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USGS2018

Novel landscape elements within natural gas fields increase densities but not fitness of an important songbird nest predator

Identifying the elements within human-altered landscapes most associated with population and community changes is critical for conservation and management of sensitive species. We investigated which features of habitat change from natural gas development best explained the density of deer mice ( Peromyscus maniculatus ), an important nest predator of declining sagebrush-obligate songbirds. During 2014–2016, we quantified the spatial extent of habitat change (well pads, roads, and reclaimed areas [i.e., reseeded soils]) surrounding 12 sites spanning two natural gas fields in Wyoming, USA. We further tested whether the altered plant communities within reclaimed areas provided benefits to deer mice, by assessing multiple fitness indices. Deer mouse density increased with surrounding reclaimed area. Powder tracking and dietary analyses confirmed that mice moved through and consumed plant species found exclusively within reclaimed areas. Concomitant fitness metrics of mice, however, were neutrally or negatively related to the amount of surrounding reclaimed area. Mice therefore did not derive any apparent fitness benefits associated with living near reclaimed areas, despite the presence of novel food resources, indicating that increased abundance may be a product of mice dispersing toward reseeded soils. Our study contributes mechanistic insights into the complexities of how human-induced changes to landscapes can influence community dynamics. Minimizing total habitat disturbed during construction, expediting reclamation practices, and using only native and regionally-local seed mixes would likely help minimize increases in synanthropic rodent predators within energy fields. More efficient restoration of disturbed habitat, moreover, may help ameliorate altered predator-prey relationships that affect the success of sensitive species.

Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Modeled production, oxidation, and transport processes of wetland methane emissions in temperate, boreal, and Arctic regions

Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH 4 ) to the atmosphere. The eddy covariance method provides robust measurements of net ecosystem exchange of CH 4 , but interpreting its spatiotemporal variations is challenging due to the co-occurrence of CH 4 production, oxidation, and transport dynamics. Here, we estimate these three processes using a data-model fusion approach across 25 wetlands in temperate, boreal, and Arctic regions. Our data-constrained model—iPEACE—reasonably reproduced CH 4 emissions at 19 of the 25 sites with normalized root mean square error of 0.59, correlation coefficient of 0.82, and normalized standard deviation of 0.87. Among the three processes, CH 4 production appeared to be the most important process, followed by oxidation in explaining inter-site variations in CH 4 emissions. Based on a sensitivity analysis, CH 4 emissions were generally more sensitive to decreased water table than to increased gross primary productivity or soil temperature. For periods with leaf area index (LAI) of ≥20% of its annual peak, plant-mediated transport appeared to be the major pathway for CH 4 transport. Contributions from ebullition and diffusion were relatively high during low LAI (<20%) periods. The lag time between CH 4 production and CH 4 emissions tended to be short in fen sites (3 ± 2 days) and long in bog sites (13 ± 10 days). Based on a principal component analysis, we found that parameters for CH 4 production, plant-mediated transport, and diffusion through water explained 77% of the variance in the parameters across the 19 sites, highlighting the importance of these parameters for predicting wetland CH 4 emissions across biomes. These processes and associated parameters for CH 4 emissions among and within the wetlands provide useful insights for interpreting observed net CH 4 fluxes, estimating sensitivities to biophysical variables, and modeling global CH 4 fluxes.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2005

Regeneration of native trees in the presence of invasive saltcedar in the Colorado River Delta, Mexico

Many riparian zones in the Sonoran Desert have been altered by elimination of the normal flood regime; such changes to the flow regime have contributed to the spread of saltcedar (Tamarix ramosissma Ledeb.), an exotic, salt-tolerant shrub. It has been proposed that reestablishment of a natural flow regime on these rivers might permit passive restoration of native trees, without the need for aggressive saltcedar clearing programs. We tested this proposition in the Colorado River delta in Mexico, which has received a series of large-volume water releases from U.S. dams over the past 20 years. We mapped the vegetation of the delta riparian corridor through ground and aerial surveys (1999–2002) and satellite imagery (1992–2002) and related vegetation changes to river flood flows and fire events. Although saltcedar is still the dominant plant in the delta, native cottonwood ( Populus fremontii S. Wats.) and willow (Salix gooddingii C. Ball) trees have regenerated multiple times because of frequent flood releases from U.S. dams since 1981. Tree populations are young and dynamic (ages 5–10 years). The primary cause of tree mortality between floods is fire. Biomass in the floodplain, as measured by the normalized difference vegetation index on satellite images, responds positively even to low-volume (but long-duration) flood events. Our results support the hypothesis that restoration of a pulse flood regime will regenerate native riparian vegetation despite the presence of a dominant invasive species, but fire management will be necessary to allow mature tree stands to develop.

Colorado River Delta↗

USGS2018

Variation in plant defense suppresses herbivore performance

Defensive variability of crops and natural systems can alter herbivore communities and reduce herbivory . However, it is still unknown how defense variability translates into herbivore suppression. Nonlinear averaging and constraints in physiological tracking (also more generally called time-dependent effects) are the two mechanisms by which defense variability might impact herbivores . We conducted a set of experiments manipulating the mean and variability of a plant defense, showing that defense variability does suppress herbivore performance and that it does so through physiological tracking effects that cannot be explained by nonlinear averaging. While nonlinear averaging predicted higher or the same herbivore performance on a variable defense than on an invariable defense, we show that variability actually decreased herbivore performance and population growth rate. Defense variability reduces herbivore performance in a way that is more than the average of its parts. This is consistent with constraints in physiological matching of detoxification systems for herbivores experiencing variable toxin levels in their diet and represents a more generalizable way of understanding the impacts of variability on herbivory . Increasing defense variability in croplands at a scale encountered by individual herbivores can suppress herbivory, even if that is not anticipated by nonlinear averaging.

Current Biology↗

USGS2014

Trends in conservation research and management in Hawai‘i over the past 20 years

Hawaiʻi, an archipelago of the most isolated inhabited islands on the planet, faces unique and extreme challenges to its biodiversity. We examined how the conservation community has responded to these challenges and how the responses have changed over time, using twenty years of abstracts from the Hawaiʻi Conservation Conference, a yearly gathering of the majority of scientists, managers and the public in Hawaiʻi. Of the 2145 abstracts considered, 60% percent reported research results; 40.0% reported information on conservation and resource management programmes and institutions (i.e., non-research abstracts). Initially, applied research abstracts predominated, but in recent years the number of basic research abstracts has become similar. Across taxonomic groups, terrestrial plants, mammals and birds were the dominant research subjects, fish, algae and fungi were noticeably less studied relative to their diversity in Hawaiʻi. Bird and fish species studied were mostly native; research on most other taxa was evenly divided between native and non-native species. Topics have oscillated in frequency over the years, but there have been no dramatic trends, with the exception of climate change and Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK). Although there is an increasing trend in LEK and cross-disciplinary studies, the number of related abstracts have remained uncommon through the period, accounting for less than 5.0% of total research abstracts analyzed. Our results offer an oportunity for the conservation community to take a closer look at reported effort to better address key conservation questions for Hawaiʻi.

Hawaiʻi↗

USGS1996

South Florida wetlands ecosystem; biogeochemical processes in peat

The South Florida wetlands ecosystem is an environment of great size and ecological diversity (figs. 1 and 2). The landscape diversity and subtropical setting of this ecosystem provide a habitat for an abundance of plants and wildlife, some of which are unique to South Florida. South Florida wetlands are currently in crisis, however, due to the combined effects of agriculture, urbanization, and nearly 100 years of water management. Serious problems facing this ecosystem include (1) phosphorus contamination producing nutrient enrichment, which is causing changes in the native vegetation, (2) methylmercury contamination of fish and other wildlife, which poses a potential threat to human health, (3) changes in the natural flow of water in the region, resulting in more frequent drying of wetlands, loss of organic soils, and a reduction in freshwater flow to Florida Bay, (4) hypersalinity, massive algal blooms, and seagrass loss in parts of Florida Bay, and (5) a decrease in wildlife populations, especially those of wading birds. This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) project focuses on the role of organic-rich sediments (peat) of South Florida wetlands in regulating the concentrations and impact of important chemical species in the environment. The cycling of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur in peat is an important factor in the regulation of water quality in the South Florida wetlands ecosystem. These elements are central to many of the contamination issues facing South Florida wetlands, such as nutrient enrichment, mercury toxicity, and loss of peat. Many important chemical and biological reactions occur in peat and control the fate of chemical species in wetlands. Wetland scientists often refer to these reactions as biogeochemical processes, because they are chemical reactions usually mediated by microorganisms in a geological environment. An understanding of the biogeochemical processes in peat of South Florida wetlands will provide a basis for evaluating the effects on water quality of (1) constructing buffer wetlands to alleviate nutrient contamination and (2) replumbing the ecosystem to restore natural water flow. The results may also suggest new approaches for solving problems of contamination and water quality in these wetlands. A second focus of this project will be on the geochemical history of the South Florida ecosystem. Peat is a repository of the history of past environmental conditions in the wetland. Before effective action can be taken to correct many of the problems facing these wetlands, we must first study the biogeochemistry of the peat at depth in order to understand whether current problems are the result of recent human activity or are part of a long-term natural cycle. Coordination with other (USGS) projects for South Florida is ongoing. These projects are studying the biological history of the ecosystem by using pollen and shells buried in the peat, together with procedures for dating the peat at various depths, to develop an overall ecosystem history model, with emphasis on the last 100 years.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS1999

Long-term consequences of disturbance on nitrogen dynamics in an arid ecosystem

Anthropogenic activity is causing dramatic changes in the nitrogen (N) cycle in many ecosystems. Most research has focused on the increase in N input caused by atmospheric deposition and invasion of N-fixing species, and on their effects on resource availability and species composition. However, in contrast to many ecosystems experiencing large increases in N input, many arid ecosystems are experiencing loss of nutrients due to land-use change. An important component of many arid ecosystems on a worldwide basis is the microbiotic crust, a biological soil crust composed of lichens, cyanobacteria, mosses, and algae. Nitrogen fixation by lichens and cyanobacteria comprising the crust is the primary source of N input in many of these ecosystems. We quantified the long-term consequences of surface disturbance in an arid ecosystem on the Colorado Plateau by comparing pristine sites with those of known disturbance history. Disturbance caused an increase in the abundance of cyanobacteria and a decrease in lichens within the microbiotic crust. Carbon isotope composition (δ 13 C) of the crust reflects this shift in species composition; values for disturbed sites were 4.5‰ higher than undisturbed sites. Nitrogen isotope composition (δ 15 N) of the microbiotic crust was 1.5–2.2‰ higher for disturbed sites, probably resulting from relatively greater gaseous N loss from the crust. Historic disturbance has caused a long-term decrease in rates of N fixation by the microbiotic crust; nitrogenase activity in pristine sites was 250% greater than sites intermittently disturbed 30 yr ago. The decrease in N input from fixation and continued gaseous N loss has caused a 25–75% decrease in soil N content. Altering relative rates of N input and loss, coupled with input of N from microbiotic crusts with relatively higher δ 15 N, has caused an increase in soil and plant δ 15 N at disturbed sites. This decrease in soil N caused by disturbance will likely cause changes in species composition similar to those observed in ecosystems that have been disrupted by excess N input from atmospheric deposition.

Ecology↗

USGS2002

Avian species richness in different-aged stands of riparian forest along the middle Rio Grande, New Mexico

Riparian forests are important for maintaining vertebrate species richness in the southwestern United States, but they have become restricted in distribution due to both historical and current management practices. In order to counteract continued loss of this habitat, several mitigation programs were developed in the middle Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico. Three areas ranging from 50 to 140 ha were revegetated with native trees using pole planting and cattle exclosures, and changes in vegetation structure were quantified after 2, 3, and 5 years of growth. As expected, the older site contained the most heterogeneous mix of plant species and the greatest structural diversity. We compared year-round avian use of the revegetated sites with a mature cottonwood forest site of approximately 30 years of age. As the revegetated sites matured and salient habitat features changed, the population dynamics of individual avian species and patterns of guild structure varied. The older revegetated sites showed a greater similarity to the mature cottonwood site, suggesting that reclamation efforts established quality riparian habitats for birds in as little as 5 years. The revegetated sites appeared especially important for Neotropical-migrant birds. We suggest that a mosaic of riparian woodlands containing mixtures of native tree and shrub species of different size classes is necessary to maintain avian species richness in the middle Rio Grande drainage, and probably throughout the southwestern United States.

New Mexico↗

USGS2012

Shading decreases the abundance of the herbivorous California horn snail, Cerithidea californica

Most of the intertidal zone in estuaries of California, USA and Baja California, Mexico is covered with vascular vegetation. Shading by these vascular plants influences abiotic and biotic processes that shape benthic community assemblages. We present data on the effects of shading on the California horn snail, Cerithidea californica . This species is important because it is the most common benthic macrofaunal species in these systems and acts as an obligate intermediate host of several species of rematode parasites that infect several other species. Using observational and experimental studies, we found a negative effect of shade on the distribution and abundance of the California horn snail. We hypothesized that shading reduces the abundance of the epipelic diatoms that the snails feeds on, causing snails to leave haded areas. We observed a negative relationship between vascular plant cover, sub-canopy light levels, and snail density in Mugu Lagoon. Then we experimentally manipulated light regimes, by clipping vegetation and adding shade structures, and found higher snail densities at higher light levels. In Goleta Slough, we isolated the effect of shade from vegetation by documenting a negative relationship between the shade created by two bridges and diatom and snail densities. We also found that snails moved the greatest distances over shaded channel banks compared to unshaded channel banks. Further, we documented the effect of water depth and channel bank orientation on shading in this system. An additional effect of shading is the reduction of temperature, providing an alternative explanation for some of our results. These results broaden our knowledge of how variation in the light environment influences the ecology of estuarine ecosystems.

California↗

USGS2024

Recent increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme methane fluxes driven by changes in climate and vegetation in boreal and temperate wetland ecosystems

Climate warming is expected to increase global methane (CH 4 ) emissions from wetland ecosystems. Although in situ eddy covariance (EC) measurements at ecosystem scales can potentially detect CH 4 flux changes, most EC systems have only a few years of data collected, so temporal trends in CH 4 remain uncertain. Here, we use established drivers to hindcast changes in CH 4 fluxes (FCH 4 ) since the early 1980s. We trained a machine learning (ML) model on CH 4 flux measurements from 22 [methane-producing sites] in wetland, upland, and lake sites of the FLUXNET-CH 4 database with at least two full years of measurements across temperate and boreal biomes. The gradient boosting decision tree ML model then hindcasted daily FCH 4 over 1981–2018 using meteorological reanalysis data. We found that, mainly driven by rising temperature, half of the sites ( n = 11) showed significant increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme FCH 4 , with increases in FCH 4 of ca. 10% or higher found in the fall from 1981–1989 to 2010–2018. The annual trends were driven by increases during summer and fall, particularly at high-CH 4 -emitting fen sites dominated by aerenchymatous plants. We also found that the distribution of days of extremely high FCH 4 (defined according to the 95th percentile of the daily FCH 4 values over a reference period) have become more frequent during the last four decades and currently account for 10–40% of the total seasonal fluxes. The share of extreme FCH 4 days in the total seasonal fluxes was greatest in winter for boreal/taiga sites and in spring for temperate sites, which highlights the increasing importance of the non-growing seasons in annual budgets. Our results shed light on the effects of climate warming on wetlands, which appears to be extending the CH 4 emission seasons and boosting extreme emissions.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2022

New-generation pesticides are prevalent in California's Central Coast streams

Pesticides are widely recognized as important biological stressors in streams, especially in heavily developed urban and agricultural areas like the Central California Coast region. We assessed occurrence and potential toxicity of pesticides in small streams in the region using two analytical methods: a broad-spectrum (223 compounds) method in use since 2012 and a newly developed method for 30 additional new-generation fungicides and insecticides. At least one pesticide compound was identified in 83 of the 85 streams sampled. About one-half (48%) of the 253 pesticides measured were detected at least once and 27 were detected in 10% or more of samples. Three of the top 4, and 6 of the top 10 most frequently detected compounds (chlorantraniliprole, dinotefuran, boscalid, thiamethoxam, clothianidin and the fluopicolide degradate 2,6-dichlorobenzamide) were analyzed by the new method. Pesticide mixtures were common, with two or more pesticide compounds detected in 81% of samples and 10 or more in 32% of samples. The pesticide count at a site was relatively consistent over the 6-week study. Four sites with mixed land-use in the lower basin (<5 km from the sampling site) tended to have the highest pesticide counts and the highest concentrations. Potential toxicity (assessed by comparison to benchmarks) to invertebrates was much more common than potential toxicity to fish or plants and was associated with a wide array of insecticides. The common occurrence of new-generation pesticides highlights the need to continuously update analytical methods to keep pace with changing pesticide use for a fuller assessment of pesticide occurrence and effects on the environment.

California↗

USGS2014

Organizing phenological data resources to inform natural resource conservation

Changes in the timing of plant and animal life cycle events, in response to climate change, are already happening across the globe. The impacts of these changes may affect biodiversity via disruption to mutualisms, trophic mismatches, invasions and population declines. To understand the nature, causes and consequences of changed, varied or static phenologies, new data resources and tools are being developed across the globe. The USA National Phenology Network is developing a long-term, multi-taxa phenological database, together with a customizable infrastructure, to support conservation and management needs. We present current and potential applications of the infrastructure, across scales and user groups. The approaches described here are congruent with recent trends towards multi-agency, large-scale research and action.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2013

Microbial community responses to 17 years of altered precipitation are seasonally dependent and coupled to co-varying effects of water content on vegetation and soil C

Precipitation amount and seasonal timing determine the duration and distribution of water available for plant and microbial activity in the cold desert sagebrush steppe. In this study, we sought to determine if a sustained shift in the amount and timing of precipitation would affect soil microbial diversity, community composition, and soil carbon (C) storage. Field plots were irrigated (+200 mm) during the dormant or growing-season for 17 years. Microbial community responses were assessed over the course of a year at two depths (15–20 cm, 95–100 cm) by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP), along with co-occurring changes in plant cover and edaphic properties. Bacterial richness, Shannon Weaver diversity, and composition in shallow soils (15–20 cm) as well as evenness in deep soils (95–100 cm) differed across irrigation treatments during July. Irrigation timing affected fungal community diversity and community composition during the dormant season and most strongly in deep soils (95–100 cm). Dormant-season irrigation increased the ratio of shrubs to forbs and reduced soil C in shallow soils by 16% relative to ambient conditions. It is unclear whether or not soil C will continue to decline with continued treatment application or if microbial adaptation could mitigate sustained soil C losses. Future changes in precipitation timing will affect soil microbes in a seasonally dependent manner and be coupled to co-varying effects of water content on vegetation and soil C.

Soil Biology and Biochemistry↗

USGS2021

Tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America: The northward range expansion of tropical organisms in response to warming winter temperatures

Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward‐moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold‐sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical–temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape‐scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical–temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change‐induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS1990

Identification of isopropylbiphenyl, alkyl diphenylmethanes, diisopropylnaphthalene, linear alkyl benzenes and other polychlorinated biphenyl replacement compounds in effluents, sediments and fish in the Fox River System, Wisconsin

Five polychlorinated biphenyl replacement dye solvents and a diluent present in carbonless copy paper were identified by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry in the following matrices: effluents from a de-inking–recycling paper mill and a municipal wastewater treatment plant receiving wastewaters from a carbonless copy paper manufacturing plant; sediments; and fish collected near both discharges in the Fox River System, Wisconsin. An isopropylbiphenyl dye solvent mixture included mono-, di- and triisopropylbiphenyls. Also identified were two dye solvent mixtures marketed under the trade name Santosol. Santosol 100 comprised ethyl-diphenylmethanes (DPMs), benzyl-ethyl-DPMs, and dibenzyl-ethyl-DPMs. Similarly, Santosol 150 comprised dimethyl-DPMs, benzyl-dimethyl-DPMs, and dibenzyl-dimethyl-DPMs. Diisopropylnaphthalenes, widely used as a dye solvent in Japan, were identified for the first time in the US environment. sec -Butylbiphenyls and di- sec -butylbiphenyls, likely constituents of a sec -butylbiphenyl dye solvent mixture, were tentatively identified. Linear alkyl benzenes (C 10 to C 13 -LABs) constituted the Alkylate 215 diluent mixture. Although known to occur as minor constituents in linear alkyl sulfonate detergents, LAB residues have not been previously attributed to commercial use of LABs.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2025

Biotic and abiotic drivers of ecosystem temporal stability in herbaceous wetlands in China

Maintaining the stability of ecosystems is critical for supporting essential ecosystem services over time. However, our understanding of the contribution of the diverse biotic and abiotic factors to this stability in wetlands remains limited. Here, we combined data from a field vegetation survey of 725 herbaceous wetland sites in China with remote sensing information from the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 2010 to 2020 to explore the contribution of biotic and abiotic factors to the temporal stability of primary productivity. We found that plant species richness directly contributed to stability on a national scale, but that this contribution differed among climate zones, hydrological regimes, and vegetation types. In addition, many abiotic factors, including soil properties, geographical location, and climate also contributed to stability. Piecewise structural equation modeling identified that soil properties, including soil pH, total nitrogen, and soil organic carbon, emerged as primary factors modulating ecosystem stability, both directly and indirectly by affecting species richness and vegetation type. Higher species richness and soil organic carbon were related to higher ecosystem stability in peatlands but less so in coastal and inland marshes. These findings enhance our ability to forecast how wetland ecosystems may respond to future environmental changes and biodiversity loss and can inform policy decisions related to ecosystem stability.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2006

Evidence for the role of infectious disease in species extinction and endangerment

Infectious disease is listed among the top five causes of global species extinctions. However, the majority of available data supporting this contention is largely anecdotal. We used the IUCN Red List of Threatened and Endangered Species and literature indexed in the ISI Web of Science to assess the role of infectious disease in global species loss. Infectious disease was listed as a contributing factor in <4% of species extinctions known to have occurred since 1500 (833 plants and animals) and as contributing to a species' status as critically endangered in <8% of cases (2852 critically endangered plants and animals). Although infectious diseases appear to play a minor role in global species loss, our findings underscore two important limitations in the available evidence: uncertainty surrounding the threats to species survival and a temporal bias in the data. Several initiatives could help overcome these obstacles, including rigorous scientific tests to determine which infectious diseases present a significant threat at the species level, recognition of the limitations associated with the lack of baseline data for the role of infectious disease in species extinctions, combining data with theory to discern the circumstances under which infectious disease is most likely to serve as an agent of extinction, and improving surveillance programs for the detection of infectious disease. An evidence-based understanding of the role of infectious disease in species extinction and endangerment will help prioritize conservation initiatives and protect global biodiversity.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2013

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

Conservation Biology↗