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At least 775 records · Page 43Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Modeling protected species distributions and habitats to inform siting and management of pioneering ocean industries: A case study for Gulf of Mexico aquaculture

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) provides a process that uses spatial data and models to evaluate environmental, social, economic, cultural, and management trade-offs when siting (i.e., strategically locating) ocean industries. Aquaculture is the fastest-growing food sector in the world. The United States (U.S.) has substantial opportunity for offshore aquaculture development given the size of its exclusive economic zone, habitat diversity, and variety of candidate species for cultivation. However, promising aquaculture areas overlap many protected species habitats. Aquaculture siting surveys, construction, operations, and decommissioning can alter protected species habitat and behavior. Additionally, aquaculture-associated vessel activity, underwater noise, and physical interactions between protected species and farms can increase the risk of injury and mortality. In 2020, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was identified as one of the first regions to be evaluated for offshore aquaculture opportunities as directed by a Presidential Executive Order. We developed a transparent and repeatable method to identify aquaculture opportunity areas (AOAs) with the least conflict with protected species. First, we developed a generalized scoring approach for protected species that captures their vulnerability to adverse effects from anthropogenic activities using conservation status and demographic information. Next, we applied this approach to data layers for eight species listed under the Endangered Species Act, including five species of sea turtles, Rice’s whale, smalltooth sawfish, and giant manta ray. Next, we evaluated four methods for mathematically combining scores (i.e., Arithmetic mean, Geometric mean, Product, Lowest Scoring layer) to generate a combined protected species data layer. The Product approach provided the most logical ordering of, and the greatest contrast in, site suitability scores. Finally, we integrated the combined protected species data layer into a multi-criteria decision-making modeling framework for MSP. This process identified AOAs with reduced potential for protected species conflict. These modeling methods are transferable to other regions, to other sensitive or protected species, and for spatial planning for other ocean-uses.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2020

A weight-of-evidence approach for defining thermal sensitivity in a federally endangered species

1. Managing for threatened and endangered species under changing environmental conditions is a challenge faced by resource managers worldwide. Lack of basic knowledge of the biology and habitat requirements of these species can contribute to this difficulty, but is confounded by the limitations of working with rare (i.e. few individuals) species or unrefined methods for evaluating stress. 2. A weight of evidence approach was used to evaluate the thermal biology of the federally endangered dwarf wedgemussel ( Alasmidonta heterodon ), utilizing cumulative results from multiple experimental assessments, co-occurring species, and their host fish to begin defining thermal limits and optimal conditions for the species. 3. Results suggest that dwarf wedgemussel and its host fish are thermally sensitive species compared to other Atlantic-slope mussels, with lower critical thermal maximum and selection of reduced temperatures during choice experiments. 4. Physiological studies resulted in lack of statistical significance primarily due to low power which was a function of sample size, one unavoidable problem when studying rare species. Given these limitations, thermal choice and CTM may be more useful endpoints than physiological processes such as clearance and respiration rates when dealing with sample size limitations. 5. These results suggest that management strategies that avoid exposing dwarf wedgemussel and its thermally sensitive host fish to extreme temperatures could be important for species conservation.

New Jersey, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2025

Streamflow as a stressor: Disentangling hydrology and water quality impacts to characterize flow-ecology relationships for two stream assemblages across two southeastern landscapes

Disassociating the independent effects of flow and water quality on the ecology of flowing waters is an overarching goal in water resource science needed to improve the efficacy of watershed management. However, the interrelatedness of these gradients and their subsequent alteration due to land use change has constrained progress made on this front. The objective of this study was to use benthic macroinvertebrate and fish assemblage data to characterize flow-ecology relationships that were unchanged by water quality impacts across two southeastern landscapes in the USA to help detect ecological change driven by flow alteration. General linear latent models were used to identify taxa that were responsive to high or low flow metrics and water quality gradients. Bayesian hierarchical generalized additive models were then developed using these indicator taxa and three biological metrics to identify flow-specific relationships that were unaffected by water quality impacts. Three low flow-specific relationships were identified, illustrating how potential agricultural or urban impacts to hydrology reduced stream biological health. Importantly, flow-ecology relationships developed using indicator taxa in this study effectively captured hydrology-specific impacts while biological metrics typical of state monitoring and assessment programs did not. Therefore, developing flow-specific biological metrics is a critical step when developing management strategies targeting flow alteration. Implementing standardized frameworks such as the one characterized here can limit contradictory findings and improve streamflow enhancement and restoration project efficacy. These low flow-specific relationships will enhance managers' capacity to develop environmental flow standards, monitor their success, and better understand urban and agricultural impacts on stream assemblages.

Alabama↗
USGS2024

Wood you believe it? Experimental addition of nonnative wood enhances instream habitat for native dryland fishes

Flow alteration and riparian vegetation encroachment are causing habitat simplification with severe consequences for native fishes. To assess the effectiveness of enhancing simplified habitat in a large dryland river, we experimentally added invasive wood at 19 paired treatment and reference (no wood added) subreaches (50–100 m) within the main channel of the San Juan River. Using a before-after-control-impact design, we sampled fishes and macroinvertebrates, and quantified habitat complexity. After wood addition, total native fish densities were 2.2× higher in treatments compared with references, whereas total nonnative fish densities exhibited no response. Macroinvertebrate densities were 6.8× higher, and habitat complexity increased in treatments. Counts of geomorphic features in treatments increased from 1 to a maximum of 11 following wood addition, while the number of features in references remained unchanged. Wood addition has potential to instigate natural riverine processes, ultimately enhancing native fish habitat by increasing macroinvertebrate densities and habitat complexity in dryland rivers. Water overallocation and increasing aridity will continue to challenge efforts to improve habitat conditions with environmental flows alone, and managers might consider integrating non-flow alternatives like addition of abundant, invasive wood to reduce habitat simplification.

New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2019

Trophic plasticity and the invasion of a renowned piscivore: A diet synthesis of northern pike (Esox lucius) from the native and introduced ranges in Alaska, U.S.A.

The invasion of non-native fishes is a leading cause of extinction and imperilment of native freshwater fishes. Evidence suggests that introduced species with generalist diets have the potential for greatest impacts through competition and predation even though populations are often comprised of specialist individuals. The northern pike (Esox lucius), a predatory fish, has been widely introduced outside its native range for recreational fishing purposes, especially in western North America, and it has been implicated in declines and extirpations of native fishes. We synthesized over 2,900 individual northern pike diet records across 31 waterbodies from the native and introduced ranges in Alaska to quantify the extent of diet specialization and generalization relative to freshwater prey communities. To control for effects of ontogenetic diet shifts, we separately analyzed major size classes of northern pike and inferred and visualized trophic plasticity from Prey-Specific Abundance indices and ordination. Diet generalization was common in northern pike among waterbodies and usually consisted of individuals consuming macroinvertebrates. However, when available, individual northern pike diets showed specialization on fishes, amphibians, small mammals, and dragonflies. The reliance on macroinvertebrate prey by northern pike from small, isolated lakes in the native and invasive ranges suggests that dietary plasticity facilitates persistence of these predators in the absence of preferred fish prey. Broadly, this synthesis supports the hypothesis that trophic plasticity and diet generalization widely occur among invasive and native populations of northern pike which is likely to enhance the probability of introduction success, exacerbate their environmental impacts, and complicate management of this potentially invasive freshwater predator.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Conservation status of the American horseshoe crab, (Limulus polyphemus): A regional assessment

Horseshoe crabs have persisted for more than 200 million years, and fossil forms date to 450 million years ago. The American horseshoe crab ( Limulus polyphemus ), one of four extant horseshoe crab species, is found along the Atlantic coastline of North America ranging from Alabama to Maine, USA with another distinct population on the coasts of Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo in the Yucatán Peninsula, México. Although the American horseshoe crab tolerates broad environmental conditions, exploitation and habitat loss threaten the species. We assessed the conservation status of the American horseshoe crab by comprehensively reviewing available scientific information on its range, life history, genetic structure, population trends and analyses, major threats, and conservation. We structured the status assessment by six genetically-informed regions and accounted for sub-regional differences in environmental conditions, threats, and management. The transnational regions are Gulf of Maine (USA), Mid-Atlantic (USA), Southeast (USA), Florida Atlantic (USA), Northeast Gulf of México (USA), and Yucatán Peninsula (México). Our conclusion is that the American horseshoe crab species is vulnerable to local extirpation and that the degree and extent of risk vary among and within the regions. The risk is elevated in the Gulf of Maine region due to limited and fragmented habitat. The populations of horseshoe crabs in the Mid-Atlantic region are stable in the Delaware Bay area, and regulatory controls are in place, but the risk is elevated in the New England area as evidenced by continuing declines understood to be caused by over-harvest. The populations of horseshoe crabs in the Southeast region are stable or increasing. The populations of horseshoe crabs in the Florida Atlantic region show mixed trends among areas, and continuing population reductions at the embayment level have poorly understood causes. Within the Northeast Gulf of Mexico, causes of population trends are poorly understood and currently there is no active management of horseshoe crabs. Horseshoe crabs within México have conservation protection based on limited and fragmented habitat and geographic isolation from other regions, but elevated risk applies to the horseshoe crabs in the Yucatán Peninsula region until sufficient data can confirm population stability. Future species status throughout its range will depend on the effectiveness of conservation to mitigate habitat loss and manage for sustainable harvest among and within regions.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗
USGS2020

Linking land and sea through an ecological-economic model of coral reef recreation

Coastal zones are popular recreational areas that substantially contribute to social welfare. Managers can use information about specific environmental features that people value, and how these might change under different management scenarios, to spatially target actions to areas of high current or potential value. We explored how snorkelers’ experience would be affected by separate and combined land and marine management actions in West Maui, Hawaiʻi, using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) and a spatially explicit ecosystem services model. The BBN simulates the attractiveness of a site for recreation by combining snorkeler preferences for coastal features with expert opinions on ecological dynamics, snorkeler behavior, and management actions. A choice experiment with snorkelers elucidated their preferences for sites with better ecological and water-quality conditions. Linking the economic elicitation to the spatially explicit BBN to evaluate land-sea management scenarios provides specific guidance on where and how to act in West Maui to maximize ecosystem service returns. Improving coastal water quality through sediment runoff and cesspool effluent reductions (land management), and enhancing coral reef ecosystem conditions (marine management) positively affected overall snorkeling attractiveness across the study area, but with differential results at specific sites. The highest improvements were attained through joint land-sea management, driven by strong efforts to increase fish abundance and reduced sediment; however, the effects of management at individual beaches varied.

Hawaii↗
USGS2012

The effects of drought and disturbance on the growth and developmental instability of loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda L.)

Ecological indicators provide early warning of adverse environmental change, helping land managers adaptively manage their resources while minimizing costly remediation. In 1999 and 2000, we studied two such indicators, growth and developmental instability, of loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda L.) influenced by mechanized infantry training at Fort Benning, Georgia. Disturbed areas were used for military training; tracked and wheeled vehicles damaged vegetation and soils. Highly disturbed sites had fewer trees, diminished ground cover, warmer soils in the summer, and more compacted soils with a shallower A-horizon. We hypothesized that disturbance would decrease the growth of needles, branches, and tree rings, increase the complexity of tree rings, and increase the developmental instability of needles. Contrary to our expectations, however, disturbance enhanced growth in the first year of the study, possibly by reducing competition. In the second year, a drought reduced growth of branches and needles, eliminating the stimulatory effect of disturbance. Growth-ring widths increased with growing-season precipitation, and decreased with growing-season temperature over the last 40 years. Disturbance had no effect on tree-ring complexity, as measured by the Hurst exponent. Within-fascicle variation of current-year needle length, a measure of developmental instability, differed among the study populations, but appeared unrelated to mechanical disturbance or drought.

Ecological Indicators↗
USGS2026

Modeling the temperature-mediated link between demography and biomass in ectotherms

Population models can forecast the effects of environmental change, disturbance, and management decisions on populations of interest. Most population models focus on abundance of individuals, but biomass may be a more relevant quantity at the community or ecosystem scale, especially when investigating interaction of multiple stressors and cross-ecosystem energy flows. We developed a stage-structured population model that integrates a temperature-mediated tradeoff between development rate and final body size of invertebrates, allowing projection of both population size and standing stock biomass in ecosystems that experience disturbances. We parameterized the model for four aquatic invertebrate life-history types spanning a range of lifespan and susceptibility to disturbance. We observed several emergent properties typical of invertebrate populations but not explicitly included in the model, including self-organization of cohort structure under seasonal environments, a tradeoff between lifespan duration and rate of post-disturbance population recovery, and chaotic population dynamics under high growth rates. Sensitivity analysis revealed that although elevated mean temperature increased population size, total population biomass remained unchanged or even decreased due to declining individual biomass, which has implications for ecosystem processes under a changing climate. The seasonal timing of disturbance showed a strong interaction with temperature regime, with summer versus winter pulse disturbances affecting biomass and abundance in characteristically different ways. Linking invertebrate abundance and biomass dynamics to abiotic drivers through this time-varying matrix population model reveals how life-history shapes aquatic invertebrate response to shifting seasons, temperatures, and disturbance, which is key to understanding the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2020

Life history structure of westslope cutthroat trout: Inferences from otolith microchemistry

Life history diversity is important for population stability and is dependent on connectivity to habitat that supports all life stages and life history strategies for a species. Westslope Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi (WCT) exhibit plasticity in life history strategies in response to environmental variability, but fisheries managers have been challenged with evaluating the life history structure of WCT populations. The goals of this research were to use strontium isotopes (i.e., 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) derived from ambient water and sagittal otoliths to assess spatial variability and describe the life history structure of WCT. Water samples ( n = 49) and WCT ( n = 571) sagittal otoliths were collected throughout the Coeur d’Alene Lake basin in Idaho and analyzed for Sr isotopes. Model-based discriminant function analysis was used to assign WCT to natal tributaries and to infer maternal origins. Life history structure was inferred from maternal signatures and indicated that fluvial (68% of all fish), resident (27%), and adfluvial (5%) life history strategies were present. Connectivity in lotic systems and from lotic to lentic environments supports WCT life history diversity and contributes to a broad distribution of the species.

Idaho↗
USGS2023

Interactions among rainfall, fire, forbs and non-native grasses predict occupancy dynamics for the endangered Pacific pocket mouse (Perognathus longimembris pacificus) in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem

It is important to understand species-habitat relationships to implement effective adaptive management for rare species. However, it can be challenging to assess habitat associations and their relationships to abiotic stressors in dynamic habitats without the insights that can be gained from long-term monitoring. We report results from the first six years of extensive track tube monitoring of the largest two of three remaining extant populations of federally endangered Pacific pocket mouse ( Perognathus longimembris pacificus ) in a coastal Mediterranean-type ecosystem on Marine Corps Base, Camp Pendleton in southern California, USA. We used dynamic occupancy and structural equation modeling to assess potential drivers of population trends that included habitat, fire history, rainfall, disturbance, and the presence of other small mammals. We found that the variables that best predicted mouse occupancy were moderate to high forb and perennial herb cover (40–80%), and moderate to high open ground (20–70%) and low non-native grass cover (<20%), Non-native grass cover (>20%) was also a strong predictor of lower PPM colonization and increased extinction probabilities, with the extent of non-native grass cover being strongly influenced by annual rainfall and recency of fire. Our study adds to the growing literature on effects of invasive annual grasses on native species in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. We suggest that habitat management could be based upon promotion of open forb and perennial herb dominated habitats with reduction of non-native grasses by prescribed fire and other methods. These types of spatial and temporal monitoring programs can support land managers by creating a monitoring and management feedback loop. They can reveal landscape and environmental variables associated with species persistence, inform habitat management goals, and help managers to assess the success of management actions on populations of conservation concern.

California↗
USGS2019

Improving eDNA yield and inhibitor reduction through increased water volumes and multi-filter isolation techniques

To inform management and conservation decisions, environmental DNA (eDNA) methods are used to detect genetic material shed into the water by imperiled and invasive species. Methodological enhancements are needed to reduce filter clogging, PCR inhibition, and false-negative detections when eDNA is at low concentrations. In the first of three simple experiments, we sought to ameliorate filter clogging from particulates and organic material through a scaled-up, multi-filter protocol. We combined four filters in a 5 mL Phenol-Chloroform-Isoamyl (PCI) procedure to allow for larger volumes of water (~1 L) to be filtered rapidly. Increasing the filtered water volume by four times resulted in 4.4X the yield of target DNA. Next, inhibition from organic material can reduce or block eDNA detections in PCR-based assays. To remove inhibitory compounds retained during eDNA isolation, we tested three methods to chemically strip inhibitors from eDNA molecules. The use of CTAB as a short-term (5–8 day) storage buffer, followed by a PCI isolation, resulted in the highest eDNA yields. Finally, as opposed to a linear relationship among increasing concentrations of filtered genomic eDNA, we observed a sharp change between the lower (70–280 ng) and higher (420–560 ng) amounts. This may be important for effectively precipitating eDNA during protocol testing.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2018

Monitoring algal blooms in drinking water reservoirs using the Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager

In this study, we demonstrated that the Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) sensor is a powerful tool that can provide periodic and system-wide information on the condition of drinking water reservoirs. The OLI is a multispectral radiometer (30 m spatial resolution) that allows ecosystem observations at spatial and temporal scales that allow the environmental community and water managers another means to monitor changes in water quality not feasible with field-based monitoring. Using the provisional Land Surface Reflectance product and field-collected chlorophyll- a (chl- a ) concentrations from drinking water monitoring programs in North Carolina and Rhode Island, we compared five established approaches for estimating chl- a concentrations using spectral data. We found that using the three band reflectance approach with a combination of OLI spectral bands 1, 3, and 5 produced the most promising results for accurately estimating chl- a concentrations in lakes ( R 2 value of 0.66; root mean square error value of 8.9 µg l −1 ). Using this model, we forecast the spatial and temporal variability of chl- a for Jordan Lake, a recreational and drinking water source in piedmont North Carolina and several small ponds that supply drinking water in southeastern Rhode Island.

North Carolina↗
USGS2010

Modelling detection probabilities to evaluate management and control tools for an invasive species

For most ecologists, detection probability (p) is a nuisance variable that must be modelled to estimate the state variable of interest (i.e. survival, abundance, or occupancy). However, in the realm of invasive species control, the rate of detection and removal is the rate-limiting step for management of this pervasive environmental problem. For strategic planning of an eradication (removal of every individual), one must identify the least likely individual to be removed, and determine the probability of removing it. To evaluate visual searching as a control tool for populations of the invasive brown treesnake Boiga irregularis, we designed a mark-recapture study to evaluate detection probability as a function of time, gender, size, body condition, recent detection history, residency status, searcher team and environmental covariates. We evaluated these factors using 654 captures resulting from visual detections of 117 snakes residing in a 5-ha semi-forested enclosure on Guam, fenced to prevent immigration and emigration of snakes but not their prey. Visual detection probability was low overall (= 0??07 per occasion) but reached 0??18 under optimal circumstances. Our results supported sex-specific differences in detectability that were a quadratic function of size, with both small and large females having lower detection probabilities than males of those sizes. There was strong evidence for individual periodic changes in detectability of a few days duration, roughly doubling detection probability (comparing peak to non-elevated detections). Snakes in poor body condition had estimated mean detection probabilities greater than snakes with high body condition. Search teams with high average detection rates exhibited detection probabilities about twice that of search teams with low average detection rates. Surveys conducted with bright moonlight and strong wind gusts exhibited moderately decreased probabilities of detecting snakes. Synthesis and applications. By emphasizing and modelling detection probabilities, we now know: (i) that eradication of this species by searching is possible, (ii) how much searching effort would be required, (iii) under what environmental conditions searching would be most efficient, and (iv) several factors that are likely to modulate this quantification when searching is applied to new areas. The same approach can be use for evaluation of any control technology or population monitoring programme. ?? 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2009 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2013

The ancient blue oak woodlands of California: longevity and hydroclimatic history

Ancient blue oak trees are still widespread across the foothills of the Coast Ranges, Cascades, and Sierra Nevada in California. The most extensive tracts of intact old-growth blue oak woodland appear to survive on rugged and remote terrain in the south Coast Ranges and on the foothills west and southwest of Mt. Lassen. In our sampling of old-growth stands, most blue oak appear to have recruited to the canopy in the mid- to late-19 th century. The oldest living blue oak tree sampled was over 459-years old and several dead blue oak logs had over 500 annual rings. Precipitation sensitive tree-ring chronologies up to 700-years long have been developed from old blue oak trees and logs. Annual ring-width chronologies of blue oak are strongly correlated with cool season precipitation totals, streamflow in the major rivers of California, and the estuarine water quality of San Francisco Bay. A new network of 36 blue oak chronologies records spatial anomalies in growth that arise from latitudinal changes in the mean storm track and location of landfalling atmospheric rivers. These long, climate-sensitive blue oak chronologies have been used to reconstruct hydroclimatic history in California and will help to better understand and manage water resources. The environmental history embedded in blue oak growth chronologies may help justify efforts to conserve these authentic old-growth native woodlands.

California↗
USGS2008

Effects of environmental factors on incubation patterns of Greater Sage-Grouse

Birds in which only one sex incubates the eggs are often faced with a direct conflict between foraging to meet metabolic needs and incubation. Knowledge of environmental and ecological factors that shape life-history strategies of incubation is limited. We used continuous videography to make precise measurements of female Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) incubation constancy (percentage of time spent at the nest in a 24-hour period) and recess duration. We used an information-theoretic approach to evaluate incubation patterns in relation to grouse age, timing of incubation, raven abundance, microhabitat, weather, and food availability. Overall, sage-grouse females showed an incubation constancy of 96% and a distinctive bimodal distribution of brief incubation recesses that peaked at sunset and 30 min prior to sunrise. Grouse typically returned to their nests during low light conditions. Incubation constancy of yearlings was lower than that of adults, particularly in the later stages of incubation. Yearlings spent more time away from nests later in the morning and earlier in the evening compared to adults. Video images revealed that nearly all predation events by Common Ravens ( Corvus corax ), the most frequently recorded predator at sage-grouse nests, took place during mornings and evenings after sunrise and before sunset, respectively. These were the times of the day when sage-grouse typically returned from incubation recesses. Recess duration was negatively related to raven abundance. We found evidence that incubation constancy increased with greater visual obstruction, usually from vegetation, of nests. An understanding of how incubation patterns relate to environmental factors will help managers make decisions aimed at increasing productivity through successful incubation.

The Condor↗
USGS2003

The U.S. Geological Survey land remote sensing program

The U.S. Geological Survey has been a provider of remotely sensed information for decades. As the availability and use of satellite data has grown, USGS has placed increasing emphasis on expanding the knowledge about the science of remote sensing and on making remotely sensed data more accessible. USGS encourages widespread availability and distribution of these data and through its programs, encourages and enables a variety of research activities and the development of useful applications of the data. The science of remote sensing has great potential for assisting in the monitoring and assessment of the impacts of natural disasters, management and analysis of environmental, biological, energy, and mineral investigations, and supporting informed public policy decisions. By establishing the Land Remote Sensing Program (LRS) as a major unit of the USGS Geography Program, USGS has taken the next step to further increase support for the accessibility, understanding, and use of remotely sensed data. This article describes the LRS Program, its mission and objectives, and how the program has been structured to accomplish its goals.

Cartography and Geographic Information Science↗
USGS2011

Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

Michigan↗