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At least 829 records · Page 46Linked to original sources

Geotechnical characterization of TriNet sites: A status report

The TriNet project, launched in 1997, created an improved, real-time seismic monitoring network in Southern California. Planning of the network began in 1995 ( e.g. , Heaton et al. , 1996 ), building on the success of the earlier TERRAscope network, which included 24 digital broadband and strong-motion instruments throughout Southern California ( e.g. , Kanamori et al. , 1993 ). At the end of the five-year TriNet project the network comprised 150 real-time digital broadband stations and another 400 strong-motion sensors, 50 of which were also real-time. This network is now recording digital broadband data for Southern California earthquakes at an unprecedented rate, data that are already proving valuable for investigations of earthquake sources and regional wave propagation, as well as earthquake response. In this report we describe an ongoing effort aimed at a full geotechnical characterization of the newly installed TriNet sets. Shallow geologic structure is known to play a substantial role in controlling the ground motions recorded at any site. Documentation of amplified ground motion at soft-sediment sites can be found among even early macroseismic observations of strong ground motions ( e.g. , Drake, 1815 ). Seismic waves are also now known to be strongly affected by deep basin structure as well ( e.g. , Frankel et al. , 1991 ; Field, 2000 ; Joyner, 2000 ). It will be necessary to understand these effects to exploit fully the rich data set being recorded at TriNet sites. Clearly, the nature of site conditions and site response at the recording sites must be understood for studies focused on ground motions and hazard from future large earthquakes, but it is also necessary to understand these effects to conduct earthquake source studies of both large and small earthquakes. Our multifaceted site characterization project involves geological/geotechnical site investigations, database development, and investigation of empirical amplification factors determined from broadband and strong-motion data recorded to date. Our goal is to complete a first-order geologic site characterization by 2005 and then employ appropriate methods to obtain direct constraint on shallow shear-wave velocity structure at each site. In the latter effort we will endeavor to find the most accurate and cost-effective methods to quantify geotechnical parameters at sites that have ranges of geologic site conditions and cultural settings. Our long-term goal is to obtain direct estimates of the average shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m, Vs30, at each site. If velocity information is available to greater depths, for example at sites characterized under the ROSRINE project ( http://geoinfo.usc.edu/rosrine/ ), this information will be included in the database as well. The original motivation for using Vs30 to characterize near-surface velocity was pragmatic, determined by such factors as the typical reach of a drill rig in a single day. The parameter has become the accepted standard with which many seismic recording sites are characterized, however. In a recent study using mainshock and aftershock recordings at sites in the Los Angeles region, Wald and Mori ( 2000 ) observed good correlation between Vs30 and amplification at 1-7 Hz, albeit with significant scatter. The purpose of this report is threefold. First, we describe our ongoing efforts and present site characterization results collected to date for 62 broadband and strong-motion stations in and around the greater Los Angeles metropolitan region. Second, we present preliminary results that illustrate how improved geologic site characterizations can improve the correlation between site conditions and site response. Finally, we invite feedback from the community to guide our future investigations, in particular with respect to our ongoing database development efforts.

California↗

Rupture jumping and seismic complexity in models of earthquake cycles for fault stepovers with off‐fault plasticity

Fault stepovers are prime examples of geometric complexity in natural fault zones that may affect seismic hazard by determining whether an earthquake rupture continues propagating or abruptly stops. However, the long‐term pattern of seismicity near‐fault stepovers and underlying mechanisms of rupture jumping in the context of earthquake cycles are rarely studied. Leveraging a hybrid numerical scheme combining the finite element and the spectral boundary integral methods, FEBE, we carry out fully dynamic simulations of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip for both compressive and tensile stepovers with off‐fault plasticity. We consider a rate‐and‐state friction law for the fault friction and pressure‐sensitive Drucker–Prager plasticity for the off‐fault bulk response. We observe that the accumulation of plastic deformation, an indication of off‐fault damage, is significantly different in the two cases, with more plastic deformation projected in the overlapping region for the tensile stepover. The seismic pattern for a tensile stepover is more complex than for a compressive stepover, and incorporating plasticity also increases complexity, relative to the elastic case. A tensile stepover with off‐fault plasticity shows rupture segmentation, temporal clustering, and frequent rupture jumping from one fault to another. These results shed light on possible mechanisms of rupture jumping in fault stepovers as well as the long‐term evolution of the fault zone.

Bulletin of the Seismological Șociety of America↗

Implosion, earthquake, and explosion recordings from the 2000 Seattle Kingdome Seismic Hazards Investigation of Puget Sound (SHIPS), Washington

This report describes seismic data obtained in Seattle, Washington, March 24-28, 2000, during a Seismic Hazards Investigation of Puget Sound (SHIPS). The seismic recordings obtained by this SHIPS experiment, nicknamed Kingdome SHIPS, were designed to (1) measure site responses throughout Seattle and to (2) help define the location of the Seattle fault. During Kingdome SHIPS, we recorded the Kingdome implosion, four 150-lb (68-kg) shots, and a M w = 7.6 teleseism using a dense network of seismographs deployed throughout Seattle. The seismographs were deployed at a nominal spacing of 1 km in a hexagonal grid extending from Green Lake in the north to Boeing Field in the south. The Seattle Kingdome was a domed sports stadium located in downtown Seattle near the Seattle fault. The Seattle Kingdome was imploded (demolished) at 8:32 AM local time (16:32 UTC) on March 26 (JD 086), 2000. The seismic energy produced by implosion of the Kingdome was equivalent to a local earthquake magnitude of 2.3. Strong impacts produced by the implosion of the Kingdome generated seismic arrivals to frequencies as low as 0.1 Hz. Two shots located north of the Seattle fault, where the charges were detonated within the ground water column (Discovery and Magnuson Parks), were much more strongly coupled than were the two shots to the south of the Seattle fault, where the shots were detonated above the water table (Lincoln and Seward Parks). Thirty-eight RefTek stations, scattered throughout Seattle, recorded the M w = 7.6 Japan Volcano Islands earthquake (22.4°N, 143.6°E, 104 km depth) of 28 March 2000 (JD 088). This teleseism produced useful signals for periods between 4 and 7 seconds. Only a few recordings of small magnitude local earthquakes were made, and these recordings are not presented. In this report, we describe the acquisition of these data, discuss the processing and merging of the data into common shot gathers, and illustrate the acquired data. We also describe the format and content of the archival tapes containing the SEGY-formatted, common-shot gathers.

Washington↗

Significant earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system, Hispaniola, 1500-2010: Implications for seismic hazard

Historical records indicate frequent seismic activity along the north-east Caribbean plate boundary over the past 500 years, particularly on the island of Hispaniola. We use accounts of historical earthquakes to assign intensities and the intensity assignments for the 2010 Haiti earthquakes to derive an intensity attenuation relation for Hispaniola. The intensity assignments and the attenuation relation are used in a grid search to find source locations and magnitudes that best fit the intensity assignments. Here we describe a sequence of devastating earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system in the eighteenth century. An intensity magnitude M I 6.6 earthquake in 1701 occurred near the location of the 2010 Haiti earthquake, and the accounts of the shaking in the 1701 earthquake are similar to those of the 2010 earthquake. A series of large earthquakes migrating from east to west started with the 18 October 1751 M I 7.4–7.5 earthquake, probably located near the eastern end of the fault in the Dominican Republic, followed by the 21 November 1751 M I 6.6 earthquake near Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and the 3 June 1770 M I 7.5 earthquake west of the 2010 earthquake rupture. The 2010 Haiti earthquake may mark the beginning of a new cycle of large earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system after 240 years of seismic quiescence. The entire Enriquillo fault system appears to be seismically active; Haiti and the Dominican Republic should prepare for future devastating earthquakes.

Hispaniola↗

The size, distribution, and mobility of landslides caused by the 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal

Coseismic landslides pose immediate and prolonged hazards to mountainous communities, and provide a rare opportunity to study the effect of large earthquakes on erosion and sediment budgets. By mapping landslides using high-resolution satellite imagery, we find that the 25 April 2015 M w 7.8 Gorkha earthquake and aftershock sequence produced at least 25,000 landslides throughout the steep Himalayan Mountains in central Nepal. Despite early reports claiming lower than expected landslide activity, our results show that the total number, area, and volume of landslides associated with the Gorkha event are consistent with expectations, when compared to prior landslide-triggering earthquakes around the world. The extent of landsliding mimics the extent of fault rupture along the east-west trace of the Main Himalayan Thrust and increases eastward following the progression of rupture. In this event, maximum modeled Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the steepest topographic slopes of the High Himalaya are not spatially coincident, so it is not surprising that landslide density correlates neither with PGA nor steepest slopes on their own. Instead, we find that the highest landslide density is located at the confluence of steep slopes, high mean annual precipitation, and proximity to the deepest part of the fault rupture from which 0.5–2 Hz seismic energy originated. We suggest that landslide density was determined by a combination of earthquake source characteristics, slope distributions, and the influence of precipitation on rock strength via weathering and changes in vegetation cover. Determining the relative contribution of each factor will require further modeling and better constrained seismic parameters, both of which are likely to be developed in the coming few years as post-event studies evolve. Landslide mobility, in terms of the ratio of runout distance to fall height, is comparable to small volume landslides in other settings, and landslide volume-runout scaling is consistent with compilations of data on larger slope failures. In general, the size ratios of landslide source area to full landslide area are smaller than global averages, and hillslope length seems to largely control runout distance, which we propose reflects a topographic control on landslide mobility in this setting. We find that landslide size dictates runout distance and that more than half of the landslide debris was deposited in direct connection with stream channels. Connectivity, which is defined as the spatial proximity of landslides to fluvial channels, is greatest for larger landslides in the high-relief part of the High Himalaya. Although these failures are less abundant than those at lower elevations, they may have a disproportionate impact on sediment dynamics and cascading hazards, such as landslide reactivation by monsoon rainfall and landslide dams that lead to outburst floods. The overall high fluvial connectivity of coseismic landsliding in the Gorkha event suggests coupling between the earthquake cycle and sediment/geochemical budgets of fluvial systems in the Himalaya.

Geomorphology↗

The Mw 5.1 9 August 2020, Sparta earthquake, North Carolina: The first documented seismic surface rupture in the eastern United States

At 8:07 a.m. EDT on 9 Aug. 2020 a Mw 5.1 earthquake located ~3 km south of Sparta, North Carolina, USA, shook much of the eastern United States, producing the first documented surface rupture due to faulting east of the New Madrid seismic zone. The co-seismic surface rupture was identified along a 2-km-long traceable zone of predominantly reverse displacement, with folding and flexure generating a scarp averaging 8–10-cm-high with a maximum observed height of ~25 cm. Widespread deformation south of the main surface rupture includes cm-dm–long and mm-cm–wide fissures. Two trenches excavated across the surface rupture reveal that this earthquake propagated to the surface along a preexisting structure in the shallow bedrock, which had not been previously identified as an active fault. Surface ruptures by faulting are rarely reported for M <6 earthquakes, and hence the Sparta earthquake provides an opportunity to improve seismic hazard knowledge associated with these moderate events. Furthermore, this earthquake occurred in a very low strain rate intraplate setting, where earthquake surface deformation, regardless of magnitude, is sparse in time and rare to observe and characterize.

North Carolina↗

Key science issues in the central and eastern United States for the next version of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps are updated about every six years by incorporating newly vetted science on earthquakes and ground motions. The 2008 hazard maps for the central and eastern United States region (CEUS) were updated by using revised New Madrid and Charleston source models, an updated seismicity catalog and an estimate of magnitude uncertainties, a distribution of maximum magnitudes, and several new ground-motion prediction equations. The new models resulted in significant ground-motion changes at 5 Hz and 1 Hz spectral acceleration with 5% damping compared to the 2002 version of the hazard maps. The 2008 maps have now been incorporated into the 2009 NEHRP Recommended Provisions, the 2010 ASCE-7 Standard, and the 2012 International Building Code. The USGS is now planning the next update of the seismic hazard maps, which will be provided to the code committees in December 2013. Science issues that will be considered for introduction into the CEUS maps include: 1) updated recurrence models for New Madrid sources, including new geodetic models and magnitude estimates; 2) new earthquake sources and techniques considered in the 2010 model developed by the nuclear industry; 3) new NGA-East ground-motion models (currently under development); and 4) updated earthquake catalogs. We will hold a regional workshop in late 2011 or early 2012 to discuss these and other issues that will affect the seismic hazard evaluation in the CEUS.

Conference Paper↗

Ground motion models used in the 2014 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

The National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHMs) are an important component of seismic design regulations in the United States. This paper compares hazard using the new suite of ground motion models (GMMs) relative to hazard using the suite of GMMs applied in the previous version of the maps. The new source characterization models are used for both cases. A previous paper ( Rezaeian et al. 2014 ) discussed the five NGA-West2 GMMs used for shallow crustal earthquakes in the Western United States (WUS), which are also summarized here. Our focus in this paper is on GMMs for earthquakes in stable continental regions in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), as well as subduction interface and deep intraslab earthquakes. We consider building code hazard levels for peak ground acceleration (PGA), 0.2-s, and 1.0-s spectral accelerations (SAs) on uniform firm-rock site conditions. The GMM modifications in the updated version of the maps created changes in hazard within 5% to 20% in WUS; decreases within 5% to 20% in CEUS; changes within 5% to 15% for subduction interface earthquakes; and changes involving decreases of up to 50% and increases of up to 30% for deep intraslab earthquakes for most U.S. sites. These modifications were combined with changes resulting from modifications in the source characterization models to obtain the new hazard maps.

Earthquake Spectra↗

San Andreas fault exploration using refraction tomography and S-wave-type and Fϕ-mode guided waves

Surface ruptures from the 18 April 1906 M∼7.9 San Francisco earthquake were distributed over an ∼35 ‐meter‐wide zone at San Andreas Lake on the San Francisco Peninsula in California ( Schussler, 1906 ). Since ∼1906⁠ , the surface ruptures have been largely covered by water, but with water levels at near‐historic low levels in 2008–2011, we observed that the 1906 surface ruptures were no longer visible. As a fault imaging test, we acquired refraction tomography and guided‐wave data across the 1906 surface ruptures in 2011. We found that individual fault traces, as mapped by Schussler (1906) , can be identified on the basis of discrete low‐velocity zones ( ⁠V S and V P⁠ , reduced ∼40% and ∼34%⁠ , respectively) and high‐amplitude guided waves. Guided waves have traditionally been observed as large‐amplitude waveforms over wide (hundreds of meters to kilometers) zones of faulting, but we demonstrate that by evaluating guided waves (including Rayleigh/Love‐ and P / SV ‐types) in terms of peak ground velocity (PGV), individual near‐surface fault traces within a fault zone can be precisely located, even more than 100 yr after the surface ruptures. Such precise exploration can be used to focus paleoseismic trenching efforts and to identify or exclude faulting at specific sites. We evaluated PGV of both S ‐wave‐type and Fϕ ‐mode‐type guided waves and found that both wave types can be used to identify subsurface fault traces. At San Andreas Lake (main fault), S ‐wave‐type guided waves travel up to 18% slower than S body waves, and Fϕ ‐mode guided waves travel ∼60% slower than P body waves but ∼15% faster than S body waves. We found that guided‐wave amplitudes vary with frequency but are up to five times higher than those of body waves, including the S wave. Our data are consistent with the concept that guided waves can be a strong‐shaking hazard during large‐magnitude earthquakes.

Calfornia↗

Seismic hazard assessment for areas of volcanic activity in western Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Earthquake swarms caused by volcanic activity, tectonic stresses, or industrial operations (oil and gas production) can pose considerable risk for nearby settlements. As a rule, a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) that is based on time-independent earthquakes does not take into account earthquake swarms because of their statistically time-dependent nature. We describe the technique and application of a scenario-based method for the estimation of seismic hazard from earthquake swarms that may occur in areas of volcanic activity in western Saudi Arabia. The method consists of the generation of a large number of scenario seismic swarms followed by the calculation of ground motion in a site of interest for all earthquakes in all of the swarms. The set of calculated ground-motion values permits the construction and analysis of probability distribution functions for possible ground-motion levels during the hypothetical earthquake swarms. The level of ground motion representing the hazard is selected considering an appropriate value of the probability of exceedance or non-exceedance, depending on the goal of the study. This swarm-scenario-based seismic hazard assessment may provide a valuable supplement to an ordinary PSHA and (or) deterministic seismic hazard assessment that are commonly used for emergency response and post-earthquake recovery management.

Professional Paper↗

Seismic hazard and risk assessment in the intraplate environment: The New Madrid seismic zone of the central United States

Although the causes of large intraplate earthquakes are still not fully understood, they pose certain hazard and risk to societies. Estimating hazard and risk in these regions is difficult because of lack of earthquake records. The New Madrid seismic zone is one such region where large and rare intraplate earthquakes (M = 7.0 or greater) pose significant hazard and risk. Many different definitions of hazard and risk have been used, and the resulting estimates differ dramatically. In this paper, seismic hazard is defined as the natural phenomenon generated by earthquakes, such as ground motion, and is quantified by two parameters: a level of hazard and its occurrence frequency or mean recurrence interval; seismic risk is defined as the probability of occurrence of a specific level of seismic hazard over a certain time and is quantified by three parameters: probability, a level of hazard, and exposure time. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), a commonly used method for estimating seismic hazard and risk, derives a relationship between a ground motion parameter and its return period (hazard curve). The return period is not an independent temporal parameter but a mathematical extrapolation of the recurrence interval of earthquakes and the uncertainty of ground motion. Therefore, it is difficult to understand and use PSHA. A new method is proposed and applied here for estimating seismic hazard in the New Madrid seismic zone. This method provides hazard estimates that are consistent with the state of our knowledge and can be easily applied to other intraplate regions. ?? 2007 The Geological Society of America.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗

The 2014 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model in California

The 2014 update to the U. S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model in California introduces a new earthquake rate model and new ground motion models (GMMs) that give rise to numerous changes to seismic hazard throughout the state. The updated earthquake rate model is the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), wherein the rates of all ruptures are determined via a self-consistent inverse methodology. This approach accommodates multifault ruptures and reduces the overprediction of moderate earthquake rates exhibited by the previous model (UCERF2). UCERF3 introduces new faults, changes to slip or moment rates on existing faults, and adaptively smoothed gridded seismicity source models, all of which contribute to significant changes in hazard. New GMMs increase ground motion near large strike-slip faults and reduce hazard over dip-slip faults. The addition of very large strike-slip ruptures and decreased reverse fault rupture rates in UCERF3 further enhances these effects.

California↗

Hydromechanical earthquake nucleation model forecasts onset, peak, and falling rates of induced seismicity in Oklahoma and Kansas

The earthquake activity in Oklahoma and Kansas that began in 2008 reflects the most widespread instance of induced seismicity observed to date. We develop a reservoir model to calculate the hydrologic conditions associated with the activity of 902 saltwater disposal wells injecting into the Arbuckle aquifer. Estimates of basement fault stressing conditions inform a rate‐and‐state friction earthquake nucleation model to forecast the seismic response to injection. Our model replicates many salient features of the induced earthquake sequence, including the onset of seismicity, the timing of the peak seismicity rate, and the reduction in seismicity following decreased disposal activity. We present evidence for variable time lags between changes in injection and seismicity rates, consistent with the prediction from rate‐and‐state theory that seismicity rate transients occur over timescales inversely proportional to stressing rate. Given the efficacy of the hydromechanical model, as confirmed through a likelihood statistical test, the results of this study support broader integration of earthquake physics within seismic hazard analysis.

Oklahoma, Kansas↗

Strain partitioning in southeastern Alaska: Is the Chatham Strait Fault active?

A 1200 km-long transform plate boundary passes through southeastern Alaska and northwestern British Columbia and represents one of the most seismically active, but poorly understood continental margins of North America. Although most of the plate motion is accommodated by the right-lateral Queen Charlotte–Fairweather Fault (QCFF) System, which has produced at least six M > 7 earthquakes since 1920, seismic hazard ass essments also include the Chatham Strait Fault (CSF) as a potentially active, 400 km-long strike slip fault that cuts northward through southeastern Alaska, connecting with the Eastern Denali Fault. Nearly the entire length of the CSF is submerged beneath Chatham Strait and Lynn Canal and has never been systematically imaged using high-resolution marine geophysical approaches. In this study we present an integrated analysis of new marine seismic reflectiondata ac quired across Lynn Canal and tectonic block modeling constrained by data from continuous and campaign GPS sites. Seismic profiles cross the CSF at twelve locations spanning ∼50 km of fault length; they reveal thick (up to 300 m) packages of glaciomarine sedimentary facies emplaced on an unconformity su rface that formed during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Localized warping of post-LGM stratigraphy (∼13.9 kyr B.P. to present) appears to correlate with sediment drape on basement topography and current-controlled deposition. There is no evidence for an active fault along the axis of Lynn Canal in the seismic reflection data. Crustal block models constrained by GPS data allow, but do not require, a maximum slip rate o f 2–3 mm/yr along the CSF; higher slip rates on the CSF result in significant misfit to GPS data in the surrounding region. Based on the combined marine geophysical and GPS observations, it is plausible that the CSF has not generated resolvable coseismic deformation in the last ∼13 ka and that the modern slip-rate is <1 mm/yr. We propose that models for strain transfer between the QCFF and the Denali Fault, and seismic hazard maps in general, may need to be reevaluated.

Alaska↗

National population exposure and evacuation potential in the United States to earthquake-generated tsunami threats

Previous efforts to characterize tsunami threats to people have focused primarily on individual scenarios in specific areas but have not recognized multiple scenarios across an entire country. This study addresses this gap by quantifying population exposure and evacuation potential in the United States to 102 earthquake-related, tsunami-hazard zones, including 92 local scenarios, 8 distant scenarios, and 2 probabilistic products. Geospatial path-distance modeling quantified evacuation potential and the influence of departure delays. We focused on residents to support other national, multi-hazard risk analyses. Millions of residents are in distant-tsunami zones, and hundreds of thousands of residents are in local-tsunami zones. In 41 scenarios, there is at least one resident that may have insufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival. Tens of thousands of residents may have insufficient time to evacuate from local tsunamis that impact the U.S. Pacific Northwest or Puerto Rican coastlines. The largest improvements in evacuation potential may come from reducing departure delays in some areas but may involve vertical-evacuation structures or changing land use in other areas.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

Multi-interferogram method for measuring interseismic deformation: Denali Fault, Alaska

Studies of interseismic strain accumulation are crucial to our understanding of continental deformation, the earthquake cycle and seismic hazard. By mapping small amounts of ground deformation over large spatial areas, InSAR has the potential to produce continental-scale maps of strain accumulation on active faults. However, most InSAR studies to date have focused on areas where the coherence is relatively good (e.g. California, Tibet and Turkey) and most analysis techniques (stacking, small baseline subset algorithm, permanent scatterers, etc.) only include information from pixels which are coherent throughout the time-span of the study. In some areas, such as Alaska, where the deformation rate is small and coherence very variable, it is necessary to include information from pixels which are coherent in some but not all interferograms. We use a three-stage iterative algorithm based on distributed scatterer interferometry. We validate our method using synthetic data created using realistic parameters from a test site on the Denali Fault, Alaska, and present a preliminary result of 10.5 ?? 5.0 mm yr-1 for the slip rate on the Denali Fault based on a single track of radar data from ERS1/2. ?? 2007 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2007 RAS.

Alaska↗

The Peters Hills basin, a Neogene wedge-top basin on the Broad Pass thrust fault, south-central Alaska

The Neogene Peters Hills basin is a small terrestrial basin that formed along the south flank of the Alaska Range during a time in which there was regional shortening. The formation of the Peters Hills basin is consistent with it being a wedge-top basin that formed on top of the active southeast-vergent Broad Pass thrust fault. Movement along this thrust raised a ridge of Jurassic and Cretaceous metasedimentary rocks, which then trapped behind it Miocene and Pliocene sediments that were derived from the growing Alaska Range. The presence of this thrust fault is consistent with regional structural, stratigraphic, seismicity, gravity, and aeromagnetic data. The Peters Hills basin is no longer a depocenter, but if the Broad Pass thrust remains active, it would help explain the westward decrease in Quaternary slip rate along the Denali fault system, and it may constitute a seismic hazard that could produce earthquakes in the M w 7.6–7.8 range.

Alaska↗

Seismic or hydrodynamic control of rapid late-Holocene sea-level rises in southern coastal Oregon, USA?

Intertidal stratigraphy has been instrumental in demonstrating the hazard posed by great earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone, but inferring an earthquake history from interbedded sequences of peat and mud is complicated by many factors that influence sedimentation and relative sea-level change on both tectonic and nontectonic coasts. Rapid-to-sudden rises in relative sea level marked by sharp contacts between intertidal peat and overlying mud or sand may reflect coseismic coastal subsidence and tsunami deposition or, alternatively, nonseismic hydrodynamic changes in estuaries. Reconnaissance coring at 16 sites in the marshes fringing a narrow, protected tidal inlet of Coos Bay, supplemented by diatom and 14 C analyses at four sites, reveals a stratigraphic record too fragmentary and ambiguous to distinguish seismic from hydrodynamic causes for more than three of the 10 rises in relative sea-level identified. Only three sharp contacts have the wide extent and evidence of substantial (>0.5 m) submergence that distinguish them from similar contacts produced by nonseismic processes. Correlation with stratigraphic sequences at other estuaries shows that the fringing marshes suddenly subsided and were partially buried by tsunami sand during a great plate-boundary earthquake about 300 years ago. Similar contacts were produced by earthquakes about 1500–1800 years ago, and perhaps about 2400–2700 years ago. Other earthquakes with substantially less subsidence may also have occurred, but evidence is too ambiguous to reconstruct a more complete history.

Holocene↗