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USGS2025

Identification of representative earthquakes for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) using earthquake rupture forecasts and machine learning

As probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) focuses more on assessments for localized, populous regions, techniques are needed to identify a subsample of representative earthquake ruptures to make the computational requirements for producing high-resolution hazard maps tractable. Moreover, the greatest epistemic uncertainty in seismic PTHA is related to source characterization, which is often poorly defined and subjective. We address these two salient issues by applying streamlined earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs), based on combinatorial optimization methods, to an unsupervised machine learning workflow for identifying representative ruptures. ERFs determine the optimal distribution of a millennia-scale sample of earthquakes by inverting the observed slip rate on major faults. We use two previously developed combinatorial optimization ERFs, integer programming and greedy sequential, to produce the optimal location of ruptures with seismic moments sampled from a regional Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distribution. These ruptures in turn are used to calculate peak nearshore tsunami amplitude, using computationally efficient tsunami Green's functions. An unsupervised machine learning workflow is then used to identify a small subsample of the earthquakes input to ERFs for onshore PTHA analysis. We eliminate epistemic uncertainty related to source distribution under traditional PTHA analysis; in its place, a quantifiable, less subjective and generally smaller uncertainty related to the input to ERFs is included. The Nankai subduction zone is used as a test case, where previous ERFs have been conducted. Results indicate that the locations of representative earthquakes are sensitive to choice of magnitude–area relation and to whether a minimum cumulative stress objective is imposed on the fault. In general, incorporating ERFs into PTHA provide a physically self-consistent method to incorporate fault slip information in determining representative earthquakes for onshore PTHA, eliminating a major source of epistemic uncertainty.

Nankai subduction zone↗

USGS2018

KG²B, a collaborative benchmarking exercise for estimating the permeability of the Grimsel granodiorite - Part 2: modeling, microstructures and complementary data

Measuring and modelling the permeability of tight rocks remains a challenging task. In addition to the traditional sources of errors that affect more permeable formations (e.g. sample selection, non-representative specimens, disturbance introduced during sample acquisition and preparation), tight rocks can be particularly prone to solid–fluid interactions and thus more sensitive to the methods, procedures and techniques used to measure permeability. To address this problem, it is desirable to collect, for a single material, measurements obtained by different methods and pore fluids. For that purpose, a benchmarking exercise involving 24 laboratories was organized for measuring and modelling the permeability of a single low-permeability material, the Grimsel granodiorite. The objectives of the benchmark were: (i) to compare the results for a given method, (ii) to compare the results between different methods, (iii) to analyse the accuracy of each method, (iv) to study the influence of experimental conditions (especially the nature of pore fluid), (v) to discuss the relevance of indirect methods and models and finally (vi) to suggest good practice for low-permeability measurements. To complement the data set of permeability measurements presented in a companion paper, we focus here on (i) quantitative analysis of microstructures and pore size distribution, (ii) permeability modelling and (iii) complementary measurements of permeability anisotropy and poroelastic parameters. Broad ion beam—scanning electron microscopy, micro-computerized tomography, mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) methods were used to characterize the microstructures and provided the input parameters for permeability modelling. Several models were used: (i) basic statistical models, (ii) 3-D pore network and effective medium models, (iii) percolation model using MICP data and (iv) free-fluid model using NMR data. The models were generally successful in predicting the actual range of measured permeability. Statistical models overestimate the permeability because they do not adequately account for the heterogeneity of the crack network. Pore network and effective medium models provide additional constraints on crack parameters such as aspect ratio, aperture, density and connectivity. MICP and advanced microscopy techniques are very useful tools providing important input data for permeability estimation. Permeability measured—orthogonal to foliation is lower that—parallel to foliation. Combining the experimental and modelling results provide a unique and rich data set.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2015

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change ( γ sensitivity) of −14 to −19 Pg C °C −1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH 4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH 4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH 4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗

USGS2005

Climate science and famine early warning

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2020

Frequent burning causes large losses of carbon from deep soil layers in a temperate savanna

Fire activity is changing dramatically across the globe, with uncertain effects on ecosystem processes, especially below‐ground. Fire‐driven losses of soil carbon (C) are often assumed to occur primarily in the upper soil layers because the repeated combustion of above‐ground biomass limits organic matter inputs into surface soil. However, C losses from deeper soil may occur if frequent burning reduces root biomass inputs of C into deep soil layers or stimulates losses of C via leaching and priming. To assess the effects of fire on soil C, we sampled 12 plots in a 51‐year‐long fire frequency manipulation experiment in a temperate oak savanna, where variation in prescribed burning frequency has created a gradient in vegetation structure from closed‐canopy forest in unburned plots to open‐canopy savanna in frequently burned plots. Soil C stocks were nonlinearly related to fire frequency, with soil C peaking in savanna plots burned at an intermediate fire frequency and declining in the most frequently burned plots. Losses from deep soil pools were significant, with the absolute difference between intermediately burned plots versus most frequently burned plots more than doubling when the full 1 m sample was considered rather than the top 0–20 cm alone (losses of 98.5 Mg C/ha [−76%] and 42.3 Mg C/ha [−68%] in the full 1 m and 0–20 cm layers respectively). Compared to unburned forested plots, the most frequently burned plots had 65.8 Mg C/ha (−58%) less C in the full 1 m sample. Root biomass below the top 20 cm also declined by 39% with more frequent burning. Concurrent fire‐driven losses of nitrogen and gains in calcium and phosphorus suggest that burning may increase nitrogen limitation and play a key role in the calcium and phosphorus cycles in temperate savannas. Synthesis . Our results illustrate that fire‐driven losses in soil C and root biomass in deep soil layers may be critical factors regulating the net effect of shifting fire regimes on ecosystem C in forest‐savanna transitions. Projected changes in soil C with shifting fire frequencies in savannas may be 50% too low if they only consider changes in the topsoil.

Minnesota↗

USGS2017

Effects of impervious area and BMP implementation and design on storm runoff and water quality in eight small watersheds

The effects of increases in effective impervious area (EIA) and the implementation of water quality protection designed detention pond best management practices (BMPs) on storm runoff and stormwater quality were assessed in Gwinnett County, Georgia, for the period 2001-2008. Trends among eight small watersheds were compared, using a time trend study design. Significant trends were detected in three storm hydrologic metrics and in five water quality constituents that were adjusted for variability in storm characteristics and climate. Trends in EIA ranged from 0.10 to 1.35, and changes in EIA treated by BMPs ranged from 0.19 to 1.32; both expressed in units of percentage of drainage area per year. Trend relations indicated that for every 1% increase in watershed EIA, about 2.6, 1.1, and 1.5% increases in EIA treated by BMPs would be required to counteract the effects of EIA added to the watersheds on peak streamflow, stormwater yield, and storm streamflow runoff, respectively. Relations between trends in EIA, BMP implementation, and water quality were counterintuitive. This may be the result of (1) changes in constituent inputs in the watersheds, especially downstream of areas treated by BMPs; (2) BMPs may have increased the duration of stormflow that results in downstream channel erosion; and/or (3) spurious relationships between increases in EIA, BMP implementation, and constituent inputs with development rates.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2018

Floodplain trapping and cycling compared to streambank erosion of sediment and nutrients in an agricultural watershed

Floodplains and streambanks can positively and negatively influence downstream water quality through interacting geomorphic and biogeochemical processes. Few studies have measured those processes in agricultural watersheds. We measured inputs (floodplain sedimentation and dissolved inorganic loading), cycling (floodplain soil nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P] mineralization), and losses (bank erosion) of sediment, N, and P longitudinally in stream reaches of Smith Creek, an agricultural watershed in the Valley and Ridge physiographic province. All study reaches were net depositional (floodplain deposition > bank erosion), had high N and P sedimentation and loading rates to the floodplain, high soil concentrations of N and P, and high rates of floodplain soil N and P mineralization. High sediment, N, and P inputs to floodplains are attributed to agricultural activity in the region. Rates of P mineralization were much greater than those measured in other studies of nontidal floodplains that used the same method. Floodplain connectivity and sediment deposition decreased longitudinally, contrary to patterns in most watersheds. The net trapping function of Smith Creek floodplains indicates a benefit to water quality. Further research is needed to determine if future decreases in floodplain deposition, continued bank erosion, and the potential for nitrate leaching from nutrient-enriched floodplain soils could pose a long-term source of sediment and nutrients to downstream rivers.

Virginia↗

USGS2016

Semi-arid vegetation response to antecedent climate and water balance windows

Questions Can we improve understanding of vegetation response to water availability on monthly time scales in semi-arid environments using remote sensing methods? What climatic or water balance variables and antecedent windows of time associated with these variables best relate to the condition of vegetation? Can we develop credible near-term forecasts from climate data that can be used to prepare for future climate change effects on vegetation? Location Semi-arid grasslands in Capitol Reef National Park, Utah, USA. Methods We built vegetation response models by relating the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from MODIS imagery in Mar–Nov 2000–2013 to antecedent climate and water balance variables preceding the monthly NDVI observations. We compared how climate and water balance variables explained vegetation greenness and then used a multi-model ensemble of climate and water balance models to forecast monthly NDVI for three holdout years. Results Water balance variables explained vegetation greenness to a greater degree than climate variables for most growing season months. Seasonally important variables included measures of antecedent water input and storage in spring, switching to indicators of drought, input or use in summer, followed by antecedent moisture availability in autumn. In spite of similar climates, there was evidence the grazed grassland showed a response to drying conditions 1 mo sooner than the ungrazed grassland. Lead times were generally short early in the growing season and antecedent window durations increased from 3 mo early in the growing season to 1 yr or more as the growing season progressed. Forecast accuracy for three holdout years using a multi-model ensemble of climate and water balance variables outperformed forecasts made with a naïve NDVI climatology. Conclusions We determined the influence of climate and water balance on vegetation at a fine temporal scale, which presents an opportunity to forecast vegetation response with short lead times. This understanding was obtained through high-frequency vegetation monitoring using remote sensing, which reduces the costs and time necessary for field measurements and can lead to more rapid detection of vegetation changes that could help managers take appropriate actions.

Applied Vegetation Science↗

USGS2017

From salmon to shad: Shifting sources of marine-derived nutrients in the Columbia River Basin

Like Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.), nonnative American shad ( Alosa sapidissima ) have the potential to convey large quantities of nutrients between the Pacific Ocean and freshwater spawning areas in the Columbia River Basin (CRB). American shad are now the most numerous anadromous fish in the CRB, yet the magnitude of the resulting nutrient flux owing to the shift from salmon to shad is unknown. Nutrient flux models revealed that American shad conveyed over 15,000 kg of nitrogen (N) and 3,000 kg of phosphorus (P) annually to John Day Reservoir, the largest mainstem reservoir in the lower Columbia River. Shad were net importers of N, with juveniles and postspawners exporting just 31% of the N imported by adults. Shad were usually net importers of P, with juveniles and postspawners exporting 46% of the P imported by adults on average. American shad contributed <0.2% of the total annual P load into John Day Reservoir, but during June when most adult shad are migrating into John Day Reservoir, they contributed as much as 2.0% of the P load. Nutrient inputs by American shad were similar to current but far less than historical inputs of Pacific salmon owing to their smaller size. Given the relatively high background P levels and low retention times in lower Columbia River reservoirs, it is unlikely that shad marine-derived nutrients affect nutrient balances or food web productivity through autotrophic pathways. However, a better understanding of shad spawning aggregations in the CRB is needed.

Columbia River, John Day Reservoir↗

USGS2026

Growth of a threatened desert fish becomes resource dependent when released from temperature limitation in a regulated river

1. Growth of ectotherms typically positively correlates with increasing temperature towards an optimal temperature range, followed by a decline in growth when temperatures exceed the optimal temperature range for that organism. When temperature is within or close to the optimal range, food availability and other environmental factors can play important roles in modifying growth rates. River regulation often alters both environmental conditions (e.g., flow, turbidity and temperature) and aquatic food webs, modifying the quality and quantity of resources available to consumers. Here we aim to understand how food availability, water temperature and other environmental factors are associated with fish growth (defined here as a change in length) in a large, regulated desert river. 2. We measured growth of humpback chub (Gila cypha) at two river reaches located 240 km apart in the Colorado River within the Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA. We then fit Bayesian state-space models of growth that account for variable time at large to test environmental predictors such as water temperature, flow, turbidity (which increases during tributary flooding and can be a proxy for allochthonous inputs) and gross primary productivity (a proxy for autochthonous food) using an inclusion parameter approach. Both river reaches are located below Glen Canyon Dam, which regulates flow, alters seasonal water temperatures and traps sediment, nutrients, and organic carbon; however, merging tributaries and a greater distance from the dam lead to differences in environmental conditions. 3. In the upriver reach, where warm season water temperatures are below the optimal range for humpback chub most of the time, temperature was the primary driver of variation in growth according to inclusion parameter values and the strength of the standardised effect size. Turbidity was also included in the final model for the upper reach, but the inclusion parameter values and standardised effect size were smaller than for temperature. In the downriver, warmer reach, temperature still had the highest inclusion parameter value, but GPP had the highest standardised effect and nearly as high an inclusion parameter value. 4. We conclude that temperature is the primary limiting factor on growth of humpback chub in the Grand Canyon; however, as water temperatures increase, other factors, especially GPP, are associated with temporal variation in growth rates. Over the past two decades, declines in reservoir elevations and the volume of summer releases have increased downstream water temperatures. If warm temperatures persist into the future, other factors may have increasing roles in regulating interannual variability in chub growth. 5. Field studies of ectotherm growth often emphasise the role of water temperature; however, the role of resource availability is also increasingly recognised, especially in bioenergetics studies. Quantifying resource availability directly can be difficult, especially in large, remote rivers. Here, we show here that using proxies for resource availability (i.e., GPP as a proxy for autochthonous inputs) can yield useful insights regarding resource limitations with implications for management of federally listed fish species in a larger regulated river system.

Arizona↗

USGS2012

The response of soil organic carbon of a rich fen peatland in interior Alaska to projected climate change

It is important to understand the fate of carbon in boreal peatland soils in response to climate change because a substantial change in release of this carbon as CO 2 and CH 4 could influence the climate system. The goal of this research was to synthesize the results of a field water table manipulation experiment conducted in a boreal rich fen into a process-based model to understand how soil organic carbon (SOC) of the rich fen might respond to projected climate change. This model, the peatland version of the dynamic organic soil Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (peatland DOS-TEM), was calibrated with data collected during 2005–2011 from the control treatment of a boreal rich fen in the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX). The performance of the model was validated with the experimental data measured from the raised and lowered water-table treatments of APEX during the same period. The model was then applied to simulate future SOC dynamics of the rich fen control site under various CO 2 emission scenarios. The results across these emissions scenarios suggest that the rate of SOC sequestration in the rich fen will increase between year 2012 and 2061 because the effects of warming increase heterotrophic respiration less than they increase carbon inputs via production. However, after 2061, the rate of SOC sequestration will be weakened and, as a result, the rich fen will likely become a carbon source to the atmosphere between 2062 and 2099. During this period, the effects of projected warming increase respiration so that it is greater than carbon inputs via production. Although changes in precipitation alone had relatively little effect on the dynamics of SOC, changes in precipitation did interact with warming to influence SOC dynamics for some climate scenarios.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Nitrogen deposition weakens soil carbon control of nitrogen dynamics across the contiguous United States

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition is unequally distributed across space and time, with inputs to terrestrial ecosystems impacted by industry regulations and variations in human activity. Soil carbon (C) content normally controls the fraction of mineralized N that is nitrified ( ƒ nitrified ), affecting N bioavailability for plants and microbes. However, it is unknown whether N deposition has modified the relationships among soil C, net N mineralization, and net nitrification. To test whether N deposition alters the relationship between soil C and net N transformations, we collected soils from coniferous and deciduous forests, grasslands, and residential yards in 14 regions across the contiguous United States that vary in N deposition rates. We quantified rates of net nitrification and N mineralization, soil chemistry (soil C, N, and pH), and microbial biomass and function (as beta-glucosidase (BG) and N -acetylglucosaminidase (NAG) activity) across these regions. Following expectations, soil C was a driver of ƒ nitrified across regions, whereby increasing soil C resulted in a decline in net nitrification and ƒ nitrified . The ƒ nitrified value increased with lower microbial enzymatic investment in N acquisition (increasing BG:NAG ratio) and lower active microbial biomass, providing some evidence that heterotrophic microbial N demand controls the ammonium pool for nitrifiers. However, higher total N deposition increased ƒ nitrified , including for high soil C sites predicted to have low ƒ nitrified , which decreased the role of soil C as a predictor of ƒ nitrified . Notably, the drop in contemporary atmospheric N deposition rates during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic did not weaken the effect of N deposition on relationships between soil C and ƒ nitrified . Our results suggest that N deposition can disrupt the relationship between soil C and net N transformations, with this change potentially explained by weaker microbial competition for N. Therefore, past N inputs and soil C should be used together to predict N dynamics across terrestrial ecosystems.

contiguous United States↗

USGS2014

Simulating water-quality trends in public-supply wells in transient flow systems

Models need not be complex to be useful. An existing groundwater-flow model of Salt Lake Valley, Utah, was adapted for use with convolution-based advective particle tracking to explain broad spatial trends in dissolved solids. This model supports the hypothesis that water produced from wells is increasingly younger with higher proportions of surface sources as pumping changes in the basin over time. At individual wells, however, predicting specific water-quality changes remains challenging. The influence of pumping-induced transient groundwater flow on changes in mean age and source areas is significant. Mean age and source areas were mapped across the model domain to extend the results from observation wells to the entire aquifer to see where changes in concentrations of dissolved solids are expected to occur. The timing of these changes depends on accurate estimates of groundwater velocity. Calibration to tritium concentrations was used to estimate effective porosity and improve correlation between source area changes, age changes, and measured dissolved solids trends. Uncertainty in the model is due in part to spatial and temporal variations in tracer inputs, estimated tracer transport parameters, and in pumping stresses at sampling points. For tracers such as tritium, the presence of two-limbed input curves can be problematic because a single concentration can be associated with multiple disparate travel times. These shortcomings can be ameliorated by adding hydrologic and geologic detail to the model and by adding additional calibration data. However, the Salt Lake Valley model is useful even without such small-scale detail.

Utah↗

USGS2025

A new groundwater energy transport model for the MODFLOW hydrologic simulator

Heat transport in the subsurface is an important aspect of research related to the effects of a warming climate on ecological services (i.e., cold-water refugia); the development of geothermal resources for energy banking schemes (i.e., aquifer thermal energy storage [ATES]); and the effects of temperature on other aspects of groundwater quality, such as nutrient cycling. Historically, simulation of heat transport using the MODFLOW groundwater simulator and related codes was performed by scaling the input parameters of a solute-transport model to emulate heat transport. However, that approach required additional pre- and post-processing of input and output and could not account for the variation in effective thermal storage and transport properties during transient, unsaturated flow, for example. True heat-transport capabilities in the context of MODFLOW were first introduced in a variant called USG-Transport. More recently, a new groundwater energy-transport (GWE) model type has been added to MODFLOW 6, the core version of the MODFLOW hydrologic simulator. GWE supports the simulation of heat transport on structured or unstructured grids as well as within and between features of advanced packages that represent streams, lakes, multi-aquifer wells, and the unsaturated zone. GWE is integrated within MODFLOW 6 and is accessible through the FloPy Python package and the MODFLOW 6 application programming interface (API). An example simulation demonstrates conduction between grid cells through both the water and the solid aquifer material, including thermal bleeding from saturated overburden cells into a groundwater flow field.

Groundwater↗

USGS2010

Long-term increases in young-of-the-year growth of Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis and environmental influences

Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis young-of-year (YOY) growth was used as a proxy to examine the long-term response of a high-latitude fish population to changing climate from 1978 to 2004. YOY growth increased over time (r2 = 0·29) and was correlated with monthly averages of the Arctic oscillation index, air temperature, east wind speed, sea-ice concentration and river discharge with and without time lags. Overall, the most prevalent correlates to YOY growth were sea-ice concentration lagged 1 year (significant correlations in 7 months; r 2 = 0·14-0·31) and Mackenzie River discharge lagged 2 years (significant correlations in 8 months; r 2 = 0·13-0·50). The results suggest that decreased sea-ice concentrations and increased river discharge fuel primary production and that life cycles of prey species linking increased primary production to fish growth are responsible for the time lag. Oceanographic studies also suggest that sea ice concentration and fluvial inputs from the Mackenzie River are key factors influencing productivity in the Beaufort Sea. Future research should assess the possible mechanism relating sea ice concentration and river discharge to productivity at upper trophic levels.

Journal of Fish Biology↗

USGS2006

Population structure, persistence, and seasonality of autochthonous Escherichia coli in temperate, coastal forest soil from a Great Lakes watershed

The common occurrence of Escherichia coli in temperate soils has previously been reported, however, there are few studies to date to characterize its source, distribution, persistent capability and genetic diversity. In this study, undisturbed, forest soils within six randomly selected 0.5 m2 exclosure plots (covered by netting of 2.3 mm2 mesh size) were monitored from March to October 2003 for E. coli in order to describe its numerical and population characteristics. Culturable E. coli occurred in 88% of the samples collected, with overall mean counts of 16 MPN g-1, ranging from <1 to 1657 (n = 66). Escherichia coli counts did not correlate with substrate moisture content, air, or soil temperatures, suggesting that seasonality were not a strong factor in population density control. Mean E. coli counts in soil samples (n = 60) were significantly higher inside than immediately outside the exclosures; E. coli distribution within the exclosures was patchy. Repetitive extragenic palindromic polymerase chain reaction (Rep-PCR) demonstrated genetic heterogeneity of E. coli within and among exclosure sites, and the soil strains were genetically distinct from animal (E. coli) strains tested (i.e. gulls, terns, deer and most geese). These results suggest that E. coli can occur and persist for extended periods in undisturbed temperate forest soils independent of recent allochthonous input and season, and that the soil E. coli populations formed a cohesive phylogenetic group in comparison to the set of fecal strains with which they were compared. Thus, in assessing E. coli sources within a stream, it is important to differentiate background soil loadings from inputs derived from animal and human fecal contamination. ?? 2005 Society for Applied Microbiology and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Environmental Microbiology↗

USGS2007

Caribbean mangroves adjust to rising sea level through biotic controls on change in soil elevation

Aim The long-term stability of coastal ecosystems such as mangroves and salt marshes depends upon the maintenance of soil elevations within the intertidal habitat as sea level changes. We examined the rates and processes of peat formation by mangroves of the Caribbean Region to better understand biological controls on habitat stability. Location Mangrove-dominated islands on the Caribbean coasts of Belize, Honduras and Panama were selected as study sites. Methods Biological processes controlling mangrove peat formation were manipulated (in Belize) by the addition of nutrients (nitrogen or phosphorus) to Rhizophora mangle (red mangrove), and the effects on the dynamics of soil elevation were determined over a 3-year period using rod surface elevation tables (RSET) and marker horizons. Peat composition and geological accretion rates were determined at all sites using radiocarbon-dated cores. Results The addition of nutrients to mangroves caused significant changes in rates of mangrove root accumulation, which influenced both the rate and direction of change in elevation. Areas with low root input lost elevation and those with high rates gained elevation. These findings were consistent with peat analyses at multiple Caribbean sites showing that deposits (up to 10 m in depth) were composed primarily of mangrove root matter. Comparison of radiocarbon-dated cores at the study sites with a sea-level curve for the western Atlantic indicated a tight coupling between peat building in Caribbean mangroves and sea-level rise over the Holocene. Main conclusions Mangroves common to the Caribbean region have adjusted to changing sea level mainly through subsurface accumulation of refractory mangrove roots. Without root and other organic inputs, submergence of these tidal forests is inevitable due to peat decomposition, physical compaction and eustatic sea-level rise. These findings have relevance for predicting the effects of sea-level rise and biophysical processes on tropical mangrove ecosystems.

Caribbean Sea↗

USGS2005

The ratio method of estimating water resistivity and TDS from resistivity logs

It is a general belief that useful estimates of total dissolved solids concentrations of ground water cannot be made from borehole geophysical logs. A case study of estimating total dissolved solids concentration of ground water in the local area using the ratio method yielded estimates with an average error of less than 25 percent. The results do not support the hypothesis that useful estimates of total dissolved solids concentration cannot be made from borehole geophysical logs. The case study included a comparison of estimates of total dissolved solids concentration utilizing a resistivity of the mud input versus using resistivity of the mud filtrate input. Estimates made using resistivity of mud had a correlation coefficient of 0.97 whereas estimates using resistivity of mud filtrate had a correlation coefficient of only 0.27. The results from the case study suggest that at least in some cases the resistivity of the mud (Rm) produce a better estimate of the resistivity of water (Rw) in the fully flushed zone than an estimate using the resistivity of the mud filtrate Rmf. The ratio method can be easily used to estimate ground-water resistivity and total dissolved solids concentration of the formation water based only on data from resistivity logs. The advantage of the method is that data on porosity, cementation exponent, temperature, and volume of clay are not required. The method, which has been used by the oil industry to crudely estimate water resistivity, is based in part on the ratio of the resistivity of a fully water-saturated formation to the resistivity of the fully flushed zone adjacent to the annulus in a mud-filled borehole. The method, which is very robust, requires only an estimate of the resistivity of a fully water-saturated formation from a deep looking induction or resistivity log, an estimate of the resistivity of the fully flushed zone from a microresistivity or short normal log, and a measurement of resistivity of the mud or mud filtrate and its temperature.

Ground Water↗