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Volcanic plume height measured by seismic waves based on a mechanical model

In August 2008 an unmonitored, largely unstudied Aleutian volcano, Kasatochi, erupted catastrophically. Here we use seismic data to infer the height of large eruptive columns such as those of Kasatochi based on a combination of existing fluid and solid mechanical models. In so doing, we propose a connection between a common, observable, short-period seismic wave amplitude to the physics of an eruptive column. To construct a combined model, we estimate the mass ejection rate of material from the vent on the basis of the plume height, assuming that the height is controlled by thermal buoyancy for a continuous plume. Using the estimated mass ejection rate, we then derive the equivalent vertical force on the Earth through a momentum balance. Finally, we calculate the far-field surface waves resulting from the vertical force. The model performs well for recent eruptions of Kasatochi and Augustine volcanoes if v , the velocity of material exiting the vent, is 120-230 m s -1 . The consistency between the seismically inferred and measured plume heights indicates that in these cases the far-field ~1 s seismic energy radiated by fluctuating flow in the volcanic jet during the eruption is a useful indicator of overall mass ejection rates. Thus, use of the model holds promise for characterizing eruptions and evaluating ash hazards to aircraft in real time on the basis of far-field short-period seismic data. This study emphasizes the need for better measurements of eruptive plume heights and a more detailed understanding of the full spectrum of seismic energy radiated coeruptively.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Infrasonic harmonic tremor and degassing bursts from Halema'uma'u Crater, Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

The formation, evolution, collapse, and subsequent resurrection of a vent within Halema'uma'u Crater, Kilauea Volcano, produced energetic and varied degassing signals recorded by a nearby infrasound array between 2008 and early 2009. After 25 years of quiescence, a vent-clearing explosive burst on 19 March 2008 produced a clear, complex acoustic signal. Near-continuous harmonic infrasonic tremor followed this burst until 4 December 2008, when a period of decreased degassing occurred. The tremor spectra suggest volume oscillation and reverberation of a shallow gas-filled cavity beneath the vent. The dominant tremor peak can be sustained through Helmholtz oscillations of the cavity, while the secondary tremor peak and overtones are interpreted assuming acoustic resonance. The dominant tremor frequency matches the oscillation frequency of the gas emanating from the vent observed by video. Tremor spectra and power are also correlated with cavity geometry and dynamics, with the cavity depth estimated at ~219 m and volume ~3 x 10 6 m 3 in November 2008. Over 21 varied degassing bursts were observed with extended burst durations and frequency content consistent with a transient release of gas exciting the cavity into resonance. Correlation of infrasound with seismicity suggests an open system connecting the atmosphere to the seismic excitation process at depth. Numerous degassing bursts produced very long period (0.03-0.1 Hz) infrasound, the first recorded at Kilauea, indicative of long-duration atmospheric accelerations. Kilauea infrasound appears controlled by the exsolution of gas from the magma, and the interaction of this gas with the conduits and cavities confining it.

Hawai'i

Stress transfer among en echelon and opposing thrusts and tear faults: Triggering caused by the 2003 M w = 6.9 Zemmouri, Algeria, earthquake

The essential features of stress interaction among earthquakes on en echelon thrusts and tear faults were investigated, first through idealized examples and then by study of thrust faulting in Algeria. We calculated coseismic stress changes caused by the 2003 M w = 6.9 Zemmouri earthquake, finding that a large majority of the Zemmouri afterslip sites were brought several bars closer to Coulomb failure by the coseismic stresses, while the majority of aftershock nodal planes were brought closer to failure by an average of ~2 bars. Further, we calculated that the shallow portions of the adjacent Thenia tear fault, which sustained ~0.25 m slip, were brought >2 bars closer to failure. We calculated that the Coulomb stress increased by 1.5 bars on the deeper portions of the adjacent Boumerdes thrust, which lies just 10–20 km from the city of Algiers; both the Boumerdes and Thenia faults were illuminated by aftershocks. Over the next 6 years, the entire south dipping thrust system extending 80 km to the southwest experienced an increased rate of seismicity. The stress also increased by 0.4 bar on the east Sahel thrust fault west of the Zemmouri rupture. Algiers suffered large damaging earthquakes in A.D. 1365 and 1716 and is today home to 3 million people. If these shocks occurred on the east Sahel fault and if it has a ~2 mm/yr tectonic loading rate, then enough loading has accumulated to produce a M w = 6.6–6.9 shock today. Thus, these potentially lethal faults need better understanding of their slip rate and earthquake history.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Postseismic relaxation following the 1994 M w 6.7 Northridge earthquake, southern California

We have reexamined the postearthquake deformation of a 65 km long linear array of 11 geodetic monuments extending north–south across the rupture (reverse slip on a blind thrust dipping 40°S–20°W) associated with the 1994 M w 6.7 Northridge earthquake. That array was surveyed frequently in the interval from 4 to 2650 days after the earthquake. The velocity of each of the monuments over the interval 100–2650 days postearthquake appears to be constant. Moreover, the profile of those velocities along the length of the array is very similar to a preearthquake velocity profile for a nearby, similarly oriented array. We take this to indicate that significant postseismic relaxation is evident only in the first 100 days postseismic and that the subsequent linear trend is typical of the interseismic interval. The postseismic relaxation (postseismic displacement less displacement that would have occurred at the preseismic velocity) is found to be almost wholly parallel (N70°W) to the nearby (40 km) San Andreas Fault with only negligible relaxation in the direction of coseismic slip (N20°E) on the Northridge rupture. We suggest that the N70°W relaxation is caused by aseismic, right-lateral slip at depth on the San Andreas Fault, excess slip presumably triggered by the Northridge rupture. Finally, using the Dieterich (1994) stress-seismicity relation, we show that return to the preseismic deformation rate within 100 days following the earthquake could be consistent with the cumulative number of M > 2.5 earthquakes observed following the main shock.

California

Toward a consistent model for strain accrual and release for the New Madrid Seismic Zone, central United States

At the heart of the conundrum of seismogenesis in the New Madrid Seismic Zone is the apparently substantial discrepancy between low strain rate and high recent seismic moment release. In this study we revisit the magnitudes of the four principal 1811–1812 earthquakes using intensity values determined from individual assessments from four experts. Using these values and the grid search method of Bakun and Wentworth (1997), we estimate magnitudes around 7.0 for all four events, values that are significantly lower than previously published magnitude estimates based on macroseismic intensities. We further show that the strain rate predicted from postglacial rebound is sufficient to produce a sequence with the moment release of one M max 6.8 every 500 years, a rate that is much lower than previous estimates of late Holocene moment release. However, M w 6.8 is at the low end of the uncertainty range inferred from analysis of intensities for the largest 1811–1812 event. We show that M w 6.8 is also a reasonable value for the largest main shock given a plausible rupture scenario. One can also construct a range of consistent models that permit a somewhat higher M max , with a longer average recurrence rate. It is thus possible to reconcile predicted strain and seismic moment release rates with alternative models: one in which 1811–1812 sequences occur every 500 years, with the largest events being M max ∼6.8, or one in which sequences occur, on average, less frequently, with Mmax of ∼7.0. Both models predict that the late Holocene rate of activity will continue for the next few to 10 thousand years.

New Madrid Seismic Zone

Subevents of long-period seismicity: implications for hydrothermal dynamics during the 2004-2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens

One of the most striking aspects of seismicity during the 2004–2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens (MSH) was the precise regularity in occurrence of repetitive long-period (LP) or “drumbeat” events over sustained time periods. However, this precise regularity was not always observed, and at times the temporal occurrence of LP events became more random. In addition, accompanying the dominant LP class of events during the 2004–2008 MSH eruption, there was a near-continuous, randomly occurring series of smaller seismic events. These subevents are not always simply small-amplitude versions of the dominant LP class of events but appear instead to result from a separate random process only loosely coupled to the main LP source mechanism. We present an analysis of the interevent time and amplitude distributions of the subevents, using waveform cross correlation to separate LP events from the subevents. We also discuss seismic tremor that accompanied the 8 March 2005 phreatic explosion event at MSH. This tremor consists of a rapid succession of LPs and subevents triggered during the explosion, in addition to broadband noise from the sustained degassing. Immediately afterward, seismicity returned to the pre-explosion occurrence pattern. This triggering in relation to the rapid ejection of steam from the system, and subsequent return to pre-explosion seismicity, suggests that both seismic event types originated in a region of the subsurface hydrothermal system that was (1) in contact with the reservoir feeding the 8 March 2005 phreatic explosion but (2) not destroyed or drained by the explosion event. Finally, we discuss possible thermodynamic conditions in a pressurized hydrothermal crack that could give rise to seismicity. Pressure drop estimates for typical LP events are not generally large enough to perturb pure water in a shallow hydrothermal crack into an unstable state. However, dissolved volatiles such as CO 2 may lead to a more unstable system, increasing the seismogenic potential of a hydrothermal crack subject to rapid heat flux. The interaction of hydrothermal and magmatic systems beneath MSH in 2004–2008 thus appears able to explain a wide range of observed phenomena, including subevents, LP events, larger (M d > 2) events, and phreatic explosions.

Washington

Frictional strengths of talc-serpentine and talc-quartz mixtures

Talc is a constituent of faults in a variety of settings, and it may be an effective weakening agent depending on its abundance and distribution within a fault. We conducted frictional strength experiments under hydrothermal conditions to determine the effect of talc on the strengths of synthetic gouges of lizardite and antigorite serpentinites and of quartz. Small amounts of talc weaken serpentinite gouges substantially more than predicted by simple weight averaging. In comparison, mixtures of quartz and talc show a linear trend of strength reduction at talc concentrations 15 wt % and enhanced weakening at higher concentrations. All of the strength data are fit by a modified version of the Reuss mixing law that allows for the dominance of one mineral over the other. The difference in the behavior of serpentinite-talc and quartz-talc mixtures at low talc concentrations is a reflection of their different textures. Lizardite, antigorite, and talc all have platy habits, and displacement within gouges composed of these minerals is localized to narrow shears along which the platy grains have rotated into alignment with the shear surfaces. The shears in the mixed phyllosilicate gouges maximize the proportion of the weaker mineral within them. When mixed with a strong, rounded mineral such as quartz, some minimum concentration of talc is needed to form connected pathways that enhance strength reductions. The typical development of talc by the reaction of Si-rich fluids with serpentinite or dolomite would tend to localize its occurrence in a natural fault and result in enhanced weakening.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Multiplets: Their behavior and utility at dacitic and andesitic volcanic centers

Multiplets, or groups of earthquakes with similar waveforms, are commonly observed at volcanoes, particularly those exhibiting unrest. Using triggered seismic data from the 1980-1986 Mount St. Helens (MSH) eruption, we have constructed a catalog of multiplet occurrence. Our analysis reveals that the occurrence of multiplets is related, at least in part, to the viscosity of the magma. We also constructed catalogs of multiplet occurrence using continuous seismic data from the 2004 eruption at MSH and 2007 eruption at Bezymianny Volcano, Russia. Prior to explosions at MSH in 2004 and Bezymianny in 2007, the multiplet proportion of total seismicity (MPTS) declined, while the average amplitudes and standard deviations of the average amplitude increased. The life spans of multiplets (time between the first and last event) were also shorter prior to explosions than during passive lava extrusion. Dome-forming eruptions that include a partially solidified plug, like MSH (1983-1986 and 2004-2008), often possess multiplets with longer life spans and MPTS values exceeding 50%. Conceptually, the relatively unstable environment prior to explosions is characterized by large and variable stress gradients brought about by rapidly changing overpressures within the conduit. We infer that such complex stress fields affect the number of concurrent families, MPTS, average amplitude, and standard deviation of the amplitude of the multiplets. We also argue that multiplet detection may be an important new monitoring tool for determining the timing of explosions and in forecasting the type of eruption.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Seismically observed seiching in the Panama Canal

A large portion of the seismic noise spectrum is dominated by water wave energy coupled into the solid Earth. Distinct mechanisms of water wave induced ground motions are distinguished by their spectral content. For example, cultural noise is generally <1 s period, microseisms dominate the seismic spectrum from periods of 2 to 20 s, and the Earth's "hum" is in the range of 50 to 600 s. We show that in a large lake in the Panama Canal there is an additional source of long-period noise generated by standing water waves, seiches, induced by disturbances such as passing ships and wind pressure. We compare seismic waveforms to water level records and relate these observations to changes in local tilt and gravity due to an oscillating seiche. The methods and observations discussed in this paper provide a first step toward quantifying the impact of water inundation as recorded by seismometers. This type of quantified understanding of water inundation will help in future estimates of similar phenomena such as the seismic observations of tsunami impact. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

The magnitude distribution of earthquakes near Southern California faults

We investigate seismicity near faults in the Southern California Earthquake Center Community Fault Model. We search for anomalously large events that might be signs of a characteristic earthquake distribution. We find that seismicity near major fault zones in Southern California is well modeled by a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, with no evidence of characteristic earthquakes within the resolution limits of the modern instrumental catalog. However, the b value of the locally observed magnitude distribution is found to depend on distance to the nearest mapped fault segment, which suggests that earthquakes nucleating near major faults are likely to have larger magnitudes relative to earthquakes nucleating far from major faults. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Elevated gas hydrate saturation within silt and silty clay sediments in the Shenhu area, South China Sea

Gas hydrate saturations were estimated using five different methods in silt and silty clay foraminiferous sediments from drill hole SH2 in the South China Sea. Gas hydrate saturations derived from observed pore water chloride values in core samples range from 10 to 45% of the pore space at 190–221 m below seafloor (mbsf). Gas hydrate saturations estimated from resistivity (R t ) using wireline logging results are similar and range from 10 to 40.5% in the pore space. Gas hydrate saturations were also estimated by P wave velocity obtained during wireline logging by using a simplified three-phase equation (STPE) and effective medium theory (EMT) models. Gas hydrate saturations obtained from the STPE velocity model (41.0% maximum) are slightly higher than those calculated with the EMT velocity model (38.5% maximum). Methane analysis from a 69 cm long depressurized core from the hydrate-bearing sediment zone indicates that gas hydrate saturation is about 27.08% of the pore space at 197.5 mbsf. Results from the five methods show similar values and nearly identical trends in gas hydrate saturations above the base of the gas hydrate stability zone at depths of 190 to 221 mbsf. Gas hydrate occurs within units of clayey slit and silt containing abundant calcareous nannofossils and foraminifer, which increase the porosities of the fine-grained sediments and provide space for enhanced gas hydrate formation. In addition, gas chimneys, faults, and fractures identified from three-dimensional (3-D) and high-resolution two-dimensional (2-D) seismic data provide pathways for fluids migrating into the gas hydrate stability zone which transport methane for the formation of gas hydrate. Sedimentation and local canyon migration may contribute to higher gas hydrate saturations near the base of the stability zone.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Introduction to special section on phenomenology, underlying processes, and hazard implications of aseismic slip and nonvolcanic tremor

This paper introduces the special section on the "phenomenology, underlying processes, and hazard implications of aseismic slip and nonvolcanic tremor" by highlighting key results of the studies published in it. Many of the results indicate that seismic and aseismic manifestations of slow slip reflect transient shear displacements on the plate interface, with the outstanding exception of northern Cascadia where tremor sources have been located on and above the plate interface (differing models of the plate interface there also need to be reconciled). Slow slip phenomena appear to result from propagating deformation that may develop with persistent gaps and segment boundaries. Results add to evidence that when tectonic deformation is relaxed via slow slip, most relaxation occurs aseismically but with seismic signals providing higher-resolution proxies for the aseismic slip. Instead of two distinct slip modes as suggested previously, lines between "fast" and "slow" slip more appropriately may be described as blurry zones. Results reported also show that slow slip sources do not coincide with a specific temperature or metamorphic reaction. Their associations with zones of high conductivity and low shear to compressional wave velocity ratios corroborate source models involving pore fluid pressure buildup and release. These models and spatial anticorrelations between earthquake and tremor activity also corroborate a linkage between slow slip and frictional properties transitional between steady state and stick-slip. Finally, this special section highlights the benefits of global and multidisciplinary studies, which demonstrate that slow phenomena are not confined to beneath the locked zone but exist in many settings.

Journal of Geophysical Research

A reevaluation of the Pallett Creek earthquake chronology based on new AMS radiocarbon dates, San Andreas fault, California

The Pallett Creek paleoseismic record occupies a keystone position in most attempts to develop rupture histories for the southern San Andreas fault. Previous estimates of earthquake ages at Pallett Creek were determined by decay counting radiocarbon methods. That method requires large samples which can lead to unaccounted sources of uncertainty in radiocarbon ages because of the heterogeneous composition of organic layers. In contrast, accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates may be obtained from small samples that have known carbon sources and also allow for a more complete sampling of the section. We present 65 new AMS radiocarbon dates that span nine ground‐rupturing earthquakes at Pallett Creek. Overall, the AMS dates are similar to and reveal no dramatic bias in the conventional dates. For many layers, however, individual charcoal samples were younger than the conventional dates, leading to earthquake ages that are overall slightly younger than previously reported. New earthquake ages are determined by Bayesian refinement of the layer ages based on stratigraphic ordering and sedimentological constraints. The new chronology is more regular than previously published records in large part due to new samples constraining the age of event R. The closed interval from event C to 1857 has a mean recurrence of 135 years ( σ = 83.2 years) and a quasiperiodic coefficient of variation (COV) of 0.61. We show that the new dates and resultant earthquake chronology have a stronger effect on COV than the specific membership of this long series and dating precision improvements from sedimentation rates.

California

The Augustine magmatic system as revealed by seismic tomography and relocated earthquake hypocenters from 1994 through 2009

We incorporate 14 years of earthquake data from the Alaska Volcano Observatory with data from a 1975 controlled‐source seismic experiment to obtain the three‐dimensional P and S wave velocity structure and the first high‐precision earthquake locations at Augustine Volcano to be calculated in a fully three‐dimensional velocity model. Velocity tomography shows two main features beneath Augustine: a narrow, high‐velocity column beneath the summit, extending from ∼2 km depth to the surface, and elevated velocities on the south flank. Our relocation results allow a thorough analysis of the spatio‐temoral patterns of seismicity and the relationship to the magmatic and eruptive activity. Background seismicity is centered beneath the summit at an average depth of 0.6 km above sea level. In the weeks leading to the January 2006 eruption of Augustine, seismicity focused on a NW‐SE line along the trend of an inflating dike. A series of drumbeat earthquakes occurred in the early weeks of the eruption, indicating further magma transport through the same dike system. During the six months following the onset of the eruption, the otherwise quiescent region 1 to 5 km below sea level centered beneath the summit became seismically active with two groups of earthquakes, differentiated by frequency content. The deep longer‐period earthquakes occurred during the eruption and are interpreted as resulting from the movement of magma toward the summit, and the post‐eruptive shorter‐period earthquakes may be due to the relaxation of an emptied magma tube. The seismicity subsequently returned to its normal background rates and patterns.

Alaska

Hydrodynamics of a bathymetrically complex fringing coral reef embayment: Wave climate, in situ observations, and wave prediction

This paper examines the relationship between offshore wave climate and nearshore waves and currents at Hanalei Bay, Hawaii, an exposed bay fringed with coral reefs. Analysis of both offshore in situ data and numerical hindcasts identify the predominance of two wave conditions: a mode associated with local trade winds and an episodic pattern associated with distant source long-period swells. Analysis of 10 months of in situ data within the bay show that current velocities are up to an order of magnitude greater during long-period swell episodes than during trade wind conditions; overall circulation patterns are also fundamentally different. The current velocities are highly correlated with incident wave heights during the swell episodes, while they are not during the modal trade wind conditions. A phase-averaged wave model was implemented with the dual purpose of evaluating application to bathymetrically complex fringing reefs and to examine the propagation of waves into the nearshore in an effort to better explain the large difference in observed circulation during the two offshore wave conditions. The prediction quality of this model was poorer for the episodic condition than for the lower-energy mode, however, it illustrated how longer-period swells are preferentially refracted into the bay and make available far more nearshore wave energy to drive currents compared to waves during modal conditions. The highly episodic circulation, the nature of which is dependent on complex refraction patterns of episodic, long-period swell has implications for flushing and sediment dynamics for incised fringing reef-lined bays that characterize many high islands at low latitudes around the world.

Hawai'i

Wind-enhanced resuspension in the shallow waters of South San Francisco Bay: Mechanisms and potential implications for cohesive sediment transport

We investigated the driving forces of sediment dynamics at the shoals in South San Francisco Bay. Two stations were deployed along a line perpendicular to a 14 m deep channel, 1000 and 2000 m from the middle of the channel. Station depths were 2.59 and 2.19 m below mean lower low water, respectively. We used acoustic Doppler velocimeters for the simultaneous determination of current velocities, turbulence, sediment concentration and fluxes. Maximum current shear velocities were 0.015 m s −1 at the station further from the channel (closer to the shore) and 0.02 m s −1 at the station closer to the channel. Peak wave-induced shear velocities exceeded 0.015 m s −1 at both stations. Maximum sediment concentrations were around 30 g m −3 during calm periods (root mean square wave height <0.15 m). During wavy periods, sediment concentrations increased to 100 g m −3 and sediment fluxes were 5 times higher than in calm conditions (0.02 g m −2 s −1 versus >0.10 g m −2 s −1 ) at the station further from the channel 0.36 m above the bed. Closer to the channel, sediment concentrations and vertical fluxes due to wind wave resuspension were persistently lower (maximum concentrations around 50 g m −3 and maximum fluxes around 0.04 g m −2 s −1 ). Most resuspension events occurred during flood tides that followed wave events during low water. Although wave motions are able to resuspend sediment into the wave boundary layer at low tide, the observed large increases in sediment fluxes are due to the nonlinear interaction of wind waves and the tidal currents.

California

Sediment transport and deposition on a river-dominated tidal flat: An idealized model study

A 3-D hydrodynamic model is used to investigate how different size classes of river-derived sediment are transported, exported and trapped on an idealized, river-dominated tidal flat. The model is composed of a river channel flanked by sloping tidal flats, a configuration motivated by the intertidal region of the Skagit River mouth in Washington State, United States. It is forced by mixed tides and a pulse of freshwater and sediment with various settling velocities. In this system, the river not only influences stratification but also contributes a significant cross-shore transport. As a result, the bottom stress is strongly ebb-dominated in the channel because of the seaward advance of strong river flow as the tidal flats drain during ebbs. Sediment deposition patterns and mass budgets are sensitive to settling velocity. The lateral sediment spreading scales with an advective distance (settling time multiplied by lateral flow speed), thereby confining the fast settling sediment classes in the channel. Residual sediment transport is landward on the flats, because of settling lag, but is strongly seaward in the channel. The seaward transport mainly occurs during big ebbs and is controlled by a length scale ratio L d / X WL , where L d is a cross-shore advective distance (settling time multiplied by river outlet velocity), and X WL is the immersed cross-shore length of the intertidal zone. Sediment trapping requires L d / X WL < 1, leading to more trapping for the faster settling classes. Sensitivity studies show that including stratification and reducing tidal range both favor sediment trapping, whereas varying channel geometries and asymmetry of tides has relatively small impacts. Implications of the modeling results on the south Skagit intertidal region are discussed.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans