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At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Grizzly bear depredation on grazing allotments in the Yellowstone ecosystem

Grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) conflicts with humans, including livestock depredation on public land grazing allotments, have increased during the last several decades within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) in the western United States as the grizzly bear population has grown in number and occupied range. Minimizing conflicts and improving conservation efficacy requires information on the relationships between livestock depredations, allotment management, grizzly bear habitat conditions, and their interactions. We used generalized linear mixed models to evaluate spatio-temporal relationships between grizzly bear depredation of livestock and the characteristics of 316 United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service and National Park Service grazing allotments in the GYE during 1992–2014. We evaluated relationships at 2 spatial extents, representing daily and annual grizzly bear activity areas. During the study period, more grazing allotments became occupied by grizzly bears and most livestock depredations were associated with these areas of population expansion. Number of livestock (beta = 1.15 +/- 0.19 [SE]) and grizzly bear density index (beta = 1.13 +/- 0.10) had the greatest effects on the number of livestock depredation events relative to other allotment attributes. Estimated number of depredation events increased by approximately 20% when cow-calf pairs increased by 100 pairs and grizzly bear density index increased by 1 bear/196 km2 (the average annual home-range size of a female grizzly bear in the GYE). Additionally, grazing allotment size was positively related to the number of depredation events (beta = 0.56 +/- 0.16), whereas the presence of bull cattle or horses was associated with an approximately 50% reduction in depredations (beta = -0.71 +/- 0.37). Livestock depredation events were greater for allotments with lower road density (beta = -0.89 +/- 0.28), less rugged terrain (beta = -0.57 +/- 0.25), higher vegetative primary productivity (beta = 0.33 +/- 0.16), and more whitebark pine coverage (beta = 0.30 +/- 0.15). Relationships between depredations and grizzly bear habitat conditions varied across spatial extents. As the grizzly bear population continues to expand, natural resource managers and livestock producers could focus efforts on allotments with a higher density of grizzly bears, fewer roads, and quality grizzly bear habitat, including higher vegetative productivity, when developing cooperative management plans and preventative measures to reduce the likelihood of depredation. The perspectives gained from our analysis provide context for long-term, landscape-level planning to accommodate livestock production on public lands while meeting conservation goals for grizzly bears.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2009

Climatic effects of 30 years of landscape change over the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, region: 1. Surface energy budget changes

This paper is part 1 of a two-part study that evaluates the climatic effects of recent landscape change for one of the nation's most rapidly expanding metropolitan complexes, the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, region. The region's landscape evolution over an approximate 30-year period since the early 1970s is documented on the basis of analyses of Landsat images and land use/land cover (LULC) data sets derived from aerial photography (1973) and Landsat (1992 and 2001). High-resolution, Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), simulations (2-km grid spacing) are used in conjunction with consistently defined land cover data sets and associated biophysical parameters for the circa 1973, circa 1992, and circa 2001 time periods to quantify the impacts of intensive land use changes on the July surface temperatures and the surface radiation and energy budgets for the Greater Phoenix region. The main findings are as follows: since the early 1970s the region's landscape has been altered by a significant increase in urban/suburban land area, primarily at the expense of decreasing plots of irrigated agriculture and secondarily by the conversion of seminatural shrubland. Mean regional temperatures for the circa 2001 landscape were 0.12??C warmer than the circa 1973 landscape, with maximum temperature differences, located over regions of greatest urbanization, in excess of 1??C. The significant reduction in irrigated agriculture, for the circa 2001 relative to the circa 1973 landscape, resulted in dew point temperature decreases in excess of 1??C. The effect of distinct land use conversion themes (e.g., conversion from irrigated agriculture to urban land) was also examined to evaluate how the most important conversion themes have each contributed to the region's changing climate. The two urbanization themes studied (from an initial landscape of irrigated agriculture and seminatural shrubland) have the greatest positive effect on near-surface temperature, increasing maximum daily temperatures by 1??C. Overall, sensible heat flux differences between the circa 2001 and circa 1973 landscapes result in a 1 W m -2 increase in domain-wide sensible heating, and a similar order of magnitude decrease in latent heating, highlighting the importance of surface repartitioning in establishing near-surface temperature trends. In part 2 of this study, we address the role of the surface budget changes on the mesoscale dynamics/thermodynamics, in context of the large-scale environment. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗
USGS2017

Using CO 2 Prophet to estimate recovery factors for carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery

Introduction The Oil and Gas Journal’s enhanced oil recovery (EOR) survey for 2014 (Koottungal, 2014) showed that gas injection is the most frequently applied method of EOR in the United States and that carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is the most commonly used injection fluid for miscible operations. The CO 2 -EOR process typically follows primary and secondary (waterflood) phases of oil reservoir development. The common objective of implementing a CO 2 -EOR program is to produce oil that remains after the economic limit of waterflood recovery is reached. Under conditions of miscibility or multicontact miscibility, the injected CO 2 partitions between the gas and liquid CO2 phases, swells the oil, and reduces the viscosity of the residual oil so that the lighter fractions of the oil vaporize and mix with the CO 2 gas phase (Teletzke and others, 2005). Miscibility occurs when the reservoir pressure is at least at the minimum miscibility pressure (MMP). The MMP depends, in turn, on oil composition, impurities of the CO 2 injection stream, and reservoir temperature. At pressures below the MMP, component partitioning, oil swelling, and viscosity reduction occur, but the efficiency is increasingly reduced as the pressure falls farther below the MMP. CO 2 -EOR processes are applied at the reservoir level, where a reservoir is defined as an underground formation containing an individual and separate pool of producible hydrocarbons that is confined by impermeable rock or water barriers and is characterized by a single natural pressure system. A field may consist of a single reservoir or multiple reservoirs that are not in communication but which may be associated with or related to a single structural or stratigraphic feature (U.S. Energy Information Administration [EIA], 2000). The purpose of modeling the CO 2 -EOR process is discussed along with the potential CO 2 -EOR predictive models. The data demands of models and the scope of the assessments require tradeoffs between reservoir-specific data that can be assembled and simplifying assumptions that allow assignment of default values for some reservoir parameters. These issues are discussed in the context of the CO 2 Prophet EOR model, and their resolution is demonstrated with the computation of recovery-factor estimates for CO 2 -EOR of 143 reservoirs in the Powder River Basin Province in southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2026

Mountain goat declines in a protected, interior, native population

A shifting climate poses threats to alpine-adapted species including mountain goats. We used long-term (12 years) citizen science monitoring data and Bayesian N-mixture modeling to estimate population trends and drivers of population metrics among mountain goats in Glacier National Park (GNP). Median goats per site ( n = 37 sites) declined by 45% (95% credible interval [CRI] = 32%, 57%) from 77.8 (95% CRI = 64.4, 95.1) in 2008 to 42.3 (95% CRI = 34.3, 52.2) in 2019, with consistent declines from 2008 until 2015, when the number of estimated goats stabilized. The decline exceeds IUCN criteria for classifying a population as vulnerable, >30% declines over only two generations. Across years, relatively few goats occupied northwestern GNP. Goat numbers declined the most at northeastern sites, trended toward decline in most southern sites, and increased at only two west-central sites. The proportion of permanent snow and glaciers, the presence of natural mineral licks, and habituation strongly increased the initial abundance of goats in the area. Weather variables had the greatest influence on population growth rates, particularly precipitation between May 15 and June 15 of the previous summer, the neonatal period. Lower growth occurred with less snow water equivalent and lower mean winter temperature, early summer temperature, and early summer precipitation. Projected reductions of permanent snow, increasing spring and summer temperatures, and insufficient and variable spring precipitation raise concerns for the future of native goats in this region. Our analyses reveal ways to improve detection rates of goats during surveys, which is important for optimizing the precision of estimates and the power to detect future trends. Detection increased with goat habituation, retention of observers with experience, use of binoculars, and conducting surveys at lower temperatures and earlier dates. Improving detection will be particularly important given the lower number of goats currently observed in the park. Research to estimate park-wide population size, evaluate genetic structure and diversity, assess changing habitat, human recreation levels and forage, and forward-project climate effects on persistence will be crucial to understanding the context of these results and conserving this iconic, metapopulation at the southern edge of the distribution of native mountain goats.

Montana↗
USGS2022

Water-quality trends in surface waters of the Jemez River and Middle Rio Grande Basin from Cochiti to Albuquerque, New Mexico, 2004–19

Municipal water supply for Albuquerque, New Mexico, is provided, in part, through diversion of surface water from the Rio Grande by way of the San Juan-Chama Drinking Water Project diversion structure. Changes in surface-water quality along the Rio Grande and its tributaries upstream from the San Juan-Chama Drinking Water Project diversion structure are not well characterized. This study describes the methods and results of an analysis of surface-water-quality trends for selected constituents in the Rio Grande upstream from Albuquerque. Trends were evaluated for differing time periods ranging from 2004 to 2019 by using the Seasonal Kendall Tau (SKT) test and the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model. Water-quality data at three long-term sites were used for the trend analyses in this study, with the Cochiti and Alameda sites along the Rio Grande and the Jemez Canyon Dam site along the Jemez River, a tributary of the Rio Grande. The proximity of the Cochiti and Jemez Canyon Dam sites to dams is a drawback to the analysis because it is difficult to differentiate between the influence of dam management and the influence of streamflow on water-quality trends. The data used also did not fully meet desired levels of seasonal sampling density and had shorter periods of record than typically used for trend analysis, and this should be considered in the interpretation of these results. Study results indicate that concentrations, and thereby fluxes, are influenced by changes in streamflow at the Alameda site. Most trends from the WRTDS results, obtained by using flow-normalization, were downward for constituents at the Alameda site. Most constituents that were analyzed for trends by using SKT did not have a significant trend at any of the sites included in this study, indicating either that the water quality in the Middle Rio Grande Basin has been stable during the study period or that not enough samples were collected during different seasons to characterize the range of concentration variability with streamflow. The SKT test results indicate upward trends in concentrations of the following constituents: aluminum and antimony at the Alameda site, nitrate and nitrate plus nitrite at the Cochiti site, and potassium and antimony during the spring season at Jemez Canyon Dam. The SKT test results indicate a downward trend in cobalt at the Cochiti site that is subject to bias in the cobalt concentrations. SKT test results also indicate small, downward trends in Kjeldahl nitrogen at the Alameda and Cochiti sites. Concentrations of water-quality constituents were also compared to Federal and State water-quality standards to provide context and relevance to the results. No concentrations were above the national primary or secondary drinking water standards at the Alameda and Cochiti sites, but the Jemez Canyon Dam site did have concentrations above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary drinking water standard for arsenic and above the national secondary drinking water standards for dissolved solids and aluminum. The Alameda and Cochiti sites are on reaches of the Rio Grande that are listed as impaired for gross alpha particles and the Alameda site is on a reach of the Rio Grande that is listed as impaired for Escherichia coli , but there were no consistent changes in concentrations of these constituents at the impaired locations.

New Mexico↗
USGS2012

The United States National Climate Assessment - Alaska Technical Regional Report

The Alaskan landscape is changing, both in terms of effects of human activities as a consequence of increased population, social and economic development and their effects on the local and broad landscape; and those effects that accompany naturally occurring hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis. Some of the most prevalent changes, however, are those resulting from a changing climate, with both near term and potential upcoming effects expected to continue into the future. Alaska's average annual statewide temperatures have increased by nearly 4°F from 1949 to 2005, with significant spatial variability due to the large latitudinal and longitudinal expanse of the State. Increases in mean annual temperature have been greatest in the interior region, and smallest in the State's southwest coastal regions. In general, however, trends point toward increases in both minimum temperatures, and in fewer extreme cold days. Trends in precipitation are somewhat similar to those in temperature, but with more variability. On the whole, Alaska saw a 10-percent increase in precipitation from 1949 to 2005, with the greatest increases recorded in winter. The National Climate Assessment has designated two well-established scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic and others, 2001) as a minimum set that technical and author teams considered as context in preparing portions of this assessment. These two scenarios are referred to as the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios, which assume either a continuation of recent trends in fossil fuel use (A2) or a vigorous global effort to reduce fossil fuel use (B1). Temperature increases from 4 to 22°F are predicted (to 2070-2099) depending on which emissions scenario (A2 or B1) is used with the least warming in southeast Alaska and the greatest in the northwest. Concomitant with temperature changes, by the end of the 21st century the growing season is expected to lengthen by 15-25 days in some areas of Alaska, with much of that corresponding with earlier spring snow melt. Future projections of precipitation (30-80 years) over Alaska show an increase across the State, with the largest changes in the northwest and smallest in the southeast. Because of increasing temperatures and growing season length, however, increased precipitation may not correspond with increased water availability, due to temperature related increased evapotranspiration. The extent of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by about 10 percent since the late 1960s, with stronger trends noted since the late 1980s. Alaska has experienced similar trends, with a strong decrease in snow cover extent occurring in May. When averaged across the State, the disappearance of snow in the spring has occurred from 4 to 6 days earlier per decade, and snow return in fall has occurred approximately 2 days later per decade. This change appears to be driven by climate warming rather than a decrease in winter precipitation, with average winter temperatures also increasing by about 2.5°F. The extent of sea ice has been declining, as has been widely published in both national and scientific media outlets, and is projected to continue to decline during this century. The observed decline in annual sea ice minimum extent (September) has occurred more rapidly than was predicted by climate models and has been accompanied by decreases in ice thickness and in the presence of multi-year ice. This decrease was first documented by satellite imagery in the late 1970s for the Bering and Chukchi Seas, and is projected to continue, with the potential for the disappearance of summer sea ice by mid- to late century. A new phenomenon that was not reported in previous assessments is ocean acidification. Uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by oceans has a significant effect on marine biogeochemistry by reducing seawater pH. Ocean acidification is of particular concern in Alaska, because cold sea water absorbs CO2 more rapidly than warm water, and a decrease in sea ice extent has allowed increased sea surface exposure and more uptake of CO2 into these northern waters. Ocean acidification will likely affect the ability of organisms to produce and maintain shell material, such as aragonite or calcite (calcium carbonate minerals structured from carbonate ions), required by many shelled organism, from mollusks to corals to microscopic organisms at the base of the food chain. Direct biological effects in Alaska further along the food chain have yet to be studied and may vary among organisms. Some of the potentially most significant changes to Alaska that could result from a changing climate are the effects on the terrestrial cryosphere - particularly glaciers and permafrost. Alaskan glaciers are changing at a rapid rate, the primary driver appearing to be temperature. Statewide, glaciers lost 13 cubic miles of ice annually from the 1950s to the 1990s, and that rate doubled in the 2000s. However, like temperature and precipitation, glacier ice loss is not spatially uniform; most glaciers are losing mass, yet some are growing (for example Hubbard Glacier in southeast Alaska). Alaska glaciers with the most rapid loss are those terminating in sea water or lakes. With this increasing rate of melt, the contribution of surplus fresh water entering into the oceans from Alaska's glaciers, as well as those in neighboring British Columbia, Canada, is approximately 20 percent of that contributed by the Greenland Ice Sheet. Permafrost degradation (that is, the thawing of ice-rich soils) is currently (2012) impacting infrastructure and surface-water availability in areas of both discontinuous and continuous ground ice. Over most of the State, the permafrost is warming, with increasing temperatures broadly consistent with increasing air temperatures. On the Arctic coastal plain of Alaska, permafrost temperatures showed some cooling in the 1950s and 1960s but have been followed by a roughly 5°F increase since the 1980s. Many areas in the continuous permafrost zone have seen increases in temperature in the seasonally active layer and a decrease in re-freezing rates. Changes in the discontinuous permafrost zone are initially much more observable due to the resulting thermokarst terrain (land surface formed as ice rich permafrost thaws), most notable in boreal forested areas. Climate warming in Alaska has potentially broad implications for human health and food security, especially in rural areas, as well as increased risk for injury with changing winter ice conditions. Additionally, such warming poses the potential for increasing damage to existing water and sanitation facilities and challenges for development of new facilities, especially in areas underlain by permafrost. Non-infectious and infectious diseases also are becoming an increasing concern. For example, from 1999 to 2006 there was a statistically significant increase in medical claims for insectbite reactions in five of six regions of Alaska, with the largest percentage increase occurring in the most northern areas. The availability and quality of subsistence foods, normally considered to be very healthy, may change due to changing access, changing habitats, and spoilage of meat in food storage cellars. These and other trends and potential outcomes resulting from a changing climate are further described in this report. In addition, we describe new science leadership activities that have been initiated to address and provide guidance toward conducting research aimed at making available information for policy makers and land management agencies to better understand, address, and plan for changes to the local and regional environment. This report cites data in both metric and standard units due to the contributions by numerous authors and the direct reference of their data.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Local, regional, and coastwide effects of interactions between storms and relative position in tidal frame on Louisiana coastal marshes

Context In coastal wetlands, land area is dynamic in both space and time, and it is crucial to understand the factors that may tip the balance between wetland area loss and gain. Flooding has been shown to be a key regulator of wetland resilience to land loss through effects on vegetation health and productivity. However, the relationship between elevation and land change is complex, likely interacting with lateral processes such as edge erosion to influence land change rates. Objectives We sought to determine the role of storms, major drivers of lateral erosion, to help explain the complex relationships between elevation and land change at multiple spatial scales and improve predictions of wetland loss. Methods We used long-term records of elevation change, water elevation, and surface wind stress together with remotely sensed land-area change datasets to determine the factors that contribute to land loss in Louisiana (USA) coastal wetlands. Results Our results illustrate that wetland elevation alone cannot be used as a predictor of land change. Annual time-integrated wind stress, which we used as an indicator of storminess, is an important predictor of land change and interacts with elevation to impact wetland gain or loss. The data showed high site-level variation, indicating that local factors strongly determine land change. Nonetheless, we were able to identify broad generalities at the larger scales. We found that the interaction of flooding and storminess varied among geographic regions along the coast. In the Delta Plain region of the coast, sites that are frequently flooded (low elevation) were more likely to experience land gain in stormy years and land loss in calm years. Conversely, sites that were frequently drained (high elevation) had greater land loss during stormy years, presumably due to wind-wave erosion. This trend was not observed in the heavily managed Chenier Plain region, where perpetually flooded wetlands gained land during stormy years, likely due to wind-driven drainage of the marsh. Conclusion Together, these results illustrate that models of wetland vulnerability based upon elevation change or storm effects alone are too simple and will not capture observed trends in land change. Incorporating additional factors such as wind stress and management status can improve predictions of coastal wetland loss and our understanding of the mechanisms controlling resilience of these ecosystems.

Louisiana↗
USGS2019

Negative frequency-dependent foraging behaviour in a generalist herbivore (Alces alces) and its stabilizing influence on food-web dynamics

1. Resource selection is widely appreciated to be context‐dependent and shaped by both biological and abiotic factors. However, few studies have empirically assessed the extent to which selective foraging behaviour is dynamic and varies in response to environmental conditions for free‐ranging animal populations. 2. Here, we assessed the extent that forage selection fluctuated in response to different environmental conditions for a free‐ranging herbivore, moose (Alces alces), in Isle Royale National Park, over a 10‐year period. More precisely, we assessed how moose selection for coniferous versus deciduous forage in winter varied between geographic regions and in relation to (a) the relative frequency of forage types in the environment (e.g. frequency‐dependent foraging behaviour), (b) moose abundance, (c) predation rate (by grey wolves) and (d) snow depth. These factors are potentially important for their influence on the energetics of foraging. We also built a series of food‐chain models to assess the influence of dynamic foraging strategies on the stability of food webs. 3. Our analysis indicates that moose exhibited negative frequency dependence, by selectively exploiting rare resources. Frequency‐dependent foraging was further mediated by density‐dependent processes, which are likely to be predation, moose abundance or some combination of both. In particular, frequency dependence was weaker in years when predation risk was high (i.e. when the ratio of moose to wolves was relatively low). Selection for conifers was also slightly weaker during deep snow years. 4. The food‐chain analysis indicates that the type of frequency‐dependent foraging strategy exhibited by herbivores had important consequences for the stability of ecological communities. In particular, the dynamic foraging strategy that we observed in the empirical analysis (i.e. negative frequency dependence being mediated by density‐dependent processes) was associated with more stable food web dynamics compared to fixed foraging strategies. 5. The results of this study indicated that forage selection is a complex ecological process, varying in response to both biological (predation and moose density) and abiotic factors (snow depth) and over relatively small spatial scales (between regions). This study also provides a useful framework for assessing the influence of other aspects of foraging behaviour on the stability of food web dynamics.

Michigan↗
USGS2023

Big avalanches in a changing climate: Using tree-ring derived avalanche chronologies to examine avalanche frequency across multiple climate types

Large-magnitude snow avalanches pose a hazard to humans and infrastructure worldwide. Analyzing the spatiotemporal behavior of avalanches and the contributory climate factors is important for understanding historical variability in climate-avalanche relationships as well as improving avalanche forecasting. This study uses established dendrochronological methods to develop long-term regional avalanche chronologies for three different climate types: high-latitude maritime climate of southeast Alaska, intermountain climate of the northern Rocky Mountains, and continental climate of Colorado. In the maritime study area, we collected 434 cross sections throughout six avalanche paths near Juneau, Alaska. This resulted in 2706 identified avalanche growth disturbances between year 1720 and 2018 Common Era (CE), which allowed us to reconstruct 82 years with large magnitude avalanche activity across three sub-regions. By combining this tree-ring derived avalanche dataset with a suite of climate and atmospheric variables and applying a generalized linear model to fit a binomial regression, we found February and March precipitation and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) were significant predictors of large magnitude avalanche activity in the southeast Alaska study area. In the intermountain climate study area, tree-rings from 647 trees exhibited 2134 avalanche-related growth disturbances in the northern Rocky Mountains of northwest Montana from 1867 to 2019. The data show that the amount of snowpack across the northern Rocky Mountain region is directly related to avalanche probability. Coincident with warming and regional snowpack reductions, a decline of ~ 14% (~ 2% per decade) in overall large magnitude avalanche probability is apparent through the period 1950–2017 CE. In the continental climate of Colorado, we sampled 24 avalanche paths throughout the state and collected 1188 total samples with 4135 identified growth disturbances from 1698 to 2019. Preliminary results suggest years with large magnitude avalanche activity across the sub-regions of this study area are generally characterized by stormy winters with above average snowpack development but that early and late winter temperature and precipitation also play an important role in large avalanche activity. Characterizing historical climate-avalanche relationships across different climate types provides a broad baseline for understanding potential future changes in avalanche activity. Overall, this work helps forecasters and planners better understand the influence of climate on large magnitude avalanche frequency, and how potential changes in avalanche character and occurrence will affect their operations in the context of a warming climate.

Alaska, Colorado, Montana↗
USGS2013

Mercury bioaccumulation in fishes from subalpine lakes of the Wallowa-Whitman National Forest, northeastern Oregon and western Idaho

Mercury (Hg) is a globally distributed pollutant that poses considerable risks to human and wildlife health. Over the past 150 years since the advent of the industrial revolution, approximately 80 percent of global emissions have come from anthropogenic sources, largely fossil fuel combustion. As a result, atmospheric deposition of Hg has increased by up to 4-fold above pre-industrial times. Because of their isolation, remote high-elevation lakes represent unique environments for evaluating the bioaccumulation of atmospherically deposited Hg through freshwater food webs, as well as for evaluating the relative importance of Hg loading versus landscape influences on Hg bioaccumulation. The increase in Hg deposition to these systems over the past century, coupled with their limited exposure to direct anthropogenic disturbance make them useful indicators for estimating how changes in Hg emissions may propagate to changes in Hg bioaccumulation and ecological risk. In this study, we evaluated Hg concentrations in fishes of high-elevation, sub-alpine lakes in the Wallowa-Whitman National Forest in northeastern Oregon and western Idaho. Our goals were to (1) assess the magnitude of Hg contamination in small-catchment lakes to evaluate the risk of atmospheric Hg to human and wildlife health, (2) quantify the spatial variability in fish Hg concentrations, and (3) determine the ecological, limnological, and landscape factors that are best correlated with fish total mercury (THg) concentrations in these systems. Across the 28 study lakes, mean THg concentrations of resident salmonid fishes varied as much as 18-fold among lakes. Importantly, our top statistical model explained 87 percent of the variability in fish THg concentrations among lakes with four key landscape and limnological variables— catchment conifer density (basal area of conifers within a lake’s catchment), lake surface area, aqueous dissolved sulfate, and dissolved organic carbon. The basal area of conifers within a lake’s catchment was by far the most important variable explaining fish THg concentrations, with an increase in THg concentrations of more than 400 percent across the forest density spectrum. Across all study lakes, fish THg concentrations ranged from 0.004 to 0.438 milligrams per kilogram wet weight (mg/kg ww). Only a single individual fish sample exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (USEPA) human health tissue residue criteria of 0.3 mg/kg ww. However, 54 percent of fish (N=177) exceeded the more stringent tissue residue criteria (0.04 mg/kg ww) adopted by the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality to better protect subsistence fishers. Additionally, 2 and 10 percent of fish exceeded levels associated with reduced common loon reproduction and behavior, respectively. Whereas 25 and 68 percent of fish sampled exceeded concentrations deemed protective of mink and kingfisher, respectively. These results suggest that THg concentrations may be present in these lakes at levels associated with ecological risk. It is important to note however, that accurate inference on potential impairment cannot be made within the context of this study design and further research is needed to better quantify these risks.

Oregon;Idaho↗
USGS2019

Moving at the speed of flight: Dabbling duck-movement rates and the relationship with electronic tracking interval

Context. Effective wildlife management requires information on habitat and resource needs, which can be estimated with movement information and modelling energetics. One necessary component of avian models is flight speeds at multiple temporal scales. Technology has limited the ability to accurately assess flight speeds, leading to estimates of questionable accuracy, many of which have not been updated in almost a century. Aims. We aimed to update flight speeds of ducks, and differentiate between migratory and non-migratory flight speeds, a detail that was unclear in previous estimates. We also analysed the difference in speeds of migratory and non-migratory flights, and quantified how data collected at different temporal intervals affected estimates of flight speed. Methods. We tracked six California dabbling duck species with high spatio-temporal resolution GPS–GSM transmitters, calculated speeds of different flight types, and modelled how estimates varied by flight and data interval (30 min to 6 h). Key results. Median migratory speeds were faster (but non-significant) for the larger mallard (Anas platyrhynchos; 82.5 km h–1), northern pintail (Anas acuta; 79.0 km h–1) and gadwall (Mareca strepera; 70.6 km h–1), than the smaller-bodied northern shoveler (Spatula clypeata; 65.7 km h–1), cinnamon teal (Spatula cyanoptera; 63.5 km h–1) and American wigeon (Mareca Americana; 52 km h–1). Migratory flights were faster than non-migratory flights for all species and speeds were consistently slower with an increasing data interval. Implications. The need to balance time and energy requirements may drive different speeds for migratory and non-migratory flights. Lower speeds at longer intervals are likely to be due to a greater proportion of ‘loafing’ time included in flighted segments, demonstrating that data acquired at different intervals provide a means to evaluate and estimate behaviours that influence speed estimation. Shorter-interval data should be the most accurate, but longer-interval data may be easier to collect over lengthier timeframes, so it may be expedient to trade-off a degree of accuracy in broad-scale studies for the larger dataset. Our updated flight speeds for dabbling duck species can be used to parameterise and validate energetics models, guide management decisions regarding optimal habitat distribution, and, ultimately, improve conservation management of wetlands for waterfowl.

Wildlife Research↗
USGS2022

Seasonality of precipitation in the southwestern United States during the late Pleistocene inferred from stable isotopes in herbivore tooth enamel

The late Pleistocene was a climatically dynamic period, with abrupt shifts between cool-wet and warm-dry conditions. Increased effective precipitation supported large pluvial lakes and long-lived spring ecosystems in valleys and basins throughout the western and southwestern U.S., but the source and seasonality of the increased precipitation are debated. Increases in the proportions of C 4 /(C 4 + C 3 ) grasses in the diets of large grazers have been ascribed both to increases in summer precipitation and lower atmospheric CO 2 levels. Here we present stable carbon and oxygen isotope data from tooth enamel of late Pleistocene herbivores recovered from paleowetland deposits at Tule Spring Fossil Beds National Monument in the Las Vegas Valley of southern Nevada, as well as modern herbivores from the surrounding area. We use these data to investigate whether winter or summer precipitation was responsible for driving the relatively wet hydroclimate conditions that prevailed in the region during the late Pleistocene. We also evaluate whether late Pleistocene grass C 4 /(C 4 + C 3 ) was higher than today, and potential drivers of any changes. Tooth enamel δ 18 O values for Pleistocene Equus , Bison , and Mammuthus are generally low (average 22.0 ± 0.7‰, 2 s.e., VSMOW) compared to modern equids (27.8 ± 1.5‰), and imply lower water δ 18 O values (−16.1 ± 0.8‰) than modern precipitation (−10.5‰) or in waters present in active springs and wells in the Las Vegas Valley (−12.9‰), an area dominated by winter precipitation. In contrast, tooth enamel of Camelops (a browser) generally yielded higher δ 18 O values (23.9 ± 1.1‰), possibly suggesting drought tolerance. Mean δ 13 C values for the Pleistocene grazers (−6.6 ± 0.7‰, 2 s.e., VPDB) are considerably higher than for modern equids (−9.6 ± 0.4‰) and indicate more consumption of C 4 grass (17 ± 5%) than today (4 ± 4%). However, calculated C 4 grass consumption in the late Pleistocene is strikingly lower than the proportion of C 4 grass taxa currently present in the valley (55–60%). δ 13 C values in Camelops tooth enamel (−7.7 ± 1.0‰) are interpreted as reflecting moderate consumption (14 ± 8%) of Atriplex (saltbush), a C 4 shrub that flourishes in regions with hot, dry summers. Lower water δ 18 O values, lower abundance of C 4 grasses, and the inferred presence of Atriplex are all consistent with general circulation models for the late Pleistocene that show enhanced delivery of winter precipitation, sourced from the north Pacific, into the interior western U.S. but do not support alternative models that infer enhanced delivery of summer precipitation, sourced from the tropics. In addition, we hypothesize that dietary competition among the diverse and abundant Pleistocene fauna may have driven the grazers analyzed here to feed preferentially on C 4 grasses. Dietary partitioning, especially when combined with decreased p CO2 levels during the late Pleistocene, can explain the relatively high δ 13 C values observed in late Pleistocene grazers in the Las Vegas Valley and elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. without requiring additional summer precipitation. Pleistocene hydroclimate parameters derived from dietary and floral records may need to be reevaluated in the context of the potential effects of dietary preferences and lower p CO2 levels on the stability of C 3 vs. C 4 plants.

Nevada↗
USGS2010

Coherence of Mach fronts during heterogeneous supershear earthquake rupture propagation: Simulations and comparison with observations

We study how heterogeneous rupture propagation affects the coherence of shear and Rayleigh Mach wavefronts radiated by supershear earthquakes. We address this question using numerical simulations of ruptures on a planar, vertical strike-slip fault embedded in a three-dimensional, homogeneous, linear elastic half-space. Ruptures propagate spontaneously in accordance with a linear slip-weakening friction law through both homogeneous and heterogeneous initial shear stress fields. In the 3-D homogeneous case, rupture fronts are curved owing to interactions with the free surface and the finite fault width; however, this curvature does not greatly diminish the coherence of Mach fronts relative to cases in which the rupture front is constrained to be straight, as studied by Dunham and Bhat (2008a). Introducing heterogeneity in the initial shear stress distribution causes ruptures to propagate at speeds that locally fluctuate above and below the shear wave speed. Calculations of the Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) of ground velocity time histories corroborate the kinematic results of Bizzarri and Spudich (2008a): (1) The ground motion of a supershear rupture is richer in high frequency with respect to a subshear one. (2) When a Mach pulse is present, its high frequency content overwhelms that arising from stress heterogeneity. Present numerical experiments indicate that a Mach pulse causes approximately an ω −1.7 high frequency falloff in the FAS of ground displacement. Moreover, within the context of the employed representation of heterogeneities and over the range of parameter space that is accessible with current computational resources, our simulations suggest that while heterogeneities reduce peak ground velocity and diminish the coherence of the Mach fronts, ground motion at stations experiencing Mach pulses should be richer in high frequencies compared to stations without Mach pulses. In contrast to the foregoing theoretical results, we find no average elevation of 5%-damped absolute response spectral accelerations (SA) in the period band 0.05–0.4 s observed at stations that presumably experienced Mach pulses during the 1979 Imperial Valley, 1999 Kocaeli, and 2002 Denali Fault earthquakes compared to SA observed at non-Mach pulse stations in the same earthquakes. A 20% amplification of short period SA is seen only at a few of the Imperial Valley stations closest to the fault. This lack of elevated SA suggests that either Mach pulses in real earthquakes are even more incoherent that in our simulations or that Mach pulses are vulnerable to attenuation through nonlinear soil response. In any case, this result might imply that current engineering models of high frequency earthquake ground motions do not need to be modified by more than 20% close to the fault to account for Mach pulses, provided that the existing data are adequately representative of ground motions from supershear earthquakes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2011

Stratigraphy and depositional environments of the upper Pleistocene Chemehuevi Formation along the lower Colorado River

The Chemehuevi Formation forms a conspicuous, widespread, and correlative set of nonmarine sediments lining the valleys of the Colorado River and several of its larger tributaries in the Basin and Range geologic province. These sediments have been examined by geologists since J. S. Newberry visited the region in 1857 and are widely cited in the geologic literature; however their origin remains unresolved and their stratigraphic context has been confused by inconsistent nomenclature and by conflicting interpretations of their origin. This is one of the most prominent stratigraphic units along the river below the Grand Canyon, and the formation records an important event or set of events in the history of the Colorado River. Here we summarize what is known about these deposits throughout their range, present new stratigraphic, sedimentologic, topographic, and tephrochronologic data, and formally define them as a lithostratigraphic unit. The Chemehuevi Formation consists primarily of a bluff-forming mud facies, consisting of gypsum-bearing, horizontally bedded sand, silt, and clay, and a slope-forming sand facies containing poorly bedded, well sorted, quartz rich sand and scattered gravel. The sedimentary characteristics and fossil assemblages of the two facies types suggest that they were deposited in flood plain and channel environments, respectively. In addition to these two primary facies, we identify three other mappable facies in the formation: a thick-bedded rhythmite facies, now drowned by Lake Mead; a valley-margin facies containing abundant locally derived sediment; and several tributary facies consisting of mixed fluvial and lacustrine deposits in the lower parts of major tributary valleys. Observations from the subsurface and at outcrops near the elevation of the modern flood plain suggest that the formation also contains a regional basal gravel member. Surveys of numerous outcrops using high-precision GPS demonstrate that although the sand facies commonly overlies the mud facies where the two are found together, contacts between the two occur over a range in elevation, and as a consequence, the sand and mud facies are similarly distributed both horizontally and vertically throughout the valley. Collectively, the outcrops of the formation lie below a smooth elevation envelope that slopes 50 percent more steeply than the historic (pre-Hoover Dam) valley, from nearly 150 m above the historic flood plain near the mouth of the Grand Canyon to less than 30 m above the flood plain at the head of the flood plain near Yuma, Arizona. The steepness of the valley at the peak of aggradation probably represents a depositional slope. Layers of fine grained volcanic tephra have been found below and within the Chemehuevi Formation at five widely separated sites, one of which is now submerged beneath Lake Mead. Major element geochemistry of glass shards from the four accessible tephra sites were analyzed. Three of the sampled tephra layers are interbedded within the Chemehuevi Formation, and a fourth tephra conformably underlies the formation. The three interbedded tephra layers are similar enough to one another that they are probably from the same eruptive unit, hereafter referred to as the Monkey Rock tephra bed. The other sample, which locally underlies the formation, is similar enough to the Monkey Rock tephra bed to suggest it is from the same volcanic source area; however, it may not be from the same eruption, and thus may not be the same age. On the basis of the stratigraphic contexts of chemically similar tephra layers found elsewhere in the Basin and Range, we suspect that the source area is the Mammoth Mountain dome complex in Long Valley, east-central California. Two samples of proximal Mammoth Mountain pumice were analyzed and produced geochemical signatures similar to all four of the Chemehuevi Formation tephra, supporting Mammoth Mountain as a possible source area. The Mammoth Mountain volcanic center produced eruptions between about 111±2 and 57±2 ka and was most active in the later part of this time interval, during Marine Oxygen Isotope (MOI) stage 4 (between 74 and 59 ka ago). Chemically similar tephra in cores from Owens Lake and Walker Lake are approximately 70 and 74 ky old, based on age models of those cores. Other lines of stratigraphic evidence from nine tephra-containing sections in the Basin and Range are also consistent with an age assignment for the Monkey Rock tephra of ~72 ky, near the beginning of MOI stage 4. We propose to designate the Chemehuevi Formation as a formal lithostratigraphic unit, and propose as the type section a well exposed outcrop near the ranger station at Katherine Landing, Arizona, in the Lake Mead National Recreation Area. This exposure shows the two dominant facies, an example of one of the four known tephra layers, and interbedded lenses of locally derived gravel. In the type section, as in many of the other examples of the formation, the sand facies overlies the mud facies on a conspicuous, abrupt erosional surface; however, nearby is a contiguous section demonstrating that the mud and sand facies interfinger. In addition to the type section, measured reference sections compiled here illustrate other important lithologic and stratigraphic features of the formation. Our preferred interpretation of the Chemehuevi Formation is that it contains the remnants of deposits formed during a single major episode of fluvial aggradation, during which the Colorado River filled its valley with a great volume of dominantly sand-size sediment. This would reflect an increase in the supply of sand-size sediment, and(or) a reduction in transport capacity below the mouth of Grand Canyon. The most likely cause for the aggradation is an extraordinary increase in sand supply, likely due to widespread climatic change. However, other explanations have not been ruled out. Other aggradation events predated the Chemehuevi Formation, and some smaller events may have postdated the formation. However, the Chemehuevi Formation contains the remnants of the most recent large magnitude (>100 m) aggradation of the Colorado River.

California;Nevada;Arizona↗
USGS2017

Groundwater quality in the Western San Joaquin Valley study unit, 2010: California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Water quality in groundwater resources used for public drinking-water supply in the Western San Joaquin Valley (WSJV) was investigated by the USGS in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) as part of its Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program Priority Basin Project. The WSJV includes two study areas: the Delta–Mendota and Westside subbasins of the San Joaquin Valley groundwater basin. Study objectives for the WSJV study unit included two assessment types: (1) a status assessment yielding quantitative estimates of the current (2010) status of groundwater quality in the groundwater resources used for public drinking water, and (2) an evaluation of natural and anthropogenic factors that could be affecting the groundwater quality. The assessments characterized the quality of untreated groundwater, not the quality of treated drinking water delivered to consumers by water distributors. The status assessment was based on data collected from 43 wells sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey for the GAMA Priority Basin Project (USGS-GAMA) in 2010 and data compiled in the SWRCB Division of Drinking Water (SWRCB-DDW) database for 74 additional public-supply wells sampled for regulatory compliance purposes between 2007 and 2010. To provide context, concentrations of constituents measured in groundwater were compared to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and SWRCB-DDW regulatory and non-regulatory benchmarks for drinking-water quality. The status assessment used a spatially weighted, grid-based method to estimate the proportion of the groundwater resources used for public drinking water that has concentrations for particular constituents or class of constituents approaching or above benchmark concentrations. This method provides statistically unbiased results at the study-area scale within the WSJV study unit, and permits comparison of the two study areas to other areas assessed by the GAMA Priority Basin Project statewide. Groundwater resources used for public drinking water in the WSJV study unit are among the most saline and most affected by high concentrations of inorganic constituents of all groundwater resources used for public drinking water that have been assessed by the GAMA Priority Basin Project statewide. Among the 82 GAMA Priority Basin Project study areas statewide, the Delta–Mendota study area ranked above the 90th percentile for aquifer-scale proportions of groundwater resources having concentrations of total dissolved solids (TDS), sulfate, chloride, manganese, boron, chromium(VI), selenium, and strontium above benchmarks, and the Westside study area ranked above the 90th percentile for TDS, sulfate, manganese, and boron. In the WSJV study unit as a whole, one or more inorganic constituents with regulatory or non-regulatory, health-based benchmarks were present at concentrations above benchmarks in about 53 percent of the groundwater resources used for public drinking water, and one or more organic constituents with regulatory health-based benchmarks were detected at concentrations above benchmarks in about 3 percent of the resource. Individual constituents present at concentrations greater than health-based benchmarks in greater than 2 percent of groundwater resources used for public drinking water included: boron (51 percent, SWRCB-DDW notification level), chromium(VI) (25 percent, SWRCB-DDW maximum contaminant level (MCL)), arsenic (10 percent, EPA MCL), strontium (5.1 percent, EPA Lifetime health advisory level (HAL)), nitrate (3.9 percent, EPA MCL), molybdenum (3.8 percent, EPA HAL), selenium (2.6 percent, EPA MCL), and benzene (2.6 percent, SWRCB-DDW MCL). In addition, 50 percent of the resource had TDS concentrations greater than non-regulatory, aesthetic-based SWRCB-DDW upper secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL), and 44 percent had manganese concentrations greater than the SWRCB-DDW SMCL. Natural and anthropogenic factors that could affect the groundwater quality were evaluated by using results from statistical testing of associations between constituent concentrations and values of potential explanatory factors, inferences from geochemical and age-dating tracer results, and by considering the water-quality results in the context of the hydrogeologic setting of the WSJV study unit. Natural factors, particularly the lithologies of the source areas for groundwater recharge and of the aquifers, were the dominant factors affecting groundwater quality in most of the WSJV study unit. However, where groundwater resources used for public supply included groundwater recharged in the modern era, mobilization of constituents by recharge of water used for irrigation also affected groundwater quality. Public-supply wells in the Westside study area had a median depth of 305 m and primarily tapped groundwater recharged hundreds to thousands of years ago, whereas public-supply wells in the Delta–Mendota study area had a median depth of 85 m and primarily tapped either groundwater recharged within the last 60 years or groundwater consisting of mixtures of this modern recharge and older recharge. Public-supply wells in the WSJV study unit are screened in the Tulare Formation and zones above and below the Corcoran Clay Member are used. The Tulare Formation primarily consists of alluvial sediments derived from the Coast Ranges to the west, except along the valley trough at the eastern margin of the WSJV study unit where the Tulare Formation consists of fluvial sands derived from the Sierra Nevada to the east. Groundwater from wells screened in the Sierra Nevada sands had manganese-reducing or manganese- and iron-reducing oxidation-reduction (redox) conditions. These redox conditions commonly were associated with elevated arsenic or molybdenum concentrations, and the dominance of arsenic(III) in the dissolved arsenic supports reductive dissolution of iron and manganese oxyhydroxides as the mechanism. In addition, groundwater from many wells screened in Sierra Nevada sands contained low concentrations of nitrite or ammonium, indicating reduction of nitrate by denitrification or dissimilatory processes, respectively. Geology of the Coast Ranges westward of the study unit strongly affects groundwater quality in the WSJV. Elevated concentrations of TDS, sulfate, boron, selenium and strontium in groundwater were primarily associated with aquifer sediments and recharge derived from areas of the Coast Ranges dominated by Cretaceous-to-Miocene age, organic-rich, reduced marine shales, known as the source of selenium in WSJV soils, surface water, and groundwater. Low sulfur-isotopic values (δ34S) of dissolved sulfate indicate that the sulfate was largely derived from oxidation of biogenic pyrite from the shales, and correlations with trace element concentrations, geologic setting, and groundwater geochemical modeling indicated that distributions of sulfate, strontium, and selenium in groundwater were controlled by dissolution of secondary sulfate minerals in soils and sediments. Elevated concentrations of chromium(VI) were primarily associated with aquifer sediments and recharge derived from areas of the Coast Ranges dominated by the Franciscan Complex and ultramafic rocks. The Franciscan Complex also has boron-rich, sodium-chloride dominated hydrothermal fluids that contribute to elevated concentrations of boron and TDS. Groundwater from wells screened in Coast Ranges alluvium was primarily oxic and relatively alkaline (median pH value of 7.55) in the Delta–Mendota study area, and primarily nitrate-reducing or suboxic and alkaline (median pH value of 8.4) in the Westside study area. Many groundwater samples from those wells have elevated concentrations of arsenic(V), molybdenum, selenium, or chromium(VI), consistent with desorption of metal oxyanions from mineral surfaces under those geochemical conditions. High concentrations of benzene were associated with deep wells located in the vicinity of petroleum deposits at the southern end of the Westside study area. Groundwater from these wells had premodern age and anoxic geochemical conditions, and the ratios among concentrations of hydrocarbon constituents were different from ratios found in fuels and combustion products, which is consistent with a geogenic source for the benzene rather than contamination from anthropogenic sources. Water stable-isotope compositions, groundwater recharge temperatures, and groundwater ages were used to infer four types of groundwater: (1) groundwater derived from natural recharge of water from major rivers draining the Sierra Nevada; (2) groundwater primarily derived from natural recharge of water from Coast Ranges runoff; (3) groundwater derived from recharge of pumped groundwater applied to the land surface for irrigation; and (4) groundwater derived from recharge during a period of much cooler paleoclimate. Water previously used for irrigation was found both above and below the Corcoran Clay, supporting earlier inferences that this clay member is no longer a robust confining unit. Recharge of water used for irrigation has direct and indirect effects on groundwater quality. Elevated nitrate concentrations and detections of herbicides and fumigants in the Delta–Mendota study area generally were associated with greater agricultural land use near the well and with water recharged during the last 60 years. However, the extent of the groundwater resource affected by agricultural sources of nitrate was limited by groundwater redox conditions sufficient to reduce nitrate. The detection frequency of perchlorate in Delta–Mendota groundwater was greater than expected for natural conditions. Perchlorate, nitrate, selenium, and strontium concentrations were correlated with one another and were greater in groundwater inferred to be recharge of previously pumped groundwater used for irrigation. The source of the perchlorate, selenium, and strontium appears to be salts deposited in the soils and sediments of the arid WSJV that are dissolved and flushed into groundwater by the increased amount of recharge caused by irrigation. In the Delta–Mendota study area, the groundwater with elevated concentrations of selenium was found deeper in the aquifer system than it was reported by a previous study 25 years earlier, suggesting that this transient front of groundwater with elevated concentrations of constituents derived from dissolution of soil salts by irrigation recharge is moving down through the aquifer system and is now reaching the depth zone used for public drinking water supply.

California↗
USGS2013

Sediment distribution and hydrologic conditions of the Potomac aquifer in Virginia and parts of Maryland and North Carolina

Sediments of the heavily used Potomac aquifer broadly contrast across major structural features of the Atlantic Coastal Plain Physiographic Province in eastern Virginia and adjacent parts of Maryland and North Carolina. Thicknesses and relative dominance of the highly interbedded fluvial sediments vary regionally. Vertical intervals in boreholes of coarse-grained sediment commonly targeted for completion of water-supply wells are thickest and most widespread across the central and southern parts of the Virginia Coastal Plain. Designated as the Norfolk arch depositional subarea, the entire sediment thickness here functions hydraulically as a single interconnected aquifer. By contrast, coarse-grained sediment intervals are thinner and less widespread across the northern part of the Virginia Coastal Plain and into southern Maryland, designated as the Salisbury embayment depositional subarea. Fine-grained intervals that are generally avoided for completion of water-supply wells are increasingly thick and widespread northward. Fine-grained intervals collectively as thick as several hundred feet comprise two continuous confining units that hydraulically separate three vertically spaced subaquifers. The subaquifers are continuous northward but merge southward into the single undivided Potomac aquifer. Lastly, far southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina are designated as the Albemarle embayment depositional subarea, where both coarse- and fine-grained intervals are of only moderate thickness. The entire sediment thickness functions hydraulically as a single interconnected aquifer. A substantial hydrologic separation from overlying aquifers is imposed by the upper Cenomanian confining unit. Potomac aquifer sediments were deposited by a fluvial depositional complex spanning the Virginia Coastal Plain approximately 100 to 145 million years ago. Westward, persistently uplifted granite and gneiss source rocks sustained a supply of coarse-grained sand and gravel. Immature, high-gradient braided streams deposited longitudinal bars and channel fills across the Norfolk arch subarea. By contrast, across the Salisbury and Albemarle embayment subareas, mature, medium- to low-gradient meandering streams deposited medium- to coarse-grained channel fills and point bars segregated from fine-grained overbank deposits. The Virginia depositional complex merged northward across the Salisbury embayment subarea with another complex in Maryland. Here, additional sediments were received from schist source rocks that underwent three cycles of initial uplift and rapid erosion followed by crustal stability and erosional leveling. Because of the predominance of coarse-grained sediments, transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, and regional velocities of lateral flow through the Potomac aquifer are greatest across the Norfolk arch depositional subarea, but decrease progressively northward with increasingly fine-grained sediments. Confining units hydraulically separate the Potomac aquifer from overlying aquifers, as indicated by large vertical hydraulic gradients. By contrast, most of the Potomac aquifer internally functions hydraulically as a single interconnected aquifer, as indicated by uniformly small vertical gradients. Most fine-grained sediments within the aquifer do not hydraulically separate overlying and underlying coarse-grained sediments. Across the Salisbury embayment depositional subarea, however, hydraulic separation among the vertically spaced subaquifers is imposed by the intervening confining units. The Potomac aquifer is the largest and most heavily used source of groundwater in the Virginia Coastal Plain. Water-level declines as great as 200 feet create the potential for saltwater intrusion. Conventional stratigraphic correlation has been generally ineffective at accurately characterizing complexly distributed fluvial sediments that compose the Potomac aquifer. Consequently, the aquifer’s internal hydraulic connectivity and overall hydrologic function have not been well understood. Water-supply planning and development efforts have been hampered, and interpretations of regulatory criteria for allowable water-level declines have been ambiguous. An investigation undertaken during 2010–11 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, provides a comprehensive regional description of the spatial distribution of Potomac aquifer sediments and their relation to hydrologic conditions. Altitudes and thicknesses of 2,725 vertical sediment intervals represent the spatial distribution of Potomac aquifer sediments in the Virginia Coastal Plain and adjacent parts of Maryland and North Carolina. Sediment intervals are designated as either dominantly coarse or fine grained and were determined by interpretation of geophysical logs and ancillary information from 456 boreholes. Sediment-interval and borehole summary statistical data indicate regional trends in sediment lithology and stratigraphic continuity, upon which three structurally based and hydrologically distinct sediment depositional subareas are designated. Broad patterns of sediment deposition over time are inferred from published sediment pollen-age data. Discrepancies in previously drawn hydrostratigraphic relations between southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina are partly resolved based on borehole geophysical logs and a recently documented geologic map and corehole. A conceptual model theorizes the depositional history of the sediments and geologically accounts for their distribution. Documented pumping tests of the Potomac aquifer at 197 locations produced 336 values of transmissivity and 127 values of storativity. Based on effective aquifer thicknesses, 296 values of sediment hydraulic conductivity and 113 values of sediment specific storage are calculated. Vertical hydraulic gradients are calculated from 9,479 pairs of water levels measured between November 17, 1953, and October 4, 2011, in 129 closely spaced pairs of wells. Borehole sediment-interval and related data provide a means to achieve high yielding production wells in the Potomac aquifer by site-specific targeting of drilling operations toward water-bearing coarse-grained sand and gravel. Advance knowledge of the potential of different parts of the aquifer also aids in planning optimal groundwater-development areas. Depositional subareas further provide a possible context for resource management. Current (2013) regulatory limits on water-level declines are relative to top surfaces of subdivided upper, middle, and lower Potomac aquifers across the entire Virginia Coastal Plain, but have the potential to exceed the same limit relative to a single undivided Potomac aquifer. By contrast, designation of the sediments as a single aquifer in the Norfolk arch and Albemarle embayment subareas—and as a series of vertically spaced subaquifers and intervening confining units in the Salisbury embayment subarea—best reflects understanding of the Potomac aquifer and can avoid the potential for excessive water-level declines. Simulation modeling to evaluate effects of groundwater withdrawals could be designed similarly, including vertical discretization and (or) zonation of the Potomac aquifer based on depositional subareas and a geostatistical distribution of aquifer properties derived from borehole sediment-interval data. Further resource-management information needs extend beyond the developed part of the Potomac aquifer, particularly across the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula where only the shallowest part of the aquifer is known, and include structural aspects such as faults, basement bedrock, and the Chesapeake Bay impact crater.

Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia↗
USGS2009

Remote sensing of global croplands for food security: Way forward

This book opens a new pathway for global mapping that is focused on a specific land use theme, such as irrigated or rain-fed croplands and classes within these themes. Since croplands use most of the water consumed by humans, specific knowledge of irrigated and rain-fed croplands will be critical for precise estimates of water use. At present and in the coming decades, irrigated and rain-fed cropland area mapping is crucial for food security studies. Throughout this book, various subjects pertaining to global croplands are discussed comprehensively.

Book chapter↗
USGS2014

Linkage of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and the Texas Water Availability Model to simulate the effects of brush management on monthly storage of Canyon Lake, south-central Texas, 1995-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, developed and applied an approach to create a linkage between the published upper Guadalupe River Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) brush-management (ashe juniper [ Juniperus ashei ]) model and the full authorization version Guadalupe River Water Availability Model (WAM). The SWAT model was published by the USGS, and the Guadalupe River WAM is available from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The upper Guadalupe River watershed is a substantial component of the Guadalupe River WAM. This report serves in part as documentation of a proof of concept on the feasibility of linking these two water-resources planning models for the purpose of simulating possible increases in water storage in Canyon Lake as a result of different brush-management scenarios. The SWAT-WAM linkage for the upper Guadalupe River is documented with a principal objective to evaluate the distributional characteristics of the monthly water storage of Canyon Lake during selected drought conditions. Focus is on the relative evaluation of select scenarios of large-scale or “extensive” brush management within the upper Guadalupe River watershed. There are six SWAT simulations for the upper Guadalupe River watershed that include a baseline (0-percent management of treatable ashe juniper, the baseline scenario from a previous study in which no percentage of ashe juniper is numerically replaced with grassland) along with five scenarios (extensions of SWAT simulations from a previous study) of 20-, 40-, 60-, 80-, and 100-percent random (numerical) replacement of treatable ashe juniper with grasslands throughout the upper Guadalupe River watershed in south-central Texas. SWAT is a process-based, semidistributed, water-balance model designed to predict the effects of landscape management decisions on water yields. A watershed is subdivided into subbasins, and each subbasin is associated with a single reach on the stream network. In general a WAM, such as the Guadalupe River WAM, provides analysis of generalized water rights in a river and reservoir framework. A WAM accommodates hydrology and water usage through several input files containing water rights, watershed parameters, and naturalized streamflow time series. A WAM is generalized for application to rivers and reservoir systems, and input datasets are uniquely developed for a river basin of concern. The extractions of SWAT output for the five extensive brush-management and baseline scenarios were offset by –21 years and, in general, the results were then mapped to the WAM input-flow file. The offset of –21 years was chosen arbitrarily for technical reasons and means that the period of monthly record 1995–2010 of the upper Guadalupe River SWAT became the synthetic period of monthly record 1974–89, hereinafter 1974–89 (synthetic) period, of the Guadalupe River WAM. The relative (between scenario to baseline) effects of extensive brush-management scenarios by using the SWAT-WAM linkage were evaluated, and two critical intermediate results were total inflow to Canyon Lake from 1995 to 2010 and the monthly storage of Canyon Lake from 1974 to 1989 (synthetic). The first quartile or lower 25th percentile of monthly storage of Canyon Lake for the baseline scenario is 381,000 acre-feet (acre-ft) for the hereinafter 1974–89 (synthetic) period. This lower quartile was chosen for analysis for two critical purposes. First, Canyon Lake is managed with a conservation pool of about 386,200 acre-ft capacity (as recognized by the WAM) and is at or near conservation capacity about 50 percent or more of the time; further, there is intrinsic data censoring that occurs for the monthly storage distribution because Canyon Lake is at or near conservation pool elevation the majority of the time. This intrinsic censoring has the effect of creating a bounded distribution with a left or low-volume tail. Statistical assessment of the brush-management scenarios beginning with the 381,000 acre-ft censoring threshold provides readily interpretable results. Second, the quantification of brush management during periods lacking abundant rainfall, which were defined in this study as months for which Canyon Lake storage was below the 25th percentile for the simulation period, are of substantial interest to water-resource managers and stakeholders in the context of water-supply enhancement. A statistical assessment of the SWAT-WAM linkage for the low-volume tail of the distribution of monthly storage of Canyon Lake is the focus of analysis and interpretation. Drought periods for the analysis are defined as the months (consecutive or not) during which Canyon Lake is below the 25th percentile of storage (381,000 acre-ft) for the baseline scenario. Such months are referred to as being within the “Drought Quartile.” The Drought Quartile is a conceptual and heuristically determined waypoint for the analysis and is not related to any administrative definition of drought by stakeholders or policy makers. The five scenarios and the baseline scenario simulated in the upper Guadalupe River SWAT were all passed through the Guadalupe River WAM by the SWAT-WAM linkage described in this report. A comparison of the mean increase per month in reservoir storage for Canyon Lake conditioned for the Drought Quartile was made. For each of the five brush-management and baseline scenarios, the months with storage below 381,000 acre-ft were extracted. The mean monthly storages during the Drought Quartile were computed for each of the five scenarios and the baseline scenario. The mean of the baseline scenario was 376,458 acre-ft and subsequently was subtracted from the mean monthly storage during the Drought Quartile for each of the five scenarios. The mean monthly offset storages of Canyon Lake during the Drought Quartile were 110 acre-ft (20 percent); 448 acre-ft (40 percent); 754 acre-ft (60 percent); 1,080 acre-ft (80 percent); and 1,090 acre-ft (100 percent). A particular mean was interpreted as follows: the value of 754 acre-ft for the 60-percent brush-management scenario implies that, on average, this scenario indicates an additional 754 acre-ft per month of storage in Canyon Lake relative to the baseline during the Drought Quartile. All of the five scenarios resulted in an increase on average to water supply relative to the baseline scenario during the Drought Quartile through the SWAT-WAM linkage.

Texas↗