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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 847 records · Page 47Linked to original sources
USGS2014

A new method of snowmelt sampling for water stable isotopes

We modified a passive capillary sampler (PCS) to collect snowmelt water for isotopic analysis. Past applications of PCSs have been to sample soil water, but the novel aspect of this study was the placement of the PCSs at the ground-snowpack interface to collect snowmelt. We deployed arrays of PCSs at 11 sites in ten partner countries on five continents representing a range of climate and snow cover worldwide. The PCS reliably collected snowmelt at all sites and caused negligible evaporative fractionation effects in the samples. PCS is low-cost, easy to install, and collects a representative integrated snowmelt sample throughout the melt season or at the melt event scale. Unlike snow cores, the PCS collects the water that would actually infiltrate the soil; thus, its isotopic composition is appropriate to use for tracing snowmelt water through the hydrologic cycle. The purpose of this Briefing is to show the potential advantages of PCSs and recommend guidelines for constructing and installing them based on our preliminary results from two snowmelt seasons.

Hydrological Processes↗
USGS2019

Remote sensing as the foundation for high-resolution United States landscape projections – The Land Change Monitoring, assessment, and projection (LCMAP) initiative

The Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative uses temporally dense Landsat data and time series analyses to characterize landscape change in the United States from 1985 to present. LCMAP will be used to explain how past, present, and future landscape change affects society and natural systems. Here, we describe a modeling framework for producing high-resolution (spatial and thematic) landscape projections at a national scale, using a unique parcel-based modeling framework. The methodology was tested by modeling 11 land use scenarios and 3 climate realizations for the U.S. Great Plains. Results demonstrate 1) an ability to balance competing land-use demands from quite variable, complex scenarios, 2) urban growth that matches theoretical future patterns, 3) the value of remote sensing data sources for model parameterization and for deriving landscape parcels, and 4) a pragmatic approach that facilitates the development of high thematic- and spatial-resolution projections at a national scale.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS2009

Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and morefundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2012

Limnology of the Green Lakes Valley: Phytoplankton ecology and dissolved organic matter biogeochemistry at a long-term ecological research site

Background : Surface waters are the lowest points in the landscape, and therefore serve as excellent integrators and indicators of changes taking place in the surrounding terrestrial and atmospheric environment. Aims : Here we synthesise the findings of limnological studies conducted during the past 15 years in streams and lakes in the Green Lakes Valley, which is part of the Niwot Ridge Long-term Ecological Research (LTER) Site. Methods : The importance of these studies is discussed in the context of aquatic ecosystems as indicators, integrators, and regulators of environmental change. Specifically, investigations into climatic, hydrologic, and nutrient controls on present-day phytoplankton, and historical diatom, community composition in the alpine lake, Green Lake 4, are reviewed. In addition, studies of spatial and temporal patterns in dissolved organic matter (DOM) biogeochemistry and reactive transport modelling that have taken place in the Green Lakes Valley are highlighted. Results and conclusions : The findings of these studies identify specific shifts in algal community composition and DOM biogeochemistry that are indicative of changing environmental conditions and provide a framework for detecting future environmental change in the Green Lakes Valley and in other alpine watersheds. Moreover, the studies summarised here demonstrate the importance of long-term monitoring programmes such as the LTER programme.

Colorado↗
USGS2006

A Century of Retreat at Portage Glacier, South-Central Alaska

Introduction: The Portage Glacier, in south-central Alaska, is viewed by thousands of visitors annually who come to the U.S. Forest Service Begich, Boggs Visitor Center located on the road system between Anchorage and Whittier, Alaska. During the past century, the terminus of the glacier has retreated nearly 5 kilometers to its present location (fig. 1). Like other glaciers that terminate in water, such as Columbia Glacier near Valdez or Mendenhall Glacier near Juneau, Portage Glacier has experienced accelerated retreats in recent decades that likely were initially triggered by climate change begun at the end of the Little Ice Age in the mid-1800s and subsequently controlled in recent history primarily by calving of the glacier terminus. Photographic records of the terminus covering 1914 until present day track the patterns of retreat. These data, coupled with USGS climate information collected from the southern end of the ice field, provide insight to the patterns of retreat that might be observed in the future.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2005

South Fork Iowa River watershed selected for a national water-quality study

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is studying seven watersheds across the Nation to better understand how natural factors and agricultural management practices (AMPs) affect the transport of water and chemicals. Natural factors include climate and landscape (soil type, topography, geology), and AMPs include practices related to tillage, irrigation, and chemical application. The study approach is similar in each watershed so that we can compare and contrast the results and more accurately predict conditions in other agricultural settings. Study objectives Understand the links between the sources of water and agricultural chemicals (nutrients and pesticides) and their behavior and transport through the environment Predict the behavior and transport of water and agricultural chemicals in other agricultural areas not being studied Evaluate what the study results mean for management of water and water quality in a variety of agricultural settings We appreciate your help We are working with local growers and land owners to gain access to study sites. We also need information about the watershed and about current as well as historical agricultural management practices—past practices also affect concentrations of agricultural chemicals in ground and surface water. We will report the findings of the study in public meetings and in publications. These findings will provide information that will be useful for improving agricultural management locally and nationally, and will guide future studies in other watersheds. Why study the South Fork Iowa River watershed? The South Fork Iowa River and the other watersheds represent nationally important agricultural settings (chemical use, crops, and AMPs) and natural settings (climate, soils, topography, and geology). South Fork Iowa River, which is part of the Iowa River watershed, is representative of corn and soybean row cropping in the Midwest. Other features of the watershed that are relevant to this study: Use of agricultural chemicals: Commonly used chemicals include herbicides such as atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, and glyphosate; and fertilizers, both manure and chemical. Distinct natural setting: Low relief topography with common depressions that formerly formed ponds and wetlands and that are now drained by an extensive network of drainage tiles and ditches. Variety of agricultural management practices: AMPs include both tillage and no-tillage of fields used for corn and soybean production; production of large numbers of hogs in concentrated animal feeding facilities; small grassy riparian buffer zones commonly used to reduce overland runoff. Water-quality issues: Herbicides and nutrients have been frequently detected in Iowa surface and ground water, including in drinking-water wells (findings of USGS studies since the 1990s).

Iowa, Minnesota↗
USGS2022

Ungulate migration in a changing climate—An initial assessment of climate impacts, management priorities, and science needs

Executive Summary Migratory behavior among ungulates in the Western United States occurs in response to changing forage quality and quantity, weather patterns, and predation risk. As snow melts and vegetation green-up begins in late spring and early summer, many migratory ungulates leave their winter range and move to higher elevation summer ranges to access high-quality forage and areas with vegetative cover for protection during fawning. Ungulates remain on these ranges until the fall when increasing snowfall and decreasing temperatures trigger them to migrate back to their lower elevation winter ranges. While researchers have begun to assess the effects of physical barriers such as roads and energy infrastructure on migration, less attention has been paid to understanding how changing climate conditions might affect ungulate movements and range habitats. Does earlier spring green-up make ungulates leave their winter ranges sooner? Do persistent drought conditions reduce the carrying capacity of seasonal range habitats or lead to shifts in migration pathways? These and other questions remain largely unanswered but could have cascading effects on ungulate population dynamics and migratory behavior. In February 2018, the Secretary of the Interior signed Department of the Interior Secretarial Order 3362 (SO3362), “Improving Habitat Quality in Western Big-Game Winter Range and Migration Corridors.” The order, which focuses on elk, mule deer, and pronghorn in 11 Western States, directs the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the National Park Service (NPS), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to partner with State wildlife agencies on their priorities and objectives for identifying and conserving ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat. The USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) were established to help managers of the Nation’s fish, wildlife, waters, and lands understand the effects of climate change and adapt to changing conditions. To support the recent Department of the Interior (DOI) emphasis on ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat, this report assesses current information on how climate change could affect elk, mule deer, and pronghorn migration. The report synthesizes the drivers of migration, outlines what is known about how climate change might affect these drivers, and summarizes management priorities and science needs related to ungulate migration corridors and range habitat. A review of the literature on ungulate migration shows that the core drivers of spring migration are the timing of spring green-up and snowmelt, and the core driver of fall migration is winter severity. After exploring what is known about how these drivers affect or could be affected by climate change, several pathways through which ungulate migration could be altered were identified: (1) ungulates alter migration timing to better track plant phenology or in response to changes in winter conditions; (2) ungulates change their migration route or distance traveled during migration to accommodate changes in environmental conditions; and (3) ungulate populations that are currently migratory may begin to demonstrate interannual variability in whether they migrate, depending on environmental conditions and density-dependence, and may remain resident for sets of consecutive years. Through discussions with managers, physical barriers to movement such as roads and fences were identified as a core concern. In addition, the primary research needs of States are the acquisition and analysis of data on ungulate movements, to refine delineation of winter range, summer range, and corridors, and to support a better understanding of how ungulates use these habitats. When it comes to understanding climate effects, managers were more concerned with understanding the vulnerability of winter- and summer-range habitats than the vulnerability of migration corridors because of the influence of summer and winter forage on ungulate condition and reproductive success. Managers were also concerned about how forage quality and quantity might change because of stressors such as drought, wildfire, and invasive species and how they might need to alter habitat-treatment strategies as a result. More baseline data are needed before effective projections of ungulate migration, at a West-wide scale under climate change, can be made. These data needs include (1) more clearly defined corridors and seasonal range habitats; (2) a comprehensive understanding of the ecological drivers of migration across ungulate species and populations; and (3) the identification of environmental thresholds for key variables that influence migration, above which ungulates alter migratory behavior. The CASCs have several opportunities to play a role in addressing these needs. The CASCs could initiate projects to identify past and potential future changes and trends in key variables known to affect ungulate migration, such as plant phenology, forage quality, or winter severity. However, it would be difficult to use this information to determine what those trends mean for ungulate migration due to the lack of knowledge about environmental thresholds for ungulates. Additional projects would be required to compare multiple years of movement data with key variables to define thresholds. Once available, information on environmental thresholds could be integrated with projections of key variables to forecast the likelihood that the migration routes or the distance traveled could change—another area in which the CASCs could contribute. A more immediate role for the CASCs would be to carry out synthesis projects. One such project could summarize the “state of the science” on the drivers of ungulate migration. Although there are dozens of population- and location-specific studies on this topic, collating this information could help highlight trends in migration drivers that span species and geographies: a necessary first step toward determining the extent to which migration drivers could be affected by climate change. A second project could focus on what is known about how climate variability and change affect ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in the Western United States. The goal of this effort could be to identify knowledge clusters and information gaps that require further investigation. Together, these synthesized products could focus future scientific activities on the most pressing issues of ungulate migration and climate change in the Western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New↗
USGS2002

Arctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system

Synthesis of results from several Arctic and boreal research programmes provides evidence for the strong role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system. Average surface air temperature has increased 0.3??C per decade during the twentieth century in the western North American Arctic and boreal forest zones. Precipitation has also increased, but changes in soil moisture are uncertain. Disturbance rates have increased in the boreal forest; for example, there has been a doubling of the area burned in North America in the past 20 years. The disturbance regime in tundra may not have changed. Tundra has a 3-6-fold higher winter albedo than boreal forest, but summer albedo and energy partitioning differ more strongly among ecosystems within either tundra or boreal forest than between these two biomes. This indicates a need to improve our understanding of vegetation dynamics within, as well as between, biomes. If regional surface warming were to continue, changes in albedo and energy absorption would likely act as a positive feedback to regional warming due to earlier melting of snow and, over the long term, the northward movement of treeline. Surface drying and a change in dominance from mosses to vascular plants would also enhance sensible heat flux and regional warming in tundra. In the boreal forest of western North America, deciduous forests have twice the albedo of conifer forests in both winter and summer, 50-80% higher evapotranspiration, and therefore only 30-50% of the sensible heat flux of conifers in summer. Therefore, a warming-induced increase in fire frequency that increased the proportion of deciduous forests in the landscape, would act as a negative feedback to regional warming. Changes in thermokarst and the aerial extent of wetlands, lakes, and ponds would alter high-latitude methane flux. There is currently a wide discrepancy among estimates of the size and direction of CO2 flux between high-latitude ecosystems and the atmosphere. These discrepancies relate more strongly to the approach and assumptions for extrapolation than to inconsistencies in the underlying data. Inverse modelling from atmospheric CO2 concentrations suggests that high latitudes are neutral or net sinks for atmospheric CO2, whereas field measurements suggest that high latitudes are neutral or a net CO2 source. Both approaches rely on assumptions that are difficult to verify. The most parsimonious explanation of the available data is that drying in tundra and disturbance in boreal forest enhance CO2 efflux. Nevertheless, many areas of both tundra and boreal forests remain net sinks due to regional variation in climate and local variation in topographically determined soil moisture. Improved understanding of the role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system requires a concerted research effort that focuses on geographical variation in the processes controlling land-atmosphere exchange, species composition, and ecosystem structure. Future studies must be conducted over a long enough time-period to detect and quantify ecosystem feedbacks.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2018

Against the current— The Mojave River from sink to source: The 2018 Desert Symposium field trip road log

The Mojave River evolved over the past few million years by “fill and spill” from upper basins near its source in the Transverse Ranges to lower basins. Each newly “spilled into” basin in the series? sustained a long-lived lake but gradually filled with Mojave River sediment, leading to spill to a yet lower elevation? basin. The Mojave River currently terminates at Silver Lake, near Baker, CA, but previously overflowed this terminus onward to Lake Manly in Death Valley during the last glacial cycle. The river’s origin and evolution are intricately interwoven with tectonic, climatic, and geomorphic processes through time, beginning with San Andreas fault interactions that created a mountain range across a former externally draining river. We will see and discuss the Mojave River’s predecessor streams and basins, its evolution as it lengthened to reach the central Mojave Desert, local and regional tectonic controls, groundwater flow, flood history, and support of isolated perennial stream reaches that host endemic species. In association with these subjects are supporting studies such as paleoclimate records, location and timing for groundwater and wetlands in the central Mojave Desert, and effects of modern water usage. The trip introduces new findings for the groundwater basin of Hinkley Valley, including an ongoing remediation project that provides a wealth of information on past and present river flow and associated development of the groundwater system.

California↗
USGS2010

River solute fluxes reflecting active hydrothermal chemical weathering of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcanic Field, USA

In the past few decades numerous studies have quantified the load of dissolved solids in large rivers to determine chemical weathering rates in orogenic belts and volcanic areas, mainly motivated by the notion that over timescales greater than ~100kyr, silicate hydrolysis may be the dominant sink for atmospheric CO2, thus creating a feedback between climate and weathering. Here, we report the results of a detailed study during water year 2007 (October 1, 2006 to September 30, 2007) in the major rivers of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcanic Field (YPVF) which hosts Earth's largest "restless" caldera and over 10,000 thermal features. The chemical compositions of rivers that drain thermal areas in the YPVF differ significantly from the compositions of rivers that drain non-thermal areas. There are large seasonal variations in river chemistry and solute flux, which increases with increasing water discharge. The river chemistry and discharge data collected periodically over an entire year allow us to constrain the annual solute fluxes and to distinguish between low-temperature weathering and hydrothermal flux components. The TDS flux from Yellowstone Caldera in water year 2007 was 93t/km2/year. Extensive magma degassing and hydrothermal interaction with rocks accounts for at least 82% of this TDS flux, 83% of the cation flux and 72% of the HCO3- flux. The low-temperature chemical weathering rate (17t/km2/year), calculated on the assumption that all the Cl- is of thermal origin, could include a component from low-temperature hydrolysis reactions induced by CO2 ascending from depth rather than by atmospheric CO2. Although this uncertainty remains, the calculated low-temperature weathering rate of the young rhyolitic rocks in the Yellowstone Caldera is comparable to the world average of large watersheds that drain also more soluble carbonates and evaporates but is slightly lower than calculated rates in other, less-silicic volcanic regions. Long-term average fluxes at Yellowstone are likely ~20% higher than those in the abnormally dry water year 2007, but the protocol used in this study can be easily adaptable to track future changes in low-temperature weathering and hydrothermal flux components, which could provide better monitoring of magmatic unrest. ?? 2010.

Chemical Geology↗
USGS2001

Evolution of the conceptual model of unsaturated zone hydrology at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Yucca Mountain is an arid site proposed for consideration as the United States’ first underground high-level radioactive waste repository. Low rainfall (approximately 170 mm/yr) and a thick unsaturated zone (500–1000 m) are important physical attributes of the site because the quantity of water likely to reach the waste and the paths and rates of movement of the water to the saturated zone under future climates would be major factors in controlling the concentrations and times of arrival of radionuclides at the surrounding accessible environment. The framework for understanding the hydrologic processes that occur at this site and that control how quickly water will penetrate through the unsaturated zone to the water table has evolved during the past 15 yr. Early conceptual models assumed that very small volumes of water infiltrated into the bedrock (0.5–4.5 mm/yr, or 2–3 percent of rainfall), that much of the infiltrated water flowed laterally within the upper nonwelded units because of capillary barrier effects, and that the remaining water flowed down faults with a small amount flowing through the matrix of the lower welded, fractured rocks. It was believed that the matrix had to be saturated for fractures to flow. However, accumulating evidence indicated that infiltration rates were higher than initially estimated, such as infiltration modeling based on neutron borehole data, bomb-pulse isotopes deep in the mountain, perched water analyses and thermal analyses. Mechanisms supporting lateral diversion did not apply at these higher fluxes, and the flux calculated in the lower welded unit exceeded the conductivity of the matrix, implying vertical flow of water in the high permeability fractures of the potential repository host rock, and disequilibrium between matrix and fracture water potentials. The development of numerical modeling methods and parameter values evolved concurrently with the conceptual model in order to account for the observed field data, particularly fracture flow deep in the unsaturated zone. This paper presents the history of the evolution of conceptual models of hydrology and numerical models of unsaturated zone flow at Yucca Mountain, Nevada (Flint, A.L., Flint, L.E., Kwicklis, E.M., Bodvarsson, G.S., Fabryka-Martin, J.M., 2001. Hydrology of Yucca Mountain. Reviews of Geophysics in press). This retrospective is the basis for recommendations for optimizing the efficiency with which a viable and robust conceptual model can be developed for a complex site.

Nevada↗
USGS1994

U.S. Geological Survey yearbook, fiscal year 1993: At work across the Nation

The need for earth science has never been more paramount. The devastating flooding of the Mississippi River this past year, strikingly portrayed on the cover and discussed in detail in this report (p. 37-42), was a sobering reminder of nature's elemental power. As a Nation, we face many environmental and economic challenges, such as natural hazards, that can be addressed effectively only through science. Water quality, resource assessments, climate change, and toxic wastes are all critical issues that can best be dealt with when approached from a sound scientific base. The goal of the U.S. Geological Survey is to provide hydrologic, geologic, and topographic information and understanding that contribute to the wise management of the Nation's natural resources and that promote the health, safety, and well-being of all Americans. FY1993 has proven to be a particularly challenging one for the USGS. We entered into a time of transition from the long-term leadership of Director Dallas Peck and Associate Director Doyle Frederick to the appointment of a new director. We thank Dallas and Doyle for their many years of service and for their support during the transition.

Yearbook↗
USGS1998

Vulnerability of coastal wetlands in the Southeastern United States: climate change research results, 1992-97

As part of the USGCRP research framework on coastal lands and ecosystems, the Biological Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey (National Wetlands Research Center) entered into partnership with Rice University, Louisiana State University, Duke University, Clemson University, University of Southwestern Louisiana, University of Georgia, and the Virginia Institute of Marine Studies (University of Virginia ) to (1) document the current state vulnerability of coastal ecosystems including an assessment of past changes in land cover, (2) develop an understanding of the processes which underlie these changes, and (3) predict the extent of future alterations to these habitats and the consequences for the sustainability of the resource and land base. This document summarized the initial findings of our collaborative efforts. Overall, the studies exemplify an integrated approach addressing questions at the species, community, and landscape levels of organization and focusing on factors related to hydroperiod, sea-level rise, disturbance events, and coastal marsh submergence.

Biological Science Report↗
USGS2021

A typology of drought decision making: Synthesizing across cases to understand drought preparedness and response actions

Drought is an inescapable reality in many regions, including much of the western United States. With climate change, droughts are predicted to intensify and occur more frequently, making the imperative for drought management even greater. Many diverse actors – including private landowners, business owners, scientists, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and managers and policymakers within tribal, local, state, and federal government agencies – play multiple, often overlapping roles in preparing for and responding to drought. Managing water is, of course, one of the most important roles that humans play in both mitigating and responding to droughts; but, focusing only on “water managers” or “water management” fails to capture key elements related to the broader category of drought management. The respective roles played by those managing drought (as distinct from water managers), the interactions among them, and the consequences in particular contexts, are not well understood. Our team synthesized insights from 10 in-depth case studies to understand key facets of decision making about drought preparedness and response. We present a typology with four elements that collectively describe how decisions about drought preparedness and response are made (context and objective for a decision; actors responsible; choice being made or action taken; and how decisions interact with and influence other decisions). The typology provides a framework for system-level understanding of how and by whom complex decisions about drought management are made. Greater system-level understanding helps decision makers, program and research funders, and scientists to identify constraints to and opportunities for action, to learn from the past, and to integrate ecological impacts, thereby facilitating social learning among diverse participants in drought preparedness and response.

Colordao, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Or↗
USGS1993

Physical properties, mineralogy, and geochemistry of Holocene varved sediments from Elk Lake, Minnesota

Elk Lake in northwestern Minnesota is situated close to a climatically sensitive ecotone, the forest-prairie border, that migrated back and forth over the drainage basin of the lake during the Holocene. The entire postglacial (Holocene) sediment record in the deepest part of Elk Lake is composed of annual layers (varves) that record the seasonal pulses of many sediment components, and, most important, provide high-resolution (seasonal) time calibration of rates and timing of environmental change. These varved sediments contain many allochthonous and autochthonous components that are sensitive to changing environmental conditions in the drainage basin and the lake. The mineral components of Elk Lake sediments consist mainly of authigenic calcium, magnesium, and manganese carbonate minerals (low-Mg calcite, high-Mg calcite, dolomite, and rhodochrosite), opaline silica (from diatoms), X-ray amorphous iron and manganese oxyhydroxides, and an iron phosphate mineral tentatively identified as rock-bridgeite [(Fe, Mn)Fe 4 (PO 4 ) 3 (OH) 5 ], plus minor contributions from fine-grained detrital quartz, feldspar, illite, and kaolinite. The most notable characteristic of the sediments in Elk Lake is that most of the components were formed in the lake. Q-mode factor analysis of sediment geochemistry reduced 23 observed compositional variables, expressed as percent or parts per million of elements, to three composite variables (factor loadings) whose “concentrations” are expressed on a scale of −1.0 to 1.0. Factor 1 expresses the composition of the inorganic clastic fraction based on concentrations of Mg, Na, Al, Cr, V, Y, Sc, Ni, Sr, Co, and Cu. Factor 2 expresses the similarities in variations of Fe, Mn, P, organic carbon, and Mo. Factor 3 loadings are a synthesis of concentrations of Mn, S, Ca, La, and Ba. Geochemical characteristics define three distinct chemical stages in the development of Elk lake: (1) a carbonate-, manganese-, iron-, sulfur-rich early-lake stage that lasted from 10,400 to 8200 varve yr; (2) a clastic- and diatom-rich mid-Holocene prairie-lake stage that lasted from 8200 to 4000 varve yr; and (3) a final iron-, manganese-, phosphate-, and organic-rich modern-lake stage that developed over the past 4000 yr. The chemical characteristics of the sediments deposited during these three lake phases can be represented by the average compositions of three groups of samples: (1) the average composition of sediments deposited over the past 2000 yr, representing the modern-lake stage; (2) the composition of a 50 varve sample centered on 5700 varve yr that represents the maximum clastic influx into the lake during the prairie period; and (3) the average composition of sediments deposited over the initial 2000 yr of the lake’s existence (10,400 to 8400 varve yr). The amplitudes of climatic oscillations, as reflected by changes in concentration of many climatically sensitive elements, were greatest during the prairie period, pronounced cycles having periodicities of several hundred years. The extremes of these oscillations occurred within several centuries or less, which suggests that significant changes in climate may occur abruptly and rapidly. Most notably, the end of the mid-Holocene prairie period, marked by a sudden decrease in the influx of detrital clastic material, occurred within a few decades.

Minnesota↗
USGS2023

The relation between decadal droughts and eruptions of Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone National Park, USA

In the past century, most eruptions of Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone National Park's Norris Geyser Basin were mainly clustered in three episodes: 1961–1969, 1982–1984, and ongoing since 2018. These eruptive episodes resulted in extensive disturbance to surrounding trees. To characterize tree response over time as an indicator of geyser activity adjustments to climate variability, aerial and ground images were analyzed to document changes in tree coverage around the geyser since 1954. Radiocarbon dating of silicified tree remnants from within 14 m of the geyser vent was used to examine geyser response to possible variations in decadal to centennial precipitation patterns. We searched for atypical or absent growth rings in cores from live trees in years associated with large geyser eruptions. Photographs indicate that active eruptive phases have adversely affected trees up to 30 m from the vent, primarily in the dominant downwind direction. Radiocarbon dates indicate that the geyser formed before 1878, in contrast to the birthdate reported in historical documents. Further, the ages of the silicified trees cluster within three episodes that are temporally correlated with periods of relative drought in the Yellowstone region during the 15th–17th centuries. The discontinuous growth of trees around the geyser suggests that changes in eruptive patterns occur in response to decadal to multidecadal droughts. This inference is supported by the lack of silicified specimens with more than 20 annual rings and by the existence of atypical or missing rings in live trees during periods of extended geyser activity.

Wyoming↗
USGS2009

Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2009

Environmental influences on speleothem growth in southwestern Oregon during the last 380, 000 years

The growth of carbonate formations in caves (speleothems) is sensitive to changes in environmental conditions at the surface (temperature, precipitation and vegetation) and can provide useful paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental information. We use 73 230 Th dates from speleothems collected from a cave in southwestern Oregon (USA) to constrain speleothem growth for the past 380 000 years. Most speleothem growth occurred during interglacial periods, whereas little growth occurred during glacial intervals. To evaluate potential environmental controls on speleothem growth we use two new modeling approaches: i) a one-dimensional thermal advection–diffusion model to estimate cave temperatures during the last glacial cycle, and ii) a regional climate model simulation for the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years before present) that assesses a range of potential controls on speleothem growth under peak glacial conditions. The two models are mutually consistent in indicating that permafrost formation did not influence speleothem growth during glacial periods. Instead, the regional climate model simulation combined with proxy data suggest that the influence of the Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheets on atmospheric circulation induced substantial changes in water balance in the Pacific Northwest and affected speleothem growth at our location. The overall drier conditions during glacial intervals and associated periods of frozen topsoil at times of maximum surface runoff likely induced drastic changes in cave recharge and limited speleothem growth. This mechanism could have affected speleothem growth in other mid-latitude caves without requiring the presence of permafrost.

Oregon↗