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USGS2023

Synergistic soil, land use, and climate influences on wind erosion on the Colorado Plateau: Implications for management

Two decades of drought in the southwestern USA are spurring concerns about increases in wind erosion, dust emissions, and associated impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, human health, and water supply. Different avenues of investigation into primary drivers of wind erosion and dust have yielded mixed results depending on the spatial and temporal sensitivity of the evidence. We monitored passive aeolian sediment traps from 2017 to 2020 across eighty-one sites near Moab UT to understand patterns of sediment flux. At measurement sites we collated climate, soil, topography and vegetation spatial layers to better understand the context of wind erosion and then combine these data with field observations of land use in models to characterize the influence of cattle grazing, oil and gas well pads, and vehicle/heavy equipment disturbance that potentially drive both exposure of bare soil and increases in erodible sediment supply that increase vulnerability to erosion. Disturbed areas with low soil calcium carbonate content yielded high sediment transport in dry years, but notably areas with little disturbance and low bare soil exposure had much less activity. Cattle grazing had the largest land use association with erosional activity with analyses suggesting that both herbivory and trampling from cattle could be drivers. The amount and distribution of bare soil exposure from new sub-annual fractional cover remote sensing products proved very helpful in mapping erosion, and new predictive maps informed by field data are presented to help depict spatial patterns of wind erosion activity. Our results suggest that despite the magnitude of current droughts, minimizing surface disturbance in vulnerable soils can mitigate a large portion of dust emissions. Results can help managers identify eroding areas where disturbance reduction and soil surface protection measures can be prioritized.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2007

Differentiating pedogenesis from diagenesis in early terrestrial paleoweathering surfaces formed on granitic composition parent materials

Unconformable surfaces separating Precambrian crystalline basement and overlying Proterozoic to Cambrian sedimentary rocks provide an exceptional opportunity to examine the role of primitive soil ecosystems in weathering and resultant formation of saprolite (weathered rock retaining rock structure) and regolith (weathered rock without rock structure), but many appear to have been affected by burial diagenesis and hydrothermal fluid flow, leading some researchers to discount their suitability for such studies. We examine one modern weathering profile (Cecil series), four Cambrian paleoweathering profiles from the North American craton (Squaw Creek, Franklin Mountains, Core SQ-8, and Core 4), one Neoproterozoic profile (Sheigra), and one late Paleoproterozoic profile (Baraboo), to test the hypothesis that these paleoweathering profiles do provide evidence of primitive terrestrial weathering despite their diagenetic and hydrothermal overprinting, especially additions of potassium. We employ an integrated approach using (1) detailed thin-section investigations to identify characteristic pedogenic features associated with saprolitization and formation of well-drained regoliths, (2) electron microprobe analysis to identify specific weathered and new mineral phases, and (3) geochemical mass balance techniques to characterize volume changes during weathering and elemental gains and losses of major and minor elements relative to the inferred parent materials. There is strong pedogenic evidence of paleoweathering, such as clay illuviation, sepic-plasmic fabrics, redoximorphic features, and dissolution and alteration of feldspars and mafic minerals to kaolinite, gibbsite, and Fe oxides, as well as geochemical evidence, such as whole-rock losses of Na, Ca, Mg, Si, Sr, Fe, and Mn greater than in modern profiles. Evidence of diagenesis includes net additions of K, Ba, and Rb determined through geochemical mass balance, K-feldspar overgrowths in overlying sandstone sections, and K-feldspars with reaction rims in weathered basement. The sub-Cambrian paleoweathering profiles formed on granite are remarkably similar to modern weathering profiles formed on granite, in spite of overprinting by potassium diagenesis. ?? 2007 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.

Journal of Geology↗

USGS2019

Earlier plant growth helps compensate for reduced carbon fixation after 13 years of warming

1. Drylands play a dominant role in global carbon cycling and are particularly vulnerable to increasing temperatures, but our understanding of how dryland ecosystems will respond to climatic change remains notably poor. Considering that the area of drylands is projected to increase 11–23% by 2100, understanding the impacts of warming on the functions and services furnished by these arid and semiarid ecosystems has numerous implications. 2.In a unique 13‐year ecosystem warming experiment in a southwestern U.S. dryland, we investigated the consequences of rising temperature on Achnatherum hymenoides , a widespread, keystone grass species on the Colorado Plateau. We tracked individual‐ and population‐level responses to identify optimal strategies that may have been masked if considering only one level of plant response. 3.We found several factors combined to affect the timing and magnitude of plant responses during the 13 th year of warming. These included large warming‐induced biomass increases for individual plants, an 8.5‐day advancement in the growing season, and strong reductions in photosynthetic rates and population cover. 4.Importantly, we observed a lack of photosynthetic acclimation and, thus, a warming‐induced down regulation of photosynthetic rates. However, these physiological responses were concurrent with warmed‐plant increases in growing season length and investment in photosynthetic surfaces, demonstrating the species' ability to balance carbon fixation limitations with warming. 5.These results, which bring together ecophysiological, phenological, reproductive, and morphological assessments of plant responses to warming, suggest that the extent of change in A. hymenoides populations will be based upon numerous adaptive responses that vary in their direction and magnitude. Plant population responses to climatic warming remain poorly resolved, particularly for Earth's drylands, and our in situ experiment assessing multiple strategies offers a novel look into a warmer world.

Utah↗

USGS2012

Fluvial transport of mercury, organic carbon, suspended sediment, and selected major ions in contrasting stream basins in South Carolina and New York, October 2004 to September 2009

A spatially extensive assessment of the environmental controls on mercury transport and bioaccumulation in stream ecosystems in New York and South Carolina was conducted as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program and included the determination of fluvial transport of mercury and associated constituents during water years 2005–2009. (A water year extends from October of one calendar year to September of the next calendar year.) In the Coastal Plain region of South Carolina, the study area included the Edisto River and its headwater tributary, McTier Creek. In the Adirondack region of New York, the study area included the upper Hudson River and its headwater tributary, Fishing Brook. Median concentrations of filtered total mercury rangedfrom 1.55 nanograms per liter (ng/L) at the Hudson River site to 2.77 ng/L at the Edisto River site. The Edisto River site had the greatest median filtered methylmercury concentration, at 0.32 ng/L, and the Hudson River site had the least median filtered methylmercury concentration, at 0.07 ng/L.

New York, South Carolina↗

USGS2023

Prediction of the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations at groundwater depths used for drinking-water supply in the Puget Sound basin, Washington, 2004–19

The Puget Sound basin encompasses the 13,700-square-mile area that drains to the Puget Sound and the adjacent marine waters of Washington State. Well more than 4 million people live within the basin, with numbers continuing to increase, who rely on the basin’s natural resources including groundwater. The Puget Sound Partnership was created by a Washington State statute to implement a science-based recovery of the Puget Sound to help address impacts to these resources. As part of the recovery, the partnership developed the Puget Sound Vital Signs as measures of ecosystem health that guide the assessment of progress toward Puget Sound recovery goals. The Puget Sound Partnership Leadership Council adopted a Drinking Water Vital Sign associated with human health and quality of life, recognizing certain indicators as integral to the sustainability of Puget Sound recovery efforts. One such Vital Sign indicator was the vulnerability of groundwater throughout the aquifers of the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations as defined by the probability of exceeding 2 milligrams/liter (mg/L) at a specific location and well depth. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) led the effort to characterize groundwater vulnerability. For this study, groundwater vulnerability refers to a probability with which a contaminant applied at or near the land surface can migrate to the aquifer of interest for a given set of land-use practices. Nitrate concentration data were selected for evaluation because elevated nitrate concentrations are typically caused by anthropogenic activities and have been associated with deleterious impacts on human health. To identify groundwater vulnerability to elevated nitrate concentrations, logistic regression was used to relate anthropogenic (human associated) and natural variables to the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations in untreated groundwater from large public water supply system wells found within the Washington State Department of Health Sentry database. Variables that were analyzed included well depth, soil hydraulic conductivity, precipitation, population density, fertilizer application amounts, and land-use types. Statistically significant models that predicted the probabilities of groundwater nitrate concentrations greater than 2 mg/L based on the predictor variables were created for the time periods 2000–04, 2005–09, 2010–14, and 2015–19. For all time periods, well depth and a measure of the abundance of urban and agricultural land over or near the well consistently helped explain the vulnerability of the well to elevated nitrate concentrations defined as a probability of exceeding 2 mg/L of nitrate. Precipitation and (or) soil hydraulic conductivity were also important predictor variables in the models. The models for each time period were used to create maps of groundwater vulnerability at 150- and 300-foot depths throughout the Puget Sound basin. As expected, the most vulnerable locations were associated with shallower well depths and increased agriculture and urban land cover. Across all four time periods, groundwater vulnerability throughout the Puget Sound was low, with probabilities of exceeding 2 mg/L concentrations of nitrate at depths at 150 and 300 feet typically less than 50 percent. Results also found a slight decrease in probabilities of elevated nitrate concentrations throughout the basin over time. More specifically, additional statistical tests found that groundwater with probabilities of less than about 60 percent declined from 2000 to 2019 and represented more than 75 percent of the modeled Puget Sound basin aquifer. Wells with greater than 60 percent probability increased over the same time period but represented only about 25 percent of the aquifer. The maps and statistical analysis presented in the study provide valuable and informative evaluation of the vulnerability of groundwater in the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations. The probability maps do not represent measured nitrate concentrations in groundwater, but rather they present the probability that nitrate concentrations exceed 2 mg/L. The models and predictions from this study are a viable indicator for the Puget Sound Partnership’s Healthy Human Population—Drinking Water Vital Sign. The logistic regression modeling approach presented here benefits water managers by allowing them to assess temporal trends in a range of probabilities, explore vulnerability changes as new regional land cover and anthropogenic data are generated, and distinguish vulnerabilities at different depths within the aquifer.

Washington↗

USGS2022

Abrupt quaternary ocean-ice events in the Arctic: Evidence from the ostracode rabilimis

The Arctic Ocean has experienced orbital and millennial-scale climate oscillations over the last 500 kilo-annum (ka) involving massive changes in global sea level and components of the Arctic cryosphere, including sea-ice cover, land-based ice sheets and ice shelves. Although these climate events are only partially understood, micropaleontological studies utilizing ostracodes and benthic foraminifera have demonstrated that major changes in faunas have occurred at different timescales that signify ecosystem regime changes linked to sea-ice cover, surface productivity, bottom temperature and other factors. In addition to faunal changes characterizing glacial-interglacial cycles, Arctic sediments contain several unusual faunal events that cannot be explained by orbital-scale sea level and cryospheric changes. One indicator of such events involves the ostracode Rabilimis mirabilis (Brady 1868), a shallow-water species that inhabits continental shelves in the modern Arctic. We conducted studies of the stratigraphic distribution of R. mirabilis in cores from the Northwind, Mendeleev, Lomonosov, and Alpha Ridges; the Siberian and North American (Beaufort Sea) continental margins; and the Lincoln Sea off North Greenland and in the northern Greenland Sherard Osborn Fjord. Evidence from these records suggests that this species occurs as a fossil in deeper water sediment cores on the upper parts of submarine ridges (mainly 700-900 meters water depth, mwd), in significant numbers (from 1%to 50% of total ostracodes) during Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5a (125-109 ka), MIS 4 (71-57 ka), and MIS 3 (57-29 ka). Furthermore, it occurs in cores from various depths on the Siberian margin, the Beaufort and Lincoln Seas during MIS 1 (the Holocene, approx. 11-0 ka). These occurrences involve well-preserved, stratigraphically consistent adult and juvenile populations, which are autochthonous in nature and not caused by downslope transport or ice rafting. Based on their age and associated paleoceanographic conditions in the Arctic, we interpret these R. mirabilis events as signifying basin-ward migration during abrupt changes in growth and decay of massive ice shelves and may be useful as biostratigraphic markers.

Micropaleontology↗

USGS2018

Modeling the distributions of tegu lizards in native and potential invasive ranges

Invasive reptilian predators can have substantial impacts on native species and ecosystems. Tegu lizards are widely distributed in South America east of the Andes, and are popular in the international live animal trade. Two species are established in Florida (U.S.A.) - Salvator merianae (Argentine black and white tegu) and Tupinambis teguixin sensu lato (gold tegu) – and a third has been recorded there— S. rufescens (red tegu). We built species distribution models (SDMs) using 5 approaches (logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy) based on data from the native ranges. We then projected these models to North America to develop hypotheses for potential tegu distributions. Our results suggest that much of the southern United States and northern México probably contains suitable habitat for one or more of these tegu species. Salvator rufescens had higher habitat suitability in semi-arid areas, whereas S. merianae and T. teguixin had higher habitat suitability in more mesic areas. We propose that Florida is not the only state where these taxa could become established, and that early detection and rapid response programs targeting tegu lizards in potentially suitable habitat elsewhere in North America could help prevent establishment and abate negative impacts on native ecosystems.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2010

Ecosystem development in the Girdwood area, south-central Alaska, following late Wisconsin glaciation

Pollen analysis of two cores with discontinuous records from a peat bog near Girdwood, in south-central Alaska, provides the basis for reconstructing the first radiocarbon-dated outline of postglacial history of vegetation in the upper Turnagain Arm area of Cook Inlet. Pollen data from clayey silt underlying peat at one site indicate that the earliest known vegetation in the Girdwood area was shrub–herb tundra. Tundra vegetation developed by ∼13 800 cal years BP, soon after local retreat of glacial ice from the maximum position of the Elmendorf glacial advance (∼15 000 – 11 000 cal years BP). By ∼10 900 cal years BP, the tundra vegetation became shrubbier as Betula nana , Salix , and Ericales increased, and scattered Alnus shrubs began to colonize Turnagain Arm. By ∼9600 cal years BP, Alnus thickets with Polypodiaceae ferns became the dominant vegetation. By ∼6600 cal years BP, birch trees ( Betula neoalaskana , B. kenaica ) from the Anchorage and Kenai lowlands began to spread eastward into eastern Turnagain Arm. Mountain hemlock ( Tsuga mertensiana ) began to colonize the Girdwood area by ∼3400 cal years BP, followed soon after by Sitka spruce ( Picea sitchensis ), both Pacific coastal forest species that spread westward from Prince William Sound after a long migration from southeastern Alaska. For at least the past 2700 cal years, Pacific coastal forest composed mostly of Tsuga mertensiana , Picea sitchensis , and Alnus has been the dominant vegetation of eastern Turnagain Arm.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Widespread use of the nitrification inhibitor nitrapyrin: Assessing benefits and costs to agriculture, ecosystems, and environmental health

Agricultural production and associated applications of nitrogen (N) fertilizers have increased dramatically in the last century, and current projections to 2050 show that demands will continue to increase as the human population grows. Applied in both organic and inorganic fertilizer forms, N is an essential nutrient in crop productivity. Increased fertilizer applications, however, create the potential for more N loss before plant uptake. One strategy for minimizing N loss is the use of enhanced efficiency fertilizers, fortified with a nitrification inhibitor, such as nitrapyrin. In soils and water, nitrapyrin inhibits the activity of ammonia monooxygenase, a microbial enzyme that catalyzes the first step of nitrification from ammonium to nitrite. Potential benefits of using nitrification inhibitors range from reduced nitrate leaching and nitrous oxide emissions to increased crop yield. The extent of these benefits, however, depends on environmental conditions and management practices. Thus, such benefits are not always realized. Additionally, nitrapyrin has been shown to transport off-field, and it is unknown what effects environmental nitrapyrin could have on nontarget organisms and the ecological nitrogen cycle. Here, we review the agronomic and environmental benefits and costs of nitrapyrin use and present a series of research questions and considerations to be addressed with future nitrification inhibitor research.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

USGS2016

Conserving the Greater Sage-grouse: A social-ecological systems case study from the California-Nevada region

The Endangered Species Act (ESA) continues to serve as one of the most powerful and contested federal legislative mandates for conservation. In the midst of heated debates, researchers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners champion the importance of cooperative conservation and social-ecological systems approaches, which forge partnerships at multiple levels and scales to address complex ecosystem challenges. However, few real-world examples exist to demonstrate how multifaceted collaborations among stakeholders who share a common goal of conserving at-risk species may be nested within a systems framework to achieve social and ecological goals. Here, we present a case study of Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) conservation efforts in the “Bi-State” region of California and Nevada, United States. Using key-informant interviews, we explored dimensions and drivers of this landscape-scale conservation effort. Three themes emerged from the interviews, including 1) ESA action was transformed into opportunity for system-wide conservation; 2) a diverse, locally based partnership anchored collaboration and engagement across multiple levels and scales; and 3) best-available science combined with local knowledge led to “certainty of effectiveness and implementation”—the criteria used by the US Fish and Wildlife Service to evaluate conservation efforts when making listing decisions. Ultimately, collaborative conservation through multistakeholder engagement at various levels and scales led to proactive planning and implementation of conservation measures and precluded the need for an ESA listing of the Bi-State population of Greater Sage-grouse. This article presents a potent example of how a systems approach integrating policy, management, and learning can be used to successfully overcome the conflict-laden and “wicked” challenges that surround at-risk species conservation.

California, Nevada↗

USGS1997

The sandflat habitat: Scaling from experiments to conclusions

Ecological systems are characterised by spatial and temporal variations in the density of organisms and resources, and in the intensity of processes which affect them (e.g. Watt, 1947, Dayton, 1971, Addicot et al., 1987, Kolasa and Pickett, 1991 and Giller et al., 1994). This heterogeneity represents both a difficulty for field study design and statistical testing, and a challenge to describe the spatial structuring of populations, communities and ecosystems (Legendre, 1993). Patterns in ecological and environmental variables are fundamental to developing hypotheses and in designing subsequent field studies, because they determine the spatial and temporal scales of study. Spatial and/or temporal patterns also provide useful stepping stones for addressing issues of scale. Patterns apparent at one scale can collapse to noise when viewed from other scales, indicating that patterns, processes and our perceptions vary in a scale-dependent manner. Perhaps the most important but rarely discussed issue is the question of how to scale-up from small-scale surveys and experiments to conclusions relevant at larger spatial and temporal scales.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2023

Ocean current patterns drive the worldwide colonization of eelgrass (Zostera marina)

Currents are unique drivers of oceanic phylogeography and thus determine the distribution of marine coastal species, along with past glaciations and sea-level changes. Here we reconstruct the worldwide colonization history of eelgrass ( Zostera marina L.), the most widely distributed marine flowering plant or seagrass from its origin in the Northwest Pacific, based on nuclear and chloroplast genomes. We identified two divergent Pacific clades with evidence for admixture along the East Pacific coast. Two west-to-east (trans-Pacific) colonization events support the key role of the North Pacific Current. Time-calibrated nuclear and chloroplast phylogenies yielded concordant estimates of the arrival of Z. marina in the Atlantic through the Canadian Arctic, suggesting that eelgrass-based ecosystems, hotspots of biodiversity and carbon sequestration, have only been present there for ~243 ky (thousand years). Mediterranean populations were founded ~44 kya, while extant distributions along western and eastern Atlantic shores were founded at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (~19 kya), with at least one major refuge being the North Carolina region. The recent colonization and five- to sevenfold lower genomic diversity of the Atlantic compared to the Pacific populations raises concern and opportunity about how Atlantic eelgrass might respond to rapidly warming coastal oceans.

Nature Plants↗

USGS2011

Ecological influence and pathways of land use in sagebrush

Land use in sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) landscapes influences all sage-grouse (Centrocer-cus spp.) populations in western North America. Croplands and the network of irrigation canals cover 230,000 km2 and indirectly influence up to 77% of the Sage-Grouse Conservation Area and 73% of sagebrush land cover by subsidizing synanthropic predators on sage-grouse. Urbanization and the demands of human population growth have created an extensive network of con-necting infrastructure that is expanding its influence on sagebrush landscapes. Over 2,500 km 2 are now covered by interstate highways and paved roads; when secondary roads are included, 15% of the Sage-Grouse Conservation Area and 5% of existing sagebrush habitats are 2.5 km from roads. Density of secondary roads often exceeds 5 km/km 2 , resulting in widespread motorized access for recreation, creating extensive travel corridors for management actions and resource development, subsidizing predators adapted to human presence, and facilitating spread of exotic or invasive plants. Sagebrush lands also are being used for their wilderness and recreation values, including off highway vehicle use. Approximately 12,000,000 animal use months (AUM amount of forage to support one livestock unit per month) are permitted for grazing livestock on public lands in the western states. Direct effects of grazing on sage-grouse populations or sagebrush landscapes are not possible to assess from current data. However, management of lands grazed by livestock has influenced sagebrush ecosystems by vegetation treatments to increase forage and reduce sagebrush and other plant species unpalatable to livestock. Fences (2 km/km 2 in some regions), roads, and water developments to manage livestock movements further modify the landscape. Oil and gas development influences 8% of the sagebrush habitats with the highest intensities occurring in the eastern range of sage-grouse; 20% of the sagebrush distribution is indirectly influenced in the Great Plains, Wyoming Basin, and Colorado Plateau SMZs. Energy development physically removes habitat to construct well pads, roads, power lines, and pipelines; indirect effects include habitat fragmentation, soil disturbance, and facilitation of exotic plant and animal spread. More recent development of alternative energy, such as wind and geothermal, creates infrastructure in new regions of the sage-grouse distribution. Land use will continue to be a dominant stressor on sage-brush systems; its individual and cumulative effects will challenge long-term conservation of sage-grouse populations.

Book chapter↗

USGS2017

Water quality and bed sediment quality in the Albemarle Sound, North Carolina, 2012–14

The Albemarle Sound region was selected in 2012 as one of two demonstration sites in the Nation to test and improve the design of the National Water Quality Monitoring Council’s National Monitoring Network (NMN) for U.S. Coastal Waters and Tributaries. The goal of the NMN for U.S. Coastal Waters and Tributaries is to provide information about the health of our oceans, coastal ecosystems, and inland influences on coastal waters for improved resource management. The NMN is an integrated, multidisciplinary, and multi-organizational program using multiple sources of data and information to augment current monitoring programs. This report presents and summarizes selected water-quality and bed sediment-quality data collected as part of the demonstration project conducted in two phases. The first phase was an occurrence and distribution study to assess nutrients, metals, pesticides, cyanotoxins, and phytoplankton communities in the Albemarle Sound during the summer of 2012 at 34 sites in Albemarle Sound, nearby sounds, and various tributaries. The second phase consisted of monthly sampling over a year (March 2013 through February 2014) to assess seasonality in a more limited set of constituents including nutrients, cyanotoxins, and phytoplankton communities at a subset (eight) of the sites sampled in the first phase. During the summer of 2012, few constituent concentrations exceeded published water-quality thresholds; however, elevated levels of chlorophyll a and pH were observed in the northern embayments and in Currituck Sound. Chlorophyll a , and metals (copper, iron, and zinc) were detected above a water-quality threshold. The World Health Organization provisional guideline based on cyanobacterial density for high recreational risk was exceeded in approximately 50 percent of water samples collected during the summer of 2012. Cyanobacteria capable of producing toxins were present, but only low levels of cyanotoxins below human health benchmarks were detected. Finally, 12 metals in surficial bed sediments were detected at levels above a published sediment-quality threshold. These metals included chromium, mercury, copper, lead, arsenic, nickel, and cadmium. Sites with several metal concentrations above the respective thresholds had relatively high concentrations of organic carbon or fine sediment (silt plus clay), or both and were predominantly located in the western and northwestern parts of the Albemarle Sound. Results from the second phase were generally similar to those of the first in that relatively few constituents exceeded a water-quality threshold, both pH and chlorophyll a were detected above the respective water-quality thresholds, and many of these elevated concentrations occurred in the northern embayments and in Currituck Sound. In contrast to the results from phase one, the cyanotoxin, microcystin was detected at more than 10 times the water-quality threshold during a phytoplankton bloom on the Chowan River at Mount Gould, North Carolina in August of 2013. This was the only cyanotoxin concentration measured during the entire study that exceeded a respective water-quality threshold. The information presented in this report can be used to improve understanding of water-quality conditions in the Albemarle Sound, particularly when evaluating causal and response variables that are indicators of eutrophication. In particular, this information can be used by State agencies to help develop water-quality criteria for nutrients, and to understand factors like cyanotoxins that may affect fisheries and recreation in the Albemarle Sound region.

North Carolina, Virginia↗

USGS1997

Imperiled mammalian fauna of aquatic ecosystems in the Southeast: A historical perspective

About 100 species of mammals are endemic to the southeastern United States, an area of diverse habitat types and high biodiversity. Many of these species are either formally considered aquatic or semi-aquatic, or they are otherwise closely associated with aquatic ecosystems. In the southeastern United States, greater than 80 percent of mammalian species are listed in some category of concern throughout all or at least a portion of their ranges (i.e., endangered, threatened, under review for possible listing as endangered or threatened, species of special concern, species deemed in need of management, etc.). Almost all of these species are imperiled because their populations have declined to dangerously low levels due to habitat loss, habitat degradation, or other human-related factors. Most imperiled mammal taxa can be categorized as belonging to one of two general groups: habitat generalists or habitat specialists. Typically, habitat generalists have become imperiled mainly due to human exploitation, while habitat specialists have suffered primarily from habitat loss or habitat degradation. The passage of the U.S. Endangered Species Act of 1973 resulted in an increased need for information concerning distribution and status of all native species. However, relatively little is known concerning the historical distribution and current status of many mammalian taxa, and this is particularly so for small non-game species. In this chapter we provide species accounts of mammals commonly associated with aquatic ecosystems that we consider to be imperiled in the southeastern United States. In these accounts we have included information which we feel is valuable toward best understanding the threats that challenge each considered taxon.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

Consequences of changes in vegetation and snow cover for climate feedbacks in Alaska and northwest Canada

Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C) storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical feedback. We considered four ecoregions, or Landscape Conservations Cooperatives (LCCs; including the Arctic, North Pacific, Western Alaska, and Northwest Boreal). We examined the 90 year period from 2010 to 2099 using one future emission scenario (A1B), under outputs from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM3.1). We found that changes in snow cover duration, including both the timing of snowmelt in the spring and snow return in the fall, provided the dominant positive biogeophysical feedback to climate across all LCCs, and was greater for the ECHAM (+3.1 W m −2 decade −1 regionally) compared to the CCCMA (+1.3 W m −2 decade −1 regionally) scenario due to an increase in loss of snow cover in the ECHAM scenario. The greatest overall negative feedback to climate from changes in vegetation cover was due to fire in spruce forests in the Northwest Boreal LCC and fire in shrub tundra in the Western LCC (−0.2 to −0.3 W m −2 decade −1 ). With the larger positive feedbacks associated with reductions in snow cover compared to the smaller negative feedbacks associated with shifts in vegetation, the feedback to climate warming was positive (total feedback of +2.7 W m −2 decade regionally in the ECHAM scenario compared to +0.76 W m −2 decade regionally in the CCCMA scenario). Overall, increases in C storage in the vegetation and soils across the study region would act as a negative feedback to climate. By exploring these feedbacks to climate, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the global climate system.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2021

Cape Romain partnership for coastal protection

This final report summarizes activities, outcomes, and lessons learned from a 3-year project titled “Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges” with the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and local partners in the surrounding South Carolina Lowcountry. The Lowcountry is classified as the 10-county area encompassing the coastal plain of South Carolina (this report specifically focuses on Berkeley, Charleston, and Georgetown Counties). The goals of this work, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SECASC), were to foster active engagement with stakeholders; to develop a comprehensive definition of adaptation problems faced by agencies, organizations, and individuals near the Cape Romain NWR that accounts for global change, local values, knowledge and perceptions; and to encourage social learning and building of effective networks and trust across South Carolina Lowcountry organizations and individuals. Although project scoping began at the scale of the Atlantic seaboard, by engaging with NWRs from Massachusetts to Florida, participating refuge personnel eventually selected the Cape Romain NWR to serve as a case study for testing our goals. The Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation was established to address global change impacts at a regional level and includes representation from Federal and State resource agencies, local conservation nongovernmental organizations, and organizations representing underserved community interests. Research topics, originating from discussions with Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation members, focused on quantifying key drivers of change including localized sea-level rise (SLR) predictions, estimates of coastal hurricane inundation as amplified by SLR, and urban growth trends and forecasts. These key drivers provided a foundation to engage stakeholders in planning exercises to begin a process of collective understanding and collaborative decision making. The goal of this process was to develop collective strategies of adaptation to enhance community and ecosystem resilience in the South Carolina Lowcountry. South Carolina’s Lowcountry is experiencing rapid environmental and social transformation because of SLR rates approaching twice the global average, chronic tidal flooding and catastrophic storm surges, erosion and loss of habitats that provide essential services to wildlife and humans, and increasing social polarization fueled by aggressive low-density urban growth and other forms of land conversion. To support characterizations of plausible future scenarios, we used available or, in some cases, developed new models to project future conditions of key environmental and social-economic drivers. Because of the imprecision of mean global SLR projections, the SECASC commissioned a climatological study to account for local conditions and multiple representative concentration pathways to project a tailored distribution of future sea levels. These projections were matched to SLR scenarios provided by existing models to anticipate the range of future coastal habitat changes in the South Carolina Lowcountry. SLR scenarios were also incorporated into existing storm-surge models, which do not account for alternate baseline sea levels, to project the local effects of future hurricanes. To evaluate the extent and effects of population growth and urban expansion, we relied on an existing urban-growth model to map the spatial distribution of land-conversion probabilities, the total area of which is predicted to increase twofold to threefold over the next 60 years. In addition to this simplified model, an econometric model is in development to account for nonlinear feedback dynamics in land value, land use, and ecosystem service production. Although not yet completed, the goals of this model are to produce more-detailed projections of growth dynamics and to allow predictions of development patterns resulting from alternate land-use planning policies and incentives. Collaborative planning for an uncertain future requires more than providing decision makers with information on future physical and ecological conditions; developing effective and consensual strategies must also integrate sociological values, multiple cultural perspectives, and an understanding of human behavior. To support broad stakeholder engagement in integrative approaches to adaptation planning, emphasis was placed on the importance of considering differences in how individuals perceive their environment and create meaning. Because cultural frameworks form the basis for perceptions and, ultimately, the behaviors of individuals and institutions, we describe a model of human behavior and how it can be used to understand the effect of cultural complexity and variation in perception on choices, behavioral change, and long-term maintenance of behaviors. We consider a model commonly used in the field of behavioral health that accommodates variation in human perception when describing stages of behavior and the dynamics of behavioral change. Tailoring communication and engagement activities to targeted stakeholders is likely to benefit from increased understanding of behavioral change processes. The complex nature of this problem limited the usefulness of a traditional decision-analytic approach, we explored alternative methods for engagement, collaborative learning and decision making. Recognizing that project partners and Lowcountry stakeholders may be at different stages of preparedness and interest level for modifying behavior as a function of global change, we facilitated a scenario-planning exercise to familiarize partners with this well-established approach for communicating the opportunities and threats arising under alternative, plausible futures. We developed narratives for four alternative South Carolina Lowcountry scenarios to be used in later strategic planning that focus on quantitative trends for three primary drivers with high impact and high uncertainty: manifestations of climate change, social-political shifts at a global level, and forces of local value and power structures. This scenario-planning exercise underscored the complex relation between the temporospatial scale of the production of ecological goods and services and the institutional scale at which they are managed. We then guided the partners through an assessment of the relevant strengths and weaknesses of the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection, using the threats and opportunities characterized by each scenario to understand how the partnership might respond when attempting to meet conservation and societal objectives. The partnership identified key strengths including partnership experience, outreach and technical capacities, a substantial conservation land base, and high social cohesion in the South Carolina Lowcountry. Limited communication expertise, institutional inertia, and insufficient staffing and funding were recognized as important weaknesses across the partnership. By examining and scoring combinations of internal strengths and weaknesses and external threats and opportunities, the partnership developed sets of prioritized strategies to consider in the context of a given scenario. Although we had insufficient time to examine all scenarios in detail, the intent was to identify a portfolio of strategic actions to address threats and opportunities represented in multiple plausible futures. Top-ranking strategies encompassed a range of actions that focused on strengthening the conservation community and communicating the benefits of nature (that is, ecosystem services) to leveraging partnerships to expand land protection. This report also details the methods and preliminary results of several models developed or applied in support of this project. Two parcel-selection algorithms were used to evaluate anticipated habitat changes and patterns of urban growth to guide decisions on optimal conservation reserve design to protect habitat communities. One approach used a widely available planning software (MARXAN) to maximize conservation benefits near the Cape Romain NWR, whereas the other approach was a novel application of economic theory to account for uncertainty in future conditions and for the risks of unanticipated habitat loss. This latter model applies modern portfolio theory to estimate the risk of investing in any portfolio of land parcels (that is, candidate “reserves”) under climate-change uncertainty by quantifying the variation and spatial correlation of conservation benefits derived from each portfolio. We expanded the range of actions beyond simply whether or not to invest in a set of land parcels, an approach commonly used in spatial conservation planning, to also include consideration of divestment from currently protected lands. Such refinements allow for better accounting of system dynamics and can evaluate the benefits of flexible conservation tools such as rolling easements. Model results were conditional on a decision maker’s risk tolerance but highlighted general strategies of land conservation to increase future habitat representation beyond what is expected under the current protected land base. We built models that may help inform coastal planning by estimating salinity dynamics and the performance of oyster reef restoration efforts to predict the combined effects of global change and management of freshwater flows on coastal habitats and the processes that contribute to their resilience. These models can support restoration decisions by evaluating the expected benefits of site locations for shoreline protection and fisheries production. Lastly, we developed a spatially explicit economic model that predicts feedback dynamics among land value, land-use change, and effects on ecosystem service provision to explore zoning policies and incentives on urban growth and ecosystem services. We summarize these efforts with insights and considerations for the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection to continue to engage stakeholders in effective adaptation planning. First, notions of place attachment (referred to as sense of place), and the role of culture in social discourse are increasingly being used to understand the complex interactions between society and the environment and how societies respond and adapt to climate change. Sense of place was a unifying theme whenever the future of the South Carolina Lowcountry was discussed. The contribution of the South Carolina Lowcountry’s environmental wealth, rich cultural heritage, and quality of life to sense of place has important implications for how adaptation planning might best be pursued. More community-based governance of the commons (in other words, natural and cultural resources held in common), in which broad stakeholder participation and power sharing are key elements, is considered important. This devolution of governance is characterized by polycentric institutions and self-organizing social networks that promote a local culture of knowledge sharing, problem solving, and learning. These so-called bridging organizations (or individuals) often provide the leadership necessary to bring together potentially disparate Government agencies and institutions, private organizations, and individuals in a collective process of problem solving. Our observations also suggest that the conservation community in the South Carolina Lowcountry views its activities as integral to the broader governance of social-ecological systems, in which responses to the forces of global change are mediated through culture, economics, and politics. Rather than directly competing with other interests, the South Carolina Lowcountry conservation community seems to embrace an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objective is the quality of human life rather than environmental protection. Fundamental to the types of governance reforms described above is the notion of coproduction, in which experts and users collaborate to develop a shared body of knowledge. In this approach, scientists work with stakeholders to help frame questions, design research, and collect and analyze data. Such sustained collaborations are increasingly believed to be an effective way to produce useable (or actionable) science. The emphasis on social learning, leveraging strong social networks, coordinating and deliberating among diverse stakeholders, and applying principles of adaptive management is an essential contribution to adaptive capacity. The diverse and robust set of scientific approaches, methods to help stakeholders collaborate in effective and goal-driven planning processes, and decision tools resulting from this project hopefully will assist Cape Romain NWR and its partners prepare for climatic, ecological, and social changes over the coming decades.

South Carolina↗

USGS2024

Ecology of Lake Erie - Chemistry, plankton & planktivory: A synthesis

As with other large lake ecosystems worldwide, Lake Erie can be considered a moving target for management, owing to physicochemical and biological changes brought on by anthropogenic change, both planned (e.g. nutrient and fisheries management) and unplanned (e.g. climate change, invasive species, modified land-use activities). These changes have challenged efforts to conserve biodiversity, sustain exploitable resources, and maintain the integrity of services valued by society both within the Lake Erie basin and (Fraker et al., 2022; Fussell et al., 2016; Sinclair et al., 2021; Sinclair et al., 2023) and outside of it (Allan et al., 2013; Jenny et al., 2020; Sterner et al., 2017). Some of these changes and their ramifications for management were documented in the first of four AEHM special issues devoted to the Lake Erie ecosystem (the fourth issue of 2023, volume 26, issue 4; see overview by Ludsin et al., 2023). That special issue focused explicitly on nutrient inputs and availability in Lake Erie and the lower food web, including planktonic and benthic microbial (including cyanobacteria), algal, and invasive dreissenid mussel communities. Similar to the previous Lake Erie special issue, this second one has focused on documenting the state of the lake, providing ecological understanding that could potentially benefit management. While some overlap in topics exists between issues, the studies conducted herein were completely independent of those previous investigations and offer unique insights. Specifically, the contributions to this current issue center on: 1) dynamics of water chemistry in Lake Erie’s central basin (i.e. bottom hypoxia; Ackerman et al., 2024) and western basin (i.e. mercury; Starr et al., 2024); 2) changes in primary producer biomass (Lesht et al., 2024), cyanotoxins (i.e. microcystin; Zastepa et al., 2024), and water quality (e.g. water clarity and dissolved nutrients; Howell et al., 2024); and 3) larval fish foraging (i.e. Lake Whitefish; Coregonus clupeaformis; Amidon et al., 2024) and community structure and phenology (DeBruyne et al., 2024). Below we summarize the major findings of these papers and offer a synthetic perspective on the value of this research for understanding the state of Lake Erie and enhancing management.

Aquatic Ecosystem Health and Management↗