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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 865 records · Page 48Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Resolving small-scale forest snow patterns using an energy-balance snow model with a 1-layer canopy

Modelling spatiotemporal dynamics of snow in forests is challenging, as involved processes are strongly dependent on small-scale canopy properties. In this study, we explore how local canopy structure information can be integrated in a medium-complexity energy-balance snow model to replicate observed snow patterns at very high spatial resolutions. Snow depth distributions simulated with the Flexible Snow Model (FSM2) were tested against extensive experimental data acquired in discontinuous subalpine forest stands in Eastern Switzerland over three winters. While the default canopy implementation in FSM2 fails to capture the observed snow depth variability, performance is considerably improved when local canopy cover fraction and hemispherical sky view fraction are additionally accounted for (30% reduction in RMSE). However, realistic snow depth distribution patterns throughout the season are only achieved if effective temperatures of near and distant canopy elements are discerned, and if a mechanism to mimic preferential deposition of snow in canopy gaps is included. We demonstrate that by diversifying the canopy structure input in order to reflect respective portions of the canopy relevant to different processes, even a simple model based on widely used process parametrizations and canopy metrics can be applied for high-resolution simulations of the sub-canopy snow cover with just a few modifications. The presented approaches could be implemented in commonly used land surface models, allowing upscaling experiments and development of sub-grid parametrizations without necessitating complex high-resolution models.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2020

The future of sediment transport and streamflow under a changing climate and the implications for long-term resilience of the San Francisco Bay-Delta

Sedimentation and turbidity have effects on habitat suitability in the San Francisco Bay‐Delta (Bay‐Delta), concerning key species in the bay as well as the ability of the delta marshes to keep pace with sea level rise. A daily rainfall runoff and transport model of the Sacramento River Basin of northern California was developed to simulate streamflow and suspended sediment transport to the Bay‐Delta for the next century (water years, WY2010–2099). The model was calibrated to historical streamflow and sediment data and applied using 10 Global Climate Models with two representative concentration pathways (RCP) each for WY1980–2099 from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. Results indicate average increases in peak streamflow of +58% and +66% for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 ensembles, respectively, by mid‐century and +62 and +96% by end‐of‐century. Sediment loads increased by +39% and +69% by end‐of‐century. Suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) increased on average by +4.6% and +6.7% for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, by end‐of‐century. Individual scenario results varied, and statistically significant increasing trends of sediment loads to the Bay‐Delta were found for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 ensembles and five individual scenarios. Increased suspended sediment loads may have negative effects such as contaminant transport but also have positive effects that help protect against sea level rise, increase turbidity and fish habitat, and sustain wetland habitats in the Bay‐Delta.

California↗
USGS2020

Probabilistic categorical groundwater salinity mapping from airborne electromagnetic data adjacent to California’s Lost Hills and Belridge oil fields

Growing water stress has led to emerging interest in protecting fresh and brackish groundwater as a potential supplement to water supplies and raised questions about factors that could affect the future quality of fresh and brackish aquifers. Limited well infrastructure, particularly in regions where elevated salinity has led to limited historical groundwater development, hinders traditional mapping of salinity distributions through groundwater sampling. This paper presents a quantitative salinity mapping approach of the upper 300 m using high‐resolution, regionally comprehensive resistivity models derived from Bayesian inversion of an airborne electromagnetic survey adjacent to the Lost Hills and Belridge oil fields in the southwestern San Joaquin Valley of California. Using local water quality observations as an interpretational foundation, a probabilistic approach yields maps of fresh, saline, and brackish groundwater while quantifying joint uncertainty inherited from the geophysical data and interpretational relations. Saline and fresh regions are mapped with relatively high confidence in many locations, while areas of lower confidence, particularly at depth, can be mapped as their most probable salinity category while reflecting the relative uncertainty in the interpretation. These maps identify a stratified salinity structure, where saline water commonly occurs in the surficial aquifer overlying fresher groundwater in the Tulare aquifer, separated by regional confining clay layers. Downgradient of unlined surface water diversions, recharge of imported surface water results in relatively fresh groundwater throughout the depth of investigation.

California↗
USGS2021

Signatures of hydrologic function across the critical zone observatory network

Despite a multitude of small catchment studies, we lack a deep understanding of how variations in critical zone architecture lead to variations in hydrologic states and fluxes. This study characterizes hydrologic dynamics of 15 catchments of the U.S. Critical Zone Observatory (CZO) network where we hypothesized that our understanding of subsurface structure would illuminate patterns of hydrologic partitioning. The CZOs collect data sets that characterize the physical, chemical, and biological architecture of the subsurface, while also monitoring hydrologic fluxes such as streamflow, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. For the first time, we collate time series of hydrologic variables across the CZO network and begin the process of examining hydrologic signatures across sites. We find that catchments with low baseflow indices and high runoff sensitivity to storage receive most of their precipitation as rain and contain clay‐rich regolith profiles, prominent argillic horizons, and/or anthropogenic modifications. In contrast, sites with high baseflow indices and low runoff sensitivity to storage receive the majority of precipitation as snow and have more permeable regolith profiles. The seasonal variability of water balance components is a key control on the dynamic range of hydraulically connected water in the critical zone. These findings lead us to posit that water balance partitioning and streamflow hydraulics are linked through the coevolution of critical zone architecture but that much work remains to parse these controls out quantitatively.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2020

Land use effects on sediment nutrient processes in a heavily modified watershed using structural equation models

Contemporary land use can affect sediment nutrient processes in rivers draining heavily modified watersheds; however, studies linking land use to sediment nutrient processes in large river networks are limited. In this study, we developed and evaluated structural equation models (SE models) for denitrification and phosphorus retention capacity to determine direct and indirect linkages between current land use and sediment nutrient processes during baseflow in the Fox River watershed, Wisconsin USA. A large spatial-scale dataset used for this study included sediment nitrogen and phosphorus retention measurements and land use information for 106 sites. The SE models for the Fox River watershed identified direct links between current land use and in-stream sediment nutrient processes. Sub-watersheds with agricultural land consisting of more natural land cover had lower surface water nitrate concentrations and higher denitrification enzyme activity than sub-watersheds with less alternative cover. This suggests that best management practices implemented in the Fox River watershed that restore natural land cover can improve water quality through nitrogen removal on the agricultural landscape and in the river network. Best management practices are not having the same measurable affect on phosphorus in the river network, most likely due to legacy phosphorus stored in the sediment.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2020

Calibrated simulation of the long-term average surficial groundwater system and derived spatial distributions of its characteristics for the contiguous United States

While the physical processes governing groundwater flow are well understood, and the computational resources now exist for solving the governing equations in three dimensions over continental-scale domains, there remains substantial uncertainty about the subsurface distribution of the properties that control groundwater flow and transport for much of the contiguous United States (CONUS). The transmissivity of the shallow subsurface is a key parameter for the simulation of water table position, shallow groundwater flow, and base-flow discharge, but is not well-characterized at large regional to continental scales. We used a process-based inversion of CONUS-extent groundwater information to generate national data sets of (a) the transmissivity of the shallow groundwater system, (b) the depth to the water table, (c) groundwater discharge as base-flow, and (d) long-term average water content in the unsaturated zone. CONUS-extent coverage was developed in the form of 75 subdomain models, with the spatial distribution of long-term average transmissivity for each subdomain model calibrated against water-levels derived from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) observation wells, NHDPlusV2 first-order perennial streams, and National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) freshwater wetlands. Estimated transmissivities were lower in the western CONUS than the eastern CONUS, and across the CONUS both transmissivity and depth to water correlate with recharge, elevation, and topographic slope. These generated data sets provide spatially distributed, long-term average estimates of subsurface properties and hydrological states that we anticipate will complement other environmental modeling efforts as explanatory variables, boundary conditions, or transport pathways.

contiguous United States↗
USGS2020

A one‐dimensional model for turbulent mixing in the benthic biolayer of stream and coastal sediments

In this paper, we develop and validate a rigorous modeling framework, based on Duhamel's Theorem, for the unsteady one-dimensional vertical transport of a solute across a flat sediment-water interface (SWI) and through the benthic biolayer of a turbulent stream. The modeling framework is novel in capturing the two-way coupling between evolving solute concentrations above and below the SWI and in allowing for a depth-varying diffusivity. Three diffusivity profiles within the sediment (constant, exponentially decaying, and a hybrid model) are evaluated against an extensive set of previously published laboratory measurements of turbulent mass transfer across the SWI. The exponential diffusivity profile best represents experimental observations and its reference diffusivity scales with the permeability Reynolds number, a dimensionless measure of turbulence at the SWI. The depth over which turbulence-enhanced diffusivity decays is of the order of centimeters and comparable to the thickness of the benthic biolayer. Thus, turbulent mixing across the SWI may serve as a universal transport mechanism, supplying the nutrient and energy fluxes needed to sustain microbial growth, and nutrient processing, in the benthic biolayer of stream and coastal sediments.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2021

Effective hydrological events in an evolving mid‐latitude mountain river system following cataclysmic disturbance—A saga of multiple influences

Cataclysmic eruption of Mount St. Helens (USA) in 1980 reset 30 km of upper North Fork Toutle River (NFTR) valley to a zero‐state fluvial condition. Consequently, a new channel system evolved. Initially, a range of streamflows eroded channels (tens of meters incision, hundreds of meters widening) and transported immense sediment loads. Now, single, large‐magnitude or multiple moderate‐magnitude events are needed to accomplish substantial channel modification. Three large floods (two ≥100‐year events; one ∼10–25‐year event along lower Toutle River) from 1996 to 2015 indicate flood effectiveness in this environment is affected by both geomorphic and environmental factors. The largest and smallest of these floods (February 1996, November 2006) transported the most sediment by single floods since 1982; erosion and sediment transport by an ∼100‐year flood in December 2015 was not exceptional. Strong coupling between NFTR and its tall corridor banks, local geologic and hydraulic conditions promoting threshold erosion, event sequencing, and possibly a longitudinal gradient in stream power are important factors affecting event effectiveness on channel modification. In addition, environmental factors have also been influential, as variations in snowpack, storm trajectories and rainfall distributions, and episodic mobilization of debris flows have also influenced geomorphic response. Other factors such as vegetation anchoring, strong channel–hillside coupling, disparities between flood frequencies and perturbation relaxation times, and large variations in flood duration do not appear to be critical influences. Climate forecasts for warmer temperatures and a shift from snowfall to rainfall at high elevations may promote further acute geomorphic responses.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2020

Nitrate in streams during winter low‐flow conditions as an indicator of legacy nitrate

Winter low‐flow (LF) conditions in streams provide a potential opportunity to evaluate the importance of legacy nitrate in catchments due to the dominance of slow‐flow transport pathways and lowered biotic activity. In this study, the concentration, flux, and trend of nitrate in streams during winter low‐flow conditions were analyzed at 320 sites in the conterminous United States. LF flow‐normalized nitrate concentrations varied from <0.1 to >20 mg‐N L ‐1 and LF conditions contributed between 2% and 98% of the winter nitrate flux. LF nitrate concentrations generally exceeded 2.5 mg‐N L ‐1 in the upper Midwest, with smaller regions of high LF nitrate concentrations in eastern Texas and along the northern mid‐Atlantic coast. Groundwater was inferred to be the primary or sole contributor of nitrate to streams during winter LF conditions at 140 of our 320 sites. Among these 140 sites, nitrate from groundwater comprised 45% or more of the winter nitrate flux at a quarter of the sites. Among the same 140 sites, concentrations of nitrate in streams during winter LF conditions generally increased between 2002 and 2012 at sites where 40% or more of the winter flux was from groundwater, suggesting that concentrations of nitrate in the contributing groundwater system were increasing. Using metrics developed herein, we characterize the potential importance of legacy nitrate at sites in this study and discuss methods to characterize sites with fewer samples than required by our models or at sites without continuous stream discharge measurements.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2020

Hydrologic signals and surprises in U.S. streamflow records during urbanization

Urban development has been observed to lead to variable magnitudes of change for stormflow volume and directions of baseflow change across cities. This work examines temporal streamflow trends across the flow duration curve in 53 watersheds during periods of peak urban development, which ranged from 1939 to 2016. We used U.S. Geological Survey streamgage records combined with pre‐development and urbanization characteristics to identify 20 years for analysis in each urbanizing watershed. Each urbanizing gage was paired with a nearby reference gage representing climatic trends over the same time period. Results indicated that urbanization, as measured by housing density, did not homogeneously alter the flow duration curve. Urbanization led to widely variable trends in low flow, where half of the urbanizing gages had increasing flow at the 10th non‐exceedance percentile, and the other half had declining low flow. High flows generally increased in streams as the area urbanized. The largest increases in high flows were in streams in semi‐arid and arid areas. The largest urban flow changes had transformations in wastewater infrastructure, water supply infrastructure, and flood control facilities. Isolating flow changes due to urbanization from those of reference sites will serve to better identify and manage synergistic effects of urban development and climate change on flooding and water availability.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2020

Estimating the effects of forest structure changes from wildfire on snow water resources under varying meteorological conditions

Modeling forest change effects on snow is critical to resource management. However, many models either do not appropriately model canopy structure or cannot represent fine‐scale changes in structure following a disturbance. We applied a 1 m 2 resolution energy budget snowpack model at a forested site in New Mexico, USA, affected by a wildfire, using input data from lidar to represent prefire and postfire canopy conditions. Both scenarios were forced with 37 years of equivalent meteorology to simulate the effect of fire‐mediated canopy change on snowpack under varying meteorology. Postfire, the simulated snow distribution was substantially altered, and despite an overall increase in snow, 32% of the field area displayed significant decreases, resulting in higher snowpack variability. The spatial differences in snow were correlated with the change in several direction‐based forest structure metrics (aspect‐based canopy edginess and gap area). Locations with decreases in snow following the fire were on southern aspects that transitioned to south facing canopy edges, canopy gaps that increased in size to the south, or where large trees were removed. Locations with largest increases in snow occurred where all canopy was removed. Changes in canopy density metrics, typically used in snow models to represent the forest, did not fully explain the effects of fire on snow distribution. This explains why many models are not able to represent greater postfire variability in snow distribution and tend to predict only increases in snowpack following a canopy disturbance event despite observational studies showing both increases and decreases.

New Mexico↗
USGS2021

Numerical analysis of the effect of subgrid variability in a physically based hydrological model on runoff, soil moisture, and slope stability

In coarse resolution hydrological modeling we face the problem of subgrid variability, the effects of which are difficult to express and are often hidden in the parameterization and calibration. We present a numerical experiment with the physically based hydrological model ParFlow‐CLM with which we quantify the effect of subgrid heterogeneities in headwater catchments within the cell size typically used for regional hydrological applications. We simulate homogeneous domains and domains with subgrid heterogeneities in topography or soil thickness for two climates and soil types. The presence of side slope is the main error source, leading to large underestimation of runoff, and marginally also of evapotranspiration. The spatial distribution of soil saturation in the presence of subgrid variability in topography also leads to underestimation of landslide risk. Soil thickness is the second influential subgrid property, affecting soil moisture distribution and surface runoff formation. Results are consistent for the climates and the soil types considered. The topographic wetness index approach is tested as a way to downscale soil moisture simulations within the domain. Although this method is successful in reproducing some spatial variability and patterns, it fails when the coarse grid mean soil saturation is inaccurate or subgrid topography does not represent subsurface flow paths accurately. We conclude that ignoring subgrid variability in topography and soil thickness in coarse‐scale hydrological models may lead locally to underestimation of runoff and slope instability. Users of such models should be aware of these biases and consider ways to include subgrid effects in coarse‐scale hydrological predictions.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2021

Three-dimensional distribution of residence time metrics in the glaciated United States using metamodels trained on general numerical models

Residence time distribution (RTD) is a critically important characteristic of groundwater flow systems; however, it cannot be measured directly. RTD can be inferred from tracer data with analytical models (few parameters) or with numerical models (many parameters). The second approach permits more variation in system properties but is used less frequently than the first because large‐scale numerical models can be resource intensive. Using a novel automated approach, a set of 115 inexpensive general simulation models (GSMs) was used to create RTD metrics (fraction of young groundwater, defined as < 65 years old; mean travel time of young fraction; median travel time of old fraction; and mean path length). GSMs captured the general trends in measured tritium concentrations in 431 wells. Boosted Regression Tree metamodels were trained to predict these RTD metrics using available wall‐to‐wall hydrogeographic digital sets as explanatory features. The metamodels produced a three‐dimensional distribution of predictions throughout the glacial system that generally matched with the numerical model RTD metrics. In addition to the expected importance of aquifer thickness and recharge rate in predicting RTD metrics, two new data sets, Multi‐Order Hydrologic Position (MOHP) and hydrogeologic terrane were important predictors. These variables by themselves produced metamodels with Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency close to the full metamodel. Metamodel predictions showed that the volume of young groundwater stored in the glaciated U.S. is about 6,000 km 3 , or about 0.5% of globally stored young groundwater.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2021

Permafrost promotes shallow groundwater flow and warmer headwater streams

The presence of permafrost influences the flow paths of water through Arctic landscapes and thereby has the potential to impact stream discharge and thermal regimes. Observations from eleven headwater streams in Alaska showed that July water temperatures were higher in catchments with more near‐surface permafrost. We apply a fully coupled cryohydrology model to investigate if the impact of permafrost on flow path depth could cause the same pattern in temperatures of groundwater discharging from hillslopes to streams. The model simulates surface energy and water balances, snow, and subsurface water and energy balances for two‐dimensional hillslope model cases with varying permafrost extent. We find that hillslopes with continuous permafrost have more shallow flow paths and twice as high rates of evapotranspiration, compared to hillslopes with no permafrost. For our simulated cases, 6.7 % of the horizontal water flux moves through the top organic soil layers when there is continuous permafrost, while only 0.5 % moves through organic layers without permafrost. The deeper flow paths in permafrost‐free simulations buffer seasonal temperature extremes, so that summer groundwater discharge temperatures are highest with continuous permafrost. Our results suggest that permafrost thawing alters groundwater flow paths and can lead to decreases in summer stream temperatures and reductions in evapotranspiration in headwater catchments. These changes are of potential importance for stream biotic components of ecosystems, however, the full impact remains unknown.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Comparison of groundwater storage changes from GRACE satellites with monitoring and modeling of major U.S. aquifers

GRACE satellite data are widely used to estimate groundwater storage (GWS) changes in aquifers globally; however, comparisons with GW monitoring and modeling data are limited. Here we compared GWS changes from GRACE over 15 yr (2002–2017) in 14 major U.S. aquifers with groundwater-level (GWL) monitoring data in ~23,000 wells and with regional and global hydrologic and land surface models. Results show declining GWS trends from GRACE data in the six southwestern and south-central U.S. aquifers, totaling −90 km 3 over 15 yr, related to long-term (5–15 yr) droughts, and exceeding Lake Mead volume by ~2.5×. GWS trends in most remaining aquifers were stable or slightly rising. GRACE-derived GWS changes agree with GWL monitoring data in most aquifers (correlation coefficients, R = 0.52–0.95), showing that GRACE satellites capture groundwater (GW) dynamics. Regional GW models (eight models) generally show similar or greater GWS trends than those from GRACE. Large discrepancies in the Mississippi Embayment aquifer, with modeled GWS decline approximately four times that of GRACE, may reflect uncertainties in model storage parameters, stream capture, pumpage, and/or recharge rates. Global hydrologic models (2003–2014), which include GW pumping, generally overestimate GRACE GWS depletion (total: approximately −172 to −186 km 3 ) in heavily exploited aquifers in southwestern and south-central U.S. by ~2.4× (GRACE: −74 km 3 ), underscoring needed modeling improvements relative to anthropogenic impacts. Global land surface models tend to track GRACE GWS dynamics better than global hydrologic models. Intercomparing remote sensing, monitoring, and modeling data underscores the importance of considering all data sources to constrain GWS uncertainties.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2020

Water temperature controls for regulated canyon-bound rivers

Many canyon‐bound rivers have been dammed and downstream flow and water temperatures modified. Climate change is expected to cause lower storage in reservoirs and warmer release temperatures, which may further alter downstream flow and thermal regimes. To anticipate potential future changes, we first need to understand the dominant heat transfer mechanisms in canyon‐bound river systems. Towards this end, we adapt a dynamic process‐based river routing and temperature model to account for complex shading and radiation characteristics found in canyon‐bound rivers. We apply the model to a 362 km segment of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park, USA to simulate temperature over an 18‐year period. Extensive temperature and flow datasets from within the canyon were used to assess model performance. At the most downstream gaging location, root mean square errors of hourly flow routing and temperature predictions were 11.5 m 3 /s and 0.93 °C, respectively. We found that heat fluxes controlling temperatures were highly variable over space and time, primarily due to shortwave radiation dynamics and hydropeaking flow conditions. Additionally, the large differences between air and water temperature during summer periods resulted in high sensible and latent heat fluxes. Sensitivity analyses indicate that reservoir release temperatures are most influential above the RM88 gage (141 kilometers below Glen Canyon Dam), while a combination of discharge, shortwave radiation, and air temperature become more important farther downstream. This study illustrates the importance of understanding the spatial and temporal variability of topographic shading when predicting water temperatures in canyon‐bound rivers.

Colorado↗
USGS2021

Spatio-temporal analysis of hypoxia in the Central Basin of Lake Erie of North America

We develop a spatio-temporal geostatistical interpolation framework to estimate hypoxia extent (dissolved oxygen [DO] concentrations below 2 mg/L) with data from a network of DO loggers. The framework uses empirical orthogonal functions and Bayesian kriging to identify the spatially varying temporal pattern and estimate the distribution of hypoxia, including estimation uncertainty. A prototype web application is also developed in R. The framework is applied to analyze spatio-temporal dynamics of DO in the central basin of Lake Erie in North America using data sampled from a logger network placed on the lake bottom during the summers of 2014, 2015, and 2016. Cross-validation results demonstrate that the framework is capable of capturing the dynamic nature of bottom hypoxia over offshore areas, but nearshore areas have poor interpolation performance due to the impacts of complex physical processes such as seiche events. The findings showed that in the central basin, hypoxia started to emerge in early August of 2014, while in 2015 and 2016 hypoxia began in July. The peak hypoxia extent occurred in late September 2014, mid-August 2015, and early September 2016. The prediction error of the overall spatial extent of hypoxia was as large as 25% of the interpolation area based on current logger deployment. Based on the cross-validation and interpolation error, we suggest placing more loggers in nearshore areas to reduce prediction error near the margins of the hypoxic zone.

central Lake Erie↗
USGS2021

Using heat to trace vertical water fluxes in sediment experiencing concurrent tidal pumping and groundwater discharge

Heat has been widely applied to trace groundwater‐surface water exchanges in inland environments, but it is infrequently applied in coastal sediment where head oscillations induce periodicity in water flux magnitude/direction and heat advection. This complicates interpretation of temperatures to estimate water fluxes. We investigate the convolution of thermal and hydraulic signals to assess the viability of using heat as a tracer in environments with tidal head oscillations superimposed on submarine groundwater discharge. We first generate sediment temperature and head time series for conditions ranging from no tide to mega‐tidal using a numerical model (SUTRA) forced with periodic temperature and tidal head signals. We then analyze these synthetic temperature time series using heat tracing software (VFLUX2 and 1DTempPro) to evaluate if conventional terrestrial approaches to infer fluxes from temperatures are applicable for coastal settings. We consider high‐frequency water flux variability within a tidal signal and averaged over tidal signals. Results show that VFLUX2 analytical methods reasonably estimated the mean discharge fluxes in most cases but could not reproduce the flux variability within tidal cycles. The model results further reveal that high‐frequency time series of water fluxes varying in magnitude and direction can be accurately estimated if paired temperature and hydraulic head are analyzed using numerical models (e.g. 1DTempPro) that consider both dynamic hydraulic gradients and thermal signals. These results point to the opportunity to incorporate pressure sensors within heat tracing instrumentation to better assess sub‐daily flux oscillations and associated reactive processes.

Water Resources Research↗