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Water resources activities of the USGS, 1987

Effective management of water resources requires an understanding of hydrologic systems and the factors that determine the distribution, availability, and quality of water. Within the Federal Government, the U.S. Geological Survey has the principal responsibility for providing hydrologic information and for appraising the Nation's water resources. The water resources activities of the U.S. Geological Survey are diverse, ranging from research investigations of specific aspects of the hydrologic cycle to large programs of regional water-resources investigations, such as the Regional Aquifer System Analyses. This report describes the U.S. Geological Survey's water resources activities. Some activities, such as the acid rain program, are mandated by line items in the Survey's fiscal year 1987 budget. Others, such as floods, sediment, and snow and ice, are topics of general interest to the water resources community. Still others are related to current water issues, such as nonpoint sources of pollution, the irrigation drainage problem of the western San Joaquin Valley, and national ground-water protection. In many cases, there is considerable overlap in the topical descrip-tions. The Survey's water resources research program, for example, conducts investigations that are applicable to virtually all of the activities listed in this book. Similarly, projects in the Federal-State Cooperative Program cover multiple aspects of water resources. For these reasons, the sums associated with funding for each of the activities listed exceeds by a considerable amount the Survey's budget for water resources activities. The report first describes the water-resources mission of the U.S. Geological Survey and discusses the principal sources of funds that support the activities. The remainder of the report consists of descriptions of 39 of the most significant water resources activities. An index appears at the end of the report. Each description of a significant water activity has the following parts: Introduction--the problem or issue addressed by the activity and a statement of purpose. Activities--examples of investigations underway. Recent accomplishments--examples of findings or achievements. Funding--an indication of the size of the program in terms of funding. Where possible, the funding of activities is given by source for fiscal years 1983 to 1987.

Open-File Report↗

Controlling the spread of invasive species while sampling

Invasive species have a substantial impact on natural resource management. The economic cost of invasive species to people in the United States is an estimated US$137 billion annually (Pimental et al. 2000). The environmental cost is much greater and usually incalculable (Pimental et al. 2005). Nearly half of the plant and animal species federally listed in the United States' Endangered Species Act are threatened or endangered primarily as a consequence of invasive species that directly prey on native species or outcompete them for limited resources (Wilcove et al. 1998; Pimental et al. 2005) The result is reduced population numbers and, sometimes, local extinction of native plants and animals (Pimental at al. 2005). Such environmental damage is often irreparable. As natural resource managers, it is our responsibility to manage and conserve valuable natural resources. However, if our focus is limited to specific projects and tasks at hand, we may overlook the broader ramifications of our actions and unintentionally contribute to the invasive species problem. This chapter focuses on measures that should be taken to present, minimize, or control the spread of invasive species in the routine work we do as natural resource professionals. Inadvertently transporting potentially harmful organisms undermines our purposed as natural resource professionals. It is imperative that we understand that pathways that we create and strive to eliminate (when possible) or minimize the potential damage that may result from our actions. A combination of technologies, education, codes of conduct, and government overshot, as recommended by the Ecological Society of America, can prevent invasive species introductions from pathways that already exist (Lodge et al. 2006). In the long run, a purposeful prevention strategy for stopping unintentional species introductions will promote responsible natural resource management and will help us to achieve agency goals.

Book chapter↗

Implementation strategy for production of National Land-Cover Data (NLCD) from the Landsat 7 Thematic Mapper satellite

As environmental programs within and outside the federal government continue to move away from point-based studies to larger and larger spatial (not cartographic) scale, the need for land-cover and other geographic data have become ineluctable. The national land-cover mapping project of MRLC marks the first consistently classified conterminous land-cover data set, effectively replacing USGS' Land Use Data Analysis (LUDA) system derived from high altitidue aerial photography acquired in the early 1970's. Because of the continually changing nature of the earth's surface due to anthropogenic activities and other factors, a single point-in-time land-cover product is insufficient for many applications. Production of a second point-in-time land-cover product is proposed as a database. That proposed database design includes: (1) second, independently classified land-cover data set derived from Landsat 7 Thematic Mapper data; (2) the land-cover product being produced under the current effort, (3) selected spectral-based change estimates (e.g., temporal NDVI), (4) thirty-meter DEMS; and (5) selected landscape metrics. Development of the database for the conterminous United States will start after evaluation of the prototype.

Technical Report↗

Assessing vulnerability and threat from housing development to Conservation Opportunity Areas in State Wildlife Action Plans across the United States

Targeting conservation actions efficiently requires information on vulnerability of and threats to conservation targets, but such information is rarely included in conservation plans. In the U.S., recently updated State Wildlife Action Plans identify Conservation Opportunity Areas (COAs) selected by each state as priority areas for future action to conserve wildlife and habitats. The question is how threatened these COAs are by habitat loss and degradation, major threats to wildlife in the U.S. that are often caused by housing development. We compiled spatial data on COAs across the conterminous U.S. We estimated COA vulnerability using current land protection status and COA threat using projected housing growth derived from U.S. census data. COAs comprise 1–46% of each region. Across regions, 28–82% of the area within COAs is vulnerable to future housing development, and 5–55% and 7–23% of that vulnerable COA area is threatened by projected dense housing and rapid housing growth, respectively. COA vulnerability is greatest in the East. Threat from dense housing and rapid housing growth is highest in the Northeast and Pacific Southwest, respectively. Results highlight that many areas identified as important for reducing wildlife listings under the U.S. Endangered Species Act may need further protection to fulfill their conservation goals because they are both vulnerable to and threatened by future housing development. Our analyses can help practitioners target local government outreach, land protection efforts, and landscape-scale mitigation programs to decrease future COA loss from housing development, and could be expanded to address additional COA threats (e.g., wildfire, invasive species).

Landscape and Urban Planning↗

Assessing contaminants of emerging concern in the Great Lakes Ecosystem: A decade of method development and practical application

Assessing the ecological risk of contaminants in the field typically involves consideration of a complex mixture of compounds which may or may not be detected via instrumental analyses. Further, there are insufficient data to predict the potential biological effects of many detected compounds, leading to their being characterized as contaminants of emerging concern (CECs). Over the past several years, advances in chemistry, toxicology, and bioinformatics have resulted in a variety of concepts and tools that can enhance the pragmatic assessment of the ecological risk of CECs. The present Focus article describes a 10+- year multiagency effort supported through the U.S. Great Lakes Restoration Initiative to assess the occurrence and implications of CECs in the North American Great Lakes. State-of-the-science methods and models were used to evaluate more than 700 sites in about approximately 200 tributaries across lakes Ontario, Erie, Huron, Michigan, and Superior, sometimes on multiple occasions. Studies featured measurement of up to 500 different target analytes in different environmental matrices, coupled with evaluation of biological effects in resident species, animals from in situ and laboratory exposures, and in vitro systems. Experimental taxa included birds, fish, and a variety of invertebrates, and measured endpoints ranged from molecular to apical responses. Data were integrated and evaluated using a diversity of curated knowledgebases and models with the goal of producing actionable insights for risk assessors and managers charged with evaluating and mitigating the effects of CECs in the Great Lakes. This overview is based on research and data captured in approximately about 90 peer-reviewed journal articles and reports, including approximately about 30 appearing in a virtual issue comprised of highlighted papers published in Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry or Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management . Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:2506–2518. © 2023 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS Information Technology Strategic Plan: Fiscal Years 2007-2011

Introduction: The acquisition, management, communication, and long-term stewardship of natural science data, information, and knowledge are fundamental mission responsibilities of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). USGS scientists collect, maintain, and exchange raw scientific data and interpret and analyze it to produce a wide variety of science-based products. Managers throughout the Bureau access, summarize, and analyze administrative or business-related information to budget, plan, evaluate, and report on programs and projects. Information professionals manage the extensive and growing stores of irreplaceable scientific information and knowledge in numerous databases, archives, libraries, and other digital and nondigital holdings. Information is the primary currency of the USGS, and it flows to scientists, managers, partners, and a wide base of customers, including local, State, and Federal agencies, private sector organizations, and individual citizens. Supporting these information flows is an infrastructure of computer systems, telecommunications equipment, software applications, digital and nondigital data stores and archives, technical expertise, and information policies and procedures. This infrastructure has evolved over many years and consists of tools and technologies acquired or built to address the specific requirements of particular projects or programs. Developed independently, the elements of this infrastructure were typically not designed to facilitate the exchange of data and information across programs or disciplines, to allow for sharing of information resources or expertise, or to be combined into a Bureauwide and broader information infrastructure. The challenge to the Bureau is to wisely and effectively use its information resources to create a more Integrated Information Environment that can reduce costs, enhance the discovery and delivery of scientific products, and improve support for science. This Information Technology Strategic Plan for the USGS outlines key information technology (IT) strategic goals and objectives that will support the Bureau's science mission, while also aligning with the Department of the Interior (DOI) IT Strategic Plan and the DOI Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) Strategic Plan.

Circular↗

Carbon storage and late Holocene chronostratigraphy of a Mississippi River deltaic marsh, St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana

Today, the causes, results, and time scale(s) of climate change, past and potential, are the focus of much research, news coverage, and pundit speculation. Many of the US government scientific agencies have some funds earmarked for research into past and (or) future climate change (National Science and Technology Council, 1997). The Mississippi Basin Carbon Project (MBCP) is part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) effort in global change research . The project is motivated by the need to increase our understanding of the role of terrestrial carbon in the global carbon cycle, particularly in the temperate latitudes of North America. The global land area between 30 O and 60 O N is thought to be a large sink for atmospheric CO2 (IPCC, 1996). The identity of this sink is unknown, but is in part the soil and sediment that makes up the upper several meters of the Earth's surface. The MBCP focuses on the Mississippi River basin, the third largest river system in the world (fig. 1), that drains an area of 3.3 x 10 6 km 2 (1.27 x 10 6 mi 2 ). The Mississippi River basin includes more than 40 percent of the land surface, and is the home of more than one-third of the population, of the conterminous United States. Because climate, vegetation, and land use vary greatly within the Mississippi River basin, the primary terrestrial sinks for carbon need to be identified and quantified for representative parts of the basin. The primary goal of the MBCP is to quantify the interactive effects of land-use, erosion, sedimentation, and soil development on carbon storage and nutrient cycles within the Mississippi River basin. The project includes spatial analysis of a wide variety of geographic data, estimation of whole-basin and sub-basin carbon and sediment budgets, development and implementation of terrestrial carbon-cycle models, and site-specific field studies of relevant processes. Areas can be studied and compared, and estimates can be made for whole-basin carbon storage and flux.

Open-File Report↗

Digital elevation data as an aid to land use and land cover classification

Elevation data is generally associated with topographic maps and expressed by contours and spot elevations. However, elevation data is also essential to the proper classification of land use and land cover by remote sensing techniques. Absolute elevation governs various types of vegetative growth as does the degree and direction of slope. However, the effect of terrain aspect (slope and direction) on reflectance is of even greater significance. The angular relationship of a surface to the sun can significantly effect the radiometric response. For flat areas this effect is contract but she slopes are involved they must be considered if automated classification is to be applied. To overcome the terrain aspect effect, rating of multi-spectral responses is used in an attempt to eliminate the terrain aspect. However, this is only partially effective and when the terrain aspect controls group cover it is of little or no value. The proper solution to the aspect problem is to obtain and utilize suitable digital elevation data in conjunction with remote sensor response. The relationship of the aspect to the response can be developed by theory of empirical test and when properly applied can neutralize the aspect response. Then the classification of land use and land cover can proceed without the unwanted radiometric anomalies of terrain aspect. In relatively well mapped areas such as the United States and Europe, digital data can be developed from topographic maps or from the stereo aerial photographic movie. For poorer mapped areas (which involved most of the world's land areas), a satellite designed to obtain stereo data offers the best hope for a digital elevation database. Such a satellite, known as Mapsat, has been defined by the U.S. Geological Survey. Utilizing modern solid state technology, there is no reason why such stereo data cannot be acquired simultaneously with the multispectral response, thus simplifying the overall problem of land use and land cover classification.

Pecora VII Symposium↗

Identifying invasive species threats, pathways, and impacts to improve biosecurity

Managing invasive species with prevention and early-detection strategies can avert severe ecological and economic impacts. Horizon scanning, an evidence-based process combining risk screening and consensus building to identify threats, has become a valuable tool for prioritizing invasive species management and prevention. We assembled a working group of experts from academic, government, and nonprofit agencies and organizations, and conducted a multi-taxa horizon scan for Florida, USA, the first of its kind in North America. Our primary objectives were to identify high-risk species and their introduction pathways, to detail the magnitude and mechanism of potential impacts, and, more broadly, to demonstrate the utility of horizon scanning. As a means to facilitate future horizon scans, we document the process used to generate the list of taxa for screening. We evaluated 460 taxa for their potential to arrive, establish, and cause negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts, and identified 40 potential invaders, including alewife, zebra mussel, crab-eating macaque, and red swamp crayfish. Vertebrates and aquatic invertebrates posed the greatest invasion threat, over half of the high-risk taxa were omnivores, and there was high confidence in the scoring of high-risk taxa. Common arrival pathways were ballast water, biofouling of vessels, and escape from the pet/aquarium/horticulture trade. Competition, predation, and damage to agriculture/forestry/aquaculture were common impact mechanisms. We recommend full risk analysis for the high-risk taxa; increased surveillance at Florida's ports, state borders, and high-risk pathways; and periodic review and revision of the list. Few horizon scans detail the comprehensive methodology (including list-building), certainty estimates for all scoring categories and the final score, detailed pathways, and the magnitude and mechanism of impact. Providing this information can further inform prevention efforts and can be efficiently replicated in other regions. Moreover, harmonizing methodology can facilitate data sharing and enhance interpretation of results for stakeholders and the general public.

Ecosphere↗

Applications of a broad-spectrum tool for conservation and fisheries analysis: Aquatic gap analysis

Natural resources support all of our social and economic activities, as well as our biological existence. Humans have little control over most of the physical, biological, and sociological conditions dictating the status and capacity of natural resources in any particular area. However, the most rapid and threatening influences on natural resources typically are anthropogenic overuse and degradation. In addition, living natural resources (i.e., organisms) do not respect political boundaries, but are aware of their optimal habitat and environmental conditions. Most organisms have wider spatial ranges than the jurisdictional boundaries of environmental agencies that deal with them; even within those jurisdictions, information is patchy and disconnected. Planning and projecting effects of ecological management are difficult, because many organisms, habitat conditions, and interactions are involved. Conservation and responsible resource use involves wise management and manipulation of the aspects of the environment and biological communities that can be effectively changed. Tools and data sets that provide new insights and analysis capabilities can enhance the ability of resource managers to make wise decisions and plan effective, long-term management strategies. Aquatic gap analysis has been developed to provide those benefits. Gap analysis is more than just the assessment of the match or mis-match (i.e., gaps) between habitats of ecological value and areas with an appropriate level of environmental protection (e.g., refuges, parks, preserves), as the name suggests. Rather, a Gap Analysis project is a process which leads to an organized database of georeferenced information and previously available tools to examine conservation and other ecological issues; it provides a geographic analysis platform that serves as a foundation for aquatic ecological studies. This analytical tool box allows one to conduct assessments of all habitat elements within an area of interest. Aquatic gap analysis naturally focuses on aquatic habitats. The analytical tools are largely based on specification of the species-habitat relations for the system and organism group of interest (Morrison et al. 2003; McKenna et al. 2006; Steen et al. 2006; Sowa et al. 2007). The Great Lakes Regional Aquatic Gap Analysis (GLGap) project focuses primarily on lotic habitat of the U.S. Great Lakes drainage basin and associated states and has been developed to address fish and fisheries issues. These tools are unique because they allow us to address problems at a range of scales from the region to the stream segment and include the ability to predict species specific occurrence or abundance for most of the fish species in the study area. The results and types of questions that can be addressed provide better global understanding of the ecological context within which specific natural resources fit (e.g., neighboring environments and resources, and large and small scale processes). The geographic analysis platform consists of broad and flexible geospatial tools (and associated data) with many potential applications. The objectives of this article are to provide a brief overview of GLGap methods and analysis tools, and demonstrate conservation and planning applications of those data and tools. Although there are many potential applications, we will highlight just three: (1) support for the Eastern Brook Trout Joint Venture (EBTJV), (2) Aquatic Life classification in Wisconsin, and (3) an educational tool that makes use of Google Earth (use of trade or product names does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government) and Internet accessibility.

Gap Analysis Bulletin↗

Understanding landowner intentions to create early successional forest habitat in the northeastern United States

Early successional forest habitat (ESH) and associated wildlife species in the northeastern United States are in decline. One way to help create early successional forest conditions is engaging private forest landowners in even-aged forest management because their limited participation may have contributed to declines in ESH for wildlife species of high conservation concern. We applied the reasoned action approach from social psychology to predict intentions of landowners in the 13-county Southern Tier of New York State, USA, to conduct patch-cuts, which is a type of even-aged forest management. We tested the predictive ability of the model using data from a mail survey of landowners conducted from November 2010 to January 2011. Landowner intention to conduct patch-cuts was high (55% of respondents), with attitude being the strongest direct predictor of behavioral intention. Our results suggest that patch-cutting intentions are most likely expressed by landowners who think the behavior is good for their land and wildlife, believe in positive outcomes of land and wildlife management, belong to a game wildlife organization, and have conducted patch-cuts in the past. Strategies to engage more landowners in ESH management will have the highest likelihood of success if outreach efforts focus on influencing behavioral beliefs and subsequently attitudes, possibly working with game wildlife organizations to communicate a unified message for habitat conservation, including the importance of maintaining and creating ESH. Our results demonstrate the importance of social science research to increase the likelihood that conservation targets for declining wildlife species are met. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

New York↗

Rebuttal of "Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit"

Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior's listing-decision process, the US Geological Survey (USGS) produced a series of nine research reports evaluating the present and future status of polar bears throughout their range. In response, Armstrong et al. [Armstrong, J. S., K. C. Green, W. Soon. 2008. Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces 38 (5) 382–405], which we will refer to as AGS, performed an audit of two of these nine reports. AGS claimed that the general circulation models upon which the USGS reports relied were not valid forecasting tools, that USGS researchers were not objective or lacked independence from policy decisions, that they did not utilize all available information in constructing their forecasts, and that they violated numerous principles of forecasting espoused by AGS. AGS (p. 382) concluded that the two USGS reports were "unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers." We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so. We clarify the strict independence of the USGS from the listing decision. We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment, polar bear biology, or statistical and mathematical methods. We conclude by showing that the AGS principles of forecasting are too ambiguous and subjective to be used as a reliable basis for auditing scientific investigations. In summary, we show that the AGS audit offers no valid criticism of the USGS conclusion that global warming poses a serious threat to the future welfare of polar bears and that it only serves to distract from reasoned public-policy debate.

Interfaces↗

Risk management of El Chichón and Tacaná Volcanoes: Lessons learned from past volcanic crises: Chapter 8

Before 1985, Mexico lacked civil-protection agencies with a mission to prevent and respond to natural and human-caused disasters; thus, the government was unprepared for the sudden eruption of El Chichón Volcano in March–April 1982, which produced the deadliest volcanic disaster in the country’s recorded history (~2,000 fatalities). With the sobering lessons of El Chichón still fresh, scientists and governmental officials had a higher awareness of possible disastrous outcome when Tacaná Volcano began to exhibit unrest in late 1985. Seismic and geochemical studies were quickly initiated to monitor activity. At the same time, scientists worked actively with officials of the Federal and local agencies to develop the “Plan Operativo” (Operational Plan)—expressly designed to effectively communicate hazards information and reduce confusion and panic among the affected population. Even though the volcano-monitoring data obtained during the Tacaná crisis were limited, when used in conjunction with protocols of the Operational Plan, they proved useful in mitigating risk and easing public anxiety. While comprehensive monitoring is not yet available, both El Chichón and Tacaná volcanoes are currently monitored—seismically and geochemically—within the scientific and economic resources available. Numerous post-eruption studies have generated new insights into the volcanic systems that have been factored into subsequent volcano monitoring and hazards assessments. The State of Chiapas is now much better positioned to deal with any future unrest or eruptive activity at El Chichón or Tacaná, both of which at the moment are quiescent as of 2014. Perhaps more importantly, the protocols first tested in 1986 at Tacaná have served as the basis for the development of risk-management practices for hazards from other active and potentially active volcanoes in Mexico. These practices have been most notably employed since 1994 at Volcán Popocatépetl since a major eruption under unfavorable prevailing winds may constitute a substantial threat to densely populated metropolitan Mexico City. While the 1982 El Chichón disaster was a national tragedy, it greatly accelerated volcanic emergency preparedness and multidisciplinary scientific studies of eruptive processes and products, not only at El Chichón but also at other explosive volcanoes in Mexico and elsewhere in the world.

Chiapas↗

Quality of surface-water supplies in the Triangle area of North Carolina, water years 2010-11

Surface-water supplies are important sources of drinking water for residents in the Triangle area of North Carolina, which is located within the upper Cape Fear and Neuse River Basins. Since 1988, the U.S. Geological Survey and a consortium of local governments have tracked water-quality conditions and trends in several of the area’s water-supply lakes and streams. This report summarizes data collected through this cooperative effort, known as the Triangle Area Water Supply Monitoring Project, during October 2009 through September 2010 (water year 2010) and October 2010 through September 2011 (water year 2011). Major findings for this data-collection effort include Annual precipitation was approximately 4 percent above the long-term mean (average) annual precipitation in 2010 and approximately 6 percent below the long-term mean in 2011. In water year 2010, streamflow was near the long-term mean for most of the period for the 10 project streamflow gaging stations. Streamflow was near or below the long-term mean at the same streamflow gaging stations during the 2011 water year. More than 13,000 individual measurements of water quality were made at a total of 28 sites—17 in the Neuse River Basin and 11 in the Cape Fear River Basin. Forty-three water-quality properties or constituents were measured; North Carolina water-quality standards exist for 21 of these. All observations met State water-quality standards for water temperature, hardness, chloride, fluoride, sulfate, nitrate plus nitrite, arsenic, cadmium, chromium, lead, nickel, and selenium. State water-quality standards were exceeded one or more times for dissolved oxygen, dissolved oxygen percent saturation, pH, copper, iron, manganese, mercury, silver, and zinc. Exceedances occurred at 27 sites—17 in the Neuse River Basin and 10 in the Cape Fear River Basin. Stream samples collected during storm events contained elevated concentrations of 25 water-quality constituents relative to non-storm events.

North Carolina↗

Great expectations for earthquake early warnings on the United States West Coast

In October 2019, California became the first state in the United States to fully activate a public earthquake early warning system—ShakeAlert®—managed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The system was subsequently rolled out in March 2021 in Oregon and May 2021 in Washington. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems can provide seconds of notice to people and technological systems that shaking is imminent, but their effectiveness depends on recipients’ expectations and actions as well as technical performance. To better understand these dependencies, we surveyed representative samples of adults in California (N = 1219), Oregon (N = 1020), and Washington (N = 1037) in February 2021. Most respondents had experienced earthquakes, but few had lived through violent shaking; most had not followed protective action guidance to Drop, Cover, and Hold On (DCHO) in earthquakes; and most reported no personal or social harm from prior earthquakes. Nevertheless, expectations and perceived usefulness of EEW were high, and higher still for those who expected alerts to be accurate and easy to use, expressed tolerance of missed and erroneous warnings, and expected to be affected by a damaging earthquake in their lifetime. Results suggest opportunities to better align public preferences and expectations with ShakeAlert operations. For example, some respondents preferred lower alerting thresholds than those proposed by government and scientists. Moreover, reported tolerance of warning errors was widespread, but respondents wanted explanations quickly, suggesting a need to further develop post-alert messaging. Findings from this study should be informative for future research on the co-evolution of experiences and expectations with EEW systems.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

A Web-Based Decision Support System for Assessing Regional Water-Quality Conditions and Management Actions

The U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment Program has completed a number of water-quality prediction models for nitrogen and phosphorus for the conterminous United States as well as for regional areas of the nation. In addition to estimating water-quality conditions at unmonitored streams, the calibrated SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models can be used to produce estimates of yield, flow-weighted concentration, or load of constituents in water under various land-use condition, change, or resource management scenarios. A web-based decision support infrastructure has been developed to provide access to SPARROW simulation results on stream water-quality conditions and to offer sophisticated scenario testing capabilities for research and water-quality planning via a graphical user interface with familiar controls. The SPARROW decision support system (DSS) is delivered through a web browser over an Internet connection, making it widely accessible to the public in a format that allows users to easily display water-quality conditions and to describe, test, and share modeled scenarios of future conditions. SPARROW models currently supported by the DSS are based on the modified digital versions of the 1:500,000-scale River Reach File (RF1) and 1:100,000-scale National Hydrography Dataset (medium-resolution, NHDPlus) stream networks. ?? 2011 American Water Resources Association. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

The 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska

Augustine Volcano, the most historically active volcano in Alaska’s Cook Inlet region, again showed signs of life in April 2005. Escalating seismic unrest, ground deformation, and gas emissions culminated in an eruption from January 11 to mid-March of 2006, the fifth major eruption in 75 years. The eruption began with a series of 13 short-lived blasts over 20 days that sent pyroclastic flows; snow, rock, and ice avalanches; and lahars down the volcano’s snow clad flanks; ash clouds drifted hundreds of kilometers downwind. Punctuated explosive activity gave way to effusion of lava and emplacement of thick block-and-ash flows on the volcano’s north flank that continued through mid-February. In mid-March renewed extrusion resulted in the building of a new, higher summit lava dome and two blocky lava flows on the north and northeast flanks of the cone. The eruption resulted in ash fall on many south-central Alaskan communities and disrupted air traffic in the region. Augustine’s frequent eruptions and relatively easy access have long drawn volcanologists to study the accumulation, ascent, and eruption of andesitic to dacitic magma. Studies of the most recent activity before 2006, in 1976 and 1986, revealed that the volcano lately produces explosive eruptions that are preceded by months of unrest and injection of new magma into a storage region in the upper several kilometers of the crust. Each of these eruptions then followed a similar progression from explosive to effusive behavior over several months. Petrologic and geophysical observations suggest that these three eruptions were triggered by similar magma mixing events and that the subsequent ascent and eruption of magma was governed by processes that were roughly constant from one eruption to the next. Geologic studies of the island show that in the more distant past parts of Augustine’s edifice have failed repeatedly, resulting in debris avalanches that entered the sea and, at least once, in 1883, caused a tsunami that hit surrounding Cook Inlet coastlines. Such edifice failures and resultant local tsunamis should be expected in the future. Recognition of Augustine’s frequent activity and hazardous nature led to the installation of a network of telemetered seismometers beginning in 1971, the establishment of a geodetic network in 1988, and the installation of other new instrumentation such as pressure sensors, broadband seismometers, and cameras by the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), and the selection of Augustine for geodetic instrumentation through the EarthScope/Plate Boundary Observatory program in 2004. In addition, remote sensing techniques, such as airborne thermal imaging and the advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer (ASTER), provided novel and often critical information as the 2006 eruption progressed. The combination of a long-term seismic network and an array of new monitoring techniques has provided a breadth and depth of understanding of Augustine’s most recent activity that was not possible in the past. This volume contains 28 chapters reporting on a diverse suite of new scientific observations and investigations that were motivated by the 2006 eruption. Understanding the magmatic processes that drive eruptions, identifying eruptive events, tracking the movement of ash clouds, and communicating the resultant hazards to other government agencies and the public are all critical tasks for AVO, and chapters touch upon all of these topics. One goal in this compilation is to synthesize the diverse information into as complete an understanding of the magmatic and eruptive processes as possible. An equally important goal is to provide a framework for diagnosing periods of unrest and formulating forecasts of eruptions that will certainly take place at Augustine in the future. This latter goal is especially important, as Augustine’s frequent eruptive activity suggests that another eruption can be expected within the next several decades. Consequently, the investigations in this volume are intended to provide both a means to better forecast future eruptive episodes and also an opportunity to formulate and test future hypotheses for magmatic and eruptive processes. Future eruptions may follow a course similar to those observed in 1976, 1986, and 2006. However, a major perturbation that upsets conditions within the magmatic system could occur, owing perhaps to the rise of a much larger or different parental magma or to a large edifice failure similar to the 1883 sector collapse. In such events, the comprehensive study of past eruptions will provide data critical to assessing the current state of the magmatic system. In assembling this volume we have sought as consistent and accurate a portrayal of the 2006 eruption as possible. We have asked all authors to refer to the same basic eruption chronology, unless their observations and data require alternative explanations. Naturally, not all techniques or methodologies produce a completely consistent set of observations, nor do the precise conclusions in every paper support one another. We have grouped chapters on the basis of discipline. Papers that focus on specific techniques, methodology, or instrumentation are placed throughout the volume where they best fit with others that rely on their results.

Alaska↗

North Carolina State climate report

Our scientific understanding of the climate system strongly supports the conclusion that North Carolina’s climate has changed in recent decades and the expectation that large changes—much larger than at any time in the state’s history—will occur if current trends in greenhouse gas concentrations continue. Even under a scenario where emissions peak around 2050 and decline thereafter, North Carolina will experience substantial changes in climate. The projected changes with the highest level of scientific confidence include increases in temperature, increases in summer absolute humidity, increases in sea level, and increases in extreme precipitation. It is also likely that there will be increases in the intensity of the strongest hurricanes. A full appreciation for past and future changes in North Carolina’s climate requires a global perspective. Earth’s climate has warmed substantially since the late 19th century, with most of that warming occurring in the last 50 years. This warming trend is clear from global temperature records and many other indicators, including rising global sea levels and rapid decreases in arctic sea ice cover. Scientists have very high confidence that this warming is largely due to human activities that have significantly increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases. Exhaustive research has examined other potential causes of this warming, and the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is the only plausible cause that is consistent with the observed data and the physics that governs the climate system.

North Carolina↗