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At least 865 records · Page 48Linked to original sources
USGS2011

MercNet: A national monitoring network to assess responses to changing mercury emissions in the United States

A partnership of federal and state agencies, tribes, industry, and scientists from academic research and environmental organizations is establishing a national, policy-relevant mercury monitoring network, called MercNet, to address key questions concerning changes in anthropogenic mercury emissions and deposition, associated linkages to ecosystem effects, and recovery from mercury contamination. This network would quantify mercury in the atmosphere, land, water, and biota in terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal ecosystems to provide a national scientific capability for evaluating the benefits and effectiveness of emission controls. Program development began with two workshops, convened to establish network goals, to select key indicators for monitoring, to propose a geographic network of monitoring sites, and to design a monitoring plan. MercNet relies strongly on multi-institutional partnerships to secure the capabilities and comprehensive data that are needed to develop, calibrate, and refine predictive mercury models and to guide effective management. Ongoing collaborative efforts include the: (1) development of regional multi-media databases on mercury in the Laurentian Great Lakes, northeastern United States, and eastern Canada; (2) syntheses and reporting of these data for the scientific and policy communities; and (3) evaluation of potential monitoring sites. The MercNet approach could be applied to the development of other monitoring programs, such as emerging efforts to monitor and assess global mercury emission controls.

Ecotoxicology↗
USGS2013

Summary, synthesis, and significance

The initial habitat suitability model estimates pre‐European suitable habitat of the Mohave ground squirrel (MGS, Xerospermophilus mohavensis ) covering 19,023 km 2 . Impact scenarios predicted that between 10 percent and 16 percent of suitable habitat has been lost to historical human disturbances, and up to an additional 10 percent may be affected by renewable energy development in the near future. These figures are the result of analyses conducted solely on public lands. State and private lands in the region also have pending proposals for renewable energy on 260 km 2 , and an additional 3,500 km 2 may be available for renewable energy. The sum of potential habitat disturbance on public, State, and private lands could equal up to a quarter of historic suitable habitat from pre‐European settlement levels. While the analyses conducted here consider direct impacts from the footprint of renewable energy and associated transmission corridors, there are many indirect sources of environmental disturbance related to renewable energy development (Lovich and Ennen 2011). Some of those potentially important to the MGS include: increased fugitive dust and the release of chemicals such as dust suppressants, insulating fluids, and herbicides throughout the operational life of facilities, auditory interference from the sound and vibrations of turbines, increases in predators and invasive species that further alter system processes, and changes in surface flow of water that also influence vegetation that is important in these habitats. However, there is little research in the broader context of these topics for the Mojave Desert ecosystem, and less, if any, about the MGS.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2013

Population ecology of polar bears in Davis Strait, Canada and Greenland

Until recently, the sea ice habitat of polar bears was understood to be variable, but environmental variability was considered to be cyclic or random, rather than progressive. Harvested populations were believed to be at levels where density effects were considered not significant. However, because we now understand that polar bear demography can also be influenced by progressive change in the environment, and some populations have increased to greater densities than historically lower numbers, a broader suite of factors should be considered in demographic studies and management. We analyzed 35 years of capture and harvest data from the polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) subpopulation in Davis Strait, including data from a new study (2005–2007), to quantify its current demography. We estimated the population size in 2007 to be 2,158 ± 180 (SE), a likely increase from the 1970s. We detected variation in survival, reproductive rates, and age-structure of polar bears from geographic sub-regions. Survival and reproduction of bears in southern Davis Strait was greater than in the north and tied to a concurrent dramatic increase in breeding harp seals ( Pagophilus groenlandicus ) in Labrador. The most supported survival models contained geographic and temporal variables. Harp seal abundance was significantly related to polar bear survival. Our estimates of declining harvest recovery rate, and increasing total survival, suggest that the rate of harvest declined over time. Low recruitment rates, average adult survival rates, and high population density, in an environment of high prey density, but deteriorating and variable ice conditions, currently characterize the Davis Strait polar bears. Low reproductive rates may reflect negative effects of greater densities or worsening ice conditions.

Davis Strait↗
USGS2008

Assessing streamflow characteristics as limiting factors on benthic invertebrate assemblages in streams across the western United States

1. Human use of land and water resources modifies many streamflow characteristics, which can have significant ecological consequences. Streamflow and invertebrate data collected at 111 sites in the western U.S.A. were analysed to identify streamflow characteristics (magnitude, frequency, duration, timing and variation) that are probably to limit characteristics of benthic invertebrate assemblages (abundance, richness, diversity and evenness, functional feeding groups and individual taxa) and, thus, would be important for freshwater conservation and restoration. Our analysis investigated multiple metrics for each biological and hydrological characteristic, but focuses on 14 invertebrate metrics and 13 streamflow metrics representing the key associations between streamflow and invertebrates. 2. Streamflow is only one of many environmental and biotic factors that influence the characteristics of invertebrate assemblages. Although the central tendency of invertebrate assemblage characteristics may not respond to any one factor across a large region like the western U.S.A., we postulate that streamflow may limit some invertebrates. To assess streamflow characteristics as limiting factors on invertebrate assemblages, we developed a nonparametric screening procedure to identify upper (ceilings) or lower (floors) limits on invertebrate metrics associated with streamflow metrics. Ceilings and floors for selected metrics were then quantified using quantile regression. 3. Invertebrate assemblages had limits associated with all streamflow characteristics that we analysed. Metrics of streamflow variation at daily to inter-annual scales were among the most common characteristics associated with limits on invertebrate assemblages. Baseflow recession, daily variation and monthly variation, in streamflow were associated with the largest number of invertebrate metrics. Since changes in streamflow variation are often a consequence of hydrologic alteration, they may serve as useful indicators of ecologically significant changes in streamflow and as benchmarks for managing streamflow for ecological objectives. 4. Relative abundance of Plecoptera, richness of non-insect taxa and relative abundance of intolerant taxa were associated with multiple streamflow metrics. Metrics of sensitive taxa (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera), and intolerant taxa generally had ceilings associated with flow metrics while metrics of tolerant taxa, non-insects, dominance and chironomids generally had floors. Broader characteristics of invertebrate assemblages such as abundance and richness had fewer limits, but these limits were nonetheless associated with a broad range of streamflow characteristics.

Freshwater Biology↗
USGS2023

Ancient infrastructure offers sustainable agricultural solutions to dryland farming

For 1000 years, human populations in dryland regions of the North American Southwest (NAS) extensively constructed diverse forms of agricultural infrastructure, including canals, linear rock alignments, check dams, stock ponds, and other earthworks and rock structures. The long-term hydrological impacts of these and the demographic and socio-political drivers of construction and maintenance have yet to be fully documented or vetted. This paper summarizes existing knowledge attained from the United Stated portion of the NAS, but a lot is still unknown about Northwest Mexico. There remain outstanding questions related to understanding how ancient agriculture might improve modern adaptability and resilience. The detailed ecological and topographical variability of this arid landscape illustrates the essential need for infrastructure in maintaining water and managing the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle. We describe pros and cons of different types of infrastructure and examine socio-environmental trade-offs between robustness and vulnerability produced by reliance on infrastructure, drawing from existing literature to examine timescales longer than a human lifespan. The development of historically-informed management approaches to increase dryland climate resilience benefits from incorporating constraints and opportunities mediated by past landscape modifications. We present a plan for leveraging existing knowledge, available science, and potential, to extend our knowledge base and further explore causal relationships.

Book chapter↗
USGS2014

Spatio-temporal patterns and climate variables controlling of biomass carbon stock of global grassland ecosystems from 1982 to 2006

Grassland ecosystems play an important role in subsistence agriculture and the global carbon cycle. However, the global spatio-temporal patterns and environmental controls of grassland biomass are not well quantified and understood. The goal of this study was to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of the global grassland biomass and analyze their driving forces using field measurements, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from satellite data, climate reanalysis data, and a satellite-based statistical model. Results showed that the NDVI-based biomass carbon model developed from this study explained 60% of the variance across 38 sites globally. The global carbon stock in grassland aboveground live biomass was 1.05 Pg·C, averaged from 1982 to 2006, and increased at a rate of 2.43 Tg·C·y −1 during this period. Temporal change of the global biomass was significantly and positively correlated with temperature and precipitation. The distribution of biomass carbon density followed the precipitation gradient. The dynamics of regional grassland biomass showed various trends largely determined by regional climate variability, disturbances, and management practices (such as grazing for meat production). The methods and results from this study can be used to monitor the dynamics of grassland aboveground biomass and evaluate grassland susceptibility to climate variability and change, disturbances, and management.

Remote Sensing↗
USGS2012

Northern Basin and Range Ecoregion: Chapter 23 in Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000

The Northern Basin and Range Ecoregion (Omernik, 1987; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1997) is located in eastern Oregon (58.7 percent), northern Nevada (20.6 percent), southwestern Idaho (14.8 percent), and northeastern California (5.9 percent), encompassing the northern extent of the hydrographic Great Basin (Grayson, 1993). The ecoregion, which covers approximately 110,039 km² (42,486 mi²) of land, is bordered on the west by the Eastern Cascades Slopes and Foothills and the Sierra Nevada Ecoregions, on the north by the Blue Mountains and the Snake River Basin Ecoregions, and on the south by the Central Basin and Range Ecoregion (fig. 1). Much like the other Basin and Range ecoregions in the western United States (for example, Central Basin and Range, Mojave Basin and Range, and Sonoran Basin and Range Ecoregions), the Northern Basin and Range Ecoregion is characterized by basin-and-range topography. The ecoregion contains several wide basins bordered by scattered low mountains. Big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ), the predominant vegetation, is intermixed with grasslands. Despite regional aridity, natural springs and spring-fed wetlands are scattered around the landscape, sustaining much of the region’s wildlife (Oregon Department of State Lands, 2000).

California;Idaho;Nevada;Oregon↗
USGS2004

Incorporating uncertainty into mercury-offset decisions with a probabilistic network for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit holders: An interim report

This interim report describes an alternative approach for evaluating the efficacy of using mercury (Hg) offsets to improve water quality. Hg-offset programs may allow dischargers facing higher-pollution control costs to meet their regulatory obligations by making more cost effective pollutant-reduction decisions. Efficient Hg management requires methods to translate that science and economics into a regulatory decision framework. This report documents the work in progress by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center in collaboration with Stanford University toward developing this decision framework to help managers, regulators, and other stakeholders decide whether offsets can cost effectively meet the Hg total maximum daily load (TMDL) requirements in the Sacramento River watershed. Two key approaches being considered are: (1) a probabilistic approach that explicitly incorporates scientific uncertainty, cost information, and value judgments; and (2) a quantitative approach that captures uncertainty in testing the feasibility of Hg offsets. Current fate and transport-process models commonly attempt to predict chemical transformations and transport pathways deterministically. However, the physical, chemical, and biologic processes controlling the fate and transport of Hg in aquatic environments are complex and poorly understood. Deterministic models of Hg environmental behavior contain large uncertainties, reflecting this lack of understanding. The uncertainty in these underlying physical processes may produce similarly large uncertainties in the decisionmaking process. However, decisions about control strategies are still being made despite the large uncertainties in current Hg loadings, the relations between total Hg (HgT) loading and methylmercury (MeHg) formation, and the relations between control efforts and Hg content in fish. The research presented here focuses on an alternative analytical approach to the current use of safety factors and deterministic methods for Hg TMDL decision support, one that is fully compatible with an adaptive management approach. This alternative approach uses empirical data and informed judgment to provide a scientific and technical basis for helping National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit holders make management decisions. An Hg-offset system would be an option if a wastewater-treatment plant could not achieve NPDES permit requirements for HgT reduction. We develop a probabilistic decision-analytical model consisting of three submodels for HgT loading, MeHg, and cost mitigation within a Bayesian network that integrates information of varying rigor and detail into a simple model of a complex system. Hg processes are identified and quantified by using a combination of historical data, statistical models, and expert judgment. Such an integrated approach to uncertainty analysis allows easy updating of prediction and inference when observations of model variables are made. We demonstrate our approach with data from the Cache Creek watershed (a subbasin of the Sacramento River watershed). The empirical models used to generate the needed probability distributions are based on the same empirical models currently being used by the Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Cache Creek Hg TMDL working group. The significant difference is that input uncertainty and error are explicitly included in the model and propagated throughout its algorithms. This work demonstrates how to integrate uncertainty into the complex and highly uncertain Hg TMDL decisionmaking process. The various sources of uncertainty are propagated as decision risk that allows decisionmakers to simultaneously consider uncertainties in remediation/implementation costs while attempting to meet environmental/ecologic targets. We must note that this research is on going. As more data are collected, the HgT and cost-mitigation submodels are updated and the uncertainties may be reduced. Subsequently, the value of using a probabilistic framework for estimating and explicitly stating these uncertainties within a decisionmaking process can be estimated when new data are collected. Future work includes the design and implementation of a Bayesian network decision support system (BN-DSS) to produce mitigation scenarios for offset-project evaluation in the Cache Creek watershed. The decisionmaker, a wastewater-treatment plant, is expected to evaluate potential Hg-offset programs in terms of changes in HgT load changes, MeHg-production potential, project cost, and other suitability criteria. Subsequently, scenarios can be analyzed by performing sensitivity analyses and ranking environmental and economic uncertainties in terms of the decisionmaker’s preferences and risk choices. Such an analysis allows decisionmakers and stakeholders to explore various scenarios and predict the consequences of different stated preferences over outcomes.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2015

Linking climate change and health outcomes: Examining the relationship between temperature, precipitation and birth weight in Africa

This paper examined the relationship between birth weight, precipitation, and temperature in 19 African countries. We matched recorded birth weights from Demographic and Health Surveys covering 1986 through 2010 with gridded monthly precipitation and temperature data derived from satellite and ground-based weather stations. Observed weather patterns during various stages of pregnancy were also used to examine the effect of temperature and precipitation on birth weight outcomes. In our empirical model we allowed the effect of weather factors to vary by the dominant food production strategy (livelihood zone) in a given region as well as by household wealth, mother's education and birth season. This allowed us to determine if certain populations are more or less vulnerable to unexpected weather changes after adjusting for known covariates. Finally we measured effect size by observing differences in birth weight outcomes in women who have one low birth weight experience and at least one healthy birth weight baby. The results indicated that climate does indeed impact birth weight and at a level comparable, in some cases, to the impact of increasing women's education or household electricity status.

Global Environmental Change↗
USGS2020

Mercury export from Arctic great rivers

Land–ocean linkages are strong across the circumpolar north, where the Arctic Ocean accounts for 1% of the global ocean volume and receives more than 10% of the global river discharge. Yet estimates of Arctic riverine mercury (Hg) export constrained from direct Hg measurements remain sparse. Here, we report results from a coordinated, year-round sampling program that focused on the six major Arctic rivers to establish a contemporary (2012–2017) benchmark of riverine Hg export. We determine that the six major Arctic rivers exported an average of 20 000 kg y –1 of total Hg (THg, all forms of Hg). Upscaled to the pan-Arctic, we estimate THg flux of 37 000 kg y –1 . More than 90% of THg flux occurred during peak river discharge in spring and summer. Normalizing fluxes to watershed area (yield) reveals higher THg yields in regions where greater denudation likely enhances Hg mobilization. River discharge, suspended sediment, and dissolved organic carbon predicted THg concentration with moderate fidelity, while suspended sediment and water yields predicted THg yield with high fidelity. These findings establish a benchmark in the face of rapid Arctic warming and an intensifying hydrologic cycle, which will likely accelerate Hg cycling in tandem with changing inputs from thawing permafrost and industrial activity.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2024

Thermal and hydrological limitations on modeling carbon dynamics at wetland sites of discontinuous and continuous permafrost extent

Accurate representation of cryohydrological processes is fundamental for biosphere models, particularly at high-latitudes, given their influence on carbon and permafrost dynamics in carbon-rich peatlands and wetlands. This study analyzes site-level simulations in moist and wet drainage conditions in continuous or discontinuous permafrost regions, using a terrestrial ecosystem model DVM-DOS-TEM. Functional benchmarking was conducted against eddy covariance flux alongside soil temperature, moisture, and thaw depth observations. Thermal and hydrological analysis reveals parameter sensitivity and uncertainty concerning carbon cycling and permafrost dynamics. Flux representation is markedly consistent at sites characterized by continuous permafrost with less seasonal variation, owing to longer soil freezing duration. Sites in discontinuous permafrost, exhibiting active permafrost degradation and talik formation, pose considerable challenges in accurately depicting thaw depth. Underprediction of soil moisture across all sites has more pronounced effects on boreal wetlands characterized by thick organic layers up to 1 m. These results illustrate the limitations of terrestrial ecosystem models to represent environmental and ecological dynamics in wetlands. Attempts to adjust model hydrology have yielded marginal improvements in thaw depth prediction, but revealed large effects of abrupt phase changes for poorly drained sites on discontinuous permafrost. Our analysis suggests the importance of gradual phase change representation, particularly in ice-rich wetlands with thick organic layers, which will be crucial when evaluating the permafrost carbon-climate feedback in model projections.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Waterfront property owners' shoreline preferences amid salt marsh to mangrove transitions

1. We examined the influence of mangrove encroachment into salt marsh areas along the northern Gulf of Mexico (USA) on waterfront property owners' perceptions of coastal health and preferences for shoreline management. 2. Using mail-in and online surveys, we targeted over 3000 waterfront property owners across four jurisdictions experiencing or anticipating mangrove encroachment. 3. Our findings revealed a nuanced perception of coastal health, with many respondents recognizing the potentially environmental impacts of mangrove encroachment but favouring low-cost management strategies, such as maintaining current shoreline or passive monitoring. This reluctance to engage in active management highlights a perception-behaviour gap, likely influenced by the gradual nature of mangrove transitions, which diminishes urgency for active intervention. 4. Socio-demographic factors such as age, gender, income, residency and reliance on coastal resources significantly shaped preferences for shoreline management and regional responses. These preferences varied across jurisdictions, reflecting the importance of incorporating localized community values into management decisions. 5. Our findings highlight the need for a balanced approach to shoreline management that integrates ecological insights with the socio-cultural priorities of local communities. By aligning adaptation strategies with regional perceptions and values, it is possible to protect individual properties while enhancing the long-term resilience of coastal ecosystems under climate change pressures.

Florida, Texas↗
USGS2024

eZ flow metrics: Using z-scores to estimate deviations from natural flow in the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam

River flow patterns are primary drivers of lotic ecosystems, and hundreds of metrics have been developed to quantify flow attributes. Although existing metrics have been a powerful tool in designing environmental flows, they are often developed with specific resources in mind and are rarely directly comparable with each other (i.e., units are often different). Here, we focus on natural flows as the resource of interest and develop z-score metrics that measure the naturalness of regulated flows, incorporating natural means and interannual variation. These “eZ metrics” summarize whole year, subdaily, and functional flow patterns as standard deviations from natural such that their values are directly comparable. We illustrate their utility with a case study from the Colorado River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam in Arizona, USA. We calculated metrics for 1964–2022, spanning greater than 5 decades of changing water policy, hydropower generation, and flow experimentation. We evaluate four options for estimating natural baseline flows. Across metrics, we found that subdaily stage variation deviated the most from baseline. Flows to satisfy regional water policy and power demands altered metrics more than designer flows (which target specific resource outcomes), and years with low water releases were closest to natural. Most of the designer flows have not made flow patterns more natural, due to incorrect seasonal timing, small magnitude, or short duration. By explicitly considering interannual variability and quantifying how regulated flows differ from natural using standard deviations, these metrics can inform management when the goal is to restore a natural flow regime.

Colorado River basin↗
USGS2023

Stress gradients structure spatial variability in coastal tidal marsh plant composition and diversity in a major Pacific coast estuary

Understanding the drivers of variability in plant diversity from local to landscape spatial scales is a challenge in ecological systems. Environmental gradients exist at several spatial scales and can be nested hierarchically, influencing patterns of plant diversity in complex ways. As plant community dynamics influence ecosystem function, understanding the drivers of plant community variability across space is paramount for predicting potential shifts in ecosystem function from global change. Determining the scales at which stress gradients influence vegetation composition is crucial to inform management and restoration of tidal marshes for specific functions. Here, we analyzed vegetation community composition in 51 tidal marshes from the San Francisco Bay Estuary, California, USA. We used model-based compositional analysis and rank abundance curves to quantify environmental (elevation/tidal frame position, distance to channel, and channel salinity) and species trait (species form, wetland indicator status, and native status) influences on plant community variability at the marsh site and estuary scales. While environmental impacts on plant diversity varied by species and their relationships to each other, overall impacts increased in strength from marsh to estuary scales. Relative species abundance was important in structuring these tidal marsh communities even with the limited species pools dominated by a few species. Rank abundance curves revealed different community structures by region with higher species evenness at plots higher in the tidal frame and adjacent to freshwater channels. By identifying interactions (species–species, species–environment, and environment–trait) at multiple scales (local, landscape), we begin to understand how variability measurements could be interpreted for conservation and land management decisions.

California↗
USGS2002

Groundwater contamination downstream of a contaminant penetration site. II. Horizontal penetration of the contaminant plume

Part I of this study (Rubin, H.; Buddemeier, R.W. Groundwater Contamination Downstream of a Contaminant Penetration Site Part 1: Extension-Expansion of the Contaminant Plume. J. of Environmental Science and Health Part A (in press).) addressed cases, in which a comparatively thin contaminated region represented by boundary layers (BLs) developed within the freshwater aquifer close to contaminant penetration site. However, at some distance downstream from the penetration site, the top of the contaminant plume reaches the top or bottom of the aquifer. This is the location of the "attachment point," which comprises the entrance cross section of the domain evaluated by the present part of the study. It is shown that downstream from the entrance cross section, a set of two BLs develop in the aquifer, termed inner and outer BLs. It is assumed that the evaluated domain, in which the contaminant distribution gradually becomes uniform, can be divided into two sections, designated: (a) the restructuring section, and (b) the establishment section. In the restructuring section, the vertical concentration gradient leads to expansion of the inner BL at the expense of the outer BL, and there is almost no transfer of contaminant mass between the two layers. In the establishment section, each of the BLs occupies half of the aquifer thickness, and the vertical concentration gradient leads to transfer of contaminant mass from the inner to the outer BL. By use of BL approximations, changes of salinity distribution in the aquifer are calculated and evaluated. The establishment section ends at the uniformity point, downstream from which the contaminant concentration profile is practically uniform. The length of the restructuring section, as well as that of the establishment section, is approximately proportional to the aquifer thickness squared, and is inversely proportional to the transverse dispersivity. The study provides a convenient set of definitions and terminology that are helpful in visualizing the gradual development of uniform contaminant concentration distribution in an aquifer subject to contaminant plume penetration. The method developed in this study can be applied to a variety of problems associated with groundwater quality, such as initial evaluation of field data, design of field data collection, the identification of appropriate boundary conditions for numerical models, selection of appropriate numerical modeling approaches, interpretation and evaluation of field monitoring results, etc.

Journal of Environmental Science and Health - Part↗
USGS2009

Revised Comparisons of Simulated Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Projected Demands in 2046, Pueblo Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado

Pueblo Reservoir is one of southeastern Colorado's most valuable water resources. The reservoir provides irrigation, municipal, and industrial water to various entities throughout the region. The reservoir also provides flood control, recreational activities, sport fishing, and wildlife enhancement to the region. The Southern Delivery System (SDS) project is a regional water-delivery project that has been proposed to provide a safe, reliable, and sustainable water supply through the foreseeable future (2046) for Colorado Springs, Fountain, Security, and Pueblo West. Discussions with the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey led to a cooperative agreement to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality of Pueblo Reservoir. This work has been completed and described in a previously published report, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5056. Additionally, there was a need to make comparisons of simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands associated with the various Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) alternatives and plans by Pueblo West to discharge treated wastewater into the reservoir. Wastewater plans by Pueblo West are fully independent of the SDS project. This report compares simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands in Pueblo Reservoir resulting from changes in inflow and water quality entering the reservoir, and from changes to withdrawals from the reservoir as projected for the year 2046. Four of the seven EIS alternatives were selected for scenario simulations. The four U.S. Geological Survey simulation scenarios were the No Action scenario (EIS Alternative 1), the Downstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 2), the Upstream Return-Flow scenario (EIS Alternative 4), and the Upstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 7). Additionally, the results of an Existing Conditions scenario (year 2006 demand conditions) were compared to the No Action scenario (projected demands in 2046) to assess changes in water quality over time. All scenario modeling used an external nutrient-decay model to simulate degradation and assimilation of nutrients along the riverine reach upstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Reservoir modeling was conducted using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CE-QUAL-W2 two-dimensional water-quality model. Lake hydrodynamics, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, dissolved solids, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrate, total phosphorus, algal biomass, and total iron were simulated. Two reservoir site locations were selected for comparison. Results of simulations at site 3B were characteristic of a riverine environment in the reservoir, whereas results at site 7B (near the dam) were characteristic of the main body of the reservoir. Simulation results for the epilimnion and hypolimnion at these two sites also were evaluated and compared. The simulation results in the hypolimnion at site 7B were indicative of the water quality leaving the reservoir. Comparisons of the different scenario results were conducted to assess if substantial differences were observed between selected scenarios. Each of the scenarios was simulated for three contiguous years representing a wet, average, and dry annual hydrologic cycle (water years 2000 through 2002). Additionally, each selected simulation scenario was evaluated for differences in direct and cumulative effects on a particular scenario. Direct effects are intended to isolate the future effects of the scenarios. Cumulative effects are intended to evaluate the effects of the scenarios in conjunction with all reasonably foreseeable future activities in the study area. Comparisons between the direct- and cumulative-effects analyses indicated that there were not large differences in the results between most of the simulation scenarios, and, as such, the focus of this report was on results for the direct-effects analysis. Additionally, the differences between simulation results generally were

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2016

Future land-use related water demand in California

Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed (municipal and industrial) and agricultural land use to estimate associated water use demand from 2012 to 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total water use was projected to increase 1.8 billion cubic meters(+4.1%) driven primarily by urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Only if currently mandated 25% reductions in municipal water use are continuously implemented would water demand in 2062 balance to water use levels in 2012. This is the first modeling effort of its kind to examine regional land-use related water demand incorporating historical trends of both developed and agricultural land uses.

California↗
USGS2016

Vegetative response to water availability on the San Carlos Apache Reservation

On the San Carlos Apache Reservation in east-central Arizona, U.S.A., vegetation types such as ponderosa pine forests, pinyon-juniper woodlands, and grasslands have significant ecological, cultural, and economic value for the Tribe. This value extends beyond the tribal lands and across the Western United States. Vegetation across the Southwestern United States is susceptible to drought conditions and fluctuating water availability. Remotely sensed vegetation indices can be used to measure and monitor spatial and temporal vegetative response to fluctuating water availability conditions. We used the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index II (MSAVI 2 ) to measure the condition of three dominant vegetation types (ponderosa pine forest, woodland, and grassland) in response to two fluctuating environmental variables: precipitation and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The study period covered 2002 through 2014 and focused on a region within the San Carlos Apache Reservation. We determined that grassland and woodland had a similar moderate to strong, year-round, positive relationship with precipitation as well as with summer SPEI. This suggests that these vegetation types respond negatively to drought conditions and are more susceptible to initial precipitation deficits. Ponderosa pine forest had a comparatively weaker relationship with monthly precipitation and summer SPEI, indicating that it is more buffered against short-term drought conditions. This research highlights the response of multiple, dominant vegetation types to seasonal and inter-annual water availability. This research demonstrates that multi-temporal remote sensing imagery can be an effective tool for the large scale detection of vegetation response to adverse impacts from climate change and support potential management practices such as increased monitoring and management of drought-affected areas. Different vegetation types displayed various responses to water availability, further highlighting the need for individual management plans for forest and woodland, especially considering the projected drier conditions in the Southwest U.S. and other arid or semi-arid regions around the world.

Arizona↗