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At least 865 records · Page 48Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Restoration of contaminated ecosystems: adaptive management in a changing climate

Three case studies illustrate how adaptive management (AM) has been used in ecological restorations that involve contaminants. Contaminants addressed include mercury, selenium, and contaminants and physical disturbances delivered to streams by urban stormwater runoff. All three cases emphasize the importance of broad stakeholder input early and consistently throughout decision analysis for AM. Risk of contaminant exposure provided input to the decision analyses (e.g. selenium exposure to endangered razorback suckers, Stewart Lake; multiple contaminants in urban stormwater runoff, Melbourne) and was balanced with the protection of resources critical for a desired future state (e.g. preservation old growth trees, South River). Monitoring also played a critical role in the ability to conduct the decision analyses necessary for AM plans. For example, newer technologies in the Melbourne case provided a testable situation where contaminant concentrations and flow disturbance were reduced to support a return to good ecological condition. In at least one case (Stewart Lake), long-term monitoring data are being used to document the potential effects of climate change on a restoration trajectory. Decision analysis formalized the process by which stakeholders arrived at the priorities for the sites, which together constituted the desired future condition towards which each restoration is aimed. Alternative models were developed that described in mechanistic terms how restoration can influence the system towards the desired future condition. Including known and anticipated effects of future climate scenarios in these models will make them robust to the long-term exposure and effects of contaminants in restored ecosystems.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2021

Biotic and abiotic treatments as a bet-hedging approach to restoring plant communities and soil functions

Two related concepts in restoration ecology include the relative interchangeability of biotic and abiotic restoration treatments for initiating recovery and bet hedging using multiple restoration approaches to increase the likelihood of favorable restoration outcomes. We used these concepts as a framework to implement a factorial experiment including biotic (outplanting greenhouse-grown individuals of three perennial species) and abiotic treatments (constructing microtopography or vertical mulch consisting of upright, dead plant material). These treatments were designed to stimulate native plant recruitment and reverse soil degradation at four disturbed sites in the Sonoran Desert, U.S.A. The first growing season after the restoration treatments was the driest of the last 47 years, and 100% of outplants died. While the biotic treatment failed, the vertical mulch abiotic treatment increased native shrub seedling cover at the driest site and reversed soil loss across sites by increasing soil accumulation by 6× to 2 cm/year. Results revealed that (1) inexpensive, minimal-input abiotic treatments outperformed resource-intensive biotic treatments; (2) the restoration effort withstood the total failure of a major component (outplanting) to nevertheless achieve key restoration benefits within 2–3 growing seasons; and (3) incorporating multiple treatment types served as a bet-hedging approach to buffer against treatment failures. Integrating minimal-input abiotic treatments in restoration warrants consideration given their low cost and bet-hedging potential.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2023

Satellite remote sensing of river discharge: A framework for assessing the accuracy of discharge estimates made from satellite remote sensing observations

This research presents an evaluation of the accuracy and uncertainty of estimates of river discharge made using satellite observed data sources as input to a modified form of Manning’s equation. Conventional U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gaging station data and in-situ measurements of width, depth, height, slope, discharge, and velocity from 30 USGS gage sites were used as ground-truth to assess accuracy. This study explores accuracy in relation to the amount of ground truth information available, the number of calibration points available, and the accuracy of the input data. This research indicates that remotely sensed discharge estimates associated with the modified Manning equation may be expected to have an uncertainty in range of 10% overall given a sufficient number of calibration points. The uncertainty associated with the modified Manning algorithm increased markedly for depths <3 meters (m) and for discharges <1000 cubic meters per second (m 3 / s) for many rivers after calibration. Rivers that exhibit (1) a wide range of flow conditions, (2) a significant number of dams in the watershed and along the channel, and (3) a high baseflow index are more likely to have relatively large errors overall and particularly at the low end of the streamflow range. Uncertainty in remotely sensed measurements of water-surface elevation (WSE) and width in the expected range (WSE, + / − 10 cm; Width, + / − 15 m) introduces uncertainty in the discharge estimates on the order of 10% and is greatest at the low end of discharge as rivers get shallower and narrower. As WSE and width measurement uncertainty increases, discharge uncertainty increases accordingly. In general, the observation errors are greater than the errors associated with the algorithm for a well-calibrated model (e.g., 20 calibration points).

Journal of Applied Remote Sensing↗

USGS2001

Landsat 7 thermal-IR image sharpening using an artificial neural network and sensor model

The enhanced thematic mapper (plus) (ETM+) instrument on Landsat 7 shares the same basic design as the TM sensors on Landsats 4 and 5, with some significant improvements. In common are six multispectral bands with a 30-m ground-projected instantaneous field of view (GIFOV). However, the thermaL-IR (TIR) band now has a 60-m GIFOV, instead of 120-m. Also, a 15-m panchromatic band has been added. The artificial neural network (NN) image sharpening method described here uses data from the higher spatial resolution ETM+ bands to enhance (sharpen) the spatial resolution of the TIR imagery. It is based on an assumed correlation over multiple scales of resolution, between image edge contrast patterns in the TIR band and several other spectral bands. A multilayer, feedforward NN is trained to approximate TIR data at 60m, given degraded (from 30-m to 60-m) spatial resolution input from spectral bands 7, 5, and 2. After training, the NN output for full-resolution input generates an approximation of a TIR image at 30-m resolution. Two methods are used to degrade the spatial resolution of the imagery used for NN training, and the corresponding sharpening results are compared. One degradation method uses a published sensor transfer function (TF) for Landsat 5 to simulate sensor coarser resolution imagery from higher resolution imagery. For comparison, the second degradation method is simply Gaussian low pass filtering and subsampling, wherein the Gaussian filter approximates the full width at half maximum amplitude characteristics of the TF-based spatial filter. Two fixed-size NNs (that is, number of weights and processing elements) were trained separately with the degraded resolution data, and the sharpening results compared. The comparison evaluates the relative influence of the degradation technique employed and whether or not it is desirable to incorporate a sensor TF model. Preliminary results indicate some improvements for the sensor model-based technique. Further evaluation using a higher resolution reference image and strict application of sensor model to data is recommended.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

Groundwater residence time estimates obscured by anthropogenic carbonate

Groundwater is an important source of drinking and irrigation water. Dating groundwater informs its vulnerability to contamination and aids in calibrating flow models. Here, we report measurements of multiple age tracers ( 14 C, 3 H, 39 Ar, and 85 Kr) and parameters relevant to dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from 17 wells in California’s San Joaquin Valley (SJV), an agricultural region that is heavily reliant on groundwater. We find evidence for a major mid-20th century shift in groundwater DIC input from mostly closed- to mostly open-system carbonate dissolution, which we suggest is driven by input of anthropogenic carbonate soil amendments. Crucially, enhanced open-system dissolution, in which DIC equilibrates with soil CO 2 , fundamentally affects the initial 14 C activity of recently recharged groundwater. Conventional 14 C dating of deeper SJV groundwater, assuming an open system, substantially overestimates residence time and thereby underestimates susceptibility to modern contamination. Because carbonate soil amendments are ubiquitous, other groundwater-reliant agricultural regions may be similarly affected.

California↗

USGS2015

Natural soil reservoirs for human pathogenic and fecal indicator bacteria

Soils receive inputs of human pathogenic and indicator bacteria through land application of animal manures or sewage sludge, and inputs by wildlife. Soil is an extremely heterogeneous substrate and contains meso- and macrofauna that may be reservoirs for bacteria of human health concern. The ability to detect and quantify bacteria of human health concern is important in risk assessments and in evaluating the efficacy of agricultural soil management practices that are protective of crop quality and protective of adjacent water resources. The present chapter describes the distribution of selected Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria in soils. Methods for detecting and quantifying soilborne bacteria including extraction, enrichment using immunomagnetic capture, culturing, molecular detection and deep sequencing of metagenomic DNA to detect pathogens are overviewed. Methods for strain phenotypic and genotypic characterization are presented, as well as how comparison with clinical isolates can inform the potential for human health risk.

Book chapter↗

USGS2003

The early Mesozoic Birdsboro central Atlantic margin basin in the Mid-Atlantic region, eastern United States

The early Mesozoic Birdsboro basin (new name) was a single, elongate depositional trough in the present Mid-Atlantic area of the eastern United States, extending north-eastward from central Virginia across Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey into southern New York. What now remains after erosion comprises the Barboursville, Culpeper, Gettysburg, and Newark remnants. Some 7?? km of late Triassic and early Jurassic continental sediments of varying provenances entered and spread across in the Birdsboro basin in several depositional environments. The five resulting sedimentary lithosomes include feldspathic sandstone, quartzose sandstone, red silty mudstone, gray shale, and fanglomerate. The extensive interbedding, intertonguing, and lateral gradation among these lithosomes suggest that they were contemporary and closely interrelated. The feldspathic sandstone lithosome contains sediment with a southeastern provenance that accumulated in a bajada environment extending the length of the southeastern side of the basin. Sediment in the quartzose sandstone lithosome had a northwestern provenance-the coarse-grained fraction formed regional alluvial fans at the mouths of four major input centers. The finer-grained fraction was deposited in the distal reaches of these fans and in the playa environments in the interfan areas; this fraction formed the red silty mudstone lithosome. Gray/black shales and argillites of the gray shale lithosome accumulated in lacustrine environments in the interfan areas. The fanglomerate lithosome comprises numerous small, lobate deposits of poorly sorted sediment along both basin margins. The location and time of activity of the northwest input centers largely determined the distribution and areal extent of the various depositional environments and consequent lithosome along the length and across the width of the basin. The Birdsboro basin was deformed (tilted, faulted, and folded) sometime after the deposition of the youngest preserved rocks (early Sinemurian). The deformation varied along the length of the basin, producing differences in the amount of tilting, structural elevation, and subsequent erosion. The present erosional remnants create the illusion of four originally separate depositional basins.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS2008

Modeling rainfall conditions for shallow landsliding in Seattle, Washington

We describe the results from an application of a distributed, transient infiltration–slope-stability model for an 18 km 2 area of southwestern Seattle, Washington, USA. The model (TRIGRS) combines an infinite slope-stability calculation and an analytic, one-dimensional solution for pore-pressure diffusion in a soil layer of finite depth in response to time-varying rainfall. The transient solution for pore-pressure response can be superposed on any steady-state groundwater-flow field that is consistent with model assumptions. Applied over digital topography, the model computes a factor of safety for each grid cell at any time during a rainstorm. Input variables may vary from cell to cell, and the rainfall rate can vary in both space and time. For Seattle, topographic slope derived from an airborne laser swath mapping (ALSM)–based 3 m digital elevation model (DEM), maps of soil and water-table depths derived from geotechnical borings, and hourly rainfall intensities were used as model inputs. Material strength and hydraulic properties used in the model were determined from field and laboratory measurements, and a tension-saturated initial condition was assumed. Results are given in terms of a destabilizing intensity and duration of rainfall, and they were evaluated by comparing the locations of 212 historical landslides with the area mapped as potentially unstable. Because the equations of groundwater flow are explicitly solved with respect to time, the results from TRIGRS simulations can be portrayed quantitatively to assess the potential landslide hazard based on rainfall conditions.

Washington↗

USGS2009

Paleomagnetism and environmental magnetism of GLAD800 sediment cores from Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho

A ???220,000-year record recovered in a 120-m-long sediment core from Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho, provides an opportunity to reconstruct climate change in the Great Basin and compare it with global climate records. Paleomagnetic data exhibit a geomagnetic feature that possibly occurred during the Laschamp excursion (ca. 40 ka). Although the feature does not exhibit excursional behavior (???40?? departure from the expected value), it might provide an additional age constraint for the sequence. Temporal changes in salinity, which are likely related to changes in freshwater input (mainly through the Bear River) or evaporation, are indicated by variations in mineral magnetic properties. These changes are represented by intervals with preserved detrital Fe-oxide minerals and with varying degrees of diagenetic alteration, including sulfidization. On the basis of these changes, the Bear Lake sequence is divided into seven mineral magnetic zones. The differing magnetic mineralogies among these zones reflect changes in deposition, preservation, and formation of magnetic phases related to factors such as lake level, river input, and water chemistry. The occurrence of greigite and pyrite in the lake sediments corresponds to periods of higher salinity. Pyrite is most abundant in intervals of highest salinity, suggesting that the extent of sulfidization is limited by the availability of SO 4 2- . During MIS 2 (zone II), Bear Lake transgressed to capture the Bear River, resulting in deposition of glacially derived hematite-rich detritus from the Uinta Mountains. Millennial-scale variations in the hematite content of Bear Lake sediments during the last glacial maximum (zone II) resemble Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) oscillations and Heinrich events (within dating uncertainties), suggesting that the influence of millennial-scale climate oscillations can extend beyond the North Atlantic and influence climate of the Great Basin. The magnetic mineralogy of zones IV-VII (MIS 5, 6, and 7) indicates varying degrees of post-depositional alteration between cold and warm substages, with greigite forming in fresher conditions and pyrite in the more saline conditions. Copyright ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗

USGS2009

Coarse-grained sediment delivery and distribution in the Holocene Santa Monica Basin, California: Implications for evaluating source-to-sink flux at millennial time scales

Utilizing accumulations of coarse-grained terrigenous sediment from deep-marine basins to evaluate the relative contributions of and history of controls on sediment flux through a source-to-sink system has been difficult as a result of limited knowledge of event timing. In this study, six new radiocarbon ( 14 C) dates are integrated with five previously published dates that have been recalibrated from a 12.5-m-thick turbidite section from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1015 in Santa Monica Basin, offshore California. This borehole is tied to high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles that cover an 1100 km 2 area of the middle and lower Hueneme submarine fan and most of the basin plain. The resulting stratigraphic framework provides the highest temporal resolution for a thick-bedded Holocene turbidite succession to date, permitting an evaluation of source-to-sink controls at millennial (1000 yr) scales. The depositional history from 7 ka to present indicates that the recurrence interval for large turbidity-current events is relatively constant (300-360 yr), but the volume of sediment deposited on the fan and in the basin plain has increased by a factor of 2 over this period. Moreover, the amount of sand per event on the basin plain during the same interval has increased by a factor of 7. Maps of sediment distribution derived from correlation of seismic-reflection profiles indicate that this trend cannot be attributed exclusively to autogenic processes (e.g., progradation of depocenters). The observed variability in sediment accumulation rates is thus largely controlled by allogenic factors, including: (1) increased discharge of Santa Clara River as a result of increased magnitude and frequency of El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events from ca. 2 ka to present, (2) an apparent change in routing of coarse-grained sediment within the staging area at ca. 3 ka (i.e., from direct river input to indirect, littoral cell input into Hueneme submarine canyon), and (3) decreasing rates of sea-level rise (i.e., rate of rise slowed considerably by ca. 3 ka). The Holocene history of the Santa Clara River-Santa Monica Basin source-to-sink system demonstrates the ways in which varying sediment flux and changes in dispersal pathways affect the basinal stratigraphic record. ?? 2009 Geological Society of America.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS2007

Time, space, and composition relations among northern Nevada intrusive rocks and their metallogenic implications

Northern Nevada contains &sim;360 igneous intrusions subequally distributed among three age groups: middle Tertiary, Cretaceous, and Jurassic. These intrusions are dominantly granodiorite and monzogranite, although some are more mafic. Major-oxide and trace-element compositions of intrusion age groups are remarkably similar, forming compositional arrays that are continuous, overlapping, and essentially indistinguishable. Within each age group, compositional diversity is controlled by a combination of fractional crystallization and two-component mixing. Mafic intrusions represent mixing of mantle-derived magma and assimilated continental crust, whereas intermediate to felsic intrusions evolved by fractional crystallization. Several petrologic parameters suggest that the northern Nevada intrusion age groups formed in a variety of subduction-related, magmatic arc settings: Jurassic intrusions were likely formed during backarc, slab-window magmatism related to breakoff of the Mezcalera plate; Cretaceous magmatism was related to rapid, shallow subduction of the Farallon plate and consequent inboard migration of arc magmatism; and Tertiary magmatism initially swept southward into northern Nevada in response to foundering of the Farallon plate and was followed by voluminous Miocene bimodal magmatism associated with backarc continental rifting. Nearly 3000 hydrothermal mineral deposits (many only small uneconomic occurrences), of diverse size and type, are spatially and (or) genetically associated with northern Nevada intrusions; significantly, the largest and most important deposits are aligned along prominent mineral-deposit trends. Because northern Nevada is a globally significant metallogenic province, determining whether age, modal composition, and geochemical features of associated intrusive rocks discriminate productive intrusions is important. Mineral-deposit types, including W vein and skarn, polymetallic vein, distal disseminated Au-Ag, porphyry Cu-Mo-W-Au, and epithermal Ag-Au deposits, all spatially and genetically associated with intrusions and known to involve magmatic inputs, are emphasized in this analysis. In addition, although evidence for a direct magmatic input, other than heat, is scarce for Carlin-type gold deposit formation, this deposit type was included because of its economic significance. Consequently, intrusions along mineral-deposit trends, in particular those associated with the largest and economically most significant mineral deposits, were a focus of the investigation. Importantly, modal composition, age, and geochemical characteristics of intrusions associated with large mineral deposits along the trends, are indistinguishable from non-mineralized intrusions in northern Nevada and thus do not identify intrusions associated with significant deposits. Moreover, intrusion age and composition show little correlation with mineral-deposit type, abundance, and size. Given the lack of diagnostic characteristics for intrusions associated with deposits, it is uncertain whether age, modal composition, and geochemical data can identify intrusions associated with mineral deposits. These findings suggest that associations between northern Nevada intrusions and mineral deposits reflect superimposition of many geologic factors, none of which was solely responsible for mineral-deposit formation. These factors might include intrusion size, efficiency of fluid and metal extraction from magma, prevailing redox and sulfidation conditions, or derivation of metals and ligands from host rocks and groundwater. The abundance and diversity of mineral deposits in northern Nevada may partly reflect geochemical inheritance, for example, along the mineral trends rather than the influence of petrologically unique magma or associated fluids.

Nevada↗

USGS2015

Ignimbrites to batholiths: integrating perspectives from geological, geophysical, and geochronological data

Multistage histories of incremental accumulation, fractionation, and solidification during construction of large subvolcanic magma bodies that remained sufficiently liquid to erupt are recorded by Tertiary ignimbrites, source calderas, and granitoid intrusions associated with large gravity lows at the Southern Rocky Mountain volcanic field (SRMVF). Geophysical data combined with geological constraints and comparisons with tilted plutons and magmatic-arc sections elsewhere are consistent with the presence of vertically extensive (>20 km) intermediate to silicic batholiths (with intrusive:extrusive ratios of 10:1 or greater) beneath the major SRMVF volcanic loci (Sawatch, San Juan, Questa-Latir). Isotopic data require involvement of voluminous mantle-derived mafic magmas on a scale equal to or greater than that of the intermediate to silicic volcanic and plutonic rocks. Early waxing-stage intrusions (35–30 Ma) that fed intermediate-composition central volcanoes of the San Juan locus are more widespread than the geophysically defined batholith; these likely heated and processed the crust, preparatory for ignimbrite volcanism (32–27 Ma) and large-scale upper-crustal batholith growth. Age and compositional similarities indicate that SRMVF ignimbrites and granitic intrusions are closely related, but the extent to which the plutons record remnants of former magma reservoirs that lost melt to volcanic eruptions has been controversial. Published Ar/Ar-feldspar and U-Pb-zircon ages for plutons spatially associated with ignimbrite calderas document final crystallization of granitoid intrusions at times indistinguishable from the tuff to ages several million years younger. These ages also show that SRMVF caldera-related intrusions cooled and solidified soon after zircon crystallization, as magma supply waned. Some researchers interpret these results as recording pluton assembly in small increments that crystallized rapidly, leading to temporal disconnects between ignimbrite eruption and intrusion growth. Alternatively, crystallization ages of the granitic rocks are here inferred to record late solidification, after protracted open-system evolution involving voluminous mantle input, lengthy residence (10 5 –10 6 yr) as near-solidus crystal mush, and intermittent separation of liquid to supply volcanic eruptions. The compositions of the least-evolved ignimbrite magmas tend to merge with those of caldera-related plutons, suggesting that the plutons record nonerupted parts of long-lived cogenetic magmatic systems, variably modified prior to final solidification. Precambrian-source zircons are scarce in caldera plutons, in contrast to their abundance in some peripheral waning-stage intrusions of the SRMVF, implying dissolution of inherited crustal zircon during lengthy magma assembly for the ignimbrite eruptions and construction of a subvolcanic batholith. Broad age spans of zircons (to several million years) from individual samples of some ignimbrites and intrusions, commonly averaged and interpreted as “intrusion-emplacement age,” alternatively provide an incomplete record of intermittent crystallization during protracted incremental magma-body assembly, with final solidification only when the system began to wane. Analyses of whole zircons cannot resolve late stages of crystal growth, and early growth in a long-lived magmatic system may be poorly recorded due to periods of zircon dissolution. Overall, construction of a batholith can take longer than recorded by zircon-crystallization ages, while the time interval for separation and shallow assembly of eruptible magma may be much shorter. Magma-supply estimates (from ages and volcano-plutonic volumes) yield focused intrusion-assembly rates sufficient to generate ignimbrite-scale volumes of eruptible magma, based on published thermal models. Mid-Tertiary processes of batholith assembly associated with the SRMVF caused drastic chemical and physical reconstruction of the entire lithosphere, probably accompanied by asthenospheric input.

Colorado, New Mexico↗

USGS2023

Toward a total water level forecast of the Great Lakes

The combined effect of storm surge and large waves is the main driving mechanism that erodes beaches, inundates low-lying areas, leading to millions of dollars in property damage, loss of natural resources, and lives. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aims to expand the real-time total water level (TWL) forecast provided in the Operational Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecasts (TWL&CC) to the Great Lakes short- (0 – 36 hours) to medium-term (3 – 5 days) coastal-hazard forecasts to inform planners and emergency responders. This study assesses the skill of forecast water levels and wave characteristics required as input to the TWL forecasts. It finds that, while skill generally decreases as forecast period increases, these data are suitable as input to the TWL forecast system. As the TWL predictions depend on the water level and wave forecasts, validation against field observations allow evaluation of their suitability for the Great Lakes. These results have implications on the prediction of water levels and their potential impacts on coastal resiliency in North America.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2023

Mode and provenance of sediment deposition on a transgressive marsh

In this study, we use foraminifera as environmental indicators to aid in computing the historical volumetric inputs of estuarine sediments to adjacent marsh. These data can help assess the importance of estuarine sediment inputs to marsh accretion. The Grand Bay system (GBS), located on the southern coast of Alabama and Mississippi, has been described as a “self-cannibalizing bay-marsh complex” due to the disproportionately large amount of suspended sediment exported from the GBS relative to the amount of sediment imported into tidal channels and available to the marsh. Despite this sediment limitation in the marshes, mass sediment budgets along shoreline-proximal marsh sites suggest depositional fluxes on the marsh are nearly equivalent to erosional losses at decadal scales. Geochronologies and foraminiferal census data for two shore-normal transects show that estuarine sediment contributes significant portions (28-65%) of this depositional flux. Contrast in shoreline morphology (i.e., orientation, irregularity, and exposure) and adjacent environments (i.e., tidal creeks and mud flats) may influence the proportion of estuarine sediment delivered to marsh. Improvements of sediment provenance tracers in these environments will continually improve the understanding of sediment reworking and transport in transgressive marsh-estuarine systems such as GBS and the role they play in marsh resiliency to sea-level change.

Alabama, Mississippi↗

USGS2011

Hydrologic effects of urbanization and climate change on the Flint River Basin, Georgia

The potential effects of long-term urbanization and climate change on the freshwater resources of the Flint River basin were examined by using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land cover on streamflow and multiple intermediate hydrologic states. Precipitation and temperature output from five general circulation models (GCMs) using one current and three future climate-change scenarios were statistically downscaled for input into PRMS. Projections of urbanization through 2050 derived for the Flint River basin by the Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land-Cover (FORE-SCE) land-cover change model were also used as input to PRMS. Comparison of the central tendency of streamflow simulated based on the three climate-change scenarios showed a slight decrease in overall streamflow relative to simulations under current conditions, mostly caused by decreases in the surface- runoff and groundwater components. The addition of information about forecasted urbanization of land surfaces to the hydrologic simulation mitigated the decreases in streamflow, mainly by increasing surface runoff.

Georgia↗

USGS2011

Simulations of historical and future trends in snowfall and groundwater recharge for basins draining to Long Island Sound

A regional watershed model was developed for watersheds contributing to Long Island Sound, including the Connecticut River basin. The study region covers approximately 40 900 km 2 , extending from a moderate coastal climate zone in the south to a mountainous northern New England climate zone dominated by snowmelt in the north. The input data indicate that precipitation and temperature have been increasing for the last 46 years (1961– 2006) across the region. Minimum temperature has increased more than maximum temperature over the same period (1961–2006). The model simulation indicates that there was an upward trend in groundwater recharge across most of the modeled region. However, trends in increasing precipitation and groundwater recharge are not significant at the 0.05 level if the drought of 1961–67 is removed from the time series. The trend in simulated snowfall is not significant across much of the region, although there is a significant downward trend in southeast Connecticut and in central Massachusetts. To simulate future trends, two input datasets, one assuming high carbon emissions and one assuming low carbon emissions, were developed from GCM forecasts. Under both of the carbon emission scenarios, simulations indicate that historical trends will continue, with increases in groundwater recharge over much of the region and substantial snowfall decreases across Massachusetts, Connecticut, southern Vermont, and southern New Hampshire. The increases in groundwater recharge and decreases in snowfall are most pronounced for the high emission scenario.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode I↗

USGS2018

Do downscaled general circulation models reliably simulate historical climatic conditions?

The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

Earth Interactions↗

USGS2022

Selecting the optimal fine-scale historical climate data for assessing current and future hydrological conditions

High-resolution historical climate grids are readily available and frequently used as inputs for a wide range of regional management and risk assessments, including water supply, ecological processes, and as baseline for climate change impact studies that compare them to future projected conditions. Because historical gridded climates are produced using various methods, their portrayal of landscape conditions differ, which becomes a source of uncertainty when they are applied to subsequent analyses. Here we tested the range of values from five gridded climate datasets. We compared their values to observations from 1231 weather stations, first using each dataset’s native scale, and then after each was rescaled to 270-m resolution. We inputted the downscaled grids to a mechanistic hydrology model and assessed the spatial results of six hydrological variables across California, in 10 ecoregions and 11 large watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. PRISM was most accurate for precipitation, ClimateNA for maximum temperature, and TopoWx for minimum temperature. The single most accurate dataset overall was PRISM due to the best performance for precipitation and low air temperature errors. Hydrological differences ranged up to 70% of the average monthly streamflow with an average of 35% disagreement for all months derived from different historical climate maps. Large differences in minimum air temperature data produced differences in modeled actual evapotranspiration, snowpack, and streamflow. Areas with the highest variability in climate data, including the Sierra Nevada and Klamath Mountains ecoregions, also had the largest spread for snow water equivalent, recharge, and runoff.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗