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Arctic summary report: Outer Continental Shelf and onshore oil and gas activities and impacts in the Arctic : a summmary report, October 1981

Due to the amount of Federal and State oil and gas activity in the Arctic subregion and the need for comprehensive planning, State and local officials requested coverage of all oil and gas activity in the area. The first lease sale of offshore lands in the Beaufort Sea was held by the State of Alaska in 1969. The leasing process for oil and gas exploration on the Beaufort Sea Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) began in April 1976 with the first Federal lease sale in the subregion (Joint Federal/State Beaufort Sea Lease Sale) held in 1979. This sale was held jointly by the Department of the Interior and the State of Alaska because of conflicting jurisdictional claims to certain tracts in the sale area. The jurisdictional dispute will be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court, but a decision is not expected for several years. The joint sale was held on December 11, 1979. However, bids on the Federal tracts were not accepted until July 1980 because of litigation. Of the 117 tracts offered, 86 were leased as a result of the sale. Of these 86 tracts, 24 are federally managed and 62 are State-managed. Two exploration plans have been submitted for the federally managed joint lease sale (Sale BF) area. Both plans call for building a gravel island and exploratory drilling of several tracts, but no drilling permits have yet been filed. Three exploratory wells have been drilled on or into State-managed tracts. These include one well drilled directionally into Tract 75, one into Tract 76, and one well drilled from Challenge Island, a natural barrier island. Additional exploratory wells are planned for the 1981-82 drilling season on State-managed tracts. The next OCS sale in the Beaufort Sea, Lease Sale 71, is proposed for September 1982. The first two sales in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska are being planned for December 1981 and the late spring or early summer of 1982 and will involve a total of 2 million acres (809,200 hectares). In anticipation of future leasing, plans for geophysical surveys in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge are also being formulated. Four State lease sales have been held in the Arctic, in addition to the Joint Federal/State Lease Sale. These onshore sales have resulted in the leasing of lands on which a number of commercial discoveries have been made, including the discovery of the largest hydrocarbon accumulation in North America at Prudhoe Bay. Exploration, development, and production are continuing on these State lands. The State of Alaska has plans for three future lease sales in the Arctic to be held in the spring of 1982 and 1983 and the fall of 1984. Leasing and exploration are also under way on Arctic Slope Regional Corporation lands. Transportation systems in the Arctic have been developed to accommodate production on State lands. Some of the production from OCS tracts, as well as other Arctic lands, may be handled by the existing Trans-Alaska Pipeline System. However, a number of additional transportation strategies are being considered, including the Alaska Natural Gas Transportation System, additional oil pipelines, and tanker transport. The pace of oil and gas production in the Arctic will depend in part on the number and type of transportation modes available. The support bases at Prudhoe Bay are expected to be used to some extent for future activities on the OCS. However, expanded and new facilities will also be required, depending on the location of discoveries on the OCS and on other Arctic lands. The impacts resulting from OCS activities in the Arctic will be particularly important because of their contribution to the regionwide and cumulative impacts arising from Federal onshore, State, and regional corporation oil and gas exploration, development, and production in the Arctic.

Alaska↗

Assessment of the petroleum, coal, and geothermal resources of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) region

Approximately 85 percent of the land area of the ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) region is covered by basement rocks (igneous and highly metamorphosed rocks) or relatively thin layers of Paleozoic, Upper Precambrian, and 'Continental Intercalaire? sedimentary rocks. These areas have little or no petroleum potential. Areas of the ECOWAS region that have potential for petroleum production or potential for increased petroleum production include the narrow belt of sedimentary rocks that stretches along the continental margin from Mauritania to Nigeria and the Niger Delta and the Benue depression. The Senegal Basin, located on the continental margin of Mauritania, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, and Guinea, has been intensely explored by the oil industry and most of the larger structures onshore and on the shelf probably have been tested by drilling with little or no resulting commercial production. Unless basic ideas pertaining to the petroleum geology of the Senegal Basin are revised, future discoveries are expected to be limited to small fields overlooked by industry at a time when petroleum prices were low. On the continental shelf of Sierra Leone and the continental shelf of northeast and central Liberia, the sedimentary rocks are relatively thin, and industry has shown little interest in the area. On the continental rise of these countries, however, the sedimentary section, deposited in a complex fault-block system, increases in thickness. A renewal of industry interest in this deep-water area will probably follow further development of deep-water production technology. A recent oil discovery on the continental slope off the Ivory Coast is expected to spur further exploration offshore of southeastern Liberia, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo, and Benin. This relatively unexplored area in the Gulf of Guinea has good possibilities .for the discovery of giant oil fields. Nigeria's oil development from the Niger Delta may have peaked, as 13 of 14 giant oil fields were discovered prior to 1969 and the greatest number of fields were discovered in the period 1965 through 1967. Like delta regions in other parts of the world, individual oil fields of the Niger Delta are small to medium by world standards and future discoveries, therefore, are likely to reflect this reality. The natural gas resources of the Niger Delta, unlike its oil resources, are comparatively underdeveloped. Parts of the Benue depression in Nigeria and Niger could contain significant deposits of petroleum. The lower Benue depression, immediately north of the Niger Delta, has been extensively explored by drilling. Except for noncommercial discoveries of oil and gas and traces of oil and gas on the ground surface, the results of exploration in the lower Benue depression were negative. However, in the Lake Chad area of Chad and in southern Chad near the Central African Republic boundary, oil and gas discoveries were made just prior to the cessation of all drilling and exploration activity in early 1979. It is rumored that these discoveries may be large although little information is available. The relation between the two areas in Chad and their overall relation to the Benue depression is poorly understood; however, the possibility of thick sedimentary sections containing Cretaceous marine source rock and Tertiary reservoir beds-all contained within grabens in a highly faulted failed-arm system subjected to high heat flow--is attractive. Of the ECOWAS countries, only Nigeria and Niger produce coal commercially. Nigeria produces subbituminous coal from Paleocene-Maestrichtian and Maestrichtian (Late Cretaceous) age rocks of the Niger Delta region; reserves are estimated, on the basis of extensive drilling, to be 350 million tons (standard coal equivalent). In addition, lignite deposits of the Niger Delta appear to be large but have not been developed. Niger produces small amounts of coal used locally by uranium mine and mill operations from C

Open-File Report↗

Follow-up evaluation of fifteen geochemically anomalous areas and evaluation of four prospects in the Farah Garan-Kutam mineral belt, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

A follow-up exploration program was conducted in fifteen areas anomalous in precious and base metals within the Farah Garan-Kutam mineral belt, which forms part of a strongly deformed greenstone terrane in the southern part of the Proterozoic Arabian Shield. Using detailed chip-sample traverses, the program also evaluated four mineralized prospects, two of which (Raiah and Al Misadij prospects) had been recognized before the exploration program began; the additional two prospects (Kuhaym and Khathl prospects) were discovered during the course of the exploration program. Mineralized rock discovered during the exploration program consists of three types: (1) precious- and base-metal occurrences associated with large, lenticular, quartz-veined dolomitic bodies interpreted to be submarine exhalative deposits; the highest metal-concentration values are associated with silicified shear zones within the dolomite, which commonly were the sites of ancient mines; (2) precious- and base-metal mineralization associated with several small, isolated quartz veins scattered throughout the mineral belt; and (3) zones (several kilometers long and several hundred meters wide, with long axes oriented parallel to foliation) of variably silicified and pyritized greenstone and quartz-sericite phyllite; extensively dolomitized rock generally occurs in a zone surrounding the silicified and pyritized rock. Grades and (or) tonnages of all occurrences discovered during the exploration program are low the silicified and pyritized zones are entirely barren of base or precious metals-and no further work on them is recommended. The only significant mineralization discovered within the study area is located at the Raiah prospect, where a silicified shear zone (about 1 m wide) in lenticular exhalative dolomite body, contains as much as 5 ppm Au, 85 ppm Ag, 1.1 percent Cu, 2.6 percent Pb, and 10.7 percent Zn. Concentrations of the same elements within the surrounding dolomite are anomalously high, although they are significantly lower than values obtained in the shear zone. The inferred small tonnage of the deposit does not warrant further study.

Open-File Report↗

Color shaded-relief and surface-classification maps of the Fish Creek Area, Harrison Bay Quadrangle, Northern Alaska

The northeastern part of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) has become an area of active petroleum exploration during the past five years. Recent leasing and exploration drilling in the NPRA requires the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to manage and monitor a variety of surface activities that include seismic surveying, exploration drilling, oil-field development drilling, construction of oil-production facilities, and construction of pipelines and access roads. BLM evaluates a variety of permit applications, environmental impact studies, and other documents that require rapid compilation and analysis of data pertaining to surface and subsurface geology, hydrology, and biology. In addition, BLM must monitor these activities and assess their impacts on the natural environment. Timely and accurate completion of these land-management tasks requires elevation, hydrologic, geologic, petroleum-activity, and cadastral data, all integrated in digital formats at a higher resolution than is currently available in nondigital (paper) formats. To support these land-management tasks, a series of maps was generated from remotely sensed data in an area of high petroleum-industry activity (fig. 1). The maps cover an area from approximately latitude 70°00' N. to 70°30' N. and from longitude 151°00' W. to 153°10' W. The area includes the Alpine oil field in the east, the Husky Inigok exploration well (site of a landing strip) in the west, many of the exploration wells drilled in NPRA since 2000, and the route of a proposed pipeline to carry oil from discovery wells in NPRA to the Alpine oil field. This map area is referred to as the "Fish Creek area" after a creek that flows through the region. The map series includes (1) a color shaded-relief map based on 5-m-resolution data (sheet 1), (2) a surface-classification map based on 30-m-resolution data (sheet 2), and (3) a 5-m-resolution shaded relief-surface classification map that combines the shaded-relief and surface-classification data (sheet 3). Remote sensing datasets that were used to compile the maps include Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper+ (ETM+), and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IFSAR) data. In addition, a 1:250,000-scale geologic map of the Harrison Bay quadrangle, Alaska (Carter and Galloway, 1985, 2005) was used in conjunction with ETM+ and IFSAR data.

Alaska↗

Porphyry copper assessment of British Columbia and Yukon Territory, Canada: Chapter C in Global mineral resource assessment

The U.S. Geological Survey does regional, national, and global assessments of resources (mineral, energy, water, biologic) to provide science in support of land management and decision making. Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about where mineral deposits are known and suspected to be in the Earth’s crust, which commodities may be present, and estimates of amounts of resources that may be present in undiscovered deposits. Canada is an important source of copper, consistently ranking as one of the top 10 world producers during the past decade (2000–2010). The preponderance of this production has been from porphyry-copper-type deposits in the western Canadian Cordillera. A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered resources associated with porphyry copper deposits in western Canada was completed as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The purpose of the assessment was to (1) compile a database of known deposits and significant prospects, (2) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits that may be present in the upper kilometer (minimally) of the Earth’s crust, and (3) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in the tracts. The study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in collaboration with geologists from the British Columbia Geological Survey, Yukon Geological Survey, and industry consultants. The database of known deposits and significant prospects includes an inventory of mineral resources in 89 known porphyry copper (and 2 related copper-bearing polymetallic vein) ore zones, representing 50 porphyry copper deposits, and lists key characteristics of 280 additional porphyry copper and related copper-bearing prospects, as indicated by currently available exploration results, which also are summarized. Resource and exploration and development activity are updated with information current through April 2010. The delineation of permissive tracts and probabilistic estimation of resources in undiscovered deposits were done using the USGS three-part mineral resource assessment approach. Permissive tracts are defined in accordance with descriptive models for porphyry copper deposits to include igneous rocks and known deposits and prospects within magmatic arcs related to convergent plate-margin boundary zones. Frequency distributions of total tonnages and average grades of thoroughly explored deposits were used as models for undiscovered deposits and include a new grade and tonnage model for calc-alkaline porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits in western Canada. Five permissive tracts for the occurrence of porphyry copper deposits were delineated: 2 island-arc tracts, 1 tract of transitional, mixed island-arc and continental arc affinities, and 2 continental arc tracts. In permissive tract 003pCu2001, calc-alkaline igneous rocks of Middle Triassic to Late Jurassic age in accreted island-arc terranes of the Intermontane belt are assessed for calc-alkaline porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits. The area of this tract is 175,250 km 2 . In 12 known deposits, the total reported tonnage of ore is 8,100 million metric tons (Mt) containing 24.6 Mt copper. An estimated 6.9 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 8.9 Mt copper and a median of 6.9 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 18.9 known plus estimated undiscovered deposits in this tract is approximately 11 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . In permissive tract 003pCu2002, alkaline igneous rocks of Middle Triassic to Late Jurassic age within the Intermontane accreted island-arc terranes are assessed for alkaline porphyry Cu-Au deposits. The area of this tract is 109,290 km 2 . In 12 known deposits the total reported tonnage of ore is 6,440 Mt, containing 20.9 Mt copper. An estimated 7 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 22 Mt copper and a median of 13 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 19 known plus estimated undiscovered deposits in this tract is approximately 17 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . In permissive tract 003pCu2003, calc-alkaline igneous rocks of Late Triassic to Early Cretaceous age within the accreted Insular terranes of mixed island-arc and continental arc affinities are assessed for calc-alkaline porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits. The area of this tract is 58,360 km 2 . The total tonnage of ore reported in the 2 known deposits is 1,160 Mt containing 3.17 Mt copper. An estimated 2.3 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 3 Mt copper and a median of 1.9 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 4.3 known plus estimated undiscovered deposits in this tract is approximately 7 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . In permissive tract 003pCu2004, calc-alkaline igneous rocks in continental magmatic arcs of Jurassic to Eocene age are assessed for porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits. The area of this tract is 639,500 km 2 . The total tonnage of ore reported for the 23 known deposits is 6,520 Mt containing 17.9 Mt copper. An estimated 9.6 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 13 Mt copper and a median of 11 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 32.6 known deposits plus the estimated undiscovered deposits in this tract is approximately 5 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . In permissive tract 003pCu2005, calc-alkaline igneous rocks in continental magmatic arcs of Oligocene to Pliocene age are assessed for porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits. The area of this tract is 32,840 km 2 . The total tonnage of ore reported for the 1 known deposit is 44.8 Mt containing 0.224 Mt copper. An estimated 1.4 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 1.8 Mt copper and a median of 0.72 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 2.4 known plus estimated undiscovered deposits in this permissive tract is approximately 7 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . Western Canada has been thoroughly explored for porphyry copper deposits. The total estimated copper contained in known deposits is about 66.8 Mt (based on 2010 data), as compared to a 49 Mt mean of estimated copper in undiscovered deposits and a 34 Mt median of estimated copper in undiscovered deposits. The copper contained in known porphyry copper deposits represents about 58 percent of the total of known and undiscovered porphyry copper deposits (based on mean values). About 86 percent of the increase in estimated copper resources between 1993 and 2009 resulted from the discovery of extensions to known deposits. Nevertheless, exploration for undiscovered deposits continues, especially in and around significant prospects and in parts of permissive tracts that are mostly hidden beneath younger volcanic, sedimentary, or vegetated surficial cover.

British Columbia, Yukon Territory↗

A Next Generation Lunar Orbiter mission

The Moon is the scientific foundation for our knowledge of the early evolution and impact history of the terrestrial planets. Over the last decades the lunar science community has made significant progress in addressing key lunar science and exploration goals, while defining many new high-priority scientific questions regarding the formation and evolution of the Moon. On a broad scale, the last Planetary Decadal Survey defined three scientific objectives to guide studies of the inner planets and Moon. These objectives address the origins and diversity of terrestrial planets, the evolution of life on terrestrial planets, and climate processes on Earth-like planets [1]. Many of these objectives carry forward into exploration goals of a renewed lunar human exploration program, and urgently addressing these objectives will enable the rapid development of exploration plans. A large (Flagship or New Frontiers class) Next Generation Lunar Orbiter (NGLO) mission would address the last Planetary Decadal Survey objective of understanding the origin and diversity of terrestrial planets by studying the geochemistry and geology of the Moon at an unparalleled resolution compared to other lunar mission datasets. Also, NGLO would address the objective of studying the evolution of life on terrestrial planets by furthering knowledge about the composition and distribution of volatile elements on the lunar surface and better characterizing the past and present-day impact rates in the inner Solar System in order to better understand the original delivery of water to Earth. Key exploration goals, including identifying the nature and distribution of lunar volatiles (i.e., water, ice), mapping and characterizing potentially valuable lunar resources, and establishing a human presence on the Moon, also would be addressed by NGLO.

Bulletin of the AAS↗

Linkage effects between deposit discovery and postdiscovery exploratory drilling

For the 1950-71 period of petroleum exploration in the Powder River Basin, northeastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana, three specific topics were investigated. First, the wildcat wells drilled during the ambient phases of exploration are estimated to have discovered 2.80 times as much petroleum per well as the wildcat wells drilled during the cyclical phases of exploration, periods when exploration plays were active. Second, the hypothesis was tested and verified that during ambient phases of exploration the discovery of deposits could be anticipated by a small but statistically significant rise in the ambient drilling rate during the year prior to the year of discovery. Closer examination of the data suggests that this anticipation effect decreases through time. Third, a regression model utilizing the two independent variables of (1) the volume of petroleum contained in each deposit discovered in a cell and the directly adjacent cells and (2) the respective depths of these deposits was constructed to predict the expected yearly cyclical wildcat drilling rate in four 30 by 30 min (approximately 860 mi 2 ) sized cells. In two of these cells relatively large volumes of petroleum were discovered, whereas in the other two cells smaller volumes were discovered. The predicted and actual rates of wildcat drilling which occurred in each cell agreed rather closely.

Montana, Wyoming↗

Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) climate scenario planning pilot report

Scenario planning is a structured process that embraces uncertainty and explores plausible alternative future conditions under different assumptions to help manage risk and prioritize actions ( Schwartz 1996, Peterson et al . 2003). It has been used by a variety of organizations to explore and help prepare for the future, lends itself well to exploring the uncertainty surrounding changing environmental conditions, and is widely applicable to natural resource management issues. The conservation and management of protected resources for example, can be particularly challenging when the rate and magnitude of climate-related changes, and the response of species to those changes, are uncertain (NMFS 2016). The structured process of scenario planning can help resource managers navigate through potentially paralyzing uncertainties, manage risk, and evaluate/prioritize management actions associated with adapting to, and managing for, climate change (Moore et al . 2013). Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) is a species highly vulnerable to climate change in the Northeast Atlantic (Hare et al . 2016a). Based on this and the above reasons, a scenario planning initiative was piloted by NOAA Fisheries to explore what the agency can do to improve U.S.Atlantic salmon population resilience to changing climate conditions in riverine, estuarine(transition), and marine environments across its current range (U.S. headwaters to Greenland). Project objectives were: 1) to better understand the challenges of managing Atlantic salmon in a changing climate; 2) to identify and discuss potential management actions and research activities that can be undertaken to increase our understanding of the drivers of Atlantic salmon productivity and resilience; 3) to increase collaborations and coordination related to the speciesrecovery; and 4) to explore how scenario planning can be used to support decisions. Outcomes from this initiative included, but were not limited to, the identification of high priority research and management actions to further collaborations and efforts to recover this species. The identified high priority actions were those that could be undertaken in the near-term(1-5 years) using current resources and in consideration of potential future conditions. Examples of identified actions by habitat (not in order of priority) included: 1) synthesize and refine range-wide life stage specific quantitative environmental thresholds for temperature, flow, etc.; 2) assess watershed habitat productivity; 3) assess forage fish and survival connection and options for marine migration monitoring; and 4) reduce dam-associated indirect estuarine mortality rate. In addition, a number of high priority climate-related actions were included in the revised Atlantic Salmon Recovery Plan (USFWS and NMFS 2019, Appendix 16) and at least two newly NOAA Fisheries funded projects are now underway (1. conduct range-wide habitat analysis and synthesize life stage specific quantitative thresholds and 2. identify locations of cold water refugia under a changing climate). This is the first use of the scenario planning process (NPS 2013) by NOAA Fisheries. This report documents an important example of applying scenario planning to marine species/environments and may serve as a useful reference for other case studies.

Atlantic Ocean↗

Energy and minerals division tight oil and gas committee: Activities and commodity report for 2019-2020

In 2019, total daily tight oil and gas production increased in the United States month over month, with annualized growth of 14% for oil and 12% for gas. Those gains leveled off in the first quarter of 2020 due to aggressive price competition and increases in international production. Then came the pandemic with a substantially larger dose of economic turmoil, driving down demand due in part to shelter in place orders and safety concerns around travel. Between March and May, tight oil and gas production dropped by nearly 2 million bpd and almost 5 Bcf/day before beginning to recover. Production has continued to increase for the most part through the second half of 2020, but drilling remains subdued throughout most of the U.S. and uncertainty around long term demand along with the current price environment and general state of the economy has contributed to layoffs throughout the industry. Some shale-gas production has declined recently, but a few areas have seen expansion due to construction of LNG facilities along the East Coast of the U.S. (e.g., the Haynesville Formation). Current U.S. shale-gas production is still higher now than in 2019, with daily production of almost 71 Bcf as of October 2020 driven in large part by increased production from the Marcellus Shale in the Appalachian Basin and shales within the Permian Basin. Shale liquids production is down by around a million bpd to approximately 7.1 million (September 2020; U.S. EIA) from pre-pandemic production levels at the end of 2019 and beginning of 2020. Tight oil production remains dominated by plays in the Permian Basin as well as the Bakken and Eagle Ford Formations. On the development and production front, new enhanced oil recovery approaches for tight shale reservoirs are being more widely implemented. Natural gas or CO2 injection is currently being utilized in the Bakken Formation, Eagle Ford Formation, Anadarko Basin, and the Permian Basin to optimize injection sequences and boost recovery. Refracturing of existing wells to reduce drilling costs, improve production, and prolong well productive life has also begun to occur more widely in developed plays. International interest in exploiting hydrocarbons from unconventional reservoirs continues to develop, with active exploration projects on most continents. Europe remains relatively underexplored as compared to North America, although a total of 141 exploration and appraisal wells with a possible shale-gas exploration component have been spudded, including horizontal legs from vertical wells. Shale exploration has made a breakthrough in China with shale gas output in 2019 of 10 billion cubic meters (35.3 Bcf), 60% of which was produced from Sinopec’s Fuling Shale Gas field. Lacustrine shale oil exploration has also been successful in the Sichuan and Ordos Basins in central China, Junggar and Tarim Basins in northwest China, and Songliao Basin in north China, and Bohai Bay Basins in northeast China as of 2018. South America’s potential as an unconventional shale gas and oil province is mainly in Argentina and Brazil, where the production from Neuquen Basin’s tight shale of the Vaca Muerta Formation has been steadily increasing since 2016, but only 4% of the shale resource has been developed thus far. According to International Energy Agency’s report in 2013, Brazil holds the 9th largest unconventional gas reserves. Brazil has shale oil and gas potential in the Parana, Solimoes and Amazon Basins and is actively producing from the oil shale unit of the Irati Formation. In 2019, the Brazil energy ministry launched REATE 2020 to boost onshore investments that include the expectation of drilling an experimental unconventional well in the northeast region. For this inaugural report, the new AAPG EMD Tight Oil and Gas Committee (TO&G; formerly the Shale Gas & Liquids and Tight Gas Sands committees) has developed new commodity report requirements for contributors. This includes shorter annual reports focused on new developments, play concepts, along with the typical updates on production and new drilling in the play areas they cover. We are also asking contributors to collect background geologic and production related information into a document that summarizes important features of the plays they cover that will be stored on the TO&G webpage along with our commodity reports. TO&G is currently working to expand the number of contributors to cover more play areas and replace committee and advisory board members that have recently stepped down. Changes to committee leadership occurred in October as recent chairs transition to EMD elected positions.

Activities and Commodities Report↗

Geochemistry of glacial sediments in the area of the Bend massive sulfide deposit, north-central Wisconsin

Geochemical exploration in northern Wisconsin has been problematic because of thick glacial overburden and complex stratigraphic record of glacial history. To assess till geochemical exploration in an area of thick glacial cover and complex stratigraphy samples of glacial materials were collected from cores from five rotasonic boreholes near a known massive sulfide deposit, the Bend deposit in north-central Wisconsin. Diamond drilling in the Bend area has defined a long, thin zone of mineralization at least partly intersected at the bedrock surface beneath 30-40 m of unconsolidated glacial sediments. The bedrock surface has remnant regolith and saprolite resulting from pre-Pleistocene weathering. Massive sulfide and mineralized rock collected from diamond drill core from the deposit contain high (10s to 10,000s ppm) concentrations of Ag, As, Au, Bi, Cu, Hg, Se, Te, and Tl. Geochemical properties of the glacial stratigraphic units helped clarify the sequence and source areas of several glacial ice advances preserved in the section. At least two till sheets are recognized. Over the zone of mineralization, saprolite and preglacial alluvial and lacustrine samples are preserved on the bedrock surface in a paleoriver valley. The overlying till sheet is a gray, silty carbonate till with a source hundreds of kilometers to the northwest of the study area. This gray till is overlain by red, sandy till with a source to the north in Proterozoic rocks of the Lake Superior area. The complex glacial stratigraphy confounds down-ice geochemical till exploration. The presence of remnant saprolite, preglacial sediment, and far-traveled carbonate till minimized glacial erosion of mineralized material. As a result, little evidence of down-ice glacial dispersion of lithologic or mineralogic indicators of Bend massive sulfide mineralization was found in the samples from the rotasonic cores. This study points out the importance of determining glacial stratigraphy and history, and identifying favorable lithologies required for geochemical exploration. Drift prospecting in Wisconsin and other areas near the outer limits of the Pleistocene ice sheets may not be unsuccessful, in part, because of complex stratigraphic sequences of multiple glaciations where deposition dominates over erosion. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Geochemical Exploration↗

NEOCHIM: An electrochemical method for environmental application

Ion migration and electroosmosis are the principal processes underlying electrokinetic remediation of hazardous wastes from soils. These processes are a response of charged species to an applied electrical current and they are accompanied by electrolysis of water at the electrodes through which the current is applied. Electrolysis results in the formation of OH- at the cathode and H+ at the anode. The current drives the OH- and H+ thus formed from the electrodes, through the soil and to the electrode of opposite charge. Introduction of OH- and H+ into the soil being treated modifies soil chemistry and can interfere with either the collection or immobilization of hazardous waste ions. The introduction of either OH- or H+ to the soil can be problematic to electrokinetic remediation but the problem caused by OH- has been the focus of most researchers. The problem has been addressed by flushing the OH- from the soil near the cathode or treating the soil with buffers. These treatments would apply as well to soils affected by H+. With the NEOCHIM technology, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for use as a sampling technique in exploration for buried ore deposits, OH- and H+ are retained in the inner compartment of two-compartment electrodes and are thus prevented from reaching the soil. This enables the extraction of cations and anions, including anionic forms of toxic metals such as HAsO42-. One of the principal attributes of NEOCHIM is the large volume of soil from which ions can be extracted. It is mathematically demonstrable that NEOCHIM extraction volumes can be orders of magnitude greater than volumes typically sampled in more conventional geochemical exploration methods or for environmental sampling. The technology may also be used to introduce selected ions into the soil that affect the solubility of ceratin ions present in the soil. Although field tests for mineral exploration have shown NEOCHIM extraction efficiencies of about 25-35%, laboratory experiments suggest that significantly higher efficiencies are possible. The attributes of NEOCHIM combined with relatively low cost of electrical power, indicate that the technology may be useful for remediation and monitoring of hazardous waste sites. Of particular importance is that NEOCHIM extractions affect only dissolved and electrically charged species, hence those prone to move in groundwater.The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a technology called NEOCHIM for use as a sampling technique in exploration for buried deposits. With this technology, OH- and H+ are retained in the inner compartment of two-compartment electrodes and are thus prevented from reaching the soil. This enables the extraction of cations and anions. Laboratory experiments suggest extraction efficiencies higher than 25-35%.

Journal of Geochemical Exploration↗

Characteristic analysis-1981: Final program and a possible discovery

The latest ornewest version of thecharacteristicanalysis (NCHARAN)computer program offers the exploration geologist a wide variety of options for integrating regionalized multivariate data. The options include the selection of regional cells for characterizing deposit models, the selection of variables that constitute the models, and the choice of logical combinations of variables that best represent these models. Moreover, the program provides for the display of results which, in turn, makes possible review, reselection, and refinement of a model. Most important, the performance of the above-mentioned steps in an interactive computing mode can result in a timely and meaningful interpretation of the data available to the exploration geologist. The most recent application of characteristic analysis has resulted in the possible discovery of economic sulfide mineralization in the Grong area in central Norway. Exploration data for 27 geophysical, geological, and geochemical variables were used to construct a mineralized and a lithogeochemical model for an area that contained a known massive sulfide deposit. The models were applied to exploration data collected from the Gjersvik area in the Grong mining district and resulted in the identification of two localities of possible mineralization. Detailed field examination revealed the presence of a sulfide vein system and a partially inverted stratigraphic sequence indicating the possible presence of a massive sulfide deposit at depth. ?? 1983 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗

Learning rate and temperament in a high predation risk environment

Living in challenging environments can influence the behavior of animals in a number of ways. For instance, populations of prey fish that experience frequent, nonlethal interactions with predators have a high proportion of individuals that express greater reaction to risk and increased activity and exploration—collectively known as temperament traits. Temperament traits are often correlated, such that individuals that are risk-prone also tend to be active and explore more. Spatial learning, which requires the integration of many sensory cues, has also been shown to vary in fish exposed to different levels of predation threat. Fish from areas of low predation risk learn to solve spatial tasks faster than fish from high predation areas. However, it is not yet known whether simpler forms of learning, such as learning associations between two events, are similarly influenced. Simple forms of associative learning are likely to be affected by temperament because a willingness to approach and explore novel situations could provide animals with a learning advantage. However, it is possible that routine-forming and inflexible traits associated with risk-prone and increased exploratory behavior may act in the opposite way and make risk-prone individuals poorer at learning associations. To investigate this, we measured temperament in Panamanian bishop fish ( Brachyrhaphis episcopi ) sampled from a site known to contain many predators. The B. episcopi were then tested with an associative learning task. Within this population, fish that explored more were faster at learning a cue that predicted access to food, indicating a link between temperament and basic learning abilities.

Oecologia↗

Comparing single and multiple objective constrained optimization algorithms for tuning a groundwater remediation system

Groundwater flow and particle tracking models are critical tools to simulate the natural system, contaminant fate and transport, and effects of remediation. Constrained optimization uses models to systematically explore the interplay between remedial design and contaminant fate, considering uncertainty. Sequential Linear Programming (SLP) provides a design alternative addressing a single goal (e.g. maximum hydraulic containment, maximum mass removal). Multi-objective algorithms like Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) explore the tradeoffs among such objectives and more (e.g. cost, public-supply well contamination). We explore both approaches at a contaminated site in Long Island, New York USA. We compare the algorithms and ramifications on results. NSGA-II explores, at additional computational cost, explicit tradeoffs among multiple objectives, providing additional insights relative to SLP. The NGSA-II algorithm allows for graphical consideration of three objectives. SLP decision variables often settle at predetermined bounds. Bounds assignment thus differs from parameter estimation; bounds must be acceptable rather than safeguards.

New York↗

Mineral deposit discovery order and three-part quantitative assessments

Larger oil pools tending to be discovered earlier in an exploration play suggests the same pattern might exist for mineral deposits and could be used in predicting sizes of undiscovered deposits in mineral assessments. The volume of individual petroleum pools is highly correlated with surface projection area of pools in basins. The gradual additions to individual oil pool reserves over time adds to the appearance of larger pools being discovered earlier. Comparisons of surface projected areas of mineral deposits to their tonnages showed significant positive relationships in all 10 deposit types analyzed, suggesting that larger deposits should be discovered earlier than small deposits. Analysis of deposits consistent with three-part mineral assessments identified 9 combinations of mineral deposit types in large regions each containing multiple geological permissive tracts showing negative and 1 positive relationships of deposit size with discovery date significant at the 1% level. Twenty other tests of regions containing multiple permissive settings had either negative or positive relationships, none significantly different from those that might occur by chance. The large regions are mostly based on political boundaries. These results suggest mineral deposit discovery order is not the same as observed in oil pool exploration. The widely employed three-part quantitative mineral resource assessments are an obvious choice to benefit from patterns of declining deposit sizes with order of discovery. The 30 tests of relationships of discovery dates to deposit sizes demonstrated here were performed with deposits consistent with those in three-part assessments, but the large areas are not consistent with permissive tracts used in these assessments because they also contain substantial non-permissive geology. In 100 permissive tracts assessed with three-part assessments of multiple deposit types located throughout the world, the median number of known well-explored deposits is 1 and 90 percent of tracts report less than 9 deposits. The number of well-explored deposits in three-part assessed tracts tends to be quite small, limiting any ability to recognize a discovery order versus size relationship. In a three-part assessment of undiscovered porphyry copper deposits of South America, only 7 of 26 delineated tracts contained more than 2 known deposits and only 1 had a significant negative relationship between tonnage of known deposits and year of discovery (p = 0.04). Most predicted undiscovered deposits in this tract were expected to be under extensive unexplored post-mineralization cover, meaning the general grade and tonnage model should be applied because the discovery order process starts over. Projection of deposit sizes based on discovery order would provide a biased estimate of the undiscovered deposit sizes in this case. Thus, although a discovery order versus size relationship could exist in three-part mineral assessments, only rarely might the pattern be useful to predict sizes of undiscovered deposits.

Ore Geology Reviews↗

An interactive program for computer-aided map design, display, and query: EMAPKGS2

EMAPKGS2 is a user-friendly, PC-based electronic mapping tool for use in hydrogeologic exploration and appraisal. EMAPKGS2 allows the analyst to construct maps interactively from data stored in a relational database, perform point-oriented spatial queries such as locating all wells within a specified radius, perform geographic overlays, and export the data to other programs for further analysis. EMAPKGS2 runs under Microsoft?? Windows??? 3.1 and compatible operating systems. EMAPKGS2 is a public domain program available from the Kansas Geological Survey. EMAPKGS2 is the centerpiece of WHEAT, the Windows-based Hydrogeologic Exploration and Appraisal Toolkit, a suite of user-friendly Microsoft?? Windows??? programs for natural resource exploration and management. The principal goals in development of WHEAT have been ease of use, hardware independence, low cost, and end-user extensibility. WHEAT'S native data format is a Microsoft?? Access?? database. WHEAT stores a feature's geographic coordinates as attributes so they can be accessed easily by the user. The WHEAT programs are designed to be used in conjunction with other Microsoft?? Windows??? software to allow the natural resource scientist to perform work easily and effectively. WHEAT and EMAPKGS have been used at several of Kansas' Groundwater Management Districts and the Kansas Geological Survey on groundwater management operations, groundwater modeling projects, and geologic exploration projects. ?? 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Computers & Geosciences↗

Preliminary cellular-automata forecast of permit activity from 1998 to 2010, Idaho and Western Montana

For public land management in Idaho and western Montana, the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) has requested that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) predict where mineral-related activity will occur in the next decade. Cellular automata provide an approach to simulation of this human activity. Cellular automata (CA) are defined by an array of cells , which evolve by a simple transition rule, the automaton . Based on exploration trends, we assume that future exploration will focus in areas of past exploration. Spatial-temporal information about mineral-related activity, that is permits issued by USFS and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) in the last decade, and spatial information about undiscovered resources, provide a basis to calibrate a CA. The CA implemented is a modified annealed voting rule that simulates mineral-related activity with spatial and temporal resolution of 1 mi 2 and 1 year based on activity from 1989 to 1998. For this CA, the state of the economy and exploration technology is assumed constant for the next decade. The calibrated CA reproduces the 1989–1998-permit activity with an agreement of 94%, which increases to 98% within one year. Analysis of the confusion matrix and kappa correlation statistics indicates that the CA underestimates high activity and overestimates low activity. Spatially, the major differences between the actual and calculated activity are that the calculated activity occurs in a slightly larger number of small patches and is slightly more uneven than the actual activity. Using the calibrated CA in a Monte Carlo simulation projecting from 1998 to 2010, an estimate of the probability of mineral activity shows high levels of activity in Boise, Caribou, Elmore, Lincoln, and western Valley counties in Idaho and Beaverhead, Madison, and Stillwater counties in Montana, and generally low activity elsewhere.

Idaho, Montana↗

The NASA Roadmap to Ocean Worlds

In this article, we summarize the work of the NASA Outer Planets Assessment Group (OPAG) Roadmaps to Ocean Worlds (ROW) group. The aim of this group is to assemble the scientific framework that will guide the exploration of ocean worlds, and to identify and prioritize science objectives for ocean worlds over the next several decades. The overarching goal of an Ocean Worlds exploration program as defined by ROW is to “identify ocean worlds, characterize their oceans, evaluate their habitability, search for life, and ultimately understand any life we find.” The ROW team supports the creation of an exploration program that studies the full spectrum of ocean worlds, that is, not just the exploration of known ocean worlds such as Europa but candidate ocean worlds such as Triton as well. The ROW team finds that the confirmed ocean worlds Enceladus, Titan, and Europa are the highest priority bodies to target in the near term to address ROW goals. Triton is the highest priority candidate ocean world to target in the near term. A major finding of this study is that, to map out a coherent Ocean Worlds Program, significant input is required from studies here on Earth; rigorous Research and Analysis studies are called for to enable some future ocean worlds missions to be thoughtfully planned and undertaken. A second finding is that progress needs to be made in the area of collaborations between Earth ocean scientists and extraterrestrial ocean scientists.

Astrobiology↗