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How landscape dynamics link individual- to population-level movement patterns: A multispecies comparison of ungulate relocation data

Aim To demonstrate how the interrelations of individual movements form large-scale population-level movement patterns and how these patterns are associated with the underlying landscape dynamics by comparing ungulate movements across species. Locations Arctic tundra in Alaska and Canada, temperate forests in Massachusetts, Patagonian Steppes in Argentina, Eastern Steppes in Mongolia. Methods We used relocation data from four ungulate species (barren-ground caribou, Mongolian gazelle, guanaco and moose) to examine individual movements and the interrelation of movements among individuals. We applied and developed a suite of spatial metrics that measure variation in movement among individuals as population dispersion, movement coordination and realized mobility. Taken together, these metrics allowed us to quantify and distinguish among different large-scale population-level movement patterns such as migration, range residency and nomadism. We then related the population-level movement patterns to the underlying landscape vegetation dynamics via long-term remote sensing measurements of the temporal variability, spatial variability and unpredictability of vegetation productivity. Results Moose, which remained in sedentary home ranges, and guanacos, which were partially migratory, exhibited relatively short annual movements associated with landscapes having very little broad-scale variability in vegetation. Caribou and gazelle performed extreme long-distance movements that were associated with broad-scale variability in vegetation productivity during the peak of the growing season. Caribou exhibited regular seasonal migration in which individuals were clustered for most of the year and exhibited coordinated movements. In contrast, gazelle were nomadic, as individuals were independently distributed and moved in an uncoordinated manner that relates to the comparatively unpredictable (yet broad-scale) vegetation dynamics of their landscape. Main conclusions We show how broad-scale landscape unpredictability may lead to nomadism, an understudied type of long-distance movement. In contrast to classical migration where landscapes may vary at broad scales but in a predictable manner, long-distance movements of nomadic individuals are uncoordinated and independent from other such individuals. Landscapes with little broad-scale variability in vegetation productivity feature smaller-scale movements and allow for range residency. Nomadism requires distinct integrative conservation strategies that facilitate long-distance movements across the entire landscape and are not limited to certain migration corridors.

Alaska, Massachusetts↗

Multiscale sagebrush rangeland habitat modeling in southwest Wyoming

Sagebrush-steppe ecosystems in North America have experienced dramatic elimination and degradation since European settlement. As a result, sagebrush-steppe dependent species have experienced drastic range contractions and population declines. Coordinated ecosystem-wide research, integrated with monitoring and management activities, would improve the ability to maintain existing sagebrush habitats. However, current data only identify resource availability locally, with rigorous spatial tools and models that accurately model and map sagebrush habitats over large areas still unavailable. Here we report on an effort to produce a rigorous large-area sagebrush-habitat classification and inventory with statistically validated products and estimates of precision in the State of Wyoming. This research employs a combination of significant new tools, including (1) modeling sagebrush rangeland as a series of independent continuous field components that can be combined and customized by any user at multiple spatial scales; (2) collecting ground-measured plot data on 2.4-meter imagery in the same season the satellite imagery is acquired; (3) effective modeling of ground-measured data on 2.4-meter imagery to maximize subsequent extrapolation; (4) acquiring multiple seasons (spring, summer, and fall) of an additional two spatial scales of imagery (30 meter and 56 meter) for optimal large-area modeling; (5) using regression tree classification technology that optimizes data mining of multiple image dates, ratios, and bands with ancillary data to extrapolate ground training data to coarser resolution sensors; and (6) employing rigorous accuracy assessment of model predictions to enable users to understand the inherent uncertainties. First-phase results modeled eight rangeland components (four primary targets and four secondary targets) as continuous field predictions. The primary targets included percent bare ground, percent herbaceousness, percent shrub, and percent litter. The four secondary targets included percent sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), percent big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), percent Wyoming sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata wyomingensis), and sagebrush height (centimeters). Results were validated by an independent accuracy assessment with root mean square error (RMSE) values ranging from 6.38 percent for bare ground to 2.99 percent for sagebrush at the QuickBird scale and RMSE values ranging from 12.07 percent for bare ground to 6.34 percent for sagebrush at the full Landsat scale. Subsequent project phases are now in progress, with plans to deliver products that improve accuracies of existing components, model new components, complete models over larger areas, track changes over time (from 1988 to 2007), and ultimately model wildlife population trends against these changes. We believe these results offer significant improvement in sagebrush rangeland quantification at multiple scales and offer users products that have been rigorously validated.

Wyoming↗

Isolating anthropogenic wetland loss by concurrently tracking inundation and land cover disturbance across the Mid-Atlantic Region, U.S.

Global trends in wetland degradation and loss have created an urgency to monitor wetland extent, as well as track the distribution and causes of wetland loss. Satellite imagery can be used to monitor wetlands over time, but few efforts have attempted to distinguish anthropogenic wetland loss from climate-driven variability in wetland extent. We present an approach to concurrently track land cover disturbance and inundation extent across the Mid-Atlantic region, United States, using the Landsat archive in Google Earth Engine. Disturbance was identified as a change in greenness, using a harmonic linear regression approach, or as a change in growing season brightness. Inundation extent was mapped using a modified version of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWE) algorithm. Annual (2015–2018) disturbance averaged 0.32% (1095 km 2 year -1 ) of the study area per year and was most common in forested areas. While inundation extent showed substantial interannual variability, the co-occurrence of disturbance and declines in inundation extent represented a minority of both change types, totaling 109 km 2 over the four-year period, and 186 km 2 , using the National Wetland Inventory dataset in place of the Landsat-derived inundation extent. When the annual products were evaluated with permitted wetland and stream fill points, 95% of the fill points were detected, with most found by the disturbance product (89%) and fewer found by the inundation decline product (25%). The results suggest that mapping inundation alone is unlikely to be adequate to find and track anthropogenic wetland loss. Alternatively, remotely tracking both disturbance and inundation can potentially focus efforts to protect, manage, and restore wetlands.

Delaware, MarylandPennsylvania, Virginia, West Vir↗

Nutrient, organic carbon, and chloride concentrations and loads in selected Long Island Sound tributaries—Four decades of change following the passage of the Federal Clean Water Act

Trends in long-term water-quality and streamflow data from 14 water-quality monitoring sites in Connecticut were evaluated for water years 1974–2013 and 2001–13, coinciding with implementation of the Clean Water Act of 1972 and the Connecticut Nitrogen Credit Exchange program, as part of an assessment of nutrient and chloride concentrations and loads discharged to Long Island Sound. In this study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, data were evaluated using a recently developed methodology of weighted regressions with time, streamflow, and season. Trends in streamflow were evaluated using a locally weighted scatterplot smoothing method. Annual mean streamflow increased at 12 of the 14 sites averaging 8 percent during the entire study period, primarily in the summer months, and increased by an average of 9 percent in water years 2001–13, primarily during summer and fall months. Downward trends in flow-normalized nutrient concentrations and loads were observed during both periods for most sites for total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total organic carbon. Average flow-normalized loads of total nitrogen decreased by 23.9 percent for the entire period and 10.9 percent for the period of water years 2001‒13. Major factors contributing to decreases in flow-normalized loads and concentrations of these nutrients include improvements in wastewater treatment practices, declining atmospheric wet deposition of nitrogen, and changes in land management and land use. Loads of dissolved silica (DSi; flow-normalized and non-flow-normalized) increased slightly at most stations during the study period and were positively correlated to urbanized land in the basin and negatively correlated to area of open water. Concentrations and loads of chloride increased at 12 of the 14 sites during both periods. Increases likely are the result of an increase in the use of salt for deicing, as well as other factors related to urbanization and population growth, such as increases in wastewater discharge and discharge from septic systems.

Connecticut↗

Parental investment decisions in response to ambient nest-predation risk versus actual predation on the prior nest

Theory predicts that parents should invest less in dependent offspring with lower reproductive value, such as those with a high risk of predation. Moreover, high predation risk can favor reduced parental activity when such activity attracts nest predators. Yet, the ability of parents to assess ambient nest-predation risk and respond adaptively remains unclear, especially where nest-predator assemblages are diverse and potentially difficult to assess. We tested whether variation in parental investment by a multi-brooded songbird (Brewer's Sparrow, Spizella breweri) in an environment (sagebrush steppe) with diverse predators was predicted by ambient nest-predation risk or direct experience with nest predation. Variation among eight sites in ambient nest-predation risk, assayed by daily probabilities of nest predation, was largely uncorrelated across four years. In this system risk may therefore be unpredictable, and aspects of parental investment (clutch size, egg mass, incubation rhythms, nestling-feeding rates) were not related to ambient risk. Moreover, investment at first nests that were successful did not differ from that at nests that were depredated, suggesting parents could not assess and respond to territorylevel nest-predation risk. However, parents whose nests were depredated reduced clutch sizes and activity at nests attempted later in the season by increasing the length of incubation shifts (on-bouts) and recesses (off-bouts) and decreasing trips to feed nestlings. In this unpredictable environment parent birds may therefore lack sufficient cues of ambient risk on which to base their investment decisions and instead rely on direct experience with nest predation to inform at least some of their decisions. ?? 2010 The Cooper Ornithological Society.

Condor↗

Arctic summary report: Outer Continental Shelf and onshore oil and gas activities and impacts in the Arctic : a summmary report, October 1981

Due to the amount of Federal and State oil and gas activity in the Arctic subregion and the need for comprehensive planning, State and local officials requested coverage of all oil and gas activity in the area. The first lease sale of offshore lands in the Beaufort Sea was held by the State of Alaska in 1969. The leasing process for oil and gas exploration on the Beaufort Sea Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) began in April 1976 with the first Federal lease sale in the subregion (Joint Federal/State Beaufort Sea Lease Sale) held in 1979. This sale was held jointly by the Department of the Interior and the State of Alaska because of conflicting jurisdictional claims to certain tracts in the sale area. The jurisdictional dispute will be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court, but a decision is not expected for several years. The joint sale was held on December 11, 1979. However, bids on the Federal tracts were not accepted until July 1980 because of litigation. Of the 117 tracts offered, 86 were leased as a result of the sale. Of these 86 tracts, 24 are federally managed and 62 are State-managed. Two exploration plans have been submitted for the federally managed joint lease sale (Sale BF) area. Both plans call for building a gravel island and exploratory drilling of several tracts, but no drilling permits have yet been filed. Three exploratory wells have been drilled on or into State-managed tracts. These include one well drilled directionally into Tract 75, one into Tract 76, and one well drilled from Challenge Island, a natural barrier island. Additional exploratory wells are planned for the 1981-82 drilling season on State-managed tracts. The next OCS sale in the Beaufort Sea, Lease Sale 71, is proposed for September 1982. The first two sales in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska are being planned for December 1981 and the late spring or early summer of 1982 and will involve a total of 2 million acres (809,200 hectares). In anticipation of future leasing, plans for geophysical surveys in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge are also being formulated. Four State lease sales have been held in the Arctic, in addition to the Joint Federal/State Lease Sale. These onshore sales have resulted in the leasing of lands on which a number of commercial discoveries have been made, including the discovery of the largest hydrocarbon accumulation in North America at Prudhoe Bay. Exploration, development, and production are continuing on these State lands. The State of Alaska has plans for three future lease sales in the Arctic to be held in the spring of 1982 and 1983 and the fall of 1984. Leasing and exploration are also under way on Arctic Slope Regional Corporation lands. Transportation systems in the Arctic have been developed to accommodate production on State lands. Some of the production from OCS tracts, as well as other Arctic lands, may be handled by the existing Trans-Alaska Pipeline System. However, a number of additional transportation strategies are being considered, including the Alaska Natural Gas Transportation System, additional oil pipelines, and tanker transport. The pace of oil and gas production in the Arctic will depend in part on the number and type of transportation modes available. The support bases at Prudhoe Bay are expected to be used to some extent for future activities on the OCS. However, expanded and new facilities will also be required, depending on the location of discoveries on the OCS and on other Arctic lands. The impacts resulting from OCS activities in the Arctic will be particularly important because of their contribution to the regionwide and cumulative impacts arising from Federal onshore, State, and regional corporation oil and gas exploration, development, and production in the Arctic.

Alaska↗

Past and future warming of a deep European lake (Lake Lugano): What are the climatic drivers?

We used four decades (1972–2013) of temperature data from Lake Lugano, Switzerland and Italy, to address the hypotheses that: [i] the lake has been warming; [ii] part of the warming reflects global trends and is independent from climatic oscillations and [iii] the lake will continue to warm until the end of the 21st century. During the time spanned by our data, the surface waters of the lake (0–5 m) warmed at rates of 0.2–0.9 °C per decade, depending on season. The temperature of the deep waters (50-m bottom) displayed a rising trend in a meromictic basin of the lake and a sawtooth pattern in the other basin, which is holomictic. Long-term variation in surfacewater temperature correlated to global warming and multidecadal variation in two climatic oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the East Atlantic Pattern (EA).However, we did not detect an influence of the EA on the lake's temperature (as separate from the effect of global warming). Moreover, the effect of the AMO, estimated to a maximum of +1 °C, was not sufficient to explain the observed temperature increase (+2–3 °C in summer). Based on regional climate projections, we predicted that the lake will continue to warm at least until the end of the 21st century. Our results strongly suggest that the warming of Lake Lugano is tied to globalclimate change. To sustain current ecosystem conditions in Lake Lugano, we suggest that manage- ment plans that curtail eutrophication and (or) mitigation of global warming be pursued.

Lake Lugano↗

Analysis of vegetation recovery surrounding a restored wetland using the normalized difference infrared index (NDII) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)

Watershed restoration efforts seek to rejuvenate vegetation, biological diversity, and land productivity at Cienega San Bernardino, an important wetland in southeastern Arizona and northern Sonora, Mexico. Rock detention and earthen berm structures were built on the Cienega San Bernardino over the course of four decades, beginning in 1984 and continuing to the present. Previous research findings show that restoration supports and even increases vegetation health despite ongoing drought conditions in this arid watershed. However, the extent of restoration impacts is still unknown despite qualitative observations of improvement in surrounding vegetation amount and vigor. We analyzed spatial and temporal trends in vegetation greenness and soil moisture by applying the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference infrared index (NDII) to one dry summer season Landsat path/row from 1984 to 2016. The study area was divided into zones and spectral data for each zone was analyzed and compared with precipitation record using statistical measures including linear regression, Mann– Kendall test, and linear correlation. NDVI and NDII performed differently due to the presence of continued grazing and the effects of grazing on canopy cover; NDVI was better able to track changes in vegetation in areas without grazing while NDII was better at tracking changes in areas with continued grazing. Restoration impacts display higher greenness and vegetation water content levels, greater increases in greenness and water content through time, and a decoupling of vegetation greenness and water content from spring precipitation when compared to control sites in nearby tributary and upland areas. Our results confirm the potential of erosion control structures to affect areas up to 5 km downstream of restoration sites over time and to affect 1 km upstream of the sites.

Cuenca Los Ojos, San Bernardino National Wildlife ↗

Supporting data for hydrologic studies in San Francisco Bay, California: Meteorological measurements at the Port of Redwood City during 1992-1994

Meteorological data were collected during 1992-94 at the Port of Redwood City, California, to support hydrologic studies in southern San Francisco Bay. The meteorological variables that were measured were air temperature, atmospheric pressure, quantum flux (insolation), and four parameters of wind speed and direction: scalar mean horizontal wind speed, (vector) resultant horizontal wind speed, resultant wind direction, and standard deviation of the wind direction. Hourly mean values based on measurements at five-minute intervals were logged at the site, then transferred to a portable computer monthly. Daily mean values were computed for temperature, insolation, pressure, and scalar wind speed. Hourly- mean and daily-mean values are presented in time- series plots and daily variability and seasonal and annual cycles are described. All data are provided in ASCII files on an IBM-formatted disk. Observations of temperature and wind speed at the Port of Redwood City were compared with measurements made at the San Francisco International Airport. Most daily mean values for temperature agreed within one- to two-tenths of a degree Celsius between the two locations. Daily mean wind speeds at the Port of Redwood City were typically half the values at the San Francisco International Airport. During summers, the differences resulted from stronger wind speeds at the San Francisco International Airport occurring over longer periods of each day. A comparison of hourly wind speeds at the Palo Alto Municipal Airport with those at the Port of Redwood City showed that values were similar in magnitude.

California↗

Using microbial source tracking to identify fecal contamination sources in Sag Harbor on Long Island, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey worked in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to assess the potential sources of fecal contamination entering Sag Harbor, an embayment complex on the northern shore of the south fork of Suffolk County, Long Island, New York. Water samples are routinely collected by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation in the harbor and analyzed for fecal coliform bacteria, an indicator of fecal contamination, to determine the need for closure of shellfish beds for harvest and consumption. Fecal coliform and other bacteria are an indicator of the potential presence of pathogenic (disease-causing) bacteria. However, indicator bacteria alone cannot determine the biological or geographical sources of contamination; therefore, microbial source tracking was implemented to determine various biological sources of contamination. In addition, information such as the location, weather and season, and surrounding land use where a sample was collected help determine the geographical source and conveyance of land-based water to the embayment. Analysis revealed that the most substantial source of fecal contamination to Sag Harbor was discharge from sites draining ponds and wetlands, particularly during the summer months. Fecal coliform bacteria at sites where ponds and wetlands drain are increased by stormwater runoff, which is another substantial source of fecal contamination. Human markers were detected in all four samples at the Sag Harbor Sewage Treatment Plant Outfall site but were associated with low fecal coliform concentrations, indicating that the sewage treatment plant is not a likely source of fecal contamination to the embayment. The Ligonee Brook Culvert, Paynes Creek near Marjorie Lane, and Otter Pond Culvert sites were identified as locations that contribute fecal contamination to Sag Harbor. These three locations had high fecal coliform bacteria concentrations in the summer, one of which was positive for canine microbial source tracking markers (Ligonee Brook Culvert), and another positive for waterfowl markers (Paynes Creek near Marjorie Lane). The absence of fecal coliform bacteria and human microbial source tracking markers in groundwater samples indicates that water from septic systems does not influence the harbor; however, elevated fecal coliform bacteria concentrations were not often detected. Further, the sandy sediment alongside Sag Harbor is unlikely to contribute fecal coliform bacteria when resuspended in the water column through tidal shifts or boat activity.

New York↗

Etheostoma brevirostrum (Holiday Darter)

The life history of the Holiday Darter is incompletely known. Only reproductive behavior (Johnston and Shute 1997; Anderson 2009), habitat use, and spawning seasons (Anderson 2009) have been studied. However, based on similarity of life history attributes among snubnose darters (Carney and Burr 1989; Johnston and Haag 1996; Khudamrongsawat et al. 2005), the Holiday darter probably lives 3+ years and matures in the first year. It is likely a benthic omnivore, feeding primarily on chironomid (midge) larvae and other common orders of aquatic insects and occasional microcrustaceans. Spawning occurs from late March to early June, with most activity occurring in April. Based on four females from the Amicalola Creek system, fecundity ranged from 50 to 150 mature eggs, egg sizes ranged from 1.2mm to 1.6mm diameter. The Holiday Darter is an “egg attacher” (sensu Page and Swofford 1984). A spawning female is courted by multiple males, but a dominant (alpha) male aggressively rebuts encroaching males and defends a “roving territory” of the receptive female. The alpha male is the principal spawning partner although satellite males often rush a spawning pair. The receptive female slowly swims along the stream bottom, frequently stopping, apparently to assess substrate attributes, and selects each spawning site where only one or two eggs are spawned. The process is repeated and often covers several meters of stream bottom until the courted female finishes spawning and is abandoned by the alpha male. Water temperatures during spawning in Amicalola Creek and the upper Etowah River ranged 10 to 17° C (Anderson 2009).

Georgia↗

Ecosystem conceptual model- Mercury

Mercury has been identified as an important contaminant in the Delta, based on elevated concentrations of methylmercury (a toxic, organic form that readily bioaccumulates) in fish and wildlife. There are health risks associated with human exposure to methylmercury by consumption of sport fish, particularly top predators such as bass species. Original mercury sources were upstream tributaries where historical mining of mercury in the Coast Ranges and gold in the Sierra Nevada and Klamath-Trinity Mountains caused contamination of water and sediment on a regional scale. Remediation of abandoned mine sites may reduce local sources in these watersheds, but much of the mercury contamination occurs in sediments stored in the riverbeds, floodplains, and the Bay- Delta, where scouring of Gold-Rush-era sediment represents an ongoing source. Conversion of inorganic mercury to toxic methylmercury occurs in anaerobic environments including some wetlands. Wetland restoration managers must be cognizant of potential effects on mercury cycling so that the problem is not exacerbated. Recent research suggests that wettingdrying cycles can contribute to mercury methylation. For example, high marshes (inundated only during the highest tides for several days per month) tend to have higher methylmercury concentrations in water, sediment, and biota compared with low marshes, which do not dry out completely during the tidal cycle. Seasonally inundated flood plains are another environment experiencing wetting and drying where methylmercury concentrations are typically elevated. Stream restoration efforts using gravel injection or other reworking of coarse sediment in most watersheds of the Central Valley involve tailings from historical gold mining that are likely to contain elevated mercury in associated fines. Habitat restoration projects, particularly those involving wetlands, may cause increases in methylmercury exposure in the watershed. This possibility should be evaluated. The DRERIP mercury conceptual model and its four submodels (1. Methylation, 2. Bioaccumulation, 3. Human Health Effects, and 4. Wildlife Heath Effects) can be used to understand the general relationships among drivers and outcomes associated with mercury cycling in the Delta. Several linkages between important drivers and outcomes have been identified as important but highly uncertain (i.e. poorly understood). For example, there may be significant wildlife health effect of mercury on mammals and reptiles in the Delta, but there is currently very little or no information about it. The characteristics of such linkages are important when prioritizing and funding restoration projects and associated monitoring in the Delta and its tributaries.

Report↗

Evaluation of juvenile salmonid behavior near a prototype weir box at Cowlitz Falls Dam, Washington, 2013

Collection of juvenile salmonids at Cowlitz Falls Dam is a critical part of the effort to restore salmon in the upper Cowlitz River because the majority of fish that are not collected at the dam pass downstream and enter a large reservoir where they become landlocked and lost to the anadromous fish population. However, the juvenile fish collection system at Cowlitz Falls Dam has failed to achieve annual collection goals since it first began operating in 1996. Since that time, numerous modifications to the fish collection system have been made and several prototype collection structures have been developed and tested, but these efforts have not substantially increased juvenile fish collection. Studies have shown that juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch), and Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) tend to locate the collection entrances effectively, but many of these fish are not collected and eventually pass the dam through turbines or spillways. Tacoma Power developed a prototype weir box in 2009 to increase capture rates of juvenile salmonids at the collection entrances, and this device proved to be successful at retaining those fish that entered the weir. However, because of safety concerns at the dam, the weir box could not be deployed near a spillway gate where the prototype was tested, so the device was altered and re-deployed at a different location, where it was evaluated during 2013. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted an evaluation using radiotelemetry to monitor fish behavior near the weir box and collection flumes. The evaluation was conducted during April–June 2013. Juvenile steelhead and coho salmon (45 per species) were tagged with a radio transmitter and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag, and released upstream of the dam. All tagged fish moved downstream and entered the forebay of Cowlitz Falls Dam. Median travel times from the release site to the forebay were 0.8 d for steelhead and 1.2 d for coho salmon. Most fish spent several days in the dam forebay; median forebay residence times were 4.4 d for juvenile steelhead and 5.7 d for juvenile coho salmon. A new radio transmitter model was used during the study period. The transmitter had low detection probabilities on underwater antennas located within the collection system, which prevented us from reporting performance metrics (discovery efficiency, entrance efficiency, retention efficiency) that are traditionally used to evaluate fish collection systems. Most tagged steelhead (98 percent) and coho salmon (84 percent) were detected near the weir box or collection flume entrances during the study period; 39 percent of tagged steelhead and 55 percent of tagged coho salmon were detected at both entrances. Sixty-three percent of the tagged steelhead that were detected at both entrances were first detected at the weir box, compared to 52 percent of the coho salmon. Twelve steelhead and 15 coho salmon detected inside the weir box eventually left the device and were collected in collection flumes or passed the dam. Overall, collection rates were relatively high during the study period. Sixty-five percent of the steelhead and 80 percent of the coho salmon were collected during the study, and most of the remaining fish passed the dam and entered the tailrace (24 percent of steelhead; 13 percent of coho salmon). The remaining 11 percent of steelhead and 7 percent of coho salmon did not pass the dam while their transmitters were operating. We were able to confirm collection of tagged fish at the fish facility using three approaches: (1) detection of radio transmitters in study fish; (2) detection of PIT-tags in study fish; (3) observation of study fish by staff at the fish facility. Data from all three methods were used to develop a multistate mark-recapture model that estimated detection probabilities for the various monitoring methods. These estimates then were used to describe the percent of tagged fish that were collected through the weir box and collection flumes. Detection probabilities of PIT-tag antennas in the collection flumes were 0.895 for juvenile steelhead and 0.881 for juvenile coho salmon, although radiotelemetry detection probabilities were 0.654 and 0.646 for the two species, respectively. The multistate model estimates showed that all steelhead and most coho salmon (94.5 percent) that were collected at the dam entered the collection system through the flumes rather than through the weir box. None of the tagged steelhead and only 5.5 percent of the tagged coho salmon were collected through the weir box. These data show that juvenile steelhead and coho salmon collection rates were much higher through the collection flumes than through the weir box. Low detection probabilities of tagged fish in the fish collection system resulted in uncertainty for some aspects of our evaluation. Missing detection records within the collection system for fish that were known to have been collected resulted in four tagged steelhead and seven tagged coho salmon being removed from the dataset, which was used to assess discovery rates of the weir box and collection flumes. However, the multistate model allowed us to provide unbiased estimates of the percentage of tagged fish that were collected through each route, and these data showed that few fish were collected through the weir box. Overall, the fish collection system performed reasonably well in collecting juvenile steelhead and coho salmon during the 2013 collection season. Fish collection efficiency estimates from the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife showed that steelhead collection efficiency was slightly higher than the 10-year average (46 percent compared to 42 percent), whereas coho salmon collection efficiency was more than twice as high as the 10-year average (63 percent compared to 30 percent). However, the performance of the weir box was poor because most fish were collected through the collection flumes.

Washington↗

Trends in Water Quality in the Southeastern United States, 1973-2005

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program, water-quality data for 334 streams in eight States of the Southeastern United States were assessed for trends from 1973 to 2005. Forty-four U.S. Geological Survey sites were examined for trends in pH, specific conductance, and dissolved oxygen, and in concentrations of dissolved solids, suspended sediment, chloride, sodium, sulfate, silica, potassium, dissolved organic carbon, total nitrogen, total ammonia, total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, and total phosphorus. An additional 290 sites from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Storage and Retrieval database were tested for trends in total nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations for the 1975-2004 and 1993-2004 periods. The seasonal Kendall test or Tobit regression was used to detect trends. Concentrations of dissolved constituents have increased in the Southeast during the last 30 years. Specific conductance increased at 62 percent and decreased at 3 percent of the sites, and pH increased at 31 percent and decreased at 11 percent of the sites. Decreasing trends in total nitrogen were detected at 49 percent of the sites, and increasing trends were detected at 10 percent of the sites. Ammonia concentrations decreased at 27 percent of the sites and increased at 6 percent of the sites. Nitrite plus nitrate concentrations increased at 29 percent of the sites and decreased at 10 percent of the sites. These results indicate that the changes in stream nitrogen concentrations generally coincided with improved municipal wastewater-treatment methods. Long-term decreasing trends in total phosphorus were detected at 56 percent of the sites, and increasing trends were detected at 8 percent of the sites. Concentrations of phosphorus have decreased over the last 35 years, which coincided with phosphate-detergent bans and improvements in wastewater treatment that were implemented beginning in 1972. Multiple regression analysis indicated a relation between changes in atmospheric inputs and agricultural practices, and changes in water quality. A long-term water-quality and landscape trends-assessment network for the Southeast is needed to assess changes in water quality over time in response to variations in population, agricultural, wastewater, and landscape variables.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Physical characteristics and fish assemblage composition at site and mesohabitat scales over a range of streamflows in the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico, winter 2011-12, summer 2012

In winter 2011&ndash;12 and summer 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Albuquerque District and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service New Mexico Fish and Wildlife Conservation Office in Albuquerque, New Mexico, evaluated the physical characteristics and fish assemblage composition of available mesohabitats over a range of streamflows at 15 sites on the Middle Rio Grande in New Mexico. The fish assemblage of the Middle Rio Grande includes several minnow species adapted to hydrologically variable but seasonably predictable rivers, including the Hybognathus amarus (Rio Grande silvery minnow), a federally listed endangered species. Gaining a better understanding of habitat usage by the Rio Grande silvery minnow was the impetus for studying physical characteristics and fish assemblages in the Middle Rio Grande during different streamflow conditions. Data were collected at all 15 sites during winter 2011&ndash;12 (moderate streamflow), and a subset was collected at the 13 most downstream sites in summer 2012 (low streamflow). Sites were grouped into four river reaches separated by diversion dams listed in downstream order (names of the diversion dams are followed by short names of the sites nearest each dam in parentheses, listed in downstream order): (1) Cochiti (Pe&ntilde;a Blanca), (2) Angostura (Bernalillo, La Orilla, Barelas, Los Padillas), (3) Isleta (Los Lunas I, Los Lunas II, Abeytas, La Joya, Rio Salado), and (4) San Acacia (Lemitar, Arroyo del Tajo, San Pedro, Bosque del Apache I, and Bosque del Apache II). Stream habitat was mapped in the field by using a geographic information system in conjunction with a Global Positioning System. Fish assemblage composition was determined during both streamflow regimes, and fish were collected by seining in each mesohabitat where physical characteristic data (depth, velocity, dominant substrate type and size, and percent embeddedness) and water-quality properties (temperature, dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, and pH; during summer 2012 only) were measured. Nineteen species of fish were collected among the 15 sites and four reaches over both sampling periods; 10 of these 19 species are introduced. Fish-species richness (total number of fish species collected at each site during each sampling event) among sites that were sampled during both sampling periods ranged from 6 at Rio Salado to 12 at La Orilla. Fish were most abundant at the Lemitar site (1,786 individuals) and least abundant at the San Pedro site (275 individuals). The native Cyprinella lutrensis (red shiner) was the most abundant species collected among all of the sites, accounting for about 42 percent of fish collected. Fish-species richness and catch per unit effort (CPUE) were higher (or equivalent) at all sites during summer 2012 compared to winter 2011&ndash;12. The relations between fish assemblage composition (that is, total abundance, which refers to the number of individuals of each species that were collected) and selected environmental variables (physical characteristic data collected at the mesohabitat scale [depth, velocity, and substrate particle size], and mesohabitat types) were explored by using canonical correspondence analysis. Environmental variables explained 8 percent (p=0.48) of the variability in the Middle Rio Grande fish assemblage during winter 2011&ndash;12, and Rio Grande silvery minnow were weakly associated with sand substrates, relatively moderate velocities (qualitative descriptors are derived from synthetic gradients extracted from CCAs), and relatively shallow depths. Environmental variables explained 14 percent (p < 0.01) of the variability in the Middle Rio Grande fish assemblage during summer 2012, when Rio Grande silvery minnow were associated with run mesohabitats, relatively high velocities, sand substrates, and relatively moderate depths. The mean fish-species richness was greater in summer 2012 than in winter 2011&ndash;12 for each mesohabitat type, and the overall fish-species richness across all mesohabitat types was 0.62 during winter 2011&ndash;12, compared to 1.49 during summer 2012. The highest mean CPUE during winter 2011&ndash;12 was in isolated pools (54.3 fish per 100 square meters [m 2 ]), whereas the lowest was in flats (18.9 fish per 100 m 2 ). Ranges in CPUE were higher in summer 2012 relative to winter 2011&ndash;12 in each mesohabitat type sampled. As in winter 2011&ndash;12, the highest mean CPUE during summer 2012 was in isolated pools (233 fish per 100 m 2 ), whereas the lowest was in flats (29.6 fish per 100 m 2 ). Overall mean CPUE per mesohabitat across all mesohabitat types was 29.1 fish per 100 m 2 during winter 2011&ndash;12 compared to 85.3 fish per 100 m 2 during summer 2012. Four species of minnows (red shiner, Rio Grande silvery minnow, Pimephales promelas [fathead minnow], and Platygobio gracilis [flathead chub]) were selected to compare preferred mesohabitat characteristics because all are small-bodied minnows and because more than 200 individuals of each of these species were collected. Red shiner were collected across the largest range of depths in both winter 2011&ndash;12 (0.02&ndash;4.31 feet [ft]) and summer 2012 (0.05&ndash;3.4 ft), as well as the largest range of velocities (0.0&ndash;4.31 feet per second [ft/s]) during winter 2011&ndash;12 among the four minnow species of interest. Rio Grande silvery minnow occurred in the narrowest range of depths (0.30&ndash;2.1 ft) during summer 2012, as well as the narrowest range of velocities in both winter 2011&ndash;12 (0.0&ndash;3.18 ft/s) and summer 2012 (0.02&ndash;1.51 ft/s). Water-quality properties were only collected during summer 2012, when low-streamflow conditions existed and water-quality properties were thought to be potentially most limiting to aquatic life. Area-weighted mean water temperatures tended to be higher at the sites that were sampled in August 2012 (25.57 degrees Celsius [&deg;C]) compared to June 2012 (24.61 &deg;C). The highest area-weighted mean water temperature at a given site (29.03 &deg;C) was measured at the Lemitar site on August 7, 2012, coincident with the lowest measured discharge (4.13 cubic feet per second [ft 3 /s]). Area-weighted mean dissolved oxygen concentrations tended to be lower in August (7.46 milligrams per liter [mg/L]) compared to June (8.33 mg/L). The highest area-weighted mean dissolved oxygen concentration (9.13 mg/L) was measured at the Lemitar site on August 7, 2012, and the lowest area-weighted mean dissolved oxygen concentration (6.23 mg/L) was measured at the Los Padillas site on August 10, 2012. Area-weighted specific conductance in the sites upstream from La Joya did not exceed 400 microsiemens per centimeter (&mu;S/cm) at 25 &deg;C, whereas the area-weighted mean specific conductance at La Joya (837 &mu;s/cm at 25 &deg;C), Rio Salado (857 &mu;s/cm at 25 &deg;C), and Lemitar (1,300 &mu;s/cm at 25 &deg;C) were all well above the average of the area-weighted means for the 10 remaining sites (433 &mu;s/cm at 25 &deg;C). Lower area-weighted mean pH values were measured at the 3 sites in and near Albuquerque (La Orilla, Barelas, and Los Padillas&mdash;7.98, 8.08, and 7.81, respectively) compared to any of the 10 remaining sites, which had an overall mean pH of 8.44.

New Mexico↗

Application of a hydrometeorological model to the south-central Sierra Nevada of California

A hydrometeorological streamflow-prediction model (HM model) developed for the North Cascades of Washington has been tested in the south-central Sierra Nevada of California. Twenty-four drainages ranging in mean altitude from 770 to 3,160 metres, including several of the major ones such as those of the Kern, Kings, and Merced Rivers, were examined. Eight U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration precipitation stations were evaluated. Of these, three proved to be of significant value for nearly all the drainages used. Results are given for predictions on February 1, March 1, and April 1 of monthly runoff of five major drainages for the April-September season. Also demonstrated is the April 1 prediction of a daily hydrograph for the April-September season for 2 diverse years. The altitude distribution of storage and runoff, both observed and predicted, is determined by using several drainages with different area-altitude profiles. Results of this calculation for two drainages show that, on the average, approximately 50 percent of the April-July runoff originates above 2,800 m. The influence of subsequent precipitation on prediction accuracy is determined by relating prediction error and actual precipitation occurring after the prediction day. Results for three basins show that about 75 percent of the error of a January-September prediction on January 1 is due to precipitation occurring during the prediction season. Comparisons of prediction accuracy are made for five major drainages: the Kern River near Kernville; the Kings River below North Fork, near Trimmer (inflow to Pine Flat Dam); the Kings River at Piedra; the Merced River at Pohono Bridge, near Yosemite; and the Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, near Snelling. The accuracy of the HM model appears to be about 24 percent higher than existing operational methods in predicting the April-July runoff on April 1.

California↗

Disruption of Drift glacier and origin of floods during the 1989-1990 eruptions of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

Melting of snow and glacier ice during the 1989–1990 eruption of Redoubt Volcano caused winter flooding of the Drift River. Drift glacier was beheaded when 113 to 121 × 10 6 m 3 of perennial snow and ice were mechanically entrained in hot-rock avalanches and pyroclastic flows initiated by the four largest eruptions between 14 December 1989 and 14 March 1990. The disruption of Drift glacier was dominated by mechanical disaggregation and entrainment of snow and glacier ice. Hot-rock avalanches, debris flows, and pyroclastic flows incised deep canyons in the glacier ice thereby maintaining a large ice-surface area available for scour by subsequent flows. Downvalley flow rheologies were transformed by the melting of snow and ice entrained along the upper and middle reaches of the glacier and by seasonal snowpack incorporated from the surface of the lower glacier and from the river valley. The seasonal snowpack in the Drift River valley contributed to lahars and floods a cumulative volume equivalent to about 35 × 10 6 m 3 of water, which amounts to nearly 30% of the cumulative flow volume 22 km downstream from the volcano. The absence of high-water marks in depressions and of ice-collapse features in the glacier indicated that no large quantities of meltwater that could potentially generate lahars were stored on or under the glacier; the water that generated the lahars that swept Drift River valley was produced from the proximal, eruption-induced volcaniclastic flows by melting of snow and ice.

Alaska↗

Climate model assessment of changes in winter-spring streamflow timing over North America

Over regions where snow-melt runoff substantially contributes to winter-spring streamflows, warming can accelerate snow melt and reduce dry-season streamflows. However, conclusive detection of changes and attribution to anthropogenic forcing is hindered by brevity of observational records, model uncertainty, and uncertainty concerning internal variability. In this study, a detection/attribution of changes in mid-latitude North American winter-spring streamflow timing is examined using nine global climate models under multiple forcing scenarios. In this study, robustness across models, start/end dates for trends, and assumptions about internal variability is evaluated. Marginal evidence for an emerging detectable anthropogenic influence (according to four or five of nine models) is found in the north-central U.S., where winter-spring streamflows have been coming earlier. Weaker indications of detectable anthropogenic influence (three of nine models) are found in the mountainous western U.S./southwestern Canada and in extreme northeastern U.S./Canadian Maritimes. In the former region, a recent shift toward later streamflows has rendered the full-record trend toward earlier streamflows only marginally significant, with possible implications for previously published climate change detection findings for streamflow timing in this region. In the latter region, no forced model shows as large a shift toward earlier streamflow timing as the detectable observed shift. In other (including warm, snow-free) regions, observed trends are typically not detectable, although in the U.S. central plains we find detectable delays in streamflow, which are inconsistent with forced model experiments.

Journal of Climate↗