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At least 865 records · Page 48Linked to original sources

Geological processes and orchid biogeography with applications to southeast central America

This contribution owes its origins to a paper presentation by Dr. Calloway H. Dodson at the Second International Conference on Neotropical Orchidology held in San José, Costa Rica in May of2003 (Dodson 2003). Dr. Dodson outlined some ofthe reasons to suspect that regional geological fac-tors may play important roles in orchid speciation and biogeography and gave examples from the northwestern South America. He also suggested that evolutionary change in orchid might occur over fairly short time periods, perhaps even as short as decades, centuries or millennia (Dodson 2003, SHK lecture notes). These ideas stimulated the author, a professional earth scientist, to begin thinking about how these exciting ideas could begin to be tested in Costa Rica neighboring and Central American countries, an area that has drawn him to return frequently over the last decade. The present contribution is a proposal for integrating geological observations, such as the chronology of arc volcanic activity in Nicaragua,Costa Rica, and Panama, in hypothesis forming and testing of the geographic distribution of orchids (and possibly other biota). I initially focus on comparisons between orchid inventories on the windward slopes of mountainous regions (elevation > 1000 m)with high rainfall (> 1-2 m) in tropical regions, the so-called tropical cloud forests. These regions represent the tropical pre-montane rain forestto lower montane tropical rain forest life zones of Holdridge(1967) and the montane vegetation zone applied to Costa Rica and Panama by Dressler (1993). An important message of this paper is that such tropical mountainous regions are not necessarily static, but may change in elevation over geologic time due to active tectonic deformation and uplift and that the presence of active volcanism in a mountain range may also introduce additional chemical factors, such as volcanic gases, acid rain, and volcanic soils, and also physical factors, such as interruption of gene flow by explosive eruptions and coverage by their air fall products such as ash (tephra), lava flows, and lahars (volcanic mudflows). Thus over a given geological time interval, forests may be slowly increasing in elevation by tectonic uplift or by the accumulation of volcanic products such as steep-sided strato volcanoes (built from both lavas and tephra), or by down-slope accumulations of lava flows or lahars. Mountains may also lose elevation by erosion or by tectonic subsidence. As we shall see, tropical Central America shows an extraordinarily high level of tectonic and volcanic history that has changed its geography and, by implication, climate, life zones,and likely orchid distribution. My working hypo thesis put forward for testing is that orchid adaptations to these changes may have led to the development of new species and endemism in this region.

Lankesteriana↗

Genetic and demographic criteria for defining population units for conservation: The value of clear messages

In a recent paper on Harlequin Duck (Histrionicus histrionicus) interannual site fidelity (Iverson et al. 2004), we concluded that wintering populations were demographically structured at a finer geographic scale than that at which genetic differentiation was observed and that conservation efforts should recognize this degree of demographic independence. In a critique of our study, Pearce and Talbot (2006) contend that our measures of fidelity were not robust and imply that in the face of "mixed messages" we failed to appreciate the role of genetic data in defining population units. We recognize, as we did in our original paper, that our methods for quantifying site fidelity have some limitations; however, the patterns in our data are consistent with a considerable body of literature indicating high winter site fidelity in Harlequin Ducks. Moreover, we do not consider differences in the scales at which genetic and demographic structure are expressed to be "mixed messages," given the different spatial and temporal scales at which genetic and contemporary demographic processes operate. We emphasize that a lack of genetic differentiation does not necessarily preclude the existence of contemporary demographic structure with relevance for conservation. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

Condor↗

Understanding the value of imperfect science from national estimates of bird mortality from window collisions

The publication of a U.S. estimate of bird–window collisions by Loss et al. is an example of the somewhat contentious approach of using extrapolations to obtain large-scale estimates from small-scale studies. We review the approach by Loss et al. and other authors who have published papers on human-induced avian mortality and describe the drawbacks and advantages to publishing what could be considered imperfect science. The main drawback is the inherent and somewhat unquantifiable bias of using small-scale studies to scale up to a national estimate. The direct benefits include development of new methodologies for creating the estimates, an explicit treatment of known biases with acknowledged uncertainty in the final estimate, and the novel results. Other overarching benefits are that these types of papers are catalysts for improving all aspects of the science of estimates and for policies that must respond to the new information.

Condor↗

The first 50 years of the North American Breeding Bird Survey

The vision of Chandler (Chan) S. Robbins for a continental-scale omnibus survey of breeding birds led to the development of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Chan was uniquely suited to develop the BBS. His position as a government scientist had given him experience with designing and implementing continental-scale surveys, his research background made him an effective advocate of the need for a survey to monitor pesticide effects on birds, and his prominence in the birding community gave him connections to infrastructure—a network of qualified volunteer birders who could conduct roadside surveys with standardized point counts. Having started in the eastern United States and the Atlantic provinces of Canada in 1966, the BBS now provides population change information for ∼546 species in the continental United States and Canada, and recently initiated routes in Mexico promise to greatly expand the areas and species covered by the survey. Although survey protocols have remained unchanged for 50 years, the BBS remains relevant in a changing world. Several papers that follow in this Special Section of The Condor: Ornithological Advances review how the BBS has been applied to conservation assessments, especially in combination with other large-scale survey data. A critical feature of the BBS program is an active research program into field and analytical methods to enhance the quality of the count data and to control for factors that influence detectability. Papers in the Special Section also present advances in BBS analyses that improve the utility of this expanding and sometimes controversial survey. In this Perspective, we introduce the Special Section by reviewing the history of the BBS, describing current analyses, and providing summary trend results for all species, highlighting 3 groups of conservation concern: grassland-breeding birds, aridland-breeding birds, and aerial insectivorous birds.

The Condor↗

The ecology, restoration, and management of southeastern floodplain ecosystems: A synthesis

Floodplain ecosystems of the southeastern United States provide numerous services to society, but hydrologic and geomorphic alterations, agricultural practices, water quality and availability, and urban development continue to challenge restorationists and managers at multiple spatial and temporal scales. These challenges are further exacerbated by tremendous uncertainty regarding climate and land use patterns and natural variability in these systems. The symposium from which the papers in 2009 ensued was organized to provide a critical evaluation of current natural resource restoration and management practices to support the sustainability of floodplain ecosystem functions in the southeastern United States. In this paper we synthesize these concepts and evaluate restoration and conservation techniques in light of our understanding of these ecosystems. We also discuss current and future challenges and attempt to identify new approaches that may facilitate the long-term sustainability of southeastern floodplain systems. We conclude that integration of disciplines and approaches is necessary to meet the floodplain conservation challenges of the coming century. Integration will not only include purposeful dialogue between interdisciplinary natural resource professionals, but it also is necessary to sincerely engage the public about goals, objectives, and desirable outcomes of floodplain ecosystem restoration.

Southeastern Floodplain systems↗

Birds of the Baja California Peninsula: Status, distribution, and taxonomy

Birds of the Baja California Peninsula: Status, Distribution, and Taxonomy. By Richard A. Erickson and Steve N. G. Howell (Eds.). American Birding Association Monographs in Field Ornithology No. 3, Colorado Springs, Colorado. 2001: 261 pp. ISBN: 1878788396. $39.95 (paper). This volume is a collection of eight papers and five appendices on the status and distribution of the birds of Baja California. In the preface, the editors lament the end of an era of "frontier" birding in Baja California brought on by the publication of this volume. While discoveries of new species are certain to decline with time, I suspect that interest in birding and ornithology in Baja California will be enhanced by the information contained in this book. Perhaps the "frontier" era that Erickson and Howell lament the end of is the unbirded, wide open spaces and the chance for making new discoveries.

Baja California Peninsula↗

Review of the life history and conservation of federally endangered plant species of the Lower Rio Grande Valley, Texas, U.S.A.

This review aims to summarize information critical to the conservation of the federally listed endangered species of South Texas, which occur along the border of Texas and Mexico. This paper describes the characteristics, habitat, population status, distribution, life history, threats, and restoration of endangered plant species of the Lower Rio Grande Valley, Texas, which includes Cameron, Willacy, Hildago, and Starr County. Seven federally listed species are considered including Ambrosia cheiranthifolia, Asclepias prostrata, Astrophytum asterias, Ayenia limitaris, Manihot walkerae, Lesquerella thamnophila (syn. Physaria thamnophila), and Thymophylla tephroleuca. An eighth species, Physostegia correllii is under consideration for federal listing by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. This paper assembles information on the background, biological status, major threats, and conservation to aid managers and the scientific community in restoring and managing these species.

Texas↗

Local magnitude determinations for intermountain seismic belt earthquakes from broadband digital data

The University of Utah Seismograph Stations (UUSS) earthquake catalogs for the Utah and Yellowstone National Park regions contain two types of size measurements: local magnitude (ML) and coda magnitude (MC), which is calibrated against ML. From 1962 through 1993, UUSS calculated ML values for southern and central Intermountain Seismic Belt earthquakes using maximum peak-to-peak (p-p) amplitudes on paper records from one to five Wood-Anderson (W-A) seismographs in Utah. For ML determinations of earthquakes since 1994, UUSS has utilized synthetic W-A seismograms from U.S. National Seismic Network and UUSS broadband digital telemetry stations in the region, which numbered 23 by the end of our study period on 30 June 2002. This change has greatly increased the percentage of earthquakes for which ML can be determined. It is now possible to determine ML for all M ???3 earthquakes in the Utah and Yellowstone regions and earthquakes as small as M <1 in some areas. To maintain continuity in the magnitudes in the UUSS earthquake catalogs, we determined empirical ML station corrections that minimize differences between MLs calculated from paper and synthetic W-A records. Application of these station corrections, in combination with distance corrections from Richter (1958) which have been in use at UUSS since 1962, produces ML values that do not show any significant distance dependence. ML determinations for the Utah and Yellowstone regions for 1981-2002 using our station corrections and Richter's distance corrections have provided a reliable data set for recalibrating the MC scales for these regions. Our revised ML values are consistent with available moment magnitude determinations for Intermountain Seismic Belt earthquakes. To facilitate automatic ML measurements, we analyzed the distribution of the times of maximum p-p amplitudes in synthetic W-A records. A 30-sec time window for maximum amplitudes, beginning 5 sec before the predicted Sg time, encompasses 95% of the maximum p-p amplitudes. In our judgment, this time window represents a good compromise between maximizing the chances of capturing the maximum amplitude and minimizing the risk of including other seismic events.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Conditional spectrum computation incorporating multiple causal earthquakes and ground-motion prediction models

The conditional spectrum (CS) is a target spectrum (with conditional mean and conditional standard deviation) that links seismic hazard information with ground-motion selection for nonlinear dynamic analysis. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) estimates the ground-motion hazard by incorporating the aleatory uncertainties in all earthquake scenarios and resulting ground motions, as well as the epistemic uncertainties in ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) and seismic source models. Typical CS calculations to date are produced for a single earthquake scenario using a single GMPM, but more precise use requires consideration of at least multiple causal earthquakes and multiple GMPMs that are often considered in a PSHA computation. This paper presents the mathematics underlying these more precise CS calculations. Despite requiring more effort to compute than approximate calculations using a single causal earthquake and GMPM, the proposed approach produces an exact output that has a theoretical basis. To demonstrate the results of this approach and compare the exact and approximate calculations, several example calculations are performed for real sites in the western United States. The results also provide some insights regarding the circumstances under which approximate results are likely to closely match more exact results. To facilitate these more precise calculations for real applications, the exact CS calculations can now be performed for real sites in the United States using new deaggregation features in the U.S. Geological Survey hazard mapping tools. Details regarding this implementation are discussed in this paper.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Validation of ground-motion simulations for historical events using SDoF systems

The study presented in this paper is among the first in a series of studies toward the engineering validation of the hybrid broadband ground‐motion simulation methodology by Graves and Pitarka (2010). This paper provides a statistical comparison between seismic demands of single degree of freedom (SDoF) systems subjected to past events using simulations and actual recordings. A number of SDoF systems are selected considering the following: (1) 16 oscillation periods between 0.1 and 6 s; (2) elastic case and four nonlinearity levels, from mildly inelastic to severely inelastic systems; and (3) two hysteretic behaviors, in particular, nondegrading–nonevolutionary and degrading–evolutionary. Demand spectra are derived in terms of peak and cyclic response, as well as their statistics for four historical earthquakes: 1979 M w 6.5 Imperial Valley, 1989 M w 6.8 Loma Prieta, 1992 M w 7.2 Landers, and 1994 M w 6.7 Northridge.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective

We articulate a scientific vision and roadmap for the development of improved Earthquake Rupture Forecast models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic hazard and risk analysis. One primary future objective is to provide fully time-dependent models that include both elastic rebound and spatiotemporal clustering nationwide, which is particularly important for shorter-term hazard and risk considerations (e.g., earthquake insurance products). We also discuss the importance and perennial challenges associated with quantifying epistemic uncertainties, including those associated with deformation-model slip rates, un-quantified sampling errors with respect to off-fault seismicity, and any spatial covariances. The need for more physics-based approaches is also emphasized, as is the benefit of adding model valuation (quantifying usefulness) to our verification and validation protocols. Given the multidisciplinary and system-level nature of this activity, modular design is critical. Future updates will also draw from best-available science by both the United States Geological Survey and the external community. The primary goal of this paper is to highlight plans that guide research and facilitate community engagement with model development, especially with respect to lowering the entry barrier for early career scientists and engineers. The paper is written so readers can focus on the sections that interest them most (see table of contents), with the Introduction and Discussion providing a stand-alone overview and summary.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Casual instrument corrections for short-period and broadband seismometers

Of all the filters applied to recordings of seismic waves, which include source, path, and site effects, the one we know most precisely is the instrument filter. Therefore, it behooves seismologists to accurately remove the effect of the instrument from raw seismograms. Applying instrument corrections allows analysis of the seismogram in terms of physical units (e.g., displacement or particle velocity of the Earth’s surface) instead of the output of the instrument (e.g., digital counts). The instrument correction can be considered the most fundamental processing step in seismology since it relates the raw data to an observable quantity of interest to seismologists. Complicating matters is the fact that, in practice, the term “instrument correction” refers to more than simply the seismometer. The instrument correction compensates for the complete recording system including the seismometer, telemetry, digitizer, and any anti‐alias filters. Knowledge of all these components is necessary to perform an accurate instrument correction. The subject of instrument corrections has been covered extensively in the literature (Seidl, 1980; Scherbaum, 1996). However, the prospect of applying instrument corrections still evokes angst among many seismologists—the authors of this paper included. There may be several reasons for this. For instance, the seminal paper by Seidl (1980) exists in a journal that is not currently available in electronic format and cannot be accessed online. Also, a standard method for applying instrument corrections involves the programs TRANSFER and EVALRESP in the Seismic Analysis Code (SAC) package (Goldstein et al. , 2003). The exact mathematical methods implemented in these codes are not thoroughly described in the documentation accompanying SAC.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Refinements to the Graves and Pitarka (2010) Broadband Ground Motion Simulation Method

This brief article describes refinements to the Graves and Pitarka (2010) broadband ground motion simulation methodology (GP2010 hereafter) that have been implemented in version 14.3 of the SCEC Broadband Platform (BBP). The updated version of our method on the current SCEC BBP is referred to as GP14.3. Our simulation technique is a hybrid approach that combines low-­‐frequency and high-­‐frequency motions computed with different methods into a single broadband response. The separate low-­‐ and high-­‐frequency components have traditionally been called “deterministic” and “stochastic”, respectively; however, this nomenclature is an oversimplification. In reality, the low-­‐frequency approach includes many stochastic elements, and likewise, the high-­‐frequency approach includes many deterministic elements (e.g., Pulido and Kubo, 2004; Hartzell et al., 2005; Liu et al., 2006; Frankel, 2009; Graves and Pitarka, 2010; Mai et al., 2010). While the traditional terminology will likely remain in use by the broader modeling community, in this paper we will refer to these using the generic terminology “low-­‐frequency” and “high-­‐ frequency” approaches. Furthermore, one of the primary goals in refining our methodology is to provide a smoother and more consistent transition between the low-­‐ and high-­‐ frequency calculations, with the ultimate objective being the development of a single unified modeling approach that can be applied over a broad frequency band. GP2010 was validated by modeling recorded strong motions from four California earthquakes. While the method performed well overall, several issues were identified including the tendency to over-­‐predict the level of longer period (2-­‐5 sec) motions and the effects of rupture directivity. The refinements incorporated in GP14.3 are aimed at addressing these issues with application to the simulation of earthquakes in Western US (WUS). These refinements include the addition of a deep weak zone (details in following section) to the rupture characterization and allowing perturbations in the correlation of rise time and rupture speed with the specified slip distribution. Additionally, we have extended the parameterization of GP14.3 so that it is also applicable for simulating Eastern North America (ENA) earthquakes. This work has been guided by the comprehensive set of validation studies described in Goulet and Abrahamson (2014) and Dreger et al. (2014). The GP14.3 method shows improved performance relative to GP2010, and we direct the interested reader to Dreger et al. (2014) for a detailed assessment of the current methodology. In this paper, we concentrate on describing the modifications in more detail, and also discussing additional refinements that are currently being developed.

California↗

Comparison of co-recorded analog and digital systems for characterization of responses and uncertainties

One of the most prominent challenges related to legacy seismic data is determining how these data can be appropriately used in modern research applications. The wide variety of instrumentation used in the analog era, the format of recording on paper wrapped around a helicorder drum, and limited metadata information introduces ambiguities that are not typical of modern digital data. Therefore, techniques must be developed to help characterize uncertainties in legacy data. This article presents an analysis that compares corecorded signals from two instruments—a Trillium Compact or Press‐Ewing (PE) seismometer for sensing ground motion and two recording systems: a modern Q330 digitizer or heated‐stylus system. Analyses of the recordings in both time and frequency domains indicate time uncertainty on the order of one second, identify a flat response in a 10–60 s band for the PE and drum recorder, and highlight how specific features of scans and paper seismograms (e.g., repeated portions of scans and line thickness) can cause timing jumps or reduced trace amplitude.

Seismological Research Letters↗

The Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT): Advancing understanding of Cascadia's earthquake hazards

The Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) is capable of producing large megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis, posing significant risks to the Pacific Northwest. This paper examines the seismic characteristics of the CSZ, including its offshore coupling, sparse seismicity, and a complex paleoseismic record. While recent advances in geophysical methods and data collection have improved our understanding of subduction zone processes, important uncertainties remain regarding rupture dynamics, ground shaking, and tsunami impacts. The Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT) has been established to address these challenges through coordinated research, education, and community engagement. By integrating scientific studies, fostering collaboration, and leveraging new technologies, CRESCENT seeks to improve hazard assessment and resilience in the region. This paper outlines the primary challenges and opportunities in advancing subduction zone science and enhancing societal preparedness for future CSZ events.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Preliminary report on the 16 October 1999 M 7.1 Hector mine, California, earthquake

The M w 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake occurred at 9:46 GMT on 16 October 1999. The event caused minimal damage because it was located in a remote, sparsely populated part of the Mojave Desert, approximately 47 miles east-southeast of Barstow, with epicentral coordinates 34.59°N 116.27°W and a hypocentral depth of 5 ± 3 km. Twelve foreshocks, M 1.9-3.8, preceded the mainshock during the previous twelve hours. All of these events were located close to the hypocenter of the mainshock. The Hector Mine earthquake occurred within the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ). By virtue of its remote location, the societal impact of the Hector Mine earthquake was, fortunately, minimal in spite of the event's appreciable size. The ECSZ is characterized by high seismicity, a high tectonic strain rate, and a broad, distributed zone of north-northwest-trending faults (ECSZ; Figure 1 ; Dokka and Travis, 1990 ; Sauber et al., 1986 ; Sauber et al., 1994 ; Sieh et al., 1993 ). Data regarding the slip rates of faults within the ECSZ suggest that on the order of 15% of the Pacific-North American plate motion occurs along this zone ( Sauber et al., 1986 ; Wesnousky, 1986 ). Most of the faults in the ECSZ have low slip rates and long repeat times for major earthquakes, on the order of several thousands to tens of thousands of years. The occurrence of the Hector Mine earthquake within seven years and only about 30 km east of the 1992 M w 7.3 Landers earthquake suggests that the closely spaced surface faults in the ECSZ are mechanically related. The Hector Mine event involved rupture on two previously mapped fault zones—the Bullion Fault and an unnamed, more northerly-trending fault that is informally referred to in this paper as the Lavic Lake Fault (Dibblee, 1966 , 1967a , b ). Traces of the Bullion Fault exhibit evidence of Holocene displacement and were zoned as active in 1988 under California's Mquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act ( Hart and Bryant, 1997 ). The pattern of rupture along more than one named fault was also observed from the 1992 Landers earthquake ( Hauksson et al., 1993 ; Sieh et al., 1994). Much of the fault zone that produced the Hector Mine earthquake had been buried by relatively young stream deposits, and the fault scarps in bedrock have a subdued morphology. It appears that these faults have not experienced significant offset for perhaps 10,000 years or more ( Hart, 1987 ). Planned future investigations will refine the age of the last event on these faults. The portion of the Lavic Lake Fault that ruptured between the northern end of the Bullion Mountains and Lavic Lake had not previously been mapped. However, our field investigations have identified ancient, subdued fault scarps along portions of the 1999 rupture zone in this area. It thus appears that the entire segment of the Lavic Lake Fault that was involved in the 1999 event had ruptured in the past. As is typical for most faults within the Eastern California Shear Zone, the rate of movement along the Lavic Lake Fault may be quite slow (<1 mm/yr) and should produce earthquakes only infrequently. This event is a reminder that faults that have ruptured in late Quaternary time, but that lack evidence of Holocene displacement, can still produce earthquakes in this low-slip-rate tectonic setting. Additionally, the Hector Mine earthquake is noteworthy for a couple of other reasons. First, it clearly produced triggered seismicity over much of southern California, from the rupture zone toward the south-southwest in particular. Second, as we will discuss, the event may provide new data and insight into recently developed paradigms concerning earthquake interactions and the role of static stress changes. Questions such as these will, of course, be the subject of extensive detailed analyses in years to come. Fortunately, the Hector Mine sequence will provide one of the best data sets obtained to date for a significant earthquake in the United States. Because it occurred when major upgrades to both the regional seismic network (TriNet) and the regional geodetic network (SCIGN) were well underway, the Earth science community will have abundant high-quality data with which to explore the important and interesting questions that have been raised. In this paper, we present and discuss the basic data and preliminary results from the Hector Mine earthquake.

California↗

Preliminary analysis of strong-motion recordings from the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California earthquake

The 2004 M w 6.0 Parkfield earthquake of 28 September 2004 occurred on the San Andreas Fault near the small town of Parkfield in central California. As a result of a widely accepted likelihood of an earthquake in the area, a large number of strong-motion stations and other types of seismic stations had been deployed in the area. The Parkfield earthquake occurred along the same segment of the San Andreas Fault that ruptured during the 1966 Parkfield earthquake, resulting in a unique set of strong-motion measurements by arrays designed specifically for the purpose of recording an event along this fault segment. The most extensive and dense set of near-fault strong-motion recordings yet obtained for any earthquake in California was obtained in this event. This paper provides a detailed description of the arrays and the resultant strong-motion measurements of the mainshock, as well as preliminary observations. We also invite interested parties to participate in the Turkey Flat blind prediction experiment, described later in the paper. More general preliminary seismological results for this earthquake can be found in Langbein et al. ( 2005 , this issue).

California↗

Comment on "How can seismic hazard around the New Madrid seismic zone be similar to that in California?" by Arthur Frankel

A recent paper in the September/October 2004 issue of Seismological Research Letters, “How Can Seismic Hazard around the New Madrid Seismic Zone Be Similar to That in California?”, by Arthur Frankel, concludes “I have demonstrated how probabilistic seismic hazard for New Madrid can be greater than that at San Francisco at low probabilities for PGA and similar at low probabilities for 5 Hz S.A. By low probabilities, I mean annual probabilities less than the reciprocal of the return time of the New Madrid characteristic source, that is, 1/500. This is a consequence of the higher ground motions, for PGA and 5 Hz S.A. (and other high-frequency measures), expected for large New Madrid characteristic earthquakes compared to San Andreas earthquakes with similar magnitudes.” His conclusion is confusing and not necessarily true. The fundamental differences in assessing seismic hazard between San Francisco and the New Madrid seismic zone are the uncertainties, especially the uncertainties associated with the ground-motion attenuation relationship. The larger ground-motion uncertainties in both the median and its standard deviation derive a higher hazard in the New Madrid area. The larger standard deviation, in particular, derives a higher hazard at low annual probabilities of exceedance. Moreover, Frankel also equated the hazard (annual probability of exceedance) defined in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) with the average recurrence rate defined in engineering risk analysis. There is a fundamental difference in defining risk between PSHA and the engineering risk analysis. The risks—10%, 5%, and 2% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 years—defined in PSHA are not interchangeable with those defined in engineering risk analysis. Hence, though Frankel's stated intention was to improve understanding of PSHA among nonpractitioners, the paper may cause more confusion and problems for users of the U.S. Geological Survey national seismic hazard maps.

Seismological Research Letters↗