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Preface

Energy is the essential commodity that powers the expanding global economy. Starting in the 1950s, oil and natural gas became the main sources of primary energy for the rapidly increasing world population ( Edwards, 1997 ). In 2003, petroleum was the source for 62.1% of global energy, and projections by energy information administration (EIA) indicate that oil and gas will continue their dominance, supplying 59.5% of global energy in 2030 ( EIA, 2007 ). Unfortunately petroleum and coal consumption carry major detrimental environmental impacts that may be regional or global in scale, including air pollution, global climate change and oil spills. This special volume of Applied Geochemistry, devoted to “Environmental Issues Related to Oil and Gas Exploration and Production”, does not address these major impacts directly because air pollution and global climate change are issues related primarily to the burning of petroleum and coal, and major oil spills generally occur during ocean transport, such as the Exxon Valdez 1989 spill of 42,000 m 3 (260,000 bbl) oil into Prince William Sound, Alaska.

Applied Geochemistry↗

Limited rigor in studies of raptor mortality and mitigation at wind power facilities

Wind power is an expanding source of renewable energy. However, there are ecological challenges related to wind energy generation, including collisions of wildlife with turbines. Lack of rigor, and variation in study design, together limit efforts to understand the broad-scale effects of wind power infrastructure on wildlife populations. It is not clear, however, whether these types of limitations apply to groups of birds such as raptors that are particularly vulnerable to negative effects of wind energy. We reviewed 672 peer-reviewed publications, unpublished reports, and citations from 321 wind facilities in 12 countries to evaluate methods used to monitor and mitigate for wind facility impacts on raptors. Most reports that included raptor monitoring (86 %, n = 461) only conducted post-construction monitoring for raptor fatalities, while few (12 %; n = 65) estimated pre-construction raptor use. Only 27 % of facilities ( n = 62) provided estimates of fatalities or raptor use across multiple construction phases, and the percentage of facilities with data available from multiple construction periods has not changed over time. A formal experimental study design was incorporated into surveys at only 29 % of facilities. Finally, mitigation practices to reduce impacts on raptors were only reported at 23 % of facilities. Our results suggest that rigorous data collection on wind energy impacts to raptors is rare, and that mitigation of detrimental effects is seldom reported. Expanding the use of rigorous research approaches and increasing data availability would improve understanding of the regional and global effects of wind energy on raptor populations.

Biological Conservation↗

Combining field observations and high-resolution numerical modeling to demonstrate the effect of coral reef roughness on turbulence and its implications for reef restoration design

Coral reefs are effective natural barriers that protect adjacent coastal communities from hazards such as erosion and storm-induced flooding. However, the degradation of coral reefs compromises their ability to protect against these hazards, making degraded reefs a target for restoration. There have been limited field and numerical modeling studies conducted to understand how an increase in coral reef roughness, as would occur due to restoration, can affect wave energy dissipation for a range of real-world wave and water level conditions. To address this knowledge gap, field measurements were collected over adjacent low-roughness and high-roughness reefs off Molokaʻi, Hawaiʻi, USA, subjected to the same oceanographic forcing. Those field data were then used to calibrate and validate OpenFOAM computational fluid dynamics models of the reef. These calibrated models were then used to explore energy dissipation for a range of wave conditions based on measurements from a suite of existing datasets and values from the literature. In general, wave dissipation scales with incident wave conditions, where greater dissipation occurred for shallow depths and shorter-period waves. This tendency for short-period waves to be more readily attenuated is supported by wave energy dissipation factors in the range of 0.1–5, which decline with increasing wave period. Near-bed turbulent kinetic energy dissipation also scales with incident wave conditions, where the greatest difference in dissipation between low and high relief cases occurs for short wave periods. Turbulence becomes less affected by bottom roughness as the wave period increases. Based on this study, wave attenuation and turbulent energy dissipation could be enhanced by 0.5–1 order of magnitude (45% per across-shore meter) if the seabed roughness at the field site were increased by 13%, an achievable goal in coral reef restoration.

Coastal Engineering↗

Seismo-acoustic evidence for an avalanche driven phreatic eruption through a beheaded hydrothermal system: An example from the 2012 Tongariro eruption

The 6 August 2012 Te Maari eruption comprises a complex eruption sequence including multiple eruption pulses, a debris avalanche that propagated ~ 2 km from the vent, and the formation of a 500 m long, arcuate chasm, located ~ 300 m from the main eruption vent. The eruption included 6 distinct impulses that were coherent across a local infrasound network marking the eruption onset at 11:52:18 (all times UTC). An eruption energy release of ~ 3 × 1012 J was calculated using a body wave equation for radiated seismic energy. A similar calculation based on the infrasound record, shows that ~ 90% of the acoustic energy was released from three impulses at onset times 11:52:20 (~ 20% of total eruption energy), 11:52:27 (~ 50%), and 11:52:31 (~ 20%). These energy impulses may coincide with eyewitness accounts describing an initial eastward directed blast, followed by a westward directed blast, and a final vertical blast. Pre-eruption seismic activity includes numerous small unlocatable micro-earthquakes that began at 11:46:50. Two larger high frequency earthquakes were recorded at 11:49:06 and 11:49:21 followed directly by a third earthquake at 11:50:17. The first event was located within the scarp based on an arrival time location from good first P arrival times and probably represents the onset of the debris avalanche. The third event was a tornillo, characterised by a 0.8 Hz single frequency resonance, and has a resonator attenuation factor of Q ~ 40, consistent with a bubbly fluid filled resonator. This contrasts with a similar tornillo event occurring 2.5 weeks earlier having Q ~ 250–1000, consistent with a dusty gas charged resonator. We surmise from pre-eruption seismicity, and the observed attenuation change, that the debris avalanche resulted from the influx of fluids into the hydrothermal system, causing destabilisation and failure. The beheaded hydrothermal system may have then caused depressurisation frothing of the remaining gas charged system leading to the onset of explosive activity.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

Crustal contamination and crystal entrapment during polybaric magma evolution at Mt. Somma-Vesuvius volcano, Italy: Geochemical and Sr isotope evidence

New major and trace element analyses and Sr-isotope determinations of rocks from Mt. Somma-Vesuvius volcano produced from 25 ky BP to 1944 AD are part of an extensive database documenting the geochemical evolution of this classic region. Volcanic rocks include silica undersaturated, potassic and ultrapotassic lavas and tephras characterized by variable mineralogy and different crystal abundance, as well as by wide ranges of trace element contents and a wide span of initial Sr-isotopic compositions. Both the degree of undersaturation in silica and the crystal content increase through time, being higher in rocks produced after the eruption at 472 AD (Pollena eruption). Compositional variations have been generally thought to reflect contributions from diverse types of mantle and crust. Magma mixing is commonly invoked as a fundamental process affecting the magmas, in addition to crystal fractionation. Our assessment of geochemical and Sr-isotopic data indicates that compositional variability also reflects the influence of crustal contamination during magma evolution during upward migration to shallow crustal levels and/or by entrapment of crystal mush generated during previous magma storage in the crust. Using a variant of the assimilation fractional crystallization model (Energy Conservation-Assimilation Fractional Crystallization; [Spera and Bohrson, 2001. Energy-constrained open-system magmatic processes I: General model and energy-constrained assimilation and fractional crystallization (EC-AFC) formulation. J. Petrol. 999-1018]; [Bohrson, W.A. and Spera, F.J., 2001. Energy-constrained open-system magmatic process II: application of energy-constrained assimilation-fractional crystallization (EC-AFC) model to magmatic systems. J. Petrol. 1019-1041]) we estimated the contributions from the crust and suggest that contamination by carbonate rocks that underlie the volcano (2 km down to 9-10 km) is a fundamental process controlling magma compositions at Mt. Somma-Vesuvius in the last 8 ky BP. Contamination in the mid- to upper crust occurred repeatedly, after the magma chamber waxed with influx of new mantle- and crustal-derived magmas and fluids, and waned as a result of magma withdrawal and production of large and energetic plinian and subplinian eruptions. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

LITHOS↗

Oil and gas development footprint in the Piceance Basin, western Colorado

Understanding long-term implications of energy development on ecosystem functionrequires establishing regional datasets to quantify past development and determine relationships to predict future development. The Piceance Basin in western Colorado has a history of energy production and development is expected to continue into the foreseeable future due to abundant natural gas resources. To facilitate analyses of regional energy development we digitized all well pads in the Colorado portion of the basin, determined the previous land cover of areas converted to well pads over three time periods (2002–2006, 2007–2011, and 2012–2016), and explored the relationship between number of wells per pad and pad area to model future development. We also calculated the area of pads constructed prior to 2002. Over 21 million m 2 has been converted to well pads with approximately 13 million m 2 converted since 2002. The largest land conversion since 2002 occurred in shrub/scrub (7.9 million m 2 ), evergreen (2.1 million m 2 ), and deciduous (1.3 million m 2 ) forest environments based on National Land Cover Database classifications. Operational practices have transitioned from single well pads to multi-well pads, increasing the average number of wells per pad from 2.5 prior to 2002, to 9.1 between 2012 and 2016. During the same time period the pad area per well has increased from 2030 m 2 to 3504 m 2 . Kernel density estimation was used to model the relationship between the number of wells per pad and pad area, with these curves exhibiting a lognormal distribution. Therefore, either kernel density estimation or lognormal probability distributions may potentially be used to model land use requirements for future development. Digitized well pad locations in the Piceance Basin contribute to a growing body of spatial data on energy infrastructure and, coupled with study results, will facilitate future regional and national studies assessing the spatial and temporal effects of energy development on ecosystem function.

Colorado↗

Interannual variability of snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains, United States: examples from two alpine watersheds

The distribution of snow and the energy flux components of snowmelt are intrinsic characteristics of the alpine water cycle controlling the location of source waters and the effect of climate on streamflow. Interannual variability of these characteristics is relevant to the effect of climate change on alpine hydrology. Our objective is to characterize the interannual variability in the spatial distribution of snow and energy fluxes of snowmelt in watersheds of a maritime setting, Tokopah Basin (TOK) in California's southern Sierra Nevada, and a continental setting, Green Lake 4 Valley (GLV4) in Colorado's Front Range, using a 12 year database (1996–2007) of hydrometeorological observations and satellite-derived snow cover. Snowpacks observed in GLV4 exhibit substantially greater spatial variability than in TOK (0.75 versus 0.28 spatial coefficient of variation). In addition, modeling results indicate that the net turbulent energy flux contribution to snowmelt in GLV4 is, on average, 3 times greater in magnitude (mean 29% versus 10%) and interannual variability (standard deviation 17% versus 6%) than in TOK. These energy flux values exhibit strong seasonality, increasing as the melt season progresses to times later in the year (R 2 = 0.54–0.77). This seasonality of energy flux appears to be associated with snowmelt rates that generally increase with onset date of melt (0.02 cm d -2 ). This seasonality in snowmelt rate, coupled to differences in hydrogeology, may account for the observed differences in correspondence between the timing of snowmelt and timing of streamflow in these watersheds.

Sierra Nevada;Rocky Mountains↗

Quantifying aspect-dependent snowpack response to high-elevation wildfire in the southern Rocky Mountains

Increasing wildfire frequency and severity in high-elevation seasonal snow zones presents a considerable water resource management challenge across the western United States (U.S.). Wildfires can affect snowpack accumulation and melt patterns, altering the quantity and timing of runoff. While prior research has shown that wildfire generally increases snow melt rates and advances snow disappearance dates, uncertainties remain regarding variations across complex terrain and the energy balance between burned and unburned areas. Utilizing paired in situ data sources within the 2020 Cameron Peak burn area on the Front Range of Colorado, U.S., during the 2021–2022 winter, we found no significant difference in peak snow water equivalent (SWE) magnitude between burned and unburned areas. However, the burned south aspect reached peak SWE 22 days earlier than burned north. During the ablation period, burned south melt rates were 71% faster than unburned south melt rates, whereas burned north melt rates were 94% faster than unburned north aspects. Snow disappeared 7–11 days earlier in burned areas than unburned areas. Net energy differences at the burned and unburned weather station sites were seasonally variable, the burned area snowpack lost more net energy during the winter, but gained more net energy during the spring. Increased incoming shortwave radiation at the burned site was 6 x more impactful in altering the net shortwave radiation balance than the decline in surface albedo. These findings emphasize the need for post-wildfire water resource planning that accounts for aspect-dependent differences in energy and mass balance to accurately predict snowpack storage and runoff timing.

Colorado↗

Estimating discharge of shallow groundwater by transpiration from greasewood in the Northern Great Basin

Evapotranspiration from bare soil and phreatophytes is a principal mechanism of groundwater discharge in arid and semiarid regions of the midwestern and western United States including the Great Basin. The imbalance between independent estimates of groundwater recharge from precipitation and of groundwater discharge based on estimates of groundwater evapotranspiration leads to large uncertainties in groundwater budgets. Few studies have addressed this problem. Energy budget micrometeorological field studies were conducted in a stand of sparse-canopy greasewood growing in an area of shallow groundwater in the western Great Basin during the summer of 1989. The data were used to calculate above-canopy fluxes of sensible and latent heat using the energy budget-Bowen ratio method. The calculated energy budget fluxes were used, with soil surface and plant canopy temperature measurements, to calibrate and apply a two-component, energy-combination model that partitions the energy and heat fluxes between bare soil and the canopy. This permitted the separation of evaporation from the soil and transpiration from greasewood. The calibrated model was used to estimate daily transpiration of groundwater by greasewood growing in an area with a depth to water of about 2 m. The daily rate of groundwater discharge by transpiration during July and August was estimated to be 2.4 mm. A period of 100 days for groundwater discharge at this rate was assumed to estimate an annual discharge of groundwater of 24 cm at the study site.

Great Basin↗

Geospatial assessment of agrivoltaic opportunities and land use requirements in Nigeria

Agrivoltaics, the co-location of agriculture and solar photovoltaic (PV) infrastructure, can deliver co-benefits like reduced plant drought stress and improved yields of shade-tolerant crops, particularly in water-scarce regions. Despite growing global interest, the technical potential and opportunities for agrivoltaics remain poorly understood in many regions facing both food and energy insecurity, such as sub-Saharan Africa. Here we provide a spatial assessment of agrivoltaic opportunities in Nigeria by integrating cropland distribution, solar resources, and water stress. We find that northern states—where cropland is abundant and water-stressed, solar irradiance is high, and electricity access remains low—offer the greatest potential for agrivoltaic systems to generate co-benefits. In contrast, the humid forest regions of southern Nigeria exhibit lower suitability, with sparse cropland and weaker solar potential. We also estimate that northern states could fully meet their projected 2050 solar energy targets by allocating less than 1% of existing cropland to agrivoltaics, whereas southern states would require much larger fractions (5.9–18.9%). Notably, in the northern state of Kano, the country’s most populous, allocating 0.6–1.8% of cropland would be sufficient to meet mid-century solar energy projections. Collectively, our findings highlight priority regions where agrivoltaics could most effectively strengthen food-energy security linkages and support equitable energy transition in Nigeria.

Scientific Reports↗

Predation on exotic zebra mussels by native fishes: Effects on predator and prey

1. Exotic zebra mussels, Dreissena polymorpha, occur in southern U.S. waterways in high densities, but little is known about the interaction between native fish predators and zebra mussels. Previous studies have suggested that exotic zebra mussels are low profitability prey items and native vertebrate predators are unlikely to reduce zebra mussel densities. We tested these hypotheses by observing prey use of fishes, determining energy content of primary prey species of fishes, and conducting predator exclusion experiments in Lake Dardanelle, Arkansas. 2. Zebra mussels were the primary prey eaten by 52.9% of blue catfish, Ictalurus furcatus; 48.2% of freshwater drum, Aplodinotus grunniens; and 100% of adult redear sunfish, Lepomis microlophus. Blue catfish showed distinct seasonal prey shifts, feeding on zebra mussels in summer and shad, Dorosoma spp., during winter. Energy content (joules g-1) of blue catfish prey (threadfin shad, Dorosoma petenense; gizzard shad, D. cepedianum; zebra mussels; and asiatic clams, Corbicula fluminea) showed a significant species by season interaction, but shad were always significantly greater in energy content than bivalves examined as either ash-free dry mass or whole organism dry mass. Fish predators significantly reduced densities of large zebra mussels (>5 mm length) colonising clay tiles in the summers of 1997 and 1998, but predation effects on small zebra mussels (???5 mm length) were less clear. 3. Freshwater drum and redear sunfish process bivalve prey by crushing shells and obtain low amounts of higher-energy food (only the flesh), whereas blue catfish lack a shell-crushing apparatus and ingest large amounts of low-energy food per unit time (bivalves with their shells). Blue catfish appeared to select the abundant zebra mussel over the more energetically rich shad during summer, then shifted to shad during winter when shad experienced temperature-dependent stress and mortality. Native fish predators can suppress adult zebra mussel colonisation, but are ultimately unlikely to limit population density because of zebra mussel reproductive potential.

Freshwater Biology↗

Fire intensity, fire severity and burn severity: A brief review and suggested usage

Several recent papers have suggested replacing the terminology of fire intensity and fire severity. Part of the problem with fire intensity is that it is sometimes used incorrectly to describe fire effects, when in fact it is justifiably restricted to measures of energy output. Increasingly, the term has created confusion because some authors have restricted its usage to a single measure of energy output referred to as fireline intensity. This metric is most useful in understanding fire behavior in forests, but is too narrow to fully capture the multitude of ways fire energy affects ecosystems. Fire intensity represents the energy released during various phases of a fire, and different metrics such as reaction intensity, fireline intensity, temperature, heating duration and radiant energy are useful for different purposes. Fire severity, and the related term burn severity, have created considerable confusion because of recent changes in their usage. Some authors have justified this by contending that fire severity is defined broadly as ecosystem impacts from fire and thus is open to individual interpretation. However, empirical studies have defined fire severity operationally as the loss of or change in organic matter aboveground and belowground, although the precise metric varies with management needs. Confusion arises because fire or burn severity is sometimes defined so that it also includes ecosystem responses. Ecosystem responses include soil erosion, vegetation regeneration, restoration of community structure, faunal recolonization, and a plethora of related response variables. Although some ecosystem responses are correlated with measures of fire or burn severity, many important ecosystem processes have either not been demonstrated to be predicted by severity indices or have been shown in some vegetation types to be unrelated to severity. This is a critical issue because fire or burn severity are readily measurable parameters, both on the ground and with remote sensing, yet ecosystem responses are of most interest to resource managers.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

Environmental controls of suppressed fall crop productivity in an agrivoltaic solar array

Globally, agrivoltaics (AV) research has revealed how microclimates created by photovoltaic (PV) panels can be leveraged to promote reciprocal benefits for agricultural land use and PV energy generation. Yet, in regions of the United States where emissions reduction laws are likely to lead to greater PV development on croplands, empirical evaluation of such co-location remain under explored. Furthermore, the most common approach to AV in the United States is one that maximizes energy generation and secondarily accommodates for agricultural management, and the controls of crop production in facilities that employ such an approach are underrepresented in the AV literature. Here, we assessed the agronomic and physiological response of two vegetable crops (radish and radicchio) with different carbon allocation patterns (belowground and aboveground, respectively) in an energy focused AV facility during a fall growing season, in New York, United States. We found that a reduction in total irradiance (−24%) within the AV array decreased total biomass in both crop types (46% and 49%), with significant alterations to root-shoot ratios in radish. Reductions in total biomass were not a result of physiological acclimation, indicating that AV crops had similar photosynthetic capacity as control crops; however, the environmental constraints imposed by energy focused AV design (i.e. reduced irradiance) limited C uptake overall. Our findings highlight the need for novel management approaches (e.g. earlier planting of AV fall crops) to help overcome yield penalties incurred by energy focused AV designs.

New York↗

Factors influencing geographic patterns in diversity of forest bird communities of eastern Connecticut, USA

At regional scales, the most important variables associated with diversity are latitudinally-based temperature and net primary productivity, although diversity is also influenced by habitat. We examined bird species richness, community density and community evenness in forests of eastern Connecticut to determine whether: 1) spatial and seasonal patterns exist in diversity, 2) energy explains the greatest proportion of variation in diversity parameters, 3) variation in habitat explains remaining diversity variance, and 4) seasonal shifts in diversity provide clues about how environmental variables shape communities. We sought to discover if our data supported predictions of the species–energy hypothesis. We used the variable circular plot technique to estimate bird populations and quantified the location, elevation, forest type, vegetation type, canopy cover, moisture regime, understory density and primary production for the study sites. We found that 1) summer richness and population densities are roughly equal in northeastern and southeastern Connecticut, whereas in winter both concentrate toward the coast, 2) variables linked with temperature explained much of the patterns in winter diversity, but energy-related variables showed little relationship to summer diversity, 3) the effect of habitat variables on diversity parameters predominated in summer, although their effect was weak, 4) contrary to theory, evenness increased from summer to winter, and 5) support for predictions of species–energy theory was primarily restricted to winter data. Although energy and habitat played a role in explaining community patterns, they left much of the variance in regional diversity unexplained, suggesting that a large stochastic component to diversity also may exist.

Connecticut↗

Extreme precipitation variability, forage quality and large herbivore diet selection in arid environments

Nutritional ecology forms the interface between environmental variability and large herbivore behaviour, life history characteristics, and population dynamics. Forage conditions in arid and semi-arid regions are driven by unpredictable spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall. Diet selection by herbivores should be directed towards overcoming the most pressing nutritional limitation (i.e. energy, protein [nitrogen, N], moisture) within the constraints imposed by temporal and spatial variability in forage conditions. We investigated the influence of precipitation-induced shifts in forage nutritional quality and subsequent large herbivore responses across widely varying precipitation conditions in an arid environment. Specifically, we assessed seasonal changes in diet breadth and forage selection of adult female desert bighorn sheep Ovis canadensis mexicana in relation to potential nutritional limitations in forage N, moisture and energy content (as proxied by dry matter digestibility, DMD). Succulents were consistently high in moisture but low in N and grasses were low in N and moisture until the wet period. Nitrogen and moisture content of shrubs and forbs varied among seasons and climatic periods, whereas trees had consistently high N and moderate moisture levels. Shrubs, trees and succulents composed most of the seasonal sheep diets but had little variation in DMD. Across all seasons during drought and during summer with average precipitation, forages selected by sheep were higher in N and moisture than that of available forage. Differences in DMD between sheep diets and available forage were minor. Diet breadth was lowest during drought and increased with precipitation, reflecting a reliance on few key forage species during drought. Overall, forage selection was more strongly associated with N and moisture content than energy content. Our study demonstrates that unlike north-temperate ungulates which are generally reported to be energy-limited, N and moisture may be more nutritionally limiting for desert ungulates than digestible energy.

Arizona↗

Holocene reef accretion: southwest Molokai, Hawaii, U.S.A.

Two reef systems off south Molokai, Hale O Lono and Hikauhi (separated by only 10 km), show strong and fundamental differences in modern ecosystem structure and Holocene accretion history that reflect the influence of wave-induced near-bed shear stresses on reef development in Hawaii. Both sites are exposed to similar impacts from south, Kona, and trade-wind swell. However, the Hale O Lono site is exposed to north swell and the Hikuahi site is not. As a result, the reef at Hale O Lono records no late Holocene net accretion while the reef at Hikauhi records consistent and robust accretion over late Holocene time. Analysis and dating of 24 cores from Hale O Lono and Hikauhi reveal the presence of five major lithofacies that reflect paleo-environmental conditions. In order of decreasing depositional energy they are: (1) coral-algal bindstone; (2) mixed skeletal rudstone; (3) massive coral framestone; (4) unconsolidated floatstone; and (5) branching coral framestone-bafflestone. At Hale O Lono, 10 cores document a backstepping reef ranging from ∼ 8,100 cal yr BP (offshore) to ∼ 4,800 cal yr BP (nearshore). A depauperate community of modern coral diminishes shoreward and seaward of ∼ 15 m depth due to wave energy, disrupted recruitment activities, and physical abrasion. Evidence suggests a change from conditions conducive to accretion during the early Holocene to conditions detrimental to accretion in the late Holocene. Reef structure at Hikauhi, reconstructed from 14 cores, reveals a thick, rapidly accreting and young reef (maximum age ∼ 900 cal yr BP). Living coral cover on this reef increases seaward with distance from the reef crest but terminates at a depth of ∼ 20 m where the reef ends in a large sand field. The primary limitation on vertical reef growth is accommodation space under wave base, not recruitment activities or energy conditions. Interpretations of cored lithofacies suggest that modern reef growth on the southwest corner of Molokai, and by extension across Hawaii in general, is controlled by wave-induced near-bed shear stress related to refracted North Pacific swell. Holocene accretion patterns here also reflect the long-term influence of wave-induced near-bed shear stress from north swell during late Holocene time. This finding is consistent with other studies (e.g., Grigg 1998; Cabioch et al. 1999) that reflect the dominance of swell energy and sea level in controlling modern and late Holocene accretion elsewhere in Hawaii and across the Pacific and Indian oceans. Notably, however, this result is refined and clarified for Hawaii in the hypothesis of Rooney et al. (2003) stating that enhancement of the El Niño Southern Oscillation beginning approximately 5000 years ago led to increased north swell energy and signaled the end to net accretion along exposed coastlines in Hawaii. The exposure of Hale O Lono to north swell and the age of sea floor there (ca. 4,800 cal yr BP), coupled with the lack of north swell incidence at Hikauhi and the continuous accretion that has occurred there over the last millennium, strongly supports the ENSO reef hypothesis as outlined by Rooney et al. (2003). Other factors controlling Holocene reef accretion at the study site are relative sea-level position and rate of rise, and wave sheltering by Laau Point. Habitat suitable for reef accretion on the southwest shore of Molokai has shrunk throughout the Holocene.

Hawai'i↗

El Nino influence on Holocene reef accretion in Hawai'i

New observations of reef accretion from several locations show that in Hawai'i accretion during early to middle Holocene time occurred in areas where today it is precluded by the wave regime, suggesting an increase in wave energy. Accretion of coral and coralline algae reefs in the Hawaiian Islands today is largely controlled by wave energy. Many coastal areas in the main Hawaiian Islands are periodically exposed to large waves, in particular from North Pacific swell and hurricanes. These are of sufficient intensity to prevent modern net accretion as evidenced by the antecedent nature of the seafloor. Only in areas sheltered from intense wave energy is active accretion observed. Analysis of reef cores reveals patterns of rapid early Holocene accretion in several locations that terminated by middle Holocene time, ca. 5000 yr ago. Previous analyses have suggested that changes in Holocene accretion were a result of reef growth "catching up" to sea level. New data and interpretations indicate that the end of reef accretion in the middle Holocene may be influenced by factors in addition to sea level. Reef accretion histories from the islands of Kaua'i, O'ahu, and Moloka'i may be interpreted to suggest that a change in wave energy contributed to the reduction or termination of Holocene accretion by 5000 yr ago in some areas. In these cases, the decrease in reef accretion occurred before the best estimates of the decrease in relative sea-level rise during the mid-Holocene high stand of sea level in the main Hawaiian Islands. However, reef accretion should decrease following the termination of relative sea-level rise (ca. 3000 yr ago) if reef growth were "catching up" to sea level. Evidence indicates that rapid accretion occurred at these sites in early Holocene time and that no permanent accretion is occurring at these sites today. This pattern persists despite the availability of hard substrate suitable for colonization at a wide range of depths between -30 m and the intertidal zone. We infer that forcing other than relative sea-level rise has altered the natural ability to support reef accretion on Hawaiian insular shelves. The limiting factor in these areas today is wave energy. Numbers of both large North Pacific swell events and hurricanes in Hawai'i are greater during El Nino years. We infer that if these major reef-limiting forces were suppressed, net accretion would occur in some areas in Hawai'i that are now wave-limited. Studies have shown that El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was significantly weakened during early-mid Holocene time, only attaining an intensity similar to the current one ca. 5000 yr ago. We speculate that this shift in ENSO may assist in explaining patterns of Holocene Hawaiian reef accretion that are different from those of the present and apparently not related to relative sen-level rise.

Hawaii↗

Modeling tidal freshwater marsh sustainability in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta under a broad suite of potential future scenarios

In this paper, we report on the adaptation and application of a one-dimensional marsh surface elevation model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), to explore the conditions that lead to sustainable tidal freshwater marshes in the Sacramento&ndash;San Joaquin Delta. We defined marsh accretion parameters to encapsulate the range of observed values over historic and modern time-scales based on measurements from four marshes in high and low energy fluvial environments as well as possible future trends in sediment supply and mean sea level. A sensitivity analysis of 450 simulations was conducted encompassing a range of eScholarship provides open access, scholarly publishing services to the University of California and delivers a dynamic research platform to scholars worldwide. porosity values, initial elevations, organic and inorganic matter accumulation rates, and sea-level rise rates. For the range of inputs considered, the magnitude of SLR over the next century was the primary driver of marsh surface elevation change. Sediment supply was the secondary control. More than 84% of the scenarios resulted in sustainable marshes with 88 cm of SLR by 2100, but only 32% and 11% of the scenarios resulted in surviving marshes when SLR was increased to 133 cm and 179 cm, respectively. Marshes situated in high-energy zones were marginally more resilient than those in low-energy zones because of their higher inorganic sediment supply. Overall, the results from this modeling exercise suggest that marshes at the upstream reaches of the Delta&mdash;where SLR may be attenuated&mdash;and high energy marshes along major channels with high inorganic sediment accumulation rates will be more resilient to global SLR in excess of 88 cm over the next century than their downstream and low-energy counterparts. However, considerable uncertainties exist in the projected rates of sea-level rise and sediment avail-ability. In addition, more research is needed to constrain future rates of aboveground and belowground plant productivity under increased CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations and flooding.

California↗