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USGS2016

The logic of comparative life history studies for estimating key parameters, with a focus on natural mortality rate

There are a number of key parameters in population dynamics that are difficult to estimate, such as natural mortality rate, intrinsic rate of population growth, and stock-recruitment relationships. Often, these parameters of a stock are, or can be, estimated indirectly on the basis of comparative life history studies. That is, the relationship between a difficult to estimate parameter and life history correlates is examined over a wide variety of species in order to develop predictive equations. The form of these equations may be derived from life history theory or simply be suggested by exploratory data analysis. Similarly, population characteristics such as potential yield can be estimated by making use of a relationship between the population parameter and bio-chemico–physical characteristics of the ecosystem. Surprisingly, little work has been done to evaluate how well these indirect estimators work and, in fact, there is little guidance on how to conduct comparative life history studies and how to evaluate them. We consider five issues arising in such studies: (i) the parameters of interest may be ill-defined idealizations of the real world, (ii) true values of the parameters are not known for any species, (iii) selecting data based on the quality of the estimates can introduce a host of problems, (iv) the estimates that are available for comparison constitute a non-random sample of species from an ill-defined population of species of interest, and (v) the hierarchical nature of the data (e.g. stocks within species within genera within families, etc., with multiple observations at each level) warrants consideration. We discuss how these issues can be handled and how they shape the kinds of questions that can be asked of a database of life history studies.

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗

USGS2015

Spatial and temporal use of a prairie dog colony by coyotes and rabbits: Potential indirect effects on endangered black-footed ferrets

In western North America, endangered black-footed ferrets M ustela nigripes are conserved via reintroduction to colonies of prairie dogs C ynomys spp., their primary prey. Predation is an important source of mortality; coyotes C anis latrans appear to be the most problematic predator, accounting for 67% of known predation events on radio-tagged ferrets. Little is known about what factors affect spatial use of prairie dog colonies by coyotes, or how other animals might affect interactions between coyotes and ferrets. During June–October 2007–2008, we used spotlight surveys to monitor coyotes and ferrets (both years) and rabbits S ylvilagus spp. (first year) on a 452-ha colony of black-tailed prairie dogs C ynomys ludovicianus in the Conata Basin, South Dakota. Coyotes appeared to select areas of the colony used by rabbits, suggesting coyotes hunted rabbits, a common item in their diet. Between midnight and sunrise, ferrets were most commonly observed during early morning (01:00–03:00 h), whereas coyotes were observed mostly during dawn (04:00 h – sunrise) when ferrets were rarely seen. These temporal differences in the timing of observations suggest ferrets tend to remain underground in burrows when coyotes are most active. Coyotes appeared to be attracted to rabbits in both space and time, suggesting the risk of predation for ferrets might relate to the abundance and locations of rabbits in prairie dog colonies.

South Dakota↗

USGS2012

Provisioning of nestling Dickcissels in native warm-season grass field buffers

We used video cameras in 2008–2009 to record provisioning activities at Dickcissel (Spiza americana) nests in and around Conservation Reserve Program field buffers in north-central Mississippi, USA. We simultaneously observed foraging flight distances of parents. Provisioning rate (P = 0.412), biomass (P = 0.161), and foraging distance (P = 0.159) did not increase with nestling age. Parents delivered larger items to meet demand associated with older nestlings (P = 0.010–0.001). This suggests energetic costs of changes in prey selection were less than costs of increasing the number or distance of provisioning trips. Presence of male helpers increased provisioning rate (P < 0.001) but not biomass (P = 0.992) because males brought smaller prey items (P = 0.001–0.021). Presence of observers 30 m from the nest reduced provisioning rates (P = 0.005) and biomass delivered (P = 0.066). Lack of habitat effects for any aspect of provisioning suggests grass field buffers provided nestling food resources similar to surrounding habitats. Use of continuous video monitoring of nest activity allows well-concealed activities including provisioning and male helping to be directly observed and better quantified.

Mississippi↗

USGS2015

Evaluation of capture techniques on lesser prairie-chicken trap injury and survival

Ethical treatment of research animals is required under the Animal Welfare Act. This includes trapping methodologies that reduce unnecessary pain and duress. Traps used in research should optimize animal welfare conditions within the context of the proposed research study. Several trapping techniques are used in the study of lesser prairie-chickens, despite lack of knowledge of trap injury caused by the various methods. From 2006 to 2012, we captured 217, 40, and 144 lesser prairie-chickens Tympanuchus pallidicinctus using walk-in funnel traps, rocket nets, and drop nets, respectively, in New Mexico and Texas, to assess the effects of capture technique on injury and survival of the species. We monitored radiotagged, injured lesser prairie-chickens 7–65 d postcapture to assess survival rates of injured individuals. Injuries occurred disproportionately among trap type, injury type, and sex. The predominant injuries were superficial cuts to the extremities of males captured in walk-in funnel traps. However, we observed no mortalities due to trapping, postcapture survival rates of injured birds did not vary across trap types, and the daily survival probability of an injured and uninjured bird was ≥99%. Frequency and intensity of injuries in walk-in funnel traps are due to the passive nature of these traps (researcher cannot select specific individuals for capture) and incidental capture of individuals not needed for research. Comparatively, rocket nets and drop nets allow observers to target birds for capture and require immediate removal of captured individuals from the trap. Based on our results, trap injuries would be reduced if researchers monitor and immediately remove birds from walk-in funnels before they injure themselves; move traps to target specific birds and reduce recaptures; limit the number of consecutive trapping days on a lek; and use proper netting techniques that incorporate quick, efficient, trained handling procedures.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2011

Seasonal habitat use and selection by grizzly bears in Northern British Columbia

We defined patterns of habitat use and selection by female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Besa-Prophet watershed of northern British Columbia. We fitted 13 adult females with Geographic Positioning System (GPS) radio-collars and monitored them between 2001 and 2004. We examined patterns of habitat selection by grizzly bears relative to topographical attributes and 3 potential surrogates of food availability: land-cover class, vegetation biomass or quality (as measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), and selection value for prey species themselves (moose [Alces alces], elk [Cervus elaphus], woodland caribou [Rangifer tarandus]. Stone's sheep [Ovis dalli stonei]). Although vegetation biomass and quality, and selection values for prey were important in seasonal selection by some individual bears, land-cover class, elevation, aspect, and vegetation diversity most influenced patterns of habitat selection across grizzly bears, which rely on availability of plant foods and encounters with ungulate prey. Grizzly bears as a group avoided conifer stands and areas of low vegetation diversity, and selected for burned land-cover classes and high vegetation diversity across seasons. They also selected mid elevations from what was available within seasonal ranges. Quantifying relative use of different attributes helped place selection patterns within the context of the landscape. Grizzly bears used higher elevations (1,595 ± 31 m SE) in spring and lower elevations (1,436 ± 27 m) in fall; the range of average elevations used among individuals was highest (500 m) during the summer. During all seasons, grizzly bears most frequented aspects with high solar gain. Use was distributed across 10 land-cover classes and depended on season. Management and conservation actions must maintain a diverse habitat matrix distributed across a large elevational gradient to ensure persistence of grizzly bears as levels of human access increase in the northern Rocky Mountains.

Northern British Columbia↗

USGS2025

Greater sage-grouse seasonal habitat associations: A review and considerations for interpretation and management applications

Habitat features needed by wildlife can change in composition throughout the year, particularly in temperate ecosystems, leading to distinct seasonal spatial-use patterns. Studies of species-habitat associations therefore often focus on understanding relationships within discrete seasonal periods with common goals of prediction (e.g., habitat mapping) and inference (e.g., interpreting model coefficients). Across the range of the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) of western North America, the increasing use of high-frequency tracking devices has led to a surge in habitat association studies covering multiple temporal periods and spatial extents. We reviewed the literature for seasonal habitat association studies corresponding to the second and third orders of selection (Johnson 1980). Our objectives were to summarize the methodological approaches used to estimate habitat associations to aid understanding in cross-study comparisons and identify common habitat features reported as selected or avoided within different seasonal periods. We reviewed 71 second- and third-order studies published from 2007–2023 that evaluated covariates collected in a geographic information system (GIS) and modeled probability of selection or intensity of use. The most common study design evaluated a single level of selection (third-order) and was multi-scale (i.e., covariates were measured at varying spatial grains). The most common model approach estimated habitat associations using resource selection functions (RSFs) fit with logistic regression. Studies mostly focused on the breeding periods and winter, but all seasons throughout the annual cycle were covered. There was clear support for selection of sagebrush and avoidance of trees and rugged terrain across seasons, and strong selection of mesic conditions in summer. However, habitat associations for most covariates were mixed, with proportionally equivalent selection and avoidance reported, even within the same seasons. Different factors hampered cross-study comparisons, including variation in study design, but additional contributors likely included important context-dependent habitat associations, such as functional responses to changing habitat availability. We suggest collaborative studies leveraging multiple datasets can help improve seasonal habitat inference by removing the effects of variable study designs.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2013

Scientific results of the Second Gas Hydrate Drilling Expedition in the Ulleung Basin (UBGH2)

As a part of Korean National Gas Hydrate Program, the Second Ulleung Basin Gas Hydrate Drilling Expedition (UBGH2) was conducted from 9 July to 30 September, 2010 in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea, offshore Korea using the D/V Fugro Synergy. The UBGH2 was performed to understand the distribution of gas hydrates as required for a resource assessment and to find potential candidate sites suitable for a future offshore production test, especially targeting gas hydrate-bearing sand bodies in the basin. The UBGH2 sites were distributed across most of the basin and were selected to target mainly sand-rich turbidite deposits. The 84-day long expedition consisted of two phases. The first phase included logging-while-drilling/measurements-while-drilling (LWD/MWD) operations at 13 sites. During the second phase, sediment cores were collected from 18 holes at 10 of the 13 LWD/MWD sites. Wireline logging (WL) and vertical seismic profile (VSP) data were also acquired after coring operations at two of these 10 sites. In addition, seafloor visual observation, methane sensing, as well as push-coring and sampling using a Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) were conducted during both phases of the expedition. Recovered gas hydrates occurred either as pore-filling medium associated with discrete turbidite sand layers, or as fracture-filling veins and nodules in muddy sediments. Gas analyses indicated that the methane within the sampled gas hydrates is primarily of biogenic origin. This paper provides a summary of the operational and scientific results of the UBGH2 expedition as described in 24 papers that make up this special issue of the Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology.

East Sea Of Korea;Ulleung Basin↗

USGS2026

Characterizing the influence of remotely sensed wetland and lake water storage on discharge using LSTM models

Globally, many wetlands and lakes are at risk for further loss, which can amplify downstream consequences of flood and drought events. We derived remotely sensed based time series of surface water storage (SW storage ) to determine when and where accounting for SW storage dynamics improves predictions of river discharge. We trained four long short-term memory (LSTM) models, that differed in their inclusion of storage data and catchment characteristics, to simulate daily river discharge (2016–2023) for select watersheds across the conterminous United States. Adding SW storage to a meteorology-only or meteorology-and-catchment characteristics model improved upon model Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) in 80.6% of the watersheds. Residuals during low-flow (Q70) events decreased by 47.6% when adding storage to meteorological data. Improvements were most consistent in ecoregions with a greater abundance of non-floodplain lakes and wetlands. This effort represents the first exploration to train a multi-watershed LSTM on landscape-scale remotely sensed time series of SW storage .

conterminous United States↗

USGS2020

A random forest approach for bounded outcome variables

Random forests have become an established tool for classication and regres- sion, in particular in high-dimensional settings and in the presence of non-additive predictor-response relationships. For bounded outcome variables restricted to the unit interval, however, classical modeling approaches based on mean squared error loss may severely suer as they do not account for heteroscedasticity in the data. To address this issue, we propose a random forest approach for relating a beta dis- tributed outcome to a set of explanatory variables. Our approach explicitly makes use of the likelihood function of the beta distribution for the selection of splits dur- ing the tree-building procedure. In each iteration of the tree-building algorithm it chooses one explanatory variable in combination with a split point that maximizes the log-likelihood function of the beta distribution with the parameter estimates de- rived from the nodes of the currently built tree. Results of several simulation studies and an application using data from the U.S.A. National Lakes Assessment Survey demonstrate the properties and usefulness of the method, in particular when com- pared to random forest approaches based on mean squared error loss and parametric regression models.

Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics↗

USGS2019

Variation in selective regimes drives intraspecific variation in life-history traits and migratory behaviour along an elevational gradient

Comparative studies, across and within taxa, have made important contributions to our understanding of the evolutionary processes that promote phenotypic diversity. Trait variation along geographic gradients provides a convenient heuristic for understanding what drives and maintains diversity. Intraspecific trait variation along latitudinal gradients is well-known, but elevational variation in the same traits is rarely documented. Trait variation along continuous elevational gradients, however, provides compelling evidence that individuals within a breeding population may experience different selective pressures. Our objectives were to quantify variation in a suite of traits along a continuous elevational gradient, evaluate whether individuals in the population experience different selective pressures along that gradient and quantify variation in migratory tendency along that gradient. We examined variation in a suite of 14 life-history, morphological and behavioural traits, including migratory tendency, of yellow-eyed juncos along a continuous 1000-m elevational gradient in the Santa Catalina Mountains of Arizona. Many traits we examined varied along the elevational gradient. Nest survival and nestling growth rates increased, while breeding season length, renesting propensity and adult survival declined, with increasing elevation. We documented the migratory phenotype of juncos (partial altitudinal migrants) and show that individual migratory tendency is higher among females than males and increases with breeding elevation. Our data support the paradigm that variation in breeding season length is a major selective pressure driving life-history variation along elevational gradients and that individuals breeding at high elevation pursue strategies that favour offspring quality over offspring quantity. Furthermore, a negative association between adult survival and breeding elevation and a positive association between nest survival and breeding elevation help explain both the downslope and reciprocal upslope seasonal migratory movements that characterize altitudinal migration in many birds. Our results demonstrate how detailed studies of intraspecific variation in suites of traits along environmental gradients can lend new insights into the evolutionary processes that promote diversification and speciation, the causes of migratory behaviour, and how animal populations will likely respond to climate change.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS1978

Phosphorus in hydrothermal waters of Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming

Ninety-seven hot-spring and geyser samples (field acidified to pH<1.4 with HCl or HNO 3 ) from Yellowstone National Park, Wyo., were analyzed for PO 4 -P using reduced molybdenum-blue and the selective arsenate reducing agent, metabisulfite-thiosulfate. The PO 4 -P concentrations ranged from below detection limit (~1-73 micrograms per liter). Twenty-five springs had PO 4 -P concentrations exceeding 6.8 μ g/L; seven spring samples exceeded 20 μg/L. Elevated PO 4 -P contents were invariably associated with mixed springs, as evidenced by diluted chloride concentrations and, commonly, subboiling temperatures, low pH's, and elevated calcium concentrations. Alkaline high-chloride (>400 milligrams per liter) hydrothermal waters from Upper and Norris Geyser Basins had PO 4 -P concentrations below 2 μg/L and represent the low end of the range of PO 4 -P contents in natural waters.

Wyoming↗

USGS1977

Waterfowl exposure to lead and steel shot on selected hunting areas

Gizzards and wingbones from immature mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ), pintails ( Anas acuta ), black ducks ( A. rubripes ), and Canada geese ( Branta canadensis ) were collected from 12 national and stat hunting are.as during the hunting season of 1974-75. The gizzards were examined for the occurrence of lead and steel shot and the wingbones were analyzed for lead residues. Incidence of lead shot in gizzards ranged from 1.3 percent in mallards from Monte Vista National Wildlife Refuge to 29 percent in pintails from Sauvie Island Wildlife Management Area. Lead in wingbones ranged from trace residues (<0.5 ppm) to 345 ppm. The incidence of steel shot in gizzards surpassed lead shot on some refuges that have had mandatory steel shot programs. There was a significant correlation between frequency of lead shot in gizzards and lead residues in wingbones.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2003

Selecting Great Lakes streams for lampricide treatment based on larval sea lamprey surveys

The Empiric Stream Treatment Ranking (ESTR) system is a data-driven, model-based, decision tool for selecting Great Lakes streams for treatment with lampricide, based on estimates from larval sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) surveys conducted throughout the basin. The 2000 ESTR system was described and applied to larval assessment surveys conducted from 1996 to 1999. A comparative analysis of stream survey and selection data was conducted and improvements to the stream selection process were recommended. Streams were selected for treatment based on treatment cost, predicted treatment effectiveness, and the projected number of juvenile sea lampreys produced. On average, lampricide treatments were applied annually to 49 streams with 1,075 ha of larval habitat, killing 15 million larval and 514,000 juvenile sea lampreys at a total cost of $5.3 million, and marginal and mean costs of $85 and $10 per juvenile killed. The numbers of juvenile sea lampreys killed for given treatment costs showed a pattern of diminishing returns with increasing investment. Of the streams selected for treatment, those with > 14 ha of larval habitat targeted 73% of the juvenile sea lampreys for 60% of the treatment cost. Suggested improvements to the ESTR system were to improve accuracy and precision of model estimates, account for uncertainty in estimates, include all potentially productive streams in the process (not just those surveyed in the current year), consider the value of all larvae killed during treatment (not just those predicted to metamorphose the following year), use lake-specific estimates of damage, and establish formal suppression targets.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2007

Developments in seismic monitoring for risk reduction

This paper presents recent state-of-the-art developments to obtain displacements and drift ratios for seismic monitoring and damage assessment of buildings. In most cases, decisions on safety of buildings following seismic events are based on visual inspections of the structures. Real-time instrumental measurements using GPS or double integration of accelerations, however, offer a viable alternative. Relevant parameters, such as the type of connections and structural characteristics (including storey geometry), can be estimated to compute drifts corresponding to several pre-selected threshold stages of damage. Drift ratios determined from real-time monitoring can then be compared to these thresholds in order to estimate damage conditions drift ratios. This approach is demonstrated in three steel frame buildings in San Francisco, California. Recently recorded data of strong shaking from these buildings indicate that the monitoring system can be a useful tool in rapid assessment of buildings and other structures following an earthquake. Such systems can also be used for risk monitoring, as a method to assess performance-based design and analysis procedures, for long-term assessment of structural characteristics of a building, and as a possible long-term damage detection tool.

Journal of Risk Research↗

USGS2025

Mitigation of human cognitive bias in volcanic eruption forecasting

Modern operational eruption forecasting methods rely heavily on human judgment in the face of uncertainty and are thus susceptible to myriad cognitive biases and errors by the scientist-forecasters. Recent developments in the behavioral sciences have elucidated cognitive biases across a wide spectrum of human behaviors and found ways to mitigate them. These insights have led to significant gains in human forecast accuracy across a range of disciplines. However, such gains have yet to widely penetrate volcanic eruption forecasting efforts. In this study, we review recent progress in these fields as relevant to improving current eruption forecasting methods as practiced by volcano observatories worldwide. We group cognitive biases into 1) information and selection biases, 2) group effects and social-emotional biases, and 3) framing and decision biases and highlight the numerous places in which these biases may permeate eruption forecasts. We present a framework for improving group discussion and forecasting processes at volcano observatories, considering recent gains from behavioral sciences along with a mitigation checklist to effectively reduce bias in operational eruption forecasts. Finally, we present an updated forecasting methodology for use in our own group, the US Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Disaster Assistance Program, based on previous “multiple datasets” methods, that includes clear and deliberate efforts to minimize cognitive biases and thus improve eruption forecasting accuracy.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗

USGS2003

An evaluation of selective feeding by three age-groups of the rainbow mussel Villosa iris

A tri-algal diet was fed to three age-groups of the rainbow mussel Villosa iris: ages 2-3 d, 50-53 d, and 3-6 years. Changes in the relative abundance of each algal species were determined in 5-h feeding trials from feeding chambers and by gut content analyses. All age-groups rejected Scenedesmus quadricauda and preferentially selected Nannochloropsis oculata and Selenastrum capricornutum, principally on the basis of size. Changes in the relative abundance of algae in feeding chambers did not differ significantly among age-groups. Observed differences in the ingested quantities of the similar-sized N. oculata and S. capricornutum were attributed to other particle-related characteristics. Results indicate that the rainbow mussel can be fed similar-sized algae at ali ages in captive propagation facilities. When developing a suitable algal diet for rearing juvenile mussels, one probably need not investigate different species at each stage of development if the algae used are in the 2.8-8.5-??m size range.

North American Journal of Aquaculture↗

USGS1994

Bald eagle nest site characteristics in South Florida

Florida had nearly 20% of the coterminous United States population of nesting bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) in 1990 (U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv. 1991), yet the nesting ecology of bald eagles in subtropical environments has not been investigated. We examined nest site selection (n = 156 sites) by bald eagles in Florida Bay, Florida, from 1959 to 1990. Black ( Avicennia germinans ) and red mangroves ( Rhizophora mangle ) were used as nest trees almost exclusively (96.9%), and more than half were snags. Eagles also built nests on the ground (n = 3) and raised young on the ground after nests collapsed (n = 5). Eagles preferred (P < 0.05) higher keys (grass, hardwood-buttonwood [ Conocarpus erecta ]) over low-lying keys (mangrove, marsh) for nesting. Management strategies should include the preservation of live and dead mangroves and large, undisturbed keys as potential nesting sites for bald eagles in the subtropical portion of the eagle's range.

Florida↗

USGS1991

Prey selection for the exotic cladoceran Bythotrephes cederstroemi by selected Lake Erie fishes

The importance of zooplankton in the diet of yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ), white perch ( Morone americana ), walleyes ( Stizostedion vitreum vitreum ), and white bass ( M. chry-sops )was assessed in the central basin of Lake Erie in 1985–1988. Zooplankton were collected by vertical hauls in 1987–1988 and fish with a rock-hopper trawl. Although copepods (calanoid and cyciopoid) were the major zooplankton in the plankton samples, they were not well represented in the fish diet. From 1985 through 1988, Cladocera became an increasingly important food – particularly a recent invader from Europe, Bythotrephes cederstroemi . It was a major component in the diet of yellow perch from June to October in both 1987 and 1988. The zooplankton consumption by white perch was more diverse until September, when B. cederstroemi became the major food item.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗