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USGS2012

Plague

Plague offers readers an overview of this highly complex disease caused by the bacteria Yersinia pestis . The history of the disease, as well as information about Yersinia pestis and its transmission by fleas, is described. The section Geographic Distribution presents areas of the world and United States where plague occurs most commonly in rodents and humans. Species Susceptibility describes infection and disease rates in rodents, humans, and other animals. Disease Ecology considers the complex relationship among rodents, domestic and wild animals, and humans and explores possible routes of transmission and maintenance of the organism in the environment. The effects of climate change, the potential for Y. pestis to be used as a bioweapon, and the impact of plague on conservation of wildlife are considered in Points to Ponder . Disease Prevention and Control outlines methods of prevention and treatment including vaccination for prairie dogs and black-footed ferrets. A glossary of technical terms is included. Tonie E. Rocke, the senior author and an epizootiologist at the USGS National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC), is a prominent researcher on oral vaccination of prairie dogs to prevent plague. She is currently working to transfer her success in the laboratory to the field to control plague in prairie dogs. Rachel C. Abbott, a biologist at the NWHC, is assisting Dr. Rocke in this process and will coordinate field trials of the vaccine. Milt Friend, first director of the NWHC, wrote the foreword. Plague is intended for scholars and the general public. The material is presented in a simple, straightforward manner that serves both audiences. Numerous illustrations and tables provide easily understood summaries of key points and information.

Circular↗

USGS2020

Spatial and temporal patterns in streamflow, water chemistry, and aquatic macroinvertebrates of selected streams in Fairfax County, Virginia, 2007–18

Urbanization substantially alters the landscape in ways that can impact stream hydrology, water chemistry, and the health of aquatic communities. Stormwater best management practices (BMPs) are the primary tools used to mitigate the effects of urban stressors such as increased runoff, decreased baseflow, and increased nutrient and sediment transport. To date, Fairfax County Virginia’s stormwater management program has made substantial investments into the implementation of both structural and nonstructural BMPs aimed at restoring and protecting watersheds. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Fairfax County, Virginia, established a long-term water-resources monitoring program to evaluate the watershed-scale effects of these investments. Monitoring began at 14 stations in 2007 and was expanded to 20 stations in 2013. This report utilized the first 10 years of data collection to (1) assess water quantity and quality, as well as ecological condition; (2) compute annual nutrient and sediment loads; and (3) evaluate trends in streamflow, water quality, and ecological condition. Efforts are underway to link the biotic and abiotic patterns described herein to watershed management practices as well as factors such as land use change, public works infrastructure, and climate. Hydrologic, chemical, and benthic macroinvertebrate community conditions in the streams monitored were similar to those observed in other studies of urban streams. Multidecadal trends in baseflow indices and runoff ratios at long-term Chesapeake Bay Non-tidal Network streamgages (CB-NTN) indicate a decrease in groundwater recharge and increase in storm runoff as a result of urbanization. Streamflow yields varied spatially with land cover, geology, and soil characteristics, whereas flashiness was positively related to impervious area. Dissolved oxygen typically was lowest in the Coastal Plain and across all Triassic Lowlands streams, and highest in the Piedmont. Dissolved oxygen concentrations generally were above Virginia’s minimum criterion of 4.0 milligrams per liter (mg/L), most violations occurred at Paul Spring Branch in the Coastal Plain during the warmest months of the year owing to increased chemical and biological oxygen demand. Typical pH values of the monitored streams centered on neutrality (pH = 7); however, diurnal fluctuations were most prevalent in the continuous pH data at Flatlick Branch (FLAT; a Triassic Lowlands station), as a result of increased photosynthesis catalyzed by phosphorus-rich geology. Specific conductance (SC) varied spatially owing to geology (highest at Triassic Lowlands stations) and anthropogenic disturbance (watersheds with high impervious land cover). Specific conductance typically was inversely related to streamflow except in winter months following deicing road salt applications, when values increased by several orders of magnitude. A significant increase in SC of about 2 percent per year was observed from the combined trend result of all monitoring stations over the 10-year period. Significant SC increases occurred at nearly all monitoring stations. Increasing trends were observed during winter and nonwinter months, which suggests that salts applied to deice roadways and other impervious surfaces are stored in the environment and released year-round. Suspended-sediment (SS) concentrations in monthly samples did not vary significantly between most stations, but typically were highest in the spring and lowest in the fall as a result of seasonal differences in streamflow and climate. Suspended-sediment yields ranged from 62 to 1,428 tons per square mile (ton/mi 2 ), with a median of 302 ton/mi 2 . Annual loads were greatest during the wettest water years (October 1-September 30; 2008, 2011, and 2014), with the greatest interannual variability occurring at Difficult Run above Fox Lake (DIFF) and South Fork Little Difficult Run (SFLIL). Suspended sediment was primarily composed of silts and clays; however, the proportion of sand in suspended sediment was related positively to streamflow. Cross-correlation analyses suggested the dominant sources of SS were streambank erosion and resuspension of in-channel material at DIFF and FLAT; whereas, upland sources and erosion of upper streambanks were more common at Dead Run (DEAD), Long Branch (LONG), and SFLIL. Median total phosphorus (TP) concentrations ranged from 0.016 to 0.077 mg/L, with a networkwide median of 0.022 mg/L, were highest in the warm season (April-September), and were composed primarily of dissolved phosphorous. Although TP concentrations were relatively low across the network, the highest concentrations were consistently at stations located in the Triassic Lowlands, owing to phosphorous-rich geology, and in the Coastal Plain, owing to the low-phosphorous sorptive capacity of those soils. A significant increase in TP concentration occurred in a few stations, but the combined trend results from all stations demonstrated a significant increase of about 4 percent per year. Networkwide increases were also observed in total dissolved phosphorus, orthophosphate, and total particulate phosphorus. The composition of TP shifted from dissolved to particulate as streamflow increased and for this reason loads primarily were composed of particulate phosphorous. Median annual TP loads were highest at FLAT and DEAD and ranged from 247 to 642 pounds per square mile (lbs/mi 2 ) networkwide. Interannual variability in phosphorous yields was apparent at most stations; the highest loading years were also the wettest years during the study period and coincident with the highest peak annual flows. Total nitrogen (TN) concentrations typically were low throughout the network with exceptions occurring at stations located in watersheds with a high density of septic infrastructure. Elevated TN concentrations also were observed in some watersheds without a high density of septic systems and may be attributable to geologic and soil properties that limit denitrification as well as other unknown anthropogenic inputs. Total nitrogen typically was dominated by nitrate during baseflows; however, the proportion of particulate nitrogen increased during stormflows. Total nitrogen yields were similar across stations, with medians ranging from about 3,600 to 6,300 lbs/mi 2 and were related to annual streamflow volume. Total nitrogen concentrations and flow-normalized concentrations decreased over the 10-year period at 7 stations, with median reductions of about 2.5 percent. Increasing trends were observed at the two stations with the highest median TN concentration (Captain Hickory Run and SFLIL, 3–5 mg/L), both watersheds contain a high density of septic infrastructure. The combined trend results from all stations revealed no trend in TN and a declining trend in nitrate of about 2 percent per year. Overall, benthic community metrics indicated that streams throughout Fairfax County were initially of poor health; however, many metrics show an improving trend (from poor to fair based on the Fairfax County Index of Biological Integrity [IBI]). Significant increasing trends in IBI occurred at the network-scale and at 4 individual stations; additionally, scores improved by at least 1 qualitative category (for example, poor to fair, fair to good) at 11 of the 14 stations between 2009 (the first year all 14 stations were sampled) and 2017. Changes in all metrics suggest that the biodiversity, function, and condition of streams in Fairfax County are improving, but some of these improvements are driven by increased diversity and percent composition of organisms that are tolerant of the urban environment.

Virginia↗

USGS2019

Impacts to wildlife of wind energy siting and operation in the United States

Electricity from wind energy is a major contributor to the strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use and thus reduce the negative impacts of climate change. Wind energy, like all power sources, can have adverse impacts on wildlife. After nearly 25 years of focused research, these impacts are much better understood, although uncertainty remains. In this report, we summarize positive impacts of replacing fossil fuels with wind energy, while describing what we have learned and what remains uncertain about negative ecological impacts of the construction and operation of land-based and offshore wind energy on wildlife and wildlife habitat in the U.S. Finally, we propose research on ways to minimize these impacts. TO SUMMARIZE: 1 Environmental and other benefits of wind energy include near-zero greenhouse gas emissions, reductions of other common air pollutants, and little or no water use associated with producing electricity from wind energy. Various scenarios for meeting U.S. carbon emission reduction goals indicate that a four- to five-fold expansion of land-based wind energy from the current 97 gigawatts (GW) by the year 2050 is needed to minimize temperature increases and reduce the risk of climate change to people and wildlife. 2 Collision fatalities of birds and bats are the most visible and measurable impacts of wind energy production. Current estimates suggest most bird species, especially songbirds, are at low risk of population-level impacts. Raptors as a group appear more vulnerable to collisions. Population-level impacts on migratory tree bats are a concern, and better information on population sizes is needed to evaluate potential impacts to these species. Although recorded fatalities of cave-dwelling bat species are typically low at most wind energy facilities, additional mortality from collisions is a concern given major declines in these species due to white-nose syndrome (WNS). Assessments of regional and cumulative fatality impacts for birds and bats have been hampered by the lack of data from areas with a high proportion of the nation’s installed wind energy capacity. Efforts to expand data accessibility from all regions are underway, and this greater access to data along with improvements in statistical estimators should lead to improved impact assessments. 3 Habitat impacts of wind energy development are difficult to assess. An individual wind energy facility may encompass thousands of acres, but only a small percentage of the landscape within the project area is directly transformed. If a project is sited in previously undisturbed habitat, there is concern for indirect impacts, such as displacement of sensitive species. Studies to date indicate displacement of some species, but the long-term population impacts are unknown. 4 Offshore wind energy development in the U.S. is just beginning. Studies at offshore wind facilities in Europe indicate some bird and marine mammal species are displaced from project areas, but substantial uncertainty exists regarding the individual or population-level impacts of this displacement. Bird and bat collisions with offshore turbines are thought to be less common than at terrestrial facilities, but currently the tools to measure fatalities at offshore wind energy facilities are not available. The wind energy industry, state and federal agencies, conservation groups, academia, and scientific organizations have collaborated for nearly 25 years to conduct the research needed to improve our understanding of risk to wildlife and to avoid and minimize that risk. Efforts to reduce the uncertainty about wildlife risk must keep up withthe pace and scale of the need to reduce carbon emissions. This will require focusing our research priorities and increasing the rate at which we incorporate research results into the development and validation of best practices for siting and operating wind energy facilities.

Issues in Ecology↗

USGS2024

Resilient riverine social–ecological systems: A new paradigm to meet global conservation targets

The United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity set forth the 30 × 30 target, an agenda for countries to protect at least 30% of their terrestrial, inland water, and coastal and marine areas by 2030. With <6 years to reach that goal, riverine conservation professionals are faced with the difficult decision of prioritizing which rivers or river segments should be conserved (protected and/or restored). While incorporating resilience into conservation planning is essential for enhancing, restoring, and maintaining the vital riverine ecosystem services (ES) most threatened by climate change and other environmental and human stresses, this paradigm is at odds with traditional conservation approaches that are either opportunistic or reactionary, where only unique and highly visible ecosystems have been prioritized. Barriers to implementing resilience-based riverine conservation planning include: (1) difficulties in conceptualizing and quantifying resilience; (2) insufficient consideration of the social components of riverine systems; (3) the inapplicability of terrestrial-only conservation models to aquatic systems; and (4) the traditional ad hoc and opportunistic approach to conservation. To overcome these barriers, we propose a resilience-based riverine conservation framework that includes: (1) assessing riverine resilience using indicator frameworks; (2) considering rivers as dynamically coupled social–ecological systems; (3) explicitly incorporating terrestrial–aquatic network connectivity into conservation decision-making; and (4) strategic systems planning using a novel resilience–conservation matrix as a tool. This framework has the potential to transform conservation practices around the globe to more effectively protect river systems and enhance their resilience to climate change and human development.

WIREs Water↗

USGS2016

GOES-derived fog and low cloud indices for coastal north and central California ecological analyses

Fog and low cloud cover (FLCC) changes the water, energy, and nutrient flux of coastal ecosystems. Easy-to-use FLCC data are needed to quantify the impacts of FLC on ecosystem dynamics during hot, dry Mediterranean climate summers. FLCC indices were generated from 26,000 hourly night and day FLCC maps derived from Geostationary Environmental Operational Satellite (GOES) data for June, July, August, and September, 1999- 2009 for coastal California, latitude 34.50°N, south of Monterey Bay, to latitude 41.95°N, north of Crescent City. Monthly FLCC average hours per day (h/d) range from < 2 to 18. Average FLCC over the ocean increases from north (9 h/d) to south (14 h/d) whereas FLCC over land is reversed. Over land, FLCC is highest where land juts into the prevailing NW winds and is lowest in the lee of major capes. FLCC advects furthest inland through low-lying NW ocean-facing valleys. At night hours of FLCC is higher more frequently on land than over the ocean. Interannual FLCC coefficient of variation shows long term geographic stability strongly associated with landform position. Contours delineating homogeneous zones of FLCC, derived from average decadal h/d FLCC, provide data to refine the commonly used term ‘fog belt.’ FLCC indices are available for download from the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative Climate Commons website. FLCC indices can be used to improve analyses of biogeographic and bioclimatic species distribution models, meteorological mechanisms driving FLCC patterns, ecohydrological investigations of evapotranspiration, solar energy feasibility studies, agricultural irrigation demand and viticultural ripening models.

Earth and Space Science↗

USGS2018

Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change

Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum ) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results demonstrate the utility in modeling intraspecific response to changing climate and they inform management and conservation strategies, by identifying haplotypes and geographic areas that may be most at risk, or most secure, under projected climate change.

Systematic Biology↗

USGS2016

Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: Climate change consequences for soil water resources

In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: 1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems and 2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, while changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big sagebrush regeneration and survival will be negatively impacted, potentially resulting in shifts in the relative abundance of big sagebrush plant functional groups. Our results also highlight the importance of assessing multiple GCMs to understand the range of climate change outcomes on ecohydrology, which was contingent on the GCM chosen.

Ecology↗

USGS2012

Experimentally derived salinity tolerance of hatchling Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) from the Everglades, Florida (USA)

In a laboratory setting, we tested the ability of 24 non-native, wild-caught hatchling Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) collected in the Florida Everglades to survive when given water containing salt to drink. After a one-month acclimation period in the laboratory, we grouped snakes into three treatments, giving them access to water that was fresh (salinity of 0, control), brackish (salinity of 10), or full-strength sea water (salinity of 35). Hatchlings survived about one month at the highest marine salinity and about five months at the brackish-water salinity; no control animals perished during the experiment. These results are indicative of a "worst-case scenario", as in the laboratory we denied access to alternate fresh-water sources that may be accessible in the wild (e.g., through rainfall). Therefore, our results may underestimate the potential of hatchling pythons to persist in saline habitats in the wild. Because of the effect of different salinity regimes on survival, predictions of ultimate geographic expansion by non-native Burmese pythons that consider salt water as barriers to dispersal for pythons may warrant re-evaluation, especially under global climate change and associated sea-level-rise scenarios.

Florida↗

USGS2021

The changes in species composition mediate direct effects of climate change on future fire regimes of boreal forests in northeastern China

Direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature rise, changes in seasonal precipitation, wind patterns and atmospheric stability) affect fire regimes of boreal forests by altering fire behaviour, fire seasons and fuel moisture. Climate change also alters species composition and fuel characteristics, which subsequently alter fire regimes. However, indirect effects of climate change are often simplified or neglected in the direct climate–fire relationship models and dynamic global vegetation models. This may result in high uncertainties associated with existing projections of fire regimes for climate change scenarios. Moreover, few studies have examined fire regime predictions beyond the 21st century, and consequently, how the fire regimes of boreal forests would respond to climate change at the long term (>100 years) are not clear. We develop a coupled modelling framework integrating direct and indirect effects of climate change to predict fire occurrence probability and burned area for boreal forests in northeastern China. We applied repeated measures ANOVA to quantify direct and indirect effects of climate change on fire regimes in the short (0–50 years), medium (60–100 years) and long term (150–200 years). Results showed that for the 21st century, direct effects of climate change are likely to exert a stronger influence on fire regimes than indirect effects. However, increases in fire occurrence probability and burned area will accelerate the transition of boreal forests to temperate forests in the period 2100–2200, and thereby reduce fire occurrence probability and burned area. This suggests that vegetation change will mediate direct effects of climate change on fire regimes of boreal forests at the long term. Synthesis and applications . Vegetation change will mediate direct effects of climate change on fire regimes of boreal forests at the long term. This finding suggested that policymakers may consider adaptive management by planting deciduous species to reduce fire occurrence probability and resistant management by reducing competition to promote boreal species under changing climate conditions.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2019

Conservation of temporary wetlands

Temporary wetlands are characterized by frequent drying resulting in a unique, highly specialized assemblage of often rare or specialized plant and animal species. They are found on all continents and in a variety of landscape settings. Although accurate estimates of the abundance of temporary wetlands are available in only a few countries, global estimations identify a decline in number and quality. The key environmental factors driving the structure of ecological communities in temporary wetlands are the duration, timing, frequency and predictability of the aquatic and dry phases, which varies greatly with region and hydrogeomorphic setting. Temporary wetlands have been historically neglected, but improved social awareness of the functions and values of, and increases in scientific interest, suggest that this is changing. They play an ecological role in both global cycles (i.e., CO 2 emissions) and biodiversity (in proportion to their size, they contribute disproportionately to regional and global biodiversity). Moreover, they provide valuable ecosystem services including wildlife habitat, nutrient flux to adjacent ecosystems, flood control, water filtration, and cultural services. Effective conservation of temporary wetlands requires addressing threats (i.e., inconsistent and inadequate regulatory protections; climate change; changes in land use) and management challenges (i.e., management at both local and landscape scales; incomplete understanding of the ecosystem services provided by them; the need to enhance inventories). The most suitable approaches for conserving temporary wetlands include (1) regulations or other forms of protection; (2) sustainable management; (3) restoration and creation; and (4) collaborative conservation.

Book chapter↗

USGS2024

Ecology of Lake Erie - Chemistry, plankton & planktivory: A synthesis

As with other large lake ecosystems worldwide, Lake Erie can be considered a moving target for management, owing to physicochemical and biological changes brought on by anthropogenic change, both planned (e.g. nutrient and fisheries management) and unplanned (e.g. climate change, invasive species, modified land-use activities). These changes have challenged efforts to conserve biodiversity, sustain exploitable resources, and maintain the integrity of services valued by society both within the Lake Erie basin and (Fraker et al., 2022; Fussell et al., 2016; Sinclair et al., 2021; Sinclair et al., 2023) and outside of it (Allan et al., 2013; Jenny et al., 2020; Sterner et al., 2017). Some of these changes and their ramifications for management were documented in the first of four AEHM special issues devoted to the Lake Erie ecosystem (the fourth issue of 2023, volume 26, issue 4; see overview by Ludsin et al., 2023). That special issue focused explicitly on nutrient inputs and availability in Lake Erie and the lower food web, including planktonic and benthic microbial (including cyanobacteria), algal, and invasive dreissenid mussel communities. Similar to the previous Lake Erie special issue, this second one has focused on documenting the state of the lake, providing ecological understanding that could potentially benefit management. While some overlap in topics exists between issues, the studies conducted herein were completely independent of those previous investigations and offer unique insights. Specifically, the contributions to this current issue center on: 1) dynamics of water chemistry in Lake Erie’s central basin (i.e. bottom hypoxia; Ackerman et al., 2024) and western basin (i.e. mercury; Starr et al., 2024); 2) changes in primary producer biomass (Lesht et al., 2024), cyanotoxins (i.e. microcystin; Zastepa et al., 2024), and water quality (e.g. water clarity and dissolved nutrients; Howell et al., 2024); and 3) larval fish foraging (i.e. Lake Whitefish; Coregonus clupeaformis; Amidon et al., 2024) and community structure and phenology (DeBruyne et al., 2024). Below we summarize the major findings of these papers and offer a synthetic perspective on the value of this research for understanding the state of Lake Erie and enhancing management.

Aquatic Ecosystem Health and Management↗

USGS2024

Fish bioenergetics modeling

A bioenergetics model for a fish is defined as a quantitative description of the fish's energy budget. Bioenergetics modeling can be applied to free-ranging fish in rivers, lakes, and oceans to estimate annual food consumption by fish populations; such applications have proven useful in managing fisheries. In addition, bioenergetics models have been used to better understand fish growth and consumption in ecosystems, to guide conservation management of endangered or threatened fish populations, to determine the importance of the role of fish in cycling nutrients within ecosystems, to predict fish growth and consumption under climate change , and to identify the important factors regulating contaminant accumulation in free-ranging fish. Over the past 60 years, fish bioenergetics modeling has led to significant advancements in both aquatic ecology, especially fish ecology, and fisheries management.

Book chapter↗

USGS2025

Suturing fragmented landscapes: Mosaic hybrid zones in plants may facilitate ecosystem resiliency

Many widespread plant taxa of western North America have diversified into phenotypically and genetically divergent lineages due to complex biogeographic histories across heterogeneous landscapes. Mosaic hybrid zones can form when geographically co-occurring, yet environmentally distinct, lineages cross-pollinate and form hybrids that occupy unique environmental niches absent of a geographic cline. This expands the total environmental space across which parental and hybrid individuals grow, resulting in larger, less fragmented geographic distributions. Here, we highlight hybridization mosaics across three study systems containing taxa critical to widespread plant communities in western North America: Ericameria nauseosa , Artemisia tridentata , and Sphaeralcea fendleri . The systems contain diverged taxa that co-occur across the landscape and hybridize readily. Hybridization among taxa has facilitated niche expansion into intermediate environments consistent with unique combinations of adaptive genetic variation, creating more continuity within each study system—study systems occupy ~820 to 270,000 km 2 more geographic area by virtue of hybridization. Furthermore, hybrids are predicted to play important roles in future climates, as they may occupy 8 to 475% larger distributions compared to present. Convergent patterns signal mosaic hybridization as an underappreciated mechanism with broad ecological and evolutionary ramifications. Leveraging mosaic hybridization may assist the creation of restoration management plans that aim to mitigate the deleterious effects of habitat fragmentation on ecosystems in the context of climate change.

western United States↗

USGS2007

Climate correlates of 20 years of trophic changes in a high-elevation riparian system

The consequences of climate change for ecosystem structure and function remain largely unknown. Here, I examine the ability of climate variation to explain long-term changes in bird and plant populations, as well as trophic interactions in a high-elevation riparian system in central Arizona, USA, based on 20 years of study. Abundances of dominant deciduous trees have declined dramatically over the 20 years, correlated with a decline in overwinter snowfall. Snowfall can affect overwinter presence of elk, whose browsing can significantly impact deciduous tree abundance. Thus, climate may affect the plant community indirectly through effects on herbivores, but may also act directly by influencing water availability for plants. Seven species of birds were found to initiate earlier breeding associated with an increase in spring temperature across years. The advance in breeding time did not affect starvation of young or clutch size. Earlier breeding also did not increase the length of the breeding season for single-brooded species, but did for multi-brooded species. Yet, none of these phenology-related changes was associated with bird population trends. Climate had much larger consequences for these seven bird species by affecting trophic levels below (plants) and above (predators) the birds. In particular, the climate-related declines in deciduous vegetation led to decreased abundance of preferred bird habitat and increased nest predation rates. In addition, summer precipitation declined over time, and drier summers also were further associated with greater nest predation in all species. The net result was local extinction and severe population declines in some previously common bird species, whereas one species increased strongly in abundance, and two species did not show clear population changes. These data indicate that climate can alter ecosystem structure and function through complex pathways that include direct and indirect effects on abundances and interactions of multiple trophic components. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗

USGS2015

Higher-order statistical moments and a procedure that detects potentially anomalous years as two alternative methods describing alterations in continuous environmental data

Statistics of central tendency and dispersion may not capture relevant or desired characteristics of the distribution of continuous phenomena and, thus, they may not adequately describe temporal patterns of change. Here, we present two methodological approaches that can help to identify temporal changes in environmental regimes. First, we use higher-order statistical moments (skewness and kurtosis) to examine potential changes of empirical distributions at decadal extents. Second, we adapt a statistical procedure combining a non-metric multidimensional scaling technique and higher density region plots to detect potentially anomalous years. We illustrate the use of these approaches by examining long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-influenced streams. In particular, we contrast predictions about thermal regime responses to changing climates and human-related water uses. Using these methods, we effectively diagnose years with unusual thermal variability and patterns in variability through time, as well as spatial variability linked to regional and local factors that influence stream temperature. Our findings highlight the complexity of responses of thermal regimes of streams and reveal their differential vulnerability to climate warming and human-related water uses. The two approaches presented here can be applied with a variety of other continuous phenomena to address historical changes, extreme events, and their associated ecological responses.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2013

Modeling mountain pine beetle disturbance in Glacier National Park using multiple lines of evidence

Temperate forest ecosystems are subject to various disturbances which contribute to ecological legacies that can have profound effects on the structure of the ecosystem. Impacts of disturbance can vary widely in extent, duration and severity over space and time. Given that global climate change is expected to increase rates of forest disturbance, an understanding of these events are critical in the interpretation of contemporary forest patterns and those of the near future. We seek to understand the impact of the 1970s mountain pine beetle outbreak on the landscape of Glacier National Park and investigate any connection between this event and subsequent decades of extensive wildfire. The lack of spatially explicit data on the mountain pine beetle disturbance represents a major data gap and inhibits our ability to test for correlations between outbreak severity and fire severity. To overcome this challenge, we utilized multiple lines of evidence to model forest canopy mortality as a proxy for outbreak severity. We used historical aerial and landscape photos, reports, aerial survey data, a six year collection of Landsat imagery and abiotic data in combination with regression analysis. The use of remotely sensed data is critical in large areas where subsequent disturbance (fire) has erased some of the evidence from the landscape. Results indicate that this method is successful in capturing the spatial heterogeneity of the outbreak in a topographically complex landscape. Furthermore, this study provides an example on the use of existing data to reduce levels of uncertainty associated with an historic disturbance.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2015

Sea-level rise modeling handbook: Resource guide for coastal land managers, engineers, and scientists

Global sea level is rising and may accelerate with continued fossil fuel consumption from industrial and population growth. In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted more than 30 training and feedback sessions with Federal, State, and nongovernmental organization (NGO) coastal managers and planners across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to evaluate user needs, potential benefits, current scientific understanding, and utilization of resource aids and modeling tools focused on sea-level rise. In response to the findings from the sessions, this sea-level rise modeling handbook has been designed as a guide to the science and simulation models for understanding the dynamics and impacts of sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems. The review herein of decision-support tools and predictive models was compiled from the training sessions, from online research, and from publications. The purpose of this guide is to describe and categorize the suite of data, methods, and models and their design, structure, and application for hindcasting and forecasting the potential impacts of sea-level rise in coastal ecosystems. The data and models cover a broad spectrum of disciplines involving different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting environmental change and ecosystem response. These data and models have not heretofore been synthesized, nor have appraisals been made of their utility or limitations. Some models are demonstration tools for non-experts, whereas others require more expert capacity to apply for any given park, refuge, or regional application. A simplified tabular context has been developed to list and contrast a host of decision-support tools and models from the ecological, geological, and hydrological perspectives. Criteria were established to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic datasets; physical and biological constraints and relations; datum characteristics of water and land components; utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios; and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. Coastal land managers, engineers, and scientists can benefit from this synthesis of tools and models that have been developed for projecting causes and consequences of sea-level change on the landscape and seascape.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2017

Direct and indirect controls on organic matter decomposition in four coastal wetland communities along a landscape salinity gradient

Coastal wetlands store more carbon than most ecosystems globally. As sea level rises, changes in flooding and salinity will potentially impact ecological functions, such as organic matter decomposition, that influence carbon storage. However, little is known about the mechanisms that control organic matter loss in coastal wetlands at the landscape scale. As sea level rises, how will the shift from fresh to salt-tolerant plant communities impact organic matter decomposition? Do long-term, plant-mediated, effects of sea-level rise differ from direct effects of elevated salinity and flooding? We identified internal and external factors that regulated indirect and direct pathways of sea-level rise impacts, respectively, along a landscape-scale salinity gradient that incorporated changes in wetland type (fresh, oligohaline, mesohaline and polyhaline marshes). We found that indirect and direct impacts of sea-level rise had opposing effects on organic matter decomposition. Salinity had an indirect effect on litter decomposition that was mediated through litter quality. Despite significant variation in environmental conditions along the landscape gradient, the best predictors of above- and below-ground litter decomposition were internal drivers, initial litter nitrogen content and initial litter lignin content respectively. Litter decay constants were greatest in the oligohaline marsh and declined with increasing salinity, and the fraction of litter remaining (asymptote) was greatest in the mesohaline marsh. In contrast, direct effects of salinity and flooding were positive. External drivers, salinity and flooding, stimulated cellulytic activity, which was highest in the polyhaline marsh. Synthesis . Our results indicate that as sea level rises, initial direct effects of salinity will stimulate decay of labile carbon, but over time as plant communities shift from fresh to polyhaline marsh, litter decay will decline, yielding greater potential for long-term carbon storage. These findings highlight the importance of quantifying carbon loss at multiple temporal scales, not only in coastal wetlands but also in other ecosystems where plant-mediated responses to climate change will have significant impacts on carbon cycling.

Journal of Ecology↗