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At least 775 records · Page 43Linked to original sources

Modeling and estimating co-occurrence between the invasive Shiny Cowbird and its Puerto Rican hosts

Invasive species threaten island biodiversity globally. For example, the Shiny Cowbird ( Molothrus bonariensis ) parasitizes many of Puerto Rico’s endemic species, particularly in the open forests in the island’s southwest. Less is known, however, about cowbird parasitism in the agro-ecological highlands, which contain a patchwork of forests, shaded-coffee plantations, and coffee farms without shade. In this paper, we estimated co-occurrence rates, a potential indicator of parasitism rates, between the cowbird and four host species across these three land uses, hypothesizing that cowbirds would most likely co-occur with their hosts in shaded-coffee farms. We also hypothesized that the presence of host species would increase the probability of cowbird occurrence. To investigate these hypotheses, we developed three Bayesian hierarchical occupancy models: one where the hosts and parasite occurred independently, one that used the latent host species richness as a predictor of cowbird occurrence, and one that used each latent host occurrence state as predictors. These methods addressed observation errors and appropriately propagated error to our predictions of co-occurrence rates. We selected the best performing model using WAIC, then used it to predict co-occurrence rates. While there was some evidence that host species richness increased the probability of cowbirds, the parsimonious model assumed no interaction. With this model, we found that cowbirds were more likely to overlap with certain hosts in shaded-coffee plantations. This may suggest increased parasitism at these plantations, potentially presenting challenges for managers who advocate for shade restoration to gain ecological services such as biodiversity conservation.

Biological Invasions↗

Climate and Ecological Disturbance Analysis of Engelmann spruce and Douglas fir in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The effects of anthropogenic climate change are apparent in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), USA, with forest die-off, insect outbreaks, and wildfires impacting forest ecosystems. A long-term perspective would enable assessment of the historical range of variability in forest ecosystems and better determination of recent forest dynamics and historical thresholds. The objectives of this study were to (1) develop tree-ring chronologies for Engelmann spruce and Douglas fir growing at the study location, (2) correlate the annual ring widths of each species to monthly climate variables, (3) examine the instrumental climate data for regimes shifts in the mean state of variables, and (4) determine when ecological disturbances occurred through a quantification of growth releases. Finally, we discuss both climate-growth relationships and growth releases in the context of climate regime shifts and known forest disturbances. Engelmann spruce and Douglas fir showed some similar climate responses using moving correlation analysis including negative correlations between ring width and June – August current year temperature and previous growing season temperature. Regime shift analysis indicated significant ( p < 0.05) shifts in minimum and maximum GYE temperature in the latter half of the 20th century. Disturbance analysis indicated that both tree species responded to wildfire and insect outbreak events with growth releases in up to 25% of the trees. Disentangling the influence of climate regime shifts and forest disturbances on the climate-growth relationships can be difficult because climate and forest disturbances are intricately linked. Our evidence indicates that regime shifts in monthly climate variables and forest disturbances as recorded by growth releases can influence the ring width response to climate over time. Trees are key to providing a long-term perspective on climate and ecological health across the GYE because they integrate both climate and ecology in their annual ring widths.

Wyoming↗

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas , which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles – hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta – exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – the strongest on record – combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates ( r = -0.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years ( r = 0.74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the importance of region-wide collaborations.

Global Change Biology↗

Habitat use and feeding ecology of riverine juvenile American shad

We examined premigratory populations of American shad Alosa sapidissima in the upper Delaware River to determine habitat and microhabitat use, differential prey use among habitat types, and habitat suitability indices for this previously unmodeled life stage. Both seining and diving techniques were used to quantify juveniles in six habitat types with six physical habitat covariables. Plankton and drift samples also were compared with stomach contents within habitats. We found no relation between relative abundance of juveniles and habitat type, which suggests general use of most riverine habitats. Physical habitat variables likewise did not affect use of habitat within ranges recorded, with two exceptions: (1) a positive relationship between abundance and water temperature in riffles and (2) a positive relationship between abundance and percent submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) cover in SAV habitats. Opportunistic use of prey items was apparent; however, juveniles selected chironomid larvae and pupae and adult terrestrial insects and avoided ephemeropterans. Overlap between diets and available prey was high for most habitat types ( C λ mean = 0.71), especially for riffles ( C λ = 0.91). However, overlap for juveniles foraging at tributary mouths, where they strongly selected adult terrestrial insects, was low ( C λ = 0.49).

Pennsylvania↗

Determination of biologically significant hydrologic condition metrics in urbanizing watersheds: an empirical analysis over a range of environmental settings

We investigated the relations among 83 hydrologic condition metrics (HCMs) and changes in algal, invertebrate, and fish communities in five metropolitan areas across the continental United States. We used a statistical approach that employed Spearman correlation and regression tree analysis to identify five HCMs that are strongly associated with observed biological variation along a gradient of urbanization. The HCMs related to average flow magnitude, high-flow magnitude, high-flow event frequency, high-flow duration, and rate of change of stream cross-sectional area were most consistently associated with changes in aquatic communities. Although our investigation used an urban gradient design with short hydrologic periods of record (&le;1 year) of hourly cross-sectional area time series, these five HCMs were consistent with previous investigations using long-term daily-flow records. The ecological sampling day often was included in the hydrologic period. Regression tree models explained up to 73, 92, and 79% of variance for specific algal, invertebrate, and fish community metrics, respectively. National models generally were not as statistically significant as models for individual metropolitan areas. High-flow event frequency, a hydrologic metric found to be transferable across stream type and useful for classifying habitat by previous research, was found to be the most ecologically relevant HCM; transformation by precipitation increased national-scale applicability. We also investigated the relation between measures of stream flashiness and land-cover indicators of urbanization and found that land-cover characteristic and pattern variables, such as road density, percent wetland, and proximity of developed land, were strongly related to HCMs at both a metropolitan and national scale and, therefore, may be effective land-use management options in addition to wholesale impervious-area reduction.

Milwaukee-Green Bay; Boston; Raleigh; Atlanta; Bir↗

A validation of satellite derived cyanobacteria detections with state reported events and recreation advisories across U.S. lakes

Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) negatively affect ecological, human, and animal health. Traditional methods of validating satellite algorithms with data from water samples are often inhibited by the expense of quantifying cyanobacteria indicators in the field and the lack of public data. However, state recreation advisories and other recorded events of cyanoHAB occurrence reported by local authorities can serve as an independent and publicly available dataset for validation. State recreation advisories were defined as a period delimited by a start and end date where a warning was issued due to detections of cyanoHABs over a state's risk threshold. State reported events were defined as any event that was documented with a single date related to cyanoHABs. This study examined the presence-absence agreement between 160 state reported cyanoHAB advisories and 1,343 events and cyanobacteria biomass estimated by a satellite algorithm called the Cyanobacteria Index (CI cyano ). The true positive rate of agreement with state recreation advisories was 69% and 60% with state reported events. CI cyano detected a reduction or absence in cyanobacteria after 76% of the recreation advisories ended. CI cyano was used to quantify the magnitude, spatial extent, and temporal frequency of cyanoHABs; each of these three metrics were greater ( r > 0.2) during state recreation advisories compared to non-advisory times with effect sizes ranging from small to large. This is the first study to quantitatively evaluate satellite algorithm performance for detecting cyanoHABs with state reported events and advisories and supports informed management decisions with satellite technologies that complement traditional field observations.

Harmful Algae↗

Analysis of body condition indices reveals different ecotypes of the Antillean manatee

Assessing the body condition of wild animals is necessary to monitor the health of the population and is critical to defining a framework for conservation actions. Body condition indices (BCIs) are a non-invasive and relatively simple means to assess the health of individual animals, useful for addressing a wide variety of ecological, behavioral, and management questions. The Antillean manatee ( Trichechus manatus manatus ) is an endangered subspecies of the West Indian manatee, facing a wide variety of threats from mostly human-related origins. Our objective was to define specific BCIs for the subspecies that, coupled with additional health, genetic and demographic information, can be valuable to guide management decisions. Biometric measurements of 380 wild Antillean manatees captured in seven different locations within their range of distribution were obtained. From this information, we developed three BCIs (BCI 1 = UG/SL, BCI 2 = W/SL 3 , BCI 3 = W/(SL*UG 2 )). Linear models and two-way ANCOVA tests showed significant differences of the BCIs among sexes and locations. Although our three BCIs are suitable for Antillean manatees, BCI 1 is more practical as it does not require information about weight, which can be a metric logistically difficult to collect under particular circumstances. BCI 1 was significantly different among environments, revealing that the phenotypic plasticity of the subspecies have originated at least two ecotypes—coastal marine and riverine—of Antillean manatees.

Puerto Rico↗

Quantifying restoration success and recovery in a metal-polluted stream: A 17-year assessment of physicochemical and biological responses

Evaluating the effectiveness of stream restoration is often challenging because of the lack of pre-treatment data, narrow focus on physicochemical measures and insufficient post-restoration monitoring. Even when these fundamental elements are present, quantifying restoration success is difficult because of the challenges associated with distinguishing treatment effects from seasonal variation, episodic events and long-term climatic changes.2. We report results of one of the most comprehensive and continuous records of physical, chemical and biological data available to assess restoration success for a stream ecosystem in North America. Over a 17 year period we measured seasonal and annual changes in metal concentrations, physicochemical characteristics, macroinvertebrate communities, and brown trout Salmo trutta populations in the Arkansas River, a metal-contaminated stream in Colorado, USA.3. Although we observed significant improvements in water quality after treatment, the effectiveness of restoration varied temporally, spatially and among biological response variables. The fastest recovery was observed at stations where restoration eliminated point sources of metal contamination. Recovery of macroinvertebrates was significantly delayed at some stations because of residual sediment contamination and because extreme seasonal and episodic variation in metal concentrations prevented recolonization by sensitive species. Synthesis and applications. Because recovery trajectories after the removal of a stressor are often complex or nonlinear, long-term studies are necessary to assess restoration success within the context of episodic events and changes in regional climate. The observed variation in recovery among chemical and biological endpoints highlights the importance of developing objective criteria to assess restoration success. Although the rapid response of macroinvertebrates to reduced metal concentrations is encouraging, we have previously demonstrated that benthic communities from the Arkansas River remained susceptible to other novel anthropogenic stressors. We suggest that the resistance or resilience of benthic macroinvertebrate communities to novel stressors may be effective indicators of restoration success that can account for the non-additive (e.g. synergistic) nature of compound perturbations. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2010 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Atlantic reef fish biogeography and evolution

Aim: To understand why and when areas of endemism (provinces) of the tropical Atlantic Ocean were formed, how they relate to each other, and what processes have contributed to faunal enrichment. Location: Atlantic Ocean. Methods: The distributions of 2605 species of reef fishes were compiled for 25 areas of the Atlantic and southern Africa. Maximum-parsimony and distance analyses were employed to investigate biogeographical relationships among those areas. A collection of 26 phylogenies of various Atlantic reef fish taxa was used to assess patterns of origin and diversification relative to evolutionary scenarios based on spatio-temporal sequences of species splitting produced by geological and palaeoceanographic events. We present data on faunal (species and genera) richness, endemism patterns, diversity buildup (i.e. speciation processes), and evaluate the operation of the main biogeographical barriers and/or filters. Results: Phylogenetic (proportion of sister species) and distributional (number of shared species) patterns are generally concordant with recognized biogeographical provinces in the Atlantic. The highly uneven distribution of species in certain genera appears to be related to their origin, with highest species richness in areas with the greatest phylogenetic depth. Diversity buildup in Atlantic reef fishes involved (1) diversification within each province, (2) isolation as a result of biogeographical barriers, and (3) stochastic accretion by means of dispersal between provinces. The timing of divergence events is not concordant among taxonomic groups. The three soft (non-terrestrial) inter-regional barriers (mid-Atlantic, Amazon, and Benguela) clearly act as 'filters' by restricting dispersal but at the same time allowing occasional crossings that apparently lead to the establishment of new populations and species. Fluctuations in the effectiveness of the filters, combined with ecological differences among provinces, apparently provide a mechanism for much of the recent diversification of reef fishes in the Atlantic. Main conclusions: Our data set indicates that both historical events (e.g. Tethys closure) and relatively recent dispersal (with or without further speciation) have had a strong influence on Atlantic tropical marine biodiversity and have contributed to the biogeographical patterns we observe today; however, examples of the latter process outnumber those of the former. ?? 2007 The Authors.

Journal of Biogeography↗

Migratory bird pathways and the Gulf of Mexico: Importance of Louisiana's coast

Because of its geographic position, Louisiana plays an important role in the hemispheric-scale phenomenon known as the Nearctic-Neotropical bird migration system. Each year millions of landbirds migrate across or near to the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Birds migrate in large, broad fronts that sometimes exceed 2 million individuals, and there is an advantage for them to take a direct north-south route (the shortest distance). During migration seasons, nearly all of the migratory landbird species of the eastern United States, as well as many western species, use the coastal plains of the western gulf. Spring migrants arrive with depleted energy reserves and depend on Louisiana's coastal habitats to provide food and cover after long gulf crossings. Fall migrants depend on Louisiana’s coastal habitats for food to store fat reserves just prior to gulf crossings in autumn. Mortality during the migratory period can be high. Recent research on the black-throated blue warbler ( Dendroica caerulescens ) indicates that more than 85% of the annual mortality for the species occurs during migration. Migrants en route tend to concentrate in habitats adjacent to ecological barriers; DOI land managers need to identify key coastal landscape features that are important to these birds. Because of the vastness of the North American continent, it is nearly impossible to delineate movement patterns and migration pathways by using traditional ground-based surveys.

Fact Sheet↗

White-nose syndrome in bats: U.S. Geological Survey updates

White-nose syndrome (WNS) is a devastating disease that has killed millions of hibernating bats since it first appeared in New York in 2007 and has spread at an alarming rate from the northeastern to the central United States and Canada. The disease is named for the white fungus Geomyces destructans that infects the skin of the muzzle, ears, and wings of hibernating bats. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC), the USGS Fort Collins Science Center, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and other partners continue to play a primary role in WNS research. Studies conducted at the NWHC led to the discovery (Blehert and others, 2009), characterization, and naming (Gargas and others, 2009) of the cold-loving fungus G. destructans and to the development of standardized criteria for diagnosing the disease (Meteyer and others, 2009). Additionally, scientists at the NWHC have pioneered laboratory techniques for studying the effects of the fungus on hibernating bats (Lorch and others, 2011). To determine if bats are affected by white-nose syndrome, scientists look for a characteristic microscopic pattern of skin erosion caused by G. destructans (Meteyer and others, 2009). Field signs of WNS can include visible white fungal growth on the bat's muzzle, wings, or both, but these signs alone are not a reliable disease indicator - laboratory examination and testing are required for disease confirmation. Infected bats also arouse from hibernation more frequently than uninfected bats (Warnecke and others, 2012) and often display abnormal behaviors in their hibernation sites, such as congregating at or near cave openings and daytime flights during winter. These abnormal behaviors may contribute to the bat's accelerated consumption of stored fat reserves, causing emaciation, a characteristic documented in some of the bats that die with WNS. During hibernation, bats likely have lowered immunity (Bouma and others, 2010), which may facilitate the ability of G. destructans to colonize and damage large areas of wing membrane (fig. 2). A current hypothesis suggests that erosion or ulceration of wing membrane caused by the fungus has the potential to alter the physiology of hibernating bats, resulting in fatal disruption of hydration, electrolyte balance, circulation, and thermoregulation (Cryan and others, 2010). Current estimates of bat population declines in the northeastern United States since the emergence of WNS are over 80 percent (Turner and others, 2011). This sudden and widespread mortality associated with WNS is unprecedented in hibernating bats, among which large-scale disease outbreaks have not been previously documented. It is unlikely that species of bats affected by WNS will recover quickly because most are long-lived and have only a single pup per year. Consequently, repopulation after widespread mortality of breeding adults will be a slow process. Worldwide, bats play essential roles as pollinators, seed dispersers, and as primary consumers of insects. The true ecological consequences of the recent large-scale reductions in populations of hibernating bats are not yet known. However, farmers might feel the impact. A recent economic analysis indicated that insect control services (ecosystem services) provided by bats to U.S. agriculture is valued between 4 to 50 billion dollars nationwide per year (Boyles and others, 2011). The number of North American bats estimated to have died from WNS thus far had the capacity to consume up to 8,000 tons of insects per year (Boyles and others, 2011). The area of North America affected by WNS continues to expand. Within the last 2 years, the disease has been confirmed in several Central States, including Alabama, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Tennessee, and Missouri. High mortality of bats has not yet been reported at these locations, and it remains to be seen if WNS will develop and manifest in other States with the same severity as that in the Northeast.

Alabama;Connecticut;Delaware;Illinois;Indiana;Iowa↗

Part 4. Submarine topography and shoal-water ecology

The topography of the sea floor within 10 miles of Saipan broadly resembles that of the land. Eastward, toward the Mariana trench, slopes are about 6&deg;, without prominent benches or scarps. This is inferred to indicate easterly continuation of generally pyroclastic bedrock. The westward slope averages 2&deg; to 3&deg; and consists mainly of nearly flat benches and westfacing scarps. This is taken to imply westward continuation of a limestone bench-and-fault-scarp topography. Projection of known faults to sea and through Tinian, on the basis of topographic trends, suggests a pattern of west-dipping normal faults that parallel the strike of the Mariana ridge and affect the shape and position of islands at the crest of the ridge.

Professional Paper↗

Flexible characterization of animal movement pattern using net squared displacement and a latent state model

Background Characterizing the movement patterns of animals is an important step in understanding their ecology. Various methods have been developed for classifying animal movement at both coarse (e.g., migratory vs. sedentary behavior) and fine (e.g., resting vs. foraging) scales. A popular approach for classifying movements at coarse resolutions involves fitting time series of net-squared displacement (NSD) to models representing different conceptualizations of coarse movement strategies (i.e., migration, nomadism, sedentarism, etc.). However, the performance of this method in classifying actual (as opposed to simulated) animal movements has been mixed. Here, we develop a more flexible method that uses the same NSD input, but relies on an underlying discrete latent state model. Using simulated data, we first assess how well patterns in the number of transitions between modes of movement and the duration of time spent in a mode classify movement strategies. We then apply our approach to elucidate variability in the movement strategies of eight giant tortoises ( Chelonoidis sp.) using a multi-year (2009&ndash;2014) GPS dataset from three different Galapagos Islands. Results With respect to patterns of time spent and the number of transitions between modes, our approach out-performed previous efforts to distinguish among migration, dispersal, and sedentary behavior. We documented marked inter-individual variation in giant tortoise movement strategies, with behaviors indicating migration, dispersal, nomadism and sedentarism, as well as hybrid behaviors such as &ldquo;exploratory residence&rdquo;. Conclusions Distilling complex animal movement into discrete modes remains a fundamental challenge in movement ecology, a problem made more complex by the ever-longer duration, ever-finer resolution, and gap-ridden trajectories recorded by GPS devices. By clustering into modes, we derived information on the time spent within one mode and the number of transitions between modes which enabled finer differentiation of movement strategies over previous methods. Ultimately, the techniques developed here address limitations of previous approaches and provide greater insights with respect to characterization of movement strategies across scales by more fully utilizing long-term GPS telemetry datasets.

Movement Ecology↗

Environmental Escherichia coli : Ecology and public health implications - A review

Escherichia coli is classified as a rod-shaped, Gram-negative bacterium in the family Enterobacteriaceae . The bacterium mainly inhabits the lower intestinal tract of warm-blooded animals, including humans, and is often discharged into the environment through feces or wastewater effluent. The presence of E. coli in environmental waters has long been considered as an indicator of recent fecal pollution. However, numerous recent studies have reported that some specific strains of E. coli can survive for long periods of time, and potentially reproduce, in extra-intestinal environments. This indicates that E. coli can be integrated into indigenous microbial communities in the environment. This naturalization phenomenon calls into question the reliability of E. coli as a fecal indicator bacterium (FIB). Recently, many studies reported that E. coli populations in the environment are affected by ambient environmental conditions affecting their long-term survival. Large-scale studies of population genetics provide the diversity and complexity of E. coli strains in various environments, affected by multiple environmental factors. This review examines the current knowledge on the ecology of E. coli strains in various environments in regards to its role as a FIB and as a naturalized member of indigenous microbial communities. Special emphasis is given on the growth of pathogenic E. coli in the environment, and the population genetics of environmental members of the genus Escherichia . The impact of environmental E. coli on water quality and public health is also discussed.

Journal of Applied Microbiology↗

Seabird behavior as an indicator of food supplies: Sensitivity across the breeding season

We used empirical data on the time allocation of common murres Uria aalge in relation to measures of local prey density to examine whether adults provisioning chicks are more sensitive to changes in prey density than birds that are incubating eggs. We hypothesized that seasonal differences in food requirements of incubating and chick-rearing parents would affect the form of the relationship between time spent at the colony and local food density. We found that the relationship did differ between the incubation and chick-rearing period in 3 important ways: (1) there was a strong non-linear relationship between food density and colony attendance during chick-rearing and a weaker relationship during incubation; (2) incubating birds were able to maintain relatively constant rates of attendance over a wider range of food densities than chick-rearing birds and only reduced colony attendance under extremely poor feeding conditions, if at all; and (3) incubating birds spent more time attending nest sites at the colony than provisioning birds. These differences confirmed that chick-rearing parents are more sensitive to changes in food density than incubating parents, and that measurements of time allocation during the incubation period would have limited value as an indicator of ecosystem change. ?? Inter-Research 2007.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

Sexual dimorphism and feeding ecology of Diamond-backed Terrapins ( Malaclemys terrapin )

Natural and sexual selection are frequently invoked as causes of sexual size dimorphism in animals. Many species of turtles, including the Diamond-backed Terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin), exhibit sexual dimorphism in body size, possibly enabling the sexes to exploit different resources and reduce intraspecific competition. Female terrapins not only have larger body sizes but also disproportionately larger skulls and jaws relative to males. To better understand the relationship between skull morphology and terrapin feeding ecology, we measured the in-lever to out-lever ratios of 27 male and 33 female terrapin jaws to evaluate biomechanics of the trophic apparatus. In addition, we measured prey handling times by feeding Fiddler Crabs (Uca pugnax), a natural prey item, to 24 terrapins in the laboratory. Our results indicate that although females have disproportionately larger heads, they have similar in:out lever ratios to males, suggesting that differences in adductor muscle mass are more important in determining bite force than jaw in:out lever ratios. Females also had considerably reduced prey handling times. Understanding the factors affecting terrapin feeding ecology can illuminate the potential roles male and female terrapins play as top-down predators that regulate grazing of Periwinkle Snails (Littorina irrorata) on Cord Grass (Spartina alterniflora).

Herpetologica↗

The area under the precision‐recall curve as a performance metric for rare binary events

Species distribution models are used to study biogeographic patterns and guide decision‐making. The variable quality of these models makes it critical to assess whether a model's outputs are suitable for the intended use, but commonly used evaluation approaches are inappropriate for many ecological contexts. In particular, unrealistically high performance assessments have been associated with models for rare species and predictions over large geographic extents. We evaluated the area under the precision‐recall curve (AUC‐PR) as a performance metric for rare binary events, focusing on the assessment of species distribution models. Precision is the probability that a species is present given a predicted presence, while recall (more commonly called sensitivity) is the probability the model predicts presence in locations where the species has been observed. We simulated species at three levels of prevalence, compared AUC‐PR and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC‐ROC) when the geographic extent of predictions was increased and assessed how well each metric reflected a model's utility to guide surveys for new populations. AUC‐PR was robust to species rarity and, unlike AUC‐ROC, not affected by an increasing geographic extent. The major advantages of AUC‐PR arise because it does not incorporate correctly predicted absences and is therefore less prone to exaggerate model performance for unbalanced datasets. AUC‐PR and precision were useful indicators of a model's utility for guiding surveys. We show that AUC‐PR has important advantages for evaluating models of rare species, and its benefits in the context of unbalanced binary responses will make it applicable for other ecological studies. By not considering the true negative quadrant of the confusion matrix, AUC‐PR ameliorates issues that arise when the geographic extent is increased beyond the species’ range or when a large number of background points are used when absence information is unavailable. However, no single metric captures all aspects of performance nor provides an absolute index that can be compared across datasets. Our results indicate AUC‐PR and precision can provide useful and intuitive metrics for evaluating a model's utility for guiding sampling, and can complement other metrics to help delineate a model's appropriate use.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

Predicting performance for ecological restoration: A case study using Spartina altemiflora

The success of population-based ecological restoration relies on the growth and reproductive performance of selected donor materials, whether consisting of whole plants or seed. Accurately predicting performance requires an understanding of a variety of underlying processes, particularly gene flow and selection, which can be measured, at least in part, using surrogates such as neutral marker genetic distances and simple latitudinal effects. Here we apply a structural equation modeling approach to understanding and predicting performance in a widespread salt marsh grass, Spartina alterniflora, commonly used for ecological restoration throughout its native range in North America. We collected source materials from throughout this range, consisting of eight clones each from 23 populations, for transplantation to a common garden site in coastal Louisiana and monitored their performance. We modeled performance as a latent process described by multiple indicator variables (e.g., clone diameter, stem number) and estimated direct and indirect influences of geographic and genetic distances on performance. Genetic distances were determined by comparison of neutral molecular markers with those from a local population at the common garden site. Geographic distance metrics included dispersal distance (the minimum distance over water between donor and experimental sites) and latitude. Model results indicate direct effects of genetic distance and latitude on performance variation among the donor sites. Standardized effect strengths indicate that performance was roughly twice as sensitive to variation in genetic distance as to latitudinal variation. Dispersal distance had an indirect influence on performance through effects on genetic distance, indicating a typical pattern of genetic isolation by distance. Latitude also had an indirect effect on genetic distance through its linear relationship with dispersal distance. Three performance indicators had significant loadings on performance alone (mean clone diameter, mean number of stems, mean number of inflorescences), while the performance indicators mean stem height and mean stem width were also influenced by latitude. We suggest that dispersal distance and latitude should provide an adequate means of predicting performance in future S. alterniflora restorations and propose a maximum sampling distance of 300 km (holding latitude constant) to avoid the sampling of inappropriate ecotypes. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗