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USGS2004

Revisiting the 23 February 1892 Laguna Salada earthquake

According to some compilations, the Laguna Salada, Baja California, earthquake of 23 February 1892 ranks among the largest earthquakes in California and Baja California in historic times. Although surface rupture was not documented at the time of the earthquake, recent geologic investigations have identified and mapped a rupture on the Laguna Salada fault that can be associated with high probability with the 1892 event (Mueller and Rockwell, 1995). The only intensity-based magnitude estimate for the earthquake, M 7.8, was made by Strand (1980) based on an interpretation of macroseismic effects and a comparison of isoseismal areas with those from instrumentally recorded earthquakes. In this study we reinterpret original accounts of the Laguna Salada earthquake. We assign modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) values in keeping with current practice, focusing on objective descriptions of damage rather than subjective human response and not assigning MMI values to effects that are now known to be poor indicators of shaking level, such as liquefaction and rockfalls. The reinterpreted isoseismal contours and the estimated magnitude are both significantly smaller than those obtained earlier. Using the method of Bakun and Wentworth (1997) we obtain a magnitude estimate of M 7.2 and an optimal epicenter less than 15 km from the center of the mapped Laguna Salada rupture. The isoseismal contours are elongated toward the northwest, which is qualitatively consistent with a directivity effect, assuming that the fault ruptured from southeast to northwest. We suggest that the elongation may also thus reflect wave propagation effects, with more efficient propagation of crustal surface (Lg) waves in the direction of the overall regional tectonic fabric.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2020

Regionally Optimized Background Earthquake Rates from ETAS (ROBERE) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

We use an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) based approach to develop a regionally optimized background earthquake rates from ETAS (ROBERE) method for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. ROBERE fits parameters to the full seismicity catalog for a region with maximum‐likelihood estimation, including uncertainty. It then averages the earthquake rates over a suite of catalogs from which foreshocks and aftershocks have been removed using stochastic declustering while maintaining the same Gaussian smoothing currently used for the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). The NSHM currently determines these rates by smoothing a single catalog from which foreshocks and aftershocks have been removed using the method of Gardner and Knopoff (1974 ; hereafter, GK74). The parameters used in GK74 were determined from subjectively identified aftershock sequences, unlike ROBERE, in which both background rate and aftershock triggering parameters are objectively fitted. A major difference between the impacts of the two methods is GK74 significantly reduces the b "> b ‐value, a critical value for seismic hazard analysis, whereas ROBERE maintains the original b "> b ‐value from the full catalog. We apply these methods to the induced seismicity in Oklahoma and Kansas and tectonic activity in the San Francisco Bay Region. Using GK74 gives lower overall earthquake rates but estimates higher hazard due to the reduction in the b "> b ‐value. ROBERE provides higher earthquake rates, at the magnitude of completeness, but lower hazard because it does not alter the b "> b ‐value. We test two other declustering methods that produce results closer to ROBERE but do not use objectively fit parameters, include uncertainty, and may not work as well in other areas. We suggest adopting ROBERE for the NSHM so that our hazard estimates are based on an objective analysis, including uncertainty, and do not depend strongly on potentially biased b "> b ‐values, which was never the goal of the existing methodology.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2020

Earthquake magnitude and Lg Q variations between the Grenville and northern Appalachian geologic provinces of eastern Canada

This article assesses the ability of regionally specific, frequency‐dependent crustal attenuation ( ⁠ 1 / Q "> 1 / Q ⁠ ) to reduce mean magnitude discrepancies between seismic stations in the northern Appalachian and Grenville provinces (NAP and GP) of Canada. Lg Q ( f ) "> Q ( f ) is an important parameter in ground‐motion models used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Discrepancies in regional magnitude estimates have long been noted to exist between stations in the two provinces for common event origins. Such discrepancies could arise from systematic site condition variations between the geologic provinces or from varying crustal attenuative properties. To evaluate the effect of frequency‐dependent anelastic attenuation, Lg Q ( f ) "> Q ( f ) on estimated magnitudes, we analyze Lg amplitudes from > 6000 "> > 6000 waveforms recorded by Grenville and northern Appalachian receivers from 420 natural earthquakes of M N "> M N magnitude 3–5.6. Waveform analysis is strictly limited to analyst‐reviewed, vertical‐component waveforms in which Lg is clearly identified, ensuring that the datasets exhibit dominant, high‐frequency energy in the Lg velocity window. Lg Q ( f ) "> Q ( f ) is found to be higher in the GP than in the northern Appalachians. In the Grenville, Q ( f ) = 761 ( ± 145 ) f 0.25 ( ± 0.014 ) "> Q ( f ) = 761 ( ± 145 ) f 0.25 ( ± 0.014 ) ⁠ , and in the northern Appalachians, attenuation is higher: Q ( f ) = 506 ( ± 172 ) f 0.33 ( ± 0.310 ) "> Q ( f ) = 506 ( ± 172 ) f 0.33 ( ± 0.310 ) . Earthquake magnitude determined using the peak amplitude of the Lg phase ( ⁠ m b L g "> m b L g ) for eastern Canada is corrected to incorporate the frequency‐dependent, regionally specific Lg Q ( f ) "> Q ( f ) determined in this study. Using the new Lg Q ( f ) "> Q ( f ) values diminishes and nearly resolves magnitude discrepancies between the provinces. Correcting regional magnitude discrepancies between provinces is critical for reliable regional seismic hazard estimates because magnitude error in a particular region could lead to increased uncertainty in seismic hazard models.

Grenville Geologic Province, Northern Appalachian ↗

USGS1985

Characteristics of the aftershock sequence of the Borah Peak, Idaho, earthquake determined from digital recordings of the events

The U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, deployed and maintained a network of twelve digital instruments over the 2 weeks following the 28 October 1983 Borah Peak, Idaho, earthquake. The network recorded 45 events with M ≧ 3.0, and 6 events with M ≦ 4.0. The epicenters are located in a narrow band which parallels the trace of the surface fauiting up to the Willow Creek summit; the depths of the events range from 5 to 16 km. In the south, the distribution of hypocenters delineate a plane which dips to the southwest at 50°; to the north, the hypocenters dip steeply to the east. Composite focal mechanisms for three groups of events show normal faulting mechanisms; the mechanism of the aftershocks in the north appear rotated in both strike and dip from the aftershocks in the south. The seismic moments of the aftershocks increase with increasing hypocentral depth below 12 km. The dynamic stress drops of the events do not show any systematic variation with depth, however. Most of the events with large stress drops are clustered in the northwest limb of the aftershock distribution; the average stress drop of the southern events is 31 ± 16 bars, while the average stress drop of the events in the northwest limb is 77 ± 52 bars. This clustering of events with large stress drops marks an apparent stress concentration, possibly associated with the arrest of the main shock rupture propagation by a fracture barrier at depth.

Idaho↗

USGS2006

Rupture propagation of the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake from observations at the UPSAR

Using a short-baseline seismic array (U.S. Geological Survey Parkfield Dense Seismograph Array [UPSAR]) about 12 km west of the rupture initiation of the 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake, we have observed the movement of the rupture front of this earthquake on the San Andreas fault. The sources of high-frequency arrivals at UPSAR, which we use to identify the rupture front, are mapped onto the San Andreas fault using their apparent velocity and back azimuth. Measurements of apparent velocity and back azimuth are calibrated using aftershocks, which have a compact source and known location. Aftershock back azimuths show considerable lateral refraction, consistent with a high-velocity ridge on the southwest side of the fault. We infer that the initial mainshock rupture velocity was approximately the Rayleigh speed (with respect to slower side of the fault), and the rupture then slowed to about 0.66?? near the town of Parkfield after 2 sec. The last well-correlated pulse, 4 sec after S, is the largest at UPSAR, and its source is near the region of large accelerations recorded by strong-motion accelerographs and close to northern extent of continuous surface fractures on the southwest fracture zone. Coincidence of sources with preshock and aftershock distributions suggests fault material properties control rupture behavior. High-frequency sources approximately correlate with the edges of asperities identified as regions of high slip derived from inversion of strong-motion waveforms.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2004

Gravity study through the Tualatin Mountains, Oregon: Understanding crustal structure and earthquake hazards in the Portland urban area

A high-resolution gravity survey through the Tualatin Mountains (Portland Nills) west of downtown Portland exhibits evidence of faults previously identified from surface geologic and aeromagnetic mapping. The gravity survey was conducted in 1996 along the 4.5-km length of a twin-bore tunnel, then under construction and now providing light-rail service between downtown Portland and communities west of the Portland Hills. Gravitational attraction gradually increases from west to east inside the tunnel, which reflects the tunnel's location between low-density sedimentary deposits of the Tualatin basin to the west and high-density, mostly concealed Eocene basalt to the east. Superimposed on this gradient are several steplike anomalies that we interpret as evidence for faulted contacts between rocks of contrasting density. The largest of these anomalies occurs beneath Sylvan Creek, where a fault had previously been mapped inside the tunnel. Another occurs 1200 m from the west portal, at the approximate intersection of the tunnel with an aeromagnetic anomaly associated with the Sylvan fault (formerly called the Oatfield fault). Lithologic cross sections based on these gravity data show that the steplike anomalies are consistent with steeply dipping reverse faults, although strike-slip displacements also may be important. Three gravity lows correspond with topographic lows directly overhead and may reflect zones of shearing. Several moderate earthquakes (M ??? 3.5) occurred near the present-day location of the tunnel in 1991, suggesting that some of these faults or other faults in the Portland Hills fault zone are seismically active.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2021

Improved scaling relationships for seismic moment and average slip of strike-slip earthquakes incorporating fault slip rate, fault width and stress drop

We develop a self‐consistent scaling model relating magnitude M w to surface rupture length ( ⁠L E ⁠ ), surface displacement D E ⁠ , and rupture width W E ⁠ , for strike‐slip faults. Knowledge of the long‐term fault‐slip rate S F improves magnitude estimates. Data are collected for 55 ground‐rupturing strike‐slip earthquakes that have geological estimates of L E ⁠ , D E ⁠ , and S F⁠ , and geophysical estimates of W E ⁠ . We begin with the model of Anderson et al. (2017) , which uses a closed form equation for the seismic moment of a surface‐rupturing strike‐slip fault of arbitrary aspect ratio and given stress drop, Δτ C ⁠ . Using W E estimates does not improve M w estimates. However, measurements of D E plus the relationship between Δτ C and surface slip provide an alternate approach to study W E ⁠ . A grid of plausible stress drop and width pairs were used to predict displacement and earthquake magnitude. A likelihood function was computed from within the uncertainty ranges of the corresponding observed M w and D E values. After maximizing likelihoods over earthquakes in length bins, we found the most likely values of W E for constant stress drop; these depend on the rupture length. The best‐fitting model has the surprising form W E ∝logL E —a gentle increase in width with rupture length. Residuals from this model are convincingly correlated to the fault‐slip rate and also show a weak correlation with the crustal thickness. The resulting model thus supports a constant stress drop for ruptures of all lengths, consistent with teleseismic observation. The approach can be extended to test other observable factors that might improve the predictability of magnitude from a mapped fault for seismic hazard analyses.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2017

3D ground‐motion simulations of Mw 7 earthquakes on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault zone: Variability of long‐period (T≥1 s) ground motions and sensitivity to kinematic rupture parameters

We examine the variability of long‐period ( T ≥1 s) earthquake ground motions from 3D simulations of M w 7 earthquakes on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah, from a set of 96 rupture models with varying slip distributions, rupture speeds, slip velocities, and hypocenter locations. Earthquake ruptures were prescribed on a 3D fault representation that satisfies geologic constraints and maintained distinct strands for the Warm Springs and for the East Bench and Cottonwood faults. Response spectral accelerations (SA; 1.5–10 s; 5% damping) were measured, and average distance scaling was well fit by a simple functional form that depends on the near‐source intensity level SA 0 ( T ) and a corner distance R c :SA( R , T )=SA 0 ( T )(1+( R / R c )) −1 . Period‐dependent hanging‐wall effects manifested and increased the ground motions by factors of about 2–3, though the effects appeared partially attributable to differences in shallow site response for sites on the hanging wall and footwall of the fault. Comparisons with modern ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) found that the simulated ground motions were generally consistent, except within deep sedimentary basins, where simulated ground motions were greatly underpredicted. Ground‐motion variability exhibited strong lateral variations and, at some sites, exceeded the ground‐motion variability indicated by GMPEs. The effects on the ground motions of changing the values of the five kinematic rupture parameters can largely be explained by three predominant factors: distance to high‐slip subevents, dynamic stress drop, and changes in the contributions from directivity. These results emphasize the need for further characterization of the underlying distributions and covariances of the kinematic rupture parameters used in 3D ground‐motion simulations employed in probabilistic seismic‐hazard analyses.

Utah↗

USGS2013

Spatial variability of "Did You Feel It?" intensity data: insights into sampling biases in historical earthquake intensity distributions

Recent parallel development of improved quantitative methods to analyze intensity distributions for historical earthquakes and of web‐based systems for collecting intensity data for modern earthquakes provides an opportunity to reconsider not only important individual historical earthquakes but also the overall characterization of intensity distributions for historical events. The focus of this study is a comparison between intensity distributions of historical earthquakes with those from modern earthquakes for which intensities have been determined by the U.S. Geological Survey “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) website (see Data and Resources). As an example of a historical earthquake, I focus initially on the 1843 Marked Tree, Arkansas, event. Its magnitude has been previously estimated as 6.0–6.2. I first reevaluate the macroseismic effects of this earthquake, assigning intensities using a traditional approach, and estimate a preferred magnitude of 5.4. Modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) values for the Marked Tree earthquake are higher, on average, than those from the 2011 >Mw 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake for distances ≤500 km but comparable or lower on average at larger distances, with a smaller overall felt extent. Intensity distributions for other moderate historical earthquakes reveal similar discrepancies; the discrepancy is also even more pronounced using earlier published intensities for the 1843 earthquake. I discuss several hypotheses to explain the discrepancies, including the possibility that intensity values associated with historical earthquakes are commonly inflated due to reporting/sampling biases. A detailed consideration of the DYFI intensity distribution for the Mineral earthquake illustrates how reporting and sampling biases can account for historical earthquake intensity biases as high as two intensity units and for the qualitative difference in intensity distance decays for modern versus historical events. Thus, intensity maps for historical earthquakes tend to imply more widespread damage patterns than are revealed by intensity distributions of modern earthquakes of comparable magnitude. However, intensity accounts of historical earthquakes often include fragmentary accounts suggesting long‐period shaking effects that will likely not be captured fully in historical intensity distributions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2002

Relationship of the 1999 Hector Mine and 1992 Landers fault ruptures to offsets on neogene faults and distribution of late Cenozoic basins in the eastern California shear zone

This report examines the Hector Mine and Landers earthquakes in the broader context of faults and fault-related basins of the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ). We compile new estimates of total strike-slip offset (horizontal separation) at nearly 30 fault sites based on offset magnetic anomaly pairs. We also present a map of the depth to pre-Cenozoic basement rock (thickness of basin-filling late Cenozoic deposits) for the region, based on an inversion of gravity and geologic data. Our estimates of total long-term strike-slip offsets on faults that slipped during the 1999 Hector Mine (3.4 km), and the 1992 Landers earthquakes (3.1 ? to 4.6 km) fall within the 3- to 5-km range of total strike-slip offset proposed for most faults of the western ECSZ. Faults having offsets as great as 20 km are present in the eastern part of the ECSZ. Although the Landers rupture followed sections of a number of faults that had been mapped as independent structures, the similarity in total strike-slip offset associated with these faults is compatible with one of the following hypotheses: (1) the Landers multistrand rupture is a typical event for this linked fault system or (2) this complex rupture path has acted as a coherent entity when viewed over some characteristic multiearthquake cycle. The second hypothesis implies that, for each cycle, slip associated with smaller earthquakes on individual fault segments integrates to a uniform slip over the length of the linked faults. With one exception, the region surrounding the Hector Mine and Landers ruptures is devoid of deep late Cenozoic basins. In particular, no deep basins are found immediately north of the Pinto Mountain fault, a place where a number of kinematic models for development of the ECSZ have predicted basins. In contrast, some basins exist near Barstow and along the eastern part of the ECSZ, where the model of Dokka et al. (1998) predicts basins.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS1998

Faulting apparently related to the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake and possible co-seismic origin of surface cracks in Potrero Canyon, Los Angeles County, California

Apparent southward-dipping, reverse-fault zones are imaged to depths of about 1.5 km beneath Potrero Canyon, Los Angeles County, California. Based on their orientation and projection to the surface, we suggest that the imaged fault zones are extensions of the Oak Ridge fault. Geologic mapping by others and correlations with seismicity studies suggest that the Oak Ridge fault is the causative fault of the 17 January 1994 Northridge earthquake (Northridge fault). Our seismically imaged faults may be among several faults that collectively comprise the Northridge thrust fault system. Unusually strong shaking in Potrero Canyon during the Northridge earthquake may have resulted from focusing of seismic energy or co-seismic movement along existing, related shallow-depth faults. The strong shaking produced ground-surface cracks and sand blows distributed along the length of the canyon. Seismic reflection and refraction images show that shallow-depth faults may underlie some of the observed surface cracks. The relationship between observed surface cracks and imaged faults indicates that some of the surface cracks may have developed from nontectonic alluvial movement, but others may be fault related. Immediately beneath the surface cracks, P-wave velocities are unusually low (<400 m/sec), and there are velocity anomalies consistent with a seismic reflection image of shallow faulting to depths of at least 100 m. On the basis of velocity data, we suggest that unconsolidated soils (<800 m/sec) extend to depths of about 15 to 20 m beneath our datum (<25 m below ground surface). The underlying rocks range in velocity from about 1000 to 5000 m/sec in the upper 100 m. This study illustrates the utility of high-resolution seismic imaging in assessing local and regional seismic hazards.

California↗

USGS2010

The influence of maximum magnitude on seismic-hazard estimates in the Central and Eastern United States

I analyze the sensitivity of seismic-hazard estimates in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) to maximum magnitude (m max ) by exercising the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) probabilistic hazard model with several m max alternatives. Seismicity-based sources control the hazard in most of the CEUS, but data seldom provide an objective basis for estimating m max . The USGS uses preferred m max values of moment magnitude 7.0 and 7.5 for the CEUS craton and extended margin, respectively, derived from data in stable continental regions worldwide. Other approaches, for example analysis of local seismicity or judgment about a source's seismogenic potential, often lead to much smaller m max . Alternative models span the m max ranges from the 1980s Electric Power Research Institute/Seismicity Owners Group (EPRI/SOG) analysis. Results are presented as haz-ard ratios relative to the USGS national seismic hazard maps. One alternative model specifies m max equal to moment magnitude 5.0 and 5.5 for the craton and margin, respectively, similar to EPRI/SOG for some sources. For 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (about 0.0004 annual probability), the strong m max truncation produces hazard ratios equal to 0.35-0.60 for 0.2-sec spectral acceleration, and 0.15-0.35 for 1.0-sec spectral acceleration. Hazard-controlling earthquakes interact with m max in complex ways. There is a relatively weak dependence on probability level: hazardratios increase 0-15% for 0.002 annual exceedance probability and decrease 5-25% for 0.00001 annual exceedance probability. Although differences at some sites are tempered when faults are added, m max clearly accounts for some of the discrepancies that are seen in comparisons between USGS-based and EPRI/SOG-based hazard results.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS1985

A seismic-refraction profile across the San Andreas, Sargent, and Calaveras faults, west-central California

In 1981, the United States Geological Survey recorded a seismic-refraction profile across the southern Santa Cruz Mountains in west-central California to examine the shallow velocity structure of this seismogenic region. This 40-km-long profile, which consisted of three shotpoints, extended northeastward from near Watsonville, California, to Coyote Lake, crossing the San Andreas, Sargent, and Calaveras faults. This entire region is characterized by a highly heterogeneous upper crust. West of Watsonville, 1 km of alluvium with a velocity of 2.12 km/sec overlies a basement with a velocity 5.45 km/sec. The abrupt deepening of basement by 1.5 km just east of Watsonville at a subsurface fault suggests that the Zayante fault to the north and the Vergeles fault to the south are connected. The Tertiary sediment at the San Andreas fault is 2.5 km thick and has a velocity of 3.34 km/sec. The San Andreas fault is not marked by any distinctive seismic velocity features, whereas a 1-km-wide low velocity zone is found at both the Sargent and Calaveras faults. East of the Sargent fault, the basement surface forms a broad anticlinal structure, with velocities ranging from 5.4 to 6.0 km/sec. From the anticlinal crest, basement dips to the east beneath the Santa Clara Valley and reaches a maximum depth of 1 km on the east side; the overlying alluvium has a velocity of 2.7 km/sec. At the crest of the basement anticlinal structure, a vertical low-velocity zone coincident with exposed serpentine provides strong evidence of faulting.

California↗

USGS2026

Detecting earthquakes in noisy real-time GNSS data with deep learning for improved PGD magnitude estimation

To disseminate accurate and useful warnings, earthquake early warning (EEW) systems must quickly determine the size and location of an earthquake to estimate expected shaking. Traditional seismic‐based algorithms tend to underestimate the true magnitudes of large earthquakes, a phenomenon known as magnitude saturation. This limitation motivated the recent inclusion of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) data into the U.S. Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert EEW system with the Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time (GFAST) algorithm because GNSS data do not saturate with large ground motions. However, the noise levels of GNSS data are very high compared with traditional seismic data, which obscures P ‐wave arrivals and can result in less accurate magnitude estimations if displacement amplitudes are low, such as for lower magnitude earthquakes or large source–station distances. In this study, we develop a deep‐learning model that detects earthquakes in GNSS data and use the Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence as a case study to demonstrate how the model could act as a filter to reduce the amount of low‐quality data that enters an algorithm like GFAST. To preserve our limited real earthquake data for model inference, we generated a training dataset composed of >700,000 synthetic displacement waveforms. We combined the synthetic waveforms with real‐time GNSS noise to produce realistically noisy training waveforms and then tested our model on additional synthetic data and performed inference using the real data that were held back. We discuss the performance of our trained model on both the unseen synthetic data and real inference data. Our model can be used to selectively filter only high‐quality data where an earthquake signal is observed for input into an algorithm like GFAST (outperforming a simple signal‐to‐noise ratio–based filter) to reduce the error in GFAST’s real‐time earthquake magnitude estimations.

California↗

USGS2020

Basin amplification effects in the Puget Lowland, Washington from strong motion recordings and 3D simulations

Sedimentary basins in the Puget Sound region, Washington State, increase ground‐motion intensity and duration of shaking during local earthquakes. We analyze Pacific Northwest Seismic Network and U.S. Geological Survey strong‐motion recordings of five local earthquakes ( M 3.9–6.8), including the 2001 Nisqually earthquake, to characterize sedimentary basin effects within the Seattle and Tacoma basins. We observe basin‐edge generated surface waves at sites within the Seattle basin for most ray paths that cross the Seattle fault zone. We also note previously undocumented basin‐edge surface waves in the Tacoma basin during one of the local earthquakes. To place quantitative constraints on basin amplification, we determine amplification factors by computing the spectral ratios of inside‐basin sites to outside‐basin sites at 1, 2, 3, and 5 s periods. Ground shaking is amplified in the Seattle basin for all the earthquakes analyzed and for a subset of events in the Tacoma basin. We find that the largest amplification factors in the Seattle basin are produced by a shallow earthquake located to the southwest of the basin. Our observation suggests that future shallow crustal and megathrust earthquakes rupturing west of the Puget Lowland will produce greater amplification within the Seattle basin than has been seen for intraslab events. We also perform ground‐motion simulations using a finite‐difference method to validate a 3D Cascadia velocity model (CVM) by comparing properties of observed and synthetic waveforms up to a frequency of 1 Hz. Basin‐edge effects are well reproduced in the Seattle basin, but are less well resolved in the Tacoma basin. Continued study of basin effects in the Tacoma basin would improve the CVM.

Washington↗

USGS2014

A method and example of seismically imaging near‐surface fault zones in geologically complex areas using Vp, Vs, and their ratios

The determination of near‐surface (vadose zone and slightly below) fault locations and geometries is important because assessment of ground rupture, strong shaking, geologic slip rates, and rupture histories occurs at shallow depths. However, seismic imaging of fault zones at shallow depths can be difficult due to near‐surface complexities, such as weathering, groundwater saturation, massive (nonlayered) rocks, and vertically layered strata. Combined P ‐ and S ‐wave seismic‐refraction tomography data can overcome many of the near‐surface, fault‐zone seismic‐imaging problems because of differences in the responses of elastic (bulk and shear) moduli of P and S waves to shallow‐depth, fault‐zone properties. We show that high‐resolution refraction tomography images of P ‐ to S ‐wave velocity ratios ( V P / V S ) can reliably identify near‐surface faults. We demonstrate this method using tomography images of the San Andreas fault (SAF) surface‐rupture zone associated with the 18 April 1906 ∼ M 7.9 San Francisco earthquake on the San Francisco peninsula in California. There, the SAF cuts through Franciscan mélange, which consists of an incoherent assemblage of greywacke, chert, greenstone, and serpentinite. A near‐vertical zone (∼75° northeast dip) of high P ‐wave velocities (up to 3000 m/s), low S ‐wave velocities (∼150–600 m/s), high V P / V S ratios (4–8.8), and high Poisson’s ratios (0.44–0.49) characterizes the main surface‐rupture zone to a depth of about 20 m and is consistent with nearby trench observations. We suggest that the combined V P / V S imaging approach can reliably identify most near‐surface fault zones in locations where many other seismic methods cannot be applied.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2000

Accounting for site effects in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of southern California: Overview of the SCEC Phase III Report

This article presents an overview of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Phase-III effort to determine the extent to which probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) can be improved by accounting for site effects. The contributions made in this endeavor are represented in the various articles that compose this special issue of BSSA. Given the somewhat arbitrary nature of the site-effect distinction, it must be carefully defined in any given context. With respect to PSHA, we define the site effect as the response, relative to an attenuation relationship, averaged over all damaging earthquakes in the region. A diligent effort has been made to identify any attributes that predispose a site to greater or lower levels of shaking. The most detailed maps of Quaternary geology are not found to be helpful; either they are overly detailed in terms of distinguishing different amplification factors or present southern California strong-motion observations are inadequate to reveal their superiority. A map based on the average shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m, however, is found to delineate significantly different amplification factors. A correlation of amplification with basin depth is also found to be significant, implying up to a factor of two difference between the shallowest and deepest parts of the Los Angeles basin. In fact, for peak acceleration the basin-depth correction is more influential than the 30-m shear-wave velocity. Questions remain, however, as to whether basin depth is a proxy for some other site attribute. In spite of these significant and important site effects, the standard deviation of an attenuation relationship (the prediction error) is not significantly reduced by making such corrections. That is, given the influence of basin-edge-induced waves, subsurface focusing, and scattering in general, any model that attempts to predict ground motion with only a few parameters will have a substantial intrinsic variability. Our best hope for reducing such uncertainties is via waveform modeling based on first principals of physics. Finally, questions remain with respect to the overall reliability of attenuation relationships at large magnitudes and short distances. Current discrepancies between viable models produce up to a factor of 3 difference among predicted 10% in 50-yr exceedance levels, part of which results from the uncertain influence of sediment nonlinearity.

California↗

USGS2025

Seismic moment and local magnitude scales in Ridgecrest, CA from the SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study

We illustrate the systematic difference between moment magnitude and local magnitude caused by underlying earthquake source physics, using seismic moments submitted to the Statewide California Earthquake Center/United States Geological Survey Community Stress Drop Validation Study 2019 Ridgecrest data set. While the relationship between seismic moment and moment magnitude ( M or M w ) of log 10 ( M 0 ) ~ 1.5* M is uniformly valid for all earthquake sizes by definition (Hanks and Kanamori, 1979), the relationship between local magnitude M L and moment is itself magnitude dependent. For moderate events, ~3< M < ~6, M and M L are coincident; for earthquakes smaller than ~3, M L ~ 1.0 log 10 M 0 (Hanks and Boore, 1984). This is a physical consequence of the corner frequency fc becoming larger than the upper frequency of observation and implies that M L and M differ systematically by a factor of 1.5 for these small events. While this idea is not new, we propose a new, continuous relationship between local magnitude and moment, for magnitudes 2 to 6 which extrapolates to smaller and larger magnitudes, applicable to southern California specific to the Ridgecrest region. We make use of the plethora of seismic moments as submitted by many participants of the Community Stress Drop study, compared to the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) catalog magnitudes. Overall, the seismic moments in the Community Study recover moment magnitude well, so we use our new M L - M 0 to convert M L to M , refining the SCSN operational M Lr scale. This systematic difference of 50% in slope between local and moment magnitude at small magnitudes has implications for spectral stress drop estimates, earthquake ground motion modeling, as well as other magnitude scales and earthquake occurrence statistics.

California↗