

Arizona↗

USGS2015

Detecting mismatches of bird migration stopover and tree phenology in response to changing climate

Migratory birds exploit seasonal variation in resources across latitudes, timing migration to coincide with the phenology of food at stopover sites. Differential responses to climate in phenology across trophic levels can result in phenological mismatch; however, detecting mismatch is sensitive to methodology. We examined patterns of migrant abundance and tree flowering, phenological mismatch, and the influence of climate during spring migration from 2009 to 2011 across five habitat types of the Madrean Sky Islands in southeastern Arizona, USA. We used two metrics to assess phenological mismatch: synchrony and overlap. We also examined whether phenological overlap declined with increasing difference in mean event date of phenophases. Migrant abundance and tree flowering generally increased with minimum spring temperature but depended on annual climate by habitat interactions. Migrant abundance was lowest and flowering was highest under cold, snowy conditions in high elevation montane conifer habitat while bird abundance was greatest and flowering was lowest in low elevation riparian habitat under the driest conditions. Phenological synchrony and overlap were unique and complementary metrics and should both be used when assessing mismatch. Overlap declined due to asynchronous phenologies but also due to reduced migrant abundance or flowering when synchrony was actually maintained. Overlap declined with increasing difference in event date and this trend was strongest in riparian areas. Montane habitat specialists may be at greatest risk of mismatch while riparian habitat could provide refugia during dry years for phenotypically plastic species. Interannual climate patterns that we observed match climate change projections for the arid southwest, altering stopover habitat condition.

Arizona↗

USGS2010

Biological pathways of exposure and ecotoxicity values for uranium and associated radionuclides: Chapter D in Hydrological, geological, and biological site characterization of breccia pipe uranium deposits in Northern Arizona

This chapter compiles available chemical and radiation toxicity information for plants and animals from the scientific literature on naturally occurring uranium and associated radionuclides. Specifically, chemical and radiation hazards associated with radionuclides in the uranium decay series including uranium, thallium, thorium, bismuth, radium, radon, protactinium, polonium, actinium, and francium were the focus of the literature compilation. In addition, exposure pathways and a food web specific to the segregation areas were developed. Major biological exposure pathways considered were ingestion, inhalation, absorption, and bioaccumulation, and biota categories included microbes, invertebrates, plants, fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. These data were developed for incorporation into a risk assessment to be conducted as part of an environmental impact statement for the Bureau of Land Management, which would identify representative plants and animals and their relative sensitivities to exposure of uranium and associated radionuclides. This chapter provides pertinent information to aid in the development of such an ecological risk assessment but does not estimate or derive guidance thresholds for radionuclides associated with uranium. Previous studies have not attempted to quantify the risks to biota caused directly by the chemical or radiation releases at uranium mining sites, although some information is available for uranium mill tailings and uranium mine closure activities. Research into the biological impacts of uranium exposure is strongly biased towards human health and exposure related to enriched or depleted uranium associated with the nuclear energy industry rather than naturally occurring uranium associated with uranium mining. Nevertheless, studies have reported that uranium and other radionuclides can affect the survival, growth, and reproduction of plants and animals. Exposure to chemical and radiation hazards is influenced by a plant’s or an animal’s life history and surrounding environment. Various species of plants, invertebrates, fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals found in the segregation areas that are considered species of concern by State and Federal agencies were included in the development of the site-specific food web. The utilization of subterranean habitats (burrows in uranium-rich areas, burrows in waste rock piles or reclaimed mining areas, mine tunnels) in the seasonally variable but consistently hot, arid environment is of particular concern in the segregation areas. Certain species of reptiles, amphibians, birds, and mammals in the segregation areas spend significant amounts of time in burrows where they can inhale or ingest uranium and other radionuclides through digging, eating, preening, and hibernating. Herbivores may also be exposed though the ingestion of radionuclides that have been aerially deposited on vegetation. Measured tissues concentrations of uranium and other radionuclides are not available for any species of concern in the segregation areas. The sensitivity of these animals to uranium exposure is unknown based on the existing scientific literature, and species-specific uranium presumptive effects levels were only available for two endangered fish species known to inhabit the segregation areas. Overall, the chemical toxicity data available for biological receptors of concern were limited, although chemical and radiation toxicity guidance values are available from several sources. However, caution should be used when directly applying these values to northern Arizona given the unique habitat and life history strategies of biological receptors in the segregation areas and the fact that some guidance values are based on models rather than empirical (laboratory or field) data. No chemical toxicity information based on empirical data is available for reptiles, birds, or wild mammals; therefore, the risks associated with uranium and other radionuclides are unknown for these biota.

Arizona↗

USGS2010

On the irrigation requirements of cottonwood (Populus fremontii and Populus deltoides var. wislizenii) and willow (Salix gooddingii) grown in a desert environment

Native tree plots have been established in river irrigation districts in the western U.S. to provide habitat for threatened and endangered birds. Information is needed on the effective irrigation requirements of the target species. Cottonwood (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix gooddingii) trees were grown for seven years in an outdoor plot in a desert environment in Tucson, Arizona. Plants were allowed to achieve a nearly complete canopy cover over the first four years, then were subjected to three daily summer irrigation schedules of 6.20??mm??d -1 ; 8.26??mm??d -1 and 15.7??mm??d -1 . The lowest irrigation rate was sufficient to maintain growth and high leaf area index for cottonwoods over three years, while willows suffered considerable die-back on this rate in years six and seven. These irrigation rates were applied April 15-September 15, but only 0.88??mm??d -1 was applied during the dormant period of the year. Expressed as a fraction of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET o ), recommended annual water applications plus precipitation (and including some deep drainage) were 0.83 ET o for cottonwood and 1.01 ET o for willow. Current practices tend to over-irrigate restoration plots, and this study can provide guidelines for more efficient water use. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

USGS2005

Quantifying Northern Goshawk diets using remote cameras and observations from blinds

Raptor diet is most commonly measured indirectly, by analyzing castings and prey remains, or directly, by observing prey deliveries from blinds. Indirect methods are not only time consuming, but there is evidence to suggest these methods may overestimate certain prey taxa within raptor diet. Remote video surveillance systems have been developed to aid in monitoring and data collection, but their use in field situations can be challenging and is often untested. To investigate diet and prey delivery rates of Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis), we operated 10 remote camera systems at occupied nests during the breeding seasons of 1999 and 2000 in east-central Arizona. We collected 2458 hr of useable video and successfully identified 627 (93%) prey items at least to Class (Aves, Mammalia, or Reptilia). Of prey items identified to genus, we identified 344 (81%) mammals, 62 (15%) birds, and 16 (4%) reptiles. During camera operation, we also conducted observations from blinds at a subset of five nests to compare the relative efficiency and precision of both methods. Limited observations from blinds yielded fewer prey deliveries, and therefore, lower delivery rates (0.16 items/hr) than simultaneous video footage (0.28 items/hr). Observations from blinds resulted in fewer prey identified to the genus and species levels, when compared to data collected by remote cameras. Cameras provided a detailed and close view of nests, allowed for simultaneous recording at multiple nests, decreased observer bias and fatigue, and provided a permanent archive of data. ?? 2005 The Raptor Research Foundation, Inc.

Journal of Raptor Research↗

USGS2014

Projecting climate effects on birds and reptiles of the Southwestern United States

We modeled the current and future breeding ranges of seven bird and five reptile species in the Southwestern United States with sets of landscape, biotic (plant), and climatic global circulation model (GCM) variables. For modeling purposes, we used PRISM data to characterize the climate of the Western United States between 1980 and 2009 (baseline for birds) and between 1940 and 2009 (baseline for reptiles). In contrast, we used a pre-selected set of GCMs that are known to be good predictors of southwestern climate (five individual and one ensemble GCM), for the A1B emission scenario, to characterize future climatic conditions in three time periods (2010–39; 2040–69; and, 2070–99). Our modeling approach relied on conceptual models for each target species to inform selection of candidate explanatory variables and to interpret the ecological meaning of developed probabilistic distribution models. We employed logistic regression and maximum entropy modeling techniques to create a set of probabilistic models for each target species. We considered climatic, landscape, and plant variables when developing and testing our probabilistic models. Climatic variables included the maximum and minimum mean monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation for three time periods. Landscape features included terrain ruggedness and insolation. We also considered plant species distributions as candidate explanatory variables where prior ecological knowledge implicated a strong association between a plant and animal species. Projected changes in range varied widely among species, from major losses to major gains. Breeding bird ranges exhibited greater expansions and contractions than did reptile species. We project range losses for Williamson’s sapsucker and pygmy nuthatch of a magnitude that could move these two species close to extinction within the next century. Although both species currently have a relatively limited distribution, they can be locally common, and neither are presently considered candidates for prospective endangerment. We project range losses of over 40 percent, from its current extent of occurrence, for the plateau striped whiptail, Arizona black rattlesnake, and common lesser earless lizard. Currently, these reptile species are thought to be common or at least locally abundant throughout their ranges. The total contribution of plants in each distribution model was very small, but models that contained at least one plant always outperformed models with only physical variables (climatic or landscape). The magnitude of change in projected range increased further into the future, especially when a plant was in the model. Among bird species, those that had the strongest association with a landscape feature during the breeding season, such as terrain ruggedness and insolation, exhibited the smallest contractions in projected breeding range in the future. In contrast, bird species that had weak associations with landscape features, but strong climatic associations, suffered the greatest breeding range contractions. Thus, landscape effects appeared to buffer some of the negative effects of climate change for some species. Among bird species, magnitude of change in projected breeding range was positively related to the annual average temperature of their baseline distribution, thus species with the warmest breeding ranges exhibited the greatest changes in future breeding ranges. This pattern was not evident for reptiles, but might exist if additional species were included in the model. Our results provide managers with a series of projected range maps that will enable scientists, concerned citizens, and wildlife managers to identify what the potential effects of climate change will be on bird and reptile distributions in the Western United States. We hope that our results can be used in proactive ways to mitigate some of the potential effects of climate change on selected species.

Colorado Plateau;Sonoran Desert↗