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USGS2023

The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast

We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemic uncertainties. For example, we have improved the representation of multifault ruptures, both in terms of allowing more and less fault connectivity than in the previous models, and in sweeping over a broader range of viable models. An unprecedented level of diagnostic information has been provided for assessing the model, and the development was overseen by a 19‐member participatory review panel. Although we believe the new model embodies significant improvements and represents the best available science, we also discuss potential model limitations, including the applicability of logic tree branch weights with respect different types of hazard and risk metrics. Future improvements are also discussed, with deformation model enhancements being particularly worthy of pursuit, as well as better representation of sampling errors in the gridded seismicity components. We also plan to add time‐dependent components, and assess implications with a wider range of hazard and risk metrics.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2019

Shallow structure and geomorphology along the offshore northern San Andreas Fault, Tomales Point to Fort Ross, California

We mapped a poorly documented 35-km-long section of the northern San Andreas fault zone (NSAF) between Tomales Point and Fort Ross, California. Mapping is largely based on high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles (38 fault crossings), multibeam bathymetry, and onshore geology. NSAF strike in this section is nearly parallel to plate motion, characterized by a slight (~2°) northerly (transtensional) bend in the south between Tomales Bay and the Bodega isthmus, and a northwesterly (transpressional) ~5° bend in the north between the Bodega isthmus and Fort Ross. The southern transtensional bend is the northern part of the now-submerged, linear, ~50-km-long and 1- to 2-km-wide, "Tomales-Bodega valley." The valley floor is cut by a complex zone of subparallel, variably continuous fault strands and the deformed valley fill is an inferred mix of late Quaternary marine and nonmarine strata. In the northern part of this elongate valley, Holocene fault offset occurred on two fault strands about 740 m apart. The northern transpressional bend is characterized by narrow, elongate, asymmetric basins containing as much as 56 m of inferred latest Pleistocene to Holocene sediment. Between Bodega Head and Fort Ross, the gently dipping (~0.8°) shelf includes two large (4.8 and 5.9 km2) zones of sediment failure that we speculatively correlate with the 1906 San Francisco NSAF earthquake. Similar sediment-failure zones should be common along offshore reaches of the NSAF and other nearshore fault zones, but have apparent limited preservation potential. Onland geomorphic impacts of the mainly offshore NSAF include: (1) Northward upwarping of uplifted marine terraces in the transpressional zone north of Bodega Bay; and (2) Blocking of littoral sediment transport by uplifts on the west flank of the NSAF at Bodega Head and Tomales Point, resulting in rapidly accreting beaches and large coastal sand dune complexes.

California↗
USGS2025

Overview of The SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study using the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence

We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress‐drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress along a fault during earthquake rupture, is a critical parameter in earthquake science, impacting ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics. Spectral stress drop is commonly derived by fitting the amplitude‐spectrum shape, but estimates can vary substantially across studies for individual earthquakes. Sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Statewide (previously, Southern) California Earthquake Center our community study aims to elucidate sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake spectral stress‐drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submitted results from independent analyses. The dataset includes nearly 13,000 earthquakes ranging from M 1 to 7 during a two‐week period of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, recorded within a 1° radius. In this article, we report on 56 unique submissions received from 20 different groups, detailing spectral corner frequencies (or source durations), moment magnitudes, and estimated spectral stress drops. Methods employed encompass spectral ratio analysis, spectral decomposition and inversion, finite‐fault modeling, ground‐motion‐based approaches, and combined methods. Initial analysis reveals significant scatter across submitted spectral stress drops spanning over six orders of magnitude. However, we can identify between‐method trends and offsets within the data to mitigate this variability. Averaging submissions for a prioritized subset of 56 events shows reduced variability of spectral stress drop, indicating overall consistency in recovered spectral stress‐drop values.

California↗
USGS2004

Interpretation of the Seattle Uplift, Washington, as a passive-roof duplex

We interpret seismic lines and a wide variety of other geological and geophysical data to suggest that the Seattle uplift is a passive-roof duplex. A passive-roof duplex is bounded top and bottom by thrust faults with opposite senses of vergence that form a triangle zone at the leading edge of the advancing thrust sheet. In passive-roof duplexes the roof thrust slips only when the floor thrust ruptures. The Seattle fault is a south-dipping reverse fault forming the leading edge of the Seattle uplift, a 40-km-wide fold-and-thrust belt. The recently discovered, north-dipping Tacoma reverse fault is interpreted as a back thrust on the trailing edge of the belt, making the belt doubly vergent. Floor thrusts in the Seattle and Tacoma fault zones, imaged as discontinuous reflections, are interpreted as blind faults that flatten updip into bedding plane thrusts. Shallow monoclines in both the Seattle and Tacoma basins are interpreted to overlie the leading edges of thrust-bounded wedge tips advancing into the basins. Across the Seattle uplift, seismic lines image several shallow, short-wavelength folds exhibiting Quaternary or late Quaternary growth. From reflector truncation, several north-dipping thrust faults (splay thrusts) are inferred to core these shallow folds and to splay upward from a shallow roof thrust. Some of these shallow splay thrusts ruptured to the surface in the late Holocene. Ages from offset soils in trenches across the fault scarps and from abruptly raised shorelines indicate that the splay, roof, and floor thrusts of the Seattle and Tacoma faults ruptured about 1100 years ago.

Washington↗
USGS2008

Observation and prediction of dynamic ground strains, tilts, and torsions caused by the Mw 6.0 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake and aftershocks, derived from UPSAR array observations

The 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake (Mw 6.0) and four aftershocks (Mw 4.7-5.1) were recorded on 12 accelerograph stations of the U.S. Geological Survey Parkfield seismic array (UPSAR), an array of three-component accelerographs occupying an area of about 1 km2 located 8.8 km from the San Andreas fault. Peak horizontal acceleration and velocity at UPSAR during the mainshock were 0.45g and 27 cm/sec, respectively. We determined both time-varying and peak values of ground dilatations, shear strains, torsions, tilts, torsion rates, and tilt rates by applying a time-dependent geodetic analysis to the observed array displacement time series. Array-derived dilatations agree fairly well with point measurements made on high sample rate recordings of the Parkfield-area dilatometers (Johnston et al., 2006). Torsion Fourier amplitude spectra agree well with ground velocity spectra, as expected for propagating plane waves. A simple predictive relation, using the predicted peak velocity from the Boore-Atkinson ground-motion prediction relation (Boore and Atkinson, 2007) scaled by a phase velocity of 1 km/sec, predicts observed peak Parkfield and Chi-Chi rotations (Huang, 2003) well. However, rotation rates measured during Mw 5 Ito, Japan, events observed on a gyro sensor (Takeo, 1998) are factors of 5-60 greater than those predicted by our predictive relation. This discrepancy might be caused by a scale dependence in rotation, with rotations measured over a short baseline exceeding those measured over long baselines. An alternative hypothesis is that events having significant non-double-couple mechanisms, like the Ito events, radiate much stronger rotations than double-couple events. If this is true, then rotational observations might provide an important source of new information for monitoring seismicity in volcanic areas.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS1988

Teleseismic and near-field analysis of the Nahanni earthquakes in the Northwest Territories, Canada

The analysis of the Nahanni earthquakes of October 5, 1985 (MS 6.6), and December 23, 1985 (MS 6.9), will have important implications for the assessment of seismic hazards in intraplate environments. To maximize the information available to seismic engineers, broadband data recorded teleseismically are analyzed jointly with strong-motion data recorded in the near field. The time-domain analysis of teleseismic data yields the source mechanisms, depths, and complexities of rupture of each earthquake. Both earthquakes occurred as shallow thrusts with centroid depths (6 to 7 km) and shallowly dipping fault planes that correspond well with the aftershock distributions obtained from a local survey run by the Canadian Geological Survey. The shallow nodal plane for the October 5 earthquake dips 30° to the WSW, while the shallow nodal planes of the subevents for the December 23 earthquake dip an average of 23° to the WSW. The October 5 earthquake has an impulsive initial rupture, followed by a weak subevent of longer duration but smaller moment release. The December 23 earthquake exhibits more complexity, being comprised of three subevents of similar size. The subevent delays derived from the teleseismic analysis are used to help interpret arrivals in records of ground velocity recorded in the near field of the December 23 earthquake. The rupture geometries inferred from the joint near- and far-field analysis suggest that the rupture processes were unusually complicated and that the 2g peak that occurs late in one of the near-field records could be a localized phenomenon. Spectral analyses of the teleseismic P waves yield the following source parameters for the October 5 and December 23 earthquakes, respectively: the seismic moments are 1.2 and 1.8 × 1026 dyne-cm, the radiated energies are 1.8 and 2.8 × 1021 dyne-cm, and the dynamic stress drops are 65 and 50 bar. The acceleration source spectra of both earthquakes exhibit an intermediate slope (| üα(ω) | ∝ω) from 0.03 to 0.3 Hz, suggesting that the earthquakes represent the failure of asperities. Extrapolating the teleseismic P-wave spectra to estimate the near-field S-wave spectra yields good fits to the acceleration spectra from two strong motion records, but underestimates the spectra from a third strong motion record with the strongest, but possibly localized, accelerations.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2015

Earthquake geology of the Bulnay Fault (Mongolia)

The Bulnay earthquake of July 23, 1905 (M w 8.3-8.5), in north-central Mongolia, is one of the world's largest recorded intracontinental earthquakes and one of four great earthquakes that occurred in the region during the 20th century. The 375-km-long surface rupture of the left-lateral, strike-slip, N095°E trending Bulnay Fault associated with this earthquake is remarkable for its pronounced expression across the landscape and for the size of features produced by previous earthquakes. Our field observations suggest that in many areas the width and geometry of the rupture zone is the result of repeated earthquakes; however, in those areas where it is possible to determine that the geomorphic features are the result of the 1905 surface rupture alone, the size of the features produced by this single earthquake are singular in comparison to most other historical strike-slip surface ruptures worldwide. Along the 80 km stretch, between 97.18°E and 98.33°E, the fault zone is characterized by several meters width and the mean left-lateral 1905 offset is 8.9 ± 0.6 m with two measured cumulative offsets that are twice the 1905 slip. These observations suggest that the displacement produced during the penultimate event was similar to the 1905 slip. Morphotectonic analyses carried out at three sites along the eastern part of the Bulnay fault, allow us to estimate a mean horizontal slip rate of 3.1 ± 1.7 mm/yr over the Late Pleistocene-Holocene period. In parallel, paleoseismological investigations show evidence for two earthquakes prior to the 1905 event with recurrence intervals of ~2700-4000 years.

Bulnay Fault↗
USGS2023

3-D wave propagation simulations of Mw 6.5+ earthquakes on the Tacoma Fault, Washington state, considering the effects of topography, a geotechnical gradient, and a fault damage zone

We simulate shaking in Tacoma, Washington, and surrounding areas from M w 6.5 and 7.0 earthquakes on the Tacoma fault. Ground motions are directly modeled up to 2.5 Hz using kinematic, finite‐fault sources; a 3D seismic velocity model considering regional geology; and a model mesh with 30 m sampling at the ground surface. In addition, we explore how adjustments to the seismic velocity model affect predicted shaking over a range of periods. These adjustments include the addition of a region‐specific geotechnical gradient, surface topography, and a fault damage zone. We find that the simulated shaking tends to be near estimates from empirical ground‐motion models (GMMs). However, long‐period ( T = 5.0 s) shaking within the Tacoma basin is typically underpredicted by the GMMs. The fit between simulated and GMM‐derived short‐period ( T = 0.5 s) shaking is significantly improved with the addition of the geotechnical gradient. From comparing different M w 6.5 earthquake scenarios, we also find that the response of the Tacoma basin is sensitive to the azimuth of incoming seismic waves. In adding surface topography to the simulation, we find that average ground motion is similar to that produced from the nontopography model. However, shaking is often amplified at topographic highs and deamplified at topographic lows, and the wavefield undergoes extensive scattering. Adding a fault damage zone has the effect of amplifying short‐period shaking adjacent to the fault, while reducing far‐field shaking. Intermediate‐period shaking is amplified within the Tacoma basin, likely due to enhanced surface‐wave generation attributable to the fault damage zone waveguide. When applied in the same model, the topography and fault damage zone adjustments often enhance or reduce the effects of one another, adding further complexity to the wavefield. These results emphasize the importance of improving near‐surface velocity model resolution as waveform simulations progress toward higher frequencies.

Washington↗
USGS2022

Seismic background noise levels across the continental United States from USArray Transportable Array: The influence of geology and geography

Since 2004, the most complete estimate of background noise levels across the continental U.S. was attained using 61 broadband seismic stations to calculate power spectral density (PSD) probability density functions. To improve seismic noise estimates across the U.S., we examine vertical component seismic data from the EarthScope USArray Transportable Array seismic network that rolled across the U.S. and southeastern Canada between 2004 and 2015 and form a large (10 TB) PSD database from 1679 stations that contains no smoothing or binning of the spectral estimates. Including station outages, our database has a mean of 98.9% data completeness, and we present maps showing the spatial and temporal variability of seismic noise in six bands of interest between 0.2- and 75-s period. At 0.2 s period, seismic noise across the eastern U.S. is predominantly anthropogenically generated and may be subsequently amplified more than 20 decibels in the sandy and water-saturated sediments of the southeastern U.S. Coastal Plain and Mississippi Embayment. In these sediments, 1 s noise shows similar amplification and is generated through a variety of mechanisms including cultural activity throughout Kentucky and the southeastern Appalachian Mountains, lake waves around the Great Lakes, and ocean waves throughout New England, the Pacific Northwest, and Florida. Both 0.2 and 1 s noise levels are the lowest in the Intermountain West portion of the U.S. We attribute this to a combination of installations on crystalline rocks and reduced population density. Finally, we find that sensors emplaced in sandy, water-saturated sediments observe median, diurnal variations in vertical component power at 18 to 75 s period, which we infer arise through local deformation driven by pressure variations. Ultimately, our results underscore that for shallow (<5 m depth) sensor installation, bedrock provides superior broadband noise performance compared to unconsolidated sediments.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2022

Earthquake early warning for estimating floor shaking levels of tall buildings

This article investigates methods to improve earthquake early warning (EEW) predictions of shaking levels for residents of tall buildings. In the current U.S. Geological Survey ShakeAlert EEW system, regions far from an epicenter will not receive alerts due to low predicted ground‐shaking intensities. However, residents of tall buildings in those areas may still experience significant shaking due to the acceleration amplification caused by tall buildings’ dynamic behavior, as recently experienced by residents of the 52‐story building in downtown Los Angeles (DTLA) during the 2019 M 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake. Using more than 400 recorded response data acquired from 77 instrumented buildings in California, here we compare the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) P‐58 and American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 7‐16 simplified equations for peak floor acceleration (PFA), finding that the ASCE estimation is close to the median of data recorded in large and long‐distance events, whereas the current FEMA estimation is not suitable. In the second part of this article, four instrumented tall buildings in DTLA are extensively studied, and the performance of the simplified and response spectrum (RS) methods giving both an estimation of the free‐field horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and pseudospectral acceleration is evaluated. The results show that the RS method is as accurate as the response history analysis as long as the ground‐motion RS is accurate, whereas the ASCE 7‐16 prediction is conservative. However, when ground‐motion RS or PGA is estimated for DTLA using a ground‐motion model (GMM), the performance of the RS method significantly degrades due to underestimation by the GMM at long periods. The results of this study imply that a nonergodic GMM, which may give more accurate prediction in Los Angeles, could improve the results for PFA when the building’s behavior is dominated by a few long‐period fundamental modes, as is the case for the 52‐story building in DTLA.

California↗
USGS2007

Seismicity associated with the Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake of 26 December 2004

The U.S. Geological Survey/National Earthquake Information Center (USGS/ NEIC) had computed origins for 5000 earthquakes in the Sumatra-Andaman Islands region in the first 36 weeks after the Sumatra-Andaman Islands mainshock of 26 December 2004. The cataloging of earthquakes of mb (USGS) 5.1 and larger is essentially complete for the time period except for the first half-day following the 26 December mainshock, a period of about two hours following the Nias earthquake of 28 March 2005, and occasionally during the Andaman Sea swarm of 26-30 January 2005. Moderate and larger (mb ???5.5) aftershocks are absent from most of the deep interplate thrust faults of the segments of the Sumatra-Andaman Islands subduction zone on which the 26 December mainshock occurred, which probably reflects nearly complete release of elastic strain on the seismogenic interplate-thrust during the mainshock. An exceptional thrust-fault source offshore of Banda Aceh may represent a segment of the interplate thrust that was bypassed during the mainshock. The 26 December mainshock triggered a high level of aftershock activity near the axis of the Sunda trench and the leading edge of the overthrust Burma plate. Much near-trench activity is intraplate activity within the subducting plate, but some shallow-focus, near-trench, reverse-fault earthquakes may represent an unusual seismogenic release of interplate compressional stress near the tip of the overriding plate. The interplate-thrust Nias earthquake of 28 March 2005, in contrast to the 26 December aftershock sequence, was followed by many interplate-thrust aftershocks along the length of its inferred rupture zone.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2021

Survey of fragile geologic features and their quasi-static earthquake ground-motion constraints, southern Oregon

Fragile geologic features (FGFs), which are extant on the landscape but vulnerable to earthquake ground shaking, may provide geological constraints on the intensity of prior shaking. These empirical constraints are particularly important in regions such as the Pacific Northwest that have not experienced a megathrust earthquake in written history. Here, we describe our field survey of FGFs in southern Oregon. We documented 58 features with fragile geometric characteristics, as determined from field measurements of size and strength, historical photographs, and light detection and ranging point clouds. Among the surveyed FGFs, sea stacks have particular advantages for use as ground‐motion constraints: (1) they are frequently tall and thin; (2) they are widely distributed parallel to the coast, proximal to the trench and the likely megathrust rupture surface; and (3) they are formed by sea cliff retreat, meaning that their ages may be coarsely estimated as a function of distance from the coast. About 40% of the surveyed sea stacks appear to have survived multiple Cascadia megathrust earthquakes. Using a quasi‐static analysis, we estimate the minimum horizontal ground accelerations that could fracture the rock pillars. We provide context for the quasi‐static results by comparing them with predictions from kinematic simulations and ground‐motion prediction equations. Among the sea stacks old enough to have survived multiple megathrust earthquakes ( n = 16), eight yield breaking accelerations lower than the predictions, although they generally overlap within uncertainty. FGFs with the lowest breaking accelerations are distributed uniformly over 130 km of coastline. Results for inland features, such as speleothems, are in close agreement with the predictions. We conclude that FGFs show promise for investigating both past earthquake shaking and its spatial variability along the coasts of Oregon and Washington, where sea stacks are often prevalent. Future work can refine our understanding of FGF age and evolution.

Oregon↗
USGS2009

San Andreas fault geometry at Desert Hot Springs, California, and its effects on earthquake hazards and groundwater

The Mission Creek and Banning faults are two of the principal strands of the San Andreas fault zone in the northern Coachella Valley of southern California. Structural characteristics of the faults affect both regional earthquake hazards and local groundwater resources. We use seismic, gravity, and geological data to characterize the San Andreas fault zone in the vicinity of Desert Hot Springs. Seismic images of the upper 500 m of the Mission Creek fault at Desert Hot Springs show multiple fault strands distributed over a 500 m wide zone, with concentrated faulting within a central 200 m wide area of the fault zone. High-velocity (up to 5000 m=sec) rocks on the northeast side of the fault are juxtaposed against a low-velocity (<2000 m=sec) basin on the southwest side within the upper few hundred meters. Near-surface strands of the Mission Creek fault dip steeply southwestward and northeastward and merge at depth to form a narrower, steeply southwestward-dipping or near-vertical (80?? to 90??) fault zone. The Banning fault, in contrast, dips northeastward (45?? to 70??) toward the Mission Creek fault, and the two faults likely merge into a single San Andreas fault zone at depth, indicating a transtensional fault system. Mainshock hypocenters for two of the historically largest (M >6.0) earthquakes in the area (in 1948 and 1986) occurred at or near the depths (~10 to 12 km) of the merged (San Andreas) fault. Large-magnitude earthquakes that nucleate at or below the merged fault will likely generate strong shaking from guided waves along both fault zones and from amplified seismic waves in the low-velocity basin between the two fault zones. The Mission Creek fault zone is a groundwater barrier with the top of the water table varying by 60 m in depth and the aquifer varying by about 50 m in thickness across a 200 m wide zone of concentrated faulting.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Neotectonics and paleoseismology of the Limón and pedro miguel faults in Panamá: earthquake hazard to the Panamá canal

We present new geologic, tectonic geomorphic, and geochronologic data on the slip rate, timing, and size of past surface ruptures for the right-lateral Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults in central Panam??. These faults are part of a system of conjugate faults that accommodate the internal deformation of Panam?? resulting from the ongoing collision of Central and South America. There have been at least three surface ruptures on the Lim??n fault in the past 950-1400 years, with the most recent during the past 365 years. Displacement in this young event is at least 1.2 m (based on trenching) and may be 1.6-2 m (based on small channel offsets). Awell-preserved 4.2 m offset suggests that the penultimate event also sustained significant displacement. The Holocene slip rate has averaged about 6 mm=yr, based on a 30-m offset terrace riser incised into a 5-ka abandoned channel. The Pedro Miguel fault has sustained three surface ruptures in the past 1600 years, the most recent being the 2 May 1621 earthquake that partially destroyed Panam?? Viejo. At least 2.1 m of slip occurred in this event near the Canal, with geomorphic offsets suggesting 2.5-3 m. The historic Camino de Cruces is offset 2.8 m, indicating multimeter displacement over at least 20 km of fault length. Channel offsets of 100-400 m, together with a climate-induced incision model, suggest a Late Quaternary slip rate of about 5 mm=yr, which is consistent with the paleoseismic results. Comparison of the timing of surface ruptures between the Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults suggests that large earthquakes may rupture both faults with 2-3 m of displacement for over 40 km, such as is likely in earthquakes in the M 7 range. Altogether, our observations indicate that the Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults represent a significant seismic hazard to central Panam?? and, specifically, to the Canal and Panam?? City.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS1990

Source parameters and effects of bandwidth and local geology on high- frequency ground motions observed for aftershocks of the northeastern Ohio earthquake of 31 January 1986

A 10-station array (GEOS) yielded recordings of exceptional bandwidth (400 sps) and resolution (up to 96 dB) for the aftershocks of the moderate ( m b ≈ 4.9) earthquake that occurred on 31 January 1986 near Painesville, Ohio. Nine aftershocks were recorded with seismic moments ranging between 9 × 10 16 and 3 × 10 19 dyne-cm ( M w : 0.6 to 2.3). The two largest aftershocks (depth 5.3, 5.6 km; oblique right slip, rake ≈30°, strike ≈N25°E) yielded seismic signals above background noise at frequencies as high as 130 Hz at epicentral distances up to 17 km. The aftershock recordings at a site underlain by ≈8 m of lakeshore sediments show significant levels of high-frequency soil amplification of vertical motion at frequencies near 8, 20, and 70 Hz. Viscoelastic models for P and SV waves incident at the base of the sediments yield estimates of vertical P -wave response consistent with the observed high-frequency site resonances, but suggest additional detailed shear-wave logs are needed to account for observed S -wave response. Peak acceleration values obtained from the broadband recordings are about two and four times as large as those that would be recorded on strong-motion recorders or short-period networks with upper bandwidth limits of 30 and 15 Hz, respectively. Attenuation-corrected acceleration spectra are used to reduce the influence of high-frequency (up to 100 Hz) local site effects on corner frequency estimates. The moment versus source radius trend inferred for events with moments as small as 9 × 10 16 dyne-cm, based on the Brune source model, extends previous relations inferred for the central United States, shows little evidence for a minimum source radius, and suggests that stress drops for the smaller events ( M 0 < 10 19 dyne-cm) decrease with decreasing moment.

Ohio↗
USGS2024

Precariously balanced rocks in northern New York and Vermont, U.S.A.: Ground-motion constraints and implications for fault sources

Precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) and other fragile geologic features have the potential to constrain the maximum intensity of earthquake ground shaking over millennia. Such constraints may be particularly useful in the eastern United States (U.S.), where few earthquake‐source faults are reliably identified, and moderate earthquakes can be felt at great distances due to low seismic attenuation. We describe five PBRs in northern New York and Vermont—a region of elevated seismic hazard associated with historical seismicity. These boulders appear to be among the most fragile PBRs in the region, based on reports from hobbyists. The PBRs are glacial erratics, best evidenced by glacial striations on bedrock pedestals. The pedestals themselves are locally high knobs, often situated on regionally high topography; this setting limits soil development and indicates that any outwash deposits were likely ephemeral. As a result, PBR ages can be reliably established by the retreat of the last continental ice sheet, ∼15–13 ka. To quantify the fragility of the PBRs, we surveyed them with ground‐based light detection and ranging and calculated geometric parameters from the point clouds, field observations, and seismic responses. Preliminary validation of the 2023 time‐independent U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) shows that the existence of PBRs is generally consistent with the median site‐specific hazard curves. Only the Blue Ridge Road site suggests a modest reduction in hazard. To visualize the ensemble of data, we mapped the minimum permissible distance to potential source faults around each PBR site as a function of source magnitude by using the ground‐motion models from the 2023 NSHM. Viewed in this manner, our data are consistent with potential M ∼6.5 earthquake‐source faults in many parts of the Lake Champlain Valley and northern Adirondack Mountains. Our work illustrates a potential pathway for better constraining earthquake‐source faults in regions of cryptic faults.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2024

SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study: How spectral fitting approaches influence measured source parameters

Spectral source parameters used to estimate an earthquake’s stress drop (Δσ) can vary significantly across measurement approaches. The Statewide California Earthquake Center/U.S. Geological Survey Community Stress-Drop Validation Study was initiated to compare source parameter estimates, focusing initially on a dataset from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. As part of that validation effort, here we focus on one potential source of uncertainty: whether spectral fitting approaches alone, applied to a common set of spectra from the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence result in different source parameter estimates. By using a common set of benchmark spectra analyzed across a consistent frequency band of 1–40 Hz, we eliminate many sources of variability. A subgroup of validation study participants volunteered to estimate the low-frequency displacement (Ω0) and corner frequency ( f c ) by fitting a smooth function to benchmark displacement spectra. Participants used linear- or log-sampled spectra, assumed a Brune or Boatwright spectral model, and applied different misfit criteria. We compare 17 approaches used to estimate Ω0, f c , and Δσ for 54 earthquake spectra. Our results reveal that 35% of events have Δσ estimates within a factor of two, whereas others exhibit variations exceeding an order of magnitude. The variability in Ω0 and f c can largely be attributed to whether a spectrum is consistent with the smooth function of an idealized simple crack model. The trade-off between Ω0 and f c may be more pronounced when using linearly sampled spectra, as higher frequency spectral bumps control the fits. As expected, methods that assumed a Boatwright model tended to have lower Ω0 and somewhat higher f c compared to those assuming a Brune model, although resulting Δσ estimates are similar. When compared to the overall validation study results, the fitting approach alone may account for between 5% and 90% (25% on average) of the total variability in spectral Δσ.

California↗
USGS2004

The offshore Palos Verdes fault zone near San Pedro, Southern California

High-resolution seismic-reflection data are combined with a variety of other geophysical and geological data to interpret the offshore structure and earthquake hazards of the San Pedro shelf, near Los Angeles, California. Prominent structures investigated include the Wilmington graben, the Palos Verdes fault zone, various faults below the west part of the San Pedro shelf and slope, and the deep-water San Pedro basin. The structure of the Palos Verdes fault zone changes markedly along strike southeastward across the San Pedro shelf and slope. Under the north part of the shelf, this fault zone includes several strands, with the main strand dipping west. Under the slope, the main fault strands exhibit normal separation and mostly dip east. To the southeast near Lasuen Knoll, the Palos Verdes fault zone locally is low angle, but elsewhere near this knoll, the fault dips steeply. Fresh seafloor scarps near Lasuen Knoll indicate recent fault movement. We explain the observed structural variation along the Palos Verdes fault zone as the result of changes in strike and fault geometry along a master right-lateral strike-slip fault at depth. Complicated movement along this deep fault zone is suggested by the possible wave-cut terraces on Lasuen Knoll, which indicate subaerial exposure during the last sea level lowstand and subsequent subsidence of the knoll. Modeling of aeromagnetic data indicates a large magnetic body under the west part of the San Pedro shelf and upper slope. We interpret this body to be thick basalt of probable Miocene age. This basalt mass appears to have affected the pattern of rock deformation, perhaps because the basalt was more competent during deformation than the sedimentary rocks that encased the basalt. West of the Palos Verdes fault zone, other northwest-striking faults deform the outer shelf and slope. Evidence for recent movement along these faults is equivocal, because we lack age dates on deformed or offset sediment.

California↗