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At least 847 records · Page 47Linked to original sources

Deposition potential and flow-response dynamics of emergent sandbars in a braided river

Sandbars are ubiquitous in sandy‐braided rivers throughout the world. In the Great Plains of the United States, recovery and expansion of emergent sandbar habitat (ESH) has been a priority in lowland rivers where the natural extent of sandbars has been degraded. Recovery efforts are aimed at protection of populations of the interior least tern ( Sterna antillarum ) and piping plover ( Charadrius melodus ). But quantitative observations of deposition and erosion dynamics of populations of sandbars across long segments of rivers are rare. We present a three‐part case study which used Bayesian regression models to examine relations between hydrology, channel morphology, and ESH responses in the Platte River, eastern Nebraska. Logistic regression indicates presence of ESH is positively related to the Parker, (1976) stability criterion and a gradient in sediment transport mode, and negatively related to presence of vegetation. Hierarchical linear regression modeling shows direct coupling between sandbar top‐surface height and formative flood magnitude, but the gap between formative flood stage and sandbar top‐surface increases with increasing discharge. Finally, linear regression modeling of sandbar erosion demonstrates rates of ESH erosion are on the order of 10 −1 ha/day during high‐flow periods and 10 −2 during low‐flow periods, but sandbar persistence is largely a function of sandbar starting size. The collective observations highlight the importance of large floods (>3‐year recurrence) in creating very large sandbars that persist as high‐quality ESH over periods of years whereas lower‐magnitude, more‐frequent flood events create lower‐quality ESH that typically does not persist into the following nesting season.

Nebraska

Morphological computation of dune evolution with equilibrium and non-equilibrium sediment-transport models

This paper presents an exploratory study that comprises the implementation and comparison of different approaches and parameterization of sediment transport mechanisms in a process-based morphological model for simulating river dunes. The purpose of this study was to assess the underlying physical processes associated with sediment transport and dune evolution simulated by the model with two different bedload transport models: a non-equilibrium approach considering saltation distance and an equilibrium approach with the incorporation of the effect of the local bed slope. The advancement of this study is that it comprised detailed analysis of the bed shear stress and sediment transport over a dune during time varying flows, comparing both transport models and revealing distinctive transient features of bedload transport and dune evolution. We also improved a non-equilibrium transport model by incorporating a formulation for sediment saltation distance as a length-scale. Using both sediment transport approaches, the morphological model was applied to replicate a large-scale field experiment. Notably, the model yielded the quasi-equilibrium dune feature reasonably well using either sediment-transport formulation. However, detailed analysis of simulated spatial and temporal features of sediment transport and the dune evolution process were found to be noticeably different. Even though both sediment transport mechanisms appear to work adequately at a basic level, the major difference between the two approaches is the underlying transport process over the dunes and time-scale of the dune evolution process.

Water Resources Research

Fishway entrance gate experiments with adult American Shad

The goal of this multiyear study was to examine how changes to an upstream fishway entrance impacted the passage rate of adult American shad ( Alosa sapidissima ). We evaluated a total of nine treatment conditions that consisted of three fishway entrance gate types and three submergence depths (i.e., the water surface elevation of the tailwater relative to the height of the gate crest). Approximately 2,000 wild, actively migrating shad participated in one of the 64 total trials (6–8 trials per treatment) that were conducted for this experiment. The three fishway entrance gate types were the vertical gate (the most common entrance gate type used in fishways), the overshot gate (less common in fishways), and the reversed overshot gate (novel to fishways). The submergence depths ranged from 30.5 to 91.4 cm above the gate crest. Increases to the submergence depth were shown to be the most influential predictor variable of passage time, followed by gate type and river temperature. The reversed overshot and overshot gates outperformed the vertical gate with the best performance occurring for the newly introduced reversed overshot gate type. The results of this study provide guidance on methods to improve fishway attraction and entry rates to numerous state and federal resource agencies and the hydropower industry.

Water Resources Research

Physical controls on salmon redd site selection in restored reaches of a regulated, gravel-bed river

Large‐scale river restoration programs have emerged recently as a tool for improving spawning habitat for native salmonids in highly altered river ecosystems. Few studies have quantified the extent to which restored habitat is utilized by salmonids, which habitat features influence redd site selection, or the persistence of restored habitat over time. We investigated fall‐run Chinook salmon spawning site utilization and measured and modeled corresponding habitat characteristics in two restored reaches: a reach of channel and floodplain enhancement completed in 2013 and a reconfigured channel and floodplain constructed in 2002. Redd surveys demonstrated that both restoration projects supported a high density of salmon redds, 3 and 14 years following restoration. Salmon redds were constructed in coarse gravel substrates located in areas of high sediment mobility, as determined by measurements of gravel friction angles and a grain entrainment model. Salmon redds were located near transitions between pool‐riffle bedforms in regions of high predicted hyporheic flows. Habitat quality (quantified as a function of stream hydraulics) and hyporheic flow were both strong predictors of redd occurrence, though the relative roles of these variables differed between sites. Our findings indicate that physical controls on redd site selection in restored channels were similar to those reported for natural channels elsewhere. Our results further highlight that in addition to traditional habitat criteria (e.g., water depth, velocity, and substrate size), quantifying sediment texture and mobility, as well as intragravel flow, provides a more complete understanding of the ecological benefits provided by river restoration projects.

Water Resources Research

Prediction and inference of flow-duration curves using multi-output neural networks

We develop multi-output neural network models (MNNs) to predict flow-duration curves (FDCs) in 9,203 ungaged locations in the Southeastern United States for six decades between 1950-2009. The model architecture contains multiple response variables in the output layer that correspond to individual quantiles along the FDC. During training, predictions are made for each quantile, and a combined loss function is used for back propagation and parameter updating. The loss function accounts for the covariance between the quantiles and generates physically consistent outputs (i.e., monotonically increasing quantiles with increasing nonexceedance probabilities). We use neural-network dropout to generate posterior-predictive distributions for FDCs, and test model performance under cross validation. Finally, we demonstrate how local surrgotate models, via the Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) method, can be used to infer the relation between basin characteristics and the predicted FDCs. Results suggest that MNNs can learn the monotonic relations between adjacent quantiles on an FDC, they result in better predictions than single output neural-network models that predict each quantile independently, and basin characteristics are most useful for predicting smaller quantiles, whereas bias terms from neighboring quantiles are most informative for predicting higher quantiles.

Water Resources Research

Streamflow reconstruction in the Upper Missouri River Basin using a novel Bayesian network model

A Bayesian model that uses the spatial dependence induced by the river network topology, and the leading principal components of regional tree-ring chronologies for paleo-streamflow reconstruction is presented. In any river basin, a convergent, dendritic network of tributaries comes together to form the main stem of a river. Consequently, it is natural to think of a spatial Markov process that recognizes this topological structure to develop a spatially consistent basin-scale streamflow reconstruction model that uses the information in streamflow and tree-ring chronology data to inform the reconstructed flows, while maintaining the space-time correlation structure of flows that is critical for water resource assessments and management. Given historical data from multiple streamflow gauges along a river, their tributaries in a watershed, and regional tree-ring chronologies, the model is fit and used to simultaneously reconstruct the full network of paleo-streamflow at all gauges in the basin progressing upstream to downstream along the river. The spatial network structure allows a substantial reduction in the uncertainty associated with paleo-streamflow as one proceeds downstream in the network and the spatial dependence structure increases the information content. Our application to eighteen streamflow gauges in the Upper Missouri River Basin shows that the mean adjusted-R2 for the basin is approximately 0.5 with good overall cross-validated skill as measured by five different skill metrics. A comparison with the traditional principal components regression shows that the spatial Bayesian model offers improvements, as downstream gauges are informed by the reconstruction of the upstream gauges, as well as the tree-ring chronologies.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming

Process-guided deep learning predictions of lake water temperature

The rapid growth of data in water resources has created new opportunities to accelerate knowledge discovery with the use of advanced deep learning tools. Hybrid models that integrate theory with state‐of‐the art empirical techniques have the potential to improve predictions while remaining true to physical laws. This paper evaluates the Process‐Guided Deep Learning (PGDL) hybrid modeling framework with a use‐case of predicting depth‐specific lake water temperatures. The PGDL model has three primary components: a deep learning model with temporal awareness (long short‐term memory recurrence), theory‐based feedback (model penalties for violating conversation of energy), and model pretraining to initialize the network with synthetic data (water temperature predictions from a process‐based model). In situ water temperatures were used to train the PGDL model, a deep learning (DL) model, and a process‐based (PB) model. Model performance was evaluated in various conditions, including when training data were sparse and when predictions were made outside of the range in the training data set. The PGDL model performance (as measured by root‐mean‐square error (RMSE)) was superior to DL and PB for two detailed study lakes, but only when pretraining data included greater variability than the training period. The PGDL model also performed well when extended to 68 lakes, with a median RMSE of 1.65 °C during the test period (DL: 1.78 °C, PB: 2.03 °C; in a small number of lakes PB or DL models were more accurate). This case‐study demonstrates that integrating scientific knowledge into deep learning tools shows promise for improving predictions of many important environmental variables.

Minnesota, Wisconsin

A parametric numerical analysis of factors controlling ground ruptures caused by groundwater pumping

A modeling analysis is used to investigate the relative susceptibility of various hydrogeologic configurations to aseismic rupture generation due to deformation of aquifer systems accompanying groundwater pumping. An advanced numerical model (GEPS3D) is used to simulate rupture generation and propagation for three typical processes: (i) reactivation of a preexisting fault, (ii) differential compaction due to variations in thickness of aquifer/aquitard layers constituting the aquifer system, and (iii) tensile fracturing above a bedrock ridge that forms the base of the aquifer system. A sensitivity analysis is developed to address the relative importance of various factors, including aquifer depletion, aquifer thickness, the possible uneven distribution and depth below land surface of the aquifer/aquitard layers susceptible to aquifer-system compaction, and the height of bedrock ridges beneath the aquifer system which contributes to thinning of the aquifer system. The rupture evolution is classified in two occurrences. In one, the rupture develops at the top of the aquifer or at land surface and does not propagate. In the other, the developed rupture propagates from the aquifer top toward the land surface and/or from the land surface downward. The aquifer depth is the most important factor controlling rupture evolution. Specifically, the probability of a significant rupture propagation is higher when the aquifer top is near land surface. The numerical results are processed by a statistical regression analysis to provide a general methodology for a preliminary evaluation of possible ruptures development in exploited aquifer systems susceptible to aquifer-system compaction and accompanying land subsidence. A comparison with a few representative case studies in Arizona, USA, China, and Mexico supports the study outcomes.

Arizona

Advances in quantifying streamflow variability across continental scales: 2. Improved model regionalization and prediction uncertainties using hierarchical Bayesian methods

The precise estimation of process effects in hydrological models requires applying models to large scales with extensive spatial variability in controlling factors. Despite progress in large‐scale applications of hydrological models in conterminous United States (CONUS) river basins, spatial constraints in model parameters have prevented the interbasin sharing of data, complicating quantification of process effects and limiting the accuracy of model predictions and uncertainties. Hierarchical Bayesian methods enable data sharing between basins and the identification of the causes of model uncertainties, which can improve model accuracy and interpretability; however, computational inefficiencies have been an obstacle to their large‐scale application. We used a new generation of Bayesian methods to develop a hierarchical version of a previous hybrid (statistical‐mechanistic) SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes model of long‐term mean annual streamflow in the CONUS. We identified hierarchical (regional) variations in model coefficients and uncertainties and evaluated their effects on model accuracy and interpretability across diverse environments in 16 major CONUS regions. Hierarchical coefficients significantly improved spatial accuracy of model predictions, with the largest improvements in humid eastern regions, where uncertainties were approximately one third of those in arid western regions. Half of the coefficients varied regionally, with the largest variations in coefficients associated with water losses in streams and reservoirs. Our unraveling of the causes of model uncertainties identified a small latent process component of runoff that varies inversely with river size in most CONUS regions. Our study advances the use of hierarchical Bayesian methods to improve the predictive capabilities of hydrological models.

Water Resources Research

Copula theory as a generalized framework for flow-duration curve-based streamflow estimates in ungaged and partially gaged catchments

Flow‐duration curve (FDC) based streamflow estimation methods involve estimating an FDC at an ungaged or partially gaged location and using the time series of nonexceedance probabilities estimated from donor streamgage sites to generate estimates of streamflow. We develop a mathematical framework to illustrate the connection between copulas and prior FDC‐based approaches. The performance of copula methods is compared to several other streamflow estimation methods using a decade of daily streamflow data from 74 sites located within two river basins in the southeast United States with different climate characteristics and physiographic properties. We show that copula approaches: (1) outperform other methods in the limiting case of perfect information with regard to the rank‐based correlation structure and FDCs across the gaging network; (2) provide a hedge against poor performance when donor information becomes sparser and less informative; (3) outperform other methods when used for partially gaged sites with several years of available data; and (4) remain a competitive albeit nondominating method for ungaged sites and partially gaged sites with limited data when realistic error is introduced in the estimation of FDCs and correlations across the gaging network.

Water Resources Research

River water-quality concentration and flux estimation can be improved by accounting for serial correlation through an autoregressive model

Accurate quantification of riverine water‐quality concentration and flux is challenging because monitoring programs typically collect concentration data at lower frequencies than discharge data. Statistical methods are often used to estimate concentration and flux on days without observations. One recently developed approach is the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), which has been shown to provide among the most accurate estimates compared to other common methods. The main objective of this work was to improve WRTDS estimation by accounting for the autocorrelation structure of model residuals using the first‐order autoregressive model (AR1). This modified approach, called WRTDS‐Kalman Filter (WRTDS‐K), was compared with WRTDS for six constituents including nitrate‐plus‐nitrite (NO x ), total phosphorus, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, soluble reactive phosphorus, suspended sediment, and chloride. Near‐daily concentration records at nine sites were used to generate subsets through Monte Carlo sampling for five different sampling scenarios. Results show that WRTDS‐K provided generally better daily estimates of concentration and flux than WRTDS under these sampling scenarios for all constituents, especially NO x . The degree of improvement is strongly affected by the underlying sampling scenario, with WRTDS‐K gaining more advantage when more samples are available, and hence more residuals can be exploited. The performance of WRTDS‐K depends on the AR1 coefficient (ρ) and that relationship varies with constituents and sampling scenarios. These results provided recommendations on the optimal ρ for each constituent and sampling scenario. Overall, WRTDS‐K has the potential for broad applications to monitoring records elsewhere, as demonstrated by a pilot application to Chesapeake Bay tributaries.

Ohio

An experimental study of longitudinal incisional grooves in a mixed bedrock-alluvial channel

Natural bedrock rivers have various bedforms created by erosion. Flow‐parallel incisional grooves formed longitudinally in bedrock are one common example of such bedforms. Although several studies have been conducted regarding these grooves, their formation processes are not well understood. In this study, we conducted a flume experiment to investigate the relationship between the flow structure and longitudinal grooves. The experimental results strongly suggest that longitudinal grooves are formed by moving sediment concentrated in multiple longitudinal pathways by turbulence‐driven secondary flows. The sediment preferentially abrades the bedrock along these flow‐parallel pathways resulting in longitudinal grooves in the bedrock. Measurements of the flow velocity distribution show that the positions of secondary flow cells producing the initial formation of the grooves are altered by the formation of those grooves. Because displaced secondary flows tend to make the sediment collide with the sidewalls of the longitudinal grooves, the grooves grow wider over time and some grooves partially combine with other adjacent grooves. The initial maximum number of longitudinal grooves N max strongly depends on the river width‐depth ratio B / D , which defines the number of secondary flow cells, and can be expressed as N max = 0.5 B / D . However, because some grooves coalesce with other grooves due to the effects of the displacement of secondary flows, the average number of grooves showed a relationship that can be expressed as N = 0.41 B / D . Based on this relationship, we inversely estimated the flow discharge of the Abashiri River using the number of longitudinal grooves observed in the river. The result was consistent with the observed annual maximum flow discharge of the river. This suggests that the number of longitudinal grooves can be used as an indicator for estimation of the formative flow discharge in bedrock rivers.

Water Resources Research

Assessing the feasibility of satellite-based thresholds for hydrologically driven landsliding

Elevated soil moisture and heavy precipitation contribute to landslides worldwide. These environmental variables are now being resolved with satellites at spatiotemporal scales that could offer new perspectives on the development of landslide warning systems. However, the application of these data to hydro-meteorological thresholds (which account for antecedent soil moisture and rainfall) first need to be evaluated with respect to proven, direct measurement-based thresholds that use rain gauges and in situ soil moisture sensors. Here, we compare ground-based hydrologic data to overlapping satellite-based data before, during, and after a recent season of widespread shallow landsliding in the San Francisco Bay Area (California, USA). We then explore how the remotely sensed information could be used to empirically define hypothetical thresholds for shallow landsliding. We find that the ground-based thresholds developed with a single monitoring station show superior performance because the in situ soil saturation data better reflect the gravity-dominated subsurface flow conditions that are characteristic of hillslopes during the rainy season. Although the satellite-based thresholds can identify most of the landslide days, they include a greater number of false alarms due to overestimates of soil moisture between major storm events. To avoid the type of false alarms that are characteristic of our satellite-based thresholds, further post-processing of the near-surface hydrologic response data to better reflect gravity-dominated drainage should be integrated into satellite-based model outputs. Our results encourage further deployment of ground stations in landslide-prone terrain and cautious exploration of satellite-based hydro-meteorological thresholds where in situ networks are nonexistent.

California

Estimating bedload from suspended load and water discharge in sand bed rivers

Estimates of fluvial sediment discharge from in situ instruments are an important component of large‐scale sediment budgets that track long‐term geomorphic change. Suspended sediment load can be reliably estimated using acoustic or physical sampling techniques; however, bedload is difficult to measure directly and can consequently be one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimates of total load. We propose a physically informed predictive empirical model for bedload sand flux as a function of variables that are measured using existing acoustic or physical sampling techniques. This model depends on the assumption that concentration and grain size in suspension are in equilibrium with reach‐averaged boundary conditions. Bayesian inference is used to fit model parameters to data from eight sand‐bed rivers and to simulate bedload flux over the available gage record at one site on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. We find that the cumulative bedload flux during the 9 year period from 2008 to 2016 was 5% of the cumulative suspended sand load; however, instantaneous bedload flux ranged from as little as 1% of instantaneous suspended sand load to as much as 75% of instantaneous suspended sand load due to fluctuations in flow strength and sediment supply. Changes in bedload flux at a constant discharge are indicative of short‐term sediment supply enrichment and depletion. Long‐term average bedload flux cannot be expected to remain constant in the future as the river adjusts to changes in sediment runoff and the dam‐regulated discharge regime.

Arizona

Multiorder hydrologic position in the conterminous United States: A set of metrics in support of groundwater mapping at regional and national scales

The location of a point on the landscape within a stream network (hydrologic position) can be an important predictive measure in hydrology. Hydrologic position is defined here by two metrics: lateral position and distance from stream to divide, both measured horizontally. Lateral position (dimensionless) is the relative position of a point between the stream and its watershed divide. Distance from stream to divide (units of length) is an indicator of position within a watershed: generally small near a confluence and generally large in headwater areas. Watersheds and watershed divides are defined here by Thiessen polygons rather than topographic divides. Lateral position and distance from stream to divide are also defined in the context of hydrologic order. Hydrologic order “ n ” is defined as the network of streams, and associated divides, of order n and higher. And given that a point can have different positions in different hydrologic orders the term multiorder hydrologic position (MOHP) is used to describe the ensemble of hydrologic positions. MOHP was mapped across the conterminous United States for nine hydrologic orders at a spatial resolution of 30 m (about 8.7 billion pixels). There are 18 metrics for each pixel. Four case studies are presented that use MOHP metrics as explanatory factors in random forest machine learning models. The case studies show that lower order MOHP metrics can serve as indicators of hydrologic process while higher‐order metrics serve as indicators of location. MOHP is shown to have utility as a predictor variable across a large range of scales (50,000 to 8,000,000 km 2 ).

Water Resources Research

Formation criteria for hyporheic anoxic microzones: Assessing interactions of hydraulics, nutrients and biofilms

Recent experimental studies have detected the presence of anoxic microzones in hyporheic sediments. These microzones are small‐scale anoxic pores, embedded within oxygen‐rich porous media and can act as anaerobic reaction sites producing reduction compounds such as nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas. Microbes are a key control on nutrient transformation in hyporheic sediment, but their associated biomass growth is also capable of altering hydraulic flux, leading to potential bioclogging. Here, we developed one of the first computational modeling approaches that combined hydraulics and microbial conditions to explore the continuous evolution of microzones in stream sediments. The model assessed stream and sediment conditions with different hydraulic flux (0.1–1.0 m/day Darcy flux), nutrient concentrations (O 2 = 8 mg/L, OrgC = 20 mg/L, NO − 3 = 1.5–3 mg/L, and NH 3 = 0.5–1 mg/L), and biomass scenarios (with and without). The model domain is a pore network model with random sized pore‐throat radii creating heterogeneous and anisotropic flow that is representative of a natural streambed composed of medium sand with a hydraulic conductivity of 0.8 m/day. Results from 30 day simulations indicate that hyporheic microzone formation will occur and microzone distributions are not simply controlled by residence time alone, rather by the complex interactions of hydraulic flux, nutrient concentrations, and biomass, with bioclogging having strong feedbacks on both hydraulics and nutrients. Under all conditions with biomass growth, anoxic microzones were unstable, perishing a few days after formation, because bioclogging primarily occurs near the influent (downwelling) area of the hyporheic zone. In turn, this bioclogging shifts transport conditions from advection‐dominated to diffusion‐dominated transport, removing all oxic regions in the hyporheic zone. Overall, results from the modeling show that anoxic microzones are likely to form under many hyporheic zone conditions, and be dynamic through space and time as they are dependent on both hydraulic flux and nutrient transport.

Water Resources Research

Fundamental hydraulics of cross sections in natural rivers: Preliminary analysis of a large data set of acoustic doppler flow measurements

We have assembled a comprehensive and publicly accessible U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow measurement data set, called HYDRoSWOT, from a USGS National Water Information System archive of acoustic Doppler current profiler river discharge measurements collected from a wide range of rivers throughout the United States. The data set provides a wealth of information on the range of hydraulic characteristics of river cross sections in the United States. Preliminary exploration of the data set, filtered for quality control, indicates that rivers tend toward consistent and predictable forms as discharge increases. The ratio of maximum-to-mean depth is highly predictable and is remarkably consistent across all river sizes and discharges. Distributions of hydraulic characteristics provide a large-scale perspective on the general hydraulic characteristics of rivers. The data set affords the opportunity to analyze hydraulic relations for individual rivers as a function of stage, geomorphic setting, and energy environments and, combined with additional information contained in this data set, might yield predictive relations that could help constrain and parameterize river hydraulic models.

Water Resource Research

A classification of streamflow patterns across the coastal Gulf of Alaska

Streamflow controls many freshwater and marine processes, including salinity profiles, sediment composition, fluxes of nutrients, and the timing of animal migrations. Watersheds that border the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) comprise over 400,000 km 2 of largely pristine freshwater habitats and provide ecosystem services such as reliable fisheries for local and global food production. Yet no comprehensive watershed-scale description of current temporal and spatial patterns of streamflow exists within the coastal GOA. This is an immediate need because the spatial distribution of future streamflow patterns may shift dramatically due to warming air temperature, increased rainfall, diminishing snowpack, and rapid glacial recession. Our primary goal was to describe variation in streamflow patterns across the coastal GOA using an objective set of descriptors derived from flow predictions at the downstream-most point within each watershed. We leveraged an existing hydrologic runoff model and Bayesian mixture model to classify 4,140 watersheds into 13 classes based on seven streamflow statistics. Maximum discharge timing (annual phase shift) and magnitude relative to mean discharge (amplitude) were the most influential attributes. Seventy-six percent of watersheds by number showed patterns consistent with rain or snow as dominant runoff sources, while the remaining watersheds were driven by rain-snow, glacier, or low-elevation wetland runoff. Streamflow classes exhibited clear mechanistic links to elevation, ice coverage, and other landscape features. Our classification identifies watersheds that might shift streamflow patterns in the near future and, importantly, will help guide the design of studies that evaluate how hydrologic change will influence coastal GOA ecosystems.

Alaska