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USGS2024

Streamflow characteristics and trends in New Jersey, water years 1903–2017

As New Jersey’s population density remains high, so does its requirements for water management. Understanding the streamflow conditions throughout the state and how they may have changed over time is an important part of managing the water resources within the state. The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection has many responsibilities related to protecting the environment and natural resources and among them is protecting the waters in the lakes, rivers, and streams of New Jersey for current and future use. To support this mission, the U.S. Geological Survey updated high- and low-streamflow statistics for 97 continuous-record streamgages and low-streamflow statistics for 719 partial-record streamgages throughout the state. The continuous-record streamgages included in the study had a minimum of 20 years of record, spanning from 1903 to 2017. This study is an update to previous studies that documented the high- and low-streamflow statistics for New Jersey streams in the 1970s and in 2005. The 1982 report by Gillespie and Schopp documented low-flow characteristics and flow duration for about 400 continuous and partial-record streamgages. The U.S. Geological Survey computed streamflow statistics including, but not limited to, maximum, minimum, and means for period of record, flow durations, nonexceedance high- and low-flow frequencies, base flow, runoff, peak-to-mean flow ratios, and September median streamflow. Overall, both high and low flows are generally increasing in New Jersey, though the results are not uniform across the State. Streamflow trends and changes to duration and frequency statistics can be influenced by local water use, in addition to climate variables. The resulting computations at some streamgages indicated considerable positive change while others showed considerable negative change. Water managers and regulators can use the data provided here and in the companion data release to assess individual stream reaches and watershed management areas to evaluate the available resources and changes, which may have developed during the periods for which streamflow statistics are available.

New Jersey↗

USGS2013

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States

A hydrologic model of the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (ACFB) has been developed as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center effort to provide integrated science that helps resource managers understand the effect of climate change on a range of ecosystem responses. The hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. The ACFB PRMS model simulates streamflow throughout the approximately 50,700 square-kilometer basin on a daily time step for the period 1950–99 using gridded climate forcings of air temperature and precipitation, and parameters derived from spatial data layers of altitude, land cover, soils, surficial geology, depression storage (small water bodies), and data from 56 USGS streamgages. Measured streamflow data from 35 of the 56 USGS streamgages were used to calibrate and evaluate simulated basin streamflow; the remaining gage locations were used for model delineation only. The model matched measured daily streamflow at 31 of the 35 calibration gages with Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Index (NS) greater than 0.6. Streamflow data for some calibration gages were augmented for regulation and water use effects to represent more natural flow volumes. Time-static parameters describing land cover limited the ability of the simulation to match historical runoff in the more developed subbasins. Overall, the PRMS simulation of the ACFB provides a good representation of basin hydrology on annual and monthly time steps. Calibration subbasins were analyzed by separating the 35 subbasins into five classes based on physiography, land use, and stream type (tributary or mainstem). The lowest NS values were rarely below 0.6, whereas the median NS for all five classes was within 0.74 to 0.96 for annual mean streamflow, 0.89 to 0.98 for mean monthly streamflow, and 0.82 to 0.98 for monthly mean streamflow. The median bias for all five classes was within –4.3 to 0.8 percent for annual mean streamflow, –6.3 to 0.5 percent for mean monthly streamflow, and –9.3 to 1.3 percent for monthly mean streamflow. The NS results combined with the percent bias results indicated a good to very good streamflow volume simulation for all subbasins. This simulation of the ACFB provides a foundation for future modeling and interpretive studies. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS can be used to inform other types of simulations; water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations are three examples. In addition, possible future hydrologic conditions could be studied using this model in combination with land cover projections and downscaled general circulation model results.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗

USGS2009

Spatially referenced statistical assessment of dissolved-solids load sources and transport in streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) discharges more than 6 million tons of dissolved solids annually, about 40 to 45 percent of which are attributed to agricultural activities. The U.S. Department of the Interior estimates economic damages related to salinity in excess of $330 million annually in the Colorado River Basin. Salinity in the UCRB, as measured by dissolved-solids load and concentration, has been studied extensively during the past century. Over this period, a solid conceptual understanding of the sources and transport mechanisms of dissolved solids in the basin has been developed. This conceptual understanding was incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) surface-water quality model to examine statistically the dissolved-solids supply and transport within the UCRB. Geologic and agricultural sources of dissolved solids in the UCRB were defined and represented in the model. On the basis of climatic and hydrologic conditions along with data availability, water year 1991 was selected for examination with SPARROW. Dissolved-solids loads for 218 monitoring sites were used to calibrate a dissolved-solids SPARROW model for the UCRB. The calibrated model generally captures the transport mechanisms that deliver dissolved solids to streams of the UCRB as evidenced by R2 and yield R2 values of 0.98 and 0.71, respectively. Model prediction error is approximated at 51 percent. Model results indicate that of the seven geologic source groups, the high-yield sedimentary Mesozoic rocks have the largest yield of dissolved solids, about 41.9 tons per square mile (tons/mi2). Irrigated sedimentary-clastic Mesozoic lands have an estimated yield of 1,180 tons/mi2, and irrigated sedimentary-clastic Tertiary lands have an estimated yield of 662 tons/mi2. Coefficients estimated for the seven landscape transport characteristics seem to agree well with the conceptual understanding of the role they play in the delivery of dissolved solids to streams in the UCRB. Predictions of dissolved-solids loads were generated for more than 10,000 stream reaches of the stream network defined in the UCRB. From these estimates, the downstream accumulation of dissolved solids, including natural and agricultural components, were examined in selected rivers. Contributions from each of the 11 dissolved-solids sources were also examined at select locations in the Grand, Green, and San Juan Divisions of the UCRB. At the downstream boundary of the UCRB, the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, Arizona, monitoring site, the dissolved-solids contribution of irrigated agricultural lands and natural sources were about 45 and 57 percent, respectively. Finally, model predictions, including the contributions of natural and agricultural sources for selected locations in the UCRB, were compared with results from two previous studies.

Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, Utah, Wyomin↗

USGS2025

Using satellite imagery and soil data to understand occurrences and migration of soil conditions harmful to archaeological sites on Jamestown Island, Virginia

Many know Jamestown Island, Virginia, hereafter referred to as “the Island,” located near the mouth of the James River into the Chesapeake Bay, as the home of the first permanent English settlement in North America. However, the Island is home to 15,000 years’ worth of cultural artifacts and archaeological sites. In addition to its rich history, the Island is home to a variety of native plants and animals, including many rare, threatened, and endangered species. Preserving historical and natural resources is part of Colonial National Historic Park’s (COLO) enabling legislation. To this end, COLO has been seeking data to inform management decisions on how to prioritize resources to preserve archaeological sites and anticipate changes to natural systems from sea-level rise and other effects of climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in partnership with COLO, collected and analyzed data to help determine soil conditions detrimental to archaeological sites across the Island using a combination of soil samples and assessments of vegetative health as a proxy for soil conditions. This study combined normalized difference vegetative index raster grids spanning 8 years, 2010 to 2018, and soil data from 50 sites sampled in dry (June 2021) and wet months (March 2022) at two different soil horizons to investigate potential hazards to plant health and corrosive conditions in the unsaturated subsurface. The data suggest that access to the James River drives soil pH and soil conductivity. Areas of the Island that are subject to frequent inundation were observed to have both higher soil conductivity (as high as 4,845 millisiemens per meter [mS/m]) and lower pH (as low as 3.84). Higher soil conductivity, or salinity, and more acidity create corrosive environment, which can destroy buried artifacts and are detrimental to vegetative health. These conditions were not limited to the edges of the Island, like Black Point. Inland locations, such as the Pitch and Tar Swamp, were observed to have some of the highest conductivity values, which were likely caused by from a combination of inflow of James River water along Back Creek into the Pitch and Tar Swamp and proximity to the Visitor Center and other high-traffic areas of the Island. A difference of normalized difference vegetative index values from 2010 to 2018 raster grid appears to support this, showing an apparent loss of vegetative health in marsh grass in the Pitch and Tar Swamp. These data may inform COLO about areas of the Island that are currently most threatened by corrosive conditions and how those conditions are likely to migrate in the future.

Virginia↗

USGS2025

Modeling seawater intrusion along the Alabama coastline using physical and machine learning models to evaluate the effects of multiscale natural and anthropogenic stresses

Seawater intrusion threatens groundwater resources in coastal regions, including southern Baldwin County, Alabama, where the freshwater-saltwater interface dynamics remain poorly understood. To address this gap, this study uses combined physics-based and machine-learning models to quantify seawater intrusion caused by natural (storm surges) and anthropogenic (human activities) perturbations. The long short-term memory network and wavelet analysis were used to assess vertical aquifer vulnerabilities, revealing that the shallow part of the Coastal lowlands aquifer system (CL1) in the southern Baldwin County region is more susceptible to sea level rise and groundwater extraction than deeper aquifers. Based on these findings, a cross-sectional numerical model (physics approach) for the CL1 aquifer was developed to evaluate tidal and storm surge effects, using Tropical Storm Claudette (June 2021) as a case study. Results showed that tidal fluctuations had a minimal impact on the saltwater-freshwater interface location, whereas storm surges caused substantial inland movement, with effects lasting for nine months. The steady-state version of the three-dimensional (3D) physical model predicted seawater intrusion across the entire area, and convolutional neural network-based modeling further validated the model results. The 3D physical model was also applied to a smaller area to assess human impact on the saltwater interface due to two groundwater pumping scenarios (± 50% of the baseline pumping rate). Results revealed that a 50% increase in groundwater withdrawals caused seawater to advance ~ 320 m inland, whereas a 50% reduction led to a ~ 270-meter retreat. This study highlights the vulnerability of Alabama’s shallow coastal aquifers to seawater intrusion due to storm surges and human activities, and demonstrates that combining physics-based models with machine learning approaches can improve groundwater predictions, though its accuracy depends on the availability of site-specific data.

Alabama↗

USGS2008

Variation in biotic assemblages and stream-habitat data with sampling strategy and method in tidal segments of Highland and Marchand Bayous, Galveston County, Texas, 2007

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Houston-Galveston Area Council and the Galveston Bay Estuary Program under the authority of the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, did a study in 2007 to assess the variation in biotic assemblages (benthic macroinvertebrate and fish communities) and stream-habitat data with sampling strategy and method in tidal segments of Highland Bayou and Marchand Bayou in Galveston County. Data were collected once in spring and once in summer 2007 from four stream sites (reaches) (short names Hitchcock, Fairwood, Bayou Dr, and Texas City) of Highland Bayou and from one reach (short name Marchand) in Marchand Bayou. Only stream-habitat data from summer 2007 samples were used for this report. Additional samples were collected at the Hitchcock, Fairwood, and Bayou Dr reaches (multisample reaches) during summer 2007 to evaluate variation resulting from sampling intensity and location. Graphical analysis of benthic macroinvertebrate community data using a multidimensional scaling technique indicates there are taxonomic differences between the spring and summer samples. Seasonal differences in communities primarily were related to decreases in the abundance of chironomids and polychaetes in summer samples. Multivariate Analysis of Similarities tests of additional summer 2007 benthic macroinvertebrate samples from Hitchcock, Fairwood, and Bayou Dr indicated significant taxonomic differences between the sampling locations at all three reaches. In general, the deepwater samples had the smallest numbers for benthic macroinvertebrate taxa richness and abundance. Graphical analysis of species-level fish data indicates no consistent seasonal difference in fish taxa across reaches. Increased seining intensity at the multisample reaches did not result in a statistically significant difference in fish communities. Increased seining resulted in some changes in taxa richness and community diversity metrics. Diversity increases associated with increased electrofishing intensity were relatively consistent across the two multisample electrofishing reaches (Hitchcock and Fairwood). Differences in the physical characteristics of the Highland and Marchand Bayou reaches are largely the result of the differences in channel gradient and position in the drainage network or watershed of each reach. No trees were observed on the bank adjacent to the five transects at either the Bayou Dr or Texas City reaches. Riparian vegetation at the more downstream Fairwood, Bayou Dr, and Texas City reaches was dominated by less-woody and more-herbaceous shrubs, and grasses and forbs, than at the more upstream Hitchcock and Marchand reaches. The width of the vegetation buffer was variable among all reaches and appeared to be more related to the extent of anthropogenic development in the riparian zone rather than to natural changes in the riparian buffer. Four additional transects per reach were sampled for habitat variables at Hitchcock, Fairwood, and Bayou Dr. Medians of most stream-habitat variables changed with increased sampling intensity (addition of two and four transects to the standard five transects), although none of the differences in medians were statistically significant. All habitat quality index values for the five reaches scored in the intermediate category. Increasing sampling intensity did not change the habitat quality index score for any of the reaches.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2016

Vulnerabilities of national parks in the American Midwest to climate and land use changes

Many national parks in the American Midwest are surrounded by agricultural or urban areas or are in highly fragmented or rapidly changing landscapes. An environmental stressor is a physical, chemical, or biological condition that affects the functioning or productivity of species or ecosystems. Climate change is just one of many stressors on park natural resources; others include urbanization, land use change, air and water pollution, and so on. Understanding and comparing the relative vulnerability of a suite of parks to projected climate and land use changes is important for region-wide planning. A vulnerability assessment of 60 units in the 13-state U.S. National Park Service Midwestern administrative region to climate and land use change used existing data from multiple sources. Assessment included three components: individual park exposure (5 metrics), sensitivity (5 metrics), and constraints to adaptive capacity (8 metrics) under 2 future climate scenarios. The three components were combined into an overall vulnerability score. Metrics were measures of existing or projected conditions within park boundaries, within 10-kilometer buffers surrounding parks, and within ecoregions that contain or intersect them. Data were normalized within the range of values for all assessed parks, resulting in high, medium, and low relative rankings for exposure, sensitivity, constraints to adaptive capacity, and overall vulnerability. Results are consistent with assessments regarding patterns and rates of climate change nationwide but provide greater detail and relative risk for Midwestern parks. Park overall relative vulnerability did not differ between climate scenarios. Rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and constraints to adaptive capacity varied geographically and indicate regional conservation planning opportunities. The most important stressors for the most vulnerable Midwestern parks are those related to sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of the park) and constraints on adaptive capacity (characteristics of the surrounding landscape) rather than exposure to external forces, including climate change. Output will allow individual park managers to understand which metrics weigh most heavily in the overall vulnerability of their park and can be used for region-wide responses and resource allocation for adaptation efforts.

Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michiga↗

USGS2011

Natural resource mitigation, adaptation and research needs related to climate change in the Great Basin and Mojave Desert

This report synthesizes the knowledge, opinions, and concerns of many Federal and State land managers, scientists, stakeholders, and partners from a workshop, held at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20-22, 2010. Land managers, research scientists, and resource specialists identified common concerns regarding the potential effects of climate change on public lands and natural resources in the Great Basin and Mojave Desert and developed recommendations for mitigation, adaptation, and research needs. Water and, conversely, the effects of drought emerged as a common theme in all breakout sessions on terrestrial and aquatic species at risk, managing across boundaries, monitoring, and ecosystem services. Climate change models for the southwestern deserts predict general warming and drying with increasing precipitation variability year to year. Scientists noted that under these changing conditions the past may no longer be a guide to the future in which managers envision increasing conflicts between human water uses and sustaining ecosystems. Increasing environmental stress also is expected as a consequence of shifting ecosystem boundaries and species distributions, expansion of non-native species, and decoupling of biotic mutualisms, leading to increasingly unstable biologic communities. Managers uniformly expressed a desire to work across management and agency boundaries at a landscape scale but conceded that conflicting agency missions and budgetary constraints often impede collaboration. More and better science is needed to cope with the effects of climate change but, perhaps even more important is the application of science to management issues using the methods of adaptive management based on long-term monitoring to assess the merits of management actions. Access to data is essential for science-based land management. Basic inventories, spatial databases, baseline condition assessments, data quality assurance, and data sharing were identified as top information priorities by all participants at this workshop. Optimizing the utility of ecosystem monitoring data will require standardizing monitoring protocols across agencies. Better communication among researchers and managers and cooperation through partnerships to manage resources across boundaries were emphasized as necessary for adapting to changing climatic conditions. However, even these strategies may be insufficient unless policy mandates, agency missions, and funding are coordinated at a high level.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Land area change in coastal Louisiana: A multidecadal perspective (from 1956 to 2006)

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) analyzed changes in the configuration of land and water in coastal Louisiana by using a sequential series of 14 data sets summarizing land and water areas from 1956 to 2006. The purpose of this study is to provide a spatially and temporally consistent source of quantitative information on land area across coastal Louisiana, broken into three physiographic provinces (the term 'coastal Louisiana' is used to present data on the collective area). The land-water data sets used in this study are interpreted through spatial analysis and by linear regression analysis. The spatial depictions of land area change reveal a complex and interwoven mosaic of loss and gain patterns caused by natural and human-induced processes operating at varied temporal and spatial scales, resulting in fluctuating contributions to coastal loss. The linear regression analysis provides a robust estimate of recent change trends by comparing land area over time for all data sets from 1985 to 2004 and from 1985 to 2006 by physiographic province across coastal Louisiana. The 1956 to 2006 map showing multidecadal changes, along with the linear regressions of land area change presented in this study, provide a comprehensive and concise presentation of historical trends and rates of land area change in coastal Louisiana. Taking a broad historical view provides an in-depth understanding of land area changes over time. For example, one observation provided by our historical review is that the majority of the widespread, nontransitory land gains depicted on the map over the past 50 years, with the exception of the progradation of the Atchafafalaya River and Wax Lake deltas, are primarily related to sediment placement and landward migration of barrier islands. Another point revealed by our historical approach is that recent land losses caused by hurricanes sometimes commingled with or exacerbated older losses formed during the 1956 to 1978 period. Furthermore, our analyses also show how the immediate impacts of extreme storms can alter the long-term, time-averaged trends of landscape change, thus limiting the range of projections for the future. For this reason, this study does not include trend projections beyond 2015 because of uncertainties related to recovery from the 2005 hurricane season and the potential for other episodic events that could skew future rates of change.

Louisiana↗

USGS2009

Geomorphic segmentation, hydraulic geometry, and hydraulic microhabitats of the Niobrara River, Nebraska — Methods and initial results

The Niobrara River of Nebraska is a geologically, ecologically, and economically significant resource. The State of Nebraska has recognized the need to better manage the surface- and ground-water resources of the Niobrara River so they are sustainable in the long term. In cooperation with the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, the U.S. Geological Survey is investigating the hydrogeomorphic settings and hydraulic geometry of the Niobrara River to assist in characterizing the types of broad-scale physical habitat attributes that may be of importance to the ecological resources of the river system. This report includes an inventory of surface-water and ground-water hydrology data, surface water-quality data, a longitudinal geomorphic segmentation and characterization of the main channel and its valley, and hydraulic geometry relations for the 330-mile section of the Niobrara River from Dunlap Diversion Dam in western Nebraska to the Missouri River confluence. Hydraulic microhabitats also were analyzed using available data from discharge measurements to demonstrate the potential application of these data and analysis methods. The main channel of the Niobrara was partitioned into three distinct fluvial geomorphic provinces: an upper province characterized by open valleys and a sinuous, equiwidth channel; a central province characterized by mixed valley and channel settings, including several entrenched canyon reaches; and a lower province where the valley is wide, yet restricted, but the river also is wide and persistently braided. Within the three fluvial geomorphic provinces, 36 geomorphic segments were identified using a customized, process-orientated classification scheme, which described the basic physical characteristics of the Niobrara River and its valley. Analysis of the longitudinal slope characteristics indicated that the Niobrara River longitudinal profile may be largely bedrock-controlled, with slope inflections co-located at changes in bedrock type at river level. Hydraulic geometry relations indicated that local (at-a-station) channel adjustments of the Niobrara River to changing discharge are accommodated mainly by changes in velocity, and streamwise adjustments are accommodated through changes in channel width. Downstream hydraulic geometry relations are in general agreement with values previously published for rivers of the Great Plains, but coefficients are likely skewed low because the locations of the streamflow-gaging stations used in this analysis are located at natural or engineered constrictions and may not be accurately representing downstream adjustment processes of the Niobrara River. A demonstration analysis of hydraulic microhabitat attributes at a single station indicated that changes in velocity-related habitat types is the primary microhabitat adjustment over a range of discharges, but the magnitude of that adjustment for any particular discharge is temporally variable.

Nebraska↗

USGS2022

Field-trip guide to continental arc to rift volcanism of the southern Rocky Mountains—Southern Rocky Mountain, Taos Plateau, and Jemez Mountains volcanic fields of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico

The southern Rocky Mountains of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado preserve the Oligocene to Pleistocene record of North American continental arc to rift volcanism. The 35–23 million year old (Ma) southern Rocky Mountain volcanic field (SRMVF), spectacularly preserved in the San Juan Mountains of southern Colorado, records the evolution of large andesitic stratovolcanoes to complex caldera clusters, from which at least 22 major ignimbrite sheets (each 150–5,000 cubic kilometers) were erupted. Outflow deposits of the SRMVF preserved along the broadly uplifted northwest flank of the northern Rio Grande rift basin (the San Luis Valley) provide critical structural and temporal constraints on the inception of crustal extension. Coincident with waning stages of SRMVF caldera-forming volcanism (~25.4 Ma), extensional tectonism was accompanied by a transition from bimodal early Miocene to intermediate-composition late Miocene and dominantly basaltic Pliocene rift volcanism of the Taos Plateau in the southern San Luis Basin. Concomitant rift volcanism in the Española Basin and bordering Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico records a similar Miocene eruptive history dominated by intermediate-composition volcanism that transitioned locally to Pliocene rift-related basaltic volcanism of the Cerros del Rio volcanic field and culminated in eruptions of the iconic rhyolitic Pleistocene Bandelier Tuff and formation of the Valles Caldera along the northwestern rift-basin margin. This 6-day, 7-night field trip will focus, in broadly equal proportions, on rift-related extensional volcanism of the Jemez Mountains and Taos Plateau regions during the first half of the trip, and on caldera-forming volcanism of the southern Rocky Mountain volcanic field during the second half of the trip. The 35-million-year volcanic history of the region highlighted by new geologic mapping, high-resolution geochronology, petrologic, geochemical, and geophysical data facilitates discussion of (1) the magmatic response to the tectonic transition from subducted-slab arc to continental-rift volcanism; (2) the nature and temporal evolution of rift magmas; (3) fault controls on the spatial evolution of rift magmatism; (4) the diversity of continental-arc ignimbrite volcanism and associated lavas; (5) ignimbrite caldera structure and associated intrusions in three-dimension; (6) the role of recycled crystal mush and magmatic cumulates during growth of Cordilleran batholiths; and (7) high-precision geochronologic contributions to interpretation of relations between regional tectonic and volcanic processes. Most stops will be along roads, but there will be moderate hikes on trails of less than 1-hour duration covering 1–2 kilometers (0.6–1.2 miles) with modest elevation gain of <150 meters (<492 feet). The route will progress in reverse stratigraphic order, starting in the Jemez Mountains of New Mexico and proceed northward to San Luis Basin and San Luis Hills before turning west to the southeast and central San Juan Mountains. Our last full day takes us to the little-visited and only recently mapped, Bonanza caldera of the northeastern San Juan Mountains and on the final day, we leave the San Luis Valley to briefly explore the Tertiary subvolcanic plutons of the Collegiate Range along the west side of the Arkansas Valley rift valley, en route to Denver. The authors of all daily contributions acknowledge the helpful reviews by Amy Gilmer and Joe Colgan and thank Christine Chan and Jeremy Havens for assistance with figures, tables, and guidebook text.

Colorado, New Mexico↗

USGS2019

India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition-02: Operational and technical summary

The India National Gas Hydrate Program is being steered by the government of India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG) with participation of Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH), Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC), and the National Oil Companies and Research Institutes of India. The India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01 (NGHP-01) established the presence of gas hydrate in the Krishna Godavari (KG) and Mahanadi Basins and in the offshore area of the Andaman Sea Basin. However, the gas hydrates discovered during NGHP-01 were mainly distributed as fracture-filling material in fine-grained clay-rich sediments. The India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) was carried out with an objective to discover gas hydrate in sand-rich sediment along the eastern offshore margin of India. ONGC planned and executed NGHP-02 on the behalf of the MoPNG. NGHP-02 started on March 3, 2015 and was completed on July 28, 2015 (total 147 days) using the Japanese scientific Drilling Vessel Chikyu (D/V Chikyu). During NGHP-02, 42 holes at 25 sites were drilled, cored, and/or surveyed with downhole logging tools. These sites were located in four areas along the eastern margin of India and formally named Area A (Mahanadi Basin, three sites), Area B (northern part of the KG-Basin, twelve sites), Area C (central part of the KG-Basin, six sites), and Area E (southern part to the KG-Basin, four sites). All 25 sites established during NGHP-02 were first drilled and logged with logging-while-drilling (LWD) tools and an additional 17 holes were then drilled and/or cored with conventional coring tools (HPCS/ESCS) or pressure coring tools (PCTB). Wireline logging was conducted in 10 holes and formation tests using a dual packer Modular Formation Dynamics Tester (MDT) tool were carried out in two holes. The onboard science team used the laboratory facilities on the D/V Chikyu to examine and analyse the physical properties, geochemistry, and sedimentology of all the cores collected during the expedition. Core samples were also analysed in additional post-expedition shore-based studies conducted in numerous domestic and international gas hydrate research laboratories. The NGHP-02 sediment cores were archived at the National Gas Hydrate Core Repository in Mumbai (India), which is associated with the ONGC Gas Hydrate Research and Technology Centre (GHRTC). The necessary data for characterizing the occurrence of gas hydrate, such as interstitial water chlorinities, core-derived gas chemistry, physical and sedimentological properties, thermal images of the recovered cores, pressure core and downhole measured logging data (LWD and/or conventional wireline log data), were obtained from most of the drill sites established during NGHP-02. Almost all the drill sites yielded evidence for the occurrence of gas hydrate; however, the inferred in situ concentration of gas hydrate varied substantially from site to site. For the most part, the interpretation of downhole logging data, core thermal images, interstitial water analyses, and pressure core images from the sites established during NGHP-02 indicate that the occurrence of concentrated gas hydrate is mostly associated with coarser grained (sand-rich) sediments. This paper presents the operational and technical summary of NGHP-02. NGHP-02 started on March 3, 2015 and was completed on July 28, 2015 (total 147 days) using the Japanese scientific Drilling Vessel Chikyu (D/V Chikyu). During NGHP-02, 42 holes at 25 sites were drilled, cored, and/or surveyed with downhole logging tools. These sites were located in four areas along the eastern margin of India and formally named Area A (Mahanadi Basin, three sites), Area B (northern part of the KG-Basin, twelve sites), Area C (central part of the KG-Basin, six sites), and Area E (southern part to the KG-Basin, four sites). All 25 sites established during NGHP-02 were first drilled and logged with logging-while-drilling (LWD) to

Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology↗

USGS2023

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to simulate the streamflows and water balance of the Red River Basin, 1980–2016

The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to develop and calibrate a streamflow and water balance model for the Red River Basin as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Census, a research effort focused on developing innovative water accounting tools and conducting assessments of water use and availability at regional and national spatial scales. The PRMS is a deterministic model that simulates the effects of climate, land cover, and water use on watershed hydrology on the basis of physical processes and spatial attributes of the watershed. The model was used to estimate streamflow at daily and monthly temporal scales for the 1980–2016 period and to evaluate the impacts of natural and anthropogenic influences on streamflow and water budget components. Sixty-three percent of streamgages were calibrated successfully for the monthly time step and 43 percent of streamgages were successfully calibrated for the daily time step. Some of the challenges of calibrating streamgages included estimating low amounts of streamflow in dry areas of the basin and accurately representing watershed characteristics related to evapotranspiration in the basin, among other factors. The model estimated streamflow with some accuracy for 42 percent and 29 percent of the 73 streamgages used to evaluate the model at monthly and daily time steps, respectively. Relative to no-water-use conditions, water use increased streamflow volumes (that is, return flow from reservoir releases) the most on the main stem of the Red River, the North Fork of the Red River, and the Ouachita River. Water withdrawal decreased streamflow volumes most in the Red River near the outlet of the basin and in Caney Creek. Streamflow volumes on the North Fork of the Red River changed most as a result of water use. The Red River Basin PRMS model provided estimates of streamflow that were limited in their accuracy by (1) the availability of accurate water-use data; (2) the coarse resolution of spatial parameters (such as those for impervious area or plant canopy), which leads to the homogenization of physical features in small watersheds in the model domain; and (3) the accuracy of spatial patterns of precipitation distribution across the model domain. Improvements in the quality and quantity of available water-use data and finer resolution spatial parameter and climate data could lead to the development of better-informed models in the future that are capable of making more accurate estimates of streamflow, because they are more representative of physical and hydrologic conditions in the Red River Basin.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma↗

USGS2009

Investigation of Contaminated Groundwater at Solid Waste Management Unit 12, Naval Weapons Station Charleston, North Charleston, South Carolina, 2008

The U.S. Geological Survey and the Naval Facilities Engineering Command Southeast investigated natural and engineered remediation of chlorinated volatile organic compound (VOC) groundwater contamination at Solid Waste Management Unit 12 at the Naval Weapons Station Charleston, North Charleston, South Carolina, beginning in 2000. The primary contaminants of interest in the study are tetrachloroethene, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, trichloroethene, cis-1,2-dichloroethene, vinyl chloride, 1,1-dichloroethane, and 1,1-dichloroethene. Engineered remediation aspects at the site consist of a zero-valent-iron permeable reactive barrier (PRB) installed in December 2002 intercepting the contamination plume and a phytoremediation test stand of loblolly pine trees planted in the source area in May 2003. The U.S. Geological Survey planted an additional phytoremediation test stand of loblolly pine trees on the upgradient side of the southern end of the PRB in February 2008. At least once during the summer, however, the trees were inadvertently mowed during lawn cutting activity. The PRB along the main axis of the contaminant plume appears to be actively removing contamination. In contrast to the central area of the PRB, the data from the southern end of the PRB indicate that contaminants are moving around the PRB. Concentrations in wells upgradient from the PRB showed a general decrease in VOC concentrations. VOC concentrations in some wells in the forest downgradient from the PRB showed a sharp increase in 2005, followed by a decrease in 2006. Farther downgradient in the forest, the VOC concentrations began to increase in 2007 and continued to increase into 2008. The VOC-concentration changes in groundwater beneath the forest appear to indicate movement of a groundwater-contaminant pulse through the forest. It also is possible that the data may represent lateral shifting of the plume in response to changes in groundwater-flow direction.

South Carolina↗

USGS2011

Potential effects of roadside dry wells on groundwater quality on the Island of Hawai'i — Assessment using numerical groundwater models

Widespread use of dry wells to dispose of roadside runoff has raised concern about the potential effects on the quality of groundwater on the Island of Hawai‘i. This study used semi-generic numerical models of groundwater flow and contaminant transport to assess the potential effect of dry wells on groundwater quality on the Island of Hawai‘i. The semi-generic models are generalized numerical groundwater-flow and solute-transport models that have a range of aquifer properties and regional groundwater gradients that are characteristic for the island. Several semi-generic models were created to study the effect of dry wells in different hydrogeologic conditions, such as different unsaturated-zone thicknesses or different aquifer characteristics. Results indicate that mixing of contaminated water from the surface with contaminant-free water in the saturated aquifer immediately reduces the contaminant concentration. The amount the concentration is reduced depends on the hydraulic properties of the aquifer in a given area, the thickness of the unsaturated zone, and whether the infiltration is focused in a small area of a dry well or spread naturally over a larger area. Model simulations indicate that focusing infiltration of contaminated runoff through a dry well can substantially increase contaminant concentrations in the underlying saturated aquifer relative to infiltration under natural conditions. Simulated concentrations directly beneath a dry well were nearly 8 times higher than the simulated concentrations directly beneath a broad infiltration area representing the natural condition. Where dry wells are present, contaminant concentrations in the underlying saturated aquifer are lower when the unsaturated zone is thicker and higher when the unsaturated zone is thinner. Contaminant concentrations decline quickly as the contaminant plume migrates, with the regional groundwater flow, away from the dry well. The differences among concentrations resulting from the various unsaturated-zone thicknesses also diminish with distance from the dry well. At a horizontal distance of about 700 ft downgradient from the dry well, all simulated maximum concentrations were less than 1 percent of the concentration in the infiltration water; at about 0.5 mi downgradient from the dry well, all simulated concentrations were equal to or less than 0.1 percent. Actual concentrations may be even lower than indicated by the models because of processes such as decay and reaction that were not simulated. Hydrologic and geologic differences from one location to the next also affect contaminant concentrations—simulations using models with properties representative of aquifers in the Hilo area resulted in lower overall concentrations than models with properties representative of aquifers in the Kona area. Results from this study can be used to assess how contaminants entering a dry well may affect receiving waters in a variety of situations on the Island of Hawai‘i. Better assessment would be obtained by using results from models having the most similar conditions (such as climate, hydraulic properties, regional groundwater gradient) to the dry well in question. The results of this study can help determine which dry wells are likely to have the greatest effect on nearby receiving waters and where more specific data and analyses may be needed.

Hawaii↗

USGS2014

Simulation of the effects of rainfall and groundwater use on historical lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows in central Florida

The urbanization of central Florida has progressed substantially in recent decades, and the total population in Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and Seminole Counties more than quadrupled from 1960 to 2010. The Floridan aquifer system is the primary source of water for potable, industrial, and agricultural purposes in central Florida. Despite increases in groundwater withdrawals to meet the demand of population growth, recharge derived by infiltration of rainfall in the well-drained karst terrain of central Florida is the largest component of the long-term water balance of the Floridan aquifer system. To complement existing physics-based groundwater flow models, artificial neural networks and other data-mining techniques were used to simulate historical lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at sites throughout the area. Historical data were examined using descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, and other exploratory analysis techniques to assess their suitability for more intensive data-mining analysis. Linear trend analyses of meteorological data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at 21 sites indicate 67 percent of sites exhibited upward trends in air temperature over at least a 45-year period of record, whereas 76 percent exhibited downward trends in rainfall over at least a 95-year period of record. Likewise, linear trend analyses of hydrologic response data, which have varied periods of record ranging in length from 10 to 79 years, indicate that water levels in lakes (307 sites) were about evenly split between upward and downward trends, whereas water levels in 69 percent of wells (out of 455 sites) and flows in 68 percent of springs (out of 19 sites) exhibited downward trends. Total groundwater use in the study area increased from about 250 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in 1958 to about 590 Mgal/d in 1980 and remained relatively stable from 1981 to 2008, with a minimum of 559 Mgal/d in 1994 and a maximum of 773 Mgal/d in 2000. The change in groundwater-use trend in the early 1980s and the following period of relatively slight trend is attributable to the concomitant effects of increasing public-supply withdrawals and decreasing use of water by the phosphate industry and agriculture. On the basis of available historical data and exploratory analyses, empirical lake water-level, groundwater-level, and spring-flow models were developed for 22 lakes, 23 wells, and 6 springs. Input time series consisting of various frequencies and frequency-band components of daily rainfall (1942 to 2008) and monthly total groundwater use (1957 to 2008) resulted in hybrid signal-decomposition artificial neural network models. The final models explained much of the variability in observed hydrologic data, with 43 of the 51 sites having coefficients of determination exceeding 0.6, and the models matched the magnitude of the observed data reasonably well, such that models for 32 of the 51 sites had root-mean-square errors less than 10 percent of the measured range of the data. The Central Florida Artificial Neural Network Decision Support System was developed to integrate historical databases and the 102 site-specific artificial neural network models, model controls, and model output into a spreadsheet application with a graphical user interface that allows the user to simulate scenarios of interest. Overall, the data-mining analyses indicate that the Floridan aquifer system in central Florida is a highly conductive, dynamic, open system that is strongly influenced by external forcing. The most important external forcing appears to be rainfall, which explains much of the multiyear cyclic variability and long-term downward trends observed in lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows. For most sites, groundwater use explains less of the observed variability in water levels and flows than rainfall. Relative groundwater-use impacts are greater during droughts, however, and long-term trends in water levels and flows were identified that are consistent with historical groundwater-use patterns. The sensitivity of the hydrologic system to rainfall is expected, owing to the well-drained karst terrain and relatively thin confinement of the Floridan aquifer system in much of central Florida. These characteristics facilitate the relatively rapid transmission of infiltrating water from rainfall to the water table and contribute to downward leakage of water to the Floridan aquifer system. The areally distributed nature of rainfall, as opposed to the site-specific nature of groundwater use, and the generally high transmissivity and low storativity properties of the semiconfined Floridan aquifer system contribute to the prevalence of water-level and flow patterns that mimic rainfall patterns. In general, the data-mining analyses demonstrate that the hydrologic system in central Florida is affected by groundwater use differently during wet periods, when little or no system storage is available (high water levels), compared to dry periods, when there is excess system storage (low water levels). Thus, by driving the overall behavior of the system, rainfall indirectly influences the degree to which groundwater use will effect persistent trends in water levels and flows, with groundwater-use impacts more prevalent during periods of low water levels and spring flows caused by low rainfall and less prevalent during periods of high water levels and spring flows caused by high rainfall. Differences in the magnitudes of rainfall and groundwater use during wet and dry periods also are important determinants of hydrologic response. An important implication of the data-mining analyses is that rainfall variability at subannual to multidecadal timescales must be considered in combination with groundwater use to provide robust system-response predictions that enhance sustainable resource management in an open karst aquifer system. The data-driven approach was limited, however, by the confounding effects of correlation between rainfall and groundwater use, the quality and completeness of the historical databases, and the spatial variations in groundwater use. The data-mining analyses indicate that available historical data when used alone do not contain sufficient information to definitively quantify the related individual effects of rainfall and groundwater use on hydrologic response. The knowledge gained from data-driven modeling and the results from physics-based modeling, when compared and used in combination, can yield a more comprehensive assessment and a more robust understanding of the hydrologic system than either of the approaches used separately.

Florida↗

USGS2014

Base of principal aquifer for parts of the North Platte, South Platte, and Twin Platte Natural Resources Districts, western Nebraska

Water resources in the North and South Platte River valleys of Nebraska, including the valley of Lodgepole Creek, are critical to the social and economic health of the area, and for the recovery of threatened and endangered species in the Platte River Basin. Groundwater and surface water are heavily used resources, and uses are regulated in the study area. Irrigation is the dominant water use and, in most instances, is supplied by both groundwater and surface-water sources. The U.S. Geological Survey and its partners have collaborated to use airborne geophysical surveys for areas of the North and South Platte River valleys including the valley of Lodgepole Creek in western Nebraska. The objective of the surveys was to map the aquifers and underlying bedrock topography of selected areas to help improve the understanding of groundwater–surface-water relations to guide water-management decisions. This project was a cooperative study involving the North Platte Natural Resources District, the South Platte Natural Resources District, the Twin Platte Natural Resources District, the Conservation and Survey Division of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and the Nebraska Environmental Trust. This report presents the interpreted base-of-aquifer surface for part of the area consisting of the North Platte Natural Resources District, the South Platte Natural Resources District, and the Twin Platte Natural Resources District. The interpretations presented herein build on work done by previous researchers from 2008 to 2009 by incorporating additional airborne electromagnetic survey data collected in 2010 and additional test holes from separate, related studies. To make the airborne electromagnetic data useful, numerical inversion was used to convert the measured data into a depth-dependent subsurface resistivity model. An interpretation of the elevation and configuration of the base of aquifer was completed in a geographic information system that provided x, y, and z coordinates. The process of interpretation involved manually picking locations (base-of-aquifer elevations) on the displayed airborne electromagnetic-derived resistivity profile by the project geophysicist, hydrologist, and geologist. These locations, or picks, of the base-of-aquifer elevation (typically the top of the Brule Formation of the White River Group) were then stored in a georeferenced database. The pick was made by comparing the inverted airborne electromagnetic-derived resistivity profile to the lithologic descriptions and borehole geophysical logs from nearby test holes. The database of interpretive picks of the base-of-aquifer elevation was used to create primary input for interpolating the new base-of-aquifer contours. The automatically generated contours were manually adjusted based on the interpreted location of paleovalleys eroded into the base-of-aquifer surface and associated bedrock highs, many of which were unmapped before this study. When contours are overlain by the water-table surface, the saturated thickness of the aquifer can be computed, which allows an estimate of total water in storage. The contours of the base-of-aquifer surface presented in this report may be used as the lower boundary layer in existing and future groundwater-flow models. The integration of geophysical data into the contouring process facilitated a more continuous and spatially comprehensive view of the hydrogeologic framework.

Nebraska↗

USGS2012

Estimation of natural historical flows for the Manitowish River near Manitowish Waters, Wisconsin

The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources is charged with oversight of dam operations throughout Wisconsin and is considering modifications to the operating orders for the Rest Lake Dam in Vilas County, Wisconsin. State law requires that the operation orders be tied to natural low flows at the dam. Because the presence of the dam confounds measurement of natural flows, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, installed streamflow-gaging stations and developed two statistical methods to improve estimates of natural flows at the Rest Lake Dam. Two independent methods were used to estimate daily natural flow for the Manitowish River approximately 1 mile downstream of the Rest Lake Dam. The first method was an adjusted drainage-area ratio method, which used a regression analysis that related measured water yield (flow divided by watershed area) from short-term (2009–11) gaging stations upstream of the Manitowish Chain of Lakes to the water yield from two nearby long-term gaging stations in order to extend the flow record (1991–2011). In this approach, the computed flows into the Chain of Lakes at the upstream gaging stations were multiplied by a coefficient to account for the monthly hydrologic contributions (precipitation, evaporation, groundwater, and runoff) associated with the additional watershed area between the upstream gaging stations and the dam at the outlet of the Chain of Lakes (Rest Lake Dam). The second method used to estimate daily natural flow at the Rest Lake Dam was a water-budget approach, which used lake stage and dam outflow data provided by the dam operator. A water-budget model was constructed and then calibrated with an automated parameter-estimation program by matching simulated flow-duration statistics with measured flow-duration statistics at the upstream gaging stations. After calibration of the water-budget model, the model was used to compute natural flow at the dam from 1973 to 2011. Daily natural flows at the dam, as computed by the adjusted drainage-area ratio method and the water-budget method, were used to compute monthly flow-duration values for the period of historical data available for each method. Monthly flow-durations provide a means for evaluating the frequency and range in flows that have been observed for each month over the course of many years. Both methods described the pattern and timing of measured high-flow and low-flow events at the upstream gaging stations. The adjusted drainage-area ratio method generally had smaller residual errors across the full range of observed flows and had smaller monthly biases than the water-budget method. Although it is not possible to evaluate which method may be more "correct" for estimating monthly natural flows at the dam, comparisons between the results of each method indicate that the adjusted drainage-area ratio method may be susceptible to biases at high flows due to isolated storms outside of the Manitowish River watershed. Conversely, it appears that the water-budget method may be susceptible to biases at low flows because of its sensitivity to the accuracy of reported lake stage and outflows, as well as effects of upstream diversions that could not be fully compensated for with this method. Results from both methods are useful for understanding the natural flow patterns at the dam. Flows for both methods have similar patterns, with high median flows in spring and low median flows in late summer. Similarly, the range from monthly high-flow durations to low-flow durations increases during spring, decreases during summer, and increases again during fall. These seasonal patterns illustrate a challenge with interpreting a single value of natural low flow. That is, a natural low flow computed for September is not representative of a natural low flow in April. Moreover, alteration of natural flows caused by storing water in the Chain of Lakes during spring and releasing it in fall causes a change in the timing of high and low flows compared with natural conditions. That is, the lowest reported dam outflows occurred in spring and highest reported outflows occurred in fall, which is opposite the natural patterns.

Wisconsin↗