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USGS2020

Themes of contemporary inland fisheries goals

Goals are important for the effective execution of public trust responsibilities by state inland fisheries bureaus, but formulating meaningful goals is not simple. Often bureaus look to their past and to their sister bureaus in neighboring states when crafting goals for their own freshwater resources. Herein, we review the goal themes of fisheries bureaus using publicly available documents and guided by previous literature. We test whether goals exhibit geographic patterns presuming that differences and similarities in climate, natural resources, and people determine, to various degrees, the goal themes across the U.S. We identified nine distinct goal themes but found that they do not form clear geographic patterns, which contrasts with a similar analysis conducted in the 1970s. Since the 1970s, fisheries bureau goals have expanded and regionalism in goals has vanished. We suggest that changes in perspectives and communication technology, as well as provisions within nationwide funding mechanisms have led to goals becoming more homogenous across the U.S. and more diverse within each bureau.

Fisheries Magazine↗

USGS2011

Evidence of shift in C 4 species range in central Argentina during the late Holocene

Aim Millennial-scale biogeographic changes are well understood in many parts of the world, but little is known about long-term vegetation dynamics in subtropical regions. Here we investigate shifts in C 3 /C 4 plant abundance occurred in central Argentina during the past few millennia Methods We determined present day soil organic matter δ 13 C signatures of grasslands, shrublands and woodlands, containing different mixtures of C 3 and C 4 plants. We measured past changes in the relative cover of C 3 /C 4 plants by comparing δ 13 C values in soil profiles with present day δ 13 C signatures. We analyzed 14 C activity in soil depths that showed major changes in vegetation. Results Present day relative cover of C 3 /C 4 plants determines whole ecosystem δ 13 C signatures integrated as litter and superficial soil organic matter (R 2 = 0.78; p < 0.01). Deeper soils show a consistent shift in δ 13 C, indicating a continuous replacement of C 4 by C 3 plants since 3,870 (±210) YBP. During this period, the relative abundance of C 3 plants increased 32% (average across sites) with significant changes being observed in all studied ecosystems. Conclusions Our results show that C 4 species were more abundant in the past, but C 3 species became dominant during the late Holocene. We identified increases in the relative C 3 /C 4 cover in grasslands, shrublands and woodlands, suggesting a physiological basis for changes in vegetation. The replacement of C 4 by C 3 plants coincided with changes in climate towards colder and wetter conditions and could represent a climatically driven shift in the C 4 species optimum range.

Plant and Soil↗

USGS2023

Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome

Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2009

Temporal latitudinal-gradient dynamics and tropical instability of deep-sea species diversity

A benthic microfaunal record from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean over the past four glacial-interglacial cycles was investigated to understand temporal dynamics of deep-sea latitudinal species diversity gradients (LSDGs). The results demonstrate unexpected instability and high amplitude fluctuations of species diversity in the tropical deep ocean that are correlated with orbital-scale oscillations in global climate: Species diversity is low during glacial and high during interglacial periods. This implies that climate severely influences deep-sea diversity, even at tropical latitudes, and that deep-sea LSDGs, while generally present for the last 36 million years, were weakened or absent during glacial periods. Temporally dynamic LSDGs and unstable tropical diversity require reconsideration of current ecological hypotheses about the generation and maintenance of biodiversity as they apply to the deep sea, and underscore the potential vulnerability and conservation importance of tropical deep-sea ecosystems.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2016

Expansion of forest stands into tundra in the Noatak National Preserve, northwest Alaska

Temperatures across the northern regions of North America have been increasing for 150 years, and forests have responded to this increase. In the Noatak National Preserve in Alaska, white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) forests reach their northern limit, occurring primarily on well-drained sites and as gallery forests along streams. Rolling plateaus of tundra separate the white spruce forests into disjunct stands. We examined patterns of tree age, tree growth, and tree encroachment into tundra ecosystems in six stands along the Agashashok River. Warming over the past 150 years appears to have increased tree growth and resulted in forest expansion into adjacent tundra ecosystems. The forest/tundra ecotone shifted by about 80 to 100 m into the tundra in the past 200 years, as evidenced by declining maximum tree age with distance towards the tundra. The decadal-scale pattern of tree establishment at the farthest extent of trees into the tundra (the tundra-forest ecotone) correlated with the detrended growth index for trees within the forests; climate conditions that led to higher tree growth appeared to foster tree establishment in the tundra. This recent forest expansion has occurred across topographic boundaries, from well-drained soils on slopes onto poorly drained, flatter areas of tundra. Further expansion of the forests may be limited by more severe wind exposure and poor drainage that make the majority of tundra less suitable for trees.

Écoscience↗

USGS2005

Effects of emission reductions at the Hayden powerplant on precipitation, snowpack, and surface-water chemistry in the Mount Zirkel Wilderness Area, Colorado, 1995-2003

Precipitation, snowpack, and surface-water samples collected during 1995-2003 were analyzed to evaluate the effects of emission reductions at the Hayden powerplant on water chemistry in the Mount Zirkel Wilderness Area. The Hayden powerplant, one of two large coal-fired powerplants in the Yampa Valley, was retrofitted with control systems during late 1998 and 1999 to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide--the primary precursors of haze and acidic precipitation. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, evaluated three water-chemistry data sets: wet-only precipitation chemistry from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program, snowpack chemistry from the Rocky Mountain snowpack network, and surface-water chemistry from a U.S. Geological Survey long-term lakes monitoring program. Concentrations and deposition rates of selected constituents were compared for the periods before and after emission reductions at the Hayden powerplant. Data collected during 1995-98 were used to represent the pre-control period, and data collected during 2000-2003 were used to represent the post-control period. Ten stations in the National Atmospheric Deposition Program were evaluated including two that were directly downwind from the Hayden powerplant (Dry Lake and Buffalo Pass) and eight that were upwind or more distant (more than 100 kilometers) from the powerplant. Precipitation amount at all 10 precipitation stations was lower in the post-control period than the pre-control period as a result of a regional drought that persisted during the post-control period. In contrast to precipitation amount, there was no consistent pattern of change in sulfate concentrations between periods, indicating that the drought did not have a concentrating effect on sulfate or that trends in regional sulfur dioxide emissions masked its influence. Sulfate concentrations increased at three stations between periods, remained the same at three stations, and decreased at four stations. The largest change in average annual sulfate concentrations occurred at the two precipitation stations downwind from the Hayden powerplant, decreasing by 3.3 microequivalents per liter at Dry Lake and by 2.2 microequivalents per liter at Buffalo Pass. Declines in annual sulfate deposition also were greater at Dry Lake (3.4 kilograms per hectare) and Buffalo Pass (3.3 kilograms per hectare) than at the other stations, which ranged from 0.2 to 1.7 kilograms per hectare. These results indicate that emission reductions at the Hayden powerplant have been a factor in declines in atmospheric deposition of sulfate downwind from the powerplant. Nitrate, ammonium, and base-cation concentrations, in contrast to sulfate, were higher in the post-control period than the pre-control period at all 10 stations, most likely due to a concentrating effect of the drought. Twenty-two snowpack sites in the Rocky Mountain snowpack network were evaluated including 4 sites that were located directly downwind from the Hayden powerplant and 18 sites that were upwind or more distant (as much as 200 kilometers) from the powerplant. The water content of the snowpack at maximum accumulation was lower in the post-control period than the pre-control period, reflecting the regional drought. Although there were small declines in snowpack sulfate concentrations at the downwind stations between the pre- and post-control periods, the difference was not statistically significant, indicating emission reductions had a weaker effect on snowpack chemistry than precipitation chemistry. Sulfate deposition decreased at all four downwind sites in the post-control period, primarily reflecting both lower water content and concentrations in the snowpack. As observed at the precipitation stations, nitrate, ammonium, and base-cation concentrations at all 22 sites were significantly higher in the post-control period than the pre-control period, reflecting drier conditions caused by drought. The chemistry at six surface-water sites in and near the Mount Zirkel Wilderness Area and five control sites in the Flat Tops Wilderness Area was examined. No response to emission reductions was detectable in chemistry of the surface water in the Mount Zirkel Wilderness Area. Detection of a response to changes in emissions and deposition in the lake-chemistry data may have been confounded by drought conditions during the period after emission reductions occurred. The magnitude of reduced sulfate in atmospheric deposition indicates that at some time in the future, a reduction in lake sulfate attributable to Yampa Valley emission reduction should be detectable. The trend of decreasing sulfur dioxide emissions throughout western North America over the past 20 years is reflected in reduced concentrations of sulfate in lakes that were part of this study, as well as other lakes in the Rocky Mountains. However, detection of the surface-water response to changes in deposition requires a sufficiently long record to minimize effects of climate variability and to allow for lag time as sulfate moves through storage in soil, ground water, and lake reservoirs.

Colorado↗

USGS2014

Niche restriction and conservatism in a neotropical psittacine: the case of the Puerto Rican parrot

The factors which govern species‘ distribution and abundance are myriad, and together constitute the ecological niche of a given species. Because abiotic factors are arguably the most profound of the factors influencing niche boundaries and thus, species distributions, substantial changes in either climatic or habitat-related parameters can be expected to produce interrelated and profound niche shifts. Habitat loss and degradation can also effectively induce a de facto climate change by forcing populations to relocate to environmentally suboptimal habitats. Populations experiencing niche shifts due to range restrictions and geographic isolation become subject to a suite of factors that may act synergistically to amplify deleterious ecological effects of habitat loss. These factors tend to exert a greater influence on populations of rare or endemic species with inherently restricted ranges. The Puerto Rican parrot (Amazona vittata) is an example of a tropical, insular, endemic and critically-endangered species that has suffered from extensive habitat loss and degradation over the past century, resulting in a single relict wild population restricted for more than 70 years to the montane rainforest of the Luquillo Mountains in northeastern Puerto Rico. In this chapter, we examine the current ecological situation of this geographically and demographically isolated parrot population by reviewing the history of landscape-level changes in and around the Luquillo Mountains, and concurrent biotic and abiotic limiting factors in relation to both historical population trajectory and current prognosis for species recovery. We used a decade (2000-2009) of empirical data on parrot fledgling survival together with long-term climatological data to model effects of local climate on fledgling survival and gain insights into its influence on population growth. We also modeled hypothetical survival of parrot fledglings in the lowlands surrounding the Luquillo Mountains, areas currently deforested but previously occupied by parrots, to illustrate both quantitative and qualitative losses of reproductive habitat for the species. We illustrate and systematically discuss how progressive and sustained changes in landscape composition and associated limiting factors have effectively shifted and restricted the ecological niche of this species, and how this complex suite of ecological processes affects the Puerto Rican parrot in the Luquillo Mountains. Our niche restriction hypothesis is supported by the demographic response of Puerto Rican parrots recently (2006-2009) reintroduced in the lower elevation karst forest of northwestern Puerto Rico. Based on our findings, we present conservation strategies aimed at promoting the recovery of the species both in the Luquillo Mountains and elsewhere in Puerto Rico. Finally, we address the relevance of our findings to conservation of other endangered species, particularly those threatened by both habitat loss and climate change.

Book chapter↗

USGS2025

Pediment formation and subsequent erosion in Gale crater: Clues to the climate history of Mars

Evidence of paleo-rivers, fans, deltas, lakes, and channel networks across Mars has prompted much debate about what climate conditions would permit the formation of these surface water derived features. Pediments, gently sloping erosional surfaces of low relief developed in bedrock, have also been identified on Mars. On Earth, these erosional landforms, often thought to be created by overland flow and shallow channelized runoff, are typically capped by fluvial sediments, and thus in exceptionally arid regions, pediments are interpreted to record past wet periods. Here we document the Greenheugh pediment in Gale crater, exploiting the observational capability of the Curiosity rover. The absence of a fluvial cap suggests that the pediment was likely cut by wind erosion, not fluvial processes. The pediment was then buried by an aeolian deposit (Stimson sandstone) that mantled the lower footslopes of Aeolis Mons (informally known as Mt. Sharp). This burial terminated active wind erosion, preserving the pediment surface (as an angular unconformity). Groundwater was present prior-to, during, and shortly after Stimson deposition, perhaps contributing to lithification and certainly to early diagenesis. Post lithification, wind erosion first cut canyons in the northern most footslopes (north of Vera Rubin ridge). Unlithified gravels were deposited in these canyons, likely due to runoff from Mt. Sharp. Boulder-rich fluvial and debris flow deposits built a > 70 m thick sequence (Gediz Vallis ridge) on the southern Greenheugh pediment. Continued wind erosion left elevated patches of gravel on the northern footslopes, and exposure age dating shows that erosion essentially ceased before 1 Ga (but possibly much earlier). Erosion to the south led to emergence of Vera Rubin ridge, retreat of the Greenheugh pediment, and the formation of Glen Torridon valley. Hence, this footslope environment of Mt. Sharp records climate-driven periods of wind erosion, aeolian deposition (and groundwater activity), surface runoff and sediment deposition, followed by further significant wind erosion that declined to present very slow rates. This likely occurred during the late Hesperian and possibly into the Amazonian.

Icarus↗

USGS2021

Ecological engineering with oysters enhances coastal resilience efforts

Coastal areas are especially vulnerable to habitat loss, sea-level rise, and other climate change effects. Oyster-dominated eco-engineered reefs have been promoted as integral components of engineered habitats enhancing coastal resilience through provision of numerous ecological, morphological, and socio-economic services. However, the assessed ‘success’ of these eco-engineered oyster reefs remains variable across projects and locations, with their general efficacy in promoting coastal resilience, along with related services, often mixed at best. Understanding factors influencing the success of these eco-engineered habitats as valuable coastal management tools could greatly inform related future efforts. Here, we review past studies incorporating reef-building oysters for coastal resilience and enhanced ecosystem services. Our aims are to better understand their utility and limitations, along with critical knowledge gaps to better advance future applicability. Success depends largely on site selection, informed by physical, chemical and biological factors, and adjacent habitats and bottom types. Better understanding of oyster metapopulation dynamics, tolerance and adaptation to changing conditions, and interactions with adjacent habitats will help to better identify suitable locations, and design more effective eco-engineered reefs. These eco-engineered reefs provide a useful tool to assist in developing coastal resilience in the face of climate change and sea level rise.

Ecological Engineering↗

USGS2016

Cenozoic sea level and the rise of modern rimmed atolls

Sea-level records from atolls, potentially spanning the Cenozoic, have been largely overlooked, in part because the processes that control atoll form (reef accretion, carbonate dissolution, sediment transport, vertical motion) are complex and, for many islands, unconstrained on million-year timescales. Here we combine existing observations of atoll morphology and corelog stratigraphy from Enewetak Atoll with a numerical model to (1) constrain the relative rates of subsidence, dissolution and sedimentation that have shaped modern Pacific atolls and (2) construct a record of sea level over the past 8.5 million years. Both the stratigraphy from Enewetak Atoll (constrained by a subsidence rate of ~ 20 m/Myr) and our numerical modeling results suggest that low sea levels (50–125 m below present), and presumably bi-polar glaciations, occurred throughout much of the late Miocene, preceding the warmer climate of the Pliocene, when sea level was higher than present. Carbonate dissolution through the subsequent sea-level fall that accompanied the onset of large glacial cycles in the late Pliocene, along with rapid highstand constructional reef growth, likely drove development of the rimmed atoll morphology we see today.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗

USGS2011

Effort explores 130 Million years of Antarctic paleoenvironment

Antarctic climate history has been dominated by events and turning points with causes that are poorly understood. To fill the gaps in our knowledges new effort is underway in the international geologic community to acquire and coordinate the circum‐Antarctic geologic data needed to derive and model paleoenvironments of the past 130 m.y. The effort, which focuses principally on using shallow (<100 m) stratigraphic drilling and coring to acquire the geologic data, is being led by the Antarctic Offshore Stratigraphy Project (ANTOSTRAT), a group that works under the aegis of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). About 40 scientists from 12 countries met this past summer in Wellington, New Zealand, at an ANTOSTRAT meeting to discuss strategies for implementing the desired paleoenvironmental field and modeling studies. The meeting was held in conjunction with the 8th International Symposium on Antarctic Earth Sciences.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2009

Water Quality and Hydrology of Whitefish (Bardon) Lake, Douglas County, Wisconsin, With Special Emphasis on Responses of an Oligotrophic Seepage Lake to Changes in Phosphorus Loading and Water Level

Whitefish Lake, which is officially named Bardon Lake, is an oligotrophic, soft-water seepage lake in northwestern Wisconsin, and classified by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources as an Outstanding Resource Water. Ongoing monitoring of the lake demonstrated that its water quality began to degrade (increased phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations) around 2002 following a period of high water level. To provide a better understanding of what caused the degradation in water quality, and provide information to better understand the lake and protect it from future degradation, the U.S. Geological Survey did a detailed study from 2004 to 2008. The goals of the study were to describe the past and present water quality of the lake, quantify water and phosphorus budgets for the lake, simulate the potential effects of changes in phosphorus inputs on the lake's water quality, analyze changes in the water level in the lake since 1900, and relate the importance of changes in climate and changes in anthropogenic (human-induced) factors in the watershed to the water quality of the lake. Since 1998, total phosphorus concentrations increased from near the 0.005-milligrams per liter (mg/L) detection limit to about 0.010 mg/L in 2006, and then decreased slightly in 2007-08. During this time, chlorophyll a concentrations and Secchi depths remained relatively stable at about 1.5 micrograms per liter (ug/L) and 26 feet, respectively. Whitefish Lake is typically classified as oligotrophic. Because the productivity in Whitefish Lake is limited by phosphorus, phosphorus budgets were constructed for the lake. Because it was believed that much of its phosphorus comes from the atmosphere, phosphorus deposition was measured in this study. Phosphorus input from the atmosphere was greater than computed based on previously reported wetfall phosphorus concentrations. The concentrations and deposition rates can be used to estimate atmospheric loading in future lake studies. The average annual load of phosphorus to the lake was 232 pounds: 56 percent from precipitation, 27 percent from groundwater, and 16 percent from septic systems. During a series of dry years (low water levels) and wet years (high water levels), the inputs of water and phosphorus ranged by only 10-13 percent. Results from the Canfield and Bachmann eutrophication model and Carlson trophic-state-index equations demonstrated that the lake directly responds to changes in external phosphorus loading, with percent change in chlorophyll a being similar to the percent change in loading and the change in total phosphorus and Secchi depth being slightly smaller. Therefore, changes in phosphorus loading should affect the water quality of the lake. Specific scenarios that simulated the effects of anthropogenic (human-induced) and climatic (water level) changes demonstrated that: surface-water inflow (runoff) based on current development has little effect on pelagic water quality, changes in the inputs from septic systems and development in the watershed could have a large effect on water quality, and decreases in water and phosphorus loading during periods of low water level had little effect on water quality. Sustained high water levels, resulting from several wet years with relatively high water and phosphorus input, however, could cause a small degradation in water quality. Although high water levels may be associated with a degradation in water quality, it appears that anthropogenic changes in the watershed may be more important in affecting the future water quality of the lake. Fluctuations in water levels since 1998 are representative of what has occurred since 1900, with fluctuations of about 3 feet occurring about every 15 years. Based on total phosphorus concentrations inferred from sediment core analysis, there has been little long-term change in water quality and there has been a slight deterioration in water quality following most periods of high water levels. There

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS1972

Factors contributing to unusually low runoff during the period 1962-68 in the Concho River Basin, Texas

To determine the reasons for the unusually low runoff in the Concho River basin during the period 1962-68, the physical developments and climatic changes in the basin were identified and related to changes in the regimen of streamflow. Land use, brush infestation, and land-treatment practices have not caused significant changes in the rainfall-runoff relationship. The use of surface water for irrigation has increased very little during the past 70 years, and although the use of ground water for irrigation has greatly increased in the past 25 years, springflow has not been significantly diminished. The base flow of the streams is materially reduced by surface-water irrigation diversions. Diversions for municipal and industrial use have increased rapidly, but these diversions affect only the streamflow downstream from San Angelo. Statistical analyses showed the annual rainfall to be highly variable, with little serial correlation. Records of rainfall during the period 1943-68 are significantly different in character from previous long-term records. The frequency of monthly rainfall equal to or greater than 2.0 inches during the period 1943-68, and especially during the period 1962-68, was significantly less than the long-term averages. Analyses of annual runoff data, adjusted for depletions, show large variations in annual runoff. Coefficients of variation ranged from 0.8 to 1.4, and first-order serial correlations ranged from 0.01 to 0.28. The estimated recurrence interval of the 1962-68 drought is about 200 years. The analyses of rainfall-intensity and runoff data indicate that the basic cause for the relatively low runoff during the period 1962-68 was the lack of high-intensity, long-duration storms rather than any physical changes or agricultural practices in the watershed

Texas↗

USGS2021

Climate change and other factors influencing the saguaro cactus

The saguaro cacti ( Carnegiea gigantea [Engelm.] Britton & Rose) is one of the world’s most iconic plants and a symbol of the desert Southwest. It is the namesake of Saguaro National Park, which was created (initially as a national monument) in 1933 to study, interpret, and protect the “giant cactus” and other unique Sonoran Desert species. Research on saguaros over the past century has revealed much about the plant’s growth, reproduction, population dynamics, and use by people and wildlife. Young saguaros grow very slowly, not reaching reproductive age until they are 35–65 years old. They produce white flowers that open at night during April through June, followed by large red fruits that are consumed by many desert animals. The saguaro fruit is also a traditional food source for the Tohono O’odham people, and the harvest of the saguaro fruit is a very important part of their culture (Bruhn 1971). Mature saguaros produce thousands of seeds each year, but establishment is episodic in that seedlings survive only during favorable periods with several consecutive years of cooler, wetter weather (Steenbergh and Lowe 1977).

Arizona↗

USGS2021

History of Great Salt Lake, Utah, USA: Since the termination of Lake Bonneville

During the past half century or so diverse histories of Great Salt Lake have been written from differing perspectives and all of them have contributed ideas and essential data. The published literature, however, can be confusing and misleading. In this chapter, we review and provide context for a number of those publications. This chapter is intended as a summary of what is known, what is not known, and what cannot be known with precision about the history of the lake. Great Salt Lake is the largest hydrographically closed lake in the Bonneville basin of northwestern Utah. It responds to both short-term weather and long-term climate. In the Lake Bonneville/Great Salt Lake lacustrine system, the end of Lake Bonneville at 13,000 yr BP marks the beginning of Great Salt Lake. The much larger and deeper lakes of the Bonneville lake cycle responded to the pluvial climate of oxygen isotope stage 2, but the warmer, drier climate of oxygen isotope stage 1 led to rapid fluctuations within a relatively narrow, well-documented elevation range, 5 m above and 9 m below the historical mean elevation of ~1280 m. Two exceptional but short-lived rises of Great Salt Lake to elevations higher than 5 m above ~1280 m have been documented —one during the Gilbert episode, which peaked about 11,600 yr BP near an elevation of 1295 m, and one to about 1289 m sometime after about 11,000 yr BP. The historical Great Salt Lake hydrograph (the past 150 years) shows its labile behavior. Smooth-curve hydrographs based on estimates of lake level at time scales of decades, centuries, or millennia, such as those presented in previous publications, do not accurately portray the way lake level rises and falls, and a precise plot of post-Bonneville changes in level of Great Salt Lake would resemble the “jagged” historical record. The available sedimentary and geomorphic data are not conducive at this time to the production of a highly precise hydrograph, so we suggest that post-Bonneville lake-level history be portrayed, imprecisely but accurately, as confined generally between the elevation limits of 1285 and 1271 m, with an indication of the exceptional spikes in the lake level.

Utah↗

USGS2022

Subaerial volcaniclastic deposits — Influences of initiation mechanisms and transport behaviour on characteristics and distributions

Subaerial volcaniclastic deposits are produced principally by volcanic debris avalanches, pyroclastic density currents, lahars, and tephra falls. Those deposits have widely ranging geomorphic and sedimentologic characteristics; they can mantle, modify, or create new topography, and their emplacement and subsequent reworking can have an outsized impact on the geomorphic and sedimentologic responses of watersheds surrounding, and channels draining, volcanoes. Volcaniclastic deposits provide a wealth of information about eruptive histories, volcanic processes, and landscape responses to eruptions. The volcanic processes that produce these deposits, and consequently the character and sedimentary structures of the deposits themselves, are influenced by initiation mechanism. Deposit preservation is affected by deposit magnitude, texture, and composition, depositional environment, and climate regime. Innovative analyses of deposits from several modern eruptions and advancements in physical and numerical modelling have vastly improved our understanding of volcanic processes, interpretations of eruptive histories, and recognition of the hazards posed by volcanic eruptions. This contribution highlights and summarizes major advances that have occurred in the past few decades in understanding of volcaniclastic deposits and linkages with volcanic processes.

Special Papers of the Geological Society of London↗

USGS2025

Global methane budget 2000-2020

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH 4 ) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. CH 4 is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and both emissions and atmospheric concentrations of CH 4 have continued to increase since 2007 after a temporary pause. The relative importance of CH 4 emissions compared to those of CO 2 for temperature change is related to its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger radiative effect, and acceleration in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in quantifying the factors responsible for the observed atmospheric growth rate arise from diverse, geographically overlapping CH 4 sources and from the uncertain magnitude and temporal change in the destruction of CH 4 by short-lived and highly variable hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to improve, synthesise, and update the global CH 4 budget regularly and to stimulate new research on the methane cycle. Following Saunois et al. (2016, 2020), we present here the third version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal CH 4 budget, integrating results of top-down CH 4 emission estimates (based on in situ and Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) atmospheric observations and an ensemble of atmospheric inverse-model results) and bottom-up estimates (based on process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). We present a budget for the most recent 2010–2019 calendar decade (the latest period for which full data sets are available), for the previous decade of 2000–2009 and for the year 2020. The revision of the bottom-up budget in this 2025 edition benefits from important progress in estimating inland freshwater emissions, with better counting of emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. This budget also reduces double counting across freshwater and wetland emissions and, for the first time, includes an estimate of the potential double counting that may exist (average of 23 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ). Bottom-up approaches show that the combined wetland and inland freshwater emissions average 248 [159–369] Tg CH 4 yr −1 for the 2010–2019 decade. Natural fluxes are perturbed by human activities through climate, eutrophication, and land use. In this budget, we also estimate, for the first time, this anthropogenic component contributing to wetland and inland freshwater emissions. Newly available gridded products also allowed us to derive an almost complete latitudinal and regional budget based on bottom-up approaches. For the 2010–2019 decade, global CH 4 emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down) to be 575 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 553–586, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this amount, 369 Tg CH 4 yr −1 or ∼ 65 % is attributed to direct anthropogenic sources in the fossil, agriculture, and waste and anthropogenic biomass burning (range 350–391 Tg CH 4 yr −1 or 63 %–68 %). For the 2000–2009 period, the atmospheric inversions give a slightly lower total emission than for 2010–2019, by 32 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 9–40). The 2020 emission rate is the highest of the period and reaches 608 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 581–627), which is 12 % higher than the average emissions in the 2000s. Since 2012, global direct anthropogenic CH 4 emission trends have been tracking scenarios that assume no or minimal climate mitigation policies proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (shared socio-economic pathways SSP5 and SSP3). Bottom-up methods suggest 16 % (94 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) larger global emissions (669 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , range 512–849) than top-down inversion methods for the 2010–2019 period. The discrepancy between the bottom-up and the top-down budgets has been greatly reduced compared to the previous differences (167 and 156 Tg CH 4 yr −1 in Saunois et al. (2016, 2020) respectively), and for the first time uncertainties in bottom-up and top-down budgets overlap. Although differences have been reduced between inversions and bottom-up, the most important source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget is still attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and inland freshwaters. The tropospheric loss of methane, as the main contributor to methane lifetime, has been estimated at 563 [510–663] Tg CH 4 yr −1 based on chemistry–climate models. These values are slightly larger than for 2000–2009 due to the impact of the rise in atmospheric methane and remaining large uncertainty ( ∼ 25 %). The total sink of CH 4 is estimated at 633 [507–796] Tg CH 4 yr −1 by the bottom-up approaches and at 554 [550–567] Tg CH 4 yr −1 by top-down approaches. However, most of the top-down models use the same OH distribution, which introduces less uncertainty to the global budget than is likely justified. For 2010–2019, agriculture and waste contributed an estimated 228 [213–242] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 211 [195–231] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. Fossil fuel emissions contributed 115 [100–124] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 120 [117–125] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. Biomass and biofuel burning contributed 27 [26–27] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 28 [21–39] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. We identify five major priorities for improving the CH 4 budget: (i) producing a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting CH 4 based on a robust classification of different types of emitting ecosystems; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of CH 4 observations at local (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 measurements, urban-scale monitoring, satellite imagery with pointing capabilities) to regional scales (surface networks and global remote sensing measurements from satellites) to constrain both bottom-up models and atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) integration of 3D variational inversion systems using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane as well as information in the bottom-up inventories on anthropogenic super-emitters detected by remote sensing (mainly oil and gas sector but also coal, agriculture, and landfills) to improve source partitioning.

Earth System Science Data↗

USGS2025

The anatomy and lethality of the Siberian Traps large igneous province

Emplacement of the Siberian Traps large igneous province (LIP) around 252 Ma coincided with the most profound environmental disruption of the past 500 million years. The enormous volume of the Siberian Traps, its ability to generate greenhouse gases and other volatiles, and a temporal coincidence with extinction all suggest a causal link. Patterns of marine and terrestrial extinction/recovery are consistent with environmental stresses potentially triggered by the Siberian Traps. However, the nature of causal links between the LIP and mass extinction remains enigmatic. Understanding the origins, anatomy, and forcing potential of the Siberian Traps LIP and the spatiotemporal patterns of resulting stresses represents a critical counterpart to high-resolution fossil and proxy records of Permian–Triassic environmental and biotic shifts. This review provides a summary of recent advances and key questions regarding the Siberian Traps in an effort to illuminate what combination of factors made the Siberian Traps a uniquely deadly LIP. Large igneous provinces such as the Siberian Traps are capable of triggering global environmental destabilization. Greenhouse gases generated by Siberian Traps magmatism played a major role in driving the climate changes that triggered the end-Permian mass extinction. The end-Permian extinction fundamentally altered the evolutionary trajectory of Earth's biosphere, creating ecological space for many of the organisms seen today. Determining the timing and patterns of end-Permian marine and terrestrial mortality and recovery and the timing and character of Siberian Traps magmatism is key in understanding the causal link between magmatism and extinction. Understanding the cause(s) of past extinction events informs hypotheses about current and future environmental destabilization.

Siberia↗