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At least 883 records · Page 49Linked to original sources

Evaluation of unconfined-aquifer parameters from pumping test data by nonlinear least squares

Nonlinear least squares (NLS) with automatic differentiation was used to estimate aquifer parameters from drawdown data obtained from published pumping tests conducted in homogeneous, water-table aquifers. The method is based on a technique that seeks to minimize the squares of residuals between observed and calculated drawdown subject to bounds that are placed on the parameter of interest. The analytical model developed by Neuman for flow to a partially penetrating well of infinitesimal diameter situated in an infinite, homogeneous and anisotropic aquifer was used to obtain calculated drawdown. NLS was first applied to synthetic drawdown data from a hypothetical but realistic aquifer to demonstrate that the relevant hydraulic parameters (storativity, specific yield, and horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity) can be evaluated accurately. Next the method was used to estimate the parameters at three field sites with widely varying hydraulic properties. NLS produced unbiased estimates of the aquifer parameters that are close to the estimates obtained with the same data using a visual curve-matching approach. Small differences in the estimates are a consequence of subjective interpretation introduced in the visual approach.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Effect of correlated observation error on parameters, predictions, and uncertainty

Correlations among observation errors are typically omitted when calculating observation weights for model calibration by inverse methods. We explore the effects of omitting these correlations on estimates of parameters, predictions, and uncertainties. First, we develop a new analytical expression for the difference in parameter variance estimated with and without error correlations for a simple one-parameter two-observation inverse model. Results indicate that omitting error correlations from both the weight matrix and the variance calculation can either increase or decrease the parameter variance, depending on the values of error correlation (ρ) and the ratio of dimensionless scaled sensitivities (r dss ). For small ρ, the difference in variance is always small, but for large ρ, the difference varies widely depending on the sign and magnitude of r dss . Next, we consider a groundwater reactive transport model of denitrification with four parameters and correlated geochemical observation errors that are computed by an error-propagation approach that is new for hydrogeologic studies. We compare parameter estimates, predictions, and uncertainties obtained with and without the error correlations. Omitting the correlations modestly to substantially changes parameter estimates, and causes both increases and decreases of parameter variances, consistent with the analytical expression. Differences in predictions for the models calibrated with and without error correlations can be greater than parameter differences when both are considered relative to their respective confidence intervals. These results indicate that including observation error correlations in weighting for nonlinear regression can have important effects on parameter estimates, predictions, and their respective uncertainties.

Water Resources Research↗

Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

Water Resources Research↗

Crustal structure and quaternary acceleration of deformation rates in central Washington revealed by stream profile inversion, potential field geophysics, and structural geology of the Yakima folds

Post‐Miocene tectonic uplift along fault‐cored anticlines within central Washington produced the Yakima Fold Province, a region of active NNE‐SSW shortening in the Cascadian backarc. The relative timing and rate of deformation along individual structures is coarsely defined yet imperative for seismic hazard assessment. In this work, we use geomorphic and geophysical mapping, stream profile inversion, and balanced cross‐section methods to constrain fault geometries and slip rates in the Yakima Canyon region. We extract stream profiles from LiDAR data and analytically solve for the rate of relative rock uplift along several active fault‐cored anticlines. To constrain the fault geometries at depth and the long‐term magnitude of deformation, we constructed two line‐balanced cross sections across the folds with forward‐modeled magnetic and gravity anomaly data. Our stream profile results indicate an increase of incision rates in the Pleistocene, and we infer the increase is tectonically controlled. We estimate modern slip rates between 0.4 and 0.6 mm/year accommodated on reverse faults that core the Manastash Ridge, Umtanum Ridge, and Selah Butte anticlines and establish that these faults reactivate and invert older normal faults in basement rocks. Finally, we calculate the time required to accumulate sufficient strain energy for a large magnitude earthquake (M ≥ 7) along individual structures in the Yakima Fold Province. Results show that the Yakima folds likely accommodate large magnitude earthquakes and that it takes several hundred to several thousand years to accumulate sufficient strain energy for an M ≥ 7 earthquake.

Washington↗

Detecting failure of climate predictions

The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty 1 , 2 . Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies 3 . Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

Nature Climate Change↗

Analysis of barium and strontium in sediments by dc plasma emission spectrometry

The dc plasma arc is suited to analysis of barium and strontium in a wide range of sedimentary rock matrices, from sands, shales, and carbonates, to ferromanganese nodules. Samples containing 10 ppm to more than 3000 ppm barium and strontium were studied. Both alkali (3500 ppm lithium borate, from a preliminary fusion) and lanthanum salts (1%) in the final solution are needed to achieve freedom from systematic effects due to extreme variation in matrix. In the absence of La, neither Li, Na, K, nor Cs totally eliminated effects of Al and other constituents on emission. Silica addition to the fusion helps achieve proper flux viscosity to aid removal of fused beads from graphite crucibles. The effect of refractory-substance formers such as aluminum with calcium can be reduced or removed by selection of a portion of the arc for emission measurement. However, it was decided not to pursue this approach because of loss in analytical sensitivity and need for greater precision in optical adjustment. Analysis of standard rock samples showed generally satisfactory agreement with precision methods of analysis, and some new standard rock data are reported.

Applied Spectroscopy↗

Theoretical Evaluation of the Transient Response of Constant Head and Constant Flow-Rate Permeability Tests

A theoretical analysis is presented that compares the response characteristics of the constant head and the constant flowrate (flow pump) laboratory techniques for quantifying the hydraulic properties of geologic materials having permeabilities less than 10-10 m/s. Rigorous analytical solutions that describe the transient distributions of hydraulic gradient within a specimen are developed, and equations are derived for each method. Expressions simulating the inflow and outflow rates across the specimen boundaries during a constant-head permeability test are also presented. These solutions illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of each method, including insights into measurement accuracy and the validity of using Darcy's law under certain conditions. The resulting observations offer practical considerations in the selection of an appropriate laboratory test method for the reliable measurement of permeability in low-permeability geologic materials.

Geotechnical Testing Journal↗

Determination of methyl mercury by aqueous phase ethylation, followed by gas chromatographic separation with cold vapor atomic fluorescence detection

A recent national sampling of streams in the United States revealed low methyl mercury concentrations in surface waters. The resulting median and mean concentrations, calculated from 104 samples, were 0.06 nanograms per liter (ng/L) and 0.15 ng/L, respectively. This level of methyl mercury in surface water in the United States has created a need for analytical techniques capable of detecting sub-nanogram per liter concentrations. In an attempt to create a U.S. Geological Survey approved method, the Wisconsin District Mercury Laboratory has adapted a distillation/ethylation/ gas-phase separation method with cold vapor atomic fluorescence spectroscopy detection for the determination of methyl mercury in filtered and unfiltered waters. This method is described in this report. Based on multiple analyses of surface water and ground-water samples, a method detection limit of 0.04 ng/L was established. Precision and accuracy were evaluated for the method using both spiked and unspiked ground-water and surface-water samples. The percent relative standard deviations ranged from 10.2 to 15.6 for all analyses at all concentrations. Average recoveries obtained for the spiked matrices ranged from 88.8 to 117 percent. The precision and accuracy ranges are within the acceptable method-performance limits. Considering the demonstrated detection limit, precision, and accuracy, the method is an effective means to quantify methyl mercury in waters at or below environmentally relevant concentrations

Open-File Report↗

Using analytical services at the National Water Quality Laboratory

The National Water Quality Laboratory (NWQL) offers a variety of analytical services for the determination of constituents in samples of water, sediment, and biological material. As technology has advanced, many new methods have been introduced but not always incorporated into plans and schedules developed in the districts. The strengths and weaknesses of many different techniques are discussed and evaluated to promote a broad understanding of the services available at the NWQL. Method detection limits, precision, and costs are discussed, as well as possible applications for the methods. To aid in project planning, several tables have been developed that list the approved method for certain determination, particularly those being requested to satisfy cooperator or U.S. Environ- mental Protection Agency regulatory requirements.

Open-File Report↗

Hydrologic data for the Columbia/Eagle Bluffs Wetland Complex, Columbia, Missouri-1993-96

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Conservation and the city of Columbia, Missouri, collected hydrologic data from September 1993 through October 1996 as part of a hydrologic characterization of the Columbia/Eagle Bluffs Wetland Complex. The wetland complex was constructed in the Missouri River alluvial plain adjacent to the Columbia municipal supply wells. Part of the wetland complex was designed to treat sewage effluent from Columbia, with the treated effluent being used as the primary water source for wetland management practices on the Eagle Bluffs Wildlife Area. This report presents hydrologic data and the procedures used to collect the data, which include water-quality analyses of samples collected quarterly from 28 wells and 2 surface-water sites. Four additional wells were incorporated into the monitoring network in November 1994 and also were sampled quarterly. Data from these 4 wells also are included. Water samples were analyzed for specific conductance, pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, bacteria, alkalinity, major cations and anions, nutrients, trace elements, and total and dissolved organic carbon. Dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations were equal to or less than 5.2 milligrams per liter for all ground-water samples and were equal to or less than 2.7 milligrams per liter in surface-water samples. Dissolved phosphorous concentrations ranged from less than 0.01 to 2.2 milligrams per liter in the ground-water samples, and from less than 0.01 to 0.19 milli-grams per liter in the surface-water samples. Fecal coliform bacteria counts ranged from less than 1 to 39 colonies per 100 milliliters for ground-water samples, and from 1 to greater than 6,000 colonies per 100 milliliters for surface-water samples. Fecal streptococcus bacteria counts ranged from less than 1 to 92 colonies per 100 milliliters for ground-water samples, and from 2 to greater than 10,000 colonies per 100 milliliters for surface-water samples. Samples for well USGS-6 had dissolved arsenic concentrations that exceeded 50 micrograms per liter. Dissolved manganese concentrations exceeded 50 micrograms per liter at least once for each site except for USGS-9S. Dissolved iron concentrations exceeded 300 micro-grams per liter at least once for 28 of 34 sites. Samples from 8 of the 32 wells and both surface-water sites were analyzed for base/neutral/ acid semi-volatile organic compounds, selected pesticides, selected organochlorine compounds, and purgeable volatile organic compounds. All but one of the organic compounds detected in the samples collected from the monitoring wells or surface-water sites were pesticides. Atrazine was detected consistently at both surface-water sites. Other frequently detected pesticides include metolachlor, diazinon, chlorpyrifos, prometon, and simazine. Following the 1993 Missouri River flood samples of residual flood water and flood-deposited sediments were collected from the Columbia/ Eagle Bluffs Wetland Complex. A brief description of the flooding and damage to the study area is presented. Methods of collection of the four residual flood water and the four flood-deposited sediment samples, as well as the analytical results of these samples, are included in this report. Data from two continuous water-level recorders and from quarterly water-level measurements in wells also are included.

Missouri↗

Models and methods to characterize site amplification from a pair of records

The paper presents a tutorial review of the models and methods that are used to characterize site amplification from the pairs of rock- and soil-site records, and introduces some new techniques with better theoretical foundations. The models and methods discussed include spectral and cross-spectral ratios, spectral ratios for downhole records, response spectral ratios, constant amplification factors, parametric models, physical models, and time-varying filters. An extensive analytical and numerical error analysis of spectral and cross-spectral ratios shows that probabilistically cross-spectral ratios give more reliable estimates of site amplification. Spectral ratios should not be used to determine site amplification from downhole-surface recording pairs because of the feedback in the downhole sensor. Response spectral ratios are appropriate for low frequencies, but overestimate the amplification at high frequencies. The best method to be used depends on how much precision is required in the estimates.

Earthquake Spectra↗

Management of ground water and evolving hydrogeologic studies in New Jersey : a heavily urbanized and industrialized state in the northeastern United States

New Jersey is the most densely populated and one of the most industrialized states in the United States. An abundance of freshwater and proximity to major northeastern metropolitan centers has facilitated this development. Pumpage of freshwater from all aquifers in the State in 1980 was 730 million gallons per day (2.76 million cubic meters per day). Management and efficient development of the ground-water resources of the State are the responsibility of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. Laws have been enacted and updated by the State legislature to manage water allocation and to control the disposal of hazardous wastes. Present resource management is guided by the New Jersey Water-Supply Master Plan of 1981. Funding for management activities is partially derived from the sale of state-approved bonds. Effective planning and regional management require accurate and up-to-date hydrologic information and analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Geological Survey, is conducting three intensive ground-water studies involving the collection and interpretation of hydrologic data to meet the urgent water-management needs of New Jersey. These studies are part of a long-term cooperative program and are funded through the Water-Supply Bond Act of 1981. They began in 1983 and are scheduled to be completed in 1988. The project areas are situated in the New Jersey part of the Atlantic Coastal Plain in and near Atlantic City, Camden, and South River. They range in size from 400 to 1,200 mil (1,040 to 3,120 km2). The studies are designed to define the geology, hydrology, and geochemistry of the local ground-water systems. The results of these studies will enable the State to address more effectively major problems in these areas such as declining water levels, overpumping, saltwater intrusion, and ground-water contamination resulting from the improper disposal of hazardous wastes. Specific objectives of these studies by the U.S. Geological Survey are to (1) develop an accurate and up-to-date hydrogeologic data base, (2) design and implement a data-collection program and establish a computerized information management system, (3) refine the conceptualization of the ground-water flow system, and (4) define the geochemistry of the aquifer system by conducting a water-quality appraisal. The objectives are accomplished by standard hydrogeologic methods. Information concerning hydrogeologic framework, ground-water levels, water use, hydraulic characteristics, and water quality in the study areas is compiled from all available sources. Additional data needed are collected through well inventories, surface geophysical surveys, water-quality samplings, water-level measurements, and a well-drilling program. Interpretation of the flow system is based on the use of standard analytical techniques and digital flow modeling. Calibrated flow models will provide ground-water managers with a mechanism to develop and test regional water-supply strategies. Definition of the geochemistry of the aquifer system is accomplished through a variety of methods which depend on the problems and available data in the particular study area. The approach includes statistical analysis of water-quality data, reaction-path modeling, and determination of the movement of chemical constituents using analytical and numerical modeling techniques. A combined staff of 25 to 30 professionals and technicians from the New Jersey District office of the U.S. Geological Survey is committed to the three studies. The staff has specialists in geohydrology, numerical modeling, geochemistry, geophysics, and computer science. The findings of these studies will be published in data reports, interpretive reports, instructional manuals and journal articles.

New Jersey↗

Baseline models of trace elements in major aquifers of the United States

Trace-element concentrations in baseline samples from a survey of aquifers used as potable-water supplies in the United States are summarized using methods appropriate for data with multiple detection limits. The resulting statistical distribution models are used to develop summary statistics and estimate probabilities of exceeding water-quality standards. The models are based on data from the major aquifer studies of the USGS National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. These data were produced with a nationally-consistent sampling and analytical framework specifically designed to determine the quality of the most important potable groundwater resources during the years 1991-2001. The analytical data for all elements surveyed contain values that were below several detection limits. Such datasets are referred to as multiply-censored data. To address this issue, a robust semi-parametric statistical method called regression on order statistics (ROS) is employed. Utilizing the 90th-95th percentile as an arbitrary range for the upper limits of expected baseline concentrations, the models show that baseline concentrations of dissolved Ba and Zn are below 500 ??g/L. For the same percentile range, dissolved As, Cu and Mo concentrations are below 10 ??g/L, and dissolved Ag, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Ni, Pb, Sb and Se are below 1-5 ??g/L. These models are also used to determine the probabilities that potable ground waters exceed drinking water standards. For dissolved Ba, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni, Mo and Se, the likelihood of exceeding the US Environmental Protection Agency standards at the well-head is less than 1-1.5%. A notable exception is As, which has approximately a 7% chance of exceeding the maximum contaminant level (10 ??g/L) at the well head.

Applied Geochemistry↗

Developing analytical approaches to explore the connection between endocrine-active pharmaceuticals in water to effects in fish

The emphasis of this research project was to develop and optimize a solid-phase extraction method and highperformance liquid chromatography-electrospray ionizationmass spectrometry method, such that a linkage between the detection of endocrine-active pharmaceuticals (EAPs) in the aquatic environment and subsequent effects on fish populations could eventually be studied. Four EAPs were studied: tamoxifen (TAM), exemestane (EXE), letrozole (LET), anastrozole (ANA); and three TAM metabolites: 4- hydroxytamoxifen, e/z endoxifen, and n-desmethyl tamoxifen. In aqueous matrices, the use of isotopically labeled standards for the EAPs allowed for the generation of good recoveries, greater than 80 %, and low relative standard deviations (% RSDs) (3 to 27 %). TAM metabolites had lower recoveries in the spiked water matrices: 35 to 93 % in waste/source water compared to 58 to 110 % in DI water. The precision in DI water was acceptable ranging from 8 to 38 % RSD. However, the precision in real environmental wastewaters could be poor, ranging from 15 to 120 % RSD, dependent upon unique matrix effects. In plasma, the overall recoveries of the EAPs were acceptable: 88 to 110 %, with %RSDs of 6 to 18 % (Table 3). The spiked recoveries of the TAM metabolites from plasma were good, ranging from 77 to 120 %, with %RSDs ranging from 27 to 32 %. Two of the TAM metabolites, 4- hydroxytamoxifen and n-desmethyl tamoxifen, were confirmed in most of the environmental aqueous samples. The discovery of TAM metabolites demonstrates that the source of the TAM metabolites, TAM, is constant, introducing a pseudo-persistence of this chemical into the environment.

Analytical and Bioanalytical Chemistry↗

Measurement of the bed material of gravel-bed rivers

The measurement of the physical properties of a gravel-bed river is important in the calculation of sediment transport and physical habitat values for aquatic animals. These properties are not always easy to measure. One recent report on flushing of fines from the Klamath River did not contain information on one location because the grain size distribution of the armour could not be measured on a dry river bar. The grain size distribution could have been measured using a barrel sampler and converting the measurements to the same as would have been measured if a dry bar existed at the site. In another recent paper the porosity was calculated from an average value relation from the literature. The results of that paper may be sensitive to the actual value of porosity. Using the bulk density sampling technique based on a water displacement process presented in this paper the porosity could have been calculated from the measured bulk density. The principle topics of this paper are the measurement of the size distribution of the armour, and measurement of the porosity of the substrate. The 'standard' method of sampling of the armour is to do a Wolman-type count of the armour on a dry section of the river bed. When a dry bar does not exist the armour in an area of the wet streambed is to sample and the measurements transformed analytically to the same type of results that would have been obtained from the standard Wolman procedure. A comparison of the results for the San Miguel River in Colorado shows significant differences in the median size of the armour. The method use to determine the porosity is not 'high-tech' and there is a need improve knowledge of the porosity because of the importance of porosity in the aquatic ecosystem. The technique is to measure the in-situ volume of a substrate sample by measuring the volume of a frame over the substrate and then repeated the volume measurement after the sample is obtained from within the frame. The difference in the volumes is the volume of the sample.

Conference Paper↗

Detection limits of quantitative and digital PCR assays and their influence in presence-absence surveys of environmental DNA

A set of universal guidelines is needed to determine the limit of detection (LOD) in PCR-based analyses of low concentration DNA. In particular, environmental DNA (eDNA) studies require sensitive and reliable methods to detect rare and cryptic species through shed genetic material in environmental samples. Current strategies for assessing detection limits of eDNA are either too stringent or subjective, possibly resulting in biased estimates of species’ presence. Here, a conservative LOD analysis grounded in analytical chemistry is proposed to correct for overestimated DNA concentrations predominantly caused by the concentration plateau, a nonlinear relationship between expected and measured DNA concentrations. We have used statistical criteria to establish formal mathematical models for both quantitative and droplet digital PCR. To assess the method, a new Grass Carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) TaqMan assay was developed and tested on both PCR platforms using eDNA in water samples. The LOD adjustment reduced Grass Carp occupancy and detection estimates while increasing uncertainty – indicating that caution needs to be applied to eDNA data without LOD correction. Compared to quantitative PCR, digital PCR had higher occurrence estimates due to increased sensitivity and dilution of inhibitors at low concentrations. Without accurate LOD correction, species occurrence and detection probabilities based on eDNA estimates are prone to a source of bias that cannot be reduced by an increase in sample size or PCR replicates. Other applications also could benefit from a standardized LOD such as GMO food analysis, and forensic and clinical diagnostics.

Molecular Ecology Resources↗

A wetting and drying scheme for ROMS

The processes of wetting and drying have many important physical and biological impacts on shallow water systems. Inundation and dewatering effects on coastal mud flats and beaches occur on various time scales ranging from storm surge, periodic rise and fall of the tide, to infragravity wave motions. To correctly simulate these physical processes with a numerical model requires the capability of the computational cells to become inundated and dewatered. In this paper, we describe a method for wetting and drying based on an approach consistent with a cell-face blocking algorithm. The method allows water to always flow into any cell, but prevents outflow from a cell when the total depth in that cell is less than a user defined critical value. We describe the method, the implementation into the three-dimensional Regional Oceanographic Modeling System (ROMS), and exhibit the new capability under three scenarios: an analytical expression for shallow water flows, a dam break test case, and a realistic application to part of a wetland area along the Georgia Coast, USA.

Georgia↗