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USGS2017

A fault‐based model for crustal deformation in the western United States based on a combined inversion of GPS and geologic inputs

We develop a crustal deformation model to determine fault‐slip rates for the western United States (WUS) using the Zeng and Shen (2014) method that is based on a combined inversion of Global Positioning System (GPS) velocities and geological slip‐rate constraints. The model consists of six blocks with boundaries aligned along major faults in California and the Cascadia subduction zone, which are represented as buried dislocations in the Earth. Faults distributed within blocks have their geometrical structure and locking depths specified by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) and the 2008 U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Map Project model. Faults slip beneath a predefined locking depth, except for a few segments where shallow creep is allowed. The slip rates are estimated using a least‐squares inversion. The model resolution analysis shows that the resulting model is influenced heavily by geologic input, which fits the UCERF3 geologic bounds on California B faults and ±one‐half of the geologic slip rates for most other WUS faults. The modeled slip rates for the WUS faults are consistent with the observed GPS velocity field. Our fit to these velocities is measured in terms of a normalized chi‐square, which is 6.5. This updated model fits the data better than most other geodetic‐based inversion models. Major discrepancies between well‐resolved GPS inversion rates and geologic‐consensus rates occur along some of the northern California A faults, the Mojave to San Bernardino segments of the San Andreas fault, the western Garlock fault, the southern segment of the Wasatch fault, and other faults. Off‐fault strain‐rate distributions are consistent with regional tectonics, with a total off‐fault moment rate of 7.2 × 10 18 "> 7.2 × 10 18 and 8.5 × 10 18    N · m / year "> 8.5 × 10 18 N ⋅ m / year for California and the WUS outside California, respectively.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2012

Madrean Archipelago Ecoregion: Chapter 28 in Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000

The Madrean Archipelago Ecoregion (Omernik, 1987; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1997), also known as the “Madrean Sky Islands” or “Sky Islands,” covers an area of approximately 40,536 km 2 (15,651 mi 2 ) in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico (fig. 1). The ecoregion is bounded on the west by the Sonoran Basin and Range Ecoregion, on the east by the Chihuahuan Deserts Ecoregion, and on the north by the Arizona/New Mexico Mountains Ecoregion. This area of basin-and-range topography is one of the most biologically diverse in the world (Koprowski, 2005; Skroch, 2008). Although the mountains in the ecoregion bridge the Rocky Mountains to the north and the Sierra Madre Occidental in Mexico to the south (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1997), the lower elevations act as a barrier to species dispersal. Nevertheless, the geographic convergence of these two major continental mountain ranges, as well as of the Chihuahuan Desert to the east and the Sonoran Desert to the west, forms the foundation for ecological interactions found nowhere else on Earth (Skroch, 2008).

Arizona;New Mexico↗

USGS2025

Advancements in satellite observations of inland and coastal waters: Building towards a global validation network

The use of satellite-based remote sensing imagery for water quality monitoring of inland and coastal waters has become widespread over the last few decades, with the expansion of, and investment in, operational Earth-observing missions. Satellite-based sensors are uniquely suited to provide synoptic, system-wide water quality parameter estimates that supplement traditional field-based sampling methods. The remote sensing of water quality parameter estimates is particularly valuable in systems with high temporal and spatial variability, as well as in areas that are difficult to access, or where agencies lack funding for routine monitoring. However, optically complex inland and coastal waters pose additional challenges for developing robust remote sensing retrieval models for optical properties and water quality parameters. One of the biggest challenges is collecting high quality field measurements that are used to calibrate and validate the retrieval algorithms. Here, we present the current status of satellite missions, field methods that include instruments used and commonly measured parameters, and repositories of historical field data that are relevant to inland and coastal water studies. We then present data requirements for model validation and highlight gaps in validation coverage. Finally, we provide suggestions for future field campaigns to improve coordination with remote sensing data collection and to ensure that field data is well suited for use in model or algorithm development.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2010

Method for calculating self-noise spectra and operating ranges for seismographic inertial sensors and recorders

Understanding the performance of sensors and recorders is prerequisite to making appropriate use of them in seismology and earthquake engineering. This paper explores a critical aspect of instrument performance, the “self” noise level of the device and the amplitude range it can usefully record. Self noise limits the smallest signals, while instrument clipping level creates the upper limit (above which it either cannot produce signals or becomes unacceptably nonlinear). Where these levels fall, and the “operating range” between them, determines much of the instrument's viability and the applications for which it is appropriate. The representation of seismic-instrument self-noise levels and their effective operating ranges (cf., dynamic range) for seismological inertial sensors, recorders (data acquisition units, or DAUs), and integrated systems of sensors and recorders (data acquisition systems, or DASs) forces one to address an unnatural comparison between transient finite-bandwidth signals, such as earthquake records, and the instrument's self noise, an effectively stationary signal of infinite duration. In addition to being transient, earthquakes and other records of interest are characterized by a peak amplitude and generally a narrow, peaked spectral shape. Unfortunately, any power spectrum computed for such transient signals is ill defined, since the maximum of that spectrum depends strongly upon signal and record durations. In contrast, the noise floor of an instrument is approximately stationary and properly described by a power spectral density (PSD) or its root (rPSD). Put another way, earthquake records have units of amplitude ( e.g. , m/s 2 ) while PSDs have units of amplitude-squared per hertz ( e.g. , (m/s 2 ) 2 /Hz) and the rPSD has units of amplitude per root of hertz ( e.g. , (m/s 2 )/Hz 1/2 ). Thus, this incompatability is a conflict between earthquake (amplitude) and PSD (spectral density) units that requires one to make various assumptions before they can be compared. For purposes of instrument operational performance, we provide a means of evaluating signal and noise and the range between them in a manner representative of time-domain instrument performance. We call these “operating range diagrams” (ORDs), plots of instrument self noise and clipping level; the “operating range” is the range between these values. For frequency-domain performance we elect to show self noise as an rPSD that may be compared to another instrument's noise or to ambient Earth noise ( e.g. , Peterson 1993); however, to limit the number of arbitrary choices required to merge transient and stationary signals we do not compare the rPSD to transient signals in the frequency domain. Our solution for a time-domain comparison is not new but rather builds upon the consensus of the first and second Guidelines for Seismometer Testing workshops (Hutt et al. 2009) and long established practice in acoustics. We propose this method as a standard for characterizing seismic instruments, and it has been endorsed by the second workshop (Hutt et al. 2009, 2010) and the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Working Group (2008) and recent ANSS procurement specifications.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2005

Blind comparisons of shear-wave velocities at closely-spaced sites in San Jose, California: Proceedings of a Workshop held at the US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, May 3, 2004

Shear-wave velocities within several hundred meters of Earth's surface are important in specifying earthquake ground motions for engineering design. Not only are the shearwave velocities used in classifying sites for use of modern building codes, but they are also used in site-specific studies of particularly significant structures. Many are the methods for estimating sub-surface shear-wave velocities, but few are the blind comparisons of a number of the methods at a single site. The word "blind" is important here and means that the measurements and interpretations are done completely independent of one another. Stephen Hartzell of the USGS office on Golden, Colorado realized that such an experiment would be very useful for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the various methods, and he and Jack Boatwright of the USGS office in Menlo Park, California, in cooperation with Carl Wentworth of the Menlo Park USGS office found a convenient site in the city of San Jose, California. The site had good access and space for conducting experiments, and a borehole drilled to several hundred meters by the Santa Clara Valley Water District was made available for downhole logging. Jack Boatwright asked David Boore to coordinate the experiment. In turn, David Boore persuaded several teams to make measurements, helped with the local logistics, collected the results, and organized and conducted an International Workshop in May, 2004. At this meeting the participants in the experiment gathered in Menlo Park to describe their measurements and interpretations, and to see the results of the comparisons of the various methods for the first time. This Open-File Report describes the results of that workshop. One of the participants, Michael Asten, offered to help the coordinator prepare this report. Because of his lead role in pulling the report together, Dr. Asten is the lead author of the paper to follow and is also the lead Compiler for the Open-File Report. It is important to recognize that most of the participants in the experiments contributed at their own expense. It is gratifying that many people recognized the importance of the experiment and were willing to volunteer their time and resources. We thank them for this effort. This Report is organized in three parts: the first part is a paper summarizing the results of the Workshop, and presenting some conclusions regarding the various methods; the second part is a compilation of those documents describing the experiments that were presented at the meeting (a few of the reports have had minor post-meeting revisions, but with only one exception noted later, none of the models were changed). The final part of this Report is a compilation of the presentations from the meeting -- these are largely in the form of Powerpoint files. No attempt has been made by the compilers to edit the material in parts 2 and 3. It is included here as is for the benefit of the reader.

California↗

USGS2014

Phytoplankton primary production in the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems

Estuaries are biogeochemical hot spots because they receive large inputs of nutrients and organic carbon from land and oceans to support high rates of metabolism and primary production. We synthesize published rates of annual phytoplankton primary production (APPP) in marine ecosystems influenced by connectivity to land – estuaries, bays, lagoons, fjords and inland seas. Review of the scientific literature produced a compilation of 1148 values of APPP derived from monthly incubation assays to measure carbon assimilation or oxygen production. The median value of median APPP measurements in 131 ecosystems is 185 and the mean is 252 g C m −2 yr −1 , but the range is large: from −105 (net pelagic production in the Scheldt Estuary) to 1890 g C m −2 yr −1 (net phytoplankton production in Tamagawa Estuary). APPP varies up to 10-fold within ecosystems and 5-fold from year to year (but we only found eight APPP series longer than a decade so our knowledge of decadal-scale variability is limited). We use studies of individual places to build a conceptual model that integrates the mechanisms generating this large variability: nutrient supply, light limitation by turbidity, grazing by consumers, and physical processes (river inflow, ocean exchange, and inputs of heat, light and wind energy). We consider method as another source of variability because the compilation includes values derived from widely differing protocols. A simulation model shows that different methods reported in the literature can yield up to 3-fold variability depending on incubation protocols and methods for integrating measured rates over time and depth. Although attempts have been made to upscale measures of estuarine-coastal APPP, the empirical record is inadequate for yielding reliable global estimates. The record is deficient in three ways. First, it is highly biased by the large number of measurements made in northern Europe (particularly the Baltic region) and North America. Of the 1148 reported values of APPP, 958 come from sites between 30 and 60° N; we found only 36 for sites south of 20° N. Second, of the 131 ecosystems where APPP has been reported, 37% are based on measurements at only one location during 1 year. The accuracy of these values is unknown but probably low, given the large interannual and spatial variability within ecosystems. Finally, global assessments are confounded by measurements that are not intercomparable because they were made with different methods. Phytoplankton primary production along the continental margins is tightly linked to variability of water quality, biogeochemical processes including ocean–atmosphere CO 2 exchange, and production at higher trophic levels including species we harvest as food. The empirical record has deficiencies that preclude reliable global assessment of this key Earth system process. We face two grand challenges to resolve these deficiencies: (1) organize and fund an international effort to use a common method and measure APPP regularly across a network of coastal sites that are globally representative and sustained over time, and (2) integrate data into a unifying model to explain the wide range of variability across ecosystems and to project responses of APPP to regional manifestations of global change as it continues to unfold.

Biogeosciences↗

USGS2009

Earth science: lasting earthquake legacy

Earthquakes occur within continental tectonic plates as well as at plate boundaries. Do clusters of such mid-plate events constitute zones of continuing hazard, or are they aftershocks of long-past earthquakes? Early on the morning of 16 December 1811, an earthquake of about magnitude 7 shook the centre of the United States around a small town on the Mississippi called New Madrid. By 7 February 1812, it had triggered three more shocks of similar magnitude. The earthquakes broke a set of faults along the Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee state boundaries, apparently reactivating an ancient rift in the interior of a continental tectonic plate. On 31 August 1886, a magnitude-7 shock struck Charleston, South Carolina; low-level activity continues there today. One view of seismic hazard is that large earthquakes will return to New Madrid and Charleston at intervals of about 500 years. With expected ground motions that would be stronger than average, that prospect produces estimates of earthquake hazard that rival those at the plate boundaries marked by the San Andreas fault and Cascadia subduction zone. The result is two large 'bull's-eyes' on the US National Seismic Hazard Maps — which, for example, influence regional building codes and perceptions of public safety.

Nature↗

USGS2018

The influence of sea level rise on the regional interdependence of coastal infrastructure

Sea level rise (SLR) is placing both immediate and long‐term pressures on coastal communities to take protective actions. Projects in the United States, and in many locations throughout the world, generally involve local jurisdictions raising the elevation of shoreline protection elements, with limited or no analysis of the feedback between shoreline management decisions and the impacts to water levels regionally. Our study examines the impact of local shoreline development on regional flood risk and considers SLR scenarios up to 1.5 m using a large‐scale numerical model, as an example, for San Francisco Bay. Here we show that measures to prevent flooding along an embayment shoreline in one location or subregion may increase inundation elsewhere in the system. The network of interactions occurs not only within subbasins of the Bay but also across the greater geographic extent from one end of the Bay to the other, and local jurisdiction may have either reciprocal relationships with or asymmetric impacts on one other. Importantly, the nature of the interaction network is seen to evolve with SLR: interactions are purely subregional at current sea level but with higher sea level (e.g., 1 m of SLR), not only do the subregional interdependencies strengthen but also regional interdependences emerge.

California↗

USGS2012

Changes to dryland rainfall result in rapid moss mortality and altered soil fertility

Arid and semi-arid ecosystems cover ~40% of Earth’s terrestrial surface, but we know little about how climate change will affect these widespread landscapes. Like many drylands, the Colorado Plateau in southwestern United States is predicted to experience elevated temperatures and alterations to the timing and amount of annual precipitation. We used a factorial warming and supplemental rainfall experiment on the Colorado Plateau to show that altered precipitation resulted in pronounced mortality of the widespread moss Syntrichia caninervis. Increased frequency of 1.2 mm summer rainfall events reduced moss cover from ~25% of total surface cover to <2% after only one growing season, whereas increased temperature had no effect. Laboratory measurements identified a physiological mechanism behind the mortality: small precipitation events caused a negative moss carbon balance, whereas larger events maintained net carbon uptake. Multiple metrics of nitrogen cycling were notably different with moss mortality and had significant implications for soil fertility. Mosses are important members in many dryland ecosystems and the community changes observed here reveal how subtle modifications to climate can affect ecosystem structure and function on unexpectedly short timescales. Moreover, mortality resulted from increased precipitation through smaller, more frequent events, underscoring the importance of precipitation event size and timing, and highlighting our inadequate understanding of relationships between climate and ecosystem function in drylands.

Colorado Plateau↗

USGS2011

Microbial sulfate reduction and the sulfur budget for a complete section of altered oceanic basalts, IODP Hole 1256D (eastern Pacific)

Sulfide mineralogy and the contents and isotope compositions of sulfur were analyzed in a complete oceanic volcanic section from IODP Hole 1256D in the eastern Pacific, in order to investigate the role of microbes and their effect on the sulfur budget in altered upper oceanic crust. Basalts in the 800m thick volcanic section are affected by a pervasive low-temperature background alteration and have mean sulfur contents of 530ppm, reflecting loss of sulfur relative to fresh glass through degassing during eruption and alteration by seawater. Alteration halos along fractures average 155ppm sulfur and are more oxidized, have high SO 4 /ΣS ratios (0.43), and lost sulfur through oxidation by seawater compared to host rocks. Although sulfur was lost locally, sulfur was subsequently gained through fixation of seawater-derived sulfur in secondary pyrite and marcasite in veins and in concentrations at the boundary between alteration halos and host rocks. Negative δ34S sulfide-S values (down to -30 °) and low temperatures of alteration (down to ~40 °C) point to microbial reduction of seawater sulfate as the process resulting in local additions of sulfide-S. Mass balance calculations indicate that 15-20% of the sulfur in the volcanic section is microbially derived, with the bulk altered volcanic section containing 940ppm S, and with δ34S shifted to -6.0&permil;) from the mantle value (0 &permil;). The bulk volcanic section may have gained or lost sulfur overall. The annual flux of microbial sulfur into oceanic basement based on Hole 1256D is 3-4 X10 10 molSyr-1, within an order of magnitude of the riverine sulfate source and the sedimentary pyrite sink. Results indicate a flux of bacterially derived sulfur that is fixed in upper ocean basement of 7-8 X 10 -8 molcm -2 yr -1 over 15m.y. This is comparable to that in open ocean sediment sites, but is one to two orders of magnitude less than for ocean margin sediments. The global annual subduction of sulfur in altered oceanic basalt lavas based on Hole 1256D is 1.5-2.0 X 10 11 moly -1 , comparable to the subduction of sulfide in sediments, and could contribute to sediment-like sulfur isotope heterogeneities in the mantle.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS1996

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Investigation of rupture velocity, risetime, and high-frequency radiation

A hybrid global search algorithm is used to solve the nonlinear problem of calculating slip amplitude, rake, risetime, and rupture time on a finite fault. Thirty-five strong motion velocity records are inverted by this method over the frequency band from 0.1 to 1.0 Hz for the Northridge earthquake. Four regions of larger-amplitude slip are identified: one near the hypocenter at a depth of 17 km, a second west of the hypocenter at about the same depth, a third updip from the hypocenter at a depth of 10 km, and a fourth updip from the hypocenter and to the northwest. The results further show an initial fast rupture with a velocity of 2.8 to 3.0 km/s followed by a slow termination of the rupture with velocities of 2.0 to 2.5 km/s. The initial energetic rupture phase lasts for 3 s, extending out 10 km from the hypocenter. Slip near the hypocenter has a short risetime of 0.5 s, which increases to 1.5 s for the major slip areas removed from the hypocentral region. The energetic rupture phase is also shown to be the primary source of high-frequency radiation (1–15 Hz) by an inversion of acceleration envelopes. The same global search algorithm is used in the envelope inversion to calculate high-frequency radiation intensity on the fault and rupture time. The rupture timing from the low- and high-frequency inversions is similar, indicating that the high frequencies are produced primarily at the mainshock rupture front. Two major sources of high-frequency radiation are identified within the energetic rupture phase, one at the hypocenter and another deep source to the west of the hypocenter. The source at the hypocenter is associated with the initiation of rupture and the breaking of a high-stress-drop asperity and the second is associated with stopping of the rupture in a westerly direction.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2007

A project for monitoring trends in burn severity

Jeff Eidenshink, Brian Schwind, Ken Brewer, Zhi-Liang Zhu, Brad Quayle, and Elected officials and leaders of environmental agencies need information about the effects of large wildfires in order to set policy and make management decisions. Recently, the Wildland Fire Leadership Council (WFLC), which implements and coordinates the National Fire Plan (NFP) and Federal Wildland Fire Management Policies (National Fire Plan 2004), adopted a strategy to monitor the effectiveness of the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA). One component of this strategy is to assess the environmental impacts of large wildland fires and identify the trends of burn severity on all lands across the United States. To that end, WFLC has sponsored a six-year project, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS), which requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USDA-FS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to map and assess the burn severity for all large current and historical fires. Using Landsat data and the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) algorithm, the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) and USDA-FS Remote Sensing Applications Center will map burn severity of all fires since 1984 greater than 202 ha (500ac) in the east, and 404 ha (1,000 ac) in the west. The number of historical fires from this period combined with current fires occurring during the course of the project will exceed 9,000. The MTBS project will generate burn severity data, maps, and reports, which will be available for use at local, state, and national levels to evaluate trends in burn severity and help develop and assess the effectiveness of land management decisions. Additionally, the information developed will provide a baseline from which to monitor the recovery and health of fire-affected landscapes over time. Spatial and tabular data quantifying burn severity will augment existing information used to estimate risk associated with a range of current and future resource threats. The annual report of 2004 fires has been completed. All data and results will be distributed to the public on a Web site. A Project for Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity

Fire Ecology↗

USGS1993

Raster profile development for the spatial data transfer standard

The Spatial Data Transfer Standard (SDTS), recently approved as Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) Publication 173, is designed to transfer various types of spatial data. Implementing all of the standard's options at one time is impractical. Profiles, or limited subsets of the SDTS, are the mechanisms by which the standards will be implemented. The development of a raster profile is being coordinated by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) SDTS Task Force. This raster profile is intended to accommodate digital georeferenced image data and regularly spaces, georeferenced gridded data. The USGS's digital elevation models (DEMs) and digital orthophoto quadrangles (DOQs), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) advanced very huh resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and Landsat data, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth observing system (EOS) data are among the candidate data sets for this profile. Other raster profiles, designed to support nongeoreferenced and other types of "raw" sensor data will be consider in the future. As with the Topological Vector Profile (TVP) for the SDTS, development of the raster profile includes designing a prototype profile, testing the prototype profile using sample data sets, and finally, requesting and receiving FIPS approval.

Pecora 12 Symposium↗

USGS1979

A “natural and legitimate ambition . . . .”

Grove Karl Gilbert (1843-1918) was Chief Geologist for the U.S Geological Survey from 1889 to 1892. Still working for the Survey, he was in Berkeley when the 1906 earthquake struck San Francisco. Immediately on waking, he began to study the motion of the light fixture hanging from the ceiling, trying to decipher the direction of Earth waves and to time the intervals between tremors and hoping to gain some insight into the quake's magnitude. What Gilbert called a "tumult of motions and noises" brought him "unalloyed pleasure." He later announced that it was the "natural and legitimate ambition of properly constituted geologist to see a glacier, witness an eruption and feel an earthquake..." Having narrowly missed the 1872 Inyo earthquake (while with the Wheeler Survey) and the 1899 Alaska earthquake (while with the Harriman Expedition), the 63-year-old Gilbert considered the 1906 earthquake to be one fo the highlights of his career. He was to be comissioned by both the State and Federal committees that investigated the earthquake.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗

USGS2010

Seismicity of the Earth 1900-2010, Aleutian arc and vicinity

This map shows details of the Aleutian arc not visible in an earlier publication. The Aleutian arc extends about 3,000 km from the Gulf of Alaska to the Kamchatka Peninsula. It marks the region where the Pacific plate subducts into the mantle beneath the North America plate. This subduction is responsible for the generation of the Aleutian Islands and the deep offshore Aleutian Trench. Relative to a fixed North America plate, the Pacific plate is moving northwest at a rate that increases from about 55 mm per year at the arc's eastern edge to 75 mm per year near its western terminus. In the east, the convergence of the plates is nearly perpendicular to the plate boundary. However, because of the boundary's curvature, as one travels westward along the arc, the subduction becomes more and more oblique to the boundary until the relative plate motion becomes parallel to the arc at the Near Islands near its western edge. Subduction zones such as the Aleutian arc are geologically complex and produce numerous earthquakes from multiple sources. Deformation of the overriding North America plate generates shallow crustal earthquakes, whereas slip at the interface of the plates generates interplate earthquakes that extend from near the base of the trench to depths of 40 to 60 km. At greater depths, Aleutian arc earthquakes occur within the subducting Pacific plate and can reach depths of 300 km. Since 1900, six great earthquakes have occurred along the Aleutian Trench, Alaska Peninsula, and Gulf of Alaska: M8.4 1906 Rat Islands; M8.6 1938 Shumagin Islands; M8.6 1946 Unimak Island; M8.6 1957 Andreanof Islands; M9.2 1964 Prince William Sound; and M8.7 1965 Rat Islands. Several relevant tectonic elements (plate boundaries and active volcanoes) provide a context for the seismicity presented on the main map panel. The plate boundaries are most accurate along the axis of the Aleutian Trench and more diffuse or speculative in extreme northeastern Russia. The active volcanoes parallel the Aleutian Trench from the Gulf of Alaska to the Rat Islands.

Alaska↗

USGS2004

Glacier ice mass fluctuations and fault instability in tectonically active Southern Alaska

Across the plate boundary zone in south central Alaska, tectonic strain rates are high in a region that includes large glaciers undergoing wastage (glacier retreat and thinning) and surges. For the coastal region between the Bering and Malaspina Glaciers, the average ice mass thickness changes between 1995 and 2000 range from 1 to 5 m/year. These ice changes caused solid Earth displacements in our study region with predicted values of -10 to 50 mm in the vertical and predicted horizontal displacements of 0-10 mm at variable orientations. Relative to stable North America, observed horizontal rates of tectonic deformation range from 10 to 40 mm/year to the north-northwest and the predicted tectonic uplift rates range from approximately 0 mm/year near the Gulf of Alaska coast to 12 mm/year further inland. The ice mass changes between 1995 and 2000 resulted in discernible changes in the Global Positioning System (GPS) measured station positions of one site (ISLE) located adjacent to the Bagley Ice Valley and at one site, DON, located south of the Bering Glacier terminus. In addition to modifying the surface displacements rates, we evaluated the influence ice changes during the Bering glacier surge cycle had on the background seismic rate. We found an increase in the number of earthquakes (ML???2.5) and seismic rate associated with ice thinning and a decrease in the number of earthquakes and seismic rate associated with ice thickening. These results support the hypothesis that ice mass changes can modulate the background seismic rate. During the last century, wastage of the coastal glaciers in the Icy Bay and Malaspina region indicates thinning of hundreds of meters and in areas of major retreat, maximum losses of ice thickness approaching 1 km. Between the 1899 Yakataga and Yakutat earthquakes (Mw=8.1, 8.1) and prior to the 1979 St. Elias earthquake (M s=7.2), the plate interface below Icy Bay was locked and tectonic strain accumulated. We used estimated ice mass change during the 1899-1979 time period to calculate the change in the fault stability margin (FSM) prior to the 1979 St. Elias earthquake. Our results suggest that a cumulative decrease in the fault stability margin at seismogenic depths, due to ice wastage over 80 years, was large, up to ???2 MPa. Ice wastage would promote thrust faulting in events such as the 1979 earthquake and subsequent aftershocks.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2026

An Antarctic ecosystem value index to quantify ecological value across trophic levels and over time

The Southern Ocean around Antarctica is one of the fastest changing regions on the planet and an emerging resource frontier for fisheries. Here, we present the Antarctic Ecosystem Value Index created by merging ecosystem information across food web trophic levels, from phytoplankton to fish and penguins, to quantify the ecological value of marine areas around the Antarctic continent. We find that coastal polynyas - areas of reduced sea-ice - have Index values 31–72% higher than surrounding areas, suggesting that these areas are biologically valuable hot spots for a number of ice-dependent Antarctic Species. Using output from an Earth system model to generate future projections of the Index, we find that high-value locations, often within polynyas, are likely to continue to be valuable throughout the 21st century despite environmental changes. The Antarctic Ecosystem Value Index indicates that penguins lose importance as their habitat becomes increasingly unsuitable, so protecting high-value habitat areas may be critical for these species. This study also shows that while many high-value Index areas are within existing or proposed Marine Protected Areas, there are several opportunities for adopting additional protection, particularly in East Antarctica and the Amundsen Sea.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2001

Our evolving conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem

A primary focus of coastal science during the past 3 decades has been the question: How does anthropogenic nutrient enrichment cause change in the structure or function of nearshore coastal ecosystems? This theme of environmental science is recent, so our conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem continues to change rapidly. In this review, I suggest that the early (Phase I) conceptual model was strongly influenced by limnologists, who began intense study of lake eutrophication by the 1960s. The Phase I model emphasized changing nutrient input as a signal, and responses to that signal as increased phytoplankton biomass and primary production, decomposition of phytoplankton-derived organic matter, and enhanced depletion of oxygen from bottom waters. Coastal research in recent decades has identified key differences in the responses of lakes and coastal-estuarine ecosystems to nutrient enrichment. The contemporary (Phase II) conceptual model reflects those differences and includes explicit recognition of (1) system-specific attributes that act as a filter to modulate the responses to enrichment (leading to large differences among estuarine-coastal systems in their sensitivity to nutrient enrichment); and (2) a complex suite of direct and indirect responses including linked changes in: water transparency, distribution of vascular plants and biomass of macroalgae, sediment biogeochemistry and nutrient cycling, nutrient ratios and their regulation of phytoplankton community composition, frequency of toxic/harmful algal blooms, habitat quality for metazoans, reproduction/growth/survival of pelagic and benthic invertebrates, and subtle changes such as shifts in the seasonality of ecosystem functions. Each aspect of the Phase II model is illustrated here with examples from coastal ecosystems around the world. In the last section of this review I present one vision of the next (Phase III) stage in the evolution of our conceptual model, organized around 5 questions that will guide coastal science in the early 21st century: (1) How do system-specific attributes constrain or amplify the responses of coastal ecosystems to nutrient enrichment? (2) How does nutrient enrichment interact with other stressors (toxic contaminants, fishing harvest, aquaculture, nonindigenous species, habitat loss, climate change, hydrologic manipulations) to change coastal ecosystems? (3) How are responses to multiple stressors linked? (4) How does human-induced change in the coastal zone impact the Earth system as habitat for humanity and other species? (5) How can a deeper scientific understanding of the coastal eutrophication problem be applied to develop tools for building strategies at ecosystem restoration or rehabilitation?

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗