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USGS2007

Magnetotelluric Data, Mid Valley, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

Introduction The United States Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) at their Nevada Site Office (NSO) are addressing ground-water contamination resulting from historical underground nuclear testing through the Environmental Management (EM) program and, in particular, the Underground Test Area (UGTA) project. One issue of concern is the nature of the somewhat poorly constrained pre-Tertiary geology and its effects on ground-water flow. Ground-water modelers would like to know more about the hydrostratigraphy and geologic structure to support a hydrostratigraphic framework model that is under development for the Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain Corrective Action Unit (CAU). During 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the DOE and NNSA-NSO, collected and processed data at the Nevada Test Site in and near Yucca Flat (YF) to help define the character, thickness, and lateral extent of the pre-Tertiary confining units. We collected 51 magnetotelluric (MT) and audio-magnetotelluric (AMT), stations for that research. In early 2005 we extended that research with 26 additional MT data stations, located on and near Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain (RM-SM). The new stations extended the area of the hydrogeologic study previously conducted in Yucca Flat. This work was done to help refine what is known about the character, thickness, and lateral extent of pre-Tertiary confining units. In particular, a major goal was to define the upper clastic confining unit (UCCU). The UCCU is comprised of late Devonian to Mississippian siliciclastic rocks assigned to the Eleana Formation and Chainman Shale. The UCCU underlies the Yucca Flat area and extends westward towards Shoshone Mountain, southward to Buckboard Mesa, and northward to Rainier Mesa. Late in 2005 we collected another 14 MT stations in Mid Valley and in northern Yucca Flat basin. That work was done to better determine the extent and thickness of the UCCU near the southeastern RM-SM CAU boundary with the southwestern YF CAU, and also in the northern YF CAU. The purpose of this report is to release the MT data at those 14 stations. No interpretation of the data is included here.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

Monitoring storm tide and flooding from Hurricane Isaac along the Gulf Coast of the United States, August 2012

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of water-level and barometric pressure sensors at 127 locations along the gulf coast from Alabama to Louisiana to record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of hurricane storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Isaac. This deployment was undertaken as part of a coordinated federal emergency response as outlined by the Stafford Act under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Storm tide, as defined by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2008), is the water-level rise generated by a combination of storm surge and astronomical tide during a coastal storm. Hurricane Isaac initially made landfall on the coast of Louisiana in Plaquemines Parish on August 28, 2012, as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (National Weather Service, 1974) and then stalled over southern Louisiana for several days, causing prolonged storm-tide impacts. A total of 188 water-level and wave-height sensors were deployed at 127 locations during August 27–28 prior to landfall. More than 90 percent of the sensors and all high-water marks (HWMs) were recovered and surveyed to North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88) within 7 days of the Isaac landfall. Only a handful of sensors in the Plaquemines Parish area of Louisiana could not be retrieved until weeks later due to prolonged flooding in the area. Data collected from this event can be used to evaluate the performance of storm-tide models for maximum and incremental water level and flood extent and the site-specific effects of storm tide on natural and anthropogenic features of the environment.

Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi↗

USGS1998

Streambed stability and scour potential at selected bridge sites in Michigan

Contraction scour in the main stream channel at a bridge and local scour near piers and abutments can result in bridge failure. Estimates of contraction-scour and local-scour potentials associated with the 100-year flood were computed for 13 bridge sites in Michigan by use of semi-theoretical equations and procedures recommended by the Federal Highway Administration. These potentials were compared with measures of Streambed stability obtained by use of data from 773 historical streamflow measurements, documenting 20,741 individual Streambed soundings between 1959 and 1995. Analysis of these data indicate small, but statistically significant, monotonic trends in Streambed elevation at 10 sites. No consistent patterns in relations between changes in Streambed elevations and streamflow, flow velocity, or flow depth were evident. Also, estimates of contraction-scour potential were not correlated with measures of Streambed stability, and no differences were detected between measures of Streambed stability in the main channel and stability adjacent to piers. Despite the inconsistencies between measures of Streambed stability and scour potential, data from a single, large flood (greater than a 100-year event) provided field evidence that the relation between scour and streamflow is highly nonlinear. This nonlinearity and the limited availability of measurements of extreme flood events may have reduced the utility of the empirical measures for confirming the nonlinear scour-potential equations and procedures. Results of field surveys using ground-penetrating radar and tuned transducers showed limited ability to aid interpretation of historical scour conditions at four bridge sites. Additional research is needed to confirm the applicability of scour-potential equations for hydrogeologic conditions in Michigan.

Michigan↗

USGS1996

Chlordane, DDT, PCB's, and other selected organic compounds in Asiatic clams and yellow bullhead in the Potomac River Basin, 1992

Chlordane, DDT (dichlor-diphenyl-trichloroethane), and PCB's (polychlorinated biphenyls) were the most widespread organic contaminants detected during a 1992 survey of aquatic biological tissues in the Potomac River Basin. On the basis of existing U.S. Food and Drug Administration criteria, no new threats to human health were discovered, although chlordane concentrations may pose a threat to fish-eating wildlife. Chlordane exceeded the National Academy of Science and National Academy of Engineering recommended maximum concentration for the protection of fish-eating wildlife at two sites. The survey, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program, sampled Asiatic clams (Corbicula fluminea) and yellow bullhead (Ameiurus natalis) at 16 sites to determine the occurrence and distribution of 29 hydrophobic organic compounds. Thirteen of these organic compounds were detected in the survey. Sites with the greatest number of compounds detected include the Potomac River near Alexandria, Va., with 6 compounds detected in Asiatic clam tissue, and Accotink Creek near Annandale, Va., with 11 compounds in yellow bullhead tissue. Chlordane was detected at six sites, with maximum concentrations of 31.1 ?g/kg (micrograms per kilograms) in Asiatic clam tissue and 127 ?g/kg in yellow bullhead whole-fish tissue. DDT was detected at five sites, with maximum concentrations of 12.9 ?g/kg in Asiatic clam tissue and 7.6 ?g/kg in yellow bullhead whole-fish tissue. PCB's were detected at nine sites, with maximum concentrations of 162 ?g/kg in Asiatic clam tissue and 146 mg/ kg in yellow bullhead whole-fish tissue.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

Monitoring storm tide and flooding from Hurricane Matthew along the Atlantic coast of the United States, October 2016

Introduction Hurricane Matthew moved adjacent to the coasts of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The hurricane made landfall once near McClellanville, South Carolina, on October 8, 2016, as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of storm-tide sensors at 284 sites along the Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina to record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of hurricane storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Matthew. Storm tide, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is the water-level rise generated by a combination of storm surge and astronomical tide during a coastal storm. The deployment for Hurricane Matthew was the largest deployment of storm-tide sensors in USGS history and was completed as part of a coordinated Federal emergency response as outlined by the Stafford Act (Public Law 92–288, 42 U.S.C. 5121–5207) under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. In total, 543 high-water marks (HWMs) also were collected after Hurricane Matthew, and this was the second largest HWM recovery effort in USGS history after Hurricane Sandy in 2012. During the hurricane, real-time water-level data collected at temporary rapid deployment gages (RDGs) and long-term USGS streamgage stations were relayed immediately for display on the USGS Flood Event Viewer ( https://stn.wim.usgs.gov/FEV/#MatthewOctober2016 ). These data provided emergency managers and responders with critical information for tracking flood-effected areas and directing assistance to effected communities. Data collected from this hurricane can be used to calibrate and evaluate the performance of storm-tide models for maximum and incremental water level and flood extent, and the site-specific effects of storm tide on natural and anthropogenic features of the environment.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina↗

USGS2015

Seabed maps showing topography, ruggedness, backscatter intensity, sediment mobility, and the distribution of geologic substrates in Quadrangle 6 of the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary Region offshore of Boston, Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Marine Sanctuary Program, has conducted seabed mapping and related research in the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS) region since 1993. The area is approximately 3,700 square kilometers (km 2 ) and is subdivided into 18 quadrangles. Seven maps, at a scale of 1:25,000, of quadrangle 6 (211 km 2 ) depict seabed topography, backscatter, ruggedness, geology, substrate mobility, mud content, and areas dominated by fine-grained or coarse-grained sand. Interpretations of bathymetric and seabed backscatter imagery, photographs, video, and grain-size analyses were used to create the geology-based maps. In all, data from 420 stations were analyzed, including sediment samples from 325 locations. The seabed geology map shows the distribution of 10 substrate types ranging from boulder ridges to immobile, muddy sand to mobile, rippled sand. Mapped substrate types are defined on the basis of sediment grain-size composition, surface morphology, sediment layering, the mobility or immobility of substrate surfaces, and water depth range. This map series is intended to portray the major geological elements (substrates, topographic features, processes) of environments within quadrangle 6. Additionally, these maps will be the basis for the study of the ecological requirements of invertebrate and vertebrate species that utilize these substrates and guide seabed management in the region.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2007

New Jersey Tide Telemetry System

Each summer the population of the barrier-island communities of New Jersey increases by tens of thousands. When a coastal storm threatens these communities, the limited number of bridges and causeways that connect the islands with the mainland become overcrowded, making evacuations from the barrier islands to the mainland difficult. Timely evacuation depends on well-defined emergency evacuation plans used in conjunction with accurate flood forecasting and up to the minute (real-time) tide-level information. The 'Great Nor'easter' storm that struck the coastal areas of New Jersey on December 11, 1992, caused about $270 million in insured damages to public and private property (Dorr and others, 1995). Most of the damage was due to tidal flooding and storm surge, which were especially severe along the back bay areas. Comprehensive and reliable tide-level and meteorological data for the back bays was needed to make accurate flood forecasts. Collection of tidal data for the ocean and large bays was adequately covered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Ocean Service (NOAA's NOS), but in New Jersey little to no data are available for the back-bay areas. The back bays behave quite differently than the ocean as a result of the complex interaction between the winds and the geometry of the inlets and bays. A slow moving Nor'easter can keep tide levels in back bays several feet higher than the ocean tide by not allowing tides to recede, resulting in flooding of bridges and causeways that link the barrier islands to the mainland. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Transportation (NJDOT), designed and installed the New Jersey Tide Telemetry System (NJTTS) with assistance from NOAA's NOS in 1997. This system is part of a statewide network of tide gages, weather stations, and stream gages that collect data in real time. The NJTTS supplies comprehensive, reliable real-time tide-level and meteorological data for flood-prone areas along the New Jersey shore and back bays. These data are transmitted to computer base stations located at offices of the National Weather Service, New Jersey State Police (NJSP), NJDOT, county emergency management agencies, other critical decision-making centers, and the World Wide Web (WWW). This fact sheet describes the NJTTS and identifies its benefits.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2007

Landsat Data Continuity Mission

The Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) is a partnership between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to place the next Landsat satellite in orbit by late 2012. The Landsat era that began in 1972 will become a nearly 45-year global land record with the successful launch and operation of the LDCM. The LDCM will continue the acquisition, archival, and distribution of multispectral imagery affording global, synoptic, and repetitive coverage of the Earth's land surfaces at a scale where natural and human-induced changes can be detected, differentiated, characterized, and monitored over time. The mission objectives of the LDCM are to (1) collect and archive medium resolution (circa 30-m spatial resolution) multispectral image data affording seasonal coverage of the global landmasses for a period of no less than 5 years; (2) ensure that LDCM data are sufficiently consistent with data from the earlier Landsat missions, in terms of acquisition geometry, calibration, coverage characteristics, spectral characteristics, output product quality, and data availability to permit studies of land-cover and land-use change over time; and (3) distribute LDCM data products to the general public on a nondiscriminatory basis and at a price no greater than the incremental cost of fulfilling a user request. Distribution of LDCM data over the Internet at no cost to the user is currently planned.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2007

Sea-floor character and surface processes in the vicinity of Quicks Hole, Elizabeth Islands, Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management (MA CZM), is producing detailed geologic maps of the coastal sea floor. The imagery, interpretive data layers, and data presented herein were derived from multibeam echo-sounder and sidescan sonar surveys conducted in the vicinity of Quicks Hole, a passage through the Elizabeth Islands, which extend in a chain southwest off Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and from the stations occupied to verify these acoustic data (fig. 1). Basic data layers show sea-floor topography, sun-illuminated shaded relief, and backscatter intensity; interpretive layers show the distributions of surficial sediment, sedimentary environments, and sea-floor features. Presented verification data include sediment grain-size analyses and a gallery of still photographs of the seabed. The multibeam and sidescan data, which cover an approximately 22.9-km 2 area of sea floor that extends from Vineyard Sound on the south to Buzzards Bay on the north, were collected during NOAA hydrographic survey H11076 (fig. 1). Although originally collected for charting purposes, these data provide a fundamental framework for research and management activities along this part of the Massachusetts coastline (Noji and others, 2004), show the composition and terrain of the seabed, and provide information on sediment transport and benthic habitat.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2010

Surficial geology of the sea floor in Long Island Sound offshore of Plum Island, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have been working cooperatively to interpret surficial sea-floor geology along the coast of the Northeastern United States. NOAA survey H11445 in eastern Long Island Sound, offshore of Plum Island, New York, covers an area of about 12 square kilometers. Multibeam bathymetry and sidescan-sonar imagery from the survey, as well as sediment and photographic data from 13 stations occupied during a USGS verification cruise are used to delineate sea-floor features and characterize the environment. Bathymetry gradually deepens offshore to over 100 meters in a depression in the northwest part of the study area and reaches 60 meters in Plum Gut, a channel between Plum Island and Orient Point. Sand waves are present on a shoal north of Plum Island and in several smaller areas around the basin. Sand-wave asymmetry indicates that counter-clockwise net sediment transport maintains the shoal. Sand is prevalent where there is low backscatter in the sidescan-sonar imagery. Gravel and boulder areas are submerged lag deposits produced from the Harbor Hill-Orient Point-Fishers Island moraine segment and are found adjacent to the shorelines and just north of Plum Island, where high backscatter is present in the sidescan-sonar imagery.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2010

Sea-floor geology and character offshore of Rocky Point, New York

Open-File Report↗

USGS1992

Remote sensing studies of the geomorphology of Surtsey, 1987-1991

The volcanic island of Surtsey, formed by explosive submarine and effusive subaerial eruptions between November 1963 and June 1967, consists of a complex combination of primary and redeposited tephra and alkaline olivine basalt lava flows in a 2.5 km 2 area (Thorarinsson, 1967; Thorarinsson et al., 1964; Fridriksson, 1975). During the past 24 years, wave and wind erosion of this subaerial mid-ocean ridge (MOR) vent complex have modified Surtsey's coastal morphology, including the deposition of a 0.5 km-long northern peninsula ( ness ) composed of tephra and rounded lava fragments derived from the southern half of the island. Detailed geomorphologic and sedimentologic mapping of the various surface units now present on Surtsey has been accomplished throughout the history of the evolving island, most recently by Calles et al. (1980) and Ingolfsson (1980). On the basis of these studies, an effort to quantify the topographic characteristics of the primary geomorphic units on the island was initiated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 1987. The objective has been to directly measure the microtopographic properties of the widest range of surface types possible, with special emphasis on the pristine or dynamic types. While large-scale topographic maps of Surtsey were prepared in 1968 and 1975 (Norrman, 1980; Norrman and Erlingsson, 1991; Calles et al, 1980), and geodetic leveling surveys have been carried out (Moore, 1980), there have been no recent attempts to geodetically determine the local topography of the island. Because of the rapid rates of geomorphic processes, such as erosion and deposition, on a small, geologically isolated volcanic island such as Surtsey, it is desirable to determine the meter-scale topographic character of its surface units and landforms, and later a remeasurement of the same surfaces to further quantify volumetric change, subsidence, and process rates. In addition, precise measurements of sub-meter-scale topography of pristine geologic surfaces provides necessary data for the investigation of whether various geologic processes demonstrate fractal or self-affine behavior at a range of length-scales within the interval 0.1 in to 1 km. Thus Surtsey offers a unique opportunity to apply new remote sensing techniques to the measurement of the evolving surface "roughness" characteristics of pristine geologic surfaces within an historically well-monitored environment.

Surtsey Research Progress Report↗

USGS2013

MODIS phenology image service ArcMap toolbox

Seasonal change is important to consider when managing conservation areas at landscape scales. The study of such patterns throughout the year is referred to as phenology. Recurring life-cycle events that are initiated and driven by environmental factors include animal migration and plant flowering. Phenological events capture public attention, such as fall color change in deciduous forests, the first flowering in spring, and for those with allergies, the start of the pollen season. These events can affect our daily lives, provide clues to help understand and manage ecosystems, and provide evidence of how climate variability can affect the natural cycle of plants and animals. Phenological observations can be gathered at a range of scales, from plots smaller than an acre to landscapes of hundreds to thousands of acres. Linking these observations to diverse disciplines such as evolutionary biology or climate sciences can help further research in species and ecosystem responses to climate change scenarios at appropriate scales. A cooperative study between the National Park Service (NPS), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been exploring how satellite information can be used to summarize phenological patterns observed at the park or landscape scale and how those summaries can be presented to both park managers and visitors. This study specifically addressed seasonal changes in plants, including the onset of growth, photosynthesis in the spring, and the senescence of deciduous vegetation in the fall. The primary objective of the work is to demonstrate that seasonality even in protected areas changes considerably across years. A major challenge is to decouple natural variability from possible trends—directional change that can lead to a permanent and radically different ecosystem state. Trends can be either a gradual degradation of the landscape (often from external influences) or steady improvement (by implementing long-term conservation plans). In either case, it is important to first grasp the magnitude of natural variation so that it is not confused with actual trends. This work used existing and freely available remote sensing data, specifically the NASA-funded 250-meter (m) spatial resolution land-surface phenology product for North America. This product is calculated from an annual record of vegetation health observed by NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. The land-surface phenology product is, in essence, a method to summarize all the observations throughout a year into a few key, ecologically relevant “metrics”.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Vulnerabilities of national parks in the American Midwest to climate and land use changes

Many national parks in the American Midwest are surrounded by agricultural or urban areas or are in highly fragmented or rapidly changing landscapes. An environmental stressor is a physical, chemical, or biological condition that affects the functioning or productivity of species or ecosystems. Climate change is just one of many stressors on park natural resources; others include urbanization, land use change, air and water pollution, and so on. Understanding and comparing the relative vulnerability of a suite of parks to projected climate and land use changes is important for region-wide planning. A vulnerability assessment of 60 units in the 13-state U.S. National Park Service Midwestern administrative region to climate and land use change used existing data from multiple sources. Assessment included three components: individual park exposure (5 metrics), sensitivity (5 metrics), and constraints to adaptive capacity (8 metrics) under 2 future climate scenarios. The three components were combined into an overall vulnerability score. Metrics were measures of existing or projected conditions within park boundaries, within 10-kilometer buffers surrounding parks, and within ecoregions that contain or intersect them. Data were normalized within the range of values for all assessed parks, resulting in high, medium, and low relative rankings for exposure, sensitivity, constraints to adaptive capacity, and overall vulnerability. Results are consistent with assessments regarding patterns and rates of climate change nationwide but provide greater detail and relative risk for Midwestern parks. Park overall relative vulnerability did not differ between climate scenarios. Rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and constraints to adaptive capacity varied geographically and indicate regional conservation planning opportunities. The most important stressors for the most vulnerable Midwestern parks are those related to sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of the park) and constraints on adaptive capacity (characteristics of the surrounding landscape) rather than exposure to external forces, including climate change. Output will allow individual park managers to understand which metrics weigh most heavily in the overall vulnerability of their park and can be used for region-wide responses and resource allocation for adaptation efforts.

Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michiga↗

USGS2012

Sea-floor geology in central Rhode Island Sound south of Sakonnet Point, Rhode Island

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are working together to study the sea floor along the northeastern coast of the United States. NOAA collected multibeam-echosounder data during hydrographic survey H11995 in a 63-square-kilometer area in central Rhode Island Sound, south of Sakonnet Point, Rhode Island. The USGS collected sediment samples, bottom video, and still photographs from 27 stations in this study area to verify an interpretation of the bathymetric data. Collected data are used to map areas of scour depressions and erosional outliers, megaripples, boulders, and relatively undisturbed modern marine sediments. In general, much of the eastern part of the study area, a submerged segment of the Harbor Hill-Roanoke Point-Charlestown-Buzzards Bay moraine, is bouldery. Bottom photography shows boulders are generally encrusted with hydrozoans, algae, and anemone. Scour depressions, presumably formed by long-period storm waves, and erosional outliers of Holocene sediments dominate the western part of the study area and several large areas in the east. The scour depressions tend to have coarser grained sediment than intervening erosional outliers. The coarseness likely creates turbulence in the water over these areas, which prevents fine-grained sediment deposition. Several small areas of megaripples are visible in the bathymetry data in the west. Other sandy areas are typically rippled, with burrows, worm tubes, and starfish present.

Rhode Island↗

USGS2006

Climate scenarios for California

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). As part of the scenarios assessment, a statistical technique using properties of historical weather data was employed to correct model biases and “downscale” the global-model simulation of future climates to a finer level of detail, onto a grid of approximately 7 miles (12 kilometers), which is more suitable for impact studies at the scales needed by California decision makers. In current climate-change simulations, temperatures over California warm significantly during the twenty-first century, with temperature increases from approximately +3ºF (1.5ºC) in the lower emissions scenario (B1) within the less responsive model (PCM1) to +8ºF (4.5ºC) in the higher emissions scenario (A2) within the more responsive model (CM2.1). Three of the simulations (all except the low-emission scenario run of the low-response model) exhibit more warming in summer than in winter. In all of the simulations, most precipitation continues to occur in winter, with virtually all derived from North Pacific winter storms. Relatively little change in overall precipitation is projected. Climate warming has a profound influence in diminishing snow accumulations, because there is more rain and less snow, and earlier snowmelt. These snow losses increase as the warming increases, so that they are most severe under climate changes projected by the more sensitive model with the higher GHG emissions.

California↗

USGS2011

Integrating science and resource management in Tampa Bay, Florida

Tampa Bay is recognized internationally for its remarkable progress towards recovery since it was pronounced "dead" in the late 1970s. Due to significant efforts by local governments, industries and private citizens throughout the watershed, water clarity in Tampa Bay is now equal to what it was in 1950, when population in the watershed was less than one-quarter of what it is today. Seagrass extent has increased by more than 8,000 acres since the mid-1980s, and fish and wildlife populations are increasing. Central to this successful turn-around has been the Tampa Bay resource management community's long-term commitment to development and implementation of strong science-based management strategies. Research institutions and agencies, including Eckerd College, the Florida Wildlife Commission Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Mote Marine Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Southwest Florida Water Management District, University of South Florida, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Geological Survey, local and State governments, and private companies contribute significantly to the scientific basis of our understanding of Tampa Bay's structure and ecological function. Resource management agencies, including the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council's Agency on Bay Management, the Southwest Florida Water Management District's Surface Water Improvement and Management Program, and the Tampa Bay Estuary Program, depend upon this scientific basis to develop and implement regional adaptive management programs. The importance of integrating science with management has become fully recognized by scientists and managers throughout the region, State and Nation. Scientific studies conducted in Tampa Bay over the past 10–15 years are increasingly diverse and complex, and resource management programs reflect our increased knowledge of geology, hydrology and hydrodynamics, ecology and restoration techniques. However, a synthesis of this research and its integration into resource management has not been prepared for Tampa Bay since the mid-1980s. The need for an up-to-date synthesis of Tampa Bay science and management has resulted in the production of this document. The U.S. Geological Survey recently completed a 5-year Tampa Bay Integrated Science Study, and the Tampa Bay Estuary Program updated the Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan for Tampa Bay in 2006. These efforts build upon results of the many research and management studies and programs summarized here.

Florida↗

USGS2010

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

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