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USGS2019

Hydrologic resilience from summertime fog and recharge: A case study for coho salmon recovery planning

Fog and low cloud cover (FLCC) and late summer recharge increase stream baseflow and decrease stream temperature during arid Mediterranean climate summers, which benefits salmon especially under climate warming conditions. The potential to discharge cool water to streams during the late summer (hydrologic capacity; HC) furnished by FLCC and recharge were mapped for the 299 subwatersheds ranked Core, Phase 1, or Phase 2 under the National Marine Fisheries Service Recovery Plan that prioritized restoration and threat abatement action for endangered Central California Coast Coho Salmon evolutionarily significant unit. Two spatially continuous gridded datasets were merged to compare HC: average hrs/day FLCC, a new dataset derived from a decade of hourly National Weather Satellite data, and annual average mm recharge from the USGS Basin Characterization Model. Two use‐case scenarios provide examples of incorporating FLCC‐driven HC indices into long‐term recovery planning. The first, a thermal analysis under future climate, projected 65% of the watershed area for 8–19 coho population units as thermally inhospitable under two global climate models and identified several units with high resilience (high HC under the range of projected warming conditions). The second use case investigated HC by subwatershed rank and coho population, and identified three population units with high HC in areas ranked Phase 1 and 2 and low HC in Core. Recovery planning for cold‐water fish species would benefit by including FLCC in vulnerability analyses.

California↗

USGS2023

Vegetation change over 140 years in a sagebrush landscape of the Rio Grande del Norte National Monument, New Mexico, USA

Questions Big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) ecosystems across the western United States have experienced many changes in ecosystem dynamics and vegetation composition over the last century due to livestock grazing, non-native species, and changing climate and fire regimes. We conducted the first systematic investigation of historical vegetation composition and vegetation change in a sagebrush landscape in the southwestern United States, asking whether sagebrush or grass dominated the landscape historically? Location The Rio Grande del Norte National Monument (RGDN), northern New Mexico, USA. Methods We combined General Land Office (GLO) surveys from 1881 with modern vegetation maps, field vegetation surveys, and sagebrush ages from growth ring analysis to test for changes in vegetation in the RGDN over the last 140 years. Results We found that big sagebrush presence across the study area increased significantly, from being present on 16% of section lines in 1881 to 79% in 2019, and only three section lines lost sagebrush presence during that period. Concurrently, the number of section lines with low grass index more than doubled since 1881, while moderate and high grass index declined. Grass declined equally in areas where sagebrush increased and areas with no change in sagebrush, suggesting that changes in both vegetation types were catalyzed by external factors, likely including overgrazing. The growth ring analysis of 93 sagebrush revealed a maximum age of 87 years and establishment in every decade since the 1930s, consistent with the GLO results. Conclusions The significant vegetation changes in the RGDN over the last century, including an increase of sagebrush, provide important context about the shifting mosaic of grasslands and shrublands relevant to current and future management and ecosystem dynamics.

New Mexico↗

USGS1976

Improving estimates of streamflow characteristics by using Landsat-1 imagery

Imagery from the first Earth Resources Technology Satellite (renamed Landsat-1) was used to discriminate physical features of drainage basins in an effort to improve equations used to estimate streamflow characteristics at gaged and ungaged sites. Records of 20 gaged basins in the Delmarva Peninsula of Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia were analyzed for 40 statistical streamflow characteristics. Equations relating these characteristics to basin characteristics were obtained by a technique of multiple linear regression. A control group of equations contains basin characteristics derived from maps. An experimental group of equations contains basin characteristics derived from maps and imagery. Characteristics from imagery were forest, riparian (streambank) vegetation, water, and combined agricultural and urban land use. These basin characteristics were isolated photographically by techniques of film-density discrimination. The area of each characteristic in each basin was measured photometrically. Comparison of equations in the control group with corresponding equations in the experimental group reveals that for 12 out of 40 equations the standard error of estimate was reduced by more than 10 percent. As an example, the standard error of estimate of the equation for the 5-year recurrence-interval flood peak was reduced from 46 to 32 percent. Similarly, the standard error of the equation for the mean monthly flow for September was reduced from 32 to 24 percent, the standard error for the 7-day, 2-year recurrence low flow was reduced from 136 to 102 percent, and the standard error for the 3-day, 2-year flood volume was reduced from 30 to 12 percent. It is concluded that data from Landsat imagery can substantially improve the accuracy of estimates of some streamflow characteristics at sites in the Delmarva Peninsula.

Maryland, Delaware, Virginia↗

USGS2022

Section 5: Remote sensing of vegetation in the riparian corridor of the Colorado River’s delta 2013-2018

This remote sensing section is based on Nagler et al. (in preparation for the journal Hydrological Processes) and is a summary of the USGS preliminary findings to date. This report documents the changes in green foliage density (greenness) as measured by satellite vegetation index (VI) data and corresponding evapotranspiration (ET) in the riparian corridor of the Colorado River delta associated with the Minutes 319 and 323 environmental water deliveries using time-series data from 2013 through 2018. The report focuses on what happened only within the riparian corridor’s seven reaches since the 2014 flows, and despite being a continuation of measuring greenness and ET after the 2017 end of Minute 319, this study continued the tracking of these two variables, greenness and ET, in these original riparian corridor focal areas. Two spatial scales are used here: (1) Landsat satellite imagery at 30 m pixels and (2) the EOS-1 satellite sensor the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) with a resolution of 250 m pixels. The focal period includes 2013 (prepulse flow) and the years 2014-2018, with a focus on imagery collected from the Summer growing seasons 2014 through 2018 (one-year, pre-pulse and several post-pulse years, respectively). This report re-creates the 2013-2017 Landsat-based results from Jarchow et al. (2017a, b) by using the same region of interest (ROI). The report now provides revised and re-created results using all new imagery acquisition and processing techniques, as well as extraction code, created by the Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) Lab of the Biosystems Engineering Department of the University of Arizona (UofA). In 2018, methods employed by the VIP lab (and not ArcGIS) were used. ArcGIS was only used in the newly processed data to display the final difference maps. The entire spatial tile data from NASA was downloaded and processed at the VIP Lab using satellite imagery at two resolutions: 250 m MODIS and 30 m Landsat using three sensors, Landsat 5, Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), with added scenes for each year based on new clear atmosphere requirements. The VIP lab clipped the river boundary and seven riparian reaches from the previously existing ROI used in Jarchow et al. (2017 a, b) for the analyses done under Minute 319. The NASA image datasets for this riparian corridor ROI in seven reaches were re-processed to produce additional vegetation index (VI) information for years 2013 to 2018 for this report. At the same time, the report acquired and processed imagery from 2000- 2018 (data outside the scope of this report and data not shown here). The additional VIs (NDVI, scaled NDVI, EVI, EVI2) were analyzed so that new assessments of greenness and ET could be produced from the imagery datasets following methods in Nagler et al. (2013). These VI choices were based on previous performance comparisons between biophysical ground-based data and radiometric satellite-based data collected from this riparian ecosystem (Nagler et al., 2001) as well as performance related to ET estimation (Nagler et al., 2005a, b) and current advancements in VIs such as EVI2.

Colorado River Delta↗

USGS2005

Influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of a Sonoran Desert platyopuntia

Age-based population dynamics of Opuntia engelmannii, a shrubby cactus with flattened cladodes, were investigated at a Sonoran Desert site protected from grazing since 1907. Demographic statistics were determined from births and deaths on six permanent vegetation plots mapped four times between 1968 and 2001. Moderate longevity (13-56 years) and modest per capita annual survival (0.9298) were associated with fairly rapid turnover; cycles of population growth and decline were thus evident over relatively short periods. Age-frequency distribution, determined for subpopulations in two neighboring habitats in 1996 and 2003, was used to calculate residual regeneration, an index of the difference between observed cohort size and idealized survivorship. Establishment peaks occurred in the late 1970s, the mid-1980s, and the early to mid-1990s and coincided with increased winter moisture in the years before germination, ample summer rain in the year of germination, and decreased drought in the years after germination, reflecting favorable conditions for fruit production, seed germination, and seedling survival. Regionally, pulses and gaps in establishment coincide with the frequency and amplitude of large-scale climatic phenomena that affect cycles of moisture and drought on decadal and interdecadal scales. Because of local factors, however, subpopulations within a few km of one another can experience virtually identical climates yet differ strikingly in age structure and density. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

USGS2024

Improving crop-specific groundwater use estimation in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain: Implications for integrated remote sensing and machine learning approaches in data-scarce regions

Study region The Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) in the United States (US). Study focus Understanding local-scale groundwater use, a critical component of the water budget, is necessary for implementing sustainable water management practices. The MAP is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the US and extracts more than 11 km 3 /year for irrigation activities. Consequently, groundwater-level declines in the MAP region pose a substantial challenge to water sustainability, and hence, we need reliable groundwater pumping monitoring solutions to manage this resource appropriately. New hydrological insights for the region We incorporate remote sensing datasets and machine learning to improve an existing lookup table-based model of groundwater use previously developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Here, we employ Distributed Random Forests, an ensemble machine learning algorithm to predict annual and monthly groundwater use (2014–2020) throughout this region at 1-km resolution, using pumping data from existing flowmeters in the Mississippi Delta. Our model compares favorably with the existing USGS model, with higher R 2 (0.51 compared to 0.42 in the previous model), and lower root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE)— 0.14 m and 0.09 m, respectively in our model, compared to 0.15 m and 0.1 m in the previous model. Therefore, this work advances our ability to predict groundwater use in regions with scarce or limited in-situ groundwater withdrawal data availability.

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies↗

USGS2012

Seismicity and shear strain in the southern Great Basin of Nevada and California

This study examines the relationship between the distribution of small earthquakes (M L ≤4.3) and mechanisms of strain accumulation and relaxation in an area with long repeat times between large events, the Southern Great Basin Seismic Network (SGBSN) region. The Great Basin is a unique continental extensional province characterized by normal and strike-slip faulting, high heat flow, crust of thin to normal thickness, and high elevations. The SGBSN is operated to provide data to address suitability issues pertaining to Yucca Mountain, Nevada which is being evaluated as a potential site for a national mined geologic nuclear waste repository. Suitability issues include estimation of the probability of occurrence of future damaging earthquakes, the characterization of the mechanisms that drive hydrologic flow, and the identification of fractures (faults) that might act as flow conduits or barriers. This study attempts to explain the distribution of small earthquakes in terms of spatial variations in the shear strain field; where strain concentrates there should be a greater number of small earthquakes. Strain field models are constructed under the assumption that long term fault behavior perturbs an otherwise uniform strain field. These strain field models are then interpreted with regard to the regional tectonics and site suitability issues. Modeling results provide one possible explanation of why earthquake clusters cover regions much larger than the surface projections of any of mapped major faults; clusters in a wide band along and extending northeast of the northern half of the Furnace Creek fault may correspond to elevated shear strains along the fault and a broad cluster in the Pahranagat Shear Zone may be associated with shear strain arising from a distribution of smaller localized faults. The relatively large number of small earthquakes in the southern and eastern portions of the Nevada Test Site is consistent with the strain field models. A minimum in shear strain at Yucca Mountain is predicted by all models consistent with an almost total lack of earthquakes observed there. The region to the west of the Death Valley/Furnace Creek fault system, the portion of the study area with the most active deformation but few small earthquakes, is an area of low shear strain. A possible reason for this is that the fault configuration in the area is optimal for accommodating regional deformation via large earthquakes or creep. While there is also a relative lack of earthquakes at Yucca Mountain, this may be indicative of a lack of accumulating strain energy and thus, a lower potential for a large earthquake.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2010

Rayleigh-wave phase-velocity maps and three-dimensional shear velocity structure of the western US from local non-plane surface wave tomography

We utilize two-and-three-quarter years of vertical-component recordings made by the Transportable Array (TA) component of Earthscope to constrain three-dimensional (3-D) seismic shear wave velocity structure in the upper 200 km of the western United States. Single-taper spectral estimation is used to compile measurements of complex spectral amplitudes from 44 317 seismograms generated by 123 teleseismic events. In the ﬁrst step employed to determine the Rayleigh-wave phase-velocity structure, we implement a new tomographic method, which is simpler and more robust than scattering-based methods (e.g. multi-plane surface wave tomography). The TA is effectively implemented as a large number of local arrays by deﬁning a horizontal Gaussian smoothing distance that weights observations near a given target point. The complex spectral-amplitude measurements are interpreted with the spherical Helmholtz equation using local observations about a succession of target points, resulting in Rayleigh-wave phase-velocity maps at periods over the range of 18–125 s. The derived maps depend on the form of local ﬁts to the Helmholtz equation, which generally involve the nonplane-wave solutions of Friederich et al. In a second step, the phase-velocity maps are used to derive 3-D shear velocity structure. The 3-D velocity images conﬁrm details witnessed in prior body-wave and surface-wave studies and reveal new structures, including a deep (>100 km deep) high-velocity lineament, of width ∼200 km, stretching from the southern Great Valley to northern Utah that may be a relic of plate subduction or, alternatively, either a remnant of the Mojave Precambrian Province or a mantle downwelling. Mantle seismic velocity is highly correlated with heat ﬂow, Holocene volcanism, elastic plate thickness and seismicity. This suggests that shallow mantle structure provides the heat source for associated magmatism, as well as thinning of the thermal lithosphere, leading to relatively high stress concentration. Our images also conﬁrm the presence of high-velocity mantle at 100 km depth beneath areas of suspected mantle delamination (southern Sierra Nevada; Grande Ronde uplift), low velocity mantle underlying active rift zones, and high velocity mantle associated with the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. Structure established during the Proterozoic appears to exert a lasting inﬂuence on subsequent volcanism and tectonism up to the Present.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2023

Kinematic evolution of a large paraglacial landslide in the Barry Arm fjord of Alaska

Our warming climate is adversely affecting cryospheric landscapes via glacial retreat, permafrost degradation, and associated slope destabilization. In Prince William Sound, Alaska, the rapid retreat of Barry Glacier has destabilized the slopes flanking the glacier, resulting in numerous landslides. The largest of these landslides (∼500 Mm 3 in volume) is more than 2 km wide and has the potential to generate a tsunami that could affect nearby recreationists, marine traffic, infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and the community of Whittier, located 60 km from the landslide. Here, we combine landslide structural and kinematic element mapping with data acquired from bi-yearly airborne lidar, multi-week satellite-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR), sub-hourly ground-based SAR, and seismic monitoring from 2020 to 2022 to characterize this landslide and examine its evolution. While some methods serve as a snapshot in time that is a culmination of events, others emphasize the ever-evolving nature of the landslide and associated hazards. Four major kinematic elements define the overall structure of the landslide, which vary in deformation type and rate, from creep (5 mm per day over several months) to episodic movement (2 m in 30 days) and landslide-wide to localized events. In some areas of the landslide, short-term deformation deviates from structures formed by cumulative movement, implying structural and kinematic evolution associated with glacier retreat. These insights are important for assessing landslide hazards and hazard evolution for large, slow-moving bedrock landslides in actively deglaciating environments.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Testing the accuracy of a 1-D volcanic plume model in estimating mass eruption rate

During volcanic eruptions, empirical relationships are used to estimate mass eruption rate from plume height. Although simple, such relationships can be inaccurate and can underestimate rates in windy conditions. One-dimensional plume models can incorporate atmospheric conditions and give potentially more accurate estimates. Here I present a 1-D model for plumes in crosswind and simulate 25 historical eruptions where plume height H obs was well observed and mass eruption rate M obs could be calculated from mapped deposit mass and observed duration. The simulations considered wind, temperature, and phase changes of water. Atmospheric conditions were obtained from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 2.5° model. Simulations calculate the minimum, maximum, and average values ( M min , M max , and M avg ) that fit the plume height. Eruption rates were also estimated from the empirical formula M empir = 140 H obs 4.14 ( M empir is in kilogram per second, H obs is in kilometer). For these eruptions, the standard error of the residual in log space is about 0.53 for M avg and 0.50 for M empir . Thus, for this data set, the model is slightly less accurate at predicting M obs than the empirical curve. The inability of this model to improve eruption rate estimates may lie in the limited accuracy of even well-observed plume heights, inaccurate model formulation, or the fact that most eruptions examined were not highly influenced by wind. For the low, wind-blown plume of 14–18 April 2010 at Eyjafjallajökull, where an accurate plume height time series is available, modeled rates do agree better with M obs than M empir .

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2000

Channel incision and patterns of cottonwood stress and mortality along the Mojave River, California

In 1995, mapping and classification of riparian vegetation along the Mojave River in southern California revealed an 8-km reach in which riparian cottonwoods ( Populus fremontii Wats.) were stressed or dying. We tested a set of predictions based on the inference that cottonwood decline was an indirect result of lowered water-table levels following flood-related channel incision. Comparisons of topographic cross-sections from 1963 and 1997, indicated a net change in channel elevation between −0·71 and −3·6 m within zones of cottonwood stress and mortality. Ages of young cottonwood and willow stems adjacent to the present channel and radial stem growth of surviving cottonwoods were consistent with the inference that channel incision, associated with sustained flooding in January and February of 1993, lowered channel elevations throughout the affected reach. Well records and soil redoximorphic features indicate that channel incision caused net water-table declines ⩾1·5 m on portions of the adjacent flood plain where cottonwood stand mortality ranged between 58 and 93%. In areas where water-table declines were estimated to be <1·0 m, stand mortality was 7–13%.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

USGS1996

Satellite imagery of the onset of streaming flow of ice streams C and D, West Antarctica

Five overlapping Landsat multispectral scanner satellite images of the interior of the West Antarctic ice sheet were enhanced with principal component analysis, high-pass filtering, and linear contrast stretching and merged into a mosaic by aligning surface features in the overlap areas. The mosaic was registered to geodetic coordinates, to an accuracy of about 1 km, using the five scene centers as control points. The onset of streaming flow of two tributaries of ice stream C and one tributary of ice stream D is visible in the mosaic. The onset appears to occur within a relatively short distance, less than the width of the ice stream, typically at a subglacial topographic feature, such as a step or ridge. The ice streams extend farther up into the interior than previously mapped. Ice stream D starts about 150 km from the ice divide, at an altitude of about 1500 m, approximately halfway up the convex-upward dome shape of the interior ice sheet. Ice stream D is relatively much longer than ice stream C, possibly because ice stream D is currently active, whereas ice stream C is currently inactive. The grounded portion of the West Antarctic ice sheet is perhaps best conceptualized as an ice sheet in which ice streams are embedded over most of its area, with slow-moving ice converging into fast-moving ice streams in a widely distributed pattern, much like that of streams and rivers in a hydrologic basin. A relic margin appears to parallel most of the south margin of the tributary of ice stream D, separated from the active shear margin by about 10 km or less for a distance of over 200 km. This means there is now evidence for recent changes having occurred in three of the five major ice streams which drain most of West Antarctica (B, C, and D), two of which (B and D) are currently active.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2004

Importance of storm events in controlling ecosystem structure and function in a Florida Gulf Coast estuary

From 8/95 to 2/01, we investigated the ecological effects of intra- and inter-annual variability in freshwater flow through Taylor Creek in southeastern Everglades National Park. Continuous monitoring and intensive sampling studies overlapped with an array of pulsed weather events that impacted physical, chemical, and biological attributes of this region. We quantified the effects of three events representing a range of characteristics (duration, amount of precipitation, storm intensity, wind direction) on the hydraulic connectivity, nutrient and sediment dynamics, and vegetation structure of the SE Everglades estuarine ecotone. These events included a strong winter storm in November 1996, Tropical Storm Harvey in September 1999, and Hurricane Irene in October 1999. Continuous hydrologic and daily water sample data were used to examine the effects of these events on the physical forcing and quality of water in Taylor Creek. A high resolution, flow-through sampling and mapping approach was used to characterize water quality in the adjacent bay. To understand the effects of these events on vegetation communities, we measured mangrove litter production and estimated seagrass cover in the bay at monthly intervals. We also quantified sediment deposition associated with Hurricane Irene's flood surge along the Buttonwood Ridge. These three events resulted in dramatic changes in surface water movement and chemistry in Taylor Creek and adjacent regions of Florida Bay as well as increased mangrove litterfall and flood surge scouring of seagrass beds. Up to 5 cm of bay-derived mud was deposited along the ridge adjacent to the creek in this single pulsed event. These short-term events can account for a substantial proportion of the annual flux of freshwater and materials between the mangrove zone and Florida Bay. Our findings shed light on the capacity of these storm events, especially when in succession, to have far reaching and long lasting effects on coastal ecosystems such as the estuarine ecotone of the SE Everglades.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2002

Geodetic imaging: Reservoir monitoring using satellite interferometry

Fluid fluxes within subsurface reservoirs give rise to surface displacements, particularly over periods of a year or more. Observations of such deformation provide a powerful tool for mapping fluid migration within the Earth, providing new insights into reservoir dynamics. In this paper we use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) range changes to infer subsurface fluid volume strain at the Coso geothermal field. Furthermore, we conduct a complete model assessment, using an iterative approach to compute model parameter resolution and covariance matrices. The method is a generalization of a Lanczos-based technique which allows us to include fairly general regularization, such as roughness penalties. We find that we can resolve quite detailed lateral variations in volume strain both within the reservoir depth range (0.4-2.5 km) and below the geothermal production zone (2.5-5.0 km). The fractional volume change in all three layers of the model exceeds the estimated model parameter uncertainly by a factor of two or more. In the reservoir depth interval (0.4-2.5 km), the predominant volume change is associated with northerly and westerly oriented faults and their intersections. However, below the geothermal production zone proper [the depth range 2.5-5.0 km], there is the suggestion that both north- and northeast-trending faults may act as conduits for fluid flow.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2006

Distribution, 14 C chronology, and paleomagnetism of latest Pleistocene and Holocene lava flows at Haleakala volcano, Island of Maui, Hawai'i: A revision of lava flow hazard zones

New mapping and 60 new radiocarbon ages define the age and distribution of latest Pleistocene and Holocene (past 13,000 years) lava flows at Haleakalā volcano, Island of Maui. Paleomagnetic directions were determined for 118 sites, of which 89 are in lava flows younger than 13,000 years. The paleomagnetic data, in conjunction with a reference paleosecular variation (PSV) curve for the Hawaiian Islands, are combined with our knowledge of age limitations based on stratigraphic control to refine age estimates for some of the undated lava flows. The resulting volumetric rate calculations indicate that within analytical error, the extrusion rate has remained nearly constant during the past 13,000 years, in the range 0.05–0.15 km 3 /kyr, only about half the long-term rate required to produce the postshield strata emplaced in the past &sim;1 Myr. Haleakalā's eruptive frequency is similar to that of Hualālai volcano on the Island of Hawai‘i, but its lava flows cover substantially less area per unit time. The reduced rates of lava coverage indicate a lower volcanic hazard than in similar zones at Hualālai.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

Long-term carbon sinks in marsh soils of coastal Louisiana are at risk to wetland loss

Coastal marshes are essential habitats for soil carbon accumulation and burial, which can influence the global carbon budget. Coastal Louisiana has extensive marsh habitats (fresh, intermediate, brackish, and saline) where soil cores were collected to a depth of 100 cm at 24 sites to assess long-term carbon accumulation and burial rates. Select soil depth intervals were analyzed for bulk density, total carbon, and radionuclide ( 137 Cs and 210 Pb) dating. Marsh habitat maps (years 1949–2013) were also used to determine the most frequently occurring habitat at each field site. Over 5 decades, half of the sites transitioned between marsh habitats at least once. Saline marshes tended to have lower mean total carbon density (0.04 ± 0.002 g cm −3 ) and lower mean long-term total carbon accumulation rates (211 ± 46 g TC m −2 yr −1 , n = 5, based on 210 Pb) compared to the other marsh habitats. Using marsh habitat specific accumulation rates and area, the total carbon burial rate for coastal Louisiana in year 2013 was estimated at 4.3 Tg TC yr −1 which accounts for about 5%–21% of the estimated tidal wetland burial rate globally. Historically, about 1.0 Tg TC yr −1 was lost due to reduced marsh area from 1949 to 2013. With no coastal restoration activity, the predicted wetland loss over the next 50 years could reduce carbon burial in coastal Louisiana to 2.1 Tg TC yr −1 , a reduction of about 50% from the year 2013 rate, with potential to significantly alter the global carbon budget.

Louisiana↗

USGS2022

Predicted uranium and radon concentrations in New Hampshire (USA) groundwater—Using Multi Order Hydrologic Position as predictors

Two radioactive elements, uranium (U) and radon (Rn), which are of potential concern in New Hampshire (NH) groundwater, are investigated. Exceedance probability maps are tools to highlight locations where the concentrations of undesirable substances in the groundwater may be elevated. Two forms of statistical analysis are used to create exceedance probability maps for U and Rn in NH groundwater. The first, Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), was selected for estimating U exceedance values. It computes exceedance values directly using the Bernoulli distribution function. The second method of statistical analysis used for Rn to determine exceedance probabilities is ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. In the process of determining exceedance probabilities for U and Rn, the utility of a new dataset is investigated. That new predictor dataset is the Multi-Order Hydrologic Position (MOHP) dataset. MOHP raster datasets have been produced nationally for the conterminous United States at a 30-m resolution. The concept behind MOHP is that, for any given point on the earth's surface, there is the potential for a longer groundwater flow path as one goes deeper beneath the land surface. MOHP predictors were tested in both models. Three MOHP predictors were found useful in the BRT model and two in the OLS model. MOHP data were found useful as predictors along with other site characteristics in predicting U and Rn exceedance probabilities in New Hampshire groundwater.

New Hampshire↗

USGS2025

Modelling and mapping burn severity of prescribed and wildfires across the southeastern United States (2000-2022)

Background The southeastern United States (‘Southeast’) experiences high levels of fire activity, but the preponderance of small and prescribed fires means that existing burn severity products are incomplete across the region. Aims We developed and applied a burn severity model across the Southeast to enhance our understanding of regional burn severity patterns. Methods We used Composite Burn Index (CBI) plot data from across the conterminous US (CONUS) to train a gradient-boosted decision tree model. The model was optimised for the Southeast and applied to the annual Landsat Burned Area product for 2000–2022 across the region. Key results The burn severity model had a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.48 ( R 2 = 0.70) and 0.50 ( R 2 = 0.37) for the CONUS and Southeast, respectively. The Southeast, relative to CONUS, had lower mean absolute residuals in low and moderate burn severity categories. Burn severity was consistently lower in areas affected by prescribed burns relative to wildfires. Conclusions Although regional performance was limited by a lack of high burn severity CBI plots, the burn severity dataset demonstrated patterns consistent with low-severity, frequent fire regimes characteristic of Southeastern ecosystems. Implications More complete data on burn severity will enhance regional management of fire-dependent ecosystems and improve estimates of fuels and fire emissions.

Southeastern United States↗