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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources
USGS1994

Earthquake damage to transportation systems

Earthquakes represent one of the most destructive natural hazards known to man. A large magnitude earthquake near a populated area can affect residents over thousands of square kilometers and cause billions of dollars in property damage. Such an event can kill or injure thousands of residents and disrupt the socioeconomic environment for months, sometimes years. A serious result of a large-magnitude earthquake is the disruption of transportation systems, which limits post-disaster emergency response. Movement of emergency vehicles, such as police cars, fire trucks and ambulances, is often severely restricted. Damage to transportation systems is categorized below by cause including: ground failure, faulting, vibration damage, and tsunamis.

Report↗
USGS2001

Observations and recommendations regarding landslide hazards related to the January 13, 2001 M-7.6 El Salvador earthquake

The January 13, 2001 earthquake (M-7.6) off the coast of El Salvador triggered widespread damaging landslides in many parts of the El Salvador. In the aftermath of the earthquake, the Salvadoran government requested technical assistance through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID); USAID, in turn, requested help from technical experts in landslide hazards from the U.S. Geological Survey. In response to that request, we arrived in El Salvador on January 31, 2001 and worked with USAID personnel and Salvadoran agency counterparts in visiting landslide sites and evaluating present and potential hazards. A preliminary, unofficial report was prepared at the end of our trip (February 9) to provide immediate information and assistance to interested agencies and parties. The current report is an updated and somewhat expanded version of that unofficial report. Because of the brief nature of this report, conclusions and recommendations contained herein should be considered tentative and may be revised in the future.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2000

Variability of site response in Seattle, Washington

Ground motion from local earthquakes and the SHIPS (Seismic Hazards Investigation in Puget Sound) experiment is used to estimate site amplification factors in Seattle. Earthquake and SHIPS records are analyzed by two methods: (1) spectral ratios relative to a nearby site on Tertiary sandstone, and (2) a source/site spectral inversion technique. Our results show site amplifications between 3 and 4 below 5 Hz for West Seattle relative to Tertiary rock. These values are approximately 30% lower than amplification in the Duwamish Valley on artificial fill, but significantly higher than the calculated range of 2 to 2.5 below 5 Hz for the till-covered hills east of downtown Seattle. Although spectral amplitudes are only 30% higher in the Duwamish Valley compared to West Seattle, the duration of long-period ground motion is significantly greater on the artificial fill sites. Using a three-dimensional displacement response spectrum measure that includes the effects of ground-motion duration, values in the Duwamish Valley are 2 to 3 times greater than West Seattle. These calculations and estimates of site response as a function of receiver azimuth point out the importance of trapped surface-wave energy within the shallow, low-velocity, sedimentary layers of the Duwamish Valley. One-dimensional velocity models yield spectral amplification factors close to the observations for till sites east of downtown Seattle and the Duwamish Valley, but underpredict amplifications by a factor of 2 in West Seattle. A two-dimensional finite-difference model does equally well for the till sites and the Duwamish Valley and also yields duration estimates consistent with the observations for the Duwamish Valley. The two-dimensional model, however, still underpredicts amplification in West Seattle by up to a factor of 2. This discrepancy is attributed to 3D effects, including basin-edge-induced surface waves and basin-geometry-focusing effects, caused by the proximity of the Seattle thrust fault and the sediment-filled Seattle basin.

Washington↗
USGS2005

USGS California Water Science Center water programs in California

California is threatened by many natural hazards—fire, floods, landslides, earthquakes. The State is also threatened by longer-term problems, such as hydrologic effects of climate change, and human-induced problems, such as overuse of ground water and degradation of water quality. The threats and problems are intensified by increases in population, which has risen to nearly 36.8 million. For the USGS California Water Science Center, providing scientific information to help address hazards, threats, and hydrologic issues is a top priority. To meet the demands of a growing California, USGS scientific investigations are helping State and local governments improve emergency management, optimize resources, collect contaminant-source and -mobility information, and improve surface- and ground-water quality. USGS hydrologic studies and data collection throughout the State give water managers quantifiable and detailed scientific information that can be used to plan for development and to protect and more efficiently manage resources. The USGS, in cooperation with state, local, and tribal agencies, operates more than 500 instrument stations, which monitor streamflow, ground-water levels, and surface- and ground-water constituents to help protect water supplies and predict the threats of natural hazards. The following are some of the programs implemented by the USGS, in cooperation with other agencies, to obtain and analyze information needed to preserve California's environment and resources.

California↗
USGS2026

Efficient physics‐informed ground‐motion simulations with reduced‐order models: CyberShake implications and high‐resolution site terms for southern San Andreas fault earthquakes

Recent advances in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) leverage physics‐based ground‐motion simulations to estimate seismic hazard, such as the CyberShake project. However, computational costs quickly escalate when performing PSHA for numerous faults or sites and can become prohibitively expensive. To reduce computational demands, CyberShake uses reciprocity and interpolates physics‐informed corrections from simulations conducted at fewer locations, but the accuracy of these interpolations remains poorly quantified. To quantify the interpolation accuracy, we derive high‐resolution, frequency‐dependent site terms for southern California and compare them with interpolated site terms using the CyberShake approach. We accomplish this by performing a set of earthquake point‐source simulations distributed along the nonplanar fault geometry for the southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) extending from Bombay Beach to Lake Hughes. Using SeisSol, we simulate three minutes of viscoelastic seismic wave propagation for these sources and store the horizontal‐component Green’s functions for 480,000 sites. We then use a scientific machine learning approach based on interpolated proper orthogonal decomposition to construct an accurate reduced‐order model of the Green’s functions to efficiently predict effective amplitude spectra (EAS) for finite‐source rupture models of SSAF earthquakes. Using minimum curvature interpolation with tension, as used in CyberShake, we compare the interpolated site terms against our high‐resolution site terms. We identify local discrepancies with EAS differing by up to a factor of approximately three. Furthermore, we identify locations where unexpectedly high or low ground motions are missed when using the interpolated dataset for these earthquakes. We estimate that our approach may be used within CyberShake to reduce the time‐to‐solution by a factor of 336 for the entire earthquake rupture forecast. Our analysis of physics‐based site terms provides more insight into the seismic hazard due to SSAF ruptures and guides future developments by combining high‐performance computing and reduced‐order modeling techniques for PSHA.

California↗
USGS2023

A comprehensive fault system inversion approach: Methods and application to NSHM23

We present updated inversion‐based fault‐system solutions for the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23), standardizing earthquake rate model calculations on crustal faults across the western United States. We build upon the inversion methodology used in the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) to solve for time‐independent rates of earthquakes in an interconnected fault system. The updated model explicitly maps out a wide range of fault recurrence and segmentation behavior (epistemic uncertainty), more completely exploring the solution space of viable models beyond those of UCERF3. We also improve the simulated annealing implementation, greatly increasing computational efficiency (and thus inversion convergence), and introduce an adaptive constraint weight calculation algorithm that helps to mediate between competing constraints. Hazard calculations show that ingredient changes (especially fault and deformation models) are the primary driver of hazard changes between NSHM23 and UCERF3. Updates to the inversion methodology are also consequential near faults in which the slip rate in UCERF3 was poorly fit or was satisfied primarily using large multifault ruptures that are now restricted by explicit b ‐value and segmentation constraints.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2013

Holocene tectonics and fault reactivation in the foothills of the north Cascade Mountains, Washington

We use LiDAR imagery to identify two fault scarps on latest Pleistocene glacial outwash deposits along the North Fork Nooksack River in Whatcom County, Washington (United States). Mapping and paleoseismic investigation of these previously unknown scarps provide constraints on the earthquake history and seismic hazard in the northern Puget Lowland. The Kendall scarp lies along the mapped trace of the Boulder Creek fault, a south-dipping Tertiary normal fault, and the Canyon Creek scarp lies in close proximity to the south-dipping Canyon Creek fault and the south-dipping Glacier Extensional fault. Both scarps are south-side-up, opposite the sense of displacement observed on the nearby bedrock faults. Trenches excavated across these scarps exposed folded and faulted late Quaternary glacial outwash, locally dated between ca. 12 and 13 ka, and Holocene buried soils and scarp colluvium. Reverse and oblique faulting of the soils and colluvial deposits indicates at least two late Holocene earthquakes, while folding of the glacial outwash prior to formation of the post-glacial soil suggests an earlier Holocene earthquake. Abrupt changes in bed thickness across faults in the Canyon Creek excavation suggest a lateral component of slip. Sediments in a wetland adjacent to the Kendall scarp record three pond-forming episodes during the Holocene—we infer that surface ruptures on the Boulder Creek fault during past earthquakes temporarily blocked the stream channel and created an ephemeral lake. The Boulder Creek and Canyon Creek faults formed in the early to mid-Tertiary as normal faults and likely lay dormant until reactivated as reverse faults in a new stress regime. The most recent earthquakes—each likely M w > 6.3 and dating to ca. 8050–7250 calendar years B.P. (cal yr B.P.), 3190–2980 cal. yr B.P., and 910–740 cal. yr B.P.—demonstrate that reverse faulting in the northern Puget Lowland poses a hazard to urban areas between Seattle (Washington) and Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada).

Washington↗
USGS2021

Evaluation of intensity prediction equations (IPEs) for small-magnitude earthquakes

This study assesses existing intensity prediction equations (IPEs) for small unspecified magnitude ( M ≤3.5) earthquakes at short hypocentral distances ( ⁠ D h ⁠ ) and explores such earthquakes’ contribution to the felt shaking hazard. In particular, we consider IPEs by Atkinson and Wald (2007) and Atkinson et al. (2014) , and evaluate their performance based on “Did You Feel It” (DYFI) reports and recorded peak ground velocities (PGVs) in the central United States. Both IPEs were developed based on DYFI reports in the central and eastern United States with moment magnitudes above M w 3.0. DYFI reports are often used as the ground truth when evaluating and developing IPEs, but they could be less reliable when there are limited responses for small‐magnitude earthquakes. We first compare the DYFI reports with intensities interpolated from recorded PGVs. Results suggest a minimal discrepancy between the two when the intensity is large enough to be felt (i.e., M >2 and D h < 15 km ⁠ ). We then compare intensities from 31,617 DYFI reports of 3049 earthquakes with the two IPEs. Results suggest that both the IPEs match well with observed intensities for 2.0< M <3.0 and D h < 10 km ⁠ , but the IPE by Atkinson et al. (2014) matches better for larger distances. We also observe that intensities from DYFI reports attenuate faster compared with the two IPEs, especially for distances greater than 10 km. We then group DYFI reports by inferred V S 30 as a proxy for site amplification effects. We observe that intensities at sites with V S 30 around 300 m/s are consistently higher than at sites with V S 30 around 700 m/s and are also closer to the two IPEs. Finally, we conduct hazard disaggregation for earthquakes at close distances ( ⁠ D h = 7.5 km ⁠ ) using the observed records. Results suggest that earthquakes with magnitudes below M 3.0 contribute more than 40% to the occurrence of felt shaking.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2023

Seafloor observations eliminate a landslide as the source of the 1918 Puerto Rico Tsunami

The 11 October 1918 devastating tsunami in northwest Puerto Rico had been used as an example for earthquake‐induced landslide tsunami hazard. Three pieces of evidence pointed to a landslide as the origin of the tsunami: the discovery of a large submarine landslide scar from bathymetry data collected by shipboard high‐resolution multibeam sonar, reported breaks of submarine cable within the scar, and the fit of tsunami models to flooding observations. Newly processed seafloor imagery collected by remotely operated vehicle (ROV) show, however, pervasive Fe–Mn crust (patina) on the landslide walls and floor, indicating that the landslide scar is at least several hundred years old. C 14 "> 14 C dates of sediment covering the landslide floor verify this interpretation. Although we have not searched the region systematically for an alternative tsunami source, we propose a possible source—a two‐segment normal‐fault rupture along the eastern wall of Mona rift. The proposed fault location matches the published normal faults with steep bathymetry and is close to the International Seismological Center–Global Earthquake Model catalog locations of the 1918 mainshock and aftershocks. The ROV observations further show fresh vertical slickensides and rock exposure along the proposed fault trace. Hydrodynamic models from an M w "> M w 7.2 earthquake rupture along the eastern wall of the rift faithfully reproduce the reported tsunami amplitudes, polarities, and arrival times. Our analysis emphasizes the value of close‐up observations and physical samples to augment remote sensing data in natural hazard studies.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2024

Participatory engagement to reduce communication gaps

Underserved communities, especially those in coastal areas in Puerto Rico, face significant threats from natural hazards such as hurricanes and rising sea levels. Limited funding hinders the investment in costly mitigation measures, increasing exposure to natural disasters. Providing coastal resources and data products through effective communication mechanisms is fundamental to improving the well-being of these underserved coastal communities. The overall objectives of the pilot effort to engage and connect with underserved coastal communities in Puerto Rico were the following: (1) compile a comprehensive database of the projects and resources relevant to natural hazards in Puerto Rico; (2) foster connections with Puerto Rican interested parties to better understand their priorities regarding coastal hazards and provide them with pertinent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) resources; and (3) identify knowledge gaps to guide future USGS projects in Puerto Rico. Here we outline our participatory engagement framework and process, along with two specific resources developed with the information collected from this effort. These resources are available in English and Spanish and consist of user-friendly, non-technical information products. Among them are: (1) a website where users can learn about USGS research on landslides, hurricanes, earthquakes, water resources, coastal hazards, tsunamis, and ecosystem hazards and environmental contaminants, and (2) a geonarrative highlighting shoreline changes in Puerto Rico with sections on historical shoreline trends, hurricane impacts, and potential solutions that could help protect communities and mitigate coastal hazards. Continuing participatory engagement in future projects could enhance the accessibility and usability of natural hazards resources within the community.

San Juan↗
USGS1982

The U. S. Geological Survey Geologic Hazards Program

In 1879, Congress established the U.S Geological Survey for "the classification of the public lands and the examination of the geological structure, mineral resources, and products of the national domain." Throughout the past 103 years, the Survey has successfully fulfilled these responsibilities, but it has also been responsive to changing national needs. This responsiveness is well exemplified by the development of the agency's natural hazard programs. Our orignial mision has been expanded to include formal investigations of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, ground failures, and flood hazards.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗
USGS2026

3D broadband ground motion simulations of Cascadia megathrust earthquakes: Full-margin scenarios incorporating variable magnitudes and frontal thrust splay faulting

Great megathrust earthquakes (∼ M w 8–9) that rupture along the Cascadia Subduction Zone pose significant shaking and tsunami hazards to the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Although these large earthquakes are documented in the geologic record, none have been recorded with modern instrumentation, complicating regional seismic hazard assessments. To improve constraints on seismic hazard estimates for future earthquakes, we develop 3D broadband (0–10 Hz) ground‐motion simulations for 36 full‐margin megathrust earthquake scenarios through the Cascadia Coastlines and Peoples Hazards Research Hub. These simulations expand on the M9 Project ( Frankel et al. , 2018 ; Wirth, Frankel, et al. , 2018 ) by incorporating a broader range of rupture parameters—variable magnitudes, splay faulting, and geodetically informed slip distributions. Benchmarking these simulations against the Next Generation Attenuation Subduction (NGA‐Sub) ground‐motion models shows reasonable fits for non‐basin sites, although simulations predict stronger shaking at short (0–2 s) and long (6–10 s) periods. NGA‐Sub basin terms improve fits to synthetic shaking within the Seattle Basin but underpredict amplitudes by a factor of 2 at periods of 2–5 s. We also evaluate how rupture characteristics influence regional inland shaking variability and basin response in the Puget Lowlands. Larger magnitude scenarios generally cause stronger inland shaking due to farther inland extents of slip and larger strong‐motion‐generating fault patches but show little difference in basin amplification within the Puget Lowlands compared to smaller magnitude events. Along‐dip hypocenter location strongly influences overall inland shaking, with offshore (updip) hypocenters generating on average ∼45% higher shaking at long periods (>6 s) compared to onshore (downdip) hypocenters due to rupture directivity effects. Offshore splay faults minimally affect inland shaking but alter offshore deformation important for coupled ground‐shaking and tsunami scenarios. Finally, we show that rupture directivity increases amplification within the Seattle Basin through the generation and interaction of higher order mode surface waves, an effect of 3D basin geometry that cannot be captured using 1D approximations.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2018

The science, engineering applications, and policy implications of simulation-based PSHA

We summarize scientific methods for developing probabilistic seismic hazard assessments from 3-D earthquake ground motion simulations, describe current use of simulated ground motions for engineering applications, and discuss on-going efforts to incorporate these effects in the U.S. national seismic hazard model. The 3-D simulations provide important, additional information about earthquake ground-shaking, which is critical to proper characterization of potential ground motions. Example uses of these simulations for engineering applications provide alternative approaches to introducing the effects of deep basins on long-period ground motions into design requirements. In Seattle, Washington tall building design includes requirements for accounting for the effect of the Seattle basin, and one method for including this effect relies upon local 3-D simulations. In Los Angeles, California a working group of scientists and engineers is advancing the use of local 3-D simulations for local building codes. In light of the benefit to ground motion characterization from the use of 3-D simulations, similar efforts are underway for national-scale seismic hazard analyses, which seek to make use of the extensive work applied from local efforts; current methods for incorporating these effects on a national-scale are presented.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2002

Seismic-reflection profiles of the central part of the Clarendon-Linden fault system of western New York in relation to regional seismicity

Geological and geophysical research in upstate New York, with few exceptions, has not definitively associated seismicity with specific Proterozoic basement or Paleozoic bedrock structures. The central part of the Clarendon-Linden fault system (CLFS) between Batavia and Dale, NY is one of those exceptions where seismicity has been studied and has been spatially associated with structure. The CLFS is either a complex system of long faults with associated shorter branches and parallel segments, or a region of many short faults aligned north-south from the Lake Ontario shore southward to Allegany County, NY. Interpretation of 38 km of Vibroseis and approximately 56 km of conventional seismic-reflection data along 13 lines suggests that the CLFS is a broad zone of small faults with small displacements in the lower Paleozoic bedrock section that is at least 77 km long and 7-17 km wide and spatially coincident with a northtrending geophysical (combined aeromagnetic and gravity) lineament within the basement. The relative offset across the faults of the system is more than 91 m near Attica, NY. The CLFS is the expression of tectonic crustal adjustments within the Paleozoic rock above the boundary of two basement megablocks of differing petrologic provinces and differing earthquake characteristics that forms the eastern side of the Elzevir-Frontenac boundary zone. Deep seismic-reflection profiles display concave-eastward listric faults that probably merge at depth near the mid-crustal boundary layer. An interpretive vertical section provides the setting for refined definitions of the CLFS, its extensions at depth and its relation to seismicity. Most modern seismicity in western New York and the Niagara Peninsula of Ontario occurs in apparent patterns of randomly dispersed activity. The sole exception is a line of seven epicenters of small earthquakes that trend east from Attica, NY into the Rochester basement megablock. Earthquakes may be triggered at the intersections of north- and east-trending brittle faults within the Niagara basement megablock. Current interpretations of the mechanisms for earthquake generation in western New York and the Niagara Peninsula of Ontario require conservative estimates of seismic hazards that assume that an earthquake the size of the 1929 Attica, NY, event (Mb = 5.2) or larger could occur anywhere in the Eastern Great Lakes Basin (EGLB). The broad zone of small-displacement faults that marks the CLFS in the lower Paleozoic sedimentary section and the uppermost basement may not provide the structural environment for generation of earthquakes in western New York. If this interpretation is correct, most seismicity is generated within the Niagara basement megablock beneath or west of the CLFS. Consequently, we may have to look to the deeper tectonic regime of basement megablocks to understand the distribution of modern seismicity in the EGLB. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Tectonophysics↗
USGS2023

A multifault earthquake threat for the Seattle metropolitan region revealed by mass tree mortality

Compound earthquakes involving simultaneous ruptures along multiple faults often define a region’s upper threshold of maximum magnitude. Yet, the potential for linked faulting remains poorly understood given the infrequency of these events in the historic era. Geological records provide longer perspectives, although temporal uncertainties are too broad to clearly pinpoint single multifault events. Here, we use dendrochronological dating and a cosmogenic radiation pulse to constrain the death dates of earthquake-killed trees along two adjacent fault zones near Seattle, Washington to within a 6-month period between the 923 and 924 CE growing seasons. Our narrow constraints conclusively show linked rupturing that occurred either as a single composite earthquake of estimated magnitude 7.8 or as a closely spaced double earthquake sequence with estimated magnitudes of 7.5 and 7.3. These scenarios, which are not recognized in current hazard models, increase the maximum earthquake size needed for seismic preparedness and engineering design within the Puget Sound region of >4 million residents.

Washington↗
USGS2025

A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective

We articulate a scientific vision and roadmap for the development of improved Earthquake Rupture Forecast models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic hazard and risk analysis. One primary future objective is to provide fully time-dependent models that include both elastic rebound and spatiotemporal clustering nationwide, which is particularly important for shorter-term hazard and risk considerations (e.g., earthquake insurance products). We also discuss the importance and perennial challenges associated with quantifying epistemic uncertainties, including those associated with deformation-model slip rates, un-quantified sampling errors with respect to off-fault seismicity, and any spatial covariances. The need for more physics-based approaches is also emphasized, as is the benefit of adding model valuation (quantifying usefulness) to our verification and validation protocols. Given the multidisciplinary and system-level nature of this activity, modular design is critical. Future updates will also draw from best-available science by both the United States Geological Survey and the external community. The primary goal of this paper is to highlight plans that guide research and facilitate community engagement with model development, especially with respect to lowering the entry barrier for early career scientists and engineers. The paper is written so readers can focus on the sections that interest them most (see table of contents), with the Introduction and Discussion providing a stand-alone overview and summary.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2007

Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on tsunami forecast and assessment models for great subduction-zone earthquakes

Results from different tsunami forecasting and hazard assessment models are compared with observed tsunami wave heights from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Forecast models are based on initial earthquake information and are used to estimate tsunami wave heights during propagation. An empirical forecast relationship based only on seismic moment provides a close estimate to the observed mean regional and maximum local tsunami runup heights for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami but underestimates mean regional tsunami heights at azimuths in line with the tsunami beaming pattern (e.g., Sri Lanka, Thailand). Standard forecast models developed from subfault discretization of earthquake rupture, in which deep- ocean sea level observations are used to constrain slip, are also tested. Forecast models of this type use tsunami time-series measurements at points in the deep ocean. As a proxy for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a transect of deep-ocean tsunami amplitudes recorded by satellite altimetry is used to constrain slip along four subfaults of the M >9 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake. This proxy model performs well in comparison to observed tsunami wave heights, travel times, and inundation patterns at Banda Aceh. Hypothetical tsunami hazard assessments models based on end- member estimates for average slip and rupture length (M w 9.0–9.3) are compared with tsunami observations. Using average slip (low end member) and rupture length (high end member) (M w 9.14) consistent with many seismic, geodetic, and tsunami inversions adequately estimates tsunami runup in most regions, except the extreme runup in the western Aceh province. The high slip that occurred in the southern part of the rupture zone linked to runup in this location is a larger fluctuation than expected from standard stochastic slip models. In addition, excess moment release (∼9%) deduced from geodetic studies in comparison to seismic moment estimates may generate additional tsunami energy, if the exponential time constant of slip is less than approximately 1 hr. Overall, there is significant variation in assessed runup heights caused by quantifiable uncertainty in both first-order source parameters (e.g., rupture length, slip-length scaling) and spatiotemporal complexity of earthquake rupture.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2000

A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include: (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24 000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10 m grid spacing using ARC/INFO GIS software on a UNIX computer. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Engineering Geology↗