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At least 829 records · Page 46Linked to original sources

Experimental evidence of long-term reproductive costs in a colonial nesting seabird

Trade-offs between current and future reproduction are central to the evolution of life histories. Experiments that manipulate brood size provide an effective approach to investigating future costs of current reproduction. Most manipulative studies to date, however, have addressed only the short-term effects of brood size manipulation. Our goal was to determine whether survival or breeding costs of reproduction in a long-lived species manifest beyond the subsequent breeding season. To this end, we investigated long-term survival and breeding effects of a multi-year reproductive cost experiment conducted on black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla , a long-lived colonial nesting seabird. We used multi-state capture–recapture modeling to assess hypotheses regarding the role of experimentally reduced breeding effort and other factors, including climate phase and colony size and productivity, on future survival and breeding probabilities during the 16-yr period following the experiment. We found that forced nest failures had a positive effect on breeding probability over time, but had no effect on long-term survival. This apparent canalization of survival suggests that adult survival is the most important parameter influencing fitness in this long-lived species, and that adults should pay reproductive costs in ways that do not compromise this critical life history parameter. When declines in adult survival rate are observed, they may indicate populations of conservation concern.

Alaska↗

Ecological effects of climate change on salt marsh wildlife: a case study from a highly urbanized estuary

Coastal areas are high-risk zones subject to the impacts of global climate change, with significant increases in the frequencies of extreme weather and storm events, and sea-level rise forecast by 2100. These physical processes are expected to alter estuaries, resulting in loss of intertidal wetlands and their component wildlife species. In particular, impacts to salt marshes and their wildlife will vary both temporally and spatially and may be irreversible and severe. Synergistic effects caused by combining stressors with anthropogenic land-use patterns could create areas of significant biodiversity loss and extinction, especially in urbanized estuaries that are already heavily degraded. In this paper, we discuss current ideas, challenges, and concerns regarding the maintenance of salt marshes and their resident wildlife in light of future climate conditions. We suggest that many salt marsh habitats are already impaired and are located where upslope transgression is restricted, resulting in reduction and loss of these habitats in the future. In addition, we conclude that increased inundation frequency and water depth will have negative impacts on the demography of small or isolated wildlife meta-populations as well as their community interactions. We illustrate our points with a case study on the Pacific Coast of North America at San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge in California, an area that supports endangered wildlife species reliant on salt marshes for all aspects of their life histories.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

Temporal variability of carbon and nutrient burial, sediment accretion, and mass accumulation over the past century in a carbonate platform mangrove forest of the Florida Everglades.

The objective of this research was to measure temporal variability in accretion and mass sedimentation rates (including organic carbon (OC), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorous (TP)) from the past century in a mangrove forest on the Shark River in Everglades National Park, USA. The 210 Pb Constant Rate of Supply model was applied to six soil cores to calculate annual rates over the most recent 10, 50, and 100 year time spans. Our results show that rates integrated over longer timeframes are lower than those for shorter, recent periods of observation. Additionally, the substantial spatial variability between cores over the 10 year period is diminished over the 100 year record, raising two important implications. First, a multiple-decade assessment of soil accretion and OC burial provides a more conservative estimate and is likely to be most relevant for forecasting these rates relative to long-term processes of sea level rise and climate change mitigation. Second, a small number of sampling locations are better able to account for spatial variability over the longer periods than for the shorter periods. The site average 100 year OC burial rate, 123 ± 19 (standard deviation) g m -2 yr -1 , is low compared with global mangrove values. High TN and TP burial rates in recent decades may lead to increased soil carbon remineralization, contributing to the low carbon burial rates. Finally, the strong correlation between OC burial and accretion across this site signals the substantial contribution of OC to soil building in addition to the ecosystem service of CO 2 sequestration.

Florida↗

Multi-year hydroclimatic droughts and pluvials across the conterminous United States

Time series of water‐year runoff for 2,109 hydrologic units (HUs) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) for the 1900 through 2014 period were used to identify drought and pluvial (i.e., wet) periods. Characteristics of the drought and pluvial events including frequency, duration, and severity were examined and compared. Additionally, a similar analysis was performed using gridded tree‐ring reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the period 1475 through 2005 to place the drought and pluvial characteristics determined using water‐year runoff for 1900 through 2014 in the context of multi‐century climate variability. The temporal and spatial variability of droughts and pluvials determined using runoff for the 1900 through 2014 period indicated that most drought events in the CONUS occurred before about 1970, whereas most pluvial periods occurred after about 1970. This change in the frequencies of drought and pluvial events around 1970 was largely related to an increase in fall (October through December) precipitation across much of the central United States. Also, the duration and severity of droughts and pluvials identified using runoff for the 1900 through 2014 period generally were not significantly different from the drought and pluvial characteristics identified using the PDSI for the 1475 through 2005 period.

International Journal of Climatology↗

A new approach for predicting drought-related vegetation stress: Integrating satellite, climate, and biophysical data over the U.S. central plains

Droughts are normal climate episodes, yet they are among the most expensive natural disasters in the world. Knowledge about the timing, severity, and pattern of droughts on the landscape can be incorporated into effective planning and decision-making. In this study, we present a data mining approach to modeling vegetation stress due to drought and mapping its spatial extent during the growing season. Rule-based regression tree models were generated that identify relationships between satellite-derived vegetation conditions, climatic drought indices, and biophysical data, including land-cover type, available soil water capacity, percent of irrigated farm land, and ecological type. The data mining method builds numerical rule-based models that find relationships among the input variables. Because the models can be applied iteratively with input data from previous time periods, the method enables to provide predictions of vegetation conditions farther into the growing season based on earlier conditions. Visualizing the model outputs as mapped information (called VegPredict) provides a means to evaluate the model. We present prototype maps for the 2002 drought year for Nebraska and South Dakota and discuss potential uses for these maps.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing↗

The effects of unpaved roads on instream sediment: Patterns and challenges for monitoring

Despite > 700,000 km of unpaved roads in the western United States, our knowledge of how roads impact instream sediment is unclear. We combined two studies, including (1) a regional analysis linking stream habitat data from a large-scale monitoring program with road density data to identify generalizable relationships between roads and streambed sediment distributions and (2) a targeted field study to evaluate the responses of streambed and suspended sediment collected at locations above and below road–stream connection points to better understand the consistency of responses. Regional analyses indicated a significant positive relationship between road density and fine sediment in pool tails and a significant negative relationship between road density and median particle size. We also found significant relationships between landscape, climate, and local covariates and streambed sediment metrics, where most of the parameter estimates of the covariates were equal to or stronger than those for road density. Field studies suggested higher suspended sediment levels across the seasonal hydrologic regime where roads were open to travel year-round. However, sediment responses to road–stream connection points varied by metric and site. Together, our results indicated negative relationships between increasing road densities and sediment size distributions, but detecting road effects at site scales will be challenging given the effects of covariates that can overwhelm sediment signals.

Montana↗

Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats ( Eptesicus fuscus ) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark–recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (λ) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI ] = 0.77–0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (λ = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057–1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals.

Colorado↗

Potential effects of climate change on tick-borne diseases in Rhode Island

Human cases of tick-borne diseases have been increasing in the United States. In particular, the incidence of Lyme disease, the major vector-borne disease in Rhode Island, has risen, along with cases of babesiosis and anaplasmosis, all vectored by the blacklegged tick. These increases might relate, in part, to climate change, although other environmental changes in the northeast (land use as it relates to habitat; vertebrate host populations for tick reproduction and enzootic cycling) also contribute. Lone star ticks, formerly southern in distribution, have been spreading northward, including expanded distributions in Rhode Island. Illnesses associated with this species include ehrlichiosis and alpha-gal syndrome, which are expected to increase. Ranges of other tick species have also been expanding in southern New England, including the Gulf Coast tick and the introduced Asian longhorned tick. These ticks can carry human pathogens, but the implications for human disease in Rhode Island are unclear.

Rhode Island↗

Plot- and landscape-level changes in climate and vegetation following defoliation of exotic saltcedar (Tamarix sp.) from the biocontrol agent Diorhabda carinulata along a stream in the Mojave Desert (USA)

The biocontrol agent, northern tamarisk beetle (Diorhabda carinulata), has been used to defoliate non-native saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) in USA western riparian systems since 2001. Biocontrol has the potential to impact biotic communities and climatic conditions in affected riparian areas. To determine the relationships between biocontrol establishment and effects on vegetation and climate at the plot and landscape scales, we measured temperature, relative humidity, foliage canopy, solar radiation, and used satellite imagery to assess saltcedar defoliation and evapotranspiration (ET) along the Virgin River in the Mojave Desert. Following defoliation solar radiation increased, daily humidity decreased, and maximum daily temperatures tended to increase. MODIS and Landsat satellite imagery showed defoliation was widespread, resulting in reductions in ET and vegetation indices. Because biocontrol beetles are spreading into new saltcedar habitats on arid western rivers, and the eventual equilibrium between beetles and saltcedar is unknown, it is necessary to monitor trends for ecosystem functions and higher trophic-level responses in habitats impacted by biocontrol.

Mojave Desert↗

Place vs. time and vegetational persistence: A comparison of four tropical mires from the Illinois Basin during the height of the Pennsylvanian Ice Age

Coal balls were collected from four coal beds in the southeastern part of the Illinois Basin. Collections were made from the Springfield, Herrin, and Baker coals in western Kentucky, and from the Danville Coal in southwestern Indiana. These four coal beds are among the principal mineable coals of the Illinois Basin and belong to the Carbondale and Shelburn Formations of late Middle Pennsylvanian age. Vegetational composition was analyzed quantitatively. Coal-ball samples from the Springfield, Herrin, and Baker are dominated by the lycopsid tree Lepidophloios, with lesser numbers of Psaronius tree ferns, medullosan pteridosperms, and the lycopsid trees Synchysidendron and Diaphorodendron. This vegetation is similar to that found in the Springfield and Herrin coals elsewhere in the Illinois Basin, as reported in previous studies. The Danville coal sample, which is considerably smaller than the others, is dominated by Psaronius with the lycopsids Sigillaria and Synchysidendron as subdominants. Coal balls from the Springfield coal were collected in zones directly from the coal bed and their zone-by-zone composition indicates three to four distinct plant assemblages. The other coals were analyzed as whole-seam random samples, averaging the landscape composition of the parent mire environments. This analysis indicates that these coals, separated from each other by marine and terrestrial-clastic deposits, have essentially the same floristic composition and, thus, appear to represent a common species pool that persisted throughout the late Middle Pennsylvanian, despite changes in baselevel and climate attendant the glacial interglacial cyclicity of the Pennsylvanian ice age. Patterns of species abundance and diversity are much the same for the Springfield, Herrin, and Baker, although each coal, both in the local area sampled, and regionally, has its own paleobotanical peculiarities. Despite minor differences, these coals indicate a high degree of recurrence of assemblage and landscape organization. The Danville departs dramatically from the dominance-diversity composition of the older coals, presaging patterns of tree-fern and Sigillaria dominance of Late Pennsylvanian coals of the eastern United States, but, nonetheless, built on a species pool shared with the older coals. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

Reference hydrologic networks II. Using reference hydrologic networks to assess climate-driven changes in streamflow

Reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) can play an important role in monitoring for changes in the hydrological regime related to climate variation and change. Currently, the literature concerning hydrological response to climate variations is complex and confounded by the combinations of many methods of analysis, wide variations in hydrology, and the inclusion of data series that include changes in land use, storage regulation and water use in addition to those of climate. Three case studies that illustrate a variety of approaches to the analysis of data from RHNs are presented and used, together with a summary of studies from the literature, to develop approaches for the investigation of changes in the hydrological regime at a continental or global scale, particularly for international comparison. We present recommendations for an analysis framework and the next steps to advance such an initiative. There is a particular focus on the desirability of establishing standardized procedures and methodologies for both the creation of new national RHNs and the systematic analysis of data derived from a collection of RHNs.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗

Climate change implications for tropical islands: Interpolating and interpreting statistically downscaled GCM projections for management and planning

The potential ecological and economic effects of climate change for tropical islands were studied using output from 12 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) taking Puerto Rico as a test case. Two model selection/model averaging strategies were used: the average of all available GCMs and the average of the models that are able to reproduce the observed large-scale dynamics that control precipitation over the Caribbean. Five island-wide and multidecadal averages of daily precipitation and temperature were estimated by way of a climatology-informed interpolation of the site-specific downscaled climate model output. Annual cooling degree-days (CDD) were calculated as a proxy index for air-conditioning energy demand, and two measures of annual no-rainfall days were used as drought indices. Holdridge life zone classification was used to map the possible ecological effects of climate change. Precipitation is predicted to decline in both model ensembles, but the decrease was more severe in the “regionally consistent” models. The precipitation declines cause gradual and linear increases in drought intensity and extremes. The warming from the 1960–90 period to the 2071–99 period was 4.6°–9°C depending on the global emission scenarios and location. This warming may cause increases in CDD, and consequently increasing energy demands. Life zones may shift from wetter to drier zones with the possibility of losing most, if not all, of the subtropical rain forests and extinction risks to rain forest specialists or obligates.

Puerto Rico↗

The potential of wave energy conversion to mitigate coastal erosion from hurricanes

Wave energy conversion technologies have recently attracted more attention as part of global efforts to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy resources. While ocean waves can provide renewable energy, they can also be destructive to coastal areas that are often densely populated and vulnerable to coastal erosion. There have been a variety of efforts to mitigate the impacts of wave- and storm-induced erosion; however, they are either temporary solutions or approaches that are not able to adapt to a changing climate. This study explores a green and sustainable approach to mitigating coastal erosion from hurricanes through wave energy conversion. A barrier island, Dauphin Island, off the coast of Alabama, is used as a test case. The potential use of wave energy converter farms to mitigate erosion due to hurricane storm surges while simultaneously generating renewable energy is explored through simulations that are forced with storm data using the XBeach model. It is shown that wave farms can impact coastal morphodynamics and have the potential to reduce dune and beach erosion, predominantly in the western portion of the island. The capacity of wave farms to influence coastal morphodynamics varies with the storm intensity.

Alabama↗

Regional scale estimates of baseflow and factors influencing baseflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Study region The study region encompasses the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), which provides water for 40 million people and is a vital part of the water supply in the western U.S. Study focus Groundwater and surface water can be considered a single water resource and thus it is important to understand groundwater contributions to streamflow, or baseflow, within a region. Previously, quantification of baseflow using chemical mass balance at large numbers of sites was not possible because of data limitations. A new method using regression-derived daily specific conductance values with conductivity mass balance hydrograph separation allows for baseflow estimation at sites across large regions. This method was applied to estimate baseflow discharge at 229 sites across the UCRB. Subsequently, climate, soil, topography, and land cover characteristics were statistically evaluated using principal component analysis (PCA) to determine their influence on baseflow discharge. New hydrological insights for the region Results suggest that approximately half of the streamflow in the UCRB is baseflow derived from groundwater discharge to streams. Higher baseflow yields typically occur in upper elevation areas of the UCRB. PCA identified precipitation, snow, sand content of soils, elevation, land surface slope, percent grasslands, and percent natural barren lands as being positively correlated with baseflow yield; whereas temperature, potential evapotranspiration, silt and clay content of soils, percent agriculture, and percent shrublands were negatively correlated with baseflow yield.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

SPEAR: The next generation GFDL modeling system for seasonal to multidecadal prediction and projection

We document the development and simulation characteristics of the next generation modeling system for seasonal to decadal prediction and projection at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). SPEAR ( S eamless System for P rediction and EA rth System R esearch) is built from component models recently developed at GFDL—the AM4 atmosphere model, MOM6 ocean code, LM4 land model, and SIS2 sea ice model. The SPEAR models are specifically designed with attributes needed for a prediction model for seasonal to decadal time scales, including the ability to run large ensembles of simulations with available computational resources. For computational speed SPEAR uses a coarse ocean resolution of approximately 1.0° (with tropical refinement). SPEAR can use differing atmospheric horizontal resolutions ranging from 1° to 0.25°. The higher atmospheric resolution facilitates improved simulation of regional climate and extremes. SPEAR is built from the same components as the GFDL CM4 and ESM4 models but with design choices geared toward seasonal to multidecadal physical climate prediction and projection. We document simulation characteristics for the time mean climate, aspects of internal variability, and the response to both idealized and realistic radiative forcing change. We describe in greater detail one focus of the model development process that was motivated by the importance of the Southern Ocean to the global climate system. We present sensitivity tests that document the influence of the Antarctic surface heat budget on Southern Ocean ventilation and deep global ocean circulation. These findings were also useful in the development processes for the GFDL CM4 and ESM4 models.

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems↗

Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making

This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗

Evolution of CAM and C 4 carbon-concentrating mechanisms

Mechanisms for concentrating carbon around the Rubisco enzyme, which drives the carbon-reducing steps in photosynthesis, are widespread in plants; in vascular plants they are known as crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) and C 4 photosynthesis. CAM is common in desert succulents, tropical epiphytes, and aquatic plants and is characterized by nighttime fixation of CO2. The proximal selective factor driving the evolution of this CO2-concentrating pathway is low daytime CO2, which results from the unusual reverse stomatal behavior of terrestrial CAM species or from patterns of ambient CO2 availability for aquatic CAM species. In terrestrials the ultimate selective factor is water stress that has selected for increased water use efficiency. In aquatics the ultimate selective factor is diel fluctuations in CO2 availability for palustrine species and extreme oligotrophic conditions for lacustrine species. C4 photosynthesis is based on similar biochemistry but carboxylation steps are spatially separated in the leaf rather than temporally as in CAM. This biochemical pathway is most commonly associated with a specialized leaf anatomy known as Kranz anatomy; however, there are exceptions. The ultimate selective factor driving the evolution of this pathway is excessively high photorespiration that inhibits normal C3 photosynthesis under high light and high temperature in both terrestrial and aquatic habitats. CAM is an ancient pathway that likely has been present since the Paleozoic era in aquatic species from shallow-water palustrine habitats. While atmospheric CO2 levels have undoubtedly affected the evolution of terrestrial plant carbon-concentrating mechanisms, there is reason to believe that past atmospheric changes have not played as important a selective role in the aquatic milieu since palustrine habitats today are not generally carbon sinks, and the selective factors driving aquatic CAM are autogenic. Terrestrial CAM, in contrast, is of increasing selective value under extreme water deficits, and undoubtedly, high Mesozoic CO2 levels reduced the amount of landscape perceived by plants as water limited. Late Tertiary and Quaternary reductions in atmospheric CO2, coupled with increasing seasonality, were probably times of substantial species radiation and ecological expansion for CAM plants. C4 photosynthesis occurs in only about half as many families as CAM, and three-fourths of C4 species are either grasses or sedges. Molecular phylogenies indicate C4 is a more recent innovation than CAM and that it originated in the mid-Tertiary, 20–30 Ma, although some data support an earlier origin. While the timing of the origin of C4 remains controversial, the nearly explosive increase in C4 species is clearly documented in the late Miocene, 4–7 Ma. Increasing seasonality has been widely suggested as an important climatic stimulus for this C4 expansion. Alternatively, based on models of photosynthetic quantum yield at different temperatures and CO2 concentration, it has been hypothesized that the late Miocene C4 expansion resulted from declining atmospheric CO2 levels. This model is most appropriate for explaining the transition from C3 grasslands to C4 grasslands but by itself may not be sufficient to explain the more likely scenario of a late Miocene transition from C3 woodland/ savanna to C4 grasslands. A largely unexplored hypothesis is that climatic changes in late Miocene altered disturbance regimes, in particular the incidence of fires, which today are often associated with maintenance of C4 grasslands. Oceanic charcoal sediments that appear to represent Aeolian deposits from continental wildfires follow a strikingly similar pattern of explosive increase in late Miocene. Climate, CO2, and disturbance are not mutually exclusive explanations and probably all acted in concert to promote the expansion of C4 grasslands. More recently, late Quaternary changes in CO2 may have been responsible for driving major changes in the landscape distribution of C4 species. The theory is sound; however, many of the studies cited in support of this model are open to alternative interpretations, and none has eliminated climatic factors as important selective agents. CAM and C4 evolution required coupling of biochemical pathways with structural changes in photosynthetic tissues, succulence in CAM and Kranz in C4. This was apparently accomplished by piecemeal evolution beginning with mechanisms for recapturing respiratory CO2, although this need not have been so in aquatic CAM species. It has been proposed that the extreme rarity of both pathways in the same plant results from biochemical and structural incompatibilities (Sage 2002). Equally important is the fact that the selective environments are quite different, with CAM evolution thriving on stressful sites inhospitable to C3 species whereas C4 evolution has selected for rapid growth capable of outcompeting associated C3 plants.

International Journal of Plant Sciences↗

Sediment fluxes from California Coastal Rivers: the influences of climate, geology, and topography

The influences of geologic and climatic factors on erosion and sedimentation processes in rivers draining the western flank of the California Coast Range are assessed. Annual suspended, bedload, and total sediment fluxes were determined for 16 river basins that have hydrologic records covering all or most of the period from 1950 to 2006 and have been relatively unaffected by flow storage, regulation, and depletion, which alter the downstream movement of water and sediment. The occurrence of relatively large annual sediment fluxes are strongly influenced by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The frequency of relatively large annual sediment fluxes decreases from north to south during La Nina phases and increases from north to south during El Nino phases. The influence of ENSO is modulated over a period of decades by the PDO, such that relatively large annual sediment fluxes are more frequent during a La Nina phase in conjunction with a cool PDO and during an El Nino phase in conjunction with a warm PDO. Values of mean annual sediment flux, , were regressed against basin and climatic characteristics. Basin area, bedrock erodibility, basin relief, and precipitation explain 87% of the variation in from the 16 river basins. Bedrock erodibility is the most significant characteristic influencing . Basin relief is a superior predictor of compared with basin slope. is nearly proportional to basin area and increases with increasing precipitation. For a given percentage change, basin relief has a 2.3-fold greater effect on than a similar change in precipitation. The estimated natural from all California coastal rivers for the period 1950–2006 would have been approximately 85 million tons without flow storage, regulation, and depletion; the actual has been approximately 50 million tons, because of the effects of flow storage, regulation, and depletion.

California↗