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A satellite-based digital data system for low-frequency geophysical data

A reliable method for collection, display, and analysis of low-frequency geophysical data from isolated sites, which can be throughout North and South America and the Pacific Rim, has been developed for use with the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) system. Geophysical data primarily intended for earthquake hazard and crustal deformation monitoring are digitized with either 12-bit or 16-bit resolution and transmitted every 10 min through a satellite link to a bank of UNIX-based computers in Menlo Park, California. There the data are available for analysis and display within a few seconds of their transmit time. This system provides real-time monitoring of crustal deformation parameters such as tilt, strain, fault displacement, local magnetic field, crustal geochemistry, and water levels, as well as meteorological and other parameters, along faults in California and Alaska, and in volcanic regions in the western United States, Rabaul, and other locations in the New Britain region of the South Pacific. Various mathematical, statistical, and graphical algorithms process the incoming data to detect changes in crustal deformation and fault slip that may indicate the first stages of catastrophic fault failure. Alert trigger levels based on physical models, signal resolution, and previous history have been defined for particular instrument types. Computer-driven remote paging and mail systems are used to notify appropriate personnel when alarm status is reached. The system supports continuous historical records of low-frequency geophysical data, software for extensive analysis of these data, and programs for modeling fault rupture with and without seismic radiation, as well as providing an environment for real-time attempts at earthquake prediction.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP)-West: Summary of activities and accomplishments in South Dakota, 2000-2004

The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP)-West was initiated in South Dakota in 2000 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). The two primary objectives of the surface waters component of EMAP-West were to (1) develop the monitoring tools (biological indicators, stream survey design, estimates of reference condition) necessary to produce unbiased estimates of the ecological condition of surface waters across a large geographic area of the West; and (2) demonstrate the effectiveness of those tools in a large-scale assessment. Although not specifically defined as an objective, data collected during EMAP-West also will help to establish a baseline for comparisons with data obtained from future monitoring efforts and could document changing biological conditions resulting from changing land-use or land-management practices associated with regulatory or restorative efforts. EMAP-West is a partnership between USEPA, States, Tribes, and other inter­ested parties in USEPA Regions 8, 9, and 10. In South Dakota, the principle EMAP-West cooperators include the USEPA, South Dakota Department of Game, Fish and Parks (GF&P), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Other agencies such as the Natural Resource Conservation ­Service, the South Dakota Department of Environment and Natural Resources (SDDENR), State Conservation Dis­tricts, and various Tribal departments also have provided valuable expertise and assistance. This fact sheet summarizes the activities and accomplishments associated with EMAP-West in South Dakota during 2000–2004. Efforts were focused on perennial streams that usually can be waded. Large rivers also were assessed during EMAP-West under the auspices of USEPA using boats and similar techniques, but are not included in the activities discussed here. Data-collection activities for wadeable streams were conducted under the auspices of USEPA in South Dakota during 2000 and by the USGS during 2001–2004. A more detailed description of EMAP-West activities and assessments in South Dakota is available in Heakin and others ( in press ).

South Dakota

Discharge, water temperature, and water quality of Warm Mineral Springs, Sarasota County, Florida: A retrospective analysis

Warm Mineral Springs, located in southern Sarasota County, Florida, is a warm, highly mineralized, inland spring. Since 1946, a bathing spa has been in operation at the spring, attracting vacationers and health enthusiasts. During the winter months, the warm water attracts manatees to the adjoining spring run and provides vital habitat for these mammals. Well-preserved late Pleistocene to early Holocene-age human and animal bones, artifacts, and plant remains have been found in and around the spring, and indicate the surrounding sinkhole formed more than 12,000 years ago. The spring is a multiuse resource of hydrologic importance, ecological and archeological significance, and economic value to the community. The pool of Warm Mineral Springs has a circular shape that reflects its origin as a sinkhole. The pool measures about 240 feet in diameter at the surface and has a maximum depth of about 205 feet. The sinkhole developed in the sand, clay, and dolostone of the Arcadia Formation of the Miocene-age to Oligocene-age Hawthorn Group. Underlying the Hawthorn Group are Oligocene-age to Eocene-age limestones and dolostones, including the Suwannee Limestone, Ocala Limestone, and Avon Park Formation. Mineralized groundwater, under artesian pressure in the underlying aquifers, fills the remnant sink, and the overflow discharges into Warm Mineral Springs Creek, to Salt Creek, and subsequently into the Myakka River. Aquifers described in the vicinity of Warm Mineral Springs include the surficial aquifer system, the intermediate aquifer system within the Hawthorn Group, and the Upper Floridan aquifer in the Suwannee Limestone, Ocala Limestone, and Avon Park Formation. The Hawthorn Group acts as an upper confining unit of the Upper Floridan aquifer. Groundwater flow paths are inferred from the configuration of the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer for September 2010. Groundwater flow models indicate the downward flow of water into the Upper Floridan aquifer in inland areas, and upward flow toward the surface in coastal areas, such as at Warm Mineral Springs. Warm Mineral Springs is located in a discharge area. Changes in water use in the region have affected the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer. Historical increase in groundwater withdrawals resulted in a 10- to 20-foot regional decline in the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer by May 1975 relative to predevelopment levels and remained at approximately that level in May 2007 in the area of Warm Mineral Springs. Discharge measurements at Warm Mineral Springs (1942–2014) decreased from about 11–12 cubic feet per second in the 1940s to about 6–9 cubic feet per second in the 1970s and remained at about that level for the remainder of the period of record. Similarity of changes in regional water use and discharge at Warm Mineral Springs indicates that basin-scale changes to the groundwater system have affected discharge at Warm Mineral Springs. Water temperature had no significant trend in temperature over the period of record, 1943–2015, and outliers were identified in the data that might indicate inconsistencies in measurement methods or locations. Within the regional groundwater basin, Warm Mineral Springs is influenced by deep Upper Floridan aquifer flow paths that discharge toward the coast. Associated with these flow paths, the groundwater temperatures increase with depth and toward the coast. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that a source of warm groundwater to Warm Mineral Springs is likely the permeable zone of the Avon Park Formation within the Upper Floridan aquifer at a depth of about 1,400 to 1,600 feet, or deeper sources. The permeable zone contains saline groundwater with water temperatures of at least 95 degrees Fahrenheit. The water quality of Warm Mineral Springs, when compared with other springs in Florida had the highest temperature and the greatest mineralized content. Warm Mineral Springs water is characterized by a slight-green color, with varying water clarity, low dissolved oxygen (indicative of deep groundwater), and a hydrogen sulfide odor. Water-quality samples detected ammonium-nitrogen and nitrates, but at low concentrations. The drinking water standard for nitrate adopted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is 10 milligrams per liter, measured as nitrogen. Water samples collected at spring vents by divers on April 29, 2015, had concentrations of 0.9 milligram per liter nitrate-nitrogen at vent A and 0.04–0.05 milligram per liter at vents B, C, and D. Typically, the water clarity is highest in the morning (about 30 feet Secchi depth) and often decreases throughout the day. Analysis of existing data provided some insight into the hydrologic processes affecting Warm Mineral Springs; however, data have been sparsely and discontinuously collected since the 1940s. Continuous monitoring of hydrologic characteristics such as discharge, water temperature, specific conductance, and water-quality indicators, such as nitrate and turbidity (water clarity), would be valuable for monitoring and development of models of spring discharge and water quality. In addition, water samples could be analyzed for isotopic tracers, such as strontium, and the results used to identify and quantify the sources of groundwater that discharge at Warm Mineral Springs. Groundwater flow/transport models could be used to evaluate the sensitivity of the quality and quantity of water flowing from Warm Mineral Springs to changes in climate, aquifer levels, and water use.

Florida

Editorial: Advanced physico-chemical technologies for water detoxification and disinfection

One of the most critical challenges we face today is access to clean water. Climate change, industrialization, high rates of urbanization, and population growth have resulted in many countries suffering from water crises, especially in the arid and semi-arid areas. Countries in different regions of the world have also been struggling over regional water availability and it is anticipated that these struggles may result in conflicts over shared water resources in these regions. Considering the adverse consequences of the water crisis, countries have been trying to increasingly cope with this problem of water availability by implementing sustainable water management plans and looking for alternative water supply sources.

Frontiers in Environmental Science

A gel probe equilibrium sampler for measuring arsenic porewater profiles and sorption gradients in sediments: II. Field application to Haiwee reservoir sediment

Arsenic (As) geochemistry and sorption behavior were measured in As- and iron (Fe)-rich sediments of Haiwee Reservoir by deploying undoped (clear) polyacrylamide gels and hydrous ferric oxide (HFO)-doped gels in a gel probe equilibrium sampler, which is a novel technique for directly measuring the effects of porewater composition on As adsorption to Fe oxides phases in situ. Arsenic is deposited at the sediment surface as As(V) and is reduced to As(III) in the upper layers of the sediment (0-8 cm), but the reduction of As(V) does not cause mobilization into the porewater. Dissolved As and Fe concentrations increased at depth in the sediment column driven by the reductive dissolution of amorphous Fe(III) oxyhydroxides and conversion to a mixed Fe(II, III) green rust-type phase. Adsorption of As and phosphorous (P) onto HFO-doped gels was inhibited at intermediate depths (10-20 cm), possibly due to dissolved organic or inorganic carbon, indicating that dissolved As concentrations were at least partially controlled by porewater composition rather than surface site availability. In sediments that had been recently exposed to air, the region of sorption inhibition was not observed, suggesting that prior exposure to air affected the extent of reductive dissolution, porewater chemistry, and As adsorption behavior. Arsenic adsorption onto the HFO-doped gels increased at depths >20 cm, and the extent of adsorption was most likely controlled by the competitive effects of dissolved phosphate. Sediment As adsorption capacity appeared to be controlled by changes in porewater composition and competitive effects at shallower depths, and by reductive dissolution and availability of sorption sites at greater burial depths. ?? 2008 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology

Groundwater quality, age, and susceptibility and vulnerability to nitrate contamination with linkages to land use and groundwater flow, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, Colorado, 2013

The Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin is located about 25 kilometers east of Colorado Springs, Colorado. The primary aquifer is a productive section of unconsolidated deposits that overlies bedrock units of the Denver Basin and is a critical resource for local water needs, including irrigation, domestic, and commercial use. The primary aquifer also serves an important regional role by the export of water to nearby communities in the Colorado Springs area. Changes in land use and development over the last decade, which includes substantial growth of subdivisions in the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, have led to uncertainty regarding the potential effects to water quality throughout the basin. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Cherokee Metropolitan District, El Paso County, Meridian Service Metropolitan District, Mountain View Electric Association, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Groundwater Management District, Woodmen Hills Metropolitan District, Colorado State Land Board, and Colorado Water Conservation Board, and the stakeholders represented in the Groundwater Quality Study Committee of El Paso County conducted an assessment of groundwater quality and groundwater age with an emphasis on characterizing nitrate in the groundwater. Groundwater-quality samples were collected from 50 randomly selected wells between May and June 2013. The samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, dissolved gases, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113), and fuel products (such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes). None of the groundwater samples exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Primary Drinking Water Regulations for primary maximum contaminant levels (MCL) for major ions. Secondary maximum contaminant levels, which are not health concerns and affect mainly taste, color, or odor of the water, were observed in rare instances for pH (2 samples), chloride (1 sample), iron (3 samples), and manganese (8 samples). The secondary maximum contaminant level for total dissolved solids was also exceeded for two samples. Nitrate (nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen in groundwater) was elevated above the estimated background concentration of natural recharge waters of 1 milligram per liter (mg/L) in 44 of the 50 wells sampled and showed a median concentration of 5.4 mg/L. Nitrate concentrations were above the MCL of 10 mg/L in 5 of the 50 wells sampled and above half of the EPA MCL (5 mg/L) in 27 of the 50 wells sampled, which included samples above the MCL. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations exceeded 0.5 mg/L in 95 percent of reported values (40 of 42 samples) and exceeded 2.0 mg/L in 90 percent of reported values (38 of 42 samples). The oxidized conditions observed in most areas indicate that nitrate from fertilizers and animal or human waste was geochemically stable and could persist in the groundwater for decades or perhaps longer. A historical analysis of median nitrate concentrations over nearly three decades showed an increase in nitrate of approximately 1 mg/L from 4.3 to 5.4 mg/L, although the increase was not determined to be significantly different using nonparametric statistical methods. Major-ion data indicate that groundwater representative of the primary aquifer was classified as calcium-sodium bicarbonate type water. Other water samples from wells located mainly along the periphery of the primary aquifer had cation-anion compositions consistent with distinct water sources, including groundwater contributions from the underlying bedrock aquifers. The areas with differentiable water sources were located mainly where alluvial deposits were thin and geologic contacts to the underlying bedrock aquifers were relatively shallow. Nitrate concentrations in the groundwater were evaluated for relations to land use. An agricultural region was defined using a sequence of land satellite imagery. Groundwater flow directions interpreted from median water-table elevations measured from 2000 to 2013 were used in conjunction with cropland locations to define the agricultural region boundaries by encompassing potential pathways of nitrate transport in the groundwater from nitrogen-based fertilizers. A statistically significant higher median nitrate concentration was observed for areas inside the agricultural region (6.7 mg/L) compared to areas outside the agricultural region (2.3 mg/L), although median concentrations in both areas were below the MCL (10 mg/L). Median nitrate concentration was also significantly greater in land parcels with septic use (4.9 mg/L) compared to nonseptic parcels (1.7 mg/L). In general, agriculture or septic use was identified as the primary source of nitrate, depending on location, while commercial, county, grazing, and residential land uses were generally secondary sources of nitrate. Apparent groundwater ages were estimated from chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113) and tritium ( 3 H) data using models that assumed piston flow and binary mixing (dilution of a young component with old, tracer-free water). The mean and median groundwater ages were about 30 years and the standard deviation was 6 years, indicating that most groundwater in the primary aquifer was “young” water that had recharged to the aquifer over the last few decades (post-1950s). The median fraction of young water was about 71 percent, and the standard deviation was 29 percent. The remaining water predated the 1950s, which may have originated from deeper geologic formations or may represent slow moving groundwater within the primary aquifer. Some of the oldest groundwater ages (older than 30 years) were observed in the upper reaches of the aquifer to the northwest where the primary aquifer is thin and intersects bedrock, supporting the hypothesis of geochemically distinct groundwater entering the primary aquifer from below. Groundwater that had reached the central part of the aquifer from upgradient areas of the basin was variable in age because of differences in flow paths and travel velocities. The groundwater age analysis showed that current (2013) land-use practices could affect water quality over decades to come, and that responses to remedial actions could be slow, especially for constituents, such as nitrate, that are stable under oxidized conditions. Fuel products (including acetone, benzene, diisopropyl ether, ethylbenzene, methyl acetate, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), methyl tert-pentyl ether, m- + p-xylene, o-xylene, tert-amyl alcohol, tert-butyl alcohol, tert-butyl ethyl ether, and toluene) were analyzed in groundwater from 49 of the 50 wells. Water from seven sites had detections for fuel compounds; all concentrations were below MCL. The results provided assurance of water quality and a valuable baseline to evaluate future trends of fuel constituents as the region is further developed. Probability maps were developed from logistic regression models to examine the likelihood that nitrate concentrations in groundwater exceeded specified levels. Susceptibility analysis examined relations between mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate concentrations and climatic, hydrologic, and geologic variables; the significant variables were identified as depth to groundwater, soil organic matter, and soil water storage to 25-centimeter (cm) depth. The vulnerability assessments included natural factors driving susceptibility but also human factors related to land use and septic use. Vulnerability to low-level (2.5 mg/L) nitrate was related to depth to groundwater, septic zoning, and soil organic matter. The results highlighted that septic zoning affected low-level nitrate concentrations. Vulnerability to mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate was examined using all 50 samples and also with two data outliers removed, which showed relatively high nitrate concentrations but also anomalous water chemistry or were located beyond the primary study area. Vulnerability to mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate using all 50 samples was related to depth to groundwater, land use, septic use within a 500-meter (m) radius, soil water storage to a 25-cm depth, soil organic matter, and whether a location was within the agricultural region. The mid-level (5.0 mg/L) vulnerability model using 48 samples (two outliers removed) produced the best overall fit and was related to the same variables as when using all samples except septic use. The results for mid-level vulnerability provided additional support that septic use was associated with low levels of nitrate in the groundwater. Soil properties and land use were identified as the main drivers of moderate nitrate concentrations. Probabilities of exceeding low-level nitrate concentrations were high in most areas with the lowest probabilities usually to the northwest along thin geologic deposits in the upper part of the basin. The results of this investigation offer the foundational information needed for developing best management practices to mitigate nitrate contamination, basic concepts on water quality to aid public education, and information to guide regulatory measures if policy makers determine this is warranted. Science-based decision making will require continued monitoring and analysis of water quality in the future.

Colorado

Interactions across spatial scales among forest dieback, fire, and erosion in northern New Mexico landscapes

Ecosystem patterns and disturbance processes at one spatial scale often interact with processes at another scale, and the result of such cross-scale interactions can be nonlinear dynamics with thresholds. Examples of cross-scale pattern-process relationships and interactions among forest dieback, fire, and erosion are illustrated from northern New Mexico (USA) landscapes, where long-term studies have recently documented all of these disturbance processes. For example, environmental stress, operating on individual trees, can cause tree death that is amplified by insect mortality agents to propagate to patch and then landscape or even regional-scale forest dieback. Severe drought and unusual warmth in the southwestern USA since the late 1990s apparently exceeded species-specific physiological thresholds for multiple tree species, resulting in substantial vegetation mortality across millions of hectares of woodlands and forests in recent years. Predictions of forest dieback across spatial scales are constrained by uncertainties associated with: limited knowledge of species-specific physiological thresholds; individual and site-specific variation in these mortality thresholds; and positive feedback loops between rapidly-responding insect herbivore populations and their stressed plant hosts, sometimes resulting in nonlinear “pest” outbreak dynamics. Fire behavior also exhibits nonlinearities across spatial scales, illustrated by changes in historic fire regimes where patch-scale grazing disturbance led to regional-scale collapse of surface fire activity and subsequent recent increases in the scale of extreme fire events in New Mexico. Vegetation dieback interacts with fire activity by modifying fuel amounts and configurations at multiple spatial scales. Runoff and erosion processes are also subject to scale-dependent threshold behaviors, exemplified by ecohydrological work in semiarid New Mexico watersheds showing how declines in ground surface cover lead to non-linear increases in bare patch connectivity and thereby accelerated runoff and erosion at hillslope and watershed scales. Vegetation dieback, grazing, and fire can change land surface properties and cross-scale hydrologic connectivities, directly altering ecohydrological patterns of runoff and erosion. The interactions among disturbance processes across spatial scales can be key drivers in ecosystem dynamics, as illustrated by these studies of recent landscape changes in northern New Mexico. To better anticipate and mitigate accelerating human impacts to the planetary ecosystem at all spatial scales, improvements are needed in our conceptual and quantitative understanding of cross-scale interactions among disturbance processes.

New Mexico

Middle- and late-Wisconsin paleobotanic and paleoclimatic records from the southern Colorado Plateau, USA

The Colorado Plateau is a distinct physiographic province in western North America, which presently straddles the transition between summer-wet and summer-dry climatic regimes to the south and northwest, respectively. In addition to climate, the diversity of environments and plant communities on the Colorado Plateau has resulted from extreme topographic diversity. Desert lowlands as low as 360 m elevation are surrounded by forested plateaus, and even higher peaks greater than 3800 m elevation. This environmental diversity provides a unique opportunity to study the history of biotic communities in an arid region of North America. Although the Colorado Plateau harbours numerous potential sites, the paleoecological record of the Plateau is poorly known. Potential deposits for analysis include packrat middens, alluvial and cave sites at lower elevations, and lake, bog and wetland sites at higher elevations. Forty-six sites have been analysed across the nearly 337,000 km2 region, of which 27 contain records that span Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (IS) 2 data, with IS 3 information coming from only 12 sites. Most IS 2 and 3 sites are clustered along the lowland regions of the Colorado River corridor and the uplands of the Mogollon Rim area. We compiled selected data from long paleoecological records to examine patterns of vegetation and climate change across the southern Colorado Plateau for the middle and late Wisconsin. During the middle Wisconsin, mixed conifers covered middle-elevations presently dominated by ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), and juniper (Juniperus) woodland grew at elevations today covered by blackbrush (Coleogyne) and sagebrush (Artemisia) desert. During the late Wisconsin, boreal conifers, primarily Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), replaced the mixed conifer association. Estimates of mean annual temperatures (MAT) during IS 3 were at least 3-4??C cooler than today, whereas IS 2 MAT estimates are at least 5??C colder. Our investigation of millennial-scale climatic variability within the region provided equivocal results. The packrat midden sequence could not distinguish vegetation changes that might be associated with Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. From the lake records, however, many Heinrich events were associated with generally drier intervals, often with elevated sagebrush pollen concentrations. Future paleoecological investigations should concentrate on the northern Colorado Plateau, as well as the eastern and western margins. Additional sites, along with closer-spaced sampling in regions already studied, will be important in determining the history of important climatic phenomena such as the timing of the Arizona monsoon.

Conference Paper

Permafrost and organic layer interactions over a climate gradient in a discontinuous permafrost zone

Permafrost is tightly coupled to the organic soil layer, an interaction that mediates permafrost degradation in response to regional warming. We analyzed changes in permafrost occurrence and organic layer thickness (OLT) using more than 3000 soil pedons across a mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient. Cause and effect relationships between permafrost probability (PF), OLT, and other topographic factors were investigated using structural equation modeling in a multi-group analysis. Groups were defined by slope, soil texture type, and shallow (<28 cm) versus deep organic (≥28 cm) layers. The probability of observing permafrost sharply increased by 0.32 for every 10-cm OLT increase in shallow OLT soils (OLTs) due to an insulation effect, but PF decreased in deep OLT soils (OLTd) by 0.06 for every 10-cm increase. Across the MAT gradient, PF in sandy soils varied little, but PF in loamy and silty soils decreased substantially from cooler to warmer temperatures. The change in OLT was more heterogeneous across soil texture types—in some there was no change while in others OLTs soils thinned and/or OLTd soils thickened at warmer locations. Furthermore, when soil organic carbon was estimated using a relationship with thickness, the average increase in carbon in OLTd soils was almost four times greater compared to the average decrease in carbon in OLTs soils across all soil types. If soils follow a trajectory of warming that mimics the spatial gradients found today, then heterogeneities of permafrost degradation and organic layer thinning and thickening should be considered in the regional carbon balance.

Environmental Research Letters

The historical context of contemporary climatic adaptation: A case study in the climatically dynamic and environmentally complex southwestern United States

The process of adaptation can be highly dependent upon historical and contemporary factors, especially in environmentally and topographically complex regions affected by Pleistocene glaciations. Here, we investigate Hilaria jamesii (Poaceae), a dryland C 4 graminoid, to test how patterns of adaptive genetic variation are linked to its glacial and post‐glacial history. We show that the species persisted in a single, southern refugium during the last glacial period and subsequently migrated throughout its current distribution concurrent with post‐glacial warming. The species’ putative adaptive genetic variation correlates with climatic gradients (e.g. monsoon precipitation and mean diurnal temperature range) that covary with the species’ probable route of demographic expansion. The short timescale and multiple climatic dimensions of adaptation imply that natural selection acted primarily upon standing genetic variation. These findings suggest that restoration and conservation practices should prioritize the maintenance of standing genetic variation to ensure that species have the capacity to respond to future environmental changes.

Arizona, California Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,

Reconstruction of Holocene and Last Interglacial vegetation dynamics and wildfire activity in Southern Siberia

Wildfires are a rapidly increasing threat to boreal forests. While our understanding of the drivers behind wildfires and their environmental impact is growing, it is mostly limited to the observational period. Here we focus on the boreal forests of southern Siberia and exploit a U–Th-dated stalagmite from Botovskaya Cave, located in the upper Lena region of southern Siberia, to document wildfire activity and vegetation dynamics during parts of two warm periods: the Last Interglacial (LIG; specifically part of the Last Interglacial maximum between 124.1 and 118.8 ka) and the Holocene (10–0 ka). Our record is based on levoglucosan (Lev), a biomarker sensitive to biomass burning, and on lignin oxidation products (LOPs) that discriminate between open and closed forest and hard- or softwood vegetation. In addition, we used carbonate carbon stable isotope ratios ( δ 13 C ), which reflect a dominant control of the host rock, to evaluate soil respiration and local infiltration changes. Our LOP data suggest that, during the Last Interglacial, the region around Botovskaya Cave was characterised by open forest, which by ca. 121.5 ka underwent a transition from fire-resistant hardwood to fire-prone softwood. The Lev record indicates that fire activity was high and increased towards the end of Last Interglacial just before 119 ka. In contrast, the Holocene was characterised by a closed-forest environment with mixed hard- and softwood vegetation. Holocene fire activity varied but at a much lower level than during the Last Interglacial. We attribute the changes in wildfire activity during the intervals of interest to the interplay between vegetation and climate. The open forests of the Last Interglacial were more likely to ignite than their closed Holocene equivalents, and their flammability was aided by warmer and drier summers and a stronger seasonal temperature contrast due to the increase in seasonal insolation difference compared to the Holocene. Our comparison of the last two interglacial intervals suggests that, with increasing global temperatures, the boreal forest of southern Siberia may become progressively more vulnerable to higher wildfire activity.

Botovskaya Cave, Siberia

Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates

Responses to climate change can vary across functional groups and trophic levels, leading to a temporal decoupling of trophic interactions or ‘phenological mismatches.’ Despite a growing number of single-species studies that identified phenological mismatches as a nearly universal consequence of climate change, we have a limited understanding of the spatial variation in the intensity of this phenomenon nor what influences this variation. In this study, we tested for geographic patterns in phenological mismatches between six species of shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at ten sites spread across ~13º latitude and ~84º longitude in the Arctic over three years. At each site, we quantified the phenological mismatch between shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at: 1) an individual nest level, as the difference in days between the seasonal peak in food and the peak demand by chicks, and 2) a population level, as the overlapped area under fitted curves for total daily biomass of invertebrates and dates of the peak demand by chicks. We tested whether the intensity of past climatic change observed at each site corresponded with the extent of phenological mismatch and used Structural Equation Modeling to test for causal relationships among: 1) environmental factors, including geographic location and current climatic conditions, 2) the timing of invertebrate emergence and the breeding phenology of shorebirds, and 3) the phenological mismatch between the two trophic levels. The extent of phenological mismatch varied more among different sites than among different species within each site. A greater extent of phenological mismatch at both the individual-nest and population-levels coincided with changes in the timing of snowmelt as well as the potential dissociation of long-term snow phenology from changes in temperature. The timing of snowmelt also affected the shape of the food and demand curves, which determined the extent of phenological mismatch at the population level. Finally, we found larger mismatches at more easterly longitudes, which may be affecting the population dynamics of shorebirds, as two of our study species show regional population declines in only the eastern part of their range. This suggests that phenological mismatches may be resulting in demographic consequences for arctic-nesting birds.

Alaska

A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa

Observations and simulations link anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions with rapidly increasing Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Over the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific, extending the tropical warm pool to the west by ~40° longitude (>4,000 km). This propensity toward rapid warming in the Indian Ocean has been the dominant mode of interannual variability among SSTs throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (55°E–140°W) since at least 1948, explaining more variance than anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the atmosphere, the primary mode of variability has been a corresponding trend toward greatly increased convection and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The temperature and rainfall increases in this region have produced a westward extension of the western, ascending branch of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Diabatic heating due to increased mid-tropospheric water vapor condensation elicits a westward atmospheric response that sends an easterly flow of dry air aloft toward eastern Africa. In recent decades (1980–2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the ‘long-rains’ season of March–June. This trend toward drought contrasts with projections of increased rainfall in eastern Africa and more ‘El Niño-like’ conditions globally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs appear likely to continue to strongly modulate the Warm Pool circulation, reducing precipitation in eastern Africa, regardless of whether the projected trend in ENSO is realized. These results have important food security implications, informing agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resource planning.

Climate Dynamics

Future aquatic invaders of the Northeast U.S.: How climate change, human vectors, and natural history could bring southern and western species north

As environmental conditions change, land managers are increasingly concerned about the potential for new aquatic invasive species to move into their jurisdictions. Because managers may have limited resources, detecting invasive species early is important as prevention is more effective and less costly than ongoing mitigation of established populations. Tools built to assist early detection efforts often use information on pathways of spread (how species move through a landscape) and maps of suitability (where habitat allows a species to live and reproduce). While each is useful, information on pathways or suitability alone provides only a part of the story of invasion risk. To better anticipate the risk of invasive species expanding their ranges into the Northeast U.S., there is a need to improve the way we combine and use pathways and suitability information, especially across large areas (e.g., states, regions). To fill this need, we took a new approach that combines estimates of current and future suitability with a diverse variety of pathways that gives us invasion risk scores for more than 100 freshwater invaders (fishes, plants, and invertebrates) across the Northeast U.S. In this report, we provide an overview of our methodology, results, and a description of the ongoing work to make the data publicly available. This work can be used to aid early detection efforts and associated management activities at state and local levels, including the identification of invasion risk hotspots and ranking of individual species risk to help anticipate and prevent invader establishment.

northeast United States

Carbon dynamics and land-use choices: building a regional-scale multidisciplinary model

Policy enabling tropical forests to approach their potential contribution to global-climate-change mitigation requires forecasts of land use and carbon storage on a large scale over long periods. In this paper, we present an integrated modeling methodology that addresses these needs. We model the dynamics of the human land-use system and of C pools contained in each ecosystem, as well as their interactions. The model is national scale, and is currently applied in a preliminary way to Costa Rica using data spanning a period of over 50 years. It combines an ecological process model, parameterized using field and other data, with an economic model, estimated using historical data to ensure a close link to actual behavior. These two models are linked so that ecological conditions affect land-use choices and vice versa. The integrated model predicts land use and its consequences for C storage for policy scenarios. These predictions can be used to create baselines, reward sequestration, and estimate the value in both environmental and economic terms of including C sequestration in tropical forests as part of the efforts to mitigate global climate change. The model can also be used to assess the benefits from costly activities to increase accuracy and thus reduce errors and their societal costs.

Journal of Environmental Management

Designing a global assessment of climate change on inland fishes and fisheries: knowns and needs

To date, there are few comprehensive assessments of how climate change affects inland finfish, fisheries, and aquaculture at a global scale, but one is necessary to identify research needs and commonalities across regions and to help guide decision making and funding priorities. Broadly, the consequences of climate change on inland fishes will impact global food security, the livelihoods of people who depend on inland capture and recreational fisheries. However, understanding how climate change will affect inland fishes and fisheries has lagged behind marine assessments. Building from a North American inland fisheries assessment, we convened an expert panel from seven countries to provide a first-step to a framework for determining how to approach an assessment of how climate change may affect inland fishes, capture fisheries, and aquaculture globally. Starting with the small group helped frame the key questions (e.g., who is the audience? What is the best approach and spatial scale?). Data gaps identified by the group include: the tolerances of inland fisheries to changes in temperature, stream flows, salinity, and other environmental factors linked to climate change, and the adaptive capacity of fishes and fisheries to adjust to these changes. These questions are difficult to address, but long-term and large-scale datasets are becoming more readily available as a means to test hypotheses related to climate change. We hope this perspective will help researchers and decision makers identify research priorities and provide a framework to help sustain inland fish populations and fisheries for the diversity of users around the globe.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries

Eastern Cascades Slopes and Foothills Ecoregion: Chapter 12 in Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000

The Eastern Cascades Slopes and Foothills Ecoregion (Omernik, 1987; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1997) covers approximately 57,329 km² (22,135 mi²) in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California (fig. 1). The ecoregion is bounded on the east by the Columbia Plateau, Blue Mountains, and Northern Basin and Range Ecoregions; on the south by the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion; on the west by the Klamath Mountains and Cascades Ecoregions; and on the north by the North Cascades Ecoregion (fig. 1). Because the Eastern Cascades Slopes and Foothills Ecoregion lies within the rain shadow of the Cascade Range, the annual amount of precipitation varies greatly, from 500 mm in the eastern and southern sections of the ecoregion to 3,000 mm in the area bordering the higher Cascade Range to the west. Precipitation (either rain or snow) falls mostly in the fall, through winter into spring. Elevations range from near sea level at the Columbia River to more than 3,300 m; most of the region is between 900 and 2,000 m high. In the plateaus, elevation generally varies from 60 to 600 m (McNab and Avers, 1994).

California;Oregon;Washington

Factors influencing distributional shifts and abundance at the range core of a climate-sensitive mammal

Species are frequently responding to contemporary climate change by shifting to higher elevations and poleward to track suitable climate space. However, depending on local conditions and species’ sensitivity, the nature of these shifts can be highly variable and difficult to predict. Here, we examine how the American pika ( Ochotona princeps ), a philopatric, montane lagomorph, responds to climatic gradients at three spatial scales. Using mixed-effects modeling in an information-theoretic approach, we evaluated a priori model suites regarding predictors of site occupancy, relative abundance, and elevational-range retraction across 760 talus patches, nested within 64 watersheds across the Northern Rocky Mountains of North America, during 2017–2020. The top environmental predictors differed across these response metrics. Warmer temperatures in summer and winter were associated with lower occupancy, lower relative abundances, and greater elevational retraction across watersheds. Occupancy was also strongly influenced by habitat patch size, but only when combined with climate metrics such as actual evapotranspiration. Using a second analytical approach, acute heat stress and summer precipitation best explained retraction residuals (i.e., the relative extent of retraction given the original elevational range of occupancy). Despite the study domain occurring near the species’ geographic-range center, where populations might have higher abundances and be at lower risk of climate-related stress, 33.9% of patches showed evidence of recent extirpations. Pika-extirpated sites averaged 1.44℃ warmer in summer than did occupied sites. Additionally, the minimum elevation of pika occupancy has retracted upslope in 69% of watersheds (mean: 281 m). Our results emphasize the nuance associated with evaluating species’ range dynamics in response to climate gradients, variability, and temperature exceedances, especially in regions where species occupy gradients of conditions that may constitute multiple range edges. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of evaluating diverse drivers across response metrics to improve the predictive accuracy of widely used, correlative models.

Idaho, Montana