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USGS2010

Estimation of groundwater use for a groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin and adjacent areas, 1864-2005

The U.S. Geological Survey, at the request of Congress, is assessing the availability and use of the Nation's water resources to help characterize how much water is available now, how water availability is changing, and how much water can be expected to be available in the future. The Great Lakes Basin Pilot project of the U.S. Geological Survey national assessment of water availability and use focused on the Great Lakes Basin and included detailed studies of the processes governing water availability in the Great Lakes Basin. One of these studies included the development of a groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin. This report describes the compilation and estimation of the groundwater withdrawals in those areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois that were needed for the Lake Michigan Basin study groundwater-flow model. These data were aggregated for 12 model time intervals spanning 1864 to 2005 and were summarized by model area, model subregion, category of water use, aquifer system, aquifer type, and hydrogeologic unit model layer. The types and availability of information on groundwater withdrawals vary considerably among states because water-use programs often differ in the types of data collected and in the methods and frequency of data collection. As a consequence, the methods used to estimate and verify the data also vary. Additionally, because of the different sources of data and different terminologies applied for the purposes of this report, the water-use data published in this report may differ from water-use data presented in other reports. These data represent only a partial estimate of groundwater use in each state because estimates were compiled only for areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois within the Lake Michigan Basin model area. Groundwater-withdrawal data were compiled for both nearfield and farfield model areas in Wisconsin and Illinois, whereas these data were compiled primarily for the nearfield model area in Michigan and Indiana. Overall water use for the selected areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois was less during early time intervals than during more recent intervals, with large increases beginning around the 1960s. Total estimated groundwater withdrawals for model input range from 18.01 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for interval 1 (1864-1900) to 1,280.25 Mgal/d for interval 12 (2001-5). Withdrawals for the public-supply category make up the majority of the withdrawals in each of the four states. In Wisconsin and Michigan, the second largest withdrawals are for the irrigation category; in Indiana and Illinois, industrial withdrawals account for the second largest withdrawal amounts. The smallest withdrawals are for miscellaneous uses in Wisconsin and irrigation uses in Indiana and Illinois. Estimated groundwater withdrawals in the Southern Lower Peninsula of Michigan, Northeastern Illinois, and the farfield model area are generally larger than in the other model subregions. Withdrawals in Michigan and Indiana are predominantly from the Quaternary aquifer system, whereas withdrawals in Illinois are predominantly from the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer systems. Withdrawals in Wisconsin are about equal from the Quaternary and Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer systems. Estimated groundwater withdrawals in Michigan and Indiana are predominantly from the unconfined unconsolidated aquifer type. Withdrawals in Illinois are largely from the deep confined bedrock aquifer type, although they decreased considerably in more recent time intervals. Wisconsin withdrawals are about equal from unconfined unconsolidated and deep confined bedrock aquifer types. Groundwater-withdrawal estimates in Wisconsin were compiled for the 47 easternmost counties within the boundary of the Lake Michigan Basin model, of which 32 counties, though not entirely contained, are at least partly within the Lake Michigan Basin. Overall, 6,457 withdrawal locations were estima

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS1983

Water resources data for Hawaii and other Pacific areas, water year 1982: Volume 2. Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, and American Samoa

Volume 2 of water resources data for the 1982 water year for other Pacific areas consist of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams and springs; stage of a lake and a reservoir; and water levels and water quality in wells. This report contains discharge records for 43 gaging stations; stage only record for 2 gaging stations; water quality for 1 gaging station, 36 partial-record stations; water temperature for 42 gaging stations; and water levels for 14 observation wells and water quality for 52 ground-water sites. Also included are 43 low-flow partial-record stations. Additional water data were collected at various sites, not part of the systematic data collection program, and are published as miscellaneous measurements. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating Governments and Federal agencies in other Pacific areas.

American Samoa, Guam↗

USGS1985

Water resources data for Hawaii and other Pacific areas, water year 1984: Volume 2. Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, and American Samoa

Volume 2 of water resources data for the 1984 water year for other Pacific areas consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams and springs; stage of 2 lakes and a reservoir; and water levels and water quality in wells. This report contains discharge records for 32 gaging stations; stage only record for 3 gaging stations; water quality for 14 gaging stations; 14 partial-record stations; water temperature for 32 gaging stations; and water levels for 37 observation wells and water quality for 113 ground-water sites. Also included are 19 low-flow partial-record stations. Additional water data were collected at various sites, not part of the systematic data collection program, and are published as miscellaneous measurements. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating Governments and Federal agencies in other Pacific areas.

Hawaii↗

USGS1987

Water resources data for Hawaii and other Pacific areas, water year 1985: Volume 2. Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, and American Samoa

Volume 2 of water resources data for the 1985 water year for other Pacific areas consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams and springs; stage of 2 lakes and a reservoir; and water levels and water quality in wells. This report contains discharge records for 31 gaging stations; stage only record for 3 gaging stations; water quality for 8 gaging stations; 6 partial-record stations; water temperature for 31 gaging stations; and water levels for 35 observation wells and water quality for 110 ground-water sites. Also included are 19 low-flow partial-record stations. Additional water data were collected at various sites, not part of the systematic data collection program, and are published as miscellaneous measurements. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating Governments and Federal agencies in other Pacific areas.

Hawaii↗

USGS2016

Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Programme coastal biodiversity monitoring background paper

In 2014, the United States (U.S.) and Canada agreed to act as co-lead countries for the initial development of the Coastal Expert Monitoring Group (CEMG) as part of the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program (CBMP, www. cbmp.is) under the Arctic Council’s Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF, www.caff.is) working group. The CAFF Management Board approved Terms of Reference for the CEMG in the spring of 2014. The primary goal of the CEMG is to develop a long term, integrated, multi-disciplinary, circumpolar Arctic Coastal Biodiversity Monitoring Plan (the Coastal Plan) that relies on science and Traditional Knowledge, and has direct and relevant application for communities, industry, government decision makers, and other users. In addition to the monitoring plan, the CAFF working group has asked the CBMP, and thus the CEMG, to develop an implementation plan that identifies timeline, costs, organizational structure and partners. This background paper provides a platform for the guidance for the development of the Coastal Plan and is produced by the CEMG with assistance from a number of experts in multiple countries.

Report↗

USGS2021

Enumerating white-tailed deer using unmanned aerial vehicles

The white‐tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) is an ecologically important species in forests of North America. Effective management of forests requires accurate, precise estimates of deer population abundance to plan and justify management actions. Spotlight surveys in combination with distance sampling are a common method of estimating deer population abundance; however, spotlight surveys are known to have serious drawbacks such as high costs and sampling biases. Therefore, we tested the effectiveness of enumerating deer from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flights, conducted 1 and 6 March 2018, to develop population and density estimates in 2 United States National Parks: Harpers Ferry National Historic Park (HAFE) and Monocacy National Battlefield (MONO). Concurrent spotlight surveys at MONO enabled us to compare estimates obtained by the 2 methods. Deer density estimates by 4 observers of UAV‐obtained thermal imagery from HAFE were 94.5 ± 3.9 deer/km 2 . Concurrent UAV and spotlight surveys at MONO found 19.7 ± 0.5 deer/km 2 and 6.4 ± 4.9 deer/km 2 , respectively; suggesting that spotlight surveys may significantly underestimate deer densities. Despite the logistical challenges to UAV operation, our findings demonstrate that UAVs will become an invaluable tool for wildlife management as technology improves. © 2021 The Wildlife Society. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Maryland, West Virginia↗

USGS2022

The gap between experts, farmers and non-farmers on perceived environmental vulnerability and the influence of values and beliefs

Science has played a mixed role in guiding conservation and sustainability-oriented decision-making by individuals, policymakers, institutions, and governments. Not all science-based conservation and sustainability initiatives that address issues facing humanity and ecosystems and global problems have gained public support. Conservation decisions and policy prescriptions are and may be based on perceptions about and experiences with the environment, local land use, and ecosystems that may not align with or be grounded in science or evidence from experts in the field. Values, beliefs, and perceptions associated with nature play a critical role in how individuals view biodiversity conservation, sustainability, and natural resource management . This study first examines the gap between experts (scientists and other field experts) and the public (farmers and non-farmers) about the state of water and land resources, wildlife and associated habitats, and aquatic biodiversity in the Smoky Hill River Watershed in western Kansas. Second, the study examines the role that values and beliefs play in shaping environmental perceptions for farmers and non-farmers. Analysis confirms that a gap between experts and farmers/non-farmers does exist, especially with respect to the state of the Ogallala Aquifer, playas, rivers and streams, lakes and reservoirs, native grasslands, wildlife habitats, farmland, native fish populations, and wildlife species. Ordered-logistic regression analyses, meanwhile, indicate that farmer and non-farmer perceptions about the state of the local environment are influenced by traditional and self-interested values, as well as environmental values and beliefs, but less so by religiosity and political ideology. Despite broad takeaways, results exhibited heterogeneity across the farmer and non-farmer subpopulations. If environmental professionals cannot align ecological data, stakeholders’ values/perceptions, and policies, then the existing body of technical research and management on sustainability in natural and social sciences may be of little value.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2007

Geochemistry of Selected Coal Samples from Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua, Indonesia

Introduction Indonesia is an archipelago of more than 17,000 islands that stretches astride the equator for about 5,200 km in southeast Asia (figure 1) and includes major Cenozoic volcano-plutonic arcs, active volcanoes, and various related onshore and offshore basins. These magmatic arcs have extensive Cu and Au mineralization that has generated much exploration and mining in the last 50 years. Although Au and Ag have been mined in Indonesia for over 1000 years (van Leeuwen, 1994), it was not until the middle of the nineteenth century that the Dutch explored and developed major Sn and minor Au, Ag, Ni, bauxite, and coal resources. The metallogeny of Indonesia includes Au-rich porphyry Cu, porphyry Mo, skarn Cu-Au, sedimentary-rock hosted Au, epithermal Au, laterite Ni, and diamond deposits. For example, the Grasberg deposit in Papua has the world's largest gold reserves and the third-largest copper reserves (Sillitoe, 1994). Coal mining in Indonesia also has had a long history beginning with the initial production in 1849 in the Mahakam coal field near Pengaron, East Kalimantan; in 1891 in the Ombilin area, Sumatra, (van Leeuwen, 1994); and in South Sumatra in 1919 at the Bukit Asam mine (Soehandojo, 1989). Total production from deposits in Sumatra and Kalimantan, from the 19thth century to World War II, amounted to 40 million metric tons (Mt). After World War II, production declined due to various factors including politics and a boom in the world-wide oil economy. Active exploration and increased mining began again in the 1980's mainly through a change in Indonesian government policy of collaboration with foreign companies and the global oil crises (Prijono, 1989). This recent coal revival (van Leeuwen, 1994) has lead Indonesia to become the largest exporter of thermal (steam) coal and the second largest combined thermal and metallurgical (coking) coal exporter in the world market (Fairhead and others, 2006). The exported coal is desirable as it is low sulfur and ash (generally <1 and < 10 wt.%, respectively). Coal mining for both local use and for export has a very strong future in Indonesia although, at present, there are concerns about the strong need for a major revision in mining laws and foreign investment policies (Wahju, 2004; United States Embassy Jakarta, 2004). The World Coal Quality Inventory (WoCQI) program of the U.S. Geological Survey (Tewalt and others, 2005) is a cooperative project with about 50 countries (out of 70 coal-producing countries world-wide). The WoCQI initiative has collected and published extensive coal quality data from the world's largest coal producers and consumers. The important aspects of the WoCQI program are; (1) samples from active mines are collected, (2) the data have a high degree of internal consistency with a broad array of coal quality parameters, and (3) the data are linked to GIS and available through the world-wide-web. The coal quality parameters include proximate and ultimate analysis, sulfur forms, major-, minor-, and trace-element concentrations and various technological tests. This report contains geochemical data from a selected group of Indonesian coal samples from a range of coal types, localities, and ages collected for the WoCQI program.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Greater sage-grouse as an umbrella species for shrubland passerine birds: a multiscale assessment

Working groups and government agen-cies are planning and conducting land actions in sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitats to benefit Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations. Managers have adopted an umbrella concept, creating habitat characteristics specific to sage-grouse requirements, in the belief that other wildlife species dependent on sagebrush will benefit. We tested the efficacy of this approach by first identifying the primary environmental gradients underlying sagebrush steppe bird com-munities (including Greater Sage-Grouse). We integrated field sampling for birds and vegetation with geographic information system (GIS) data to characterize 305 sites sampled throughout the current range of Greater Sage-Grouse in the Intermountain West, United States. The primary environmental axis defining the bird community represented a gradient from local-scale Wyoming/basin big sagebrush (A. t. ssp. wyomingensis/A. t. ssp. tridentata), and bare ground cover to local and regional grassland cover; the second axis repre-sented a transition from low-elevation Wyoming/basin big sagebrush and bare ground to mountain big sagebrush (A. t. ssp. vaseyana) and habitat edge. We identified the relative overlap of sage-grouse with 13 species of passerine birds along the multiscale gradients and estimated the width of the umbrella when applying management guidelines specific to sage-grouse. Passerine birds associated with sagebrush steppe habitats had high levels of overlap with Greater Sage-Grouse along the multiscale environmental gradients. However, the overlap of the umbrella was prima-rily a function of the broad range of sagebrush habitats used by sage-grouse. Management that focuses on creating a narrow set of plot-scale con-ditions will likely be less effective than restoration efforts that recognize landscape scale heterogene-ity and multiscale organization of habitats. These multiscale efforts may improve some sage-grouse habitats and strengthen the management umb-rella for shrub steppe passerine birds.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

Climatic controls on the distribution of foundation plant species in coastal wetlands of the conterminous United States: Knowledge gaps and emerging research needs

Foundation plant species play a critical role in coastal wetlands, often modifying abiotic conditions that are too stressful for most organisms and providing the primary habitat features that support entire ecological communities. Here, we consider the influence of climatic drivers on the distribution of foundation plant species within coastal wetlands of the conterminous USA. Using region-level syntheses, we identified 24 dominant foundation plant species within 12 biogeographic regions, and we categorized species and biogeographic regions into four groups: graminoids, mangroves, succulents, and unvegetated. Literature searches were used to characterize the level of research directed at each of the 24 species. Most coastal wetlands research has been focused on a subset of foundation species, with about 45% of publications directed at just one grass species—Spartina alterniflora. An additional 14 and 8% have been directed, respectively, at two mangrove species—Rhizophora mangle and Avicennia germinans. At the national scale, winter temperature extremes govern the distribution of mangrove forests relative to salt marsh graminoids, and arid conditions can produce hypersaline conditions that increase the dominance of succulent plants, algal mats, and unvegetated tidal flats (i.e., salt flats, salt pans) relative to graminoid and mangrove plants. Collectively, our analyses illustrate the diversity of foundation plant species in the conterminous USA and begin to elucidate the influence of climatic drivers on their distribution. However, our results also highlight critical knowledge gaps and identify emerging research needs for assessing climate change impacts. Given the importance of plant-mediated processes in coastal wetland ecosystems, there is a pressing need in many biogeographic regions for additional species- and functional group-specific research that can be used to better anticipate coastal wetland responses to rising sea levels and changing temperature and precipitation regimes.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2019

Managing effects of drought and other water resource challenges in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest

This is a Cooperator Report. As such, there is no specific abstract. The physical, ecological, and social environments of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the United States are extremely diverse. Alaska ranges from the Arctic Ocean and the very cold, dry environments of the North Slope to the cool and very rainy coastal North Pacific region of Southeast Alaska. Most precipitation falls as snow at higher elevations. In Arctic Alaska, average annual temperature is 14.6 F, and average annual precipitation is 11 inches. By contrast, in Southeast Alaska, average annual temperature is 35.8 F, and annual average precipitation is 143 inches. The PNW, defined here as Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, ranges from the Pacific Coast (annual precipitation of 200 inches) to interior semi-arid regions (annual precipitation of 8 inches). Precipitation patterns in the PNW are strongly governed by orographic phenomena, with high, persistent snowpack in the higher mountains (e.g., record annual snowfall of 1,130 in at Mount Baker, Washington in 1999-2000). Ecosystems in the PNW include productive temperate coniferous forests near the Pacific coast and along the (wet) west slope of the Cascade Range, less productive mixed-conifer forest along the (dry) east slope of the Cascades and in interior mountain ranges, and sagebrush-steppe and shrublands at lower elevations in much of the interior and mountain valleys. Large rivers and thousands of smaller tributaries form an extensive network of riparian, wetland, and estuarine systems that provide both critical hydrologic function and biological diversity at broad and fine spatial scales. Although Alaska and the Pacific Northwest differ in important physical, ecological, and social features, the importance of natural resources is evident in both regions. Water is important for wildlife and people. Water provides critical habitat for salmon, which are culturally and economically valuable species. Timber production has declined in recent decades. Recreation has emerged as a major revenue source.

Alaska, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2018

What is the value of wild bee pollination for wild blueberries and cranberries, and who values it?

Pollinator conservation efforts and growing interest in wild bee pollination have increased markedly in the last decade, making it increasingly important to have clear and practical estimates of the value of pollinators to agriculture. We used agricultural statistics, socio-economic producer surveys, and agronomic field research data to estimate traditional pollination value metrics and create novel approaches to the valuation of the ecosystem services provided by wild pollinators. Using two regionally important United States (USA) crops—Maine wild blueberry and Massachusetts cranberry—as models, we present the perceived values of wild bee pollinators from the perspectives of both consumers and producers. The net income attributable to wild bees was similar for wild blueberry ($613/ha) and cranberry ($689/ha). Marginal profit from incrementally adding more hives per ha was greater from stocking a third/fourth hive for cranberry ($6206/ha) than stocking a ninth/10th hive for wild blueberry ($556/ha), given the greater initial responsiveness of yield, revenue, and profit using rented honey bee hives in cranberry compared with wild blueberry. Both crops’ producers were willing to annually invest only $140–188/ha in wild pollination enhancements on their farms, justifying government financial support. Consumers are willing to pay ≈6.7 times more to support wild bees than producers, which indicates a potential source for market-based subsidies for invertebrate conservation.

Environments↗

USGS2015

Feather isotope analysis reveals differential patterns of habitat and resource use in populations of white-winged doves

The white-winged dove ( Zenaida asiatica ) serves an important ecological role as a diurnal pollinator of the saguaro cactus in the Sonoran desert and an economic role as a highly sought after game bird in North America. White-winged doves are intimately linked to anthropogenic changes on the landscape and because of this, have experienced dramatic population fluctuations over the last 75 years in response, both positively and negatively, to anthropogenic changes on the landscape. To understand the factors driving population growth and decline of migratory species like the white-winged dove, it is imperative we study resource use on both their breeding and wintering grounds. To understand how populations are distributed on the wintering grounds, we tested an alternative to band recovery approaches by using stable isotope analysis. Before we could use isotope analysis to link breeding and wintering locations for this species, we first needed to determine if hydrogen (δ 2 H) and carbon (δ 13 C) stable isotopes in feather tissue (δ 2 H f and δ 13 C f , respectively) could differentiate among populations of white-winged doves across their breeding range in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona. δ 2 H f and δ 13 C f not only differentiated between populations of white-winged doves that breed in the United States, but δ 2 H f also provided further differentiation in white-winged doves that breed in native Sonoran Desert and agricultural habitats in the western portion of their range. Ecological processes associated with desert resources and anthropogenic influences, specifically saguaro cacti and irrigated crops, largely determined δ 2 H f in some white-winged doves in Arizona whereas δ 2 H of precipitation (δ 2 H p ) largely determined δ 2 H f of doves in New Mexico and Texas. This study highlights the usefulness of stable isotope analysis to differentiate populations of animals across the landscape and the insight isotopes can provide into habitat and resource use. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Arizona, California, New Mexico, Texas↗

USGS2011

Development of a pan-Arctic monitoring plan for polar bears: Background paper

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus), by their very nature, and the extreme, remote environment in which they live, are inherently difficult to study and monitor. Monitoring polar bear populations is both arduous and costly and, to be effective, must be a long-term commitment. There are few jurisdictional governments and management boards with a mandate for polar bear research and management, and many have limited resources. Although population monitoring of polar bears has been a focus to some degree within most jurisdictions around the Arctic, of the 19 subpopulations recognised by the IUCN/Species Survival Commission Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG), adequate scientific trend data exist for only three of the subpopulations, fair trend data for five and poor or no trend data for the remaining 11 subpopulations (PBSG 2010a). There are especially critical knowledge gaps for the subpopulations in East Greenland, in the Russian Kara and Laptev seas, and in the Chukchi Sea, which is shared between Russia and the United States. The range covered by these subpopulations represents a third of the total area (approx. 23 million km2) of polar bears’ current range, and more than half if the Arctic Basin is included. If we use popular terms, we know close to nothing about polar bears in this portion of their range. As summer sea-ice extent, and to a lesser degree, spring-time extent, continues to retreat, outpacing model forecasts (Stroeve et al. 2007, Pedersen et al. 2009), polar bears face the challenge of adapting to rapidly changing habitats. There is a need to use current and synthesised information across the Arctic, and to develop new methods that will facilitate monitoring to generate new knowledge at a pan-Arctic scale. The circumpolar dimension can be lost when efforts are channelled into regional monitoring. Developing and implementing a plan that harmonises local, regional and global efforts will increase our power to detect and understand important trends for polar bears, with particular emphasis on how climate warming may differentially affect populations and habitats. Current knowledge is inadequate for a comprehensive understanding of the present and future impact of climate warming and its interaction with other stressors. The cumulative effects are unknown (Laidre et al. 2008). An integrated pan-Arctic research and monitoring plan will improve the ability to detect future trends, identify the most vulnerable subpopulations and guide effective conservation. There is a need to direct attention and resources where data are deficient to understand the mechanisms that drive trends, and to facilitate more effective and timely conservation response.

Report↗

USGS2010

Byproduct mineral commodities used for the production of photovoltaic cells

Rising fossil fuel costs, environmental concerns relating to global climate change, and Government policy to signifcantly increase our Nation's energy independence have placed greater emphasis on the generation of electricity from renewable sources, such as the Sun (light and heat), water, and wind, which for all intents and purposes are inexhaustible resources. Although the total amount of electricity generated from the direct conversion of sunlight through photovoltaic cells is relatively small compared with that from other forms of renewable energy, the rate of growth in the sector is signifcant. The total value of energy of photovoltaic cells produced worldwide increased to nearly 7 gigawatts (GW) in 2008 from 45 megawatts (MW) in 1990, a compound annual growth rate of about 30 percent. In the United States, manufacturing of photovoltaic cells has grown exponentially to about 480 MW in 2008, accounting for 6 percent of world production, from less than 10 MW of photovoltaic capacity in 1990 (Benner, 2007; U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, 2010), a compound annual growth rate of approxi-mately 23 percent. A production capacity of 1 GW of electricity [or 8,760 gigawatthours1 (GWh)] is equivalent to the annual electricity requirements for roughly 800,000 average households in the United States (U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, 2010). This estimate does not include losses of electricity, such as during transmission through power lines.

Circular↗

USGS2020

Probabilistic application of an integrated catchment-estuary-coastal system model to assess the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts over the 21st century

Inlet-interrupted sandy coasts are dynamic and complex coastal systems with continuously evolving geomorphological behaviors under the influences of both climate change and human activities. These coastal systems are of great importance to society (e.g., providing habitats, navigation, and recreational activities) and are affected by both oceanic and terrestrial processes. Therefore, the evolution of these inlet-interrupted coasts is better assessed by considering the entirety of the Catchment-Estuary-Coastal (CEC) systems, under plausible future scenarios for climate change and increasing pressures due to population growth and human activities. Such a holistic assessment of the long-term evolution of CEC systems can be achieved via reduced-complexity modeling techniques, which are also ably quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projections due to their lower simulation times. Here, we develop a novel probabilistic modeling framework to quantify the input-driven uncertainties associated with the evolution of CEC systems over the 21 st century. In this new approach, probabilistic assessment of the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts is achieved by (1) probabilistically computing the exchange sediment volume between the inlet-estuary system and its adjacent coast, and (2) distributing the computed sediment volumes along the inlet-interrupted coast. The model is applied at three case study sites: Alsea estuary (United States), Dyfi estuary (United Kingdom), and Kalutara inlet (Sri Lanka). Model results indicate that there are significant uncertainties in projected volume exchange at all the CEC systems (min-max range of 2.0 million cubic meters in 2100 for RCP 8.5), and the uncertainties in these projected volumes illustrate the need for probabilistic modeling approaches to evaluate the long-term evolution of CEC systems. A comparison of 50 th percentile probabilistic projections with deterministic estimates shows that the deterministic approach overestimates the sediment volume exchange in 2100 by 15–30% at Alsea and Kalutara estuary systems. Projections of coastline change obtained for the case study sites show that accounting for all key processes governing coastline change along inlet-interrupted coasts in computing coastline change results in projections that are between 20 and 134% greater than the projections that would be obtained if only the Bruun effect were taken into account, underlining the inaccuracies associated with using the Bruun rule at inlet-interrupted coasts.

Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics↗

USGS2023

Simulation of regional groundwater flow and advective transport of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst and vicinity, New Jersey, 2018

A three-dimensional numerical model of groundwater flow was developed and calibrated for the unconsolidated New Jersey Coastal Plain aquifers underlying Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst (JBMDL) and vicinity, New Jersey, to evaluate groundwater flow pathways of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) contamination associated with use of aqueous film forming foam (AFFF) at the base. The regional subsurface flow model spans an area of approximately 518 square miles around JBMDL and is based on a previously developed hydrogeologic framework of the area. Steady-state flow in the unconsolidated aquifers was simulated using the MODFLOW 6 groundwater flow model, which is able to account for hydrostratigraphic pinchouts and discontinuities in the Coastal Plain aquifers underlying JBMDL. To account for local patterns of fluid flow driving advective subsurface migration of PFAS, the grid was refined using quadtree meshes spanning 21 areas where historical AFFF use was identified, five off-site reconnaissance areas identified by AFCEC as areas in which the occurrence of PFAS is most likely to pose a potential danger to local drinking water supplies, and along streams that behave as drains in the base-flow-dominated Coastal Plain. Following grid refinement, four physical processes known to govern subsurface flow were introduced to the model. These included effective precipitation recharge, discharge to streams and stream-connected wetlands, regional inflows and outflows along the model bottom, and withdrawals from wells, each of which were incorporated into the model as either external or internal boundary conditions. To account for effective precipitation recharge, a specified-flow boundary was assigned along the top of the model. Similarly, regional flows predicted using the modified U.S Geological Survey’s New Jersey Coastal Plain Regional Aquifer System Analysis model were treated as specified-flow boundary conditions along the bottom of the model. Base-flow losses were treated as drains along streams delineated using a 10-foot LiDAR dataset. Drains were also assigned to cells falling within stream-connected National Hydrologic Database wetlands. Finally, well-pumpage data mined from the New Jersey Water Transfer database were added to the model to account for extraction of groundwater through pumping from industrial-supply and drinking-water-supply wells. Along model edges established at groundwater divides, where the net flux of water across the boundary is equal to zero, natural no-flow boundary conditions were imposed. The refined flow model was calibrated using the parameter-estimation (PEST) program, which adjusts model parameters by performing a gradient search over the sum-of-squared-error objective function until the parameter set that produces simulated water levels and base flows most closely matches 544 water levels and 20 estimated base flows and closely adheres to initial parameter estimates. Based on the analysis of calibration residuals, the model did not appear to be affected by significant model structural error. The MODPATH particle-tracking algorithm was used to estimate advective transport paths of PFAS in the vicinity of JBMDL. Forward tracking was used to determine paths of PFAS away from AFFF source areas to streams, wetlands, pumping wells, and geographic areas that PFAS may contaminate. Additionally, reverse tracking was used to determine particle pathlines away from off-site PFAS reconnaissance areas, or areas within which all sources of PFAS might be advectively transported into subsurface drinking-water supplies, to locations at land surface that may indicate a source of PFAS. The coupled and calibrated groundwater flow and particle-tracking transport model provide valuable tools for predicting the relative extent of PFAS contamination from onsite legacy source areas. The calibrated model also provides measures of water-level and base-flow observation influence that can help guide future data-collection efforts related to groundwater and surface water sampling for PFAS.

New Jersey↗

USGS1999

Environmental issues associated with fossil fuel resources; an evaluation of research opportunities for the U.S. Geological Survey's Energy Resources Program

Fossil fuel consumption in the United States has nearly tripled within the last 50 years (fig. 1), and is expected to continue increasing. As our knowledge and awareness of environmental consequences related to fossil fuel extraction and use grow, we as a nation, face the challenge of balancing our energy requirements with a desire for environmentally cleaner fuel. To help meet this challenge, the Energy Resources Program (ERP) of the Geologic Division (GD), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) sponsored three internal workshops and a World Wide Web (WWW) workshop. The primary goal of these workshops was to identify those environmental issues that are related to fossil fuels, are national in scope, and are within the purview of the USGS as an earth-science government agency. Those issues so identified will be prioritized according to ERP's future research plan and according to the extent they provide an environmental framework for ERP's petroleum and coal assessments. The purpose of this paper is to provide the results of the internal and WWW workshops as proposed topics of research for future ERP work, delineate studies to answer the questions related to each proposed research area, and link the studies to the seven science goals of the Geologic Division. The information provided herein will be used in preparing the USGS Geologic Division's FY2000 prospectus and ERP's next five-year strategic plan. Acknowledgements. The authors wish to acknowledge information on ERP environmental projects provided by Les Magoon, Paul Lillis, Keith Kvenvolden, Tom Lorenson, and Bob Rosenbauer. Peter Schweitzer was instrumental in providing the software for the WWW workshop, Cheryl Adkisson for constructing the workshop web pages, and Laura Friedrich for constructing the web pages summarizing the internal workshops. Stan Mroczkowski, Jim Otton, Donna Read, and Dorothy Tanti provided notes of or logistical assistance for the internal workshops. This report reflects the collective input of numerous USGS managers and scientists their participation in the workshops is greatly appreciated.

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