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At least 883 records · Page 49Linked to original sources
USGS2016

A shift in bloater consumption in Lake Michigan between 1993 and 2011 and its effects on Diporeia and Mysis prey

Bioenergetics modeling was used to determine individual and population consumption by Bloater Coregonus hoyi in Lake Michigan during three time periods with variable Bloater density: 1993–1996 (high), 1998–2002 (intermediate), and 2009–2011 (low). Despite declines in Bloater abundance between 1993 and 2011, our results did not show any density-dependent compensatory response in annual individual consumption, specific consumption, or proportion of maximum consumption consumed. Diporeia spp. accounted for a steadily decreasing fraction of annual consumption, and Bloater were apparently unable to eat enough Mysis diluviana or other prey to account for the loss of Diporeia in the environment. The fraction of production of both Diporeia and Mysis that was consumed by the Bloater population decreased over time so that the consumption-to-production ratio for Diporeia + Mysis was 0.74, 0.26, and 0.14 in 1993–1996, 1998–2002, and 2009–2011, respectively. Although high Bloater numbers in the 1980s to 1990s may have had an influence on populations of Diporeia, Bloater were not the main factor driving Diporeia to a nearly complete disappearance because Diporeia continued to decline when Bloater predation demands were lessening. Thus, there appears to be a decoupling in the inverse relationship between predator and prey abundance in Lake Michigan. Compared with Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus, the other dominant planktivore in the lake, Bloater have a lower specific consumption and higher gross conversion efficiency (GCE), indicating that the lake can support a higher biomass of Bloater than Alewife. However, declines in Bloater GCE since the 1970s and the absence of positive responses in consumption variables following declines in abundance suggest that productivity in Lake Michigan might not be able to support the same biomass of Bloater as in the past.

Lake Michigan↗
USGS2010

Land cover characterization and mapping of continental southeast Asia using multi-resolution satellite sensor data

Land use/land cover change, particularly that of tropical deforestation and forest degradation, has been occurring at an unprecedented rate and scale in Southeast Asia. The rapid rate of economic development, demographics and poverty are believed to be the underlying forces responsible for the change. Accurate and up-to-date information to support the above statement is, however, not available. The available data, if any, are outdated and are not comparable for various technical reasons. Time series analysis of land cover change and the identification of the driving forces responsible for these changes are needed for the sustainable management of natural resources and also for projecting future land cover trajectories. We analysed the multi-temporal and multi-seasonal NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data of 1985/86 and 1992 to (1) prepare historical land cover maps and (2) to identify areas undergoing major land cover transformations (called ‘hot spots’). The identified ‘hot spot’ areas were investigated in detail using high-resolution satellite sensor data such as Landsat and SPOT supplemented by intensive field surveys. Shifting cultivation, intensification of agricultural activities and change of cropping patterns, and conversion of forest to agricultural land were found to be the principal reasons for land use/land cover change in the Oudomxay province of Lao PDR, the Mekong Delta of Vietnam and the Loei province of Thailand, respectively. Moreover, typical land use/land cover change patterns of the ‘hot spot’ areas were also examined. In addition, we developed an operational methodology for land use/land cover change analysis at the national level with the help of national remote sensing institutions.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗
USGS2010

Continuous fields of land cover for the conterminous United States using Landsat data: First results from the Web-Enabled Landsat Data (WELD) project

Vegetation Continuous Field (VCF) layers of 30 m percent tree cover, bare ground, other vegetation and probability of water were derived for the conterminous United States (CONUS) using Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data sets from the Web-Enabled Landsat Data (WELD) project. Turnkey approaches to land cover characterization were enabled due to the systematic WELD Landsat processing, including conversion of digital numbers to calibrated top of atmosphere reflectance and brightness temperature, cloud masking, reprojection into a continental map projection and temporal compositing. Annual, seasonal and monthly WELD composites for 2008 were used as spectral inputs to a bagged regression and classification tree procedure using a large training data set derived from very high spatial resolution imagery and available ancillary data. The results illustrate the ability to perform Landsat land cover characterizations at continental scales that are internally consistent while retaining local spatial and thematic detail.

Remote Sensing Letters↗
USGS2013

Monitoring the status of forests and rangelands in the Western United States using ecosystem performance anomalies

The effects of land management and disturbance on ecosystem performance (i.e. biomass production) are often confounded by those of weather and site potential. The current study overcomes this issue by calculating the difference between actual and expected ecosystem performance (EEP) to generate ecosystem performance anomalies (EPA). This study aims to delineate and quantify average EPA from 2000–2009 within the Greater Platte and Upper Colorado River Basins, USA. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images averaged over the growing season (GSN) served as a proxy of actual ecosystem performance. Yearly EEP was determined with rule-based piecewise regression tree models of abiotic data (climate, soils, elevation, etc.), independently created for each land cover. EPA were calculated as the residuals of the EEP to GSN relationship, and characterized as normal performing, underperforming, and overperforming at the 90% confidence level. Validation revealed that EPA values were related to biomass production (R 2 = 0.56, P = 0.02) and likely to the proportion of biomass removed by livestock in the Nebraska Sandhills. Overall, 60.6% of the study area was (normal) performing near its EEP, 3.0% was severely underperforming, 5.0% was highly overperforming, and the remainder was slightly underperforming or overperforming. Generally, disturbances such as fires, floods, and insect damage, in addition to high grazing intensity, result in a negative EPA. Conversely, mature stands and appropriate management often result in positive EPA values. This method provides information critical to land managers to evaluate the appropriateness of previous management practices and restoration efforts and quantify disturbance impacts. Results are at a scale sufficient for many of the large management units of the region and for locating areas needing further investigation. Applications of EPA data to monitoring invasive species, grazing impacts, and vulnerability to plant community shifts have been suggested by land management professionals.

Arizona;Colorado;Kansas;Nebraska;New Mexico;South ↗
USGS2009

The scientific assessment and strategy team contributions assessing the 1993 flood on the Mississippi and Missouri River basins

The Scientific Assessment and Strategy Team was formed to provide scientific advice and assistance to federal officials responsible for making decisions with respect to flood recovery in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (above Cairo, Illinois) as a result of the 1993 flooding. The team assembled data from a wide variety of sources within federal, state, and local governments, and the private sector. The huge volume of data (over 250 gigabytes) made analysis of all the data difficult. The locating, obtaining, and conversion of the data were extremely difficult leading to a recommendation for an on-line source or at least an on-line listing of available data. Parts of the data were analyzed and scientific bases were establishedfor discussions concerning levee effects on flood stages, effects of wetlands on flooding , effects of man 's increased intervention in the floodplains and uplands, and proposals regarding floodways on the nations rivers. The data collected indicated that the 1993 flooding could not be attributed to man's intervention on the floodplain but to the excessive amount of rainfall in the basin. The stormpatterns thatproduced the rainfall also moved south at about the same speed as the flood waters resulting in storms later in the summer reinforcing early floods. This resulted in a very long duration flood that overwhelmed existing flood reduction measures in the portions of the basin that were flooded.

Mississppi River basin, Missouri River basin↗
USGS2014

Growth and smolting in lower-mode Atlantic Salmon stocked into the Penobscot River, Maine

Restoration of Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar in Maine has relied on hatchery-produced fry and smolts for critical stocking strategies. Stocking fry minimizes domestication selection, but these fish have poor survival. Conversely, stocked smolts have little freshwater experience but provide higher adult returns. Lower-mode (LM) fish, those not growing fast enough to ensure smolting by the time of stocking, are a by-product of the smolt program and are an intermediate hatchery product. From 2002 to 2009, between 70,000 and 170,000 marked LM Atlantic Salmon were stocked into the Pleasant River (a tributary in the Penobscot River drainage, Maine) in late September to early October. These fish were recaptured as actively migrating smolts (screw trapping), as nonmigrants (electrofishing), and as returning adults to the Penobscot River (Veazie Dam trap). Fork length (FL) was measured and a scale sample was taken to retrospectively estimate FL at winter annulus one (FW1) using the intercept-corrected direct proportion model. The LM fish were observed to migrate as age-1, age-2, and infrequently as age-3 smolts. Those migrating as age-1 smolts had a distinctly larger estimated FL at FW1 (>112 mm) than those that remained in the river for at least one additional year. At the time of migration, age-2 and age-3 smolts were substantially larger than age-1 smolts. Returning adult Atlantic Salmon of LM origin had estimated FLs at FW1 that corresponded to smolt age (greater FL for age 1 than age 2). The LM product produces both age-1 and age-2 smolts that have greater freshwater experience than hatchery smolts and may have growth and fitness advantages. The data from this study will allow managers to better assess the probability of smolting age and manipulate hatchery growth rates to produce a targeted-size LM product.

Maine↗
USGS2017

Future of Pacific salmon in the face of environmental change: Lessons from one of the world's remaining productive salmon regions

Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. face serious challenges from climate and landscape change, particularly in the southern portion of their native range. Conversely, climate warming appears to be allowing salmon to expand northwards into the Arctic. Between these geographic extremes, in the Gulf of Alaska region, salmon are at historically high abundances but face an uncertain future due to rapid environmental change. We examined changes in climate, hydrology, land cover, salmon populations, and fisheries over the past 30–70 years in this region. We focused on the Kenai River, which supports world-famous fisheries but where Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha populations have declined, raising concerns about their future resilience. The region is warming and experiencing drier summers and wetter autumns. The landscape is also changing, with melting glaciers, wetland loss, wildfires, and human development. This environmental transformation will likely harm some salmon populations while benefiting others. Lowland salmon streams are especially vulnerable, but retreating glaciers may allow production gains in other streams. Some fishing communities harvest a diverse portfolio of fluctuating resources, whereas others have specialized over time, potentially limiting their resilience. Maintaining diverse habitats and salmon runs may allow ecosystems and fisheries to continue to thrive amidst these changes.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

Water levels shape fishing participation in flood-control reservoirs

We examined the relationship between fishing effort (hours fished) and average March–May water level in 3 flood control reservoirs in Mississippi. Fishing effort increased as water level rose, peaked at intermediate water levels, and decreased at high water levels. We suggest that the observed arched-shaped relationship is driven by the shifting influence of fishability (adequacy of the fishing circumstances from an angler's perspective) and catch rate along a water level continuum. Fishability reduces fishing effort during low water, despite the potential for higher catch rates. Conversely, reduced catch rates and fishability at high water also curtail effort. Thus, both high and low water levels seem to discourage fishing effort, whereas anglers seem to favor intermediate water levels. Our results have implications for water level management in reservoirs with large water level fluctuations.

Mississippi↗
USGS2008

Trace fossils and sedimentary facies from a Late Cambrian‐Early Ordovician tide‐dominated shelf (Santa Rosita Formation, northwest Argentina): Implications for ichnofacies models of shallow marine successions

The Santa Rosita Formation is one the most widely distributed lower Paleozoic units of northwest Argentina. At the Quebrada del Salto Alto section, east of Purmamarca, Jujuy Province, it is represented by four sedimentary facies: thick‐bedded planar cross‐stratified quartzose sandstones (A), thin‐bedded planar cross‐stratified quartzose sandstones and mudstones (B), wave‐rippled sandstones and bioturbated mudstones (C), and black and greenish gray shales (D). Paleocurrent data, sandstone architecture, and sedimentary structures from faciès A and B indicate bipolar/bimodal paleoflows, suggesting the action of tidal currents. The succession is interpreted as that of a tide‐dominated shelf, with only secondary influence of wave processes. Trace fossils are restricted to facies B and C. The Cruziana ichnocoenosis is preserved on the soles of thin‐bedded planar cross‐stratified quartzose sandstones (faciès B). This ichnocoenosis consists of Conostichus isp., Cruziana omanica, C. semiplicata, C. cf. tortworthi, Cruziana isp. Helminthopsis abeli, Monomorphichnus bilinearis, M. multilineatus, Palaeophycus tubularis, Rusophycus carbonarias, R. latus , and R. isp. The occurrence of Cruziana semiplicata , C. omanica, C. cf. tortworthi , and Rusophycus latus supports a Late Cambrian‐Tremadoc age. Slabbing of Cruziana shows complex interactions between biologic and sedimentologic processes, and suggests a predominance of exhumed traces, washed out and recast by tractive sand deposition. Sandstone soles are densely packed with biogenic structures and exhibit distinctive clusters of Rusophycus isp. that most likely represent trilobite nesting burrows. The Cruziana ichnocoenosis records the resident fauna of a protected, lower intertidal to subtidal interbar setting. The Skolithos ichnocoenosis is represented by high to low density vertical burrows of Skolithos linearis , which extend downwards to the quartzose sandstone soles of faciès B and cross the Cruziana ichnocoenosis. The Skolithos ichnocoenosis represents colonization by suspension‐feeding organisms following a major change in environmental conditions, related to the migration of lower intertidal to subtidal sandwaves. The Planolites ichnocoenosis consists exclusively of Planolites montanus within mudstones overlying wave‐rippled sandstones (facies C). The Planolites ichnocoenosis records opportunistic colonization by inf aunal deposit feeders that mined the organic‐rich fine‐grained sediment during the waning phase of storms that scoured organic detritus from the sea bottom. The section records, from base to top, a Cruziana‐Skolithos ichnofacies zone, a Skolithos ichnofacies zone and an unbioturbated zone typified by the thick‐bedded cross‐stratified quartzose sandstone (fades A). This trend reflects progressively higher energy conditions linked to the establishment of a large sand wave complex. The presence of a mixed Cruziana‐Skolithos ichnofacies in the lower interval reflects changes in substrate and energy levels, rather than water depth. Accordingly, contrasting ichnocoenoses from interbars (Cruziana) and sandwaves (Skolithos) must be considered an example of ichnofacies controlled by local parameters instead of general bathymétrie trends. Conversely, the vertical replacement of the Cruziana ichnofacies by the Skolithos ichnofacies towards the middle interval of the section reflects the environmental changes associated with the transition between the intertidal and subtidal zones. As overall tidal energy increases from supratidal to subtidal settings, the Skolithos ichnofacies tends to occur seaward of the Cruziana ichnofacies in tide‐dominated shallow marine environments. Therefore, onshore‐offshore ichnofacies replacement in tide‐dominated shallow seas is opposite to that in wave‐dominated marine settings.

Ichnos: An International Journal for Plant and Ani↗
USGS2013

Transport and fate of microbial pathogens in agricultural settings

An understanding of the transport and survival of microbial pathogens (pathogens hereafter) in agricultural settings is needed to assess the risk of pathogen contamination to water and food resources, and to develop control strategies and treatment options. However, many knowledge gaps still remain in predicting the fate and transport of pathogens in runoff water, and then through the shallow vadose zone and groundwater. A number of transport pathways, processes, factors, and mathematical models often are needed to describe pathogen fate in agricultural settings. The level of complexity is dramatically enhanced by soil heterogeneity, as well as by temporal variability in temperature, water inputs, and pathogen sources. There is substantial variability in pathogen migration pathways, leading to changes in the dominant processes that control pathogen transport over different spatial and temporal scales. For example, intense rainfall events can generate runoff and preferential flow that can rapidly transport pathogens. Pathogens that survive for extended periods of time have a greatly enhanced probability of remaining viable when subjected to such rapid-transport events. Conversely, in dry seasons, pathogen transport depends more strongly on retention at diverse environmental surfaces controlled by a multitude of coupled physical, chemical, and microbiological factors. These interactions are incompletely characterized, leading to a lack of consensus on the proper mathematical framework to model pathogen transport even at the column scale. In addition, little is known about how to quantify transport and survival parameters at the scale of agricultural fields or watersheds. This review summarizes current conceptual and quantitative models for pathogen transport and fate in agricultural settings over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The authors also discuss the benefits that can be realized by improved modeling, and potential treatments to mitigate the risk of waterborne disease transmission.

Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Tech↗
USGS2019

Bioprocessed soybean meal replacement of fish meal in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) diets

This 125-day experiment evaluated the growth of adult rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) fed one of three isonitrogenous and isocaloric diets (46% protein, 16% lipid). Fish meal was the primary protein source for the reference diet, which was compared to two other diets where bioprocessed soybean meal replaced 60% or 80% of the dietary fish meal. At the end of the experiment, there were no significant differences in gain, percent gain, feed conversion ratio, or specific growth rate among the dietary treatments. There were also no significant differences in intestinal morphology, splenosomatic index, hepatosomatic index, and viscerosomatic index among the diets. Based on these results, bioprocessed soybean meal can replace at least 80% of the fish meal in adult rainbow trout diets.

Cogent Food & Agriculture↗
USGS2003

Effect of hydrologic and geochemical conditions on oxygen-enhanced bioremediation in a gasoline-contaminated aquifer

The effect of pre-existing factors, e.g., hydrologic, geochemical, and microbiological properties, on the results of oxygen addition to a reformulated gasoline-contaminated groundwater system was studied. Oxygen addition with an oxygen-release compound (a proprietary form of magnesium peroxide produced different results with respect to dissolved oxygen (DO) generation and contaminant decrease in the two locations. Oxygen-release compound injected at the former UST source area did not significantly change measured concentrations of DO, benzene, toluene, or MTBE. Conversely, oxygen-release compound injected 200 m downgradient of the former UST source area rapidly increased DO levels, and benzene, toluene, and MTBE concentrations decreased substantially. The different results could be related to differences in hydrologic and geochemical conditions that characterized the two locations prior to oxygen addition. The lack of recharge to ground water in the paved UST source area led to a much larger geochemical sink for DO compared to ground water in the unpaved area.

Bioremediation Journal↗
USGS2025

Practical pathways for protecting headwater streams in urbanizing areas

Headwater streams are diverse ecosystems and important sources of water and dissolved and particulate resources to the downstream river network. However, across the world, they are rapidly being degraded or lost through human activities, particularly urban development. This degradation and loss have negative consequences for the structure and function of headwater streams, as well as downstream river networks. Despite long-held recognition of the ecological value of headwater streams and the impacts of their widespread loss, there remains a large gap between developing strategies and tangible action. To address this gap, we, a group of cross-disciplinary researchers and practitioners from multiple organizations and locations, developed a framework to guide strategic decision-making and a comprehensive set of structural and nonstructural tools that can be used to protect headwater streams in urbanizing areas where opportunities to protect waterway health are being considered by local waterway practitioners and the community. The framework was tested by applying it to 4 contrasting case studies of urbanization with different physiographic, policy, and legislative settings. Our evaluation showed that the framework provides a useful generic mechanism that can be used by policymakers, planners, and other stakeholders to diagnose the status of headwater stream protection in a variety of urban areas and to support structured stakeholder conversations about what is desirable, practical, and achievable for their context.

Freshwater Science↗
USGS2011

The greenhouse gas flux and potential global warming feedbacks of a northern macrotidal and microtidal salt marsh

Conversion of wetlands by drainage for agriculture or other anthropogenic activities could have a negative or positive feedback to global warming (GWF). We suggest that a major predictor of the GWF is salinity of the wetland soil (a proxy for available sulfate), a factor often ignored in other studies. We assess the radiative balance of two northern salt marshes with average soil salinities > 20 ppt, but with high (macro-) and low (micro-) tidal amplitudes. The flux of greenhouse gases from soils at the end of the growing season averaged 485 ± 253 mg m -2 h -1 , 13 ± 30 μg m -2 h -1 , and 19 ± 58 μg m -2 h -1 in the microtidal marsh and 398 ± 201 mg m -2 h -1 , 2 ± 26 μg m -2 h -1 , and 35 ± 77 μg m -2 h -1 in the macrotidal marsh for CO 2 , N 2 O, and CH 4 , respectively. High rates of C sequestration mean that loss of these marshes would have a radiative balance of - 981 CO 2 _eq. m -2 yr -1 in the microtidal and - 567 CO 2 _eq. m -2 yr -1 in the macrotidal marsh.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2013

Land use and carbon dynamics in the southeastern United States from 1992 to 2050

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) plays an important role in determining the spatial distribution, magnitude, and temporal change of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. However, the impacts of LUCC are not well understood and quantified over large areas. The goal of this study was to quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon dynamics in various terrestrial ecosystems in the southeastern United States from 1992 to 2050 using a process-based modeling system and then to investigate the impacts of LUCC. Spatial LUCC information was reconstructed and projected using the FOREcasting SCEnarios of future land cover (FORE-SCE) model according to information derived from Landsat observations and other sources. Results indicated that urban expansion (from 3.7% in 1992 to 9.2% in 2050) was expected to be the primary driver for other land cover changes in the region, leading to various declines in forest, cropland, and hay/pasture. The region was projected to be a carbon sink of 60.4 gC m −2 yr −1 on average during the study period, primarily due to the legacy impacts of large-scale conversion of cropland to forest that happened since the 1950s. Nevertheless, the regional carbon sequestration rate was expected to decline because of the slowing down of carbon accumulation in aging forests and the decline of forest area.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2018

Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can have profound effects on terrestrial carbon dynamics, yet their effects on the global carbon budget remain uncertain. While land change impacts on ecosystem carbon dynamics have been the focus of numerous studies, few efforts have been based on observational data incorporating multiple ecosystem types spanning large geographic areas over long time horizons. In this study we use a variety of synoptic-scale remote sensing data to estimate the effect of LULC changes associated with urbanization, agricultural expansion and contraction, forest harvest, and wildfire on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems (forest, grasslands, shrublands, and agriculture) in the conterminous United States (i.e. excluding Alaska and Hawaii) between 1973 and 2010. We estimate large net declines in the area of agriculture and forest, along with relatively small increases in grasslands and shrublands. The largest net change in any class was an estimated gain of 114 865 km 2 of developed lands, an average rate of 3282 km 2 yr −1 . On average, US ecosystems sequestered carbon at an annual rate of 254 Tg C yr −1 . In forest lands, the net sink declined by 35% over the study period, largely a result of land-use legacy, increasing disturbances, and reductions in forest area due to land use conversion. Uncertainty in LULC change data contributed to a ~16% margin of error in the annual carbon sink estimate prior to 1985 (approximately ±40 Tg C yr −1 ). Improvements in LULC and disturbance mapping starting in the mid-1980s reduced this uncertainty by ~50% after 1985. We conclude that changes in LULC are a critical component to understanding ecosystem carbon dynamics, and continued improvements in detection, quantification, and attribution of change have the potential to significantly reduce current uncertainties.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2019

Scenarios of climate adaptation potential on protected working lands from management of soils

Management of protected lands may enhance ecosystem services that conservation programs were designed to protect. Practices that build soil organic matter (SOM) on agricultural lands also increase soil water holding capacity, potentially reducing climatic water deficit (CWD), increasing actual evapotranspiration (AET) and increasing groundwater recharge (RCH). We developed nine spatially-explicit land use and conservation scenarios (2001 - 2100) in the LUCAS land use change model to address two questions for California working lands (cropland and rangeland): How does land use change limit opportunities to manage soils for hydrologic climate adaptation benefits? To what extent and where can soil management practices increase climate adaptation on protected working lands? Hydrologic benefits [∑(∆CWD, ∆AET, ∆RCH)] due to soil management were simulated in the Basin Characterization Model (a state-wide water balance model) for two Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate models. LUCAS simulated land conversion and new conservation easements with potential for maximum hydrologic benefits. Climate drove differences in lost potential for water benefits due to urbanization (33.9 - 87.6 m3 x 106) in 2050. Conflict between development pressure and potential hydrologic benefits occurred most in Santa Clara County in the San Francisco Bay Area and Shasta County in Northern Sacramento Valley. Hydrologic benefits on easements were similar in magnitude to losses from development. Water savings from management of California Land Conservation (a.k.a. Williamson) Act contract lands were an order of magnitude greater, totaling over 460 m3 x106 annually in a drier climate by 2050. Few counties provide most benefits because of soil properties, climate and land area protected. The increase in hydrologic benefits varies by agricultural practice and adoption rate, land use type and configuration, and terms of conservation agreements. The effectiveness of programs designed to improve climate adaptation at county to state scales will likely increase by taking this variability into consideration.

California↗
USGS2019

Understanding tidal marsh trajectories: Evaluation of multiple indicators of marsh persistence

Robust assessments of ecosystem stability are critical for informing conservation and management decisions. Tidal marsh ecosystems provide vital services, yet are globally threatened by anthropogenic alterations to physical and biological processes. A variety of monitoring and modeling approaches have been undertaken to determine which tidal marshes are likely to persist into the future. Here, we conduct the most robust comparison of marsh metrics to date, building on two foundational studies that had previously and independently developed metrics for marsh condition. We characterized pairs of marshes with contrasting trajectories (of marsh cover ) across six regions of the United States, using a combination of remote-sensing and field-based metrics. We also quantified decadal trends in marsh conversion to mudflat/open water at these twelve marshes. Our results suggest that metrics quantifying the distribution of vegetation across an elevational gradient represent the best indicators of marsh trajectories. The unvegetated to vegetated ratio and flood-ebb sediment differential also served as valuable indicators. No single metric universally predicted marsh trajectories, and therefore a more robust approach includes a suite of spatially integrated, landscape-scale metrics that are mostly obtainable from remote sensing. Data from surface elevation tables and marker horizons revealed that degrading marshes can have higher rates of vertical accretion and elevation gain than more intact counterparts, likely due to longer inundation times potentially combined with internal recycling of material. A high rate of elevation gain relative to local sea-level rise has been considered critical to marsh persistence, but our results suggest that it also may serve as a signature of degradation in marshes that have already begun to deteriorate. This investigation, with rigorous comparison and integration of metrics initially developed independently, tested at a broad geographic scale, provides a model for collaborative science to develop management tools for improving conservation outcomes.

Environmental Research Letters↗