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Low-complexity floodplain inundation model performs well for ecological and management applications in a large river ecosystem

Flooding is a dominant physical process that drives the form and function of river-floodplain ecosystems. Efficiently characterizing flooding dynamics can be challenging, especially over geographically broad areas or at spatial and temporal scales relevant for ecosystem management activities. Here, we empirically evaluated a low-complexity geospatial model of floodplain inundation in six study segments of the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) by pairing spatially extensive, temporally limited and spatially limited, temporally extensive sampling designs. We found little evidence of systematic bias in model performance although discrepancies between model predictions and empirical data did occur locally. Assessments of model predictions revealed low segment-wide discrepancies of wetted extent under contrasting flow conditions and agreement for inundation event detection and duration. Model performance for predicting event frequency and duration was similar among sites expected to exhibit contrasting patterns of hydrologic connectivity with the main channel. Our results suggest that low-complexity models can efficiently characterize a critical physical process across geographically broad, complex river-floodplain ecosystems. Such tools have the potential for advancing scientific understanding of landscape-scale ecological patterns and for prioritizing management actions in large, complex river-floodplain ecosystems like the UMRS.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin

Feeding ecology and niche overlap of Lake Ontario offshore forage fish assessed with stable isotopes

The forage fish communities of the Laurentian Great Lakes continue to experience changes that have altered ecosystem structure, yet little is known about how they partition resources. Seasonal, spatial and body size variation in δ13C and δ15N was used to assess isotopic niche overlap and resource and habitat partitioning among the five common offshore Lake Ontario forage fish species (n = 2037) [Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), Rainbow Smelt (Osmerus mordax), Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus), and Deepwater (Myoxocephalus thompsonii) and Slimy (Cottus cognatus) Sculpin]. Round Goby had the largest isotopic niche (6.1‰2, standard ellipse area (SEAC)), followed by Alewife (3.4‰2) while Rainbow Smelt, Slimy Sculpin and Deepwater Sculpin had the smallest and similar niche size (1.7-1.8‰2), with only the Sculpin species showing significant isotopic niche overlap (>63%). Stable isotopes in Alewife, Round Goby and Rainbow Smelt varied with location, season and size, but did not in the Sculpin spp. Lake Ontario forage fish species have partitioned food and habitat resources, and non-native Alewife and Round Goby have the largest isotopic niche, suggestive of a boarder ecological niche, and may contribute to their current high abundance.

Lake Ontario

Fish community change in Lake Superior, 1970-2000

Changes in Lake Superior's fish community are reviewed from 1970 to 2000. Lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) and lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ) stocks have increased substantially and may be approaching ancestral states. Lake herring ( Coregonus artedi ) have also recovered, but under sporadic recruitment. Contaminant levels have declined and are in equilibrium with inputs, but toxaphene levels are higher than in all other Great Lakes. Sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) control, harvest limits, and stocking fostered recoveries of lake trout and allowed establishment of small nonnative salmonine populations. Natural reproduction supports most salmonine populations, therefore further stocking is not required. Nonnative salmonines will likely remain minor components of the fish community. Forage biomass has shifted from exotic rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) to native species, and high predation may prevent their recovery. Introductions of exotics have increased and threaten the recovering fish community. Agencies have little influence on the abundance of forage fish or the major predator, siscowet lake trout, and must now focus on habitat protection and enhancement in nearshore areas and prevent additional species introductions to further restoration. Persistence of Lake Superior's native deepwater species is in contrast to other Great Lakes where restoration will be difficult in the absence of these ecologically important fishes.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Breeding bird response to cattle grazing of a cottonwood bottomland

We studied avian habitat relationships and the impact of grazing on breeding densities of selected migratory birds in a plains cottonwood ( Populus sargentii ) bottomland in northeastern Colorado. Five 16-ha plots served as controls and 5 were fenced and fall-grazed October-November 1982-84 following a season of pre-treatment study in the spring of 1982. We focused our analysis on bird species directly dependent on the grass-herb-shrub layer of vegetation for foraging, nesting, or both. The guild included house wren ( Troglodytes aedon ), brown thrasher ( Toxostoma rufum ), American robin ( Turdus migratorius ), common yellowthroat ( Geothlypis trichas ), yellow-breasted chat ( Icteria virens ), and rufous-sided towhee ( Pipilo erythropthalmus ). Moderate, late-fall grazing had no detectable impact on calculated densities of any of the 6 species, implying that proper seasonal grazing of a cottonwood floodplain is, at least initially (3 years), compatible with migratory bird use of a site for breeding. Habitat associations suggested that common yellowthroats and yellow-breasted chats were most unique and most likely to respond negatively to higher levels of grazing. We suggest that these latter 2 species are appropriate ecological indicators of the quality of ground-shrub vegetation as breeding bird habitats in lowland floodplains of the Great Plains.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Population characteristics and the potential suppression of common carp in Lake Spokane, Washington

Common Carp Cyprinus carpio is a nonnative species that often has deleterious effects on aquatic systems. As such, there is interest in suppressing nonnative Common Carp populations in areas where humans have introduced them. The objectives of this study were to 1) provide insight on efficient techniques for capturing Common Carp, 2) describe their population demographics and dynamics, 3) evaluate whether temperature and water elevation were related to growth and recruitment, and 4) develop an age-structured population model for evaluating different management scenarios of Common Carp removal in Lake Spokane, Washington. Catch rates of Common Carp varied among sampling gears with slightly higher catch rates in monofilament (mean ± SD; 15.5 ± 9.8 fish/net night) vs. multifilament (12.7 ± 7.3 fish/net night) gill nets. Catch rates of Common Carp with nighttime electrofishing (0.3 ± 0.4 fish/min) were higher than daytime electrofishing (0.1 ± 0.2 fish/min). Common Carp in Lake Spokane exhibited variable recruitment, rapid growth, large-length structure, high longevity (i.e., age 18 y), and low total annual mortality (17.0%). Air temperature was positively associated with annual growth increments ( R 2 ≤ 0.25). Neither air temperature nor water elevation was highly correlated ( R 2 ≤ 0.20) to recruitment of Common Carp. A Beverton–Holt yield-per-recruit model suggested that yield declined with increasing exploitation. Recruitment overfishing would occur at exploitation rates of 20–40% for all targeted minimum length categories (i.e., 150, 300, 450 mm) except 600 mm. Results from this study provide important information on the ecology of Common Carp that can be used to guide management efforts (e.g., suppression) in western systems.

Washington

Deepwater Program: Lophelia II, continuing ecological research on deep-sea corals and deep-reef habitats in the Gulf of Mexico

The deep sea is a rich environment composed of diverse habitat types. While deep-sea coral habitats have been discovered within each ocean basin, knowledge about the ecology of these habitats and associated inhabitants continues to grow. This report presents information and results from the Lophelia II project that examined deep-sea coral habitats in the Gulf of Mexico. The Lophelia II project focused on Lophelia pertusa habitats along the continental slope, at depths ranging from 300 to 1,000 meters. The chapters are authored by several scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, University of North Carolina Wilmington, and Florida State University who examined the community ecology (from microbes to fishes), deep-sea coral age, growth, and reproduction, and population connectivity of deep-sea corals and inhabitants. Data from these studies are presented in the chapters and appendixes of the report as well as in journal publications. This study was conducted by the Ecosystems Mission Area of the U.S. Geological Survey to meet information needs identified by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management.

Gulf of Mexico

Investing in citizen science can improve natural resource management and environmental protection

Citizen science has made substantive contributions to science for hundreds of years. More recently, it has contributed to many articles in peer-reviewed scientific journals and has influenced natural resource management and environmental protection decisions and policies across the nation. Over the last 10 years, citizen science—participation by the public in a scientific project—has seen explosive growth in the United States, particularly in ecology, the environmental sciences, and related fields of inquiry. In this report, we explore the current use of citizen science in natural resource and environmental science and decision making in the United States and describe the investments organizations might make to benefit from citizen science.

Issues in Ecology

Adaptive management for a turbulent future

The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate learning into management. ?? 2010 .

Journal of Environmental Management

Spatiotemporal pattern of interactions between an apex predator and sympatric species

Increases in apex predator abundance can influence the behavior of sympatric species, particularly when the available habitat and/or resources are limited. We assessed the temporal and spatiotemporal interactions between Florida panthers ( Puma concolor coryi ) and six focal sympatric species in South Florida, where Florida panther abundance has increased by more than 6-fold since the 1990’s. Using camera trap data, we quantified species’ diel activity patterns, temporal overlap, and time-to-encounter (i.e., time between consecutive visits of a Florida panther and a focal species and vice versa). The Florida panther and bobcat ( Lynx rufus ) displayed a nocturnal activity pattern; the black bear ( Ursus americanus ), white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ), wild boar ( Sus scrofa ), and wild turkey ( Meleagris gallopavo ) were mostly diurnal; and the raccoon ( Procyon lotor ) was cathemeral. Prey species and black bears minimized encounters with Florida panthers by being active during the day and displaying longer time-to-encounter, whereas Florida panthers visited a site after a prey species at higher probabilities than after competitor species, and were more likely to visit an elevated site or upland habitat. Our results suggest that interactions between Florida panthers and sympatric species in our study system are driven by species-specific behavioral responses. Gaining a better understanding of the crucial interactions driving species coexistence is important for a better understanding of the structure and function of ecological communities and help manage the potential expansion of the Florida panther into Central Florida.

Florida

The climate space of fire regimes in north-western North America

Aim. Studies of fire activity along environmental gradients have been undertaken, but the results of such studies have yet to be integrated with fire-regime analysis. We characterize fire-regime components along climate gradients and a gradient of human influence. Location. We focus on a climatically diverse region of north-western North America extending from northern British Columbia, Canada, to northern Utah and Colorado, USA. Methods. We used a multivariate framework to collapse 12 climatic variables into two major climate gradients and binned them into 73 discrete climate domains. We examined variation in fire-regime components (frequency, size, severity, seasonality and cause) across climate domains. Fire-regime attributes were compiled from existing databases and Landsat imagery for 1897 large fires. Relationships among the fire-regime components, climate gradients and human influence were examined through bivariate regressions. The unique contribution of human influence was also assessed. Results. A primary climate gradient of temperature and summer precipitation and a secondary gradient of continentality and winter precipitation in the study area were identified. Fire occupied a distinct central region of such climate space, within which fire-regime components varied considerably. We identified significant interrelations between fire-regime components of fire size, frequency, burn severity and cause. The influence of humans was apparent in patterns of burn severity and ignition cause. Main conclusions. Wildfire activity is highest where thermal and moisture gradients converge to promote fuel production, flammability and ignitions. Having linked fire-regime components to large-scale climate gradients, we show that fire regimes – like the climate that controls them – are a part of a continuum, expanding on models of varying constraints on fire activity. The observed relationships between fire-regime components, together with the distinct role of climatic and human influences, generate variation in biotic communities. Thus, future changes to climate may lead to ecological changes through altered fire regimes.

Journal of Biogeography

A dam passage performance standard model for American shad

Objectives for recovery of alosines commonly involve improving fish passage at dams during migration. However, a quantitative basis for dam passage performance standards is largely absent. We describe development of a stochastic life-history-based simulation model for American shad, Alosa sapidissima , to estimate effects of dam passage and migratory delay on abundance, spatial distribution of spawning adults, and demographic structuring in space and time. We used the Penobscot River, Maine, USA, as a case study to examine sensitivity of modeled population metrics and probability of achieving specific management goals to inputs. Spawner abundance and percentage of repeat spawners were most sensitive to survival and migration delay at dams, marine survival, and temperature cues for migratory events. Recovery objectives related to abundance and spatial distribution of spawners were achievable under multiple scenarios, but high rates of upstream and downstream passage were necessary. The simulation indicated trade-offs between upstream and downstream passage efficacy whereby increased downstream passage was required to maintain or increase population abundance in conjunction with increased upstream passage. This model provides a quantitative support tool for managers to inform ecologically based decisions about a suite of management scenarios to facilitate recovery and sustainability of diadromous fish populations.

Maine

Susceptibility of three stocks of pacific herring to viral hemorrhagic septicemia

Laboratory challenges using specific-pathogen-free Pacific herring Clupea pallasii from three distinct populations indicated that stock origin had no effect on susceptibility to viral hemorrhagic septicemia (VHS). All of the populations were highly susceptible to the disease upon initial exposure, with significantly greater cumulative mortalities occurring in the exposed treatment groups (56.3-64.3%) than in the unexposed control groups (0.8-9.0%). Interstock differences in cumulative mortality were not significant. The virus loads in the tissues of fish experiencing mortality were 10-10,000 times higher during the acute phase of the epizootics (day 13 postexposure) than during the recovery phase (days 30-42). Survivors of the epizootics were refractory to subsequent VHS, with reexposure of VHS survivors resulting in significantly less cumulative mortality (1.2-4.0%) than among positive controls (38.1-64.4%); interstock differences in susceptibility did not occur after reexposure. These results indicate that data from experiments designed to understand the ecology of VHS virus in a given stock of Pacific herring are broadly applicable to stocks throughout the northeastern Pacific.

Journal of Aquatic Animal Health

A guide to Bayesian model selection for ecologists

The steady upward trend in the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in ecological research has made it clear that both approaches to inference are important for modern analysis of models and data. However, in teaching Bayesian methods and in working with our research colleagues, we have noticed a general dissatisfaction with the available literature on Bayesian model selection and multimodel inference. Students and researchers new to Bayesian methods quickly find that the published advice on model selection is often preferential in its treatment of options for analysis, frequently advocating one particular method above others. The recent appearance of many articles and textbooks on Bayesian modeling has provided welcome background on relevant approaches to model selection in the Bayesian framework, but most of these are either very narrowly focused in scope or inaccessible to ecologists. Moreover, the methodological details of Bayesian model selection approaches are spread thinly throughout the literature, appearing in journals from many different fields. Our aim with this guide is to condense the large body of literature on Bayesian approaches to model selection and multimodel inference and present it specifically for quantitative ecologists as neutrally as possible. We also bring to light a few important and fundamental concepts relating directly to model selection that seem to have gone unnoticed in the ecological literature. Throughout, we provide only a minimal discussion of philosophy, preferring instead to examine the breadth of approaches as well as their practical advantages and disadvantages. This guide serves as a reference for ecologists using Bayesian methods, so that they can better understand their options and can make an informed choice that is best aligned with their goals for inference.

Ecological Monographs

Temporal variation in survival and recovery rates of lesser scaup: A response

We recently analyzed long-term (1951–2011) continental band-recovery data from lesser scaup ( Aythya affinis ) and demonstrated that harvest rates declined through time, but annual survival rates exhibited no such trends; moreover, annual harvest and survival rates were uncorrelated for all age-sex classes. We therefore concluded that declining fecundity was most likely responsible for recent population declines, rather than changes in harvest or survival. Lindberg et al. ( 2017 ) critiqued our conclusions, arguing that we did little more than fail to reject a null hypothesis of compensatory mortality, postulated ecologically unrealistic changes in fecundity, and failed to give sufficient consideration to additive harvest mortality. Herein, we re-summarize our original evidence indicating that harvest has been compensatory, or at most weakly additive, and demonstrate that our analysis had sufficient power to detect strongly additive mortality if it occurred. We further demonstrate that our conclusions were not confounded by population size, band loss, or individual heterogeneity, as suggested by Lindberg et al. ( 2017 ), and we provide additional support for our conjecture that low fecundity played a major role in declining scaup populations during 1983–2006. We therefore reiterate our original management recommendations: given low harvest rates and lack of demonstrable effect on scaup survival, harvest regulations could return to more liberal frameworks, and waterfowl biologists should work together to continue banding lesser scaup and use these data to explore alternative hypotheses to identify the true ecological causes of population change, given that it is unlikely to be excessive harvest.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Book review: Spatial capture-recapture

Understanding how animals use space is a vital aspect of conservation planning and wildlife management. Technological developments (e.g., increased computer power and desktop geographic information system [GIS] applications) are bringing the ability to analyze spatial data sets to the individual biologist. Therefore, it is not surprising that methodologies have been developed to incorporate space into capture-recapture models, which are some of the most fundamental models in the field of wildlife ecology. Spatial Capture-Recapture (hereafter SCR) is a timely and informative contribution that summarizes the history and motivation behind SCR models, in addition to providing details of the methodological framework that allows the reader to develop and customize SCR models to address their own ecological questions. Review info: Spatial Capture-Recapture. By J. Andrew Royle, Richard B. Chandler, Rahel Sollmann, and Beth Gardner, 2014. ISBN: 978-0124059399, 577 pp.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Factors influencing egg thiamine concentrations of Lake Ontario lake trout: 2019–2020

In the Great Lakes region, thiamine deficiency is considered a recruitment bottleneck for lake trout Salvelinus namaycush and has been correlated with the consumption of non-native alewife Alosa pseudoharengus . While alewife, the most abundant forage fish in Lake Ontario, are the predominant prey for lake trout, they also consume benthic prey such as round goby Neogobius melanostomus . Because variation in the proportion of alewife in lake trout diets is linked to variation in egg thiamine concentrations, understanding how factors such as region of capture and hatchery-strain of lake trout influence diet, are key to understanding the patterns of variation in egg thiamine concentrations observed in this species. With recent increases in natural recruitment of lake trout being observed in the western region of the lake, understanding if egg thiamine is a potential driver is crucial to the rehabilitation of lake trout. In this study, we evaluated egg thiamine concentrations in lake trout during 2019–2020. We found no significant difference in egg thiamine concentrations among regions. However, a stocked Lake Superior deepwater morphotype (Superior Klondike Wild – SKW) showed significantly higher egg thiamine concentrations compared to the lean morphotype including Seneca (SEN) and Lake Champlain Domestic (LCD) strains. An analysis of fatty acid signatures of each hatchery-strain suggested that the SKW strain consumed a higher proportion of round goby than lean strains. Overall, these results suggest that morphotypic differences in the feeding ecology of lake trout can result in biochemical changes which may influence the effectiveness of restoration efforts.

Lake Ontario

Analysis of ecological context for identifying vegetation and animal conservation planning foci: An example from the arid South-western USA

In developing conservation strategies, it is important to maximize effects of conservation within a specified land tract and to maximize conservation effects on surrounding area (ecological context). The authors proposed two criteria to select biotic entities for conservation foci: (1) the relative occurrence of fauna or flora in a tract is greater than that of an ecological context region; and (2) occurrence of the fauna or flora is relatively limited in the ecological context region. Using extensive spatial data on vegetation and wildlife habitat distribution, the authors identified strategic vegetation and fauna conservation foci for the 400 000 ha Fort Bliss military reservation in New Mexico and Texas relative to a 164 km radius ecological context region intersecting seven ecological zones and the predicted habitat distribution of 616 animal species. The authors set two specific criteria: (1) predicted area of a species' occurrence is <50% of the ecological context region; and (2) percentage of Fort Bliss intersecting the species' or vegetation community predicted areas in the ecological context region is >5% (Fort Bliss is 4.2% of the region). These criteria selected one vegetation class and 40 animal species. Further, these vegetation and animal foci were primarily located in two areas of Fort Bliss. Sensitivity analyses with other analytical radii corroborated the context radius used. Conservation of the two areas and associated taxa will maximize the contribution of Fort Bliss's conservation efforts in its ecological proximity. This relatively simple but information-rich process represents economical and defensible preliminary contextual analysis for detailed conservation planning.

Journal of Environmental Planning and Management

Interspecific effects of invasive wild pigs (Sus scrofa) on native nine-banded armadillos (Dasypus novemcinctus)

Biological invasions pose significant risks to ecosystems and native species. Wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) are a highly detrimental invasive species in North America, directly and indirectly affecting native species. Co-occurrence of wild pigs and native species may lead to interspecific interactions that alter ecological communities. Accordingly, we investigated spatial and temporal factors influencing detection and occupancy of Eurasian Wild Pig and Nine-banded Armadillo ( Dasypus novemcinctus ) before examining interspecific effects. We analyzed camera-trap data collected from August to September 2021 using a hierarchical modeling framework to estimate detection and occupancy of both species individually (single-species analyses) and concurrently (conditional co-occurrence analyses). We observed higher Wild Pig detection rates and space use in late summer and in areas with greater riparian cover, respectively. Armadillo detection increased linearly throughout our sampling season and in response to precipitation. Moreover, armadillo detection was 3.5 to 5.1× higher at sites used by wild pigs, regardless of whether wild pigs were detected during a survey period. Occupancy of armadillo was best explained by a quadratic trend in site elevation but did not depend on the presence of wild pigs. Our results indicate that wild pigs may influence armadillo detection (or site-use intensity), but not occupancy, therefore revealing nuanced interspecific interactions. Between species, we observed high overlap in diel activity but significantly different activity peaks, with armadillos being strictly nocturnal and wild pigs being crepuscular but with more cathemeral activity, suggesting that fine-scale temporal partitioning may have occurred. Our results provide insights into the influence of a large-bodied and destructive invasive species (Wild Pig) on a smaller, ecologically important native species (Nine-banded Armadillo).

Oklahoma