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At least 775 records · Page 43Linked to original sources

Hurricane hazards — A national threat

Hurricanes bring destructive winds, storm surge, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes. A single storm can wreak havoc on coastal and inland communities and on natural areas over thousands of square miles. In 2005, Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma demonstrated the devastation that hurricanes can inflict and the importance of hurricane hazards research and preparedness. More than half of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of a coast, and this number is increasing. Many of these areas, especially the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, will be in the direct path of future hurricanes. Hawaii is also vulnerable to hurricanes.

Fact Sheet↗

Processing coastal imagery with Agisoft Metashape Professional Edition, version 1.6—Structure from motion workflow documentation

Introduction Structure from motion (SFM) has become an integral technique in coastal change assessment; the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used Agisoft Metashape Professional Edition photogrammetry software to develop a workflow that processes coastline aerial imagery collected in response to storms since Hurricane Florence in 2018. This report details step-by-step instructions to create three-dimensional (3D) spatial products from both singular and repeated collections of shoreline aerial imagery. The products can be used for real-time hazard guidance and future forecasting and recovery endeavors.

Open-File Report↗

Assessing recovery and change in West Africa's rainfall regime from a 161-year record

The Sahel region is known for the multi-decadal occurrence of severe drought that commenced in the late 1960s. A still open question is whether or not the region's rainfall has returned to “normal.” This paper provides a compelling answer to that question by examining the longest and most comprehensive gauge series for the region ever published. It extends from 1854 to 2014 and is based on 602 gauge records. A comparative series for the Guinea Coast region to the south is also presented, as the two regions collectively provide insight into the long-term variability of the West African monsoon. In contrast to many previous studies, here the question of recovery and regime change is not restricted to the core of the Sahelian rainy season (July–September), but is separately discussed also for the coastal phase (April–May), transition phase (June), Sahelian phase (July–September) and the second transition phase (October–November) of the West African monsoon. These analyses suggest that full recovery from the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s has not occurred that a major change in the rainfall regime occurred around 1968 and that since that time large-scale teleconnections have also changed markedly. The shift post-1968 is evident in all phases of the monsoon except the coastal phase, in which a change to drier conditions occurred a decade later. Overall, recovery has been greater in the east than in the west, creating a change in the climatological east–west rainfall gradient. The drier post-1968 conditions appear to be associated with a general weakening of the intensity of the West African monsoon and only a small southwards displacement of the rainfall maximum. These changes have strong implications for the future of this region and for seasonal prediction.

International Journal of Climatology↗

Community exposure to tsunami hazards in California

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to low-lying communities on the California coast. To reduce potential impacts of future tsunamis, officials need to understand how communities are vulnerable to tsunamis and where targeted outreach, preparedness, and mitigation efforts may be warranted. Although a maximum tsunami-inundation zone based on multiple sources has been developed for the California coast, the populations and businesses in this zone have not been documented in a comprehensive way. To support tsunami preparedness and risk-reduction planning in California, this study documents the variations among coastal communities in the amounts, types, and percentages of developed land, human populations, and businesses in the maximum tsunami-inundation zone. The tsunami-inundation zone includes land in 94 incorporated cities, 83 unincorporated communities, and 20 counties on the California coast. According to 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data, this tsunami-inundation zone contains 267,347 residents (1 percent of the 20-county resident population), of which 13 percent identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino, 14 percent identify themselves as Asian, 16 percent are more than 65 years in age, 12 percent live in unincorporated areas, and 51 percent of the households are renter occupied. Demographic attributes related to age, race, ethnicity, and household status of residents in tsunami-prone areas demonstrate substantial range among communities that exceed these regional averages. The tsunami-inundation zone in several communities also has high numbers of residents in institutionalized and noninstitutionalized group quarters (for example, correctional facilities and military housing, respectively). Communities with relatively high values in the various demographic categories are identified throughout the report. The tsunami-inundation zone contains significant nonresidential populations based on 2011 economic data from Infogroup (2011), including 168,565 employees (2 percent of the 20-county labor force) at 15,335 businesses that generate approximately $30 billion in annual sales. Although the regional percentage of at-risk employees is low, certain communities, such as Belvedere, Alameda, and Crescent City, have high percentages of their local workforce in the tsunami-inundation zone. Employees in the tsunami-inundation zone are primarily in businesses associated with tourism (for example, accommodations, food services, and retail trade) and shipping (for example, transportation and warehousing, manufacturing, and wholesale trade), although the dominance of these sectors varies substantially among the 94 cities. Although the number of occupants is not known for each site, the tsunami-inundation zone contains numerous dependent-population facilities, such as schools and child daycare centers, which may have individuals with limited mobility. The tsunami-inundation zone includes a substantial number of facilities that provide community services, such as banks, religious organizations, and grocery stores, where local residents may be unaware of evacuation procedures if previous awareness efforts focused on home preparedness. There are also numerous recreational areas in the tsunami-inundation zone, such as amusement parks, marinas, city and county beaches, and State and national parks, which attract visitors who may not be aware of tsunami hazards or evacuation procedures. During peak summer months, estimated daily attendance at city and county beaches can be approximately six times larger than the total number of residents in the tsunami-inundation zone. Community exposure to tsunamis in California varies considerably—some communities may experience great losses that reflect only a small part of their community and others may experience relatively small losses that devastate them. Among 94 incorporated communities and the remaining unincorporated areas of the 20 coastal counties, the communities of Alameda, Oakland, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Huntington Beach, and San Diego have the highest number of people and businesses in the tsunami-inundation zone. The communities of Belvedere, Alameda, Crescent City, Emeryville, Seal Beach, and Sausalito have the highest percentages of people and businesses in this zone. On the basis of a composite index, the cities of Alameda, Belvedere, Crescent City, Emeryville, Oakland, and Long Beach have the highest combinations of the number and percentage of people and businesses in tsunami-prone areas.

California↗

A complex-systems approach to predicting effects of sea level rise and nitrogen loading on nitrogen cycling in coastal wetland ecosystems

To effectively manage coastal ecosystems, we need an improvedunderstanding of how tidal marsh ecosystem services will respond to sea-level rise and increased nitrogen (N) loading to coastal areas. Here we review existing literature to better understand how these interacting perturbations s will likely impact N removal by tidal marshes. We propose that the keyy factors controlling long-term changes in N removal are plant-community changes, soil accretion rates, surface-subsurface flow paths, marsh geomorphology microbial communities, and substrates for microbial reactions. Feedbacks affecting relative elevations and sediment accretion ratess will serve as dominant controls on future N removal throughout the marsh. Given marsh persistence, we hypothesize that the processes dominating N removal will vary laterally across the marsh and longitudinallyalong the estuarine gradient. In salt marsh interiors, where nitrate reduction rates are often limited by delivery of nitrate to bacterial communities, reductions in groundwater discharge due to sea level rise may trigger a net reduction in N removal. In freshwater marshes, we expect a decreasee in N removal efficiency due to increased sulfide concentrations. Sulfide encroachment will increase the relative importance of dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium and lead to greater bacterial nitrogen immobilization, ultimately resulting in an ecosystem that retains more N and is less effective at permanent N removal from the watershed. In contrast, we predict that sealevel–driven expansion of the tidal creek network and the degree of surface-subsurface exchange flux through tidal creek banks will result in greater N-removal efficiency from these locations.

Book chapter↗

Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-based models predict survival under a wide range of future sea level scenarios. We argue that marsh vulnerability tends to be overstated because assessment methods often fail to consider biophysical feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, and the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

Nature Climate Change↗

Storage of treated sewage effluent and stormwater in a saline aquifer, Pinellas Peninsula, Florida

The Pinellas Peninsula, an area of 750 square kilometres (290 square miles) in coastal west-central Florida, is a small hydrogeologic replica of Florida. Most of the Peninsula's water supply is imported from well fields as much as 65 kilometres (40 miles) inland. Stresses on the hydrologic environment of the Peninsula and on adjacent water bodies, resulting from intensive water-resources development and waste discharge, have resulted in marked interest in subsurface storage of waste water (treated effluent and untreated storm water) and in future retrieval of the stored water for nonpotable use. If subsurface storage is approved by regulatory agencies, as much as 265 megalitres per day (70 million gallons a day) of waste water could be stored underground within a few years, and more than 565 megalitres per day (150 million gallons a day) could be stored in about 25 years. This storage would constitute a large resource of nearly fresh water in the saline aquifers underlying about 520 square kilometres (200 square miles) of the Peninsula. The upper 1,060 metres (3,480 feet) of the rock column underlying four test sites on the Pinellas Peninsula have been explored. The rocks consist chiefly of limestone and dolomite. Three moderately to highly transmissive zones, separated by leaky confining beds, (low permeability limestone) from about 225 to 380 metres (740 to 1,250 feet) below mean sea level, have been identified in the lower part of the Floridan aquifer in the Avon Park Limestone. Results of withdrawal and injection tests in Pinellas County indicate that the middle transmissive zone has the highest estimated transmissivity-about 10 times other reported values. The chloride concentration of water in this zone, as well as in the two other transmissive zones in the Avon Park Limestone in Pinellas Peninsula, is about 19,000 milligrams per litre. If subsurface storage is approved and implemented, this middle zone probably would be used for storage of the waste water and the zone would become the most extensively used in Florida for this purpose.

Groundwater↗

Porphyry copper assessment of the Mesozoic of East Asia: China, Vietnam, North Korea, Mongolia, and Russia: Chapter G in Global mineral resource assessment

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborated with the China Geological Survey (CGS) to conduct a mineral resource assessment of Mesozoic porphyry copper deposits in East Asia. This area hosts several very large porphyry deposits, exemplified by the Dexing deposit in eastern China that contains more than 8,000,000 metric tons of copper. In addition, large parts of the area are undergoing active exploration and are likely to contain undiscovered porphyry copper deposits. Three tracts were delineated to be permissive for Mesozoic porphyry copper deposits in East Asia: the Manchuride, Coastal Pacific, and East Qinling tracts, all Jurassic through Cretaceous in age. The tracts are based on mapped and inferred subsurface distributions of igneous rocks that define areas where the occurrence of porphyry copper deposits is possible. These tracts range in area from about 170,000 to about 1,400,000 km 2 . Although maps at a variety of scales were used in the assessment, the final tract boundaries are intended for use at a scale of 1:1,000,000. These Mesozoic deposits in East Asia all formed in post-subduction environments, environments newly recognized as permissive for the occurrence of porphyry copper deposits. Based on the grade, tonnage, and geologic characteristics of the known deposits, two tracts, Manchuride and Coastal Pacific, were evaluated using the general (Cu-Mo-Au) porphyry copper grade and tonnage model. The East Qinling tract was evaluated using the molybdenum-rich (Cu-Mo) model. Assessment participants estimated numbers of undiscovered deposits at different levels of confidence for each permissive tract. These estimates were then combined with the selected grade and tonnage models using Monte Carlo simulation to generate quantitative probabilistic estimates of undiscovered resources. Resources in future extensions of deposits with identified resources were not specifically evaluated. Assessment results, presented in tables and graphs, show mean amounts of metal and rock in undiscovered deposits at different quantile levels, as well as the arithmetic mean for each tract. This assessment estimated a mean total of about 44 undiscovered porphyry copper deposits within the assessed permissive tracts in East Asia. This represents nearly 4 times the 12 known deposits. Predicted mean (arithmetic) resources that could be associated with these undiscovered deposits are about 198,000,000 metric tons (t) of copper and about 3,900 t of gold, as well as byproduct molybdenum and silver. The reported identified resources for those 12 known deposits total about 23,000,000 t of copper and about 850 t of gold. The assessment area is estimated to contain nearly nine times as much copper in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits as has been identified to date. This report includes an overview of the assessment results and summary tables. Descriptions of each tract are included in appendixes, with estimates of numbers of undiscovered deposits, and probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper, molybdenum, gold, and silver that could be contained in undiscovered deposits for each permissive tract. A geographic information system that accompanies the report includes tract boundaries and a database of known porphyry copper deposits and prospects.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Successful integration efforts in water quality from the integrated Ocean Observing System Regional Associations and the National Water Quality Monitoring Network

The Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS ® ) Regional Associations and Interagency Partners hosted a water quality workshop in January 2010 to discuss issues of nutrient enrichment and dissolved oxygen depletion (hypoxia), harmful algal blooms (HABs), and beach water quality. In 2007, the National Water Quality Monitoring Council piloted demonstration projects as part of the National Water Quality Monitoring Network (Network) for U.S. Coastal Waters and their Tributaries in three IOOS Regional Associations, and these projects are ongoing. Examples of integrated science-based solutions to water quality issues of major concern from the IOOS regions and Network demonstration projects are explored in this article. These examples illustrate instances where management decisions have benefited from decision-support tools that make use of interoperable data. Gaps, challenges, and outcomes are identified, and a proposal is made for future work toward a multiregional water quality project for beach water quality.

Marine Technology Society Journal↗

Estimates of future inundation of salt marshes in response to sea-level rise in and around Acadia National Park, Maine

Salt marshes are ecosystems that provide many important ecological functions in the Gulf of Maine. The U.S. Geological Survey investigated salt marshes in and around Acadia National Park from Penobscot Bay to the Schoodic Peninsula to map the potential for landward migration of marshes using a static inundation model of a sea-level rise scenario of 60 centimeters (cm; 2 feet). The resulting inundation contours can be used by resource managers to proactively adapt to sea-level rise by identifying and targeting low-lying coastal areas adjacent to salt marshes for conservation or further investigation, and to identify risks to infrastructure in the coastal zone. For this study, the mapping of static inundation was based on digital elevation models derived from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) topographic data collected in October 2010. Land-surveyed control points were used to evaluate the accuracy of the LiDAR data in the study area, yielding a root mean square error of 11.3 cm. An independent accuracy assessment of the LiDAR data specific to salt-marsh land surfaces indicated a root mean square error of 13.3 cm and 95-percent confidence interval of ± 26.0 cm. LiDAR-derived digital elevation models and digital color aerial photography, taken during low tide conditions in 2008, with a pixel resolution of 0.5 meters, were used to identify the highest elevation of the land surface at each salt marsh in the study area. Inundation contours for 60-cm of sea-level rise were delineated above the highest marsh elevation for each marsh. Confidence interval contours (95-percent,± 26.0 cm) were delineated above and below the 60-cm inundation contours, and artificial structures, such as roads and bridges, that may present barriers to salt-marsh migration were mapped. This study delineated 114 salt marshes totaling 340 hectares (ha), ranging in size from 0.11 ha (marshes less than 0.2 ha were mapped only if they were on Acadia National Park property) to 52 ha, with a median size of 1.0 ha. Inundation contours were mapped at 110 salt marshes. Approximately 350 ha of low-lying upland areas adjacent to these marshes will be inundated with 60 cm of sea-level rise. Many of these areas are currently freshwater wetlands. There are potential barriers to marsh migration at 27 of the 114 marshes. Although only 23 percent of the salt marshes in the study are on ANP property, about half of the upland areas that will be inundated are within ANP; most of the predicted inundated uplands (approximately 170 ha) include freshwater wetlands in the Northeast Creek and Bass Harbor Marsh areas. Most of the salt marshes analyzed do not have a significant amount of upland area available for migration. Seventy-five percent of the salt marshes have 20 meters or less of adjacent upland that would be inundated along most of their edges. All inundation contours, salt marsh locations, potential barriers, and survey data are stored in geospatial files for use in a geographic information system and are a part of this report.

Maine↗

The use of passive membrane samplers to assess organic contaminant inputs at five coastal sites in west Maui, Hawaii

Five passive membrane samplers were deployed for 28 continuous days at select sites along and near the west Maui coastline to assess organic compounds and contaminant inputs to diverse, shallow coral reef ecosystems. Daily and weekly fluctuations in such inputs were captured on the membranes using integrative sampling. The distribution of organic compounds observed at these five coastal sites showed considerable variation; with high concentrations of terrestrially sourced organic compounds such as C29 sterols and high molecular weight n -alkanes at the strongly groundwater-influenced Kahekili vent site. In comparison, the coastal sites were presumably influenced more by seasonal surface and stream water runoff and therefore had marine-sourced organic compounds and fewer pharmaceuticals and personal care products. The direct correlation to upstream land-use practices was not obvious and may require additional wet-season sampling. Pharmaceuticals and personal care products as well as flame retardants were detected at all sites, and the Kahekili vent site had the highest number of detections. Planned future work must also determine the organic compound and contaminant concentrations adsorbed onto water column particulate matter, because it may also be an important vector for contaminant transport to coral reef ecosystems. The impact of contaminants per individual (such as fecundity and metabolism) as well as per community (such as species abundance and diversity) is necessary for an accurate assessment of environmental stress. Results presented herein provide current contaminant inputs to select nearshore environments along the west Maui coastline captured during the dry season, and they can be useful to aid potential future evaluations and (or) comparisons.

Hawaii↗

The importance of wetland carbon dynamics to society: Insight from the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Science Report

The Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2) culminated in 19 chapters that spanned all North American sectors – from Energy Systems to Agriculture and Land Use – known to be important for understanding carbon (C) cycling and accounting. Wetlands, both inland and coastal, were found to be significant components of C fluxes along the terrestrial to aquatic hydrologic continuum. In this chapter, we synthesize the role of wetlands in the overall C footprint of North America (from Canada to Mexico) as one metric of the societal values placed on these terrestrial-aquatic interfaces. We also summarize the effects of management activities and climate change on the wetland C cycle and give some perspectives on the current and future importance of wetlands to society.

Geophysical Monograph Series↗

Transient simulations of nitrogen load for a coastal aquifer and embayment, Cape Cod, MA

A time-varying, multispecies, modular, three-dimensional transport model (MT3DMS) was developed to simulate groundwater transport of nitrogen from increasing sources on land to the shore of Nauset Marsh, a coastal embayment of the Cape Cod National Seashore. Simulated time-dependent nitrogen loads at the coast can be used to correlate with current observed coastal eutrophic effects, to predict current and ultimate effects of development, and to predict loads resulting from source remediation. A time-varying nitrogen load, corrected for subsurface loss, was applied to the land subsurface in the transport model based on five land-use coverages documenting increasing development from 1951 to 1999. Simulated nitrogen loads to Nauset Marsh increased from 230 kg/yr before 1930 to 4390 kg/yr in 2001 to 7130 kg/yr in 2100, assuming future nitrogen sources constant at the 1999 land-use rate. The simulated nitrogen load per area of embayment was 5 times greater for Salt Pond, a eutrophic landward extension of Nauset Marsh, than for other Nauset Marsh areas. Sensitivity analysis indicated that load results were little affected by changes in vertical discretization and annual recharge but much affected by the nitrogen loss rate assumed for a kettle lake downgradient from a landfill.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

A synthesis of plant mass mortality events in coastal ecosystems

Around the world, mass mortality events are disrupting the ecological and economic stability of shorelines. To better understand mechanisms of mass mortality in coastal ecosystems, we provide a global synthesis of over 250 reports of plant mass mortality events in six coastal ecosystems: coastal freshwater forests, tidal freshwater marshes, salt marshes, mangrove forests, seagrass meadows, and kelp forests, highlighting commonalities. Mass mortality events were associated with both climate and land-use change drivers in all six coastal ecosystems. Furthermore, increases in disturbance intensity and frequency, including climate extremes, and compound disturbances were key aspects of mass mortality events. Land-use change disturbances that altered hydrology, nutrient availability, and trophic structure often interacted with climate stressors, leading to mass mortality events. Therefore, beyond global climate mitigation, remediating local land-use disturbances represents a tractable opportunity for intervention. Insights from this synthesis may help managers to anticipate mass mortality events and prevent future habitat loss.

BioScience↗

Preliminary assessment of channel stability and bed-material transport in the Tillamook Bay tributaries and Nehalem River basin, northwestern Oregon

This report summarizes a preliminary study of bed-material transport, vertical and lateral channel changes, and existing datasets for the Tillamook (drainage area 156 square kilometers [km 2 ]), Trask (451 km 2 ), Wilson (500 km 2 ), Kilchis (169 km 2 ), Miami (94 km 2 ), and Nehalem (2,207 km 2 ) Rivers along the northwestern Oregon coast. This study, conducted in coopera-tion with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Oregon Department of State Lands to inform permitting decisions regarding instream gravel mining, revealed that: Study areas along the six rivers can be divided into reaches based on tidal influence and topography. The fluvial (nontidal or dominated by riverine processes) reaches vary in length (2.4-9.3 kilometer [km]), gradient (0.0011-0.0075 meter of elevation change per meter of channel length [m/m]), and bed-material composition (a mixture of alluvium and intermittent bedrock outcrops to predominately alluvium). In fluvial reaches, unit bar area (square meter of bar area per meter of channel length [m 2 /m]) as mapped from 2009 photographs ranged from 7.1 m 2 /m on the Tillamook River to 27.9 m 2 /m on the Miami River. In tidal reaches, all six rivers flow over alluvial deposits, but have varying gradients (0.0001-0.0013 m/m) and lengths affected by tide (1.3-24.6 km). The Miami River has the steepest and shortest tidal reach and the Nehalem River has the flattest and longest tidal reach. Bars in the tidal reaches are generally composed of sand and mud. Unit bar area was greatest in the Tidal Nehalem Reach, where extensive mud flats flank the lower channel. Background factors such as valley and channel confinement, basin geology, channel slope, and tidal extent control the spatial variation in the accumulation and texture of bed material. Presently, the Upper Fluvial Wilson and Miami Reaches and Fluvial Nehalem Reach have the greatest abundance of gravel bars, likely owing to local bed-material sources in combination with decreasing channel gradient and valley confinement. Natural and human-caused disturbances such as mass movements, logging, fire, channel modifications for navigation and flood control, and gravel mining also have varying effects on channel condition, bed-material transport, and distribution and area of bars throughout the study areas and over time. Existing datasets include at least 16 and 18 sets of aerial and orthophotographs that were taken of the study areas in the Tillamook Bay tributary basins and Nehalem River basin, respectively, from 1939 to 2011. These photographs are available for future assessments of long-term changes in channel condition, bar area, and vegetation establishment patterns. High resolution Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) surveys acquired in 2007-2009 could support future quantitative analyses of channel morphology and bed-material transport in all study areas. A review of deposited and mined gravel volumes reported for instream gravel mining sites shows that bed-material deposition tends to rebuild mined bar surfaces in most years. Mean annual deposition volumes on individual bars exceeded 3,000 cubic meters (m 3 ) on Donaldson Bar on the Wilson River, Dill Bar on the Kilchis River, and Plant and Winslow Bars on the Nehalem River. Cumulative reported volumes of bed-material deposition were greatest at Donaldson and Dill Bars, totaling over 25,000 m 3 per site from 2004 to 2011. Within this period, reported cumulative mined volumes were greatest for the Donaldson, Plant, and Winslow Bars, ranging from 24,470 to 33,940 m 3 . Analysis of historical stage-streamflow data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey on the Wilson River near Tillamook (14301500) and Nehalem River near Foss (14301000) shows that these rivers have episodically aggraded and incised, mostly following high flow events, but they do not exhibit systematic, long-term trends in bed elevation. Multiple cross sections show that channels near bridge crossings in all six study areas are dynamic with many subject to incision and aggradation as well as lateral shifts in thalweg position and bank deposition and erosion. In fluvial reaches, unit bar area declined a net 5.3-83.6 percent from 1939 to 2009. The documented reduction in bar area may be attributable to several factors, including vegetation establishment and stabilization of formerly active bar surfaces, lateral channel changes and resulting alterations in sediment deposition and erosion patterns, and streamflow and/or tide differences between photographs. Other factors that may be associated with the observed reduction in bar area but not assessed in this reconnaissance level study include changes in the sediment and hydrology regimes of these rivers over the analysis period. In tidal reaches, unit bar area increased on the Tillamook and Nehalem Rivers (98.0 and 14.7 percent, respectively), but declined a net 24.2 to 83.1 percent in the other four tidal reaches. Net increases in bar area in the Tidal Tillamook and Nehalem Reaches were possibly attributable to tidal differences between the photographs as well as sediment deposition behind log booms and pile structures on the Tillamook River between 1939 and 1967. The armoring ratio (ratio of the median grain sizes of a bar's surface and subsurface layers) was 1.6 at Lower Waldron Bar on the Miami River, tentatively indicating a relative balance between transport capacity and sediment supply at this location. Armoring ratios, however, ranged from 2.4 to 5.5 at sites on the Trask, Wilson, Kilchis, and Nehalem Rivers; these coarse armor layers probably reflect limited bed-material supply at these sites. On the basis of mapping results, measured armoring ratios, and channel cross section surveys, preliminary conclusions are that the fluvial reaches on the Tillamook, Trask, Kilchis, and Nehalem Rivers are currently sediment supply-limited in terms of bed material - that is, the transport capacity of the channel generally exceeds the supply of bed material. The relation between transport capacity and sediment is more ambiguous for the fluvial reaches on the Wilson and Miami Rivers, but transport-limited conditions are likely for at least parts of these reaches. Some of these reaches have possibly evolved from sediment supply-limited to transport-limited over the last several decades in response to changing basin and climate conditions. Because of exceedingly low gradients, all the tidal reaches are transport-limited. Bed material in these reaches, however, is primarily sand and finer grain-size material and probably transported as suspended load from upstream reaches. These reaches will be most susceptible to watershed conditions affecting the supply and transport of fine sediment. Compared to basins on the southwestern Oregon coast, such as the Chetco and Rogue River basins, these six basins likely transport overall less gravel bed material. Although tentative in the absence of actual transport measurements, this conclusion is supported by the much lower area and frequency of bars and longer tidal reaches along all the northcoast rivers examined in this study. Previous studies suggest that the expansive and largely unvegetated bars visible in the 1939 photographs are primarily associated with voluminous sedimentation starting soon after the first Tillamook Burn fire in 1933. However, USGS studies of temporal bar trends in other Oregon coastal rivers unaffected by the Tillamook Burn show similar declines in bar area over approximately the same analysis period. In the Umpqua and Chetco River basins, historical declines in bar area are associated with long-term decreases in flood magnitude. Other factors may include changes in the type and volume of large wood and riparian vegetation. Further characterization of hydrology patterns in these basins and possible linkages with climate factors related to flood peaks, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, could support inferences of expected future changes in vegetation establishment and channel planform and profile. More detailed investigations of bed-material transport rates and channel morphology would support assessments of lateral and vertical channel condition and longitudinal trends in bed material. Such assessments would be most practical for the fluvial study areas on the Wilson, Kilchis, Miami, and Nehalem Rivers and relevant to several ongoing management and ecological issues pertaining to sand and gravel transport. Tidal reaches may also be logical subjects for indepth analysis where studies would be more relevant to the deposition and transport of fine sediment (and associated channel and riparian conditions and processes) rather than coarse bed material.

Oregon↗

A holistic modelling approach to project the evolution of inlet-interrupted coastlines over the 21st century

Approximately one quarter of the World’s sandy beaches, most of which are interrupted by tidal inlets, are eroding. Understanding the long-term (50-100 year) evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts in a changing climate is therefore of great importance for coastal zone planners and managers. This study therefore focuses on the development and piloting of an innovative model that can simulate the climate-change driven evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts at 50-100 year time scales, while taking into account the contributions from catchment-estuary-coastal systems in a holistic manner. In this new model, the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts is determined by: (1) computing the variation of total sediment volume exchange between the inlet-estuary system and its adjacent coast, and (2) distributing the computed sediment volume along the inlet-interrupted coast as a spatially and temporally varying quantity. The exchange volume, as computed here, consists of three major components: variation in fluvial sediment supply; basin (or estuarine) infilling due to the sea-level rise-induced increase in accommodation space; and estuarine sediment volume change due to variations in river discharge. To pilot the model, it is here applied to three different catchment-estuary-coastal systems: the Alsea estuary (Oregon, USA), Dyfi estuary (Wales, UK), and Kalutara inlet (Sri Lanka). Results indicate that all three systems will experience sediment deficits by 2100 (i.e. sediment importing estuaries). However, processes and system characteristics governing the total sediment exchange volume, and thus coastline change, vary markedly among the systems due to differences in geomorphic settings and projected climatic conditions. These results underline the importance of accounting for the different governing processes when assessing the future evolution of inlet-interrupted coastlines.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

Climate warming could reduce runoff significantly in New England, USA

The relation between mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP) and evapotranspiration (ET) for 38 forested watersheds was determined to evaluate the potential increase in ET and resulting decrease in stream runoff that could occur following climate change and lengthening of the growing season. The watersheds were all predominantly forested and were located in eastern North America, along a gradient in MAT from 3.5??C in New Brunswick, CA, to 19.8??C in northern Florida. Regression analysis for MAT versus ET indicated that along this gradient ET increased at a rate of 2.85 cm??C-1 increase in MAT (??0.96 cm??C-1, 95% confidence limits). General circulation models (GCM) using current mid-range emission scenarios project global MAT to increase by about 3??C during the 21st century. The inferred, potential, reduction in annual runoff associated with a 3??C increase in MAT for a representative small coastal basin and an inland mountainous basin in New England would be 11-13%. Percentage reductions in average daily runoff could be substantially larger during the months of lowest flows (July-September). The largest absolute reductions in runoff are likely to be during April and May with smaller reduction in the fall. This seasonal pattern of reduction in runoff is consistent with lengthening of the growing season and an increase in the ratio of rain to snow. Future increases in water use efficiency (WUE), precipitation, and cloudiness could mitigate part or all of this reduction in runoff but the full effects of changing climate on WUE remain quite uncertain as do future trends in precipitation and cloudiness.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology↗

Pilot inventory of mammals, reptiles, and amphibians, Golden Gate National Recreation Area, California, 1990-1997

The United States Geological Survey Golden Gate Field Station conducted a baseline inventory of terrestrial vertebrates within the Golden Gate National Recreation Area (GGNRA), Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo Counties, California between 1990 and 1997. We established 456 permanent study plots in 6 major park habitats, including grassland, coastal scrub, riparian woodland, coastal wetland, broad-leaved evergreen forest, and needle-leaved evergreen forest. We tested multiple inventory methods, including live traps, track plate stations, and artificial cover boards, across all years and habitats. In most years, sampling occurred in 3-4 primary sampling sessions between July and September. In 1994, additional sampling occurred in February and May in conjunction with an assessment of Hantavirus exposure in deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus). Overall, we detected 32 mammal, 14 reptile, and 6 amphibian species during 25,222 trap-nights of effort. The deer mouse-the most abundant species detected--accounted for 67% of total captures. We detected the Federal Endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) at one coastal wetland plot in 1992. This project represents the first phase in the development of a comprehensive terrestrial vertebrate inventory and monitoring program for GGNRA. This report summarizes data on relative abundance, frequency of occurrence, distribution across habitat types, and trap success for terrestrial vertebrates detected during this 7-year effort. It includes comprehensive descriptions of the inventory methods and sampling strategies employed during this survey and is intended to help guide the park in the implementation of future longterm ecological monitoring programs.

California↗