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USGS2013

Some like it hot, some not!

Dryland ecosystems cover over 40% of Earth's terrestrial landmass (1). Biocrusts—soil communities consisting of cyanobacteria, mosses, and lichens—can cover up to 70% of the ground in these ecosystems (see the figure, panel A) (2). The crucial role played by these and other very small organisms in nutrient, carbon, and water cycles has become increasingly clear in the past few decades (2, 3). Soil stability and the composition and performance of vascular plant communities also depend on biocrust health and activity. Yet, little is known about the identity, biology, ecophysiology, or distribution of the microbial components that dominate biocrusts (4, 5). Data are also needed to understand how they will respond to climate change. On page 1574 of this issue, Garcia-Pichel et al. (6) take a first step in filling this data gap.

Science↗

USGS2018

The Las Vegas Formation

The Las Vegas Formation was established in 1965 to designate the distinctive light-colored, fine-grained, fossil-bearing sedimentary deposits exposed in and around the Las Vegas Valley, Nevada. In a coeval designation, the sediments were subdivided into informal units with stratigraphic and chronologic frameworks that have persisted in the literature. Use of the Las Vegas Formation name over the past half century has been hampered because of the lack of a robust definition and characterization of the entire lithostratigraphic sequence, its geographic distribution, and chronology. This study evaluates and describes deposits attributed to the Las Vegas Formation with detailed stratigraphy, sedimentology, and field relations. A large suite of radiocarbon and luminescence ages facilitates revision and temporal expansion of the geochronology. In all, we characterize 17 informal geologic units within the formation, each dating to a unique period of geologic time, with stratigraphically ascending members X, A, B, D, and E and attendant beds in members B, D, and E. The age of the Las Vegas Formation spans at least the middle Pleistocene to early Holocene (from approximately 573 to 8.53 kilo-annum [thousands of years before present]) and is related to past episodes of groundwater discharge in the Las Vegas Valley. The contextual information derived from this new framework is dually noteworthy because the sediments entomb one of the most significant Pleistocene vertebrate faunas in the American Southwest, the Tule Springs local fauna, and represent a paleohydrologic system that responded dynamically to abrupt changes in climate throughout the late Quaternary. Characterizing the nature of these important deposits stabilizes the nomenclature, promotes the continued use of the informal units within the formation, and facilitates studies of similar deposits associated with desert wetland ecosystems elsewhere in the southwestern United States.

Nevada↗

USGS2014

Social-ecological resilience and law

Environmental law envisions ecological systems as existing in an equilibrium state, reinforcing a rigid legal framework unable to absorb rapid environmental changes and innovations in sustainability. For the past four decades, “resilience theory,” which embraces uncertainty and nonlinear dynamics in complex adaptive systems, has provided a robust, invaluable foundation for sound environmental management. Reforming American law to incorporate this knowledge is the key to sustainability. This volume features top legal and resilience scholars speaking on resilience theory and its legal applications to climate change, biodiversity, national parks, and water law.

Book↗

USGS2007

Potential for shoreline changes due to sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic region

Sea-level rise over the next century is expected to contribute significantly to physical changes along open-ocean shorelines. Predicting the form and magnitude of coastal changes is important for understanding the impacts to humans and the environment. Presently, the ability to predict coastal changes is limited by the scientific understanding of the many variables and processes involved in coastal change, and the lack of consensus regarding the validity of existing conceptual, analytical, or numerical models. In order to assess potential future coastal changes in the mid-Atlantic U.S. for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), a workshop was convened by the U.S. Geological Survey. Assessments of future coastal change were made by a committee of coastal scientists with extensive professional experience in the mid-Atlantic region. Thirteen scientists convened for a two-day meeting to exchange information and develop a consensus opinion on potential future coastal changes for the mid-Atlantic coast in response to sea-level rise. Using criteria defined in past work, the mid-Atlantic coast was divided into four geomorphic compartments: spits, headlands, wave-dominated barriers, and mixed-energy barriers. A range of potential coastal responses was identified for each compartment based on four sea-level rise scenarios. The four scenarios were based on the assumptions that: a) the long-term sea-level rise rate observed over the 20th century would persist over the 21st century, b) the 20th century rate would increase by 2 mm/yr, c) the 20th century rate would increase by 7 mm/yr, or d) sea-level would rise by 2 m over the next few hundred years. Potential responses to these sea-level rise scenarios depend on the landforms that occur within a region and include increased likelihood for erosion and shoreline retreat for all coastal types, increased likelihood for erosion, overwash and inlet breaching for barrier islands, as well as the possibility of a threshold state (e.g., dramatic change in barrier evolution, such as segmentation or disintegration) for some barrier island systems. The likelihood of the potential coastal responses is expressed using standard terminology employed in climate change assessments (e.g., as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and CCSP). This assessment was based on the coastal geomorphology in its present condition and does not consider any coastal protection that might be undertaken in the future. The committee recognized that a variety of erosion mitigation measures have been implemented along developed portions of the coast and these are very likely to be applied in the future. It was also acknowledged that economics, political will, and other factors can drive decisions to implement these measures, and that such decisions cannot be predicted with confidence. The results of this assessment are depicted graphically on maps of the study area.

Mid-Atlantic Coast↗

USGS2008

Increasing eolian dust deposition in the western United States linked to human activity

Mineral aerosols from dust are an important influence on climate and on marine and terrestrial biogeochemical cycles. These aerosols are generated from wind erosion of surface soils. The amount of dust emission can therefore be affected by human activities that alter surface sediments. However, changes in regional- and global-scale dust fluxes following the rapid expansion of human populations and settlements over the past two centuries are not well understood. Here we determine the accumulation rates and geochemical properties of alpine lake sediments from the western interior United States for the past 5,000 years. We find that dust load levels increased by 500% above the late Holocene average following the increased western settlement of the United States during the nineteenth century. We suggest that the increased dust deposition is caused by the expansion of livestock grazing in the early twentieth century. The larger dust flux, which persists into the early twenty-first century, results in a more than fivefold increase in inputs of K, Mg, Ca, N and P to the alpine ecosystems, with implications for surface-water alkalinity, aquatic productivity and terrestrial nutrient cycling.

Colorado↗

USGS2024

Increasing seasonal variation in the extent of rivers and lakes from 1984 to 2022

Knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of surface water is important for water resource management, flood risk assessment, monitoring ecosystem health, constraining estimates of biogeochemical cycles and understanding our climate. While global-scale spatiotemporal change detection of surface water has significantly improved in recent years due to planetary-scale remote sensing and computing, it has remained challenging to distinguish the changing characteristics of rivers and lakes. Here we analyze the spatial extent of permanent and seasonal rivers and lakes globally over the past 38 years based on new data of river system extents and surface water trends. Results show that while the total permanent surface area of both rivers and lakes has remained relatively constant, the areas with intermittent seasonal coverage have increased by 12 % and 27 % for rivers and lakes, respectively. The increase is statistically significant in over 84 % of global water catchments based on Spearman's rank correlations (rho) above 0.05 and p values less than 0.05. The seasonal river extent is nearly 32 % larger than the previously observed annual mean river extent, suggesting large seasonal variations that impact not only ecosystem health but also estimations of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles of carbon. The outcomes of our analysis are shared as the Surface Area of Rivers and Lakes (SARL) database, serving as a valuable resource for monitoring and research of hydrological cycles, ecosystem accounting, and water management.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2022

Warming in the upper San Francisco Estuary: Patterns of water temperature change from five decades of data

Temperature is a key controlling variable from subcellular to ecosystem scales. Thus, climatic warming is expected to have broad impacts, especially in economically and ecologically valuable systems such as estuaries. The heavily managed upper San Francisco Estuary supplies water to millions of people and is home to fish species of high conservation, commercial, and recreational interest. Despite a long monitoring record (> 50 yr), we do not yet know how water temperatures have already changed or how trends vary spatially or seasonally. We fit generalized additive models on an integrated database of discrete water temperature observations to estimate long-term trends with spatio-seasonal variability. We found that water temperatures have increased 0.017°C yr −1 on average over the past 50 yr. Rates of temperature change have varied over time, but warming was predominant. Temperature increases were most widespread in the late-fall to winter (November to February) and mid-spring (April to June), coinciding with the winter development of juvenile Chinook salmon and spring spawning window of the endangered delta smelt. Warming was fastest in the northern regions, a key fish migration corridor with important tidal wetland habitat. However, no long-term temperature trends were detected in October and were only observed in some regions in May, July, and August. These results can help identify optimal areas for restoration or refugia to buffer the effects of a warming climate, and the methods can be leveraged to understand the spatiotemporal variability in climate warming patterns in other aquatic systems.

California↗

USGS2011

Comparative phylogeography of a coevolved community: Concerted population expansions in Joshua trees and four Yucca moths

Comparative phylogeographic studies have had mixed success in identifying common phylogeographic patterns among co-distributed organisms. Whereas some have found broadly similar patterns across a diverse array of taxa, others have found that the histories of different species are more idiosyncratic than congruent. The variation in the results of comparative phylogeographic studies could indicate that the extent to which sympatrically-distributed organisms share common biogeographic histories varies depending on the strength and specificity of ecological interactions between them. To test this hypothesis, we examined demographic and phylogeographic patterns in a highly specialized, coevolved community - Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia) and their associated yucca moths. This tightly-integrated, mutually interdependent community is known to have experienced significant range changes at the end of the last glacial period, so there is a strong a priori expectation that these organisms will show common signatures of demographic and distributional changes over time. Using a database of >5000 GPS records for Joshua trees, and multi-locus DNA sequence data from the Joshua tree and four species of yucca moth, we combined paleaodistribution modeling with coalescent-based analyses of demographic and phylgeographic history. We extensively evaluated the power of our methods to infer past population size and distributional changes by evaluating the effect of different inference procedures on our results, comparing our palaeodistribution models to Pleistocene-aged packrat midden records, and simulating DNA sequence data under a variety of alternative demographic histories. Together the results indicate that these organisms have shared a common history of population expansion, and that these expansions were broadly coincident in time. However, contrary to our expectations, none of our analyses indicated significant range or population size reductions at the end of the last glacial period, and the inferred demographic changes substantially predate Holocene climate changes.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2015

Deposition, exhumation, and paleoclimate of an ancient lake deposit, Gale crater, Mars

The landforms of northern Gale crater on Mars expose thick sequences of sedimentary rocks. Based on images obtained by the Curiosity rover, we interpret these outcrops as evidence for past fluvial, deltaic, and lacustrine environments. Degradation of the crater wall and rim probably supplied these sediments, which advanced inward from the wall, infilling both the crater and an internal lake basin to a thickness of at least 75 meters. This intracrater lake system probably existed intermittently for thousands to millions of years, implying a relatively wet climate that supplied moisture to the crater rim and transported sediment via streams into the lake basin. The deposits in Gale crater were then exhumed, probably by wind-driven erosion, creating Aeolis Mons (Mount Sharp).

Science↗

USGS2023

Hydroclimate and fire paleorecords across the southern Rockies and Colorado Plateau over the common era

The southwestern US has been experiencing a severe drought and increased fire activity over the past two decades, affecting people’s health, homes, and businesses. Many individual fires occurring in the Southwest are the most severe in recorded history both in terms of dollars of damages as well as in fire extent. It is essential to be able to place the present drought and fires into the context of the current changing climate as well as in the framework of climate variability and human activity over centennial to millennial timescales. Dendrochronology can determine both the seasonality of fires as well as changes in precipitation. Charcoal, pollen, and the biomarkers levoglucosan, mannosan, and galactosan can help determine fire activity and the type of burned vegetation. People have controlled and utilized fire in the southwestern US for thousands of years. While proxies cannot yet determine if people ignited a specific fire, fecal sterols can determine if people were within an individual watershed. Here, we examine the strengths and weaknesses of using high-resolution tree-ring data in conjunction with biomarkers in ice and lake cores from the southwestern US to study interactions between changes in hydroclimate, fires, and human activity.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2025

Pleistocene porcupine (Erethizontidae) records in arid southwestern North America and comparisons with the modern distribution of Erethizon dorsatum in southern California and Arizona

he North American porcupine ( Erethizon dorsatum ) is widely distributed throughout many ecosystems on the continent from northern Mexico to the Arctic Ocean, except for the southeastern portion of the United States. Habitats include the arid Desert Southwest region where modern records are generally sparse. The paleogeographic range in the Desert Southwest is not unlike the modern distribution of Erethizon , with some exceptions. Although there are early Pleistocene records of Erethizon for southern California, no late Pleistocene records (Rancholabrean North American Land Mammal Age [NALMA]) are known for Imperial, Inyo, Riverside, or San Bernardino Counties in southern California or in Mexico. This is surprising given late-Pleistocene records in Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico and modern records from southern California and Mexico. Pleistocene habitats for porcupines were similar to those occupied today, just at different elevations due to differing climates. Modern preferred habitats in the Desert Southwest include conifer-clad high-elevation areas and associated pinyon pine / juniper belts, and occasionally riparian corridors in desert environments. The overall rarity of porcupines today in arid parts of the Desert Southwest is likely due to the combination of increasing aridity in the region during the Holocene, past persecution by humans, and increasing predator populations.

Arizona, California↗

USGS1999

Fire and aquatic ecosystems in forested biomes of North America

Synthesis of the literature suggests that physical, chemical, and biological elements of a watershed interact with long‐term climate to influence fire regime, and that these factors, in concordance with the postfire vegetation mosaic, combine with local‐scale weather to govern the trajectory and magnitude of change following a fire event. Perturbation associated with hydrological processes is probably the primary factor influencing postfire persistence of fishes, benthic macroinvertebrates, and diatoms in fluvial systems. It is apparent that salmonids have evolved strategies to survive perturbations occurring at the frequency of wildland fires (10°–10 2 years), but local populations of a species may be more ephemeral. Habitat alteration probably has the greatest impact on individual organisms and local populations that are the least mobile, and reinvasion will be most rapid by aquatic organisms with high mobility. It is becoming increasingly apparent that during the past century fire suppression has altered fire regimes in some vegetation types, and consequently, the probability of large stand‐replacing fires has increased in those areas. Current evidence suggests, however, that even in the case of extensive high‐severity fires, local extirpation of fishes is patchy, and recolonization is rapid. Lasting detrimental effects on fish populations have been limited to areas where native populations have declined and become increasingly isolated because of anthropogenic activities. A strategy of protecting robust aquatic communities and restoring aquatic habitat structure and life history complexity in degraded areas may be the most effective means for insuring the persistence of native biota where the probability of large‐scale fires has increased.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2003

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55°N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO 2 increase (to >700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2019

Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

Winter is an understudied but key period for the socio-ecological systems of northeastern North American forests. A growing awareness of the importance of the winter season to forest ecosystems and surrounding communities has inspired several decades of research, both across the northern forest and at other mid- and high-latitude ecosystems around the globe. Despite these efforts, we lack a synthetic understanding of how winter climate change may impact hydrological and biogeochemical processes and the social and economic activities they support. Here we take advantage of 100 years of meteorological observations across the northern forest region of the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada to develop a suite of indicators that enable a cross-cutting understanding of 1) how winter temperatures and snow cover have been changing and 2) how these shifts may impact both ecosystems and surrounding human communities. We show that cold and snow-covered conditions have generally decreased over the past 100 years. These trends suggest positive outcomes for tree health as related to reduced fine root mortality and nutrient loss associated with winter frost but negative outcomes as related to the northward advancement and proliferation of forest insect pests. In addition to effects on vegetation, reductions in cold temperatures and snow cover are likely to have negative impacts on the ecology of the northern forest through impacts on water, soils, and wildlife. The overall loss of coldness and snow cover may also have negative consequences for logging and forest products, vector-borne diseases and human health, recreation and tourism, and cultural practices, which together represent important social and economic dimensions for the northern forest region. These findings advance our understanding of how our changing winters may transform the socio- ecological system of a region that has been defined by the contrasting rhythm of the seasons. Our research also identifies a trajectory of change that informs our expectations for the future as the climate continues to warm.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2013

A model of strength

In her AAAS News & Notes piece "Can the Southwest manage its thirst?" (26 July, p. 362), K. Wren quotes Ajay Kalra, who advocates a particular method for predicting Colorado River streamflow "because it eschews complex physical climate models for a statistical data-driven modeling approach." A preference for data-driven models may be appropriate in this individual situation, but it is not so generally, Data-driven models often come with a warning against extrapolating beyond the range of the data used to develop the models. When the future is like the past, data-driven models can work well for prediction, but it is easy to over-model local or transient phenomena, often leading to predictive inaccuracy (1). Mechanistic models are built on established knowledge of the process that connects the response variables with the predictors, using information obtained outside of an extant data set. One may shy away from a mechanistic approach when the underlying process is judged to be too complicated, but good predictive models can be constructed with statistical components that account for ingredients missing in the mechanistic analysis. Models with sound mechanistic components are more generally applicable and robust than data-driven models.

Science↗

USGS2022

The tundra phenology database: More than two decades of tundra phenology responses to climate change

Observations of changes in phenology have provided some of the strongest signals of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), initiated in the early 1990s, established a common protocol to measure plant phenology in tundra study areas across the globe. Today, this valuable collection of phenology measurements depicts the responses of plants at the colder extremes of our planet to experimental and ambient changes in temperature over the past decades. The database contains 150 434 phenology observations of 278 plant species taken at 28 study areas for periods of 1–26 years. Here we describe the full data set to increase the visibility and use of these data in global analyses and to invite phenology data contributions from underrepresented tundra locations. Portions of this tundra phenology database have been used in three recent syntheses, some data sets are expanded, others are from entirely new study areas, and the entirety of these data are now available at the Polar Data Catalogue ( https://doi.org/10.21963/13215 ).

Arctic Science↗

USGS2000

Data Report: Intra-annual variability of the diatom assemblages at Hole 1034B (Saanich Inlet) near 9 ka

Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1034 (48°38.000´N, 123°30.000´W) was drilled at a water depth of 200 m in the Saanich Inlet, an anoxic fjord on the southeastern coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, to a depth of 118.2 meters below seafloor (mbsf). The uppermost 50 m consists of very well-laminated (triplet varves) diatomaceous muds deposited over the past 7000 yr. Below, sediments become progressively less distinctly laminated and reflect better oxygenated bottom-water conditions. The oldest sediments recovered at Site 1034 were dated as 14 to 15 ka (see Shipboard Scientific Party, 1998). Varved sediments recovered during Leg 169S in the Saanich Inlet offer an excellent opportunity to compare the interannual variability of recent climatic elements (e.g., sea-surface temperature, salinity, precipitation) with those of late Quaternary periods that were characterized by climates appreciably different from those of today. A large amount of recent diatom data from Saanich Inlet exists, which can serve as a baseline for such comparisons: Sancetta (1989a, 1989b, 1990) investigated modern processes controlling the accumulation of diatoms and spacial and temporal trends of diatom flux in the Inlet; Sancetta and Calvert (1988) documented the annual cycle of sedimentation in the fjord. McQuoid (1995) and McQuoid and Hobson (1997) studied the modern pattern of diatom succession in the Saanich Inlet and analyzed the diatoms in laminae couplets in frozen sediment cores for the years 1900 to 1991 A.D. During the hypsithermal warming of the early Holocene (~10-6 ka), climatic conditions throughout much of northern North America were warmer and drier than those of the present (Pielou, 1991; Hebda and Whitlock, 1997), largely as a result of increased solar insolation, which peaked between 10 and 9 ka at 65°N (Berger and Loutre, 1991). Temperatures are estimated to have been 2° to 4°C warmer than today for most of this interval, reaching a maximum between ~9 and 7 ka (Hebda and Whitlock, 1997). According to Heusser (1983) and Heusser (1985), rapid warming occurred at ~10 ka in southwestern British Columbia with summer conditions that were drier and as warm or warmer than today lasting until ~6 ka. Clague and Mathewes (1989) report that treeline elevation in the southeastern coast mountains of British Columbia reached elevations that were between 60 and 130 m higher than today between 9.1 and 8.2 ka. Thompson et al. (1993) argue that the driest conditions (period of maximum summer drought) of the Holocene were reached in western North America at 9 ka. The warmer and drier conditions of this Holocene thermal maximum were gradually replaced by cooler and wetter conditions (Hebda, 1995; Hebda and Whitlock, 1997). This report describes the intra-annual variability of the diatom assemblages at Site 1034, during a 8-yr interval near 9 ka. Pollen and dinoflagellates are being studied from the same samples by R. Hebda and P. Mudie (unpubl. data).

British Columbia↗

USGS2018

Informing our successors: What botanical information for Santa Cruz Island will researchers and conservation managers in the century ahead need the most?

Climate changes are predicted to drive changes in plant species composition and vegetation cover around the world. Preserved specimens and other botanical information that we gather today—a period future practitioners may look back on as an early stage of modern anthropogenic climate change—will be of value to conservation managers and conservation biologists in the decades and centuries ahead. Here, we present suggestions for the systematic collection, long-term curation (in museums, herbaria, and other research institutions), and maintenance of plant specimens, along with associated data and analyses on the plants and vegetation present today and in the past. The primary aim of this systematic survey is to provide information of high value to conservation researchers and managers both in the near term (the next several years) and through the century to come. Such a systematic survey would build on a strong foundation of research and adaptive management on the island. It would fill gaps in less well-studied groups of organisms and identify environmental, ecological, and cultural factors related to current patterns of distribution. It would also archive previously collected data, photographs, and other materials which would otherwise gradually degrade and become inaccessible. As a case study, we use Santa Cruz Island, California, which is managed for conservation. We are confident that the same approach may be applied to other lands and waters around the world. We argue that there is a particular need to collect and archive herbarium specimens and seeds from today's populations, activities largely overlooked in recent decades. We encourage conservation researchers and managers to consider what information will be most important for future managers and to help launch studies, monitoring programs, and collections to prepare their successors for success.

Western North American Naturalist↗