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USGS2005

The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A toolbox for water- and environmental-resources management

The increasing complexity of water- and environmental-resource problems require modeling approaches that incorporate knowledge from a broad range of scientific and software disciplines. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the Modular Modeling System (MMS). MMS is an integrated system of computer software for model development, integration, and application. Its modular design allows a high level of flexibility and adaptability to enable modelers to incorporate their own software into a rich array of built-in models and modeling tools. These include individual process models, tightly coupled models, loosely coupled models, and fully- integrated decision support systems. A geographic information system (GIS) interface, the USGS GIS Weasel, has been integrated with MMS to enable spatial delineation and characterization of basin and ecosystem features, and to provide objective parameter-estimation methods for models using available digital data. MMS provides optimization and sensitivity-analysis tools to analyze model parameters and evaluate the extent to which uncertainty in model parameters affects uncertainty in simulation results. MMS has been coupled with the Bureau of Reclamation object-oriented reservoir and river-system modeling framework, RiverWare, to develop models to evaluate and apply optimal resource-allocation and management strategies to complex, operational decisions on multipurpose reservoir systems and watersheds. This decision support system approach has been developed, tested, and implemented in the Gunnison, Yakima, San Joaquin, Rio Grande, and Truckee River basins of the western United States. MMS is currently being coupled with the U.S. Forest Service model SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape Scales (SIMPPLLE) to assess the effects of alternative vegetation-management strategies on a variety of hydrological and ecological responses. Initial development and testing of the MMS-SIMPPLLE integration is being conducted on the Colorado Plateau region of the western United Sates.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2017

Indicator-driven conservation planning across terrestrial, freshwater aquatic, and marine ecosystems of the south Atlantic, USA

Systematic conservation planning, a widely used approach to identify priority lands and waters, uses efficient, defensible, and transparent methods aimed at conserving biodiversity and ecological systems. Limited financial resources and competing land uses can be major impediments to conservation; therefore, participation of diverse stakeholders in the planning process is advantageous to help address broad-scale threats and challenges of the 21st century. Although a broad extent is needed to identify core areas and corridors for fish and wildlife populations, a fine-scale resolution is needed to manage for multiple, interconnected ecosystems. Here, we developed a conservation plan using a systematic approach to promote landscape-level conservation within the extent of the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative. Our objective was to identify the highest-ranked 30% of lands and waters within the South Atlantic deemed necessary to conserve ecological and cultural integrity for the 10 primary ecosystems of the southeastern United States. These environments varied from terrestrial, freshwater aquatic, and marine. The planning process was driven by indicators of ecosystem integrity at a 4-ha resolution. We used the program Zonation and 28 indicators to optimize the identification of lands and waters to meet the stated objective. A novel part of our study was the prioritization of multiple ecosystems, and we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of this approach. The evaluation of indicator representation within prioritizations was a useful method to show where improvements could be made; some indicators dictated hotspots, some had a limited extent and were well represented, and others had a limited effect. Overall, we demonstrate that a broad-scale (408,276 km 2 of terrestrial and 411,239 km 2 of marine environments) conservation plan can be realized at a fine-scale resolution, which will allow implementation of the regional plan at a local level relevant to decision making.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2006

Understanding the genetic effects of recent habitat fragmentation in the context of evolutionary history: Phylogeography and landscape genetics of a southern California endemic Jerusalem cricket (Orthoptera: Stenopelmatidae: Stenopelmatus)

Habitat loss and fragmentation due to urbanization are the most pervasive threats to biodiversity in southern California. Loss of habitat and fragmentation can lower migration rates and genetic connectivity among remaining populations of native species, reducing genetic variability and increasing extinction risk. However, it may be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric fragmentation due to previous natural geological and climatic changes. To address these challenges, we examined the phylogenetic and population genetic structure of a flightless insect endemic to cismontane southern California, Stenopelmatus 'mahogani' (Orthoptera: Stenopelmatidae). Analyses of mitochondrial DNA sequence data suggest that diversification across southern California began during the Pleistocene, with most haplotypes currently restricted to a single population. Patterns of genetic divergence correlate with contemporary urbanization, even after correcting for (geographical information system) GIS-based reconstructions of fragmentation during the Pleistocene. Theoretical simulations confirm that contemporary patterns of genetic structure could be produced by recent urban fragmentation using biologically reasonable assumptions about model parameters. Diversity within populations was positively correlated with current fragment size, but not prehistoric fragment size, suggesting that the effects of increased drift following anthropogenic fragmentation are already being seen. Loss of genetic connectivity and diversity can hinder a population's ability to adapt to ecological perturbations commonly associated with urbanization, such as habitat degradation, climatic changes and introduced species. Consequently, our results underscore the importance of preserving and restoring landscape connectivity for long-term persistence of low vagility native species. Journal compilation ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Molecular Ecology↗

USGS1998

Geospatial Technology Applications and Infrastructure in the Biological Resources Division

Executive Summary -- Automated spatial processing technology such as geographic information systems (GIS), telemetry, and satellite-based remote sensing are some of the more recent developments in the long history of geographic inquiry. For millennia, humankind has endeavored to map the Earth's surface and identify spatial relationships. But the precision with which we can locate geographic features has increased exponentially with satellite positioning systems. Remote sensing, GIS, thematic mapping, telemetry, and satellite positioning systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) are tools that greatly enhance the quality and rapidity of analysis of biological resources. These technologies allow researchers, planners, and managers to more quickly and accurately determine appropriate strategies and actions. Researchers and managers can view information from new and varying perspectives using GIS and remote sensing, and GPS receivers allow the researcher or manager to identify the exact location of interest. These geospatial technologies support the mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Biological Resources Division (BRD) and the Strategic Science Plan (BRD 1996) by providing a cost-effective and efficient method for collection, analysis, and display of information. The BRD mission is 'to work with others to provide the scientific understanding and technologies needed to support the sound management and conservation of our Nation's biological resources.' A major responsibility of the BRD is to develop and employ advanced technologies needed to synthesize, analyze, and disseminate biological and ecological information. As the Strategic Science Plan (BRD 1996) states, 'fulfilling this mission depends on effectively balancing the immediate need for information to guide management of biological resources with the need for technical assistance and long-range, strategic information to understand and predict emerging patterns and trends in ecological systems.' Information sharing plays a key role in nearly everything BRD does. The Strategic Science Plan discusses the need to (1) develop tools and standards for information transfer, (2) disseminate information, and (3) facilitate effective use of information. This effort centers around the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII) and the National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI), components of the National Information Infrastructure. The NBII and NSDI are distributed electronic networks of biological and geographical data and information, as well as tools to help users around the world easily find and retrieve the biological and geographical data and information they need. The BRD is responsible for developing scientifically and statistically reliable methods and protocols to assess the status and trends of the Nation's biological resources. Scientists also conduct important inventory and monitoring studies to maintain baseline information on these same resources. Research on those species for which the Department of the Interior (DOI) has trust responsibilities (including endangered species and migratory species) involves laboratory and field studies of individual animals and the environments in which they live. Researchboth tactical and strategicis conducted at the BRD's 17 science centers and 81 field stations, 54 Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units in 40 states, and at 11 former Cooperative Park Study Units. Studies encompass fish, birds, mammals, and plants, as well as their ecosystems and the surrounding landscape. Biological Resources Division researchers use a variety of scientific tools in their endeavors to understand the causes of biological and ecological trends. Research results are used by managers to predict environmental changes and to help them take appropriate measures to manage resources effectively. The BRD Geospatial Technology Program facilitates the collection, analysis, and dissemination of data and informat

Information and Technology Report↗

USGS2009

Sustaining visitor use in protected areas: Future opportunities in recreation ecology research based on the USA experience

Recreation ecology, the study of environmental consequences of outdoor recreation activities and their effective management, is a relatively new field of scientific study having emerged over the last 50 years. During this time, numerous studies have improved our understanding of how use-related, environmental and managerial factors affect ecological conditions and processes. Most studies have focused on vegetation and soil responses to recreation-related trampling on trails and recreation sites using indicators such as percent vegetation cover and exposed mineral soil. This applied approach has and will continue to yield important information for land managers. However, for the field to advance, more attention needs to be given to other ecosystem attributes and to the larger aspects of environmental conservation occurring at landscape scales. This article is an effort at initiating a dialog on needed advances in the field. We begin by reviewing broadly generalizable knowledge of recreation ecology, to separate what is known from research gaps. Then, based on the authors’ perspective of research in the USA and North America, several research directions are suggested as essential for continued progress in this field including theoretical development, broadening scale, integration with other disciplines, and examination of synergistic effects.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2003

Landscape change in the southern Piedmont: challenges, solutions, and uncertainty across scales

The southern Piedmont of the southeastern United States epitomizes the complex and seemingly intractable problems and hard decisions that result from uncontrolled urban and suburban sprawl. Here we consider three recurrent themes in complicated problems involving complex systems: (1) scale dependencies and cross-scale, often nonlinear relationships; (2) resilience, in particular the potential for complex systems to move to alternate stable states with decreased ecological and/or economic value; and (3) uncertainty in the ability to understand and predict outcomes, perhaps particularly those that occur as a result of human impacts. We consider these issues in the context of landscape-level decision making, using as an example water resources and lotic systems in the Piedmont region of the southeastern United States.

Conservation Ecology↗

USGS2024

Visualizing wading bird optimal foraging decisions with aggregation behaviors using individual-based modeling

Foragers on patchy landscapes must efficiently balance time between searching for and consuming resources to meet their daily energetic requirements. Spatial aggregation foraging behaviors may improve foraging efficiency by sharing information on locations of resource hotspots. Wading birds are an example of patch foragers that form colonial aggregations during the breeding season to obtain sufficient prey energy to sustain themselves and their offspring each day. Here, we describe a spatially-explicit simulation model of wading bird optimal foraging that represents information sharing through visual cues. The overall purpose of the model is to describe how wading bird daily foraging and reproductive success may change with alternative water control management practices that determine spatial availability of prey for wading birds on the landscape, throughout their breeding seasons. Wading birds are simulated as individuals that operate independently, sampling and selecting among patches based on a prey density tolerance threshold, but also use information from other birds to inform their selection decisions. Foraging success is evaluated against the fundamental objectives of (a) fulfilling daily energetic demands and (b) minimizing predation exposure, by tracking individual daily energetic intake and time spent foraging. In this way, the model approximates population level dynamics of wading bird aggregations that emerge through collective decision making of birds simulated at the lower individual level. Key results of this study suggest that aggregation behaviors may improve population-level foraging success rates, and the optimal settling threshold may modulate when resources become more scarce or difficult to find. Thus, the model addresses ecological theory on the advantages of foraging in groups versus independently. This technique is appropriate for evaluating wading bird populations that forage on patchy landscapes, such as seasonally-pulsed wetlands, wherever sufficient information is available to describe (1) foraging behavior (e.g., feeding rate, flight speeds, patch selection decisions), (2) key landscape characteristics, (3) spatial distributions of prey densities among foraging patches, and (4) changes in prey densities through time. The model was designed to predict qualitative, testable spatial patterns of wading bird foraging movements which can be compared with empirical observations and empirically-derived habitat suitability models. These techniques can also be applied to other bird species, such as shorebirds, or more generally to any species that transits between discrete foraging patches.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2019

Estimating offsets for avian displacement effects of anthropogenic impacts

Biodiversity offsetting, or compensatory mitigation, is increasingly being used in temperate grassland ecosystems to compensate for unavoidable environmental damage from anthropogenic developments such as transportation infrastructure, urbanization, and energy development. Pursuit of energy independence in the United States will expand domestic energy production. Concurrent with this increased growth is increased disruption to wildlife habitats, including avian displacement from suitable breeding habitat. Recent studies at energy-extraction and -generation facilities have provided evidence for behavioral avoidance and thus reduced use of habitat by breeding waterfowl and grassland birds in the vicinity of energy infrastructure. To quantify and compensate for this loss in value of avian breeding habitat, it is necessary to determine a biologically-based currency so that the sufficiency of offsets in terms of biological equivalent value can be obtained. We describe a method for quantifying the amount of habitat needed to provide equivalent biological value for avifauna displaced by energy and transportation infrastructure, based on the ability to define five metrics: impact distance, impact area, pre-impact density, percent displacement, and offset density. We calculate percent displacement values for breeding waterfowl and grassland birds and demonstrate the applicability of our avian-impact offset method using examples for wind and oil infrastructure. We also apply our method to an example in which the biological value of the offset habitat is similar to the impacted habitat, based on similarity in habitat type (e.g., native prairie), geographical location, land use, and landscape composition, as well as to an example in which the biological value of the offset habitat is dissimilar to the impacted habitat. We provide a worksheet that informs potential users how to apply our method to their specific developments and a framework for developing decision-support tools aimed at achieving landscape-level conservation goals.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2022

Industrial energy development decouples ungulate migration from the green wave

The ability to freely move across the landscape to track the emergence of nutritious spring green-up (termed ‘green-wave surfing’) is key to the foraging strategy of migratory ungulates. Across the vast landscapes traversed by many migratory herds, habitats are being altered by development with unknown consequences for surfing. Using a unique long-term tracking dataset, we found that when energy development occurs within mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) migration corridors, migrating animals become decoupled from the green wave. During the early phases of a coalbed natural gas development, deer synchronized their movements with peak green-up. But faced with increasing disturbance as development expanded, deer altered their movements by holding up at the edge of the gas field and letting the green wave pass them by. Development often modified only a small portion of the migration corridor but had far-reaching effects on behaviour before and after migrating deer encountered it, thus reducing surfing along the entire route by 38.65% over the 14-year study period. Our study suggests that industrial development within migratory corridors can change the behaviour of migrating ungulates and diminish the benefits of migration. Such disruptions to migratory behaviour present a common mechanism whereby corridors become unprofitable and could ultimately be lost on highly developed landscapes.

Wyoming↗

USGS2009

Impacts of forest fragmentation on species richness: A hierarchical approach to community modelling

1. Species richness is often used as a tool for prioritizing conservation action. One method for predicting richness and other summaries of community structure is to develop species-specific models of occurrence probability based on habitat or landscape characteristics. However, this approach can be challenging for rare or elusive species for which survey data are often sparse. 2. Recent developments have allowed for improved inference about community structure based on species-specific models of occurrence probability, integrated within a hierarchical modelling framework. This framework offers advantages to inference about species richness over typical approaches by accounting for both species-level effects and the aggregated effects of landscape composition on a community as a whole, thus leading to increased precision in estimates of species richness by improving occupancy estimates for all species, including those that were observed infrequently. 3. We developed a hierarchical model to assess the community response of breeding birds in the Hudson River Valley, New York, to habitat fragmentation and analysed the model using a Bayesian approach. 4. The model was designed to estimate species-specific occurrence and the effects of fragment area and edge (as measured through the perimeter and the perimeter/area ratio, P/A), while accounting for imperfect detection of species. 5. We used the fitted model to make predictions of species richness within forest fragments of variable morphology. The model revealed that species richness of the observed bird community was maximized in small forest fragments with a high P/A. However, the number of forest interior species, a subset of the community with high conservation value, was maximized in large fragments with low P/A. 6. Synthesis and applications. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the responses of both individual, and groups of species, to environmental heterogeneity while illustrating the utility of hierarchical models for inference about species richness for conservation. This framework can be used to investigate the impacts of land-use change and fragmentation on species or assemblage richness, and to further understand trade-offs in species-specific occupancy probabilities associated with landscape variability.

New York↗

USGS2009

Road zone effects in small-mammal communities

Our study focused on the putative effects of roads on small-mammal communities in a high desert region of southern Utah. Specifically, we tested whether or not roads create adjacent zones characterized by lower small- mammal densities, abundance, and diversity. We sampled abundance of small mammals at increasing distances from Interstate 15 during two summers. We recorded 11 genera and 13 species. We detected no clear abundance, density, or diversity effects relative to distance from the road. Only two of 13 species were never captured near roads. The abundance of the remaining 11 small mammal species was either similar at different distances from the road or higher closer to the road. We conclude that although roads may act as barriers and possible sources of mortality, adjacent zones of vegetation often provide favorable microhabitat in the desert landscape for many small mammals. ?? 2009 by the author(s).

Ecology and Society↗

USGS2017

Landscape context and the biophysical response of rivers to dam removal in the United States

Dams have been a fundamental part of the U.S. national agenda over the past two hundred years. Recently, however, dam removal has emerged as a strategy for addressing aging, obsolete infrastructure and more than 1,100 dams have been removed since the 1970s. However, only 130 of these removals had any ecological or geomorphic assessments, and fewer than half of those included before- and after-removal (BAR) studies. In addition, this growing, but limited collection of dam-removal studies is limited to distinct landscape settings. We conducted a meta-analysis to compare the landscape context of existing and removed dams and assessed the biophysical responses to dam removal for 63 BAR studies. The highest concentration of removed dams was in the Northeast and Upper Midwest, and most have been removed from 3 rd and 4 th order streams, in low-elevation (< 500 m) and low-slope (< 5%) watersheds that have small to moderate upstream watershed areas (10–1000 km 2 ) with a low risk of habitat degradation. Many of the BAR-studied removals also have these characteristics, suggesting that our understanding of responses to dam removals is based on a limited range of landscape settings, which limits predictive capacity in other environmental settings. Biophysical responses to dam removal varied by landscape cluster, indicating that landscape features are likely to affect biophysical responses to dam removal. However, biophysical data were not equally distributed across variables or clusters, making it difficult to determine which landscape features have the strongest effect on dam-removal response. To address the inconsistencies across dam-removal studies, we provide suggestions for prioritizing and standardizing data collection associated with dam removal activities.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2011

Restoring and rehabilitating sagebrush habitats

Less than half of the original habitat of the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus uropha-sianus) currently exists. Some has been perma-nently lost to farms and urban areas, but the remaining varies in condition from high quality to no longer adequate. Restoration of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) grassland ecosystems may be pos-sible for resilient lands. However, Greater Sage-Grouse require a wide variety of habitats over large areas to complete their life cycle. Effective restoration will require a regional approach for prioritizing and identifying appropriate options across the landscape. A landscape triage method is recommended for prioritizing lands for restora-tion. Spatial models can indicate where to protect and connect intact quality habitat with other simi-lar habitat via restoration. The ecological site con-cept of land classification is recommended for characterizing potential habitat across the region along with their accompanying state and transi-tion models of plant community dynamics. These models assist in identifying if passive, manage-ment-based or active, vegetation manipulation?based restoration might accomplish the goals of improved Greater Sage-Grouse habitat. A series of guidelines help formulate questions that manag-ers might consider when developing restoration plans: (1) site prioritization through a landscape triage; (2) soil verification and the implications of soil features on plant establishment success; (3) a comparison of the existing plant community to the potential for the site using ecological site descriptions; (4) a determination of the current successional status of the site using state and transition models to aid in predicting if passive or active restoration is necessary; and (5) implemen-tation of post-treatment monitoring to evaluate restoration effectiveness and post-treatment man-agement implications to restoration success.

Book chapter↗

USGS2003

Landscape change in the Southern Piedmont: Challenges, solutions and uncertainty across scales

Ecology and Society↗

USGS2018

Synchrony — An emergent property of recreational fisheries

Recreational fisheries are traditionally managed at local scales, but more effective management could be achieved using a cross‐scale approach. To do this, we must first understand how local processes scale up to influence landscape patterns between anglers and resources. We highlight how population‐based synchrony methods, used in conjunction with a complex‐adaptive‐systems framework, can reveal emergent spatial properties within social‐ecological systems such as recreational fisheries. Herein, we quantified the level of spatial synchrony in angler behaviour, defined the relationship between angler synchrony and distance among waterbodies, and highlighted social‐ecological attributes contributing to these patterns. We leveraged a 111 waterbody‐year (34 waterbodies, 5‐year collection period) recreational fisheries dataset from Nebraska, USA to address these objectives. Intra‐annual patterns in angler behaviour were moderately synchronous across large spatial scales and predominately unrelated to distance among waterbodies. Large‐scale synchronous patterns in angler behaviour emerged from local‐scale interactions between angler heterogeneity and waterbody diversity. Spatial synchrony in angler behaviour is an emergent property that resulted from local‐level processes that scaled up to form large‐scale patterns. We posit that angler utility in combination with waterbodies sharing these desired utility components caused spatial synchrony among anglers with similar preferences or specializations. The level of spatial synchrony in angler behaviour will therefore depend on the degree of angler heterogeneity and waterbody diversity on the landscape, with high or low levels of both leading to low and high levels of spatial synchrony respectively. Synthesis and applications. Synchrony‐based methods proved useful for unveiling an emergent property in recreational fisheries that is beneficial for effective cross‐scale management. It may not be appropriate to extrapolate information and apply uniform management actions among local waterbodies because angler behaviour was not synchronous at small scales. Rather, anglers respond uniquely to waterbody diversity and therefore substitute waterbodies may be dispersed throughout the landscape. Creating boat access, for example could yield unintended consequences for a particular angler group and cause local and regional shifts in angler behaviour. Evaluating appropriate management options will require a cross‐scale monitoring approach that captures angler heterogeneity and waterbody diversity at multiple scales. Recreational fisheries are traditionally managed at local scales, but more effective management could be achieved using a cross‐scale approach. To do this, we must first understand how local processes scale up to influence landscape patterns between anglers and resources. We highlight how population‐based synchrony methods, used in conjunction with a complex‐adaptive‐systems framework, can reveal emergent spatial properties within social‐ecological systems such as recreational fisheries. Herein, we quantified the level of spatial synchrony in angler behaviour, defined the relationship between angler synchrony and distance among waterbodies, and highlighted social‐ecological attributes contributing to these patterns. We leveraged a 111 waterbody‐year (34 waterbodies, 5‐year collection period) recreational fisheries dataset from Nebraska, USA to address these objectives. Intra‐annual patterns in angler behaviour were moderately synchronous across large spatial scales and predominately unrelated to distance among waterbodies. Large‐scale synchronous patterns in angler behaviour emerged from local‐scale interactions between angler heterogeneity and waterbody diversity. Spatial synchrony in angler behaviour is an emergent property that resulted from local‐level processes that scaled up to form large‐scale patterns. We posit that angler

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2022

Surface elevation change dynamics in coastal marshes along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Anticipating effects of rising sea-level and intensifying hurricanes

Accelerated sea-level rise and intensifying hurricanes highlight the need to better understand surface elevation change in coastal wetlands. We used the surface elevation table-marker horizon approach to measure surface elevation change in 14 coastal marshes along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, within five National Wildlife Refuges in Texas (USA). During the 2014–2019 study period, the mean rate of surface elevation change was 1.96 ± 0.87 mm yr −1 (range: -1.57 to 8.37 mm yr −1 ). Vertical accretion rates varied due to landscape proximity relative to sediment inputs from Hurricane Harvey. At most sites, vertical accretion offset subsurface losses due to shallow subsidence. However, net elevation gains were often lower than recent relative sea-level rise rates, and much lower than rates expected under future sea-level rise. Because these marshes are not keeping pace with recent sea-level rise, it is unlikely that they will be able to adjust to future accelerations. Climate change threatens these Texas coastal wetlands and the ecological and economic services they provide. By characterizing the status and prospective loss of coastal marshes, our study reinforces the value of identifying local and landscape-level adaptation mechanisms that can enhance the ability of coastal marshes to adapt to threats posed by climate change.

Texas↗

USGS2007

Hydrologic connectivity and the contribution of stream headwaters to ecological integrity at regional scales

Cumulatively, headwater streams contribute to maintaining hydrologic connectivity and ecosystem integrity at regional scales. Hydrologic connectivity is the water-mediated transport of matter, energy and organisms within or between elements of the hydrologic cycle. Headwater streams compose over two-thirds of total stream length in a typical river drainage and directly connect the upland and riparian landscape to the rest of the stream ecosystem. Altering headwater streams, e.g., by channelization, diversion through pipes, impoundment and burial, modifies fluxes between uplands and downstream river segments and eliminates distinctive habitats. The large-scale ecological effects of altering headwaters are amplified by land uses that alter runoff and nutrient loads to streams, and by widespread dam construction on larger rivers (which frequently leaves free-flowing upstream portions of river systems essential to sustaining aquatic biodiversity). We discuss three examples of large-scale consequences of cumulative headwater alteration. Downstream eutrophication and coastal hypoxia result, in part, from agricultural practices that alter headwaters and wetlands while increasing nutrient runoff. Extensive headwater alteration is also expected to lower secondary productivity of river systems by reducing stream-system length and trophic subsidies to downstream river segments, affecting aquatic communities and terrestrial wildlife that utilize aquatic resources. Reduced viability of freshwater biota may occur with cumulative headwater alteration, including for species that occupy a range of stream sizes but for which headwater streams diversify the network of interconnected populations or enhance survival for particular life stages. Developing a more predictive understanding of ecological patterns that may emerge on regional scales as a result of headwater alterations will require studies focused on components and pathways that connect headwaters to river, coastal and terrestrial ecosystems. Linkages between headwaters and downstream ecosystems cannot be discounted when addressing large-scale issues such as hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico and global losses of biodiversity.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2010

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

Open-File Report↗