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Numerical simulation of the groundwater-flow system in Chimacum Creek Basin and vicinity, Jefferson County, Washington

A groundwater-flow model was developed to evaluate potential future effects of growth and of water-management strategies on water resources in the Chimacum Creek Basin. The model covers an area of about 64 square miles (mi 2 ) on the Olympic Peninsula in northeastern Jefferson County, Washington. The Chimacum Creek Basin drains an area of about 53 mi 2 and consists of Chimacum Creek and its tributary East Fork Chimacum Creek, which converge near the town of Chimacum and discharge to Port Townsend Bay near the town of Irondale. The topography of the model area consists of north-south oriented, narrow, regularly spaced parallel ridges and valleys that are characteristic of fluted glaciated surfaces. Thick accumulations of peat occur along the axis of East Fork Chimacum Creek and provide rich soils for agricultural use. The study area is underlain by a north-thickening sequence of unconsolidated glacial (till and outwash) and interglacial (fluvial and lacustrine) deposits, and sedimentary and igneous bedrock units that crop out along the margins and the western interior of the model area. Six hydrogeologic units in the model area form the basis of the groundwater-flow model. They are represented by model layers UC (upper confining), UA (upper aquifer), MC (middle confining), LA (lower aquifer), LC (lower confining), and OE (bedrock). Groundwater flow in the Chimacum Creek Basin and vicinity was simulated using the groundwater-flow model, MODFLOW-2005. The finite-difference model grid comprises 245 columns, 313 rows, and 6 layers. Each model cell has a horizontal dimension of 200 × 200 feet (ft). The thickness of model layers varies throughout the model area and ranges from 5 ft in the non-bedrock units to more than 2,400 ft in the bedrock. Groundwater flow was simulated for steady-state conditions, which were simulated for calibration of the model using average recharge, discharge, and water levels for the 180-month period October 1994–September 2009. The model as calibrated has a mean residual of 4.5 ft and a standard error on the mean of 2.1 ft for heads, and 0.64±0.42 cubic feet per second for streamflows. After the model was calibrated, a Current Conditions simulation was developed to reflect current (October 2008–September 2009) hydrologic conditions, with representative pumping, return flows, and “normal” recharge (based on National Weather Service average precipitation for 1981 to 2010). The Current Conditions simulation was used to estimate current flow quantities, and as a basis to compare other simulations.Simulated steady-state inflow to the model area from precipitation and secondary recharge, or “return flow,” was 16,347 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr); groundwater inflow from other basins to the north of the model boundary was 1,518 acre-ft/yr (net, 3,114 acre-ft/yr in and 1,596 acre-ft/yr out) and simulated inflow from lake leakage was 613 acre-ft/yr (net, 684 acre-ft/yr in and 71 acre-ft/yr out). Simulated outflow from the model primarily was through discharge to Puget Sound (10,022 acre-ft/yr), streams (5,424 acre-ft/yr ), springs and seeps (1,521 acre-ft/yr), and through withdrawals from wells (1,506 acre-ft/yr). Four simulations were formulated using the calibrated model—one to represent current conditions (2009, the end of the period used for calibration) and three to provide representative examples of how the model can be used to evaluate the relative effects of potential changes in groundwater withdrawals and consumptive use on groundwater levels and stream base flows: Probable Future Use, based on population projections; Full Beneficial Use, based on Jefferson County Public Utility District #1 water rights; Sanitary Sewer, based on eliminating septic return flows in the Urban Growth Area. Particle tracking was used to assess flowpaths from sources and to sinks, and the effects of the presence of irrigation wells and their depths was assessed.

Washington↗

Estimation of regional flow-duration curves for Indiana and Illinois

Flow-duration curves (FDCs) of daily streamflow are useful for many applications in water resources planning and management but must be estimated at ungaged sites. One common technique for estimating FDCs at ungaged sites in a given region is to use equations obtained by linear regression of FDC quantiles against multiple basin characteristics that can be computed by means of a geographic information system (GIS) computer program. In this study, such regional regression equations for estimating FDC quantiles were computed at the 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 75, 80, 90, 95, 98, 99, 99.5, 99.8, and 99.9-percent exceedance probabilities for rural, unregulated streams in Indiana and Illinois with temporally stationary records, using data through September 30, 2007. The approach used accounts for censored values below 0.01 cubic feet per second, which are observed at exceedance probabilities as low as 70 percent (that is, occurring at least 30 percent of the time). The basin characteristics used are suitable for computation by the USGS Web-based application, StreamStats, and are available for all U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region V states and the larger Great Lakes area, with some specific local exceptions. Indiana and Illinois were each divided into three regions, and a different set of equations for estimating FDC quantiles was computed for each region. The error of estimation of the FDC quantiles, measured as the mean square residual in log space converted to a percentage of the quantile, varies somewhat among regions and varies strongly with exceedance probability, with a minimum error of 10 to 20 percent at an exceedance probability of 5 or 10 percent, but rises to 17 to 38 percent at the high-flow end of the FDCs (the 0.1-percent quantile) and 100 to 745 percent at the low-flow end. For comparison, errors of estimation also were computed for FDC quantiles estimated by linear regression on drainage area alone and by using the drainage-area ratio (DAR) method. Three criteria, the nearest basin centroid and two others termed “strict” and “broad”, were used to select index stations for the DAR method. The “strict” and “broad” criteria put conditions on the basin centroid distance and the range of their drainage-area ratios, and the errors were averaged for all index station pairs satisfying each criterion. The use of the simpler DAR method usually resulted in higher errors of estimation compared to the linear regression equations with multiple basin characteristics, except occasionally in the case of the DAR method with the strict index station selection criterion, a criterion that is rarely possible to satisfy in practice. An example application of the estimated equations to one gaged and a few ungaged locations in a watershed in the study area is included to illustrate the steps required. These steps are the computation of the basin characteristics and, using those characteristics together with the estimated equations, the computation of the FDC quantiles and their uncertainties.

Illinois, Indiana↗

Methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter F in Montana StreamStats

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to update methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on peak-flow data at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2011. The methods allow estimation of peak-flow frequencies (that is, peak-flow magnitudes, in cubic feet per second, associated with annual exceedance probabilities of 66.7, 50, 42.9, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent) at ungaged sites. The annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Regional regression analysis is a primary focus of Chapter F of this Scientific Investigations Report, and regression equations for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented. The regression equations are based on analysis of peak-flow frequencies and basin characteristics at 537 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana and were developed using generalized least squares regression or weighted least squares regression. All of the data used in calculating basin characteristics that were included as explanatory variables in the regression equations were developed for and are available through the USGS StreamStats application (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/) for Montana. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application that was created by the USGS to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resource planning and management. The primary purpose of the Montana StreamStats application is to provide estimates of basin characteristics and streamflow characteristics for user-selected ungaged sites on Montana streams. The regional regression equations presented in this report chapter can be conveniently solved using the Montana StreamStats application. Selected results from this study were compared with results of previous studies. For most hydrologic regions, the regression equations reported for this study had lower mean standard errors of prediction (in percent) than the previously reported regression equations for Montana. The equations presented for this study are considered to be an improvement on the previously reported equations primarily because this study (1) included 13 more years of peak-flow data; (2) included 35 more streamflow-gaging stations than previous studies; (3) used a detailed geographic information system (GIS)-based definition of the regulation status of streamflow-gaging stations, which allowed better determination of the unregulated peak-flow records that are appropriate for use in the regional regression analysis; (4) included advancements in GIS and remote-sensing technologies, which allowed more convenient calculation of basin characteristics and investigation of many more candidate basin characteristics; and (5) included advancements in computational and analytical methods, which allowed more thorough and consistent data analysis. This report chapter also presents other methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites. Two methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites located on the same streams as streamflow-gaging stations are described. Additionally, envelope curves relating maximum recorded annual peak flows to contributing drainage area for each of the eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented and compared to a national envelope curve. In addition to providing general information on characteristics of large peak flows, the regional envelope curves can be used to assess the reasonableness of peak-flow frequency estimates determined using the regression equations.

Montana↗

Selected low-flow frequency statistics for continuous-record streamgages in Georgia, 2013

This report presents the annual and monthly minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflows with the 10-year recurrence interval (1Q10 and 7Q10) for 197 continuous-record streamgages in Georgia. Streamgages used in the study included active and discontinued stations having a minimum of 10 complete climatic years of record as of September 30, 2013. The 1Q10 and 7Q10 flow statistics were computed for 85 streamgages on unregulated streams with minimal diversions upstream, 43 streamgages on regulated streams, and 69 streamgages known, or considered, to be affected by varying degrees of diversions upstream. Descriptive information for each of these streamgages, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) station number, station name, latitude, longitude, county, drainage area, and period of record analyzed also is presented. Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine the statistical significance of trends in annual and monthly minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows for the 197 streamgages. Significant negative trends in the minimum annual 1-day and 7-day average streamflow were indicated for 77 of the 197 streamgages. Many of these significant negative trends are due to the period of record ending during one of the recent droughts in Georgia, particularly those streamgages with record through the 2013 water year. Long-term unregulated streamgages with 70 or more years of record indicate significant negative trends in the annual minimum 7-day average flow for central and southern Georgia. Watersheds for some of these streamgages have experienced minimal human impact, thus indicating that the significant negative trends observed in flows at the long-term streamgages may be influenced by changing climatological conditions. A Kendall-tau trend analysis of the annual air temperature and precipitation totals for Georgia indicated no significant trends. A comprehensive analysis of causes of the trends in annual and monthly minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows in central and southern Georgia is outside the scope of this study. Further study is needed to determine some of the causes, including both climatological and human impacts, of the significant negative trends in annual minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows in central and southern Georgia. To assess the changes in the annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 statistics over time for long-term continuous streamgages with significant trends in record, the annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 statistics were computed on a decadal accumulated basis for 39 streamgages having 40 or more years of record that indicated a significant trend. Records from most of the streamgages showed a decline in 7Q10 statistics for the decades of 1980–89, 1990–99, and 2000–09 because of the recent droughts in Georgia. Twenty four of the 39 streamgages had complete records from 1980 to 2010, and records from 23 of these gages exhibited a decline in the 7Q10 statistics during this period, ranging from –6.3 to –76.2 percent with a mean of –27.3 percent. No attempts were made during this study to adjust streamflow records or statistical analyses on the basis of trends. The monthly and annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 flow statistics for the entire period of record analyzed in the study are incorporated into the USGS StreamStatsDB, which is a database accessible to users through the recently released USGS StreamStats application for Georgia. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system that provides users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resources planning and management, and for engineering design applications, such as the design of bridges. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and other information for user-selected streamgages.

Georgia↗

Suspended-sediment concentrations, bedload, particle sizes, surrogate measurements, and annual sediment loads for selected sites in the lower Minnesota River Basin, water years 2011 through 2016

Accurate measurements of fluvial sediment are important for assessing stream ecological health, calculating flood levels, computing sediment budgets, and managing and protecting water resources. Sediment-enriched rivers in Minnesota are a concern among Federal, State, and local governments because turbidity and sediment-laden waters are the leading impairments and affect more than 6,000 miles of rivers in Minnesota. The suspended sediment in the lower Minnesota River is deleterious, contributing about 75 to 90 percent of the suspended sediment being deposited into Lake Pepin. The Saint Paul District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Lower Minnesota River Watershed District collaborate to maintain a navigation channel on the lower 14.7 miles of the Minnesota River through scheduled dredging operations. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has adopted a sediment-reduction strategy to reduce sediment in the Minnesota River by 90 percent by 2040. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, and the Lower Minnesota River Watershed District, collected suspended-sediment, bedload, and particle-size samples at five sites in the lower Minnesota River Basin during water years 2011 through 2014 and surrogate measurements of acoustic backscatter at one of these sites on the lower Minnesota River during water years 2012 through 2016 to quantify sediment loads and improve understanding of sediment-transport relations. Annual sediment loads were computed for calendar years 2011 through 2014. Data collected from water years 2011 through 2014 indicated that two tributaries, Le Sueur River and High Island Creek, had the highest sediment yield and concentrations of suspended sediment. These tributaries also had greater stream gradients than the sites on the Minnesota River. Suspended fines were greater than suspended sand at all sites in the study area. The range of median particle sizes matched the range for stream gradients from greatest to smallest. Bedload ranged from 3 to 20 percent of the total load at the Le Sueur River, Minnesota River at Mankato, and High Island Creek and was less than 1 percent of the total load at the Minnesota River near Jordan and at Fort Snelling State Park. The reach of the Minnesota River between Mankato and Jordan is a major source of sediment, with the sediment yield at Jordan being two and a half times greater than at Mankato. Between Jordan and Fort Snelling, the sediment yield decreases substantially, which indicates that the Minnesota River in this reach is a sink for sediment. Surrogate measurements (acoustic backscatter) collected with suspended-sediment concentration data from water years 2012 through 2016 from the Minnesota River at Fort Snelling State Park indicated strong relations between the acoustic backscatter and suspended-sediment concentrations. These results point to the dynamic nature of sediment aggradation, degradation, and transport in the Minnesota River Basin. The analyses described in this report will improve the understanding of sediment-transport relations and sediment budgets in the Minnesota River Basin.

Minnesota↗

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics and mean annual flow for ungaged locations on streams in North Georgia

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division, developed regional regression equations for estimating selected low-flow frequency and mean annual flow statistics for ungaged streams in north Georgia that are not substantially affected by regulation, diversions, or urbanization. Selected low-flow frequency statistics and basin characteristics for 56 streamgage locations within north Georgia and 75 miles beyond the State’s borders in Alabama, Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina were combined to form the final dataset used in the regional regression analysis. Because some of the streamgages in the study recorded zero flow, the final regression equations were developed using weighted left-censored regression analysis to analyze the flow data in an unbiased manner, with weights based on the number of years of record. The set of equations includes the annual minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflow with the 10-year recurrence interval (referred to as 1Q10 and 7Q10), monthly 7Q10, and mean annual flow. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area, mean annual precipitation, and relief ratio for the selected low-flow frequency statistics and drainage area and mean annual precipitation for mean annual flow. The average standard error of estimate was 13.7 percent for the mean annual flow regression equation and ranged from 26.1 to 91.6 percent for the selected low-flow frequency equations. The equations, which are based on data from streams with little to no flow alterations, can be used to provide estimates of the natural flows for selected ungaged stream locations in the area of Georgia north of the Fall Line. The regression equations are not to be used to estimate flows for streams that have been altered by the effects of major dams, surface-water withdrawals, groundwater withdrawals (pumping wells), diversions, or wastewater discharges. The regression equations should be used only for ungaged sites with drainage areas between 1.67 and 576 square miles, mean annual precipitation between 47.6 and 81.6 inches, and relief ratios between 0.146 and 0.607; these are the ranges of the explanatory variables used to develop the equations. An attempt was made to develop regional regression equations for the area of Georgia south of the Fall Line by using the same approach used during this study for north Georgia; however, the equations resulted with high average standard errors of estimates and poorly predicted flows below 0.5 cubic foot per second, which may be attributed to the karst topography common in that area. The final regression equations developed from this study are planned to be incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats program. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system that provides users with access to an assortment of analytical tools useful for water-resources planning and management, and for engineering design applications, such as the design of bridges. The StreamStats program provides streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for U.S. Geological Survey streamgage locations and ungaged sites of interest. StreamStats also can compute basin characteristics and provide estimates of streamflow statistics for ungaged sites when users select the location of a site along any stream in Georgia.

Georgia↗

Streamflow characteristics and trends along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages along Soldier Creek in northeast Kansas were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends. This information is required by the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to assess annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow. Annual mean streamflows along Soldier Creek were characterized by substantial year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trends. On average, annual mean base flow accounted for about 20 percent of annual mean streamflow. Mean monthly flows followed a general seasonal pattern that included peak values in spring and low values in winter. Annual peak flows, which were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability, were most likely to occur in May and June and least likely to occur during November through February. With the exception of a weak yet statistically significant increasing trend at the Soldier Creek near Topeka, Kansas, streamgage, there were no pronounced long-term trends in annual peak flows. Annual 1-day, 30-day, and 90-day mean minimum flows were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trend. During an extreme drought, as was the case in the mid-1950s, there may be zero flow in Soldier Creek continuously for a period of one to several months.

Kansas↗

Comparability of river suspended-sediment sampling and laboratory analysis methods

Accurate measurements of suspended sediment, a leading water-quality impairment in many Minnesota rivers, are important for managing and protecting water resources; however, water-quality standards for suspended sediment in Minnesota are based on grab field sampling and total suspended solids (TSS) laboratory analysis methods that have underrepresented concentrations of suspended sediment in rivers compared to U.S. Geological Survey equal-width-increment or equal-discharge-increment (EWDI) field sampling and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) laboratory analysis methods. Because of this underrepresentation, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, collected concurrent grab and EWDI samples at eight sites to compare results obtained using different combinations of field sampling and laboratory analysis methods. Study results determined that grab field sampling and TSS laboratory analysis results were biased substantially low compared to EWDI sampling and SSC laboratory analysis results, respectively. Differences in both field sampling and laboratory analysis methods caused grab and TSS methods to be biased substantially low. The difference in laboratory analysis methods was slightly greater than field sampling methods. Sand-sized particles had a strong effect on the comparability of the field sampling and laboratory analysis methods. These results indicated that grab field sampling and TSS laboratory analysis methods fail to capture most of the sand being transported by the stream. The results indicate there is less of a difference among samples collected with grab field sampling and analyzed for TSS and concentration of fines in SSC. Even though differences are present, the presence of strong correlations between SSC and TSS concentrations provides the opportunity to develop site specific relations to address transport processes not captured by grab field sampling and TSS laboratory analysis methods.

Minnesota↗

Simulation of the impacts of spring diversions on streamflow in the Strawberry Creek watershed, San Bernardino County, California, using an integrated hydrological model

The Strawberry Creek watershed, in the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California, features a group of natural springs known as Arrowhead Springs that have been augmented with diversions in the form of sub-horizontal borings and tunnels. Understanding the effects of these structures on streamflow through groundwater capture is crucial for managing surface-water resources in this watershed. In this study, we constructed the Strawberry Creek integrated hydrological model to increase this understanding. The Strawberry Creek integrated hydrological model is an integrated surface runoff and groundwater model, GSFLOW to simulate surface runoff and infiltration and groundwater flow. The model has 263 rows and 176 columns in each of its three layers. The model area includes the Strawberry Creek and four adjacent watersheds. The precipitation-runoff modeling system was calibrated using two streamflow gaging stations, and the groundwater and surface-water flow model was calibrated to the reported spring diversion discharge and a sparse number of groundwater-level measurements. The Strawberry Creek integrated hydrological model was run with and without diversions active, and simulated streamflow was compared, indicating that in the headwaters of Strawberry Creek, about 35 percent of the diversion flow was captured from base flow.

California↗

Geohydrologic Framework of Recharge and Seawater Intrusion in the Pajaro Valley, Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, California

Pajaro Valley is a coastal watershed of 160 square miles located along Monterey Bay north of Elkhorn Slough and south of the city of Santa Cruz. The valley has been predominantly developed for agriculture since the late 1800s. In 1984 the Pajaro Valley Water Management Agency (PVWMA) was formed and was delegated with the responsibility of the management of the water resources within the Pajaro Valley by the State of California. About 84 percent of the water is used for agriculture and 16 percent is used for industrial and municipal water supply; almost all of the demand is supplied by ground water. Ground-water pumpage varies with seasonal and climatic periods. The alluvial aquifers are composed of Quaternary- and Tertiary-aged sediments that are layered marine and terrestrial coarse-grained deposits separated by extensive fine-grained deposits that potentially restrict vertical movement of ground water and seawater intrusion in the coastal subareas. The coarse-grained deposits, which persist over large areas, control pumpage and related seawater intrusion. The Aromas Sand crops out throughout the north and central parts of the PVWMA area and offshore on the continental shelf and in Monterey submarine canyon. Because many of the wells in the coastal and inland subregions are screened at depths of 200 to 400 feet below land surface, a direct avenue is provided for seawater intrusion through the coarse-grained deposits of the shallower alluvium and Aromas Sand. Geophysical logs from monitoring wells indicate discrete zones of saline water that are related to pumpage and seawater intrusion in the aquifers of the shallower alluvium and upper Aromas Sand in the upper-aquifer system and to deeper saline waters in the lower Aromas Sand within the lower-aquifer system. The precipitation data indicate that there were at least nine dry and nine wet periods that range from 2 to 19 years during the period of record, 1880?1997. The ground-water pumpage, runoff, streamflow and related water quality of streamflow also vary with seasonal and climatic periods. Recharge occurs from deep percolation of precipitation and from infiltration of streamflow. Streamflow originates from local runoff and from outside the valley as inflow from the Pajaro River. Although partly regulated, streamflow in the Pajaro River at Chittenden is less than 200 cubic feet per second 88 percent of the time and is less than 12 cubic feet per second 50 percent of the time. Streamflow water-quality data suggest that there may be several sources of poor-quality water that contribute to elevated chloride, sulfate, and nitrate concentrations in streamflow. The poor water quality occurring during lower streamflows indicates that low flows may be an additional source of salinity for ground-water recharge as streamflow infiltration along the Pajaro River. The geochemical data from this study indicate that the two main sources of recharge are deep percolation of local runoff and streamflow infiltration of Pajaro River water. The geophysical and geochemical data suggest that only the shallow alluvial aquifer and parts of the upper Aromas Sand that constitute the upper-aquifer system are being replenished by recent recharge in the coastal areas of Pajaro Valley and represent the renewable ground-water resources. These data also suggest that there is very little vertical flow through the layered aquifer systems in the coastal regions. The confining aquitards are laterally extensive but may be missing in places owing to fluvial erosion or offsetting by fault movement. Geochemical and geophysical data indicate that the ground water from some parts of the upper and lower Aromas Sand in the coastal regions was recharged thousands of years ago and may, in part, represent nonrenewable ground-water resources. The analysis of major-ion chemistry, in combination with isotope and trace-element/chloride ratios, indicates that the coastal ground-water and surface-water samples

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Water-data program of the US Geological Survey in Kansas, fiscal year 1983

The U.S. Geological Survey is the principal Federal agency responsible for the collection of hydrologic data needed for the planning, development, use, and management of the water resources in Kansas. Hydrologic-data collection by the U.S. Geological Survey in Kansas began in 1895. The fiscal-year 1983 water-data program, operated in cooperation with several Federal , State, and local agencies, included 270 stations for collection of river, lake, and reservoir data, 1,940 wells for collection of ground-water data; 53 sampling stations and 215 wells for collection of water-quality data. This report provides a detailed description of the water-data program, including coordination and funding, data-collection activities, quality-assurance plans, availability of data, network design, and future needs for water data. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Estimated availability of water from stratified-drift aquifers in the Concord River Basin, Massachusetts

An understanding of water availability in the Concord River Basin for public and private supply requires an understanding of the interaction between surface-water and ground-water systems. This understanding is needed because excessive ground-water withdrawals may reduce streamflows to unacceptable levels. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Management, Office of Water Resources, studied the Concord River Basin to estimate the volume of water available from stratified-drift aquifers. A combined hydrograph-separation and streamflow-duration-curve analysis indicates that 20.8 million cubic feet of water could be withdrawn from the stratified-drift aquifer above the South Acton streamflow-gaging station during a 102-day period of no recharge before streamflow would be reduced to a prescribed minimum level. This volume, which equals 2.85 million cubic feet per square mile of stratified drift, was used to estimate volume of available water in 17 aquifer areas in the Concord River Basin. The total volume of available water in the Concord River Basin is estimated to be 561 million cubic feet. Finite-difference ground-water-flow models for the River Meadow Brook aquifer area and the Sudbury and Concord aquifer area quantified the current and potential water availability. The results of three withdrawal simulations for each aquifer area indicate that the 1989 ground-water withdrawal rates would not exceed the volume of water that would be available during a 102-day period of no recharge if water-table drawdowns were not considered. However, results do indicate that volumes of withdrawn water would exceed the available water in the two aquifer areas if maximum lowering of the water table as a percentage of total saturated thickness were 10 and 65 percent at existing and hypothetical wells.

Massachusetts↗

Application of nonlinear-regression methods to a ground-water flow model of the Albuquerque Basin, New Mexico

This report documents the application of nonlinear-regression methods to a numerical model of ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin, New Mexico. In the Albuquerque Basin, ground water is the primary source for most water uses. Ground-water withdrawal has steadily increased since the 1940's, resulting in large declines in water levels in the Albuquerque area. A ground-water flow model was developed in 1994 and revised and updated in 1995 for the purpose of managing basin ground- water resources. In the work presented here, nonlinear-regression methods were applied to a modified version of the previous flow model. Goals of this work were to use regression methods to calibrate the model with each of six different configurations of the basin subsurface and to assess and compare optimal parameter estimates, model fit, and model error among the resulting calibrations. The Albuquerque Basin is one in a series of north trending structural basins within the Rio Grande Rift, a region of Cenozoic crustal extension. Mountains, uplifts, and fault zones bound the basin, and rock units within the basin include pre-Santa Fe Group deposits, Tertiary Santa Fe Group basin fill, and post-Santa Fe Group volcanics and sediments. The Santa Fe Group is greater than 14,000 feet (ft) thick in the central part of the basin. During deposition of the Santa Fe Group, crustal extension resulted in development of north trending normal faults with vertical displacements of as much as 30,000 ft. Ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin occurs primarily in the Santa Fe Group and post-Santa Fe Group deposits. Water flows between the ground-water system and surface-water bodies in the inner valley of the basin, where the Rio Grande, a network of interconnected canals and drains, and Cochiti Reservoir are located. Recharge to the ground-water flow system occurs as infiltration of precipitation along mountain fronts and infiltration of stream water along tributaries to the Rio Grande; subsurface flow from adjacent regions; irrigation and septic field seepage; and leakage through the Rio Grande, canal, and Cochiti Reservoir beds. Ground water is discharged from the basin by withdrawal; evapotranspiration; subsurface flow; and flow to the Rio Grande, canals, and drains. The transient, three-dimensional numerical model of ground-water flow to which nonlinear-regression methods were applied simulates flow in the Albuquerque Basin from 1900 to March 1995. Six different basin subsurface configurations are considered in the model. These configurations are designed to test the effects of (1) varying the simulated basin thickness, (2) including a hypothesized hydrogeologic unit with large hydraulic conductivity in the western part of the basin (the west basin high-K zone), and (3) substantially lowering the simulated hydraulic conductivity of a fault in the western part of the basin (the low-K fault zone). The model with each of the subsurface configurations was calibrated using a nonlinear least- squares regression technique. The calibration data set includes 802 hydraulic-head measurements that provide broad spatial and temporal coverage of basin conditions, and one measurement of net flow from the Rio Grande and drains to the ground-water system in the Albuquerque area. Data are weighted on the basis of estimates of the standard deviations of measurement errors. The 10 to 12 parameters to which the calibration data as a whole are generally most sensitive were estimated by nonlinear regression, whereas the remaining model parameter values were specified. Results of model calibration indicate that the optimal parameter estimates as a whole are most reasonable in calibrations of the model with with configurations 3 (which contains 1,600-ft-thick basin deposits and the west basin high-K zone), 4 (which contains 5,000-ft-thick basin de

New Mexico↗

On the downscaling of actual evapotranspiration maps based on combination of MODIS and landsat-based actual evapotranspiration estimates

Downscaling is one of the important ways of utilizing the combined benefits of the high temporal resolution of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images and fine spatial resolution of Landsat images. We have evaluated the output regression with intercept method and developed the Linear with Zero Intercept (LinZI) method for downscaling MODIS-based monthly actual evapotranspiration (AET) maps to the Landsat-scale monthly AET maps for the Colorado River Basin for 2010. We used the 8-day MODIS land surface temperature product (MOD11A2) and 328 cloud-free Landsat images for computing AET maps and downscaling. The regression with intercept method does have limitations in downscaling if the slope and intercept are computed over a large area. A good agreement was obtained between downscaled monthly AET using the LinZI method and the eddy covariance measurements from seven flux sites within the Colorado River Basin. The mean bias ranged from −16 mm (underestimation) to 22 mm (overestimation) per month, and the coefficient of determination varied from 0.52 to 0.88. Some discrepancies between measured and downscaled monthly AET at two flux sites were found to be due to the prevailing flux footprint. A reasonable comparison was also obtained between downscaled monthly AET using LinZI method and the gridded FLUXNET dataset. The downscaled monthly AET nicely captured the temporal variation in sampled land cover classes. The proposed LinZI method can be used at finer temporal resolution (such as 8 days) with further evaluation. The proposed downscaling method will be very useful in advancing the application of remotely sensed images in water resources planning and management.

Remote Sensing↗

Using multi-source satellite data for lake level modelling in ungauged basins: A case study for Lake Turkana, East Africa

Managing limited surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where ground-based data are either limited or unavailable. Direct or indirect measurements of surface water resources through remote sensing offer several advantages of monitoring in ungauged basins. A physical based hydrologic technique to monitor lake water levels in ungauged basins using multi-source satellite data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, a digital elevation model, and other data is presented. This approach is applied to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Modelling results showed that the model can reasonably capture all the patterns and seasonal variations of the lake water level fluctuations. A composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data is used for model calibration (1998-2000) and model validation (2001-2009). Validation results showed that model-based lake levels are in good agreement with observed satellite altimetry data. Compared to satellite altimetry data, the Pearson's correlation coefficient was found to be 0.81 during the validation period. The model efficiency estimated using NSCE is found to be 0.93, 0.55 and 0.66 for calibration, validation and combined periods, respectively. Further, the model-based estimates showed a root mean square error of 0.62 m and mean absolute error of 0.46 m with a positive mean bias error of 0.36 m for the validation period (2001-2009). These error estimates were found to be less than 15 % of the natural variability of the lake, thus giving high confidence on the modelled lake level estimates. The approach presented in this paper can be used to (a) simulate patterns of lake water level variations in data scarce regions, (b) operationally monitor lake water levels in ungauged basins, (c) derive historical lake level information using satellite rainfall and evapotranspiration data, and (d) augment the information provided by the satellite altimetry systems on changes in lake water levels. ?? Author(s) 2011.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions↗

Spatial and seasonal responses of precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins to ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole modes: Implications for flooding and drought

We evaluated the spatial and seasonal responses of precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins as modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) modes using Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) full data reanalysis of monthly global land-surface precipitation data from 1901 to 2010 with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. The GPCC monthly total precipitation climatology targeting the period 1951–2000 was used to compute gridded monthly anomalies for the entire time period. The gridded monthly anomalies were averaged for the years influenced by combinations of climate modes. Occurrences of El Niño alone significantly reduce (88% of the long-term average (LTA)) precipitation during the monsoon months in the western and southeastern Ganges Basin. In contrast, occurrences of La Niña and co-occurrences of La Niña and negative IOD events significantly enhance (110 and 109% of LTA in the Ganges and Brahmaputra Basin, respectively) precipitation across both basins. When El Niño co-occurs with positive IOD events, the impacts of El Niño on the basins' precipitation diminishes. When there is no active ENSO or IOD events (occurring in 41 out of 110 years), precipitation remains below average (95% of LTA) in the agriculturally intensive areas of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Western Nepal in the Ganges Basin, whereas precipitation remains average to above average (104% of LTA) across the Brahmaputra Basin. This pattern implies that a regular water deficit is likely, especially in the Ganges Basin, with implications for the agriculture sector due to its reliance on consistent rainfall for successful production. Historically, major droughts occurred during El Niño and co-occurrences of El Niño and positive IOD events, while major flooding occurred during La Niña and co-occurrences of La Niña and negative IOD events in the basins. This observational analysis will facilitate well-informed decision making in minimizing natural hazard risks and climate impacts on agriculture, and supports development of strategies ensuring optimized use of water resources in best management practice under a changing climate.

Brahmaputra Basin, Ganges Basin↗

StreamStats: a U.S. geological survey web site for stream information

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a Web application, named StreamStats, for providing streamflow statistics, such as the 100-year flood and the 7-day, 10-year low flow, to the public. Statistics can be obtained for data-collection stations and for ungaged sites. Streamflow statistics are needed for water-resources planning and management; for design of bridges, culverts, and flood-control structures; and for many other purposes. StreamStats users can point and click on data-collection stations shown on a map in their Web browser window to obtain previously determined streamflow statistics and other information for the stations. Users also can point and click on any stream shown on the map to get estimates of streamflow statistics for ungaged sites. StreamStats determines the watershed boundaries and measures physical and climatic characteristics of the watersheds for the ungaged sites by use of a Geographic Information System (GIS), and then it inserts the characteristics into previously determined regression equations to estimate the streamflow statistics. Compared to manual methods, StreamStats reduces the average time needed to estimate streamflow statistics for ungaged sites from several hours to several minutes.

Conference Paper↗

Comparability of different river suspended sediment sampling and laboratory analysis methods and the effect of sand

Accurate measurements of suspended sediment, a leading water-quality impairment in many rivers, are important for managing and protecting water resources; however, water quality standards for suspended sediment in Minnesota are based on grab field sampling and total suspended solids (TSS) laboratory analysis methods. These methods have underrepresented concentrations of suspended sediment in rivers compared to U.S. Geological Survey equal-width increment or equal-discharge-increment (EWDI) field sampling and suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) laboratory analysis methods. Because of this underrepresentation, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, collected concurrent grab and EWDI samples at eight sites to compare results obtained using different combinations of field sampling and laboratory analysis methods. Study results determined that grab field sampling and TSS laboratory analysis results were biased substantially low compared to EWDI sampling and SSC laboratory analysis results, respectively. Differences in both field sampling and laboratory analysis methods caused grab and TSS methods to be biased substantially low. The difference in laboratory analysis methods was slightly greater than field sampling methods. Sand-sized particles had a strong effect on the comparability of the field sampling and laboratory analysis methods. These results indicated that grab field sampling and TSS laboratory analysis methods fail to capture most of the sand being transported by the stream. The results indicate there is less of a difference among samples collected with grab field sampling and analyzed for TSS and concentration of fines in SSC. Even though differences are present, the presence of strong correlations between SSC and TSS concentrations provides the opportunity to develop site specific relations to address transport processes not captured by grab field sampling and TSS laboratory analysis methods.

Minnesota↗