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USGS2020

Proposed species extinction target fails to capture the diversity in biodiversity

We believe the 20 species extinction metric is a retrograde proposal, which does not adequately consider the lessons learnt from the 2020 Aichi Biodiversity Targets. Whilst having a single simple overarching target is appealing, we believe a positively-framed target will garner support, rather than one that aims to, at best, limit negative impacts. The Convention on Biological Diversity’s zero draft states that future targets should be clear, consistent and SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant and Timely). Extinction is problematic as a standalone target: it can take decades to demonstrate and therefore cannot be measured over a relevant time-period, and is biased towards terrestrial vertebrates. The proposal is not scalable across nations, nor is it equitable,one of the key aspirations of the zero draft. Many industrialised countries are unlikely to find the targets challenging because their most vulnerable species have largely gone extinct; tropical species-rich countries, where much biodiversity is yet to be catalogued, will find the targets demanding and unachievable in the short- or medium-term. Despite the authors’ statement to the contrary, species extinction is not necessarily relevant to other aspects of biodiversity, such as ecosystems or genetic diversity. A species may be reduced to a small fraction of its former extent without going extinct. However, its ecosystem will be altered, and its contribution to ecosystem functions and the socio-economic benefits it provided will be lost. The focus on extinction is not novel and has not been particularly successful to date, as demonstrated by the decline of emblematic species such as rhinoceroses. Alternatively, composite indicators can be used to capture biodiversity’s three fundamental components (ecosystems, species and genetic diversity). In conclusion, we cannot support a target that fails to represent the diversity in biodiversity and, in the authors’ words, could be met despite “wholesale and damaging changes to life on Earth.”

Science↗

USGS2025

The abiotic background as a central component of a Sample Safety Assessment Protocol for Mars Sample Return

Martian rock and regolith samples are being collected and cached by NASA’s Perseverance rover, with the goal of returning them to Earth as soon as the mid-2030s. Upon return, samples would be housed in a sample receiving facility under biological containment to prevent exposing Earth’s biosphere to any potential biohazards that might be present. Samples could be released from high containment for scientific investigations if they are found to be safe or are sterilized. The Sample Safety Assessment Protocol Tiger Team (SSAP-TT) was convened by the Sample Receiving Project between August 2023 and August 2024 and tasked with the development of a Sample Safety Assessment Protocol (SSAP). The result of this work is a proposed three-step protocol, supported by Bayesian statistical hypothesis testing, to assess the risk as to whether returned samples contain modern martian biology that could represent a biohazard. The proposed protocol outlines procedures to determine whether the samples could be safely released from high containment without sterilization or require a “hold and review” step. This article presents the central concept of the SSAP approach—comparing returned samples to the abiotic baseline. Organic molecules, which exist throughout the solar system, can have either biotic or abiotic origins. However, biotically produced organic molecules exhibit distinct complexity, distribution, and abundance characteristics that differentiate them from those formed through abiotic chemistry. The proposed protocol would examine the organic inventory of returned samples by using multiple techniques, including morphological and spectral assessments, to determine whether any signals exceed the abiotic baseline; that is, whether the organic molecular inventory could be explained solely by abiotic chemical synthesis. This approach provides a rigorous, yet feasible, safety assessment protocol by using modern techniques while minimizing sample consumption. We also identify key areas for future research and development, which include detection limits and further characterization of the martian abiotic background.

Astrobiology↗

USGS2010

River solute fluxes reflecting active hydrothermal chemical weathering of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcanic Field, USA

In the past few decades numerous studies have quantified the load of dissolved solids in large rivers to determine chemical weathering rates in orogenic belts and volcanic areas, mainly motivated by the notion that over timescales greater than ~100kyr, silicate hydrolysis may be the dominant sink for atmospheric CO2, thus creating a feedback between climate and weathering. Here, we report the results of a detailed study during water year 2007 (October 1, 2006 to September 30, 2007) in the major rivers of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcanic Field (YPVF) which hosts Earth's largest "restless" caldera and over 10,000 thermal features. The chemical compositions of rivers that drain thermal areas in the YPVF differ significantly from the compositions of rivers that drain non-thermal areas. There are large seasonal variations in river chemistry and solute flux, which increases with increasing water discharge. The river chemistry and discharge data collected periodically over an entire year allow us to constrain the annual solute fluxes and to distinguish between low-temperature weathering and hydrothermal flux components. The TDS flux from Yellowstone Caldera in water year 2007 was 93t/km2/year. Extensive magma degassing and hydrothermal interaction with rocks accounts for at least 82% of this TDS flux, 83% of the cation flux and 72% of the HCO3- flux. The low-temperature chemical weathering rate (17t/km2/year), calculated on the assumption that all the Cl- is of thermal origin, could include a component from low-temperature hydrolysis reactions induced by CO2 ascending from depth rather than by atmospheric CO2. Although this uncertainty remains, the calculated low-temperature weathering rate of the young rhyolitic rocks in the Yellowstone Caldera is comparable to the world average of large watersheds that drain also more soluble carbonates and evaporates but is slightly lower than calculated rates in other, less-silicic volcanic regions. Long-term average fluxes at Yellowstone are likely ~20% higher than those in the abnormally dry water year 2007, but the protocol used in this study can be easily adaptable to track future changes in low-temperature weathering and hydrothermal flux components, which could provide better monitoring of magmatic unrest. ?? 2010.

Chemical Geology↗

USGS2008

Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on a simplified viscoelastic cycle model of fault interactions

We construct a viscoelastic cycle model of plate boundary deformation that includes the effect of time-dependent interseismic strain accumulation, coseismic strain release, and viscoelastic relaxation of the substrate beneath the seismogenic crust. For a given fault system, time-averaged stress changes at any point (not on a fault) are constrained to zero; that is, kinematic consistency is enforced for the fault system. The dates of last rupture, mean recurrence times, and the slip distributions of the (assumed) repeating ruptures are key inputs into the viscoelastic cycle model. This simple formulation allows construction of stress evolution at all points in the plate boundary zone for purposes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Stress evolution is combined with a Coulomb failure stress threshold at representative points on the fault segments to estimate the times of their respective future ruptures. In our PSHA we consider uncertainties in a four-dimensional parameter space: the rupture peridocities, slip distributions, time of last earthquake (for prehistoric ruptures) and Coulomb failure stress thresholds. We apply this methodology to the San Francisco Bay region using a recently determined fault chronology of area faults. Assuming single-segment rupture scenarios, we find that fature rupture probabilities of area faults in the coming decades are the highest for the southern Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and northern Calaveras faults. This conclusion is qualitatively similar to that of Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, but the probabilities derived here are significantly higher. Given that fault rupture probabilities are highly model-dependent, no single model should be used to assess to time-dependent rupture probabilities. We suggest that several models, including the present one, be used in a comprehensive PSHA methodology, as was done by Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2015

Multiscale geophysical imaging of the critical zone

Details of Earth's shallow subsurface—a key component of the critical zone (CZ)—are largely obscured because making direct observations with sufficient density to capture natural characteristic spatial variability in physical properties is difficult. Yet this inaccessible region of the CZ is fundamental to processes that support ecosystems, society, and the environment. Geophysical methods provide a means for remotely examining CZ form and function over length scales that span centimeters to kilometers. Here we present a review highlighting the application of geophysical methods to CZ science research questions. In particular, we consider the application of geophysical methods to map the geometry of structural features such as regolith thickness, lithological boundaries, permafrost extent, snow thickness, or shallow root zones. Combined with knowledge of structure, we discuss how geophysical observations are used to understand CZ processes. Fluxes between snow, surface water, and groundwater affect weathering, groundwater resources, and chemical and nutrient exports to rivers. The exchange of gas between soil and the atmosphere have been studied using geophysical methods in wetland areas. Indirect geophysical methods are a natural and necessary complement to direct observations obtained by drilling or field mapping. Direct measurements should be used to calibrate geophysical estimates, which can then be used to extrapolate interpretations over larger areas or to monitor changing processes over time. Advances in geophysical instrumentation and computational approaches for integrating different types of data have great potential to fill gaps in our understanding of the shallow subsurface portion of the CZ and should be integrated where possible in future CZ research.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

USGS2010

Extraction of in situ cosmogenic 14C from olivine

Chemical pretreatment and extraction techniques have been developed previously to extract in situ cosmogenic radiocarbon (in situ 14C) from quartz and carbonate. These minerals can be found in most environments on Earth, but are usually absent from mafic terrains. To fill this gap, we conducted numerous experiments aimed at extracting in situ 14C from olivine ((Fe,Mg)2SiO4). We were able to extract a stable and reproducible in situ 14C component from olivine using stepped heating and a lithium metaborate (LiBO2) flux, following treatment with dilute HNO3 over a variety of experimental conditions. However, measured concentrations for samples from the Tabernacle Hill basalt flow (17.3 ?? 0.3 ka4) in central Utah and the McCarty's basalt flow (3.0 ?? 0.2 ka) in western New Mexico were significantly lower than expected based on exposure of olivine in our samples to cosmic rays at each site. The source of the discrepancy is not clear. We speculate that in situ 14C atoms may not have been released from Mg-rich crystal lattices (the olivine composition at both sites was ~Fo65Fa35). Alternatively, a portion of the 14C atoms released from the olivine grains may have become trapped in synthetic spinel-like minerals that were created in the olivine-flux mixture during the extraction process, or were simply retained in the mixture itself. Regardless, the magnitude of the discrepancy appears to be inversely proportional to the Fe/(Fe+Mg) ratio of the olivine separates. If we apply a simple correction factor based on the chemical composition of the separates, then corrected in situ 14C concentrations are similar to theoretical values at both sites. At this time, we do not know if this agreement is fortuitous or real. Future research should include measurement of in situ 14C concentrations in olivine from known-age basalt flows with different chemical compositions (i.e. more Fe-rich) to determine if this correction is robust for all olivine-bearing rocks. ?? 2010 by the Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona.

Radiocarbon↗

USGS2015

Human activities and climate variability drive fast-paced change across the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2–5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine–coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2015

Alteration, slope-classified alteration, and potential lahar inundation maps of volcanoes for the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Volcano Archive

This study identifies areas prone to lahars from hydrothermally altered volcanic edifices on a global scale, using visible and near infrared (VNIR) and short wavelength infrared (SWIR) reflectance data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and digital elevation data from the ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) dataset. This is the first study to create a global database of hydrothermally altered volcanoes showing quantitatively compiled alteration maps and potentially affected drainages, as well as drainage-specific maps illustrating modeled lahars and their potential inundation zones. We (1) identified and prioritized 720 volcanoes based on population density surrounding the volcanoes using the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program database (GVP) and LandScan™ digital population dataset; (2) validated ASTER hydrothermal alteration mapping techniques using Airborne Visible and Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and ASTER data for Mount Shasta, California, and Pico de Orizaba (Citlaltépetl), Mexico; (3) mapped and slope-classified hydrothermal alteration using ASTER VNIR-SWIR reflectance data on 100 of the most densely populated volcanoes; (4) delineated drainages using ASTER GDEM data that show potential flow paths of possible lahars for the 100 mapped volcanoes; (5) produced potential alteration-related lahar inundation maps using the LAHARZ GIS code for Iztaccíhuatl, Mexico, and Mount Hood and Mount Shasta in the United States that illustrate areas likely to be affected based on DEM-derived volume estimates of hydrothermally altered rocks and the ~2x uncertainty factor inherent within a statistically-based lahar model; and (6) saved all image and vector data for 3D and 2D display in Google Earth ™ , ArcGIS ® and other graphics display programs. In addition, these data are available from the ASTER Volcano Archive (AVA) for distribution (available at http://ava.jpl.nasa.gov/recent_alteration_zones.php ). Using the GVP and the LandScan™ digital population dataset, 350 of the most densely populated stratovolcanoes were assessed for study. Of the 350 volcanoes, 250 volcanoes were not mapped due to excessive snow, ice, and (or) vegetation. Results from mapping the remaining 100 stratovolcanoes show that 87 contain slopes with hydrothermal alteration, and 49 have hydrothermally altered rocks on steep slopes situated above areas with populations >100 people per km 2 . Of these, 17 stratovolcanoes exhibit laterally extensive hydrothermal alteration on slopes >35° and cover an area >0.25 km 2 , which may pose a significant possibility of generating debris flows. This study was undertaken during 2012–2013 in cooperation with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Since completion of this study, a new lahar modeling program (LAHAR_pz) has been released, which may produce slightly different modeling results from the LAHARZ model used in this study. The maps and data from this study should not be used in place of existing volcano hazard maps published by local authorities. For volcanoes without hazard maps and (or) published lahar-related hazard studies, this work will provide a starting point from which more accurate hazard maps can be produced. This is the first dataset to provide digital maps of altered volcanoes and adjacent watersheds that can be used for assessing volcanic hazards, hydrothermal alteration, and other volcanic processes in future studies.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Landsat TM and ETM+ thermal band calibration

Landsat-5 has been imaging the Earth since March 1984, and Landsat-7 was added to the series of Landsat instruments in April 1999. The Landsat Project Science Office and the Landsat-7 Image Assessment System have been monitoring the on-board calibration of Landsat-7 since launch. Additionally, two separate university teams have been evaluating the on-board thermal calibration of Landsat-7 through ground-based measurements since launch. Although not monitored as closely over its lifetime, a new effort is currently being made to validate the calibration of Landsat-5. Two university teams are beginning to collect ground truth under Landsat-5, along with using other vicarious calibration methods to go back into the archive to validate the history of the calibration of Landsat-5. This paper considers the calibration efforts for the thermal band, band 6, of both the Landsat-5 and Landsat-7 instruments. Though stable since launch, Landsat-7 had an initial calibration error of about 3 K, and changes were made to correct for this beginning 1 October 2000 for data processed with the National Landsat Archive Production System (NLAPS) and beginning 20 December 2000 for data processed with the Landsat Product Generation System (LPGS). Recent results from Landsat-5 vicarious calibration efforts show an offset of 0.7 K over the lifetime of the instrument. This suggests that historical calibration efforts may have been detecting errors in processing systems rather than changes in the instrument. A correction to the Landsat-5 processing has not yet been implemented but will be in the near future.

Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing↗

USGS2025

The progression of basaltic–rhyolitic melt storage at Yellowstone Caldera

Yellowstone Caldera is one of the largest volcanic systems on Earth, hosting three major caldera-forming eruptions in the past two million years, interspersed with periods of less explosive, smaller-volume eruptions 1 . Caldera-forming eruptions at Yellowstone are sourced by rhyolitic melts stored within the mid- to upper crust. Seismic tomography studies have suggested that a broad region of rhyolitic melt extends beneath Yellowstone Caldera, with an estimated melt volume that is one to four times greater than the eruptive volume of the largest past caldera-forming eruption, and an estimated melt fraction of 6–28 per cent 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 . Seismic velocity is strongly influenced by temperature, pressure and melt; however, magnetotelluric data are primarily sensitive to the presence of melt, making these data ideal for constraining volcanic systems. Here we utilize magnetotelluric data to model the resistivity structure of Yellowstone Caldera’s crustal magma reservoir and constrain the region’s potential for producing major volcanic eruptions. We find that rhyolitic melts are stored in segregated regions beneath the caldera with low melt fractions, indicating that the reservoirs are not eruptible. Typically, these regions have melt volumes equivalent to small-volume post-caldera Yellowstone eruptions. The largest region of rhyolitic melt storage, concentrated beneath northeast Yellowstone Caldera, has a storage volume similar to the eruptive volume of Yellowstone’s smallest caldera-forming eruption. We identify regions of basalt migrating from the lower crust, merging with and supplying heat to the northeast region of rhyolitic melt storage. On the basis of our analysis, we suggest that the locus of future rhyolitic volcanism has shifted to northeast Yellowstone Caldera.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Landsat surface product validation instrumentation: The BigMAC exercise

Users of Earth remotely sensed optical imagery are increasingly demanding a surface reflectance or surface temperature product instead of the top-of-atmosphere products that have been produced historically. Validating the accuracy of surface products remains a difficult task since it involves assessment across a range of atmospheric profiles, as well as many different land surface types. Thus, standard approaches from the satellite calibration community do not apply and new technologies need to be developed. The Big Multi-Agency Campaign (BigMAC) was developed to assess current technologies that might be used for validation of surface products derived from satellite imagery, with emphasis on Landsat. Conducted in August, 2021, in Brookings, SD, USA, a variety of measurement technologies were fielded and assessed for accuracy, precision, and deployability. Each technology exhibited its strengths and weaknesses. Handheld spectroradiometers are capable of surface reflectance measurements with accuracies in the 0.01 - 0.02 absolute reflectance units, but are expensive to deploy. Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS)-based radiometers have the potential of making measurements with similar accuracy, but are also difficult to deploy. Mirror-based empirical line methods showed improving accuracy potential, but deployment also remains an issue. However, there are inexpensive radiometers designed for long-term autonomous use that exhibited good accuracy and precision, as well as being easy to deploy. Thermal measurement technologies showed accuracy potential in the 1 - 2K range, and some easily deployable instruments are available. Results from BigMAC indicate there are technologies available today to begin making operational surface reflectance/temperature measurements and strong potential for improvements in the future.

Sensors↗

USGS2012

On the causes of mid-Pliocene warmth and polar amplification

The mid-Pliocene (~ 3 to 3.3 Ma ago), is a period of sustained global warmth in comparison to the late Quaternary (0 to ~ 1 Ma ago), and has potential to inform predictions of long-term future climate change. However, given that several processes potentially contributed, relatively little is understood about the reasons for the observed warmth, or the associated polar amplification. Here, using a modelling approach and a novel factorisation method, we assess the relative contributions to mid-Pliocene warmth from: elevated CO 2 , lowered orography, and vegetation and ice sheet changes. The results show that on a global scale, the largest contributor to mid-Pliocene warmth is elevated CO 2 . However, in terms of polar amplification, changes to ice sheets contribute significantly in the Southern Hemisphere, and orographic changes contribute significantly in the Northern Hemisphere. We also carry out an energy balance analysis which indicates that that on a global scale, surface albedo and atmospheric emmissivity changes dominate over cloud changes. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to uncertainties in the prescribed CO 2 and orographic changes, to derive uncertainty ranges for the various contributing processes.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2021

The application of ensemble wave forcing to quantify uncertainty of shoreline change predictions

Reliable predictions and accompanying uncertainty estimates of coastal evolution on decadal to centennial time scales are increasingly sought. So far, most coastal change projections rely on a single, deterministic realization of the unknown future wave climate, often derived from a global climate model. Yet, deterministic projections do not account for the stochastic nature of future wave conditions across a variety of temporal scales (e.g., daily, weekly, seasonally, and interannually). Here, we present an ensemble Kalman filter shoreline change model to predict coastal erosion and uncertainty due to waves at a variety of time scales. We compare shoreline change projections, simulated with and without ensemble wave forcing conditions by applying ensemble wave time series produced by a computationally efficient statistical downscaling method. We demonstrate a sizable (site-dependent) increase in model uncertainty compared with the unrealistic case of model projections based on a single, deterministic realization (e.g., a single time series) of the wave forcing. We support model-derived uncertainty estimates with a novel mathematical analysis of ensembles of idealized process models. Here, the developed ensemble modeling approach is applied to a well-monitored beach in Tairua, New Zealand. However, the model and uncertainty quantification techniques derived here are generally applicable to a variety of coastal settings around the world.

JGR Earth Surface↗

USGS2007

Sorted bed forms as self-organized patterns: 2. complex forcing scenarios

We employ a numerical model to study the development of sorted bed forms under a variety of hydrodynamic and sedimentary conditions. Results indicate that increased variability in wave height decreases the growth rate of the features and can potentially give rise to complicated, a priori unpredictable, behavior. This happens because the system responds to a change in wave characteristics by attempting to self-organize into a patterned seabed of different geometry and spacing. The new wavelength might not have enough time to emerge before a new change in wave characteristics occurs, leading to less regular seabed configurations. The new seabed configuration is also highly dependent on the preexisting morphology, which further limits the possibility of predicting future behavior. For the same reasons, variability in the mean current magnitude and direction slows down the growth of features and causes patterns to develop that differ from classical sorted bed forms. Spatial variability in grain size distribution and different types of net sediment aggradation/degradation can also result in the development of sorted bed forms characterized by a less regular shape. Numerical simulations qualitatively agree with observed geometry (spacing and height) of sorted bed forms. Also in agreement with observations is that at shallower depths, sorted bed forms are more likely to be affected by changes in the forcing conditions, which might also explain why, in shallow waters, sorted bed forms are described as ephemeral features. Finally, simulations indicate that the different sorted bed form shapes and patterns observed in the field might not necessarily be related to diverse physical mechanisms. Instead, variations in sorted bed form characteristics may result from variations in local hydrodynamic and/or sedimentary conditions.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2004

Geodetic and seismic constraints on some seismogenic zone processes in Costa Rica

New seismic and geodetic data from Costa Rica provide insight into seismogenic zone processes in Central America, where the Cocos and Caribbean plates converge. Seismic data are from combined land and ocean bottom deployments in the Nicoya peninsula in northern Costa Rica and near the Osa peninsula in southern Costa Rica. In Nicoya, inversion of GPS data suggests two locked patches centered at 14 ± 2 and 39 ± 6 km depth. Interplate microseismicity is concentrated in the more freely slipping intermediate zone, suggesting that small interseismic earthquakes may not accurately outline the updip limit of the seismogenic zone, the rupture zone for future large earthquakes, at least over the short (∼1 year) observation period. We also estimate northwest motion of a coastal “sliver block” at 8 ± 3 mm/yr, probably related to oblique convergence. In the Osa region to the south, convergence is orthogonal to the trench. Cocos-Caribbean relative motion is partitioned here, with ∼8 cm/yr on the Cocos-Panama block boundary (including a component of permanent shortening across the Fila Costeña fold and thrust belt) and ∼1 cm/yr on the Panama block–Caribbean boundary. The GPS data suggest that the Cocos plate–Panama block boundary is completely locked from ∼10–50 km depth. This large locked zone, as well as associated forearc and back-arc deformation, may be related to subduction of the shallow Cocos Ridge and/or younger lithosphere compared to Nicoya, with consequent higher coupling and compressive stress in the direction of plate convergence.

Nicoya Peninsula, Osa Peninsula↗

USGS2024

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PlioMIP3) – Science plan and experimental design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) was initiated in 2008. Over two phases PlioMIP has helped co-ordinate the experimental design and publication strategy of the community, which has included an increasing number of climate models and modelling groups from around the world. It has engaged with palaeoenvironmental scientists to foster new data synthesis supporting the construction of new model boundary conditions, as well as to facilitate new data-model comparisons. The work has advanced our understanding of Pliocene climates and environments, enhanced our knowledge regarding the ability of complex climate and Earth System models to accurately simulate climate change, and helped to refine our estimates of how sensitive the climate system is to forcing conditions. In this community protocol paper, we outline the scientific plan for PlioMIP Phase 3 (PlioMIP3). This plan provides the required guidance to participating modelling groups from around the world to successfully set up and perform PlioMIP3 climate model experiments. The project is open to new participants from the scientific community (both from the climate modelling and geosciences communities). In PlioMIP3, we retain the PlioMIP2 Core experiments ( Eoi 400 , E 280 ) and extend the Core requirements to include either an experiment focussed on the Early Pliocene or an alternative Late Pliocene simulation (or both). These additions (a) allow a comparison of Early and Late Pliocene warm intervals and help build research connections and synergy with the MioMIP (Miocene Model Intercomparison Project - also known as DeepMIP-Miocene) and PlioMioVAR projects (Pliocene-Miocene Variability Working Group), and (b) create an alternative time slice simulation for 3.205 Ma (MIS KM5c) through removal of some of the largest palaeogeographic differences introduced between PlioMIP1 and 2 resulting in minimal land-sea mask variations from the modern. In addition, we present ten optional experiments designed to enhance our assessment of climate sensitivity and to explore the uncertainty in greenhouse gas-related forcing. For the first time, we introduce orbital sensitivity experiments into the science plan, as well as simulations incorporating dynamic vegetation-climate feedbacks and an experiment designed to examine the potential significance of East Antarctic Ice Sheet boundary condition uncertainty. These changes enhance palaeo-to-future scientific connections and enable an exploration of the significance of palaeogeographic uncertainties on climate simulations.

Global and Planeatary Change↗

USGS2011

Neotectonic inversion of the Hindu Kush-Pamir mountain region

The Hindu Kush-Pamir region of southern Asia is one of Earth's most rapidly deforming regions and it is poorly understood. This study develops a kinematic model based on active faulting in this part of the Trans-Himalayan orogenic belt. Previous studies have described north-verging thrust faults and some strike-slip faults, reflected in the northward-convex geomorphologic and structural grain of the Pamir Mountains. However, this structural analysis suggests that contemporary tectonics are changing the style of deformation from north-verging thrusts formed during the initial contraction of the Himalayan orogeny to south-verging thrusts and a series of northwest-trending, dextral strike-slip faults in the modern transpressional regime. These northwest-trending fault zones are linked to the major right-lateral Karakoram fault, located to the east, as synthetic, conjugate shears that form a right-stepping en echelon pattern. Northwest-trending lineaments with dextral displacements extend continuously westward across the Hindu Kush-Pamir region indicating a pattern of systematic shearing of multiple blocks to the northwest as the deformation effects from Indian plate collision expands to the north-northwest. Locally, east-northeast- and northwest-trending faults display sinistral and dextral displacement, respectively, yielding conjugate shear pairs developed in a northwest-southeast compressional stress field. Geodetic measurements and focal mechanisms from historical seismicity support these surficial, tectono-morphic observations. The conjugate shear pairs may be structurally linked subsidiary faults and co-seismically slip during single large magnitude (> M7) earthquakes that occur on major south-verging thrust faults. This kinematic model provides a potential context for prehistoric, historic, and future patterns of faulting and earthquakes.

Himalayan Geology↗

USGS2011

Global multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED2010)

In 1996, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a global topographic elevation model designated as GTOPO30 at a horizontal resolution of 30 arc-seconds for the entire Earth. Because no single source of topographic information covered the entire land surface, GTOPO30 was derived from eight raster and vector sources that included a substantial amount of U.S. Defense Mapping Agency data. The quality of the elevation data in GTOPO30 varies widely; there are no spatially-referenced metadata, and the major topographic features such as ridgelines and valleys are not well represented. Despite its coarse resolution and limited attributes, GTOPO30 has been widely used for a variety of hydrological, climatological, and geomorphological applications as well as military applications, where a regional, continental, or global scale topographic model is required. These applications have ranged from delineating drainage networks and watersheds to using digital elevation data for the extraction of topographic structure and three-dimensional (3D) visualization exercises (Jenson and Domingue, 1988; Verdin and Greenlee, 1996; Lehner and others, 2008). Many of the fundamental geophysical processes active at the Earth's surface are controlled or strongly influenced by topography, thus the critical need for high-quality terrain data (Gesch, 1994). U.S. Department of Defense requirements for mission planning, geographic registration of remotely sensed imagery, terrain visualization, and map production are similarly dependent on global topographic data. Since the time GTOPO30 was completed, the availability of higher-quality elevation data over large geographic areas has improved markedly. New data sources include global Digital Terrain Elevation Data (DTEDRegistered) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Canadian elevation data, and data from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat). Given the widespread use of GTOPO30 and the equivalent 30-arc-second DTEDRegistered level 0, the USGS and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) have collaborated to produce an enhanced replacement for GTOPO30, the Global Land One-km Base Elevation (GLOBE) model and other comparable 30-arc-second-resolution global models, using the best available data. The new model is called the Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010, or GMTED2010 for short. This suite of products at three different resolutions (approximately 1,000, 500, and 250 meters) is designed to support many applications directly by providing users with generic products (for example, maximum, minimum, and median elevations) that have been derived directly from the raw input data that would not be available to the general user or would be very costly and time-consuming to produce for individual applications. The source of all the elevation data is captured in metadata for reference purposes. It is also hoped that as better data become available in the future, the GMTED2010 model will be updated.

Open-File Report↗