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USGS2020

Climate change projected to reduce prescribed burning opportunities in the south-eastern United States

Prescribed burning is a critical tool for managing wildfire risks and meeting ecological objectives, but its safe and effective application requires that specific meteorological criteria (a ‘burn window’) are met. Here, we evaluate the potential impacts of projected climatic change on prescribed burning in the south-eastern United States by applying a set of burn window criteria that capture temperature, relative humidity and wind speed to projections from an ensemble of Global Climate Models under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Regionally, the percentage of suitable days for burning changes little during winter but decreases substantially in summer owing to rising temperatures by the end of the 21st century compared with historical conditions. Management implications of such changes for six representative land management units include seasonal shifts in burning opportunities from summer to cool-season months, but with considerable regional variation. We contend that the practical constraints of rising temperatures on prescribed fire activities represent a significant future challenge and show that even meeting basic burn criteria (as defined today) will become increasingly difficult over time, which speaks to the need for adaptive management strategies to prepare for such changes.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, kentucky, Lou↗

USGS2011

Biology, status, and management of the yellowstone cutthroat trout

Yellowstone cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri were historically distributed in the Yellowstone River drainage (Montana and Wyoming) and the Snake River drainage (Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and probably Washington). Individual populations evolved distinct life history characteristics in response to the diverse environments in which they were isolated after the last glaciation. Anthropogenic activities have resulted in a substantial decline (42% of the historical range is currently occupied; 28% is occupied by core [genetically unaltered] populations), but the number of extant populations, especially in headwater streams, has precluded listing of this taxon under the Endangered Species Act. Primary threats to persistence of Yellowstone cutthroat trout include (1) invasive species, resulting in hybridization, predation, disease, and interspecific competition; (2) habitat degradation from human activities such as agricultural practices, water diversions, grazing, dam construction, mineral extraction, grazing, timber harvest, and road construction; and (3) climate change, including an escalating risk of drought, wildfire, winter flooding, and rising temperatures. Extirpation of individual populations or assemblages has led to increasing isolation and fragmentation of remaining groups, which in turn raises susceptibility to the demographic influences of disturbance (both human and stochastic) and genetic factors. Primary conservation strategies include (1) preventing risks associated with invasive species by isolating populations of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and (2) connecting occupied habitats (where possible) to preserve metapopulation function and the expression of multiple life histories. Because persistence of isolated populations may be greater in the short term, current management is focused on isolating individual populations and restoring habitats; however, this approach implies that humans will act as dispersal agents if a population is extirpated because of stochastic events.

Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2002

Recharge and groundwater models: An overview

Recharge is a fundamental component of groundwater systems, and in groundwater-modeling exercises recharge is either measured and specified or estimated during model calibration. The most appropriate way to represent recharge in a groundwater model depends upon both physical factors and study objectives. Where the water table is close to the land surface, as in humid climates or regions with low topographic relief, a constant-head boundary condition is used. Conversely, where the water table is relatively deep, as in drier climates or regions with high relief, a specified-flux boundary condition is used. In most modeling applications, mixed-type conditions are more effective, or a combination of the different types can be used. The relative distribution of recharge can be estimated from water-level data only, but flux observations must be incorporated in order to estimate rates of recharge. Flux measurements are based on either Darcian velocities (e.g., stream base-flow) or seepage velocities (e.g., groundwater age). In order to estimate the effective porosity independently, both types of flux measurements must be available. Recharge is often estimated more efficiently when automated inverse techniques are used. Other important applications are the delineation of areas contributing recharge to wells and the estimation of paleorecharge rates using carbon-14.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

USGS2019

Size distributions of Arctic waterbodies reveal consistent relations in their statistical moments in space and time

Arctic lowlands are characterized by large numbers of small waterbodies, which are known to affect surface energy budgets and the global carbon cycle. Statistical analysis of their size distributions has been hindered by the shortage of observations at sufficiently high spatial resolutions. This situation has now changed with the high-resolution (<5 m) circum-Arctic Permafrost Region Pond and Lake (PeRL) database recently becoming available. We have used this database to make the first consistent, high-resolution estimation of Arctic waterbody size distributions, with surface areas ranging from 0.0001 km 2 (100 m 2 ) to 1 km 2 . We found that the size distributions varied greatly across the thirty study regions investigated and that there was no single universal size distribution function (including power-law distribution functions) appropriate across all of the study regions. We did, however, find close relationships between the statistical moments (mean, variance, and skewness) of the waterbody size distributions from different study regions. Specifically, we found that the spatial variance increased linearly with mean waterbody size ( R 2 = 0.97, p < 2.2e-16) and that the skewness decreased approximately hyperbolically. We have demonstrated that these relationships (1) hold across the 30 Arctic study regions covering a variety of (bio)climatic and permafrost zones, (2) hold over time in two of these study regions for which multi-decadal satellite imagery is available, and (3) can be reproduced by simulating rising water levels in a high-resolution digital elevation model. The consistent spatial and temporal relationships between the statistical moments of the waterbody size distributions underscore the dominance of topographic controls in lowland permafrost areas. These results provide motivation for further analyses of the factors involved in waterbody development and spatial distribution and for investigations into the possibility of using statistical moments to predict future hydrologic dynamics in the Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS1985

Optimal management strategies in variable environments: Stochastic optimal control methods

Dynamic optimization was used to investigate the optimal defoliation of salt desert shrubs in north-western Utah. Management was formulated in the context of optimal stochastic control theory, with objective functions composed of discounted or time-averaged biomass yields. Climatic variability and community patterns of salt desert shrublands make the application of stochastic optimal control both feasible and necessary. A primary production model was used to simulate shrub responses and harvest yields under a variety of climatic regimes and defoliation patterns. The simulation results then were used in an optimization model to determine optimal defoliation strategies. The latter model encodes an algorithm for finite state, finite action, infinite discrete time horizon Markov decision processes. Three questions were addressed: (i) What effect do changes in weather patterns have on optimal management strategies? (ii) What effect does the discounting of future returns have? (iii) How do the optimal strategies perform relative to certain fixed defoliation strategies? An analysis was performed for the three shrub species, winterfat (Ceratoides lanata), shadscale (Atriplex confertifolia) and big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata). In general, the results indicate substantial differences among species in optimal control strategies, which are associated with differences in physiological and morphological characteristics. Optimal policies for big sagebrush varied less with variation in climate, reserve levels and discount rates than did either shadscale or winterfat. This was attributed primarily to the overwintering of photosynthetically active tissue and to metabolic activity early in the growing season. Optimal defoliation of shadscale and winterfat generally was more responsive to differences in plant vigor and climate, reflecting the sensitivity of these species to utilization and replenishment of carbohydrate reserves. Similarities could be seen in the influence of both the discount rate and the climatic patterns on optimal harvest strategics. In general, decreases in either the discount rate or in the frequency of favorable weather patterns lcd to a more conservative defoliation policy. This did not hold, however, for plants in states of low vigor. Optimal control for shadscale and winterfat tended to stabilize on a policy of heavy defoliation stress, followed by one or more seasons of rest. Big sagebrush required a policy of heavy summer defoliation when sufficient active shoot material is present at the beginning of the growing season. The comparison of fixed and optimal strategies indicated considerable improvement in defoliation yields when optimal strategies are followed. The superior performance was attributable to increased defoliation of plants in states of high vigor. Improvements were found for both discounted and undiscounted yields.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS1995

The role of palynology in paleoecological analyses of Tertiary coals

Pollen, spores, and other plant microfossils are important constituents of Tertiary coals, both as petrographic components (the maceral sporinite) and as distinctive indicators of the nature of the depositional environment in which the coal-forming peat accumulated. Palynological analyses, which have been conducted on Tertiary coals since the 1930's, play an increasingly important role in modern paleoecological analyses of coals. Among the most important factors controlling the petrographic composition and facies characteristics of coal deposits are the types and relative abundances of plants that composed the peat. At present, wetland environments in which peat accumulates (mires) range from marshes and bogs to forested swamps; each is inhabited by distinctive plant communities. These plant communities are associated with varied conditions of climate, water depth, chemistry, and nutrient supply, and the floras can be indicative of these conditions. In the Tertiary Period, plant communities of mires were also highly diverse and specialized (especially as compared with those of the Carboniferous). The dominant species in some Paleocene mire floras were gymnosperms, but continuing a trend begun in Late Cretaceous time, angiosperms became increasingly prominent through the Tertiary. The diverse: angiosperm-dominated mire floras produced coals that vary significantly in facies and hence in quality. Such contrasts are evident in contemporaneous coals from different paleolatitudes, as well as among, coals of different ages within the Tertiary, as exemplified by selected deposits in the western United. States. The palynofloras of these coals reflect the floristic composition of the plant communities of the ancient mires.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2016

An overview of current applications, challenges, and future trends in distributed process-based models in hydrology

Process-based hydrological models have a long history dating back to the 1960s. Criticized by some as over-parameterized, overly complex, and difficult to use, a more nuanced view is that these tools are necessary in many situations and, in a certain class of problems, they are the most appropriate type of hydrological model. This is especially the case in situations where knowledge of flow paths or distributed state variables and/or preservation of physical constraints is important. Examples of this include: spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture, groundwater flow and runoff generation, sediment and contaminant transport, or when feedbacks among various Earth’s system processes or understanding the impacts of climate non-stationarity are of primary concern. These are situations where process-based models excel and other models are unverifiable. This article presents this pragmatic view in the context of existing literature to justify the approach where applicable and necessary. We review how improvements in data availability, computational resources and algorithms have made detailed hydrological simulations a reality. Avenues for the future of process-based hydrological models are presented suggesting their use as virtual laboratories, for design purposes, and with a powerful treatment of uncertainty.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2023

A tale of two islands: Tectonic and orbital controls on marine terrace reoccupation, Channel Islands National Park, California, USA

In areas of low uplift rate on the Pacific Coast of North America, reoccupation of emergent marine terraces by later high sea-stands has been hypothesised to explain the existence of thermally anomalous fauna (mixtures of warm and cool species) of last interglacial age. If uplift rates have been low for much of the Quaternary, it follows that higher (older) terraces should also show evidence of reoccupation. Strontium isotope analyses of fossils from a high-elevation marine terrace on Anacapa Island, California, yield ages ranging from ~2.4–2.3 Ma to ~1.4–1.5 Ma. These results indicate that terrace reoccupation and fossil mixing on Anacapa Island could have taken place over several interglacial periods in the early Pleistocene. Terrace reoccupation over this time period is likely a function of both a low uplift rate and the timing of orbital forcing of glacial–interglacial cycles. Climate change in the early Pleistocene was modulated by the 41 ka obliquity cycle, and glacial–interglacial cycles were much shorter than later in the Pleistocene. Nearby San Miguel Island also has evidence of terrace reoccupation, with Sr isotope ages of shells from several high-elevation terraces ranging from ~1.21–1.25 Ma to ~0.43–0.50 Ma. However, the frequency of terrace reoccupation was lower than on Anacapa Island. The uplift rate of San Miguel Island is higher than that of Anacapa Island and terraces formed when glacial–interglacial cycles were longer. The frequency of marine terrace reoccupation is controlled by the rate of tectonic uplift and the timing of orbital forcing of sea level change during glacial–interglacial cycles.

California↗

USGS2010

Estimating aboveground biomass for broadleaf woody plants and young conifers in Sierra Nevada, California forests

Quantification of biomass is fundamental to a wide range of research and natural resource management goals. An accurate estimation of plant biomass is essential to predict potential fire behavior, calculate carbon sequestration for global climate change research, assess critical wildlife habitat, and so forth. Reliable allometric equations from simple field measurements are necessary for efficient evaluation of plant biomass. However, allometric equations are not available for many common woody plant taxa in the Sierra Nevada. In this report, we present more than 200 regression equations for the Sierra Nevada western slope that relate crown diameter, plant height, crown volume, stem diameter, and both crown diameter and height to the dry weight of foliage, branches, and entire aboveground biomass. Destructive sampling methods resulted in regression equations that accurately predict biomass from one or two simple, nondestructive field measurements. The tables presented here will allow researchers and natural resource managers to easily choose the best equations to fit their biomass assessment needs.

California↗

USGS2010

Environmental drivers of fish functional diversity and composition in the Lower Colorado River Basin

Freshwater conservation efforts require an understanding of how natural and anthropogenic factors shape the present-day biogeography of native and non-native species. This knowledge need is especially acute for imperiled native fishes in the highly modified Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB), USA. In the present study we employed both a taxonomic and functional approach to explore how natural and human-related environmental drivers shape landscape-scale patterns of fish community composition in the LCRB. Our results showed that hydrologic alteration, watershed land use, and regional climate explained 30.3% and 44.7% of the total variation in fish community taxonomic and functional composition, respectively. Watersheds with greater dam densities and upstream storage capacity supported higher non-native functional diversity, suggesting that dams have provided additional "niche opportunities" for non-native equilibrium life-history strategists by introducing new reservoir habitat and modifying downstream flow and thermal regimes. By contrast, watersheds characterized by greater upstream land protection, lower dam densities, and higher variation in spring and summer precipitation supported fish communities with a strong complement of native species (opportunistic-periodic strategists). In conclusion, our study highlights the utility of a life-history approach to better understand the patterns and processes by which fish communities vary along environmental gradients.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2003

Ocean observer study: A proposed national asset to augment the future U.S. operational satellite system

The next generation of U.S. polar orbiting environmental satellites, are now under development. These satellites, jointly developed by the Department of Defense (DoD), the Department of Commerce (DOC), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), will be known as the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS). It is expected that the first of these satellites will be launched in 2010. NPOESS has been designed to meet the operational needs of the U.S. civilian meteorological, environmental, climatic, and space environmental remote sensing programs, and the Global Military Space and Geophysical Environmental remote sensing programs. This system, however, did not meet all the needs of the user community interested in operational oceanography (particularly in coastal regions). Beginning in the fall of 2000, the Integrated Program Office (IPO), a joint DoD, DOC, and NASA office responsible for the NPOESS development, initiated the Ocean Observer Study (OOS). The purpose of this study was to assess and recommend how best to measure the missing or inadequately sampled ocean parameters. This paper summarizes the ocean measurement requirements documented in the OOS, describes the national need to measure these parameters, and describes the satellite instrumentation required to make those measurements.

Marine Technology Society Journal↗

USGS2008

100 Myr record of sequences, sedimentary facies and sea level change from Ocean Drilling Program onshore coreholes, US Mid-Atlantic coastal plain

We analyzed the latest Early Cretaceous to Miocene sections (???110-7Ma) in 11 New Jersey and Delaware onshore coreholes (Ocean Drilling Program Legs 150X and 174AX). Fifteen to seventeen Late Cretaceous and 39-40 Cenozoic sequence boundaries were identified on the basis of physical and temporal breaks. Within-sequence changes follow predictable patterns with thin transgressive and thick regressive highstand systems tracts. The few lowstands encountered provide critical constraints on the range of sea-level fall. We estimated paleowater depths by integrating lithofacies and biofacies analyses and determined ages using integrated biostratigraphy and strontium isotopic stratigraphy. These datasets were backstripped to provide a sea-level estimate for the past ???100 Myr. Large river systems affected New Jersey during the Cretaceous and latest Oligocene-Miocene. Facies evolved through eight depositional phases controlled by changes in accommodation, long-term sea level, and sediment supply: (1) the Barremian-earliest Cenomanian consisted of anastomosing riverine environments associated with warm climates, high sediment supply, and high accommodation; (2) the Cenomanian-early Turonian was dominated by marine sediments with minor deltaic influence associated with long-term (107 year) sea-level rise; (3) the late Turonian through Coniacian was dominated by alluvial and delta plain systems associated with long-term sea-level fall; (4) the Santonian-Campanian consisted of marine deposition under the influence of a wave-dominated delta associated with a long-term sea-level rise and increased sediment supply; (5) Maastrichtian-Eocene deposition consisted primarily of starved siliciclastic, carbonate ramp shelf environments associated with very high long-term sea level and low sediment supply; (6) the late Eocene-Oligocene was a starved siliciclastic shelf associated with moderately high sea-level and low sediment supply; (7) late early-middle Miocene consisted of a prograding shelf under a strong wave-dominated deltaic influence associated with major increase in sediment supply and accommodation due to local sediment loading; and (8) over the past 10 Myr, low accommodation and eroded coastal systems were associated with low long-term sea level and low rates of sediment supply due to bypassing. ?? 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2008 Blackwell Publishing.

Basin Research↗

USGS2017

A multimodal wave spectrum-based approach for statistical downscaling of local wave climate

Characterization of wave climate by bulk wave parameters is insufficient for many coastal studies, including those focused on assessing coastal hazards and long-term wave climate influences on coastal evolution. This issue is particularly relevant for studies using statistical downscaling of atmospheric fields to local wave conditions, which are often multimodal in large ocean basins (e.g. the Pacific). Swell may be generated in vastly different wave generation regions, yielding complex wave spectra that are inadequately represented by a single set of bulk wave parameters. Furthermore, the relationship between atmospheric systems and local wave conditions is complicated by variations in arrival time of wave groups from different parts of the basin. Here, we address these two challenges by improving upon the spatiotemporal definition of the atmospheric predictor used in statistical downscaling of local wave climate. The improved methodology separates the local wave spectrum into “wave families,” defined by spectral peaks and discrete generation regions, and relates atmospheric conditions in distant regions of the ocean basin to local wave conditions by incorporating travel times computed from effective energy flux across the ocean basin. When applied to locations with multimodal wave spectra, including Southern California and Trujillo, Peru, the new methodology improves the ability of the statistical model to project significant wave height, peak period, and direction for each wave family, retaining more information from the full wave spectrum. This work is the base of statistical downscaling by weather types, which has recently been applied to coastal flooding and morphodynamic applications.

Journal of Physical Oceanography↗

USGS2022

Virtual special issue of recent advances on gas hydrates scientific drilling in Alaska

Gas hydrate refers to a non-stoichiometric clathrate that forms spontaneously in the natural environment whenever sufficient quantities of gases of appropriate size (most commonly methane) interact with abundant water under specific conditions of temperature and pressure. (1,2) Such conditions occur wherever the shallow geothermal gradient has been suppressed by either deepwater or thick permafrost, allowing for relatively low temperatures to coexist with elevated pressures. The volume of gas hydrate on Earth is difficult to constrain, (3) but it is sufficient that gas hydrate is a meaningful potential component of (1) the long-term natural cycling of carbon, (2) the nearer term environmental changes in response to warming climates, (4) and (3) future energy supply systems. Since the initial recognition of gas hydrate as an abundant component in nature in the late 1960s, a series of scientific drilling expeditions conducted by both the Integrated Ocean Discovery Program (and successors) and national research and development programs in Canada, Japan, China, the United States, South Korea, and others (5) have explored the occurrence and nature of gas hydrates. In particular, the desire for expanded energy supply options to support the economic development and energy security for nations around the globe is currently motivating a broad range of laboratory and numerical simulation studies in support of an ongoing series of field-based scientific tests of the potential commercial viability of gas extraction from natural gas hydrate deposits. (6)

Journal of Energy & Fuels↗

USGS2015

Comparing ecoregional classifications for natural areas management in the Klamath Region, USA

We compared three existing ecoregional classification schemes (Bailey, Omernik, and World Wildlife Fund) with two derived schemes (Omernik Revised and Climate Zones) to explore their effectiveness in explaining species distributions and to better understand natural resource geography in the Klamath Region, USA. We analyzed presence/absence data derived from digital distribution maps for trees, amphibians, large mammals, small mammals, migrant birds, and resident birds using three statistical analyses of classification accuracy (Analysis of Similarity, Canonical Analysis of Principal Coordinates, and Classification Strength). The classifications were roughly comparable in classification accuracy, with Omernik Revised showing the best overall performance. Trees showed the strongest fidelity to the classifications, and large mammals showed the weakest fidelity. We discuss the implications for regional biogeography and describe how intermediate resolution ecoregional classifications may be appropriate for use as natural areas management domains.

Klamath Region↗

USGS2010

Factors Controlling Pre-Columbian and Early Historic Maize Productivity in the American Southwest, Part 2: The Chaco Halo, Mesa Verde, Pajarito Plateau/Bandelier, and Zuni Archaeological Regions

Chemical and nutrient analyses of 471 soil samples from 161 sites within four archaeological regions (Pajarito Plateau/Bandelier, Zuni, Mesa Verde, and the Chaco Halo) were combined with historical climate data in order to evaluate the agricultural productivity of each region. In addition, maize productivity and field-life calculations were performed using organic-nitrogen (N) values from the upper 50 cm of soil in each region and a range (1-3%/year) of N-mineralization rates. The endmember values of this range were assumed representative of dry and wet climate states. With respect to precipitation and heat, the Pajarito Plateau area has excellent agricultural potential; the agricultural potentials of the Zuni and Mesa Verde regions are good; and the agricultural potential of the Chaco Halo is poor. Calculations of N mineralization and field life indicate that Morfield Valley in Mesa Verde should be able to provide 10 bu/ac of maize for decades (without the addition of N) when organic N-mineralization rates exceed 2%. Productivity and field-life potential decrease in the following order: Zuni, Mesa Verde, Bandelier, Chaco Halo. The Chaco Halo is very unproductive; e. g., 10 bushels per acre can be achieved within the Halo only from soils having the highest organic N concentration (third quartile) and which undergo the highest rate (3%) of N mineralization. ?? 2010 US Government.

Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory↗

USGS2012

The first direct evidence of pre-columbian sources of palygorskite for Maya Blue

Maya Blue, a nano-structured clay–organic complex of palygorskite and indigo, was used predominantly before the Spanish Conquest. It has fascinated chemists, material scientists, archaeologists and art historians for decades because it is resistant to the effect of acids, alkalis, and other reagents, and its rich color has persisted for centuries in the harsh tropical climate of southern Mesoamerica. One of its components, palygorskite, is part of modern Maya indigenous knowledge, and ethnohistoric and archaeological data suggest that its modern sources were probably utilized in Prehispanic times. Yet no direct evidence verifies that palygorskite was actually mined from these sources to make Maya Blue. Here we characterize these sources compositionally, and compare our analyses to those of Maya Blue from Chichén Itzá and Palenque. We demonstrate that the palygorskite in most of these samples came from modern mines, providing the first direct evidence for the use of these sources for making Maya Blue. These findings reveal that modern Maya indigenous knowledge about palygorskite, its mining, and its source locations, is at least seven centuries old.

Journal of Archaeological Science↗

USGS2024

Low-flow period seasonality, trends, and climate linkages across the United States

Low-flow period properties, including timing, magnitude, and duration, influence many key processes for water resource managers and ecosystems. We computed annual low-flow period duration and timing metrics from 1951 to 2020 for 1032 conterminous United States (CONUS) streamgages and analyzed spatial patterns, trends through time, and relationships to climate. Results show northwestern and eastern CONUS streamgages had longer and more inter-annually consistent low-flow period durations, while central CONUS periods were shorter and more variable. Low-flow periods most often occurred in summer months but start and end dates occurred later in north-central and mountainous western CONUS, which have the greatest number of low flows during cold seasons. Low-flow periods are becoming longer in southeastern and northwestern CONUS but shorter in much of the rest of CONUS. Temperature was correlated with low-flow period duration in southeastern and northwestern CONUS, and precipitation was correlated with duration everywhere, but most strongly in eastern CONUS.

conterminous United States↗