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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 883 records · Page 49Linked to original sources
USGS1999

Defining landscapes suitable for restoration of grizzly bears Ursus arctos in Idaho

Informed management of large carnivores depends on the timely and useful presentation of relevant information. We describe an approach to evaluating carnivore habitat that uses pre-existing qualitative and quantitative information on humans and carnivores to generate coarse-scale maps of habitat suitability, habitat productivity, potential reserves, and areas of potential conflict. We use information pertinent to the contemplated reintroduction of grizzly bears Ursus arctos horribilis into central Idaho to demonstrate our approach. The approach uses measures of human numbers, their estimated distribution, road and trail access, and abundance and quality of bear foods to create standardized indices that are analogues of death and birth rates, respectively; the first subtracted from the second indicates habitat suitability ( HS ). We calibrate HS to sightings of grizzly bears in two ecosystems in northern Idaho and develop an empirical model from these same sightings based on piece-wise treatment of the variables contained in HS . Depending on whether the empirical model or HS is used, we estimate that there is 14 800 km 2 of suitable habitat in two blocks or 37 100 km 2 in one block in central Idaho, respectively. Both approaches show suitable habitat in the current Evaluation Area and in an area of southeastern Idaho centered on the Palisades Reservoir. Areas of highly productive habitat are concentrated in northern and western Idaho and in the Palisades area. Future conflicts between humans and bears are most likely to occur on the western and northern margins of suitable habitat in central Idaho, rather than to the east, where opposition to reintroduction of grizzly bears is currently strongest.

Idaho↗
USGS2005

Managing Fire in the Northern Chihuahuan Desert: A Review and Analysis of the Literature

Executive Summary This report began as a literature review (Gebow and Halvorson 2001) conducted for fire planners at Carlsbad Caverns National Park who were seeking information about (1) the natural state of park vegetation, (2) northern Chihuahuan Desert natural fire regimes, and (3) fire effects on park plant species. It is the goal of managers there to continue to refine the wildland and prescribed fire program as they learn more about the ecosystems at the park.The park has a history of grazing and then fire suppression in the 20th century. The current effort revisits questions asked by earlier workers at the park, Walter Kittams and Gary Ahlstrand, who began fire studies in the 1970s. This document addresses ecosystems and historical change to those systems in Chihuahuan Desert areas of southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, west Texas, or in neighboring regions that share the same plant species. It examines fire literature for situations possibly analogous to those at Carlsbad Caverns. It also includes papers that offer advice on extrapolating future ecological trends from past ones (Swetnam et al. 1999) and on resource management decision-making (Grumbine 1997), and other pieces that address broader aspects of fire or landscape change (Goldman 1994; Marston 1996; Mutch 1994, 1995). These more philosophical works were included in the original review at the park's request and have been retained here because they discuss other issues relevant to fire management. Individual reviews of 35 papers, as requested originally by Carlsbad Caverns, appear in Appendix 1. The results section-summary of key findings-discusses historical changes to plant communities then focuses on burn intervals observed or recommended by workers for particular plant communities. Results from a search of the USDA Forest Service's Fire Effects Information System (www.fs.fed.us/database/feis) are also included in this report, supplemented with information from a review conducted by Ahlstrand (1981b) that included much of his own work. This database contains comprehensive plant species accounts and fire effects data. Entries are available for a number of the dominant species at Carlsbad Caverns, though the information frequently applies to the plants in other parts of their ranges. The literature presents highly variable fire effects and observed/recommended burn intervals for similar plant communities in the northern Chihuahuan Desert region. While local and longer-term fire-effects studies are still needed to guide resource managers, the variability seen in the literature itself translates into a fire management goal. Preserving the irregularity in time and space of fires would likely best replicate 'natural' fire regimes.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2006

Eutrophication of freshwater and marine ecosystems

Initial understanding of the links between nutrients and aquatic productivity originated in Europe in the early 1900s, and our knowledge base has expanded greatly during the past 40 yr. This explosion of eutrophication-related research has made it unequivocally clear that a comprehensive strategy to prevent excessive amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus from entering our waterways is needed to protect our lakes, rivers, and coasts from water quality deterioration. However, despite these very significant advances, cultural eutrophication remains one of the foremost problems for protecting our valuable surface water resources. The papers in this special issue provide a valuable cross section and synthesis of our current understanding of both freshwater and marine eutrophication science. They also serve to identify gaps in our knowledge and will help to guide future research.

Limnology and Oceanography↗
USGS2025

Macroinvertebrate community responses to disturbance in a fragmented river with contrasting legacies of alteration

Flow is a critical factor determining the riverine ecosystem structure and function. Widespread hydrologic alteration, however, has impacted the ecological integrity of rivers in ways that are not well understood, including responses of biological communities to increasingly frequent and severe climatic disturbances. Our study compared the responses of invertebrate communities on woody debris to large flooding and extreme drought in two highly contrasting segments of an impaired low-gradient river. The upstream segment, which according to previous research has higher α -diversity and production of large-bodied and sensitive invertebrates, maintained higher flows and longitudinal connectivity throughout the 4-year study. Communities in this upper segment resembled one another among sites (lower spatial turnover) but experienced greater temporal shifts in composition associated with hydrological disturbances. Conversely, invertebrate communities in the highly altered downstream segment, which is impaired by reduced flow, sedimentation, and hypoxia, were composed of smaller-bodied and pollution-tolerant taxa with lower α -diversity. Unlike the upper segment, communities were patchily distributed among sites (higher spatial turnover), which made it more difficult to detect system-wide temporal variation in composition throughout the study. Our study underscores the benefit of including measures of connectivity and spatial heterogeneity when assessing the ecological integrity of lotic systems. Understanding the system-wide response to disturbances across longer time frames can help better predict and mitigate the impacts of climate change on ecosystem integrity in degraded rivers.

River Research and Applications↗
USGS2005

Effects of stream flow intermittency on riparian vegetation of a semiarid region river (San Pedro River, Arizona)

The San Pedro River in the southwestern United States retains a natural flood regime and has several reaches with perennial stream flow and shallow ground water. However, much of the river flows intermittently. Urbanization-linked declines in regional ground-water levels have raised concerns over the future status of the riverine ecosystem in some parts of the river, while restoration-linked decreases in agricultural ground-water pumping are expected to increase stream flows in other parts. This study describes the response of the streamside herbaceous vegetation to changes in stream flow permanence. During the early summer dry season, streamside herbaceous cover and species richness declined continuously across spatial gradients of flow permanence, and composition shifted from hydric to mesic species at sites with more intermittent flow. Hydrologic threshold values were evident for one plant functional group: Schoenoplectus acutus, Juncus torreyi, and other hydric riparian plants declined sharply in cover with loss of perennial stream flow. In contrast, cover of mesic riparian perennials (including Cynodon dactylon, an introduced species) increased at sites with intermittent flow. Patterns of hydric and mesic riparian annuals varied by season: in the early summer dry season their cover declined continuously as flow became more intermittent, while in the late summer wet season their cover increased as the flow became more intermittent. Periodic drought at the intermittent sites may increase opportunities for establishment of these annuals during the monsoonal flood season. During the late summer flood season, stream flow was present at most sites, and fewer vegetation traits were correlated with flow permanence; cover and richness were correlated with other environmental factors including site elevation and substrate nitrate level and particle size. Although perennial-flow and intermittent-flow sites support different streamside plant communities, all of the plant functional groups are abundant at perennial-flow sites when viewing the ecosystem at broader spatial and temporal scales: mesic riparian perennials are common in the floodplain zone adjacent to the river channel and late-summer hydric and mesic annuals are periodically abundant after large floods. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

River Research and Applications↗
USGS2019

Off-channel waterbodies in the Middle Mississippi River: A pilot investigation

Off-channel and floodplain water bodies are important components of large river ecosystems while rare within the Middle Mississippi River. The lack of these habitats likely influences water quality, nutrient processing, and communities of organisms. In early 2016 a major flood event breached two levees south of Cape Girardeau, MO resulting in the creation of two new backwaters—Len Small and Backwater MO 35.5. Water quality, metabolic rate, and fish community data were collected from the new backwaters as well as Horseshow Lake an isolated floodplain lake. Backwater conditions were often different from the main channel with backwaters being warmer and with greater water clarity throughout the study. Nutrient concentrations were often different from the main channel and exhibited similar patterns to those observed in the Upper Mississippi River. One backwater showed high rates of primary productivity (NEP) along with the floodplain lake. Differences between backwater metabolic rates may be due in part to differences in size and connectivity to the river. Fish communities were different between waterbodies with a number of lacustrine species observed in the floodplain lake. Habitat and feeding guilds were also different between waterbodies. Diversity was also not significantly different between waterbodies. This study represents novel findings for off-channel habitats on the Middle Mississippi River and the opportunity to explore the establishment of new habitat types. Ultimately, we view MO 35.5, Len Small, and Horseshoe Lake as important habitats within the larger riverine ecosystem. There remains much to be learned if restoration activities based on backwater creation within the MMR are to be successful but these preliminary and early stage results indicate these areas are already providing important and variable environmental conditions to riverine organisms.

Illinois, Missouri↗
USGS2016

Spatially explicit modeling in ecology: A review

The use of spatially explicit models (SEMs) in ecology has grown enormously in the past two decades. One major advancement has been that fine-scale details of landscapes, and of spatially dependent biological processes, such as dispersal and invasion, can now be simulated with great precision, due to improvements in computer technology. Many areas of modeling have shifted toward a focus on capturing these fine-scale details, to improve mechanistic understanding of ecosystems. However, spatially implicit models (SIMs) have played a dominant role in ecology, and arguments have been made that SIMs, which account for the effects of space without specifying spatial positions, have an advantage of being simpler and more broadly applicable, perhaps contributing more to understanding. We address this debate by comparing SEMs and SIMs in examples from the past few decades of modeling research. We argue that, although SIMs have been the dominant approach in the incorporation of space in theoretical ecology, SEMs have unique advantages for addressing pragmatic questions concerning species populations or communities in specific places, because local conditions, such as spatial heterogeneities, organism behaviors, and other contingencies, produce dynamics and patterns that usually cannot be incorporated into simpler SIMs. SEMs are also able to describe mechanisms at the local scale that can create amplifying positive feedbacks at that scale, creating emergent patterns at larger scales, and therefore are important to basic ecological theory. We review the use of SEMs at the level of populations, interacting populations, food webs, and ecosystems and argue that SEMs are not only essential in pragmatic issues, but must play a role in the understanding of causal relationships on landscapes.

Ecosystems↗
USGS2005

Assessing uncertainty in ecological systems using global sensitivity analyses: A case example of simulated wolf reintroduction effects on elk

Often landmark conservation decisions are made despite an incomplete knowledge of system behavior and inexact predictions of how complex ecosystems will respond to management actions. For example, predicting the feasibility and likely effects of restoring top-level carnivores such as the gray wolf ( Canis lupus ) to North American wilderness areas is hampered by incomplete knowledge of the predator-prey system processes and properties. In such cases, global sensitivity measures, such as Sobol’ indices, allow one to quantify the effect of these uncertainties on model predictions. Sobol’ indices are calculated by decomposing the variance in model predictions (due to parameter uncertainty) into main effects of model parameters and their higher order interactions. Model parameters with large sensitivity indices can then be identified for further study in order to improve predictive capabilities. Here, we illustrate the use of Sobol’ sensitivity indices to examine the effect of parameter uncertainty on the predicted decline of elk ( Cervus elaphus ) population sizes following a hypothetical reintroduction of wolves to Olympic National Park, Washington, USA. The strength of density dependence acting on survival of adult elk and magnitude of predation were the most influential factors controlling elk population size following a simulated wolf reintroduction. In particular, the form of density dependence in natural survival rates and the per-capita predation rate together accounted for over 90% of variation in simulated elk population trends. Additional research on wolf predation rates on elk and natural compensations in prey populations is needed to reliably predict the outcome of predator–prey system behavior following wolf reintroductions.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2018

A semi-arid river in distress: Contributing factors and recovery solutions for three imperiled freshwater mussels (Family Unionidae) endemic to the Rio Grande basin in North America

Freshwater resources in arid and semi-arid regions are in extreme demand, which creates conflicts between needs of humans and aquatic ecosystems. The Rio Grande basin in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico exemplifies this issue, as much of its aquatic biodiversity is in peril as a result of human activities. Unionid mussels have been disproportionately impacted, though the specific factors responsible for their decline remain largely unknown. This is problematic because the Rio Grande basin harbors one federally endangered unionid mussel ( Popenaias popeii , Texas Hornshell) plus two other mussel species ( Potamilus metnecktayi , Salina Mucket; and Truncilla cognata , Mexican Fawnsfoot), which are also being considered for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. To date, surveys for these species have not corrected for variability in detection so current range estimates may be inaccurate. Using single occupancy-modeling to estimate detection and occupancy at 115 sites along ~800 river kilometers of the Rio Grande in Texas, we found that detection probabilities were relatively high, indicating that our survey design was efficient. In contrast, the estimated occupancy was low, indicating that our focal species were likely rare within the Rio Grande drainage. In general, the predicted occupancy of our focal species was low throughout their respective ranges, indicating possible range declines. A comparison of currently occupied ranges to presumptive ranges underscores this point. The best-approximating models indicated that occupancy was influenced by habitat, water quantity and quality, and proximity to large-scale human activities, such as dams and major urban centers. We also discuss a series of conservation options that may not only improve the long-term prognosis of our focal species but also other aquatic taxa.

Rio Grande basin↗
USGS2011

Diel biogeochemical processes and their effect on the aqueous chemistry of streams: A review

This review summarizes biogeochemical processes that operate on diel, or 24-h, time scales in streams and the changes in aqueous chemistry that are associated with these processes. Some biogeochemical processes, such as those producing diel cycles of dissolved O 2 and pH, were the first to be studied, whereas processes producing diel concentration cycles of a broader spectrum of chemical species including dissolved gases, dissolved inorganic and organic carbon, trace elements, nutrients, stable isotopes, and suspended particles have received attention only more recently. Diel biogeochemical cycles are interrelated because the cyclical variations produced by one biogeochemical process commonly affect another. Thus, understanding biogeochemical cycling is essential not only for guiding collection and interpretation of water-quality data but also for geochemical and ecological studies of streams. Expanded knowledge of diel biogeochemical cycling will improve understanding of how natural aquatic environments function and thus lead to better predictions of how stream ecosystems might react to changing conditions of contaminant loading, eutrophication, climate change, drought, industrialization, development, and other factors.

Chemical Geology↗
USGS2014

Importance of understanding landscape biases in USGS gage locations: Implications and solutions for managers

Flow and water temperature are fundamental properties of stream ecosystems upon which many freshwater resource management decisions are based. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gages are the most important source of streamflow and water temperature data available nationwide, but the degree to which gages represent landscape attributes of the larger population of streams has not been thoroughly evaluated. We identified substantial biases for seven landscape attributes in one or more regions across the conterminous United States. Streams with small watersheds (<10 km 2 ) and at high elevations were often underrepresented, and biases were greater for water temperature gages and in arid regions. Biases can fundamentally alter management decisions and at a minimum this potential for error must be acknowledged accurately and transparently. We highlight three strategies that seek to reduce bias or limit errors arising from bias and illustrate how one strategy, supplementing USGS data, can greatly reduce bias.

Fisheries↗
USGS2014

An online database for informing ecological network models: http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu

Ecological network models and analyses are recognized as valuable tools for understanding the dynamics and resiliency of ecosystems, and for informing ecosystem-based approaches to management. However, few databases exist that can provide the life history, demographic and species interaction information necessary to parameterize ecological network models. Faced with the difficulty of synthesizing the information required to construct models for kelp forest ecosystems along the West Coast of North America, we developed an online database ( http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu/ ) to facilitate the collation and dissemination of such information. Many of the database's attributes are novel yet the structure is applicable and adaptable to other ecosystem modeling efforts. Information for each taxonomic unit includes stage-specific life history, demography, and body-size allometries. Species interactions include trophic, competitive, facilitative, and parasitic forms. Each data entry is temporally and spatially explicit. The online data entry interface allows researchers anywhere to contribute and access information. Quality control is facilitated by attributing each entry to unique contributor identities and source citations. The database has proven useful as an archive of species and ecosystem-specific information in the development of several ecological network models, for informing management actions, and for education purposes (e.g., undergraduate and graduate training). To facilitate adaptation of the database by other researches for other ecosystems, the code and technical details on how to customize this database and apply it to other ecosystems are freely available and located at the following link ( https://github.com/kelpforest-cameo/databaseui ).

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2021

Incorporation of uncertainty to improve projections of tidal wetland elevation and carbon accumulation with sea-level rise

Understanding the rates and patterns of tidal wetland elevation changes relative to sea-level is essential for understanding the extent of potential wetland loss over the coming years. Using an enhanced and more flexible modeling framework of an ecosystem model (WARMER-2), we explored sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on wetland elevations and carbon sequestration rates through 2100 by considering plant community transitions, salinity effects on productivity, and changes in sediment availability. We incorporated local experimental results for plant productivity relative to inundation and salinity into a species transition model, as well as site-level estimates of organic matter decomposition. The revised modeling framework includes an improved calibration scheme that more accurately reconstructs soil profiles and incorporates parameter uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulations. Using WARMER-2, we evaluated elevation change in three tidal wetlands in the San Francisco Bay Estuary, CA, USA along an estuarine tidal and salinity gradient with varying scenarios of SLR, salinization, and changes in sediment availability. We also tested the sensitivity of marsh elevation and carbon accumulation rates to different plant productivity functions. Wetland elevation at all three sites was sensitive to changes in sediment availability, but sites with greater initial elevations or space for upland transgression persisted longer under higher SLR rates than sites at lower elevations. Using a multi-species wetland vegetation transition model for organic matter contribution to accretion, WARMER-2 projected increased elevations relative to sea levels (resilience) and higher rates of carbon accumulation when compared with projections assuming no future change in vegetation with SLR. A threshold analysis revealed that all three wetland sites were likely to eventually transition to an unvegetated state with SLR rates above 7 mm/yr. Our results show the utility in incorporating additional estuary-specific parameters to bolster confidence in model projections. The new WARMER-2 modeling framework is widely applicable to other tidal wetland ecosystems and can assist in teasing apart important drivers of wetland elevation change under SLR.

California↗
USGS2014

Estuarine monitoring programs in the Albemarle Sound study area, North Carolina

Albemarle Sound was selected in 2012 as one of the two demonstration sites in the Nation to test and improve the design of the National Water Quality Monitoring Council&rsquo;s National Monitoring Network (NMN) for U.S. Coastal Waters and their tributaries. The goal of the NMN for U.S. coastal waters and tributaries is to provide information about the health of our oceans and coastal ecosystems and inland influences on coastal waters for improved resource management. The NMN is an integrated, multidisciplinary, and multiorganizational program using multiple sources of data and information to augment current monitoring programs. The purpose of this report is to identify major natural resource management issues for the region, provide information on current monitoring activities occurring within the Albemarle Sound study area, determine how the current monitoring network fits into the design of the NMN, and determine what additional monitoring data are needed to address these issues. In order to address these questions, a shapefile and data table were created to document monitoring and research programs in the Albemarle Sound study area with an emphasis on current monitoring programs within the region. This database was queried to determine monitoring gaps that existed in the Albemarle Sound by comparing current monitoring programs with the design indicated by the NMN. The report uses this information to provide recommendations on how monitoring could be improved in the Albemarle Sound study area.

North Carolina↗
USGS2022

Advances in coral immunity ‘omics in response to disease outbreaks

Coral disease has progressively become one of the most pressing issues affecting coral reef survival. In the last 50 years, several reefs throughout the Caribbean have been severely impacted by increased frequency and intensity of disease outbreaks leading to coral death. A recent example of this is stony coral tissue loss disease which has quickly spread throughout the Caribbean, devastating coral reef ecosystems. Emerging from these disease outbreaks has been a coordinated research response that often integrates ‘omics techniques to better understand the coral immune system. ‘Omics techniques encompass a wide range of technologies used to identify large scale gene, DNA, metabolite, and protein expression. In this review, we discuss what is known about coral immunity and coral disease from an ‘omics perspective. We reflect on the development of biomarkers and discuss ways in which coral disease experiments to test immunity can be improved. Lastly, we consider how existing data can be better leveraged to combat future coral disease outbreaks.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗
USGS2024

Mixed responses of tenebrionid beetles to solar energy development in the Mojave Desert

Solar energy development causes land-use change and habitat alteration that may affect desert ecosystems. Tenebrionid beetles have evolved to exploit desert environments and heavily contribute to ecosystem functionality in aridlands, yet their species-specific, ecological responses to solar energy development are unknown. Our objective was to elucidate effects of solar energy development decisions at a solar power facility (392 MW) on a tenebrionid beetle community in the Mojave Desert. Seven years post-construction, we used pitfall traps to collect tenebrionid beetles for one month in treatments representing variably intense site preparation practices and conservation measures, including blading (i.e., bulldozing), mowing, and establishment of undeveloped patches in solar fields, replicated across three power blocks comprising the facility and in undeveloped control sites surrounding the facility. Blading caused significant, deleterious effects on tenebrionid beetle abundance, species richness, and diversity. Ordination revealed apparent overlap of non-bladed treatments and controls, suggesting that intermediate levels of disturbance from less intensive solar energy development decisions may serve to minimize negative effects of solar energy development on tenebrionid communities. Anepsius delicatulus and Triorophus laevis , the two most commonly collected tenebrionids, were significantly more abundant in non-bladed treatments in the solar facility than in undeveloped controls; thus, solar facilities with minimized disturbance to vegetation may provide preferred habitat for certain tenebrionid species. Our results demonstrate the value of understanding variable responses of insects to solar energy development decisions in deserts to inform real-world adaptive management of natural resources during the renewable energy transition.

California↗
USGS2024

Winter is not coming: Evaluating impacts of changing winter conditions on coregonine reproductive phenology

Fishes in northern latitude lakes are at risk from climate-induced warming because the seasonality in water temperature is degrading, which can change ecosystem properties and the phenology of life-history events. Temperature-dependent embryo development models were developed for a group of cold, stenothermic fishes (Salmonidae Coregoninae) to assess the potential impacts of climate-induced changes in water temperature on cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) from two populations in Lake Superior (Apostle Islands [USA] and Thunder Bay [Canada]) and one in Lake Ontario (USA), vendace ( C. albula ) in Lake Southern Konnevesi (Finland), and European whitefish ( C. lavaretus ) in lakes Southern Konnevesi, Constance (Germany), Geneva (France), and Annecy (France). Water temperatures for each study group were simulated and changes in reproductive phenology across historic (1900–2006) and three future climatic-warming scenarios (2007–2099) were investigated. Models predicted that increases in water temperatures are likely to cause delayed spawning, shorter embryo incubation durations, and earlier larval hatching. Relative changes increased as warming scenarios increased in severity and were higher for littoral as compared to pelagic populations. Our simulations demonstrated that slower cooling in the autumn and (or) more rapid warming in spring can translate into substantial changes in the reproductive phenology of coregonines among our study groups. We expect that the changes in reproductive phenology predicted by our models, in the absence of thermal or behavioral adaptation, will have negative implications for population sustainability.

Apostle Islands, Chaumont Bay, Lake Annecy, Lake C↗
USGS2010

Water-the Nation's Fundamental Climate Issue A White Paper on the U.S. Geological Survey Role and Capabilities

Of all the potential threats posed by climatic variability and change, those associated with water resources are arguably the most consequential for both society and the environment (Waggoner, 1990). Climatic effects on agriculture, aquatic ecosystems, energy, and industry are strongly influenced by climatic effects on water. Thus, understanding changes in the distribution, quantity and quality of, and demand for water in response to climate variability and change is essential to planning for and adapting to future climatic conditions. A central role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) with respect to climate is to document environmental changes currently underway and to develop improved capabilities to predict future changes. Indeed, a centerpiece of the USGS role is a new Climate Effects Network of monitoring sites. Measuring the climatic effects on water is an essential component of such a network (along with corresponding effects on terrestrial ecosystems). The USGS needs to be unambiguous in communicating with its customers and stakeholders, and with officials at the Department of the Interior, that although modeling future impacts of climate change is important, there is no more critical role for the USGS in climate change science than that of measuring and describing the changes that are currently underway. One of the best statements of that mission comes from a short paper by Ralph Keeling (2008) that describes the inspiration and the challenges faced by David Keeling in operating the all-important Mauna Loa Observatory over a period of more than four decades. Ralph Keeling stated: 'The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it, and this means tracking changes decade after decade and poring over the records.' There are three key ideas that are important to the USGS in the above-mentioned sentence. First, to understand what is happening requires measurement. While models are a tool for learning and testing our understanding, they are not a substitute for observations. The second key idea is that measurement needs to be done over a period of many decades. When viewing hydrologic records over time scales of a few years to a few decades, trends commonly appear. However, when viewed in the context of many decades to centuries, these short-term trends are recognized as being part of much longer term oscillations. Thus, while we might want to initiate monitoring of important aspects of our natural resources, the data that will prove to be most useful in the next few years are those records that already have long-term continuity. USGS streamflow and groundwater level data are excellent examples of such long-term records. These measured data span many decades, follow standard protocols for collection and quality assurance, and are stored in a database that provides access to the full period of record. The third point from the Keeling quote relates to the notion of ?poring over the records.? Important trends will not generally jump off the computer screen at us. Thoughtful analyses are required to get past a number of important but confounding influences in the record, such as the role of seasonal variation, changes in water management, or influences of quasi-periodic phenomena, such as El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No organization is better situated to pore over the records than the USGS because USGS scientists know the data, quality-assure the data, understand the factors that influence the data, and have the ancillary information on the watersheds within which the data are collected. To fulfill the USGS role in understanding climatic variability and change, we need to continually improve and strengthen two of our key capabilities: (1) preserving continuity of long-term water data collection and (2) analyzing and interpreting water data to determine how the Nation's water resources are changing. Understanding change in water resources

Circular↗