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NW CSC annual report fiscal year 2013

The Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC) was established in 2010 as one of eight regional Climate Science Centers created by the Department of the Interior (DOI). The NW CSC encompasses Washing-ton, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana and has overlapping boundaries with three Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs): the Great Northern, the Great Basin, and the North Pacific. With guidance from its Executive Stakeholder Advisory Committee (ESAC), the NW CSC and its partner LCCs are addressing the highest priority regional climate science needs of Northwest natural and cultural resource managers. Climate Science Centers tap into the scientific expertise of both the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and academic institutions. The NW CSC is supported by an academic consortium with the capacity to generate climate science and tools in a coordinated fashion, serving stakeholders across the Northwest region. This consortium is primarily represented by Oregon State University (OSU), the University of Id-ho (UI), and the University of Washington (UW). The academic consortium and USGS provide capabilities in climate science, ecology, impacts and vulnerability assessment, modeling, adaptation planning, and advanced information technology, all necessary to address and respond to climate change in the Northwest. University members also recruit and train graduate students and early-career scientists. This Annual Report summarizes progress for the goals set out in the NW CSC Strategic Plan for 2012-2015 (http://www.doi.gov/csc/northwest/upload/Northwest-CSC-Strategic-Plan.cfm) and the NW CSC Work-plan for Fiscal Year (FY) 2013 (October 1, 2012 through September 30, 2013). The report follows the structure of the Strategic Plan, which describes the five core services (Executive, Science, Data, Communications, and Education and Training) provided by the NW CSC in support of the stated vision: Our Vision: To become nationally recognized as a best-practice model for the provision of climate science and decision support tools to address conservation and management issues in the Pacific Northwest Region.

Report↗

Assessing roadway contributions to stormwater flows, concentrations, and loads with the StreamStats application

The Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) and other state departments of transportation need quantitative information about the percentages of different land cover categories above any given stream crossing in the state to assess and address roadway contributions to water-quality impairments and resulting total maximum daily loads. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with ODOT and the FHWA, added roadway and land cover information to the online StreamStats application to facilitate analysis of stormwater runoff contributions from different land covers. Analysis of 25 delineated basins with drainage areas of about 100 mi2 indicates the diversity of land covers in the Willamette Valley, Oregon. On average, agricultural, developed, and undeveloped land covers comprise 15%, 2.3%, and 82% of these basin areas. On average, these basins contained about 10 mi of state highways and 222 mi of non-state roads. The Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model was used with available water-quality data to simulate long-term yields of total phosphorus from highways, non-highway roadways, and agricultural, developed, and undeveloped areas. These yields were applied to land cover areas obtained from StreamStats for the Willamette River above Wilsonville, Oregon. This analysis indicated that highway yields were larger than yields from other land covers because highway runoff concentrations were higher than other land covers and the highway is fully impervious. However, the total highway area was a fraction of the other land covers. Accordingly, highway runoff mitigation measures can be effective for managing water quality locally, they may have limited effect on achieving basin-wide stormwater reduction goals.

Transportation Research Record↗

Total dissolved gas, barometric pressure, and water temperature data, lower Columbia River, Oregon and Washington, 1996

Increased levels of total dissolved gas pressure can cause gas-bubble trauma in fish downstream from dams on the Columbia River. In cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the U.S. Geological Survey collected data on total dissolved gas pressure, barometric pressure, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen pressure at 11 stations on the lower Columbia River from the John Day forebay (river mile 215.6) to Wauna Mill (river mile 41.9) from March to September 1996. Methods of data collection, review, and processing are described in this report. Summaries of daily minimum, maximum, and mean hourly values are presented for total dissolved gas pressure, barometric pressure, and water temperature. Hourly values for these parameters are presented graphically. Dissolved oxygen data are not presented in this report because the quality-control data show that the data have poor precision and high bias. Suggested changes to monitoring procedures for future studies include (1) improved calibration procedures for total dissolved gas and dissolved oxygen to better define accuracy at elevated levels of supersaturation and (2) equipping dissolved oxygen sensors with stirrers because river velocities at the shoreline monitoring stations probably cannot maintain an adequate flow of water across the membrane surface of the dissolved oxygen sensor.

Oregon, Washington↗

Review of revised Klamath River Total Maximum Daily Load models from Link River Dam to Keno Dam, Oregon

Flow and water-quality models are being used to support the development of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) plans for the Klamath River downstream of Upper Klamath Lake (UKL) in south-central Oregon. For riverine reaches, the RMA-2 and RMA-11 models were used, whereas the CE-QUAL-W2 model was used to simulate pooled reaches. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to review the most upstream of these models, from Link River Dam at the outlet of UKL downstream through the first pooled reach of the Klamath River from Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam. Previous versions of these models were reviewed in 2009 by USGS. Since that time, important revisions were made to correct several problems and address other issues. This review documents an assessment of the revised models, with emphasis on the model revisions and any remaining issues. The primary focus of this review is the 19.7-mile Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam reach of the Klamath River that was simulated with the CE-QUAL-W2 model. Water spends far more time in the Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam reach than in the 1-mile Link River reach that connects UKL to the Klamath River, and most of the critical reactions affecting water quality upstream of Keno Dam occur in that pooled reach. This model review includes assessments of years 2000 and 2002 current conditions scenarios, which were used to calibrate the model, as well as a natural conditions scenario that was used as the reference condition for the TMDL and was based on the 2000 flow conditions. The natural conditions scenario included the removal of Keno Dam, restoration of the Keno reef (a shallow spot that was removed when the dam was built), removal of all point-source inputs, and derivation of upstream boundary water-quality inputs from a previously developed UKL TMDL model. This review examined the details of the models, including model algorithms, parameter values, and boundary conditions; the review did not assess the draft Klamath River TMDL or the TMDL allocations. Attention to the details of a model is one of the best ways to identify potential problems, correct them if possible, and begin to assess the magnitude of potential model errors and uncertainty. Model users need to determine the level of acceptable uncertainty associated with their objectives, identify all sources of potential uncertainty (model uncertainty, data uncertainty, etc.), and assess their approach and results accordingly. In the draft Klamath River TMDL, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality identified the upstream boundary conditions as the largest source of uncertainty for both the current and natural conditions scenarios, not the model algorithms or choice of model parameters. We agree that the upstream boundary conditions are one of the largest, if not the largest, source of model uncertainty; therefore, the derivation of upstream boundary conditions may be more important to the TMDL than some other model-related issues identified in this review. The revised models contain a number of changes, some of which were done to solve small problems and are largely inconsequential to model results, but others of which are important and affect model predictions of instream concentrations. A consistent version of the model is now applied to all scenarios, and an error in the source code was corrected that had inadvertently discarded 20 percent of the incoming solar radiation in the original model. The baseline light-extinction coefficient for water was decreased and set to a consistent and defensible value across all models of reservoir reaches. Inconsistencies among the values of certain parameters in the original models, such as the ammonia nitrification rate and the decomposition rates of organic matter, have been eliminated, although the reasoning behind the final selections was not documented. The dependence of the rate of sediment oxygen demand (SOD) on temperature was modified such that the SOD rate was substantially decreased at temperatures less than 20°C, causing the model to predict higher dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in spring, autumn, and winter. Although that change to the temperature dependence function was done to make the function more similar to the model’s default, this change was not accompanied by any documentation of recalibration or sensitivity exercises. The maximum SOD rate for the 2002 current conditions scenario was decreased from 3.0 grams per square meter per day (g/m 2 /d) in the original model to 2.0 g/m 2 /d in the revised model, a considerable adjustment that appears to have been needed to offset effects of a change to another variable (O2LIM) that would have resulted in a substantial increase in the effective SOD rate for 2002. A 50-percent decrease in the SOD rate over a 2-year period, however, is not likely to be mirrored by field measurements, so this change may be compensating for some process that is not represented correctly in the DO budget for the current conditions scenarios. Several important changes were made to the natural conditions scenario. First, the elevation of the Keno reef was corrected; the elevation specified in the original model was 1 foot too high, which affected the volume of the pooled reach and the travel time through it. The most important changes to this scenario were to the upstream boundary inputs of organic matter and algae, which affect incoming fluxes of nitrogen and phosphorus. Algal biomass inputs were increased by approximately 60 percent during summer because of a change in the way those inputs were derived from results of the UKL TMDL model. Non-algal organic matter inputs were decreased, particularly in summer to correct a problem attributed to double-counting of phosphorus in the original inputs. The distribution of non-algal organic matter was changed from 20 percent dissolved in the original model to 90 percent dissolved in the revised model in response to review comments and published data. The overall sum of algal biomass and non-living organic matter was decreased, which resulted in lower inputs of total phosphorus and nitrogen. Total phosphorus inputs were less than 0.03 mg/L, and although the inputs were derived from selected results of the UKL TMDL model, these concentrations seem too low to be representative of a historically eutrophic system surrounded by extensive wetlands, peat soils, and a groundwater system high in phosphorus. The draft TMDL states that the upstream boundary conditions are the greatest source of uncertainty, greater than any uncertainty associated with the models. Efforts to improve existing models of algal growth and nutrient cycling in UKL, therefore, would provide a substantial benefit to downstream modeling efforts on the Klamath River. Although many improvements were made in revising the Klamath River TMDL models, some issues and uncertainties remain. Several errors in the model source code remain, but do not affect model results for this application as long as certain options and rates are not changed; future users of these models should be aware of these issues. Although the distribution of dissolved and particulate organic matter was modified for the natural conditions scenario, that distribution was not changed for the current conditions scenarios. Recent data on that distribution and the likely rates of organic matter decomposition could be used to improve these models in the future. Nitrate predictions at Keno (Highway 66) still are too high for the current conditions scenarios; future efforts should re-evaluate the model’s denitrification rates and the release rate of ammonia from anoxic sediments. Possibly the most important of the remaining issues are tied to the two-state (healthy/unhealthy) hypothesis for the algae population that was coded into the model. Some of the rates and conversion functions could be refined to make them more acceptable; currently, the published literature does not support the concept of moderately low dissolved-oxygen concentrations as a stressor of algae in the ranges used by the model. More research is needed before these algorithms can be truly tested. The algorithms currently appear to help the model fit the patterns in the available data, and that is useful and perhaps sufficient for some purposes, but those algorithms are not truly predictive or reliable for certain purposes until they can be tested through well-designed experiments and research. In summary, the TMDL models used to simulate Link and Klamath Rivers from Link River Dam to Keno Dam were revised to fix several problems and address various issues. The resulting models are an improvement over those that were reviewed by USGS in 2009, and represent a useful advance in the simulation of a complex system that is difficult to model. However, several issues remain that cause increased uncertainty in the model results. Depending on the objectives of the modeling, now or in the future, these remaining issues could be more or less important. For the Klamath River TMDL, the upstream boundary conditions may be a larger source of uncertainty than the concerns with model algorithms and model parameters identified in this review. Efforts to re-evaluate the available models of algal growth and nutrient cycling in UKL would be highly beneficial to downstream modeling efforts in the Klamath River.

Oregon;California↗

Geologic map of upper Eocene to Holocene volcanic and related rocks in the Cascade Range, Washington

Since 1979 the Geothermal Research Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has carried out a multidisciplinary research effort in the Cascade Range. The goal of this research is to understand the geology, tectonics, and hydrology of the Cascades in order to characterize and quantify geothermal resource potential. A major goal of the program is compilation of a comprehensive geologic map of the entire Cascade Range that incorporates modern field studies and that has a unified and internally consistent explanation. This map is one of a series presently being compiled that shows Cascade Range geology by fitting published and unpublished mapping into a province-wide scheme of lithostratigraphic units; map sheets of the Cascade Range in California and in Oregon complete the series. The complete series forms a guide to exploration and evaluation of the geothermal resources of the Cascade Range and will be useful for studies of volcanic hazards, volcanology, and tectonics. For geothermal reasons, the maps emphasize Quaternary volcanic rocks. Large igneous-related geothermal systems that have high temperatures are associated with Quaternary volcanic fields, and geothermal potential declines rapidly as age increases (Smith and Shaw, 1975). Most high-grade recoverable geothermal energy is likely to be associated with silicic volcanism less than 1 Ma. Lower grade (= lower temperature) geothermal resources may be associated with somewhat older rocks; however, volcanic rocks older than about 2 Ma are unlikely geothermal targets (Smith and Shaw, 1975).

Washington↗

Effects of urbanization on stream ecosystems in the Willamette River basin and surrounding area, Oregon and Washington

This report describes the effects of urbanization on physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of stream ecosystems in 28 watersheds along a gradient of urbanization in the Willamette River basin and surrounding area, Oregon and Washington, from 2003 through 2005. The study that generated the report is one of several urban-effects studies completed nationally by the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Watersheds were selected to minimize natural variability caused by factors such as geology, elevation, and climate, and to maximize coverage of different stages of urban development among watersheds. Because land use or population density alone often are not a complete measure of urbanization, a combination of land use, land cover, infrastructure, and socioeconomic variables were integrated into a multimetric urban intensity index (UII) to represent the degree of urban development in each watershed. Physical characteristics studied include stream hydrology, stream temperature, and habitat; chemical characteristics studied include sulfate, chloride, nutrients, pesticides, dissolved and particulate organic and inorganic carbon, and suspended sediment; and biological characteristics studied include algal, macroinvertebrate, and fish assemblages. Semipermeable membrane devices, passive samplers that concentrate trace levels of hydrophobic organic contaminants such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and polychlorinated biphenyls, also were used. The objectives of the study were to (1) examine physical, chemical, and biological responses along the gradient of urbanization and (2) determine the major physical, chemical, and landscape variables affecting the structure of aquatic communities. Common effects documented in the literature of urbanization on instream physical, chemical, and biological characteristics, such as increased contaminants, increased streamflow flashiness, increased concentrations of chemicals, and changes in aquatic community structure toward a more tolerant community associated with organically enriched conditions, generally were observed in this study. The strongest correlations to the UII and to many of the algal, macroinvertebrate, and fish assemblage metrics and community ordination involved water-chemistry metrics including the total pesticide concentration, toxic equivalents (extract assay from semipermeable membrane devices), and dissolved oxygen. Hydrologic variability metrics, such as flashiness, that normally are considered to be one of the main processes of urban disturbance had a strong association to the algal and fish assemblages in this study; however, the hydrologic variables for macroinvertebrates were secondary to the water-chemistry metrics mentioned above. Generally, the high urban intensity sites had high abundances of eutrophic and lower dissolved oxygen-indicating diatoms, high abundances of noninsects and tolerant insects, and high abundances of nonnative fish species. On the other hand, the low urban intensity sites had higher abundances of pollution sensitive diatoms, larger numbers of the sensitive macroinvertebrate EPT taxa (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera Orders), and fish assemblages with higher abundances of sensitive salmonids. The percent salmonid and macroinvertebrate EPT richness metrics plotted against the UII indicated a possible threshold response at about 25 on the UII, which is equivalent to an impervious surface value of about 5 percent. However, due to the added agricultural land use at sites within the 25 to 60 UII range, this possible threshold probably is not solely due to urbanization, but a combination of urban and agricultural land use. The effects of agricultural and urban land use could not be distinguished from each other, yet combined they provide a good assessment of overall watershed disturbance.

Oregon, Washington↗

Liquefaction evidence for the strength of ground motions resulting from Late Holocene Cascadia subduction earthquakes, with emphasis on the event of 1700 A.D.

During the past decade, paleoseismic studies done by many researchers in the coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest have shown that regional downdropping and subsequent tsunami inundation occurred in response to a major earthquake along the Cascadia subduction zone. This earthquake occurred almost certainly in 1700 A.D., and is believed by many to have been of M 8.5-9 or perhaps larger. In order to characterize the severity of ground motions from this earthquake, we report on a field search and analysis of seismically induced liquefaction features. The search was conducted chiefly along the banks of islands in the lowermost Columbia River of Oregon and Washington and in stream banks along smaller rivers throughout southwestern Washington. To a lesser extent, the investigation included rivers in central Oregon. Numerous small- to moderate-sized liquefaction features from the earthquake of 1700 A.D. were found in some regions, but there was a notable lack of liquefaction features in others. The regional distribution of liquefaction features is evaluated as a function of geologic and geotechnical factors in different field settings near the coast. Our use of widely different field settings, each in which we independently assess the strength of shaking and arrive at the same conclusion, enhances the credibility of our interpretations. Our regional inventory of liquefaction features and preliminary geotechnical analysis of liquefaction potential provide substantial evidence for only moderate levels of ground shaking in coastal Washington and Oregon during the subduction earthquake of 1700 A.D. Additionally, it appears that a similar conclusion can be reached for an earlier subduction earthquake that occurred within the past 1100 years, which also has been characterized by others as being M 8 or greater. On the basis of more limited data for older events collected in our regional study, it appears that seismic shaking has been no stronger throughout Holocene time. Our interpreted levels of shaking are considerably lower than current estimates in the technical literature that use theoretical and statistical models to predict ground motions of subduction earthquakes in the Cascadia region. Because of the influence of estimated ground motions from Cascadia subduction-zone earthquakes on seismic hazard evaluations, more paleoliquefaction and geotechnical field studies are needed to definitively bracket the strength of shaking. With further work, it should be possible to extend the record of seismic shaking through much of Holocene time in large portions of Washington and Oregon.

Oregon, Washington↗

Fossil flora of the John Day basin, Oregon

For a number of years I have been gradually accumulating material for a thorough revision of the Tertiary floras of the Pacific slope. Fossil plants are known to occur at numerous points within this area, and their study and identification has already furnished valuable data bearing on the geological history of the region, and when still further exploited it is confidently expected that they will afford more exact data for the use of geologists. This investigation is progressing satisfactorily, and at no distant day it is hoped to have it in form for final publication. From time to time various members of the United States Geological Survey, as well as others not connected with this organization, have sent in small collections of fossil plants for determination. These have been studied and reported upon as fully as the condition of the problem permitted, so that the determinations could be immediately available to geologists, but with the reservation that none of the questions could be fully settled until all known material had been studied and properly correlated. The rich fossil plant deposits in the John Day Basin, as set forth more fully in the historical account which follows, have been known for a period of nearly fifty years, but their study has been carried on in a more or less desultory manner. There has also been considerable confusion as to the horizons whence these plants came. As various species of plants described originally from the John Day region were detected in various other localities in Oregon, and in surrounding areas, as central Washington, western Idaho, and northern California, it became more than ever apparent that a thorough study of all material obtainable from this type area would be necessary before any definite or satisfactory conclusions could be reached. The immediate incentive for this revision was furnished by the receipt of a considerable collection of plants, made by Dr. John C. Merriam in 1900 while he was in charge of an expedition into this region made under the auspices of the University of California. When these plants were submitted to me for study, it was thought possible to present their description, together with a revision of our knowledge of the previously known forms, within a space sufficiently small to permit the publication of the matter as an appendix to a paper on the general geology of the area, then in preparation by Dr. Merriam. But it soon became apparent that this could not be adequately done within the space available, and a short preliminary report was prepared for and published by Dr. Merriam. The results of a complete restudy of all available fossil plant material from the John Day Basin are now presented. I wish to record my great indebtedness to Dr. Merriam, who not only accompanied me at a considerable personal sacrifice on a trip through the region in 1901, but placed unreservedly at my disposal all material bearing in any way on the problem then in the paleontological museum of the University of California. To Dr. Arthur Hollick I am indebted for the loan of all material from the John Day region belonging to Columbia University, and now deposited in the New York Botanical Garden at Bronx Park. This material, together with the rich collections belonging to the United States National Museum, represents practically all now known to have come from the John Day Basin.

Oregon↗

Upper crustal structure of the Mount Hood, Oregon, region as revealed by time term analysis

Seismic refraction data with a dense areal distribution were collected to study the seismic structure of Mount Hood and the surrounding region. This area is typical of Cascade volcanoes and is geologically quite complex. The prime goals of this project were to search for velocity variations in the upper crustal rocks and to determine if the velocity of these rocks is anisotropic. A new system, including 100 remote recording units, was developed to facilitate the collection of data in this type of survey. The data collected in this study reveal a large variation in velocity and thickness of the uppermost crustal rocks that is probably typical of the High Cascade province. A regional structural pattern surrounding Mount Hood, where there is a marked thinning of low-velocity near-surface rocks, suggests that the present edifice of Mount Hood lies on top of a much larger structure, possibly the roof of a large batholith that was emplaced prior to the eruption of the volcanic rocks that form the modern mountain. A straightforward time term analysis of the data reveals this structure. When the time terms are used to correct the travel time observations for the variation in structure under each station, the remaining set of residuals indicates a variation of travel time with azimuth. While a systematic error in the time term reduction cannot be ruled out, this variation is probably the result of anisotropic velocity structure in the underlying refractor. The alignment of the direction of maximum velocity with the direction of maximum principal stress and the decrease in anisotropy with depth suggest that the anisotropic velocity structure is related to the opening and closing of fractures in the present stress field. The direction of maximum velocity is about N25°W, and the degree of anisotropy appears to vary with depth from about 3% near the surface to zero at depths below 8 km.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

Field measurements of incision rates following bedrock exposure: Implications for process controls on the long profiles of valleys cut by rivers and debris flows

Until recently, published rates of incision of bedrock valleys came from indirect dating of incised surfaces. A small but growing literature based on direct measurement reports short-term bedrock lowering at geologically unsustainable rates. We report observations of bedrock lowering from erosion pins monitored over 1–7 yr in 10 valleys that cut indurated volcanic and sedimentary rocks in Washington, Oregon, California, and Taiwan. Most of these channels have historically been stripped of sediment. Their bedrock is exposed to bed-load abrasion, plucking, and seasonal wetting and drying that comminutes hard, intact rock into plates or equant fragments that are removed by higher flows. Consequent incision rates are proportional to the square of rock tensile strength, in agreement with experimental results of others. Measured rates up to centimeters per year far exceed regional long-term erosion-rate estimates, even for apparently minor sediment-transport rates. Cultural artifacts on adjoining strath terraces in Washington and Taiwan indicate at least several decades of lowering at these extreme rates. Lacking sediment cover, lithologies at these sites lower at rates that far exceed long-term rock-uplift rates. This rate disparity makes it unlikely that the long profiles of these rivers are directly adjusted to either bedrock hardness or rock-uplift rate in the manner predicted by the stream power law, despite the observation that their profiles are well fit by power-law plots of drainage area vs. slope. We hypothesize that the threshold of motion of a thin sediment mantle, rather than bedrock hardness or rock-uplift rate, controls channel slope in weak bedrock lithologies with tensile strengths below ∼3–5 MPa. To illustrate this hypothesis and to provide an alternative interpretation for power-law plots of area vs. slope, we combine Shields' threshold transport concept with measured hydraulic relationships and downstream fining rates. In contrast to fluvial reaches, none of the hundreds of erosion pins we installed in steep valleys recently scoured to bedrock by debris flows indicate any postevent fluvial lowering. These results are consistent with episodic debris flows as the primary agent of bedrock lowering in the steepest parts of the channel network above ∼0.03–0.10 slope.

California, Washington, Oregon↗

Probabilistic regional-scale liquefaction triggering modeling using 3D Gaussian processes

Liquefaction is a major cause of coseismic damages, occurring irregularly over hundreds or thousands of square kilometers in large earthquakes. Large variations in the extent and location of liquefaction have been observed in recent earthquakes, motivating the need for prediction methods that consider the spatial heterogeneity of geologic deposits at a regional scale. Contemporary regional-scale liquefaction hazard analyses are typically performed using only surficial data, which does not address the complicated subsurface mechanics and spatial variability associated with artificial fill and natural soil deposits. In this study, we develop a probabilistic, regional-scale, subsurface model using data from hundreds of borings to better understand subsurface conditions that could influence liquefaction. We then use this subsurface sample database to train Gaussian process models, yielding 3D independent random fields of groundwater depth, soil plasticity, and penetration resistance for each geologic unit. We incorporate the Gaussian process models into probabilistic liquefaction triggering procedures, producing 3D estimates of the probability of liquefaction for an example study area in Portland, Oregon. Near sampling locations, the variance of the Gaussian process models approaches the variance of site-specific liquefaction triggering procedures. Conversely, when no sample data are nearby to condition a Gaussian process, the variance approaches the marginal variance of the entire recorded dataset. Thus, the procedure described in this study unifies probabilistic site-specific and regional-scale liquefaction triggering procedures and provides an important step towards quantitative liquefaction hazard assessments for regionally distributed infrastructures, such as levees, pipelines, roadways, and electrical transmission facilities.

Oregon↗

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Western Region: Coastal and Ocean Science

USGS Western Region Coastal and Ocean Science is interdisciplinary, collaborative, and integrates expertise from all USGS Disciplines, and ten of its major Science Centers, in Alaska, Hawai'i, California, Washington, and Oregon. The scientific talent, laboratories, and research vessels in the Western Region and across the Nation, strategically position the USGS to address broad geographic and oceanographic research topics. USGS information products inform resource managers and policy makers who must balance conservation mandates with increasing demands for resources that sustain the Nation's economy. This fact sheet describes but a few examples of the breadth of USGS science conducted in coastal, nearshore, and ocean environments along our Nation's West Coast and Pacific Islands.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS mineral-resource assessment of Sagebrush Focal Areas in the western United States

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists have completed an assessment of the mineral-resource potential of nearly 10 million acres of Federal and adjacent lands in Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming. The assessment of these lands, identified as Sagebrush Focal Areas, was done at the request of the Bureau of Land Management. The assessment results will be used in the decision-making process that the Department of the Interior is pursuing toward the protection of large areas of contiguous sagebrush habitat for the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in the Western United States. The detailed results of this ambitious study are published in the five volumes of USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2016–5089 and seven accompanying data releases.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Wyoming↗

Revised technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert system—An earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), along with partner organizations, has developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system called ShakeAlert for the highest risk areas of the United States: namely, California, Oregon, and Washington. The purpose of the system is to reduce the impact of earthquakes and save lives and property by providing alerts to institutional users and the public. Using networks of ground-motion sensors and sophisticated computer algorithms, ShakeAlert can detect an earthquake seconds after it begins, calculate its location and magnitude, and estimate the resulting intensity of shaking. Alerts can then be sent to people and systems that may experience damaging shaking, allowing them to take appropriate protective actions. Depending on the user’s distance from the earthquake, alerts may be delivered before, during, or after the arrival of strong shaking. ShakeAlert is built on the foundation of the sensor networks and data processing infrastructure of the USGS-led Advanced National Seismic System. However, these networks were not originally designed for EEW; old equip­ment needs to be updated and new stations must be added to construct EEW-capable networks. The ShakeAlert data-processing infrastructure includes redundant servers that are geographically distributed at monitoring centers in Seattle, Washington, as well as Menlo Park, Berkeley, and Pasadena in California. Three data-processing layers collect raw ground-motion data from field stations (data layer), analyze these data to estimate the area and intensity of the resulting shaking (production layer), and publish alert products as appropriate for end users (alert layer). The alert layer can support thousands of institutional users and alert redistributors, but the USGS does not have the mission, infrastructure, or expertise to perform public notifications and is therefore recruiting technology enablers from the private sector. Additionally, ShakeAlert will coordinate with both public and private partners to accomplish consistent and ongoing public communication, education, and outreach. The estimated cost of completing the ShakeAlert infrastructure and sensor networks is \$39.4 million and has an estimated annual operation and maintenance cost of \$28.6 million per year. Building a highly reliable data telemetry infrastructure would cost another \$20.5 million and operating this telemetry system would add \$49.8 million per year; however, these costs could be reduced if project partners provide bandwidth on existing systems.

Open-File Report↗

Appendix B—investigations of underground‐water problems in California, New Mexico, and Oregon

Investigations by the California Department of Public Works, Division of Water Resources (based on written communication from Harold Conkling, Deputy State Engineer)—the Division of Water Resources, California Department of Public Works, has in the past year conducted investigations of ground‐water problems in the great central valley of the State (California Trough); in the Salinas and Santa Clara Valleys of the central part of the State; also in the South Coastal Basin and in Ventura County, in southern California. In these investigations the Bureau of Agricultural Engineering of the United States Department of Agriculture, the Geological Survey of the United States Department of the Interior, and many local agencies have cooperated. In large part, the activities of the past year are continuations of investigations summarized in an earlier statement (A. M. Piper, Investigations of underground‐water problems in Arizona, California, New Mexico, and Oregon, National Research Council, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 13th annual meeting, 308–309, 1932). Progress in 1932–35 is summarized in the following paragraphs.

California, New Mexico, Oregon↗

Distribution and age of high-grade blueschists, associated eclogites, and amphibolites from Oregon and California

Isolated blocks of high-grade blueschist and amphibolite facies metamorphic rocks occur within the Jurassic and Cretaceous eugeosynclinal deposits of the Coast Ranges of southwestern Oregon and California. The blocks range in size from individual rock masses commonly 5 to 1,000 ft in diameter to a few larger masses as much as 7 mi long and 2 mi wide. The high-grade blocks are predominantly basaltic in composition and include glaucophane schists, eclogites, and gneissic rocks of the amphibolite facies. Field relationships indicate that the blocks are closely associated with serpentine, that high-grade blueschist and amphibolite blocks, lower grade blueschists, volcanic rocks, and cherts occupy disturbed zones that may be related to thrusting, and that there is no exposed in situ provenance for the high-grade blueschists, eclogites, and amphibolites. Potassium-argon mineral ages of white mica and actinolite from the blueschists and of hornblende from the amphibolites indicate that these minerals crystallized approximately 150 m.y. ago, but the ages measured on glaucophane from the blueschist blocks are commonly younger. These data suggest that the high-grade blue-schist and amphibolite blocks represent fragments of a cryptic metamorphic terrane of pre-Tithonian age that have been tectonically mixed with younger rocks of the Franciscan Formation in California and Otter Point Formation in Oregon. The younger ages for glaucophane probably reflect metamorphic episodes in which lower grade in situ blueschist facies mineral assemblages were developed in the blocks after their emplacement within the Franciscan Formation. This pre-Tithonian cryptic metamorphic terrane probably developed as a result of interaction between oceanic and continental plates. The occurrence of tectonic blocks of this terrane within mélange zones in Oregon and California may be related to later plate interaction.

California, Oregon↗

Water-quality modeling of Klamath Straits Drain recirculation, a Klamath River wetland, and 2011 conditions for the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Klamath River, Oregon

The upper Klamath River and adjacent Lost River are interconnected basins in south-central Oregon and northern California. Both basins have impaired water quality with Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) in progress or approved. In cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Watercourse Engineering, Inc., have conducted modeling and research to inform management of these basins for multiple purposes, including agriculture, endangered species protection, wildlife refuges, and adjacent and downstream water users. A water-quality and hydrodynamic model (CE-QUAL-W2) of the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Klamath River for 2006–09 is one of the tools used in this work. The model can simulate stage, flow, water velocity, ice cover, water temperature, specific conductance, suspended sediment, nutrients, organic matter in bed sediment and the water column, three algal groups, three macrophyte groups, dissolved oxygen, and pH. This report documents two model scenarios and a test of the existing model applied to year 2011, which had exceptional water quality. The first scenario examined the water-quality effects of recirculating Klamath Straits Drain flows into the Ady Canal, to conserve water and to decrease flows from the Klamath Straits Drain to the Klamath River. The second scenario explicitly incorporated a 2.73×10 6 m 2 (675 acre) off-channel connected wetland into the CE-QUAL-W2 framework, with the wetland operating from May 1 through October 31. The wetland represented a managed treatment feature to decrease organic matter loads and process nutrients. Finally, the summer of 2011 showed substantially higher dissolved-oxygen concentrations in the Link-Keno reach than in other recent years, so the Link-Keno model (originally developed for 2006–09) was run with 2011 data as a test of model parameters and rates and to develop insights regarding the reasons for the improved water-quality conditions.

Oregon↗

Modeling the Water - Quality Effects of Changes to the Klamath River Upstream of Keno Dam, Oregon

The Link River to Keno Dam (Link-Keno) reach of the Klamath River, Oregon, generally has periods of water-quality impairment during summer, including low dissolved oxygen, elevated concentrations of ammonia and algae, and high pH. Efforts are underway to improve water quality in this reach through a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program and other management and operational actions. To assist in planning, a hydrodynamic and water-quality model was used in this study to provide insight about how various actions could affect water quality in the reach. These model scenarios used a previously developed and calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 model of the Link-Keno reach developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Watercourse Engineering Inc., and the Bureau of Reclamation for calendar years 2006-09 (referred to as the "USGS model" in this report). Another model of the same river reach was previously developed by Tetra Tech, Inc. and the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality for years 2000 and 2002 and was used in the TMDL process; that model is referred to as the "TMDL model" in this report. This report includes scenarios that (1) assess the effect of TMDL allocations on water quality, (2) provide insight on certain aspects of the TMDL model, (3) assess various methods to improve water quality in this reach, and (4) examine possible water-quality effects of a future warmer climate. Results presented in this report for the first 5 scenarios supersede or augment those that were previously published (scenarios 1 and 2 in Sullivan and others [2011], 3 through 5 in Sullivan and others [2012]); those previous results are still valid, but the results for those scenarios in this report are more current.

Oregon↗