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USGS2005

Bottled water, spas, and early years of water chemistry

Although hot springs have been used and enjoyed for thousands of years, it was not until the late 1700s that they changed the course of world civilization by being the motivation for development of the science of chemistry. The pioneers of chemistry such as Priestley, Cavendish, Lavoisier, and Henry were working to identify and generate gases, in part, to determine their role in carbonated beverages. In the 18th century, spas in America were developed to follow the traditional activities of popular European spas. However, they were to become a dominant political and economic force in American history on three major points: (1) By far the most important was to provide a place for the leaders of individual colonies to meet and discuss the need for separation from England and the necessity for the Revolutionary War; (2) the westward expansion of the United States was facilitated by the presence of hot springs in many locations that provided the economic justification for railroads and settlement; and (3) the desire for the preservation of hot springs led to the establishment of the National Park Service. Although mineral springs have maintained their therapeutic credibility in many parts of the world, they have not done so in the United States. We suggest that the American decline was prompted by: (1) the establishment of The Johns Hopkins School of Medicine in 1893; (2) enactment of the Pure Food and Drug Act of 1907; and (3) the remarkable achievement of providing safe water supplies for American cities by the end of the 1920s. The current expanding market for bottled water is based in part on bottled water being an alternative beverage Ito alcohol and sweetened drinks and the inconsistent palatability and perceived health hazards of some tap waters.

Groundwater↗

USGS2010

Effects of Groundwater Development on Uranium: Central Valley, California, USA

Uranium (U) concentrations in groundwater in several parts of the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California, have exceeded federal and state drinking water standards during the last 20 years. The San Joaquin Valley is located within the Central Valley of California and is one of the most productive agricultural areas in the world. Increased irrigation and pumping associated with agricultural and urban development during the last 100 years have changed the chemistry and magnitude of groundwater recharge, and increased the rate of downward groundwater movement. Strong correlations between U and bicarbonate suggest that U is leached from shallow sediments by high bicarbonate water, consistent with findings of previous work in Modesto, California. Summer irrigation of crops in agricultural areas and, to lesser extent, of landscape plants and grasses in urban areas, has increased Pco2 concentrations in the soil zone and caused higher temperature and salinity of groundwater recharge. Coupled with groundwater pumping, this process, as evidenced by increasing bicarbonate concentrations in groundwater over the last 100 years, has caused shallow, young groundwater with high U concentrations to migrate to deeper parts of the groundwater system that are tapped by public-supply wells. Continued downward migration of U-affected groundwater and expansion of urban centers into agricultural areas will likely be associated with increased U concentrations in public-supply wells. The results from this study illustrate the potential longterm effects of groundwater development and irrigation-supported agriculture on water quality in arid and semiarid regions around the world.

California↗

USGS2008

Global daily reference evapotranspiration modeling and evaluation

Accurate and reliable evapotranspiration (ET) datasets are crucial in regional water and energy balance studies. Due to the complex instrumentation requirements, actual ET values are generally estimated from reference ET values by adjustment factors using coefficients for water stress and vegetation conditions, commonly referred to as crop coefficients. Until recently, the modeling of reference ET has been solely based on important weather variables collected from weather stations that are generally located in selected agro-climatic locations. Since 2001, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) has been producing six-hourly climate parameter datasets that are used to calculate daily reference ET for the whole globe at 1-degree spatial resolution. The U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science has been producing daily reference ET (ETo) since 2001, and it has been used on a variety of operational hydrological models for drought and streamflow monitoring all over the world. With the increasing availability of local station-based reference ET estimates, we evaluated the GDAS-based reference ET estimates using data from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Daily CIMIS reference ET estimates from 85 stations were compared with GDAS-based reference ET at different spatial and temporal scales using five-year daily data from 2002 through 2006. Despite the large difference in spatial scale (point vs . ∼100 km grid cell) between the two datasets, the correlations between station-based ET and GDAS-ET were very high, exceeding 0.97 on a daily basis to more than 0.99 on time scales of more than 10 days. Both the temporal and spatial correspondences in trend/pattern and magnitudes between the two datasets were satisfactory, suggesting the reliability of using GDAS parameter-based reference ET for regional water and energy balance studies in many parts of the world. While the study revealed the potential of GDAS ETo for large-scale hydrological applications, site-specific use of GDAS ETo in complex hydro-climatic regions such as coastal areas and rugged terrain may require the application of bias correction and/or disaggregation of the GDAS ETo using downscaling techniques.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2024

The state of the bats in North America

The world's rich diversity of bats supports healthy ecosystems and important ecosystem services. Maintaining healthy biological systems requires prompt identification of threats to biodiversity and immediate action to protect species, which for wide-ranging bat species that span geopolitical boundaries warrants international coordination. Anthropogenic forces drive the threats to bats throughout North America and the world. We conducted an international expert elicitation to assess the status of 153 bat species in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. We used expert assessment to determine the conservation status, highest impact threats, and recent population trends for these species. We found that 53% of North American bat species have moderate to very high risk of extinction in the next 15 years. The highest impact threats varied with species and country, and four IUCN threat categories had the greatest overall impacts: Climate Change, Problematic Species (including disease), Agriculture, and Energy Production. Experts estimated that 90% of species assessed had decreasing population trends over the past 15 years, demonstrating the need for conservation action. Although the state of North American bats is concerning, we identify threats that can be addressed through internationally collaborative, proactive, and protective actions to support the recovery and resilience of North American bat species.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2018

Green‐wave surfing increases fat gain in a migratory ungulate

Each spring, migratory herbivores around the world track or ‘surf’ green waves of newly emergent vegetation to distant summer or wet‐season ranges. This foraging tactic may help explain the great abundance of migratory herbivores on many seasonal landscapes. However, the underlying fitness benefits of this life‐history strategy remain poorly understood. A fundamental prediction of the green‐wave hypothesis is that migratory herbivores obtain fitness benefits from surfing waves of newly emergent vegetation more closely than their resident counterparts. Here we evaluate whether this behavior increases body‐fat levels – a critically important correlate of reproduction and survival for most ungulates – in elk Cervus elaphus of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Using satellite imagery and GPS tracking data, we found evidence that migrants (n = 23) indeed surfed the green wave, occupying sites 12.7 days closer to peak green‐up than residents (n = 16). Importantly, individual variation in surfing may help account for up to 6 kg of variation in autumn body‐fat levels. Our findings point to a pathway for anthropogenic changes to the green wave (e.g. climate change) or migrants’ ability to surf it (e.g. development) to impact migratory populations. To explore this possibility, we evaluated potential population‐level consequences of constrained surfing with a heuristic model. If green‐wave surfing deteriorates by 5–15 days from observed, our model predicts up to a 20% decrease in pregnancy rates, a 2.5% decrease in population growth, and a 30% decrease in abundance over 50 years. By linking green‐wave surfing to fitness and illustrating potential effects on population growth, our study provides new insights into the evolution of migratory behavior and the prospects for the persistence of migratory ungulate populations in a changing world.

Wyoming↗

USGS2010

Preliminary assessment of several parameters to measure and compare usefulness of the CEOS reference pseudo-invariant calibration sites

Test sites are central to any future quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) strategy. The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Working Group for Calibration and Validation (WGCV) Infrared Visible Optical Sensors (IVOS) worked with collaborators around the world to establish a core set of CEOS-endorsed, globally distributed, reference standard test sites (both instrumented and pseudo-invariant) for the post-launch calibration of space-based optical imaging sensors. The pseudo-invariant calibration sites (PICS) have high reflectance and are usually made up of sand dunes with low aerosol loading and practically no vegetation. The goal of this paper is to provide preliminary assessment of "several parameters" than can be used on an operational basis to compare and measure usefulness of reference sites all over the world. The data from Landsat 7 (L7) Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and the Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) Hyperion sensors over the CEOS PICS were used to perform a preliminary assessment of several parameters, such as usable area, data availability, top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance, at-sensor brightness temperature, spatial uniformity, temporal stability, spectral stability, and typical spectrum observed over the sites.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1991

Resource constraints in petroleum production potential

Geologic reasons indicate that the dominant position of the Middle East as a source of conventional petroleum will not be changed by new discoveries elsewhere. The share of world crude oil production coming from the Middle East could increase, within 10 to 20 years, to exceed 50 percent, under even modest increases in world consumption. Nonconventional resources of oil exist in large quantities, but because of their low production rates they can at best only mitigate extant trends. Increased production of natural gas outside the United States, however, offers an opportunity for geographically diversified energy supplies in the near future.

Science↗

USGS2005

Coal systems analysis: A new approach to the understanding of coal formation, coal quality and environmental considerations, and coal as a source rock for hydrocarbons

Coal is an important and required energy source for today's world. Current rates of world coal consumption are projected to continue at approximately the same (or greater) levels well into the twenty-first century. This paper will provide an introduction to the concept of coal systems analysis and the accompanying volume of papers will provide examples of how coal systems analysis can be used to understand, characterize, and evaluate coal and coal gas resources. Coal systems analysis incorporates the various disciplines of coal geology to provide a complete characterization of the resource. The coal system is divided into four stages: (1) accumulation, (2) preservation-burial, (3) diagenesis-coalification, and (4) coal and hydrocarbon resources. These stages are briefly discussed and key references and examples of the application of coal systems analysis are provided.

Special Papers of the Geological Society of Americ↗

USGS1988

Seismic imaging of extended crust with emphasis on the western United States

Understanding of the crust has improved dramatically following the application of seismic reflection and refraction techniques to studies of the deep crust. This is particularly true in areas where the last tectonic event was extensional, such as the Basin and Range province of the western United States and much of western Europe. In these regions, a characteristic reflective pattern has emerged, whereby the lower crust is highly reflective and the upper crust and upper mantle are either poorly reflective or strikingly nonreflective. In the metamorphic-core-complex belt in the western United States, where extension can be as much as an order of magnitude greater than in the more classic continental rift zones, the lower crustal reflectivity thickens and rises, yielding a picture of a crust that is reflective throughout. Synthetic seismic studies have documented that the reflectivity in these regions can be modeled by numerous laminae tens of meters thick and hundreds of meters across, characterized by inter-layered high and low velocities. Two geologic factors are interpreted as contributing to this layered character: ductile strain, responding to stress in the thermally weakened middle and lower crust, and intrusive layering, corresponding to injection of subhorizontal sheets of mantle-derived magmas. These two processes yield a variety of geologic structures, including transposed compositional layering, mylonitic ductile shear zones, and intrusive mafic sheets, all of which occur at the proper scales to cause the prominent reflectivity observed. If metamorphic core complexes are representative of extended continental crust world-wide, then these results suggest that magmatism and ductile flow have also contributed to the evolution of the middle and lower crust in many other areas around the world.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS2009

Hydrothermal processes above the Yellowstone magma chamber: Large hydrothermal systems and large hydrothermal explosions

Hydrothermal explosions are violent and dramatic events resulting in the rapid ejection of boiling water, steam, mud, and rock fragments from source craters that range from a few meters up to more than 2 km in diameter; associated breccia can be emplaced as much as 3 to 4 km from the largest craters. Hydrothermal explosions occur where shallow interconnected reservoirs of steam- and liquid-saturated fluids with temperatures at or near the boiling curve underlie thermal fields. Sudden reduction in confining pressure causes fluids to flash to steam, resulting in significant expansion, rock fragmentation, and debris ejection. In Yellowstone, hydrothermal explosions are a potentially significant hazard for visitors and facilities and can damage or even destroy thermal features. The breccia deposits and associated craters formed from hydrothermal explosions are mapped as mostly Holocene (the Mary Bay deposit is older) units throughout Yellowstone National Park (YNP) and are spatially related to within the 0.64-Ma Yellowstone caldera and along the active Norris-Mammoth tectonic corridor. In Yellowstone, at least 20 large (>100 m in diameter) hydrothermal explosion craters have been identified; the scale of the individual associated events dwarfs similar features in geothermal areas elsewhere in the world. Large hydrothermal explosions in Yellowstone have occurred over the past 16 ka averaging ~1 every 700 yr; similar events are likely in the future. Our studies of large hydrothermal explosion events indicate: (1) none are directly associated with eruptive volcanic or shallow intrusive events; (2) several historical explosions have been triggered by seismic events; (3) lithic clasts and comingled matrix material that form hydrothermal explosion deposits are extensively altered, indicating that explosions occur in areas subjected to intense hydrothermal processes; (4) many lithic clasts contained in explosion breccia deposits preserve evidence of repeated fracturing and vein-filling; and (5) areal dimensions of many large hydrothermal explosion craters in Yellowstone are similar to those of its active geyser basins and thermal areas. For Yellowstone, our knowledge of hydrothermal craters and ejecta is generally limited to after the Yellowstone Plateau emerged from beneath a late Pleistocene icecap that was roughly a kilometer thick. Large hydrothermal explosions may have occurred earlier as indicated by multiple episodes of cementation and brecciation commonly observed in hydrothermal ejecta clasts. Critical components for large, explosive hydrothermal systems include a water-saturated system at or near boiling temperatures and an interconnected system of well-developed joints and fractures along which hydrothermal fluids flow. Active deformation of the Yellowstone caldera, active faulting and moderate local seismicity, high heat flow, rapid changes in climate, and regional stresses are factors that have strong influences on the type of hydrothermal system developed. Ascending hydrothermal fluids flow along fractures that have developed in response to active caldera deformation and along edges of low-permeability rhyolitic lava flows. Alteration of the area affected, self-sealing leading to development of a caprock for the hydrothermal system, and dissolution of silica-rich rocks are additional factors that may constrain the distribution and development of hydrothermal fields. A partial low-permeability layer that acts as a cap to the hydrothermal system may produce some over-pressurization, thought to be small in most systems. Any abrupt drop in pressure initiates steam flashing and is rapidly transmitted through interconnected fractures that result in a series of multiple large-scale explosions contributing to the excavation of a larger explosion crater. Similarities between the size and dimensions of large hydrothermal explosion craters and thermal fields in Yellowstone may indicate that catastrophic events which result in large hydrothermal explosions are an end phase in geyser basin evolution. The Mary Bay hydrothermal explosion crater complex is the largest such complex in Yellowstone, and possibly in the world, with a diameter of 2.8 km in length and 2.4 km in width. It is nested in Mary Bay in the northern basin of Yellowstone Lake, an area of high heat flow and active deformation within the Yellowstone caldera. A sedimentary sequence exposed in wave-cut cliffs between Storm Point and Mary Bay gives insight into the geologic history of the Mary Bay hydrothermal explosion event. The Mary Bay explosion breccia deposits overlie sand above varved lake sediments and are separated locally into an upper and lower unit. The sand unit contains numerous small normal faults and is coextensive with the Mary Bay breccia in its northern extent. This sand may represent deposits of an earthquake-generated wave. Seismicity associated with the earthquake may have triggered the hydrothermal explosion responsible for development of the Mary Bay crater complex. Large hydrothermal explosions are rare events on a human time scale; however, the potential for additional future events of the sort in Yellowstone National Park is not insignificant. Based on the occurrence of large hydrothermal explosion events over the past 16,000 yr, an explosion large enough to create a 100-m-wide crater might be expected every 200 yr.

Wyoming↗

USGS2008

Great Basin paleontological database

The U.S. Geological Survey has constructed a paleontological database for the Great Basin physiographic province that can be served over the World Wide Web for data entry, queries, displays, and retrievals. It is similar to the web-database solution that we constructed for Alaskan paleontological data (www.alaskafossil.org). The first phase of this effort was to compile a paleontological bibliography for Nevada and portions of adjacent states in the Great Basin that has recently been completed. In addition, we are also compiling paleontological reports (Known as E&R reports) of the U.S. Geological Survey, which are another extensive source of l,egacy data for this region. Initial population of the database benefited from a recently published conodont data set and is otherwise focused on Devonian and Mississippian localities because strata of this age host important sedimentary exhalative (sedex) Au, Zn, and barite resources and enormons Carlin-type An deposits. In addition, these strata are the most important petroleum source rocks in the region, and record the transition from extension to contraction associated with the Antler orogeny, the Alamo meteorite impact, and biotic crises associated with global oceanic anoxic events. The finished product will provide an invaluable tool for future geologic mapping, paleontological research, and mineral resource investigations in the Great Basin, making paleontological data acquired over nearly the past 150 yr readily available over the World Wide Web. A description of the structure of the database and the web interface developed for this effort are provided herein. This database is being used ws a model for a National Paleontological Database (which we am currently developing for the U.S. Geological Survey) as well as for other paleontological databases now being developed in other parts of the globe. ?? 2008 Geological Society of America.

Geosphere↗

USGS1990

Seismic imaging of extended crust with emphasis on the western United States

Special Papers of the Geological Society of Americ↗

USGS2011

Introduction to fire danger rating and remote sensing - Will remote sensing enhance wildland fire danger prediction?

While ‘Fire Danger’ per se cannot be measured, the physical properties of the biotic and abiotic world that relate to fire occurrence and fire behavior can. Today, increasingly sophisticated Remote Sensing methods are being developed to more accurately detect fuel properties such as species composition (fuel types), vegetation structure or plant water content - to name a few. Based on meteorological input data and physical, semi-physical or empirical model calculations, Wildland Fire Danger Rating Systems provide ‘indirect values’ - numerical indices - at different temporal scales (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly) denoting the physical conditions that may lead to fire ignition and support fire propagation. The results can be expressed as fire danger levels, ranging from ‘low’ to ‘very high’, and are commonly used in operational wildland fire management (e.g., the Canadian Fire Weather Index [FWI] System, the Russian Nesterov Index, or the U.S. National Fire Danger Rating System [NFDRS]). Today, fire danger levels are often turned into broad scale maps with the help of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) showing the areas with the different fire danger levels, and are distributed via the World Wide Web. In this chapter we will outline some key issues dealing with Remote Sensing and GIS techniques that are covered in the following chapters, and elaborate how the Fire Danger Rating concepts could be integrated into a framework that enables comprehensive and sustainable wildland fire risk assessment. To do so, we will first raise some general thoughts about wildland fires and suggest how to approach this extremely complex phenomenon. Second, we will outline a possible fire risk analysis framework and third we will give a short overview on existing Fire Danger Rating Systems and the principles behind them.

Series in Remote Sensing↗

USGS2022

Low-density geochemical mapping and the robustness of geochemical patterns

Geochemical mapping of entire continents and, ultimately, the world is still a challenge for applied geochemists. At sample densities traditionally used for geochemical exploration (1 site per 1-25 km2), geochemical mapping of whole continents is logistically extremely demanding and tremendously expensive. The first low-density geochemical surveys (1 site per 200 km2) were carried out during the late 1960s in Africa. Later surveys conducted in various parts of the world had sample densities ranging from 1 site per 300 km2 to 1 site per 18 000 km2. Although these surveys were deemed successful by the investigators in defining variations in background element content on a regional scale, the scientific community was sceptical that low-density geochemical mapping was possible and would provide useful information. The main area of criticism centred around the concern that at such low sample densities the resulting maps would not be robust, i.e. if the same area were resampled and remapped, different geochemical patterns would emerge. Different examples from the USA, Europe, China and Africa demonstrate that low-density geochemical mapping will result in stable and robust geochemical patterns at the continental scale. Such maps are urgently needed for a wide variety of applications. ?? 2008 AAG/ Geological Society of London.

Geochemistry: Exploration, Environment, Analysis↗

USGS2022

Weakly supervised spatial deep learning for Earth image segmentation based on imperfect polyline labels

In recent years, deep learning has achieved tremendous success in image segmentation for computer vision applications. The performance of these models heavily relies on the availability of large-scale high-quality training labels (e.g., PASCAL VOC 2012). Unfortunately, such large-scale high-quality training data are often unavailable in many real-world spatial or spatiotemporal problems in earth science and remote sensing (e.g., mapping the nationwide river streams for water resource management). Although extensive efforts have been made to reduce the reliance on labeled data (e.g., semi-supervised or unsupervised learning, few-shot learning), the complex nature of geographic data such as spatial heterogeneity still requires sufficient training labels when transferring a pre-trained model from one region to another. On the other hand, it is often much easier to collect lower-quality training labels with imperfect alignment with earth imagery pixels (e.g., through interpreting coarse imagery by non-expert volunteers). However, directly training a deep neural network on imperfect labels with geometric annotation errors could significantly impact model performance. Existing research that overcomes imperfect training labels either focuses on errors in label class semantics or characterizes label location errors at the pixel level. These methods do not fully incorporate the geometric properties of label location errors in the vector representation. To fill the gap, this article proposes a weakly supervised learning framework to simultaneously update deep learning model parameters and infer hidden true vector label locations. Specifically, we model label location errors in the vector representation to partially reserve geometric properties (e.g., spatial contiguity within line segments). Evaluations on real-world datasets in the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) refinement application illustrate that the proposed framework outperforms baseline methods in classification accuracy.

ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Techno↗

USGS2002

Global modeling of land water and energy balances. Part I: The land dynamics (LaD) model

A simple model of large-scale land (continental) water and energy balances is presented. The model is an extension of an earlier scheme with a record of successful application in climate modeling. The most important changes from the original model include 1) introduction of non-water-stressed stomatal control of transpiration, in order to correct a tendency toward excessive evaporation: 2) conversion from globally constant parameters (with the exception of vegetation-dependent snow-free surface albedo) to more complete vegetation and soil dependence of all parameters, in order to provide more realistic representation of geographic variations in water and energy balances and to enable model-based investigations of land-cover change; 3) introduction of soil sensible heat storage and transport, in order to move toward realistic diurnal-cycle modeling; 4) a groundwater (saturated-zone) storage reservoir, in order to provide more realistic temporal variability of runoff; and 5) a rudimentary runoff-routing scheme for delivery of runoff to the ocean, in order to provide realistic freshwater forcing of the ocean general circulation model component of a global climate model. The new model is tested with forcing from the International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Initiative I global dataset and a recently produced observation-based water-balance dataset for major river basins of the world. Model performance is evaluated by comparing computed and observed runoff ratios from many major river basins of the world. Special attention is given to distinguishing between two components of the apparent runoff ratio error: the part due to intrinsic model error and the part due to errors in the assumed precipitation forcing. The pattern of discrepancies between modeled and observed runoff ratios is consistent with results from a companion study of precipitation estimation errors. The new model is tuned by adjustment of a globally constant scale factor for non-water-stressed stomatal resistance. After tuning, significant overestimation of runoff is found in environments where an overall arid climate includes a brief but intense wet season. It is shown that this error may be explained by the neglect of upward soil water diffusion from below the root zone during the dry season. With the exception of such basins, and in the absence of precipitation errors. It is estimated that annual runoff ratios simulated by the model would have a root-mean-square error of about 0.05. The new model matches observations better than its predecessor, which has a negative runoff bias and greater scatter.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗

USGS2014

Reducing risk from lahar hazards: Concepts, case studies, and roles for scientists

Lahars are rapid flows of mud-rock slurries that can occur without warning and catastrophically impact areas more than 100 km downstream of source volcanoes. Strategies to mitigate the potential for damage or loss from lahars fall into four basic categories: (1) avoidance of lahar hazards through land-use planning; (2) modification of lahar hazards through engineered protection structures; (3) lahar warning systems to enable evacuations; and (4) effective response to and recovery from lahars when they do occur. Successful application of any of these strategies requires an accurate understanding and assessment of the hazard, an understanding of the applicability and limitations of the strategy, and thorough planning. The human and institutional components leading to successful application can be even more important: engagement of all stakeholders in hazard education and risk-reduction planning; good communication of hazard and risk information among scientists, emergency managers, elected officials, and the at-risk public during crisis and non-crisis periods; sustained response training; and adequate funding for risk-reduction efforts. This paper reviews a number of methods for lahar-hazard risk reduction, examines the limitations and tradeoffs, and provides real-world examples of their application in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and in other volcanic regions of the world. An overriding theme is that lahar-hazard risk reduction cannot be effectively accomplished without the active, impartial involvement of volcano scientists, who are willing to assume educational, interpretive, and advisory roles to work in partnership with elected officials, emergency managers, and vulnerable communities.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗

USGS2022

Guidelines for volcano-observatory operations during crises: Recommendations from the 2019 Volcano Observatory Best Practices meeting

In November 2019, the fourth meeting on Volcano Observatory Best Practices workshop was held in Mexico City as a series of talks, discussions, and panels. Volcanologists from around the world offered suggestions for ways to optimize volcano-observatory crisis operations. By crisis, we mean unrest that may or may not lead to eruption, the eruption itself, or its aftermath, all of which require analysis and communications by the observatory. During a crisis, the priority of the observatory should be to acquire, process, analyze, and interpret data in a timely manner. A primary goal is to communicate effectively with the authorities in charge of civil protection. Crisis operations should rely upon exhaustive planning in the years prior to any actual unrest or eruptions. Ideally, nearly everything that observatories do during a crisis should be envisioned, prepared, and practiced prior to the actual event. Pre-existing agreements and exercises with academic and government collaborators will minimize confusion about roles and responsibilities. In the situation where planning is unfinished, observatories should prioritize close ties and communications with the land and civil-defense authorities near the most threatening volcanoes. To a large extent, volcanic crises become social crises, and any volcano observatory should have a communication strategy, a lead communicator, regular status updates, and a network of colleagues outside the observatory who can provide similar messaging to a public that desires consistent and authoritative information. Checklists permit tired observatory staff to fulfill their duties without forgetting key communications, data streams, or protocols that need regular fulfilment (Bretton et al. 2018; Newhall et al. 2020). Observatory leaders need to manage staff workload to prevent exhaustion and ensure that expertise is available as needed. Event trees and regular group discussions encourage multi-disciplinary thinking, consideration of disparate viewpoints, and documentation of all group decisions and consensus. Though regulations, roles and responsibilities differ around the world, scientists can justify their actions in the wake of an eruption if they document their work, are thoughtful and conscientious in their deliberations, and carry out protocols and procedures developed prior to volcanic unrest. This paper also contains six case studies of volcanic eruptions or observatory actions that illustrate some of the topics discussed herein. Specifically, we discuss Ambae (Vanuatu) in 2017–2018, Kīlauea (USA) in 2018, Etna (Italy) in 2018, Bárðarbunga (Iceland) in 2014, Cotopaxi (Ecuador) in 2015, and global data sharing to prepare for eruptions at Nyiragongo (Democratic Republic of Congo).

Hawaii↗